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Quotes of the Day:
“You sway a thousand men by appealing to their prejudices quicker than you can convince one many by logic.
- Robert A. Heinlein
"Chess has only two outcomes: draw and checkmate. The objective of the game . . . is total victory or defeat-and the battle is conducted head-on, in the center of the board. The aim of Gois relative advantage; the game is played all over the board, and the objective is to increase one's options and reduce those of the adversary. The goal is less victory than persistent strategic progress. "
- Dr. Henry Kissinger, On China
"What man does not understand he fears; and what he fears, he tends to destroy."
- William Butler Yeats
1. N. Korea unresponsive to routine inter-Korean liaison, military hotline calls for 4th day
2. S. Korea kicks off Hwarang defense drills
3. S. Korea to launch new frigate with enhanced anti-sub capabilities
4. Intelligence leak on U.S. spying on allies
5. CIA taps allies including Korea and Britain
6. Korea to 'consult' with U.S. over CIA spying report over Ukrainian arms supply
7. Inside the international sting operation to catch North Korean crypto hackers
8. S. Korea to seek appropriate steps from U.S. after verification of leaked documents
9. Suspected North Korean smuggling ships visited Japan 38 times: Nikkei study
10. S. Korea, U.S., Japan to hold trilateral defense talks in U.S. this week
11. Yoon's office to request 'appropriate measures' from US over spying fiasco
12. US spying report feared to overshadow Yoon-Biden summit
13. NK's underwater drones mean more defense costs for Seoul: analysts
14. Nuclear North Korea Facing Another Famine
15. Number of North Korea’s Nuclear Warheads
16. N. Korea orders people to record their military support activities in little notebooks
1. N. Korea unresponsive to routine inter-Korean liaison, military hotline calls for 4th day
Kim continues to play hard to get. Note that this is not something new. As noted in the article below there have been longer periods of no contact.
Again, we should just stop making the calls and let the north intiaitie when they are ready.
(LEAD) N. Korea unresponsive to routine inter-Korean liaison, military hotline calls for 4th day | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 김수연 · April 10, 2023
(ATTN: RECASTS headline, lead; UPDATES with more details throughout)
SEOUL, April 10 (Yonhap) -- North Korea remained unresponsive to daily routine calls with South Korea through an inter-Korean liaison communication channel and a military hotline for the fourth straight day Monday, according to the South's government.
The North did not answer routine opening phone calls at 9 a.m. after it stopped responding to calls from the South on Friday morning, according to Seoul's unification ministry. Calls from the liaison hotline do not take place on weekends.
The two Koreas are supposed to hold phone calls twice a day, at 9 a.m. and 5 p.m., via their joint liaison channel.
Calls through a military hotline also went unanswered for the fourth straight day Monday, according to the South's defense ministry.
It is not known why the North remains unresponsive to such daily calls with the South.
But there is the possibility that the secretive regime is intentionally refusing to answer the calls to protest joint military drills between South Korea and the United States or the latest release by the ministry of a report on North Korea's human rights.
Daily phone calls via inter-Korean communication channels went unanswered in the past due to technical reasons. Last June, Pyongyang did not respond to a regular hotline call apparently due to technical glitches caused by heavy rains.
In July 2021, the North restored the inter-Korean hotline, about a year after it severed the contact channel in protest of Seoul activists' leaflet campaigns critical of Pyongyang.
The country again did not answer calls via the liaison line in August that year apparently due to its protest against Seoul-Washington's military exercises.
This file photo, provided by the unification ministry, shows a South Korean liaison officer talking to his North Korean counterpart at the Seoul bureau of their joint liaison office on Oct. 4, 2021. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)
sooyeon@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 김수연 · April 10, 2023
2. S. Korea kicks off Hwarang defense drills
We should keep in mind that training takes place all year around. Not all of it is combined training. And much of the training is to train on specific scenarios such as this one.
S. Korea kicks off Hwarang defense drills | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 채윤환 · April 10, 2023
SEOUL, April 10 (Yonhap) -- South Korea's military kicked off an annual joint exercise with local governments, police and firefighting authorities Monday as part of efforts to maintain an integrated defense posture against North Korea's military threats.
The Hwarang drills got under way in the southern city of Daegu, 237 kilometers southeast of Seoul, and the surrounding North Gyeongsang Province for a five-day run, according to the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS).
The exercise is also set to take place in five other major regions across the country through October.
