A new PONARS Eurasia Commentary by Nurlan Aliyev analyzes Ukraine’s asymmetric war against Russia and finds that Ukrainians’ will and ingenuity played an outsize role in the invasion's early days.

The US and Russia need to start talking before it’s too late, argue Samuel Charap and Jeremy Shapiro in a NYTimes op-ed, saying that the West and Moscow have no mutually acceptable outcome to the conflict and are spiraling into steeper escalation. Do Russians Care About the War in Ukraine️? Peter Rutland finds that despite polls showing overwhelming support for the war, the dominant mood is one of indifference.

By allowing Ukraine to export grain, Russia could be looking for softer sanctions or a chance to reap the benefits of becoming an internationally significant gatekeeper, suggests Nikolay Petrov. Kirill Rogov uncovers the invisible effects of sanctions on Russia, outlining how authoritarian regimes redistribute costs, protect elite cadres, and suppress discontent by pitting winners against losers.

Pavel Baev describes Russia’s offensive in Donbas as “deadlocked” and suggests that the current focus in Kherson is exposing their "obsolescence, ineptness, corruption, and severe manpower shortages.” Richard Arnold writes that Russia’s increasing use of Cossack reservists indicates manpower issues. He also calls attention to the plight of the region's Ahiska Turks/Meskhetians, one of the most persecuted minorities ever.

The rhetoric from Russian elites is very close to what we would call “fascist,” says Marlene Laruelle, but Moscow’s “party of hawks” does not represent the whole state. Volodymyr Ishchenko adds that the frequent use of the “fascist” label on both sides in the war has discredited the term. Natalia Lamberova and Konstantin Sonin find new evidence that although authoritarian regimes, with their abilities to implement restrictive measures, appear to be well-equipped to handle something like a pandemic, they are actually ill-suited to deal with public health challenges.

Strong civil society accomplishments in Ukraine so far will serve as a template for the nationwide rebuilding efforts to come, says Oleksander Sushko. Ryhor Nizhnikau and Kristiina Silvan reviewed the 2014–2019 reorganization of the Belarusian Republican Youth Union, finding that though it aimed to promote participatory authoritarianism, it ended up unleashing Belarusian youths’ agency ahead of the Belarusian crisis of 2020.

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NEW BOOK: Enemies Within: The Global Politics of Fifth Columns by Harris Mylonas and Scott Radnitz (editors) offers perspectives to better understand contemporary challenges, including chauvinistic nationalism, weakening of democratic norms, and persecution of minorities and political dissidents.

The Institute for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies (IERES) is seeking applications for two residential fellowships for Ukrainian scholars.

Twenty non-residential year-long positions for Ukrainian scholars are offered at the Byrnes Russian and East European Institute at Indiana University.

The Foreign Policy Research Institute and partners, including the Institute for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies (IERES), announce an International Crisis Management certificate course for Ukrainian university students.