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BOOKS AND ESSAYS
Immoderate Greatness: Why Civilizations Fail by William Ophuls: If you’re looking for an uplifting take on the current and future outlook for civilization, this isn’t it. Immoderate Greatness posits that our hubris (immoderate greatness), driven by our desire for comfort and excess, is causing us to burn through ecological resources at an unsustainable rate. This, the author feels, is particularly foolhardy as it’s the same mistake numerous societies made in the past. And lest we think technology will be our saviour, he conversely believes, as has been the case throughout history, technology will accelerate our decline.
Personally, I think the author underestimates the potential of technology to reverse the trend of ecological erosion, but I’d be lying if I said this book hasn’t made me think a little harder about the position we’re putting ourselves in.
The Great Wave: Price Revolutions and the Rhythm of History by David Hackett Fischer: A thorough study of the four price revolutions (late 12th to early 14th Century, late 15th to early 16th Century, 18th Century, and the 20th Century to present day) that occurred over the last eight centuries.
The author found that these price revolutions occurred in similar stages: a slow beginning with rising prosperity; a surge and decline; a period of discovering and institutionalizing inflation; growing instability; and, finally, a crisis leading to falling prices and equilibrium.
Each subsequent price revolution experienced higher rates of inflation, from 0.5% annually in the first wave to 4% or more annually in the 20th Century. However, they counterintuitively became less catastrophic from a human suffering point of view, but more sweeping in regard to transforming social structures and political systems.
Despite the benign description above, the suffering, especially by the poor, was horrific. I often found it hard to read the details, particularly for the earlier price revolutions. Price increases ate into the already meagre income of the poor, which on a few occasions was followed by multiple years of unprecedented droughts, all while countries warred with each other. Then, just when it seemed like it couldn’t get any worse, a plague ravaged its way through the already emaciated population.
The Fate of Empires and the Search for Survival by Sir John Glubb: Fascinating essay on the rise and fall of 11 empires dating back to the Assyrian Empire in 859 B.C.
My big takeaways were:
- We don’t learn from history because we don’t look at enough of it.
- Over the last 3,000 years, most empires lasted a remarkably similar period of time: 250 years, or about 25 generations.
- Most empires went through similar stages:
- The Age of Pioneers (outburst)
- The Age of Conquests
- The Age of Commerce
- The Age of Affluence
- The Age of Intellect
- The Age of Decadence (caused by)
- Periods of wealth and power that lasted too long
- Selfishness
- Love of money
- The loss of a sense of duty
- While the rise of empires are often similar, their declines often occur from different causes.
- Society would be better off if history was broadly taught and understood.
As a side note, The Fate of Empires was written almost 50 years ago by a man in his elder years. So the tone and viewpoint aren’t quite in lockstep with our societal norms. And, of course, much has been learned since the ’70s. Given that, if anyone has come across other books or essays containing lessons learned from vast periods of history, please reach out to me and let me know.
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