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AJA Weekly Recap

2025 | March 31

John,


Here is your weekly market commentary. We hope you enjoy receiving our newsletters. If you have any questions about the following content, please let us know!


- The AJA Team

This Week….

  • The Markets
  • Market Corrections & Recoveries
  • Silver Lining

The Weekly Focus


Think About It

“Courage is the price that life exacts for granting peace.”

 

Amelia Earhart, Aviation pioneer

The Markets

Stocks Decline



After posting gains on Monday and Tuesday, the major U.S. stock indexes turned negative the next three days to finish with overall weekly declines ranging from around 1% to nearly 3%. For the S&P 500, it was the fifth negative result in six weeks. 


Stocks fell on Friday after a monthly gauge of U.S. consumer sentiment recorded the lowest reading since November 2022. The University of Michigan’s survey found that respondents have increasingly come to expect inflation to worsen. Moreover, two-thirds of respondents expect unemployment to rise – the highest proportion since 2009.


Inflation moved further above the U.S. Federal Reserve’s 2.0% long-term target, based on Friday’s reading from the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index. Core PCE inflation excluding food and energy prices rose at an annual rate of 2.8% in February—above economists’ consensus forecast and above the previous month’s figure. 


The U.S. government’s latest estimate of fourth-quarter economic growth found that GDP expanded at a 2.4% annual rate—slightly above an earlier estimate but below the third quarter’s 3.1% figure. Looking ahead, the first estimate of 1st quarter 2025 GDP is scheduled to be released on April 30, with most economists expecting annual growth to come in below 2.0%.


The new week could again put global trade tensions in focus, as President Donald Trump recently said that he expects to announce plans on Wednesday for the United States to impose reciprocal tariffs on key trading partners. The scope of any such tariff increases could hinge on trade reports that are due to the president on Tuesday from his secretaries of commerce and treasury.


The next monthly labor market report due out on Friday will show whether the moderate slowdown in jobs growth seen in the first two months of 2025 extended into March. In February, the economy generated 151,000 new jobs, up slightly from 125,000 in January but well below the figures in the last two months of 2024. 


Source: John Hancock Investment Management 

Market Corrections & Recoveries

The S&P 500 is near correction territory, defined as a decline of 10% from the prior peak, and the Nasdaq has been in a correction for nearly a month. Economic uncertainty has led to many sizable market swings over the past several weeks, including days where major stock market indices decline by one or two percentage points.


As the chart above shows, stock market corrections occur on a regular basis and average 14.3% since World War II. Despite this, major indices have historically recovered in a few months with rebounds often occurring when they’re least expected. Recent examples include the stock market rebounds in mid-2020 during the pandemic, in late 2022 following the tech-led bear market, in early 2023 after the banking crisis, and throughout countless other examples.


This is relevant in today’s market since the correction in the S&P 500 is relative to its recent February all-time high. When zooming out, the stock market is only back to where it was last September. So, while unpleasant, it’s important to keep these recent moves in perspective.

The Silver Lining of Market Downturns

Volatile markets are challenging. Watching the value of your assets bounce higher and lower can be frustrating. In times like these, it can be helpful to focus on the opportunities that can be created by market volatility. One of those opportunities is tax-loss harvesting.


Investors “harvest” tax losses by selling an asset for less than they purchased it. Unfortunately, not every investment delivers stellar returns. Almost every investor has either owned an asset that loses value due to company underperformance or a market downturn. When the asset is sold at a lower value than its purchase price, the investor realizes a capital loss.


From a tax perspective, losses are quite valuable. They can help:


1. Minimize capital gains tax. Capital losses can be used to offset capital gains, dollar for dollar. For example, if an investor sells shares of Company A for a gain of $1 and sells shares of Company B for a loss of $1, then the loss offsets the gain.


2. Reduce taxable income today. When tax losses aren’t used to offset gains, the losses can reduce taxable income by up to $3,000. So, if an investor has a capital loss of $6,000 and a capital gain of $3,000, the capital loss could offset the capital gain and the $3,000 loss that is leftover could be used to reduce the investor’s taxable income.


3. Reduce capital gains and taxable income tomorrow. When capital losses are greater than capital gains and income reductions combined, the extra losses can be carried forward and used to offset capital gains and taxable income in the future.


The key to tax loss harvesting is that the money from the asset sale must be invested in a new opportunity – perhaps capitalizing on the chance to invest in a strong company at an attractive price, which is another benefit of market downturns. In general, the new investment should fill a similar role in the investor’s asset allocation strategy to the investment that was sold.


The silver lining of market downturns is that investment losses can be tax wins.

AJ Advisors
www.ajadvice.com

Phone: (615) 709-8709

Fax: (615) 505-3306

eMoney

Charles Schwab

Advyzon

John Stauffer, CFP®
Partner

Andrew Quinn, CFP®
Partner

Emily Triano

Operations Manager


emily@ajadvice.com


Maya Laws

Operations Associate


maya@ajadvice.com


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