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PDF | Research | Week of November 27, 2023

Quote of the Week

“Everyone in the markets has to get their head around the fact that this may be another year of negative returns for bond funds.”

– Bob Michele, chief investment officer, JP Morgan Asset Management.

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The New Paradigm (Second of a Series)

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The New Paradigm (Third of a Series)

The confusion around differences between public and private credit dynamics has been compounded by the rapid growth of the illiquid asset class. The middle market was infrequently on investors’ radars until it began to rival broadly syndicated loans and high-yield bonds in size.


At $1.5 trillion, private credit has caught up with both, and by some estimates will more than double in the next several years. That kind of popularity attracts an increasing number of investors (“Wow, what’s this?”) historically in large-cap, liquid strategies. Such a raised profile also has raised eyebrows with regulators and the media (“Wow, should we be worried?”).


These reactions are perfectly understandable. Anytime significant dollars are entering any investment category in a seeming hurry there’s room for deeper scrutiny. Such was the case with SPACs back in early 2021...

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Chart of the Week

60/40 Hindsight

The traditional equities and fixed-income model is under-performing the historic average. 

Source: WSJ, Leuthold Group

(Past performance is no guarantee of future results.)

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Stat of the Week

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Loan Stats at a Glance 

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Contact: Marina Lukatsky / PitchBook LCD

PDI Picks

Fund managers will be put to the test

In a challenging new environment, reporting and investing processes are likely to come under greater scrutiny.



“Reputations will be made and lost in the next few years, and character will matter as much as technical brilliance,” one of a select group of investors told Private Debt Investor...

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Leveraged Loan Insight & Analysis

BDC credit quality continues to hold up

BDC credit quality held up well across different metrics in the most recent quarter. The weighted average non-accrual rate for public...

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Contact: CJ Doherty / Refinitiv LPC

The Pulse of Private Equity

A symbol for the PE market

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Buyout multiples have barely budged in 2023 and remain above the 11x threshold, according to PitchBook’s latest Quantitative Perspectives report, The Waiting Game...

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Contact: Alex Lykken / PitchBook

DL Deals: News & Analysis

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Year-to-Date Default Volume, Count

Contact: Eric Rosenthal / KBRA DLD

Middle Market & Private Credit

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Fitch’s Privately Monitored Middle Market Portfolio Overview, 3Q23

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Upgrades/downgrades in Fitch’s PMM portfolio are generally skewed toward downgrades, as issuer ratings can be...

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Covenant Trends 

Average EBITDA Adjustment Cap for Synergies & Cost Savings (Sponsored vs. Non-Sponsored)

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Contact: Steven Miller / Covenant Review

High-Yield Bond Statistics

Launched Volume

New-issue Yields

Weekly Fund Flows

Weekly fund flows source: Lipper

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Private Debt Intelligence

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North American PD deal value in energy and utilities sector highest in five years 

Private debt deal activity in North America decreased in 2023 as aggregate deal value fell to $42.3bn in 2023 year-to-date (YTD) from $172.5bn in 2022...

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Contact: Megan Harris / Preqin

Debtwire Middle-Market

The blue line in the chart is the current dividend yield of the *VanEck BDC Income ETF (currently at 10.7%...

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Contact: Suneet Chandvani / Debtwire 

November Update: Middle Market Deal Terms at a Glance

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Contact: Stefan Shaffer / SPP Capital Partners

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This publication is a service to our clients and friends. It is designed only to give general information on the market developments actually covered. It is not intended to be a comprehensive summary of recent developments or to suggest parameters for any prospective financing opportunity.