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PDF | Research | Week of Feb 27, 2023

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April 27-28, 2023 | The Diplomat Resort, Fort Lauderdale, FL

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Quote of the Week

The market has had a couple of months saying ‘maybe we’re back to

being back to normal, don’t worry about it’. We don’t think that’s right.

– Karen Karniol-Tambour, co-chief investment office for sustainability,

Bridgewater Associates.

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Letter From Tokyo

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This past week we visited our clients and friends in Japan. The last time we did, three months before Covid, that nation’s GDP had ended modestly down 0.2%. During 2020 it plunged 4.3%; about twice as sluggish as the US.


Japan’s economy rebounded strongly in 2021 to 2.1% and slowed to 1.1% last year. Projections for this year are settling in around the average growth for the past two years. Analysts say the nation’s birth rate – down annually since 2010 – contributes to slower growth.


Japan is struggling with the same issues of all developed economies: supply chain concerns, inflation and commodity prices. Although compared to the US and much of Europe, Japan’s consumer price index of 3-4% is not as elevated. That’s allowed the BOJ to keep rates at a much lower level, around 0.5%...

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Chart of the Week

Rising Sun

Japan’s quarterly GDP has bounced around since Covid, narrowly avoiding recession.

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Source: The Daily Shot

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Stat of the Week

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Loan Stats at a Glance 

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Contact: Marina Lukatsky / S&P Global Market Intelligence

PDI Picks

Few signs of waning appetite

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While economic pressures grab the headlines, private debt is forging ahead with investor support apparently remaining solid...

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Leveraged Loan Insight & Analysis

US private credit fundraising

totals over US$35bn in 1Q23

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1Q23 has been a busy one for private debt fundraising. Already this quarter there has been US$35.8bn of US middle market private credit fundraising, on pace to log the highest level since 2Q22’s US$51.4bn total...

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Contact: David Puchowski/ Refinitiv LPC

The Pulse of Private Equity

Only 13% of LP dollars went to new PE firms

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Only 13% of PE fundraising dollars went to inexperienced managers in 2022, according to PitchBook’s 2022 Annual Global Private Market Fundraising Report. That’s the smallest ratio we’ve recorded, though the 2020 ratio...

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Contact: Alex Lykken / PitchBook

Covenant Trends 

Share of New-Issue Institutional Loans

with a Pick-Your-Poison Provision

by Quarter, PE-Backed vs All

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Contact: Steven Miller / Covenant Review

High-Yield Bond Statistics

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Weekly fund flows source: Lipper
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DL Deals: News & Analysis

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Lofty yields — 12%—

and little supply to pressure unitranche spreads

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Unitranche yields in the KBRA DLD Private Data portfolio averaged 12% for the 90-day period ended Jan. 31, up from 6.6% a year ago. The current reading is the highest in our two-year, $270 billion library and potentially...

Contact: Kelly Thompson /Direct Lending Deals

Private Debt Intelligence

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Mezzanine debt fundraising hits record in Q1

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Mezzanine debt set a new record for first-quarter fundraising in 2023, with $20.7bn raised in just two months. This amount surpassed the combined total of the previous seven first quarters, which was $18.7bn...

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Contact: Caroline Rolle / Preqin

Debtwire Middle-Market

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Source: Cliffwater Direct Lending Index and BofA Merrill Lynch US High Yield Effective Yield

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Contact: Hema Oza / Debtwire 

Middle Market Deal Terms at a Glance

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Contact: Stefan Shaffer / SPP Capital Partners

Select Deals in the Market

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This publication is a service to our clients and friends. It is designed only to give general information on the market developments actually covered. It is not intended to be a comprehensive summary of recent developments or to suggest parameters for any prospective financing opportunity.