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PDF | Research | Week of Oct 14 2024

Quote of the Week

“These results are consistent with a soft landing.”

– Jeremy Barnum, chief financial officer, JP Morgan Chase, on its 3Q performance. 

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2024 Private Debt Survey


Institutional investors, RIAs, and financial advisors: We want to hear from you! We invite you to share your views on private debt and today’s environment by completing a brief 2-minute survey. We look forward to sharing the results with you in an upcoming Lead Left issue.

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Everything Happens So Much (Part Two)

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Investors are challenged today with so much data and distraction coming at them from every angle. This makes it tough to see the big picture, which looks pretty good. 


After a dramatic 50 bp chop to the Fed funds rate barely two weeks ago, the mood has swung around once again. Now it’s more like,“What’s the rush?” Indeed, several panelists at the Greenwich Economic Forum last week suggested rates were at a good level, keeping inflation at bay and allowing the economy’s momentum to continue. 


Our experience has been that most predictions of risks have the timing exactly wrong: buy when you should be selling, sell when you should be buying. Those who say credit is risky, for example, because interest rates are high, will miss the best of both worlds. Debt costs will improve for borrowers, but all-in yields for investors will remain well above historic levels...

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Chart of the Week

All of the Above

Investors expect modestly lower credit spreads, no change, and some widening.

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Source: The Daily Shot, PitchBook/LCD


(Past performance is no guarantee of future results.)

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PDI Picks

Munich’s key talking points

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Read PDI’s Report: Golden age talk tempered by concern over recent vintages


Stress, pricing pressure and resilience were among the characteristics of private debt referred to in the German city.

This week, Private Debt Investor was hosting its annual Germany Forum in Munich. You can read here about our coverage of the so-called ‘golden era’ and whether the label is justified or not. Below are some of the event’s other talking points...

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Leveraged Loan Insight & Analysis

US LBO Capital Structures: In world of high valuations, increased senior leverage and equity prevail in 3Q24

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While pro forma leverage and equity contributions for US large cap LBO transactions have remained elevated, and continue to move higher and parallel with valuations despite higher rates, capital structures have evolved accordingly...

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Contact: Chris Piccirillo / LSEG

The Pulse of Private Equity

PE take-private deal activity

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In Q3 2024, take-private deal activity plummeted from the two-year high recorded in Q2. Deal count declined from 31 to 18, and deal value plunged from $71.6 billion to $43.9 billion...

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Contact: Garrett Black / PitchBook

KBRA Direct Lending Deals: News & Analysis

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TTM Default Volume, Count

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Contact: Eric Rosenthal / KBRA DLD

Middle Market & Private Credit

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Net Asset Downgrades Ease in September

for US BSL CLOs

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Fitch Ratings-rated U.S. CLOs backed by broadly syndicated loans (BSL) experienced just two net downgrades in the underlying assets – the fewest in the latest trailing twelve-month (TTM) period. The TTM period averaged about 12 net downgrades per month, but the last two months saw less than half that average...

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Contact: Brad Hamner / FitchRatings

Covenant Trends 

Percentage of Loans with F&C Tranche Growers

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Contact: Steven Miller / Covenant Review

High-Yield Bond Statistics

Launched Volume

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New-issue Yields

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Weekly Fund Flows

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Weekly fund flows source: Lipper

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Contact: Robert Polenberg / LevFin Insights

Debtwire Middle-Market

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The blue line in the chart is the current dividend yield of the *VanEck BDC Income ETF (currently at 11.3% as of 14 October) that tracks the overall performance of publicly traded business development companies (BDCs, are lenders to privately held middle-market businesses that tend to be below investment grade or not rated, with most lending comprising of senior secured loans). The brown line displays the BofA Merrill Lynch US High Yield (currently at 6.9% as of 14 October, down from the highs of 9.5% in October 2023), which tracks the performance of USD denominated below investment grade corporate debt publicly issued in the US...

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Contact: Suneet Chandvani/ Debtwire 

Private Debt Intelligence

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Private debt fundraising in Europe falls despite rapid pace of deployment

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Read more in Preqin’s Insights+ Report: Alternatives in Europe 2024


After two record fundraising years in 2022 (€54.1bn) and 2023 (€71.0bn) for private debt, there has been a sharp decline in capital raised by Europe-based managers. In the first half of 2024, just €13.9bn was raised from 18 funds, lagging the 75 raised in 2022, and the 67 in 2023...

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Contact: William Bennett-LynchPreqin

October Update: Middle Market Deal Terms at a Glance

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Contact: Stefan Shaffer / SPP Capital Partners

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This publication is a service to our clients and friends. It is designed only to give general information on the market developments actually covered. It is not intended to be a comprehensive summary of recent developments or to suggest parameters for any prospective financing opportunity.