The JCS said this year's exercise will see a return to full-scale drills after being reduced in size or switched to a discussion-based format since the COVID-19 outbreak in early 2020.
Authorities plan to stage air raid drills against North Korea's nuclear and missile threats, counterterrorism drills and cyberterrorism response training, it added.
This file photo, provided by the Taebaek municipal government, on Oct. 26, 2022, shows troops taking part in the Hwarang exercise at a power substation in Taebaek, 181 kilometers east of Seoul. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)
yunhwanchae@yna.co.kr
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en.yna.co.kr · by 채윤환 · April 10, 2023
3. S. Korea to launch new frigate with enhanced anti-sub capabilities
My guess is this ship is more capable and more sophisticated than any ship in the north Korean navy. The nK navy has nothing that can match this.
I wonder if the homegrown systems are interoperable with AEGIS?
Excerpt:
It is equipped with a 5-inch gun, anti-ship guided missiles, tactical ship-to-ground guided missiles and long-range anti-submarine torpedoes, as well as a homegrown "multifunctional phased array radar" system capable of detecting and tracking multiple targets from "all directions."
S. Korea to launch new frigate with enhanced anti-sub capabilities | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · April 10, 2023
SEOUL, April 10 (Yonhap) -- South Korea was set Monday to hold a ceremony launching a new 3,600-ton frigate with reinforced anti-submarine and anti-air capabilities, the Navy and the state arms procurement agency said.
The ceremony for ROKS Chungnam, named after a central province, will take place at the shipyard of HD Hyundai Heavy Industries in Ulsan, 410 kilometers southeast of Seoul, according to the armed service and the Defense Acquisition Program Administration (DAPA).
Some 150 people plan to attend the event, including Defense Minister Lee Jong-sup, Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Lee Jong-ho and DAPA Minister Eom Dong-hwan.
"ROKS Chungnam will be an example of our efforts to build a military based on science and technology, and a sturdy foundation for the strong maritime forces," the defense minister said in a prereleased speech.
The 129-meter-long vessel is the first ship built as part of Seoul's frigate acquisition program, code-named FFX Batch-III, under which the nation plans to build a total of six 3,600-ton frigates to replace aging frigates and corvettes.
It is equipped with a 5-inch gun, anti-ship guided missiles, tactical ship-to-ground guided missiles and long-range anti-submarine torpedoes, as well as a homegrown "multifunctional phased array radar" system capable of detecting and tracking multiple targets from "all directions."
Following testing procedures, the frigate is to be delivered to the Navy in December next year. It is expected to go into service in late 2025, according to officials.
South Korea has typically named frigates after the country's provinces and metropolitan cities. Its Navy ran a vessel with the name Chungnam twice before, including the frigate decommissioned in 2017.
This image, provided by the South Korean Navy, shows the 3,600-ton frigate ROKS Chungnam. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)
sshluck@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · April 10, 2023
4. Intelligence leak on U.S. spying on allies
This is why sources and methods must be protected. The "intelligence" could plausibly be attributed to normal diplomatic discussions with diplomats sharing concerns on issues. But with the exposure of the sources and methods by which the intelligence was obtained it undermines trust within the alliance because it is apparently exposing that we are gathering information by intercepting electronic communications.
Intelligence leak on U.S. spying on allies
donga.com
Posted April. 10, 2023 07:53,
Updated April. 10, 2023 07:53
Intelligence leak on U.S. spying on allies. April. 10, 2023 07:53. weappon@donga.com.
A controversial leak was reported covering confidential documents that allegedly prove that U.S. intelligence authorities spied on its allies including South Korea. Some of the leaked documents involve its allies’ intelligence gathering without prior permission regarding internal discussions within South Korean government officials on U.S. requests for the provision of weapons during the War in Ukraine. Critics project that it will have an immense ripple effect if the allegations about the U.S. eavesdropping on its allies turned out to be true, given that Washington has emphasized strengthening the alliance, keeping China and Russia in check.
Around 100 classified documents written by U.S. intelligence authorities were leaked on social media, reported The New York Times on Saturday (local time). Reportedly, the documents cover confidential details on the U.S. arms provided to Ukraine, Russian military mission plans, Ukraine war-related intelligence, and CIA daily reports regarding observations on allies.
