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Weekly Analyst Review

19 April 2023

Bottom Line Up Front

In mid-March, hundreds of non-Papuan Indonesians residing in Yahukimo Regency, Highland Papua Province, were evacuated with the help of the military's Hercules aircraft. This aircraft purportedly also carried troops and military equipment.


This evacuation came on the heels of the Free Papua Movement (OPM) making good on their threat against foreign pilots flying into Papua. According to local sources, the evacuation stemmed from rumors, stating an imminent military operation was to be conducted in the area against the Free Papua Movement (OPM).


OPM has long demanded independence from Indonesia and tensions between the militant group and the Indonesian government have been escalating since the 07 February destruction of a Susi Air plane, which also resulted in the kidnapping of its New Zealander pilot, Philip Mark Mehrtens. Threats and attacks against both foreigners and Indonesian security forces have continually increased in both frequency and intensity.


On 15 February 2023, OPM released a video and photos of Philips Max Mehrtens and in this video, the New Zealander pilot was shown being surrounded by a small group of fighters who appeared to be armed with a Pindad SS1-V1 rifle and two SS2-V1 assault rifles, one with a 40mm Pindad SPG1-V4 UBGL, while the other indigenous rebels appear to be armed with bow and arrows.


A week later on 21 February, a notable advancement in the number of fighters and weaponry was seen in a video circulating on social networks, depicting a much larger group of fighters, approximately 100, belonging to the Free Papua Movement (OPM), armed with an M1 Carbine rifle, a Pindad SS1-V1 rifle, homemade rifles (ghost guns), and a Pindad P1 pistol, among others.

By the beginning of April, OPM attacks noticeably escalated. Contrary to the 'short-circuit' claims by Indonesian authorities, on 11 April 2023, OPM released a video, claiming responsibility for the arson attack that took place two days earlier on a Regent office building located in Kimupugi Village, Kamu District, Dogiyai Regency, Central Papua. Again, the militants shown in the video appear to be armed with a Pindad SS1-V1 rifle, as well as craft-made (ghost gun) submachine guns and rifles.


While the military operation against OPM has garnered a few arrests, the CTO has ended very badly for the Indonesian military. Their attempt to rescue New Zealander pilot, Philip Mark Mehrtens on 15 April 2023 fell remarkably short. OPM militants ambushed the Indonesian Army, claiming to have killed 13 Indonesian soldiers during the ambush and capturing and executing 9 others.


Mehrtens is still being held captive by his OPM kidnappers and is said to be in declining health.

Other Developments

TRAC Incident Report:

People’s Defence Forces (PDF) Mass-Producing Their Own

3D-Printed Weapons in Myanmar

Screenshot of video of the 3D-printed weapons.

The People’s Defence Forces (PDF) are known for targeting Military Junta forces from afar through drive-by shootings and RPG assaults so as to minimize casualties on their side. The Junta took over the country in a coup in February 2021 and resistance against them is widespread.


It has come to light that the PDF, now the biggest and most widespread rebel group in Myanmar, is mass-producing their own 3D-printed weapons. It should be noted that this is not the first time the militant group has been seen with "ghost guns." In January 2022, the group released images of fighters posing with “ghost guns” in Shan State, Myanmar.


The cost of 3D printing machines and materials is somewhat of a double-edged sword. While the cost to produce 3D-printed weapons would likely still be much cheaper than buying weapons on the black market, for a relatively poverty-stricken population, the price of 3D printers and materials would still be cost-prohibitive.


The one major advantage of 3D-printed weapons, better known as "ghost guns," is that there is no record of the gun. Instructions for printing 3D guns are widely available on the internet and once a group has access to the printing machine and materials, there is no stopping them; and since the guns are printed by the users themselves, they are untraceable.


To that end, the PDF has previously shown their capability in the use of more advanced weaponry. Throughout February 2022, the PDF had targeted key military locations in Myanmar, including a police station and a training camp with weaponized modified surveillance drones. Now that they are mass-producing their own guns, one has to ask - what is to stop them from mass-producing 3D weaponized drones?

TRAC Incident Report:

Islamic State West Africa (ISWA/Wilayat Gharb Afriqiyah) Two Roadside IEDs, in Less than 24 Hours, Kill a Total of 9 Soldiers

on the N1 in Djalori, Diffa Region, Niger

Vehicle damaged by IED on 12 April 2023

On 13 April 2023, an Islamic State West Africa (ISWA) roadside IED killed seven soldiers on the N1 in Djalori, Diffa Region, Niger. Less than 24 hours later, another suspected ISWA roadside IED exploded on the same road, killing two more soldiers and injuring six others.


Although Djalori had not been previously targeted, Niger’s Diffa Region is highly volatile and ISWA is adept at targeting strategic roads with IEDs. Just four days earlier, another ISWA IED went off near Diffa city, the capital of the region and it has to be noted that the N1 on which Djalori sits, leads straight into Diffa city.


There is more than 1000km between the two locations where the respective IEDs were deployed and if ISWA can take control of this road, it would be a major strategic win because this road, the N1, runs parallel to the border with Nigeria. It is no coincidence that just 3 days prior, ISWA in Nigeria expanded to Jigawa state which gave them an uninterrupted presence in all the Nigerian states that border Niger and to which the N1 runs parallel.


ISWA's expansion is a clear indication of the logistical importance of the Niger-Nigeria border from Sokoto State in the West, to Borno State in the East. This distance is roughly 1050 km [653 mi].

TRAC Incident Report:

Two Moorish Sovereign Citizens Arrested for Child Cruelty in Evans, Columbia County, Georgia, United States

Hassan Sahih Bey (30) and Tinka El (25)

On 06 April 2023, Columbia County, Georgia Sheriff’s Office arrested Hassan Sahih Bey (30) and Tinka El (25) on three counts of counts of Cruelty to Children by Deprivation of Necessary Sustenance and one count of Giving False Name, Address, or Birthday to Law Enforcement. Both defendants have been denied bond at this time.


Authorities were first alerted to the suspected child cruelty by a representative with the Department of Family and Children’s Services (DFACS), when they were called to the pediatric ICU unit of the Children’s Hospital of Georgia. One of the children had been hospitalized and placed on a respirator due to rickets disease, commonly caused by lack of Vitamin D or calcium. The child was said to also have bone malformation due to malnutrition. The couple’s two other children between 1 week-old and 1 year-old were also found to have signs of malnutrition.


Upon their arrest, Bey and El claimed to be adherents to the Moorish Sovereign Citizens movement. The Moorish sovereign citizens are a conglomeration of organizations and single entities that split off of the anti-government sovereign citizens movement in the 1990s. The Moors believe that African Americans are an elite class with special rights that allows them to benefit from sovereign immunity from all federal and state authority.


However, the tragedy of this case cannot hide behind ideology as this is sheer cruelty at the basic human level. Should these two defendants choose to adhere to the tactics of the Sovereign Citizens, we can expect to see undue court filings to mire the case through paper terrorism.

On Our Radar:

TRAC Incident Report:

Al-Shabaab Conducts Complex Assault Against Ugandan Troops, Killing 9, Janali, Lower Shabelle, Somalia

TRAC Incident Report: Palestinian Gunman Opens Fire Against a Driving-By Car, Injuring Two Israelis in the Sheik Jarrah/Shimon Hatzadik Neighborhood of Jerusalem, Israel 

TRAC Incident Report: Rapid Support Forces (RSF) Release Video Claiming to Have Taken the City of Geneina

[Al Junaynah],

West Darfur, Sudan

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