At least two of these documents involve the eavesdropping on high-ranking foreign affairs and security officials of the Yoon Suk Yeol administration regarding Washington’s requests for providing weapons to Ukraine, said The New York Times. In particular, one of the two is reported to show that Seoul is concerned about U.S. President Joe Biden possibly pressing President Yoon Suk-yeol to assist Ukraine on the phone. It was reported that the document argued that the details were produced by intelligence-gathering by interception of signals via phone calls and messages.
The Washington Post also reported that the documents were written based on signal intelligence. It also wrote that the leaked materials argued that South Korea’s national security adviser proposed to sell munitions to Poland as Washington sought to assist Ukraine quickly.
The U.S. Department of Defense asked the FBI and the Department of Justice to launch an investigation. The documents were reported to have been submitted to U.S. military leadership including the defense secretary. The NYT pointed out that the intelligence leak highlights U.S. espionage on not only Russia but also allies, possibly doing harm to its diplomatic relationship with them.
한국어
donga.com
5. CIA taps allies including Korea and Britain
Excerpt:
The war in Ukraine is growing prolonged amid mounting tensions of the new Cold War. Still, tapping conversations of actively cooperating allies is no more than spying activities that undermine diplomatic relations. South Korea and the U.S. have high-level diplomatic channels, including face-to-face interactions at varying levels. Choosing to tap conversations rather than using these channels would only increase distrust between the two countries.
CIA taps allies including Korea and Britain
donga.com
Posted April. 10, 2023 07:51,
Updated April. 10, 2023 07:51
CIA taps allies including Korea and Britain. April. 10, 2023 07:51. .
A confidential U.S. intelligence document that included circumstantial evidence of U.S. allies including South Korea on Ukraine support was released. Around 100 documents that included information on U.S. support to Ukraine, arms and Russian military action intelligence were leaked, of which at least two documents included wire-tapped conversations of high-ranking South Korean government officials. If true, this could turn out to be a grave situation that could undermine the mutual trust of both countries.
The documents include information on whether Korea’s National Security Office would provide bombshells to Ukraine. In the discussion in early March, Secretary to the President for Foreign Affairs Lee Mun-hee worried about undermining the principle of “not supporting weapons of destruction,” while Secretary to the President for National Security Kim Seong-han suggested bypassing sales of 330K 155mm bombshells via Poland. Given the specifics of the information, including the name and details of the number, it would not have been possible to acquire such information unless tapping the phone conversations or text messages.
The war in Ukraine is growing prolonged amid mounting tensions of the new Cold War. Still, tapping conversations of actively cooperating allies is no more than spying activities that undermine diplomatic relations. South Korea and the U.S. have high-level diplomatic channels, including face-to-face interactions at varying levels. Choosing to tap conversations rather than using these channels would only increase distrust between the two countries.
The U.S. tapping of allies has been raised several times. Whistleblower Edward Snowden of the NSA leaked in 2013 that the U.S. bugged conversations of at least 35 nations including former German Chancellor Angela Merkel. In 2021, there were suspicions that the U.S. used Denmark’s information surveillance network to tap conversations of high-ranking European politicians. This shows that the U.S. still attempts to illegally bug allies despite criticism and opposition.
South Korea and the U.S. share highly sensitive information including North Korea’s nuclear missile whereabouts. The volume of information required, considering the political dynamics of Northeast Asia and economic security, is expected to increase further. It will not be possible to continue meaningful information sharing and cooperation without solid mutual trust. The government should ask the U.S. explanation on this matter at the South Korea-U.S. summit scheduled at the end of this month. Based on the document released, we should trace the bugging channel to reexamine the government’s security framework.
한국어
donga.com
6. Korea to 'consult' with U.S. over CIA spying report over Ukrainian arms supply
Sunday
April 9, 2023
dictionary + A - A
Korea to 'consult' with U.S. over CIA spying report over Ukrainian arms supply
https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/2023/04/09/national/politics/Korea-United-States-CIA/20230409211816169.html
Ukrainian servicemen stand in a trench near their position near the town of Bakhmut, Donetsk region in Ukraine on Saturday, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine. [AFP/YONHAP]
Korea's presidential office said Sunday it will hold "necessary consultations" with the United States after a report claimed the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) had been spying on the South Korean government's deliberations on whether to provide military aid to support Ukraine in the war with Russia.
The New York Times reported Saturday that leaked classified U.S. intelligence documents shared on social media revealed that the United States was not spying just on Russia, but also on its allies including South Korea and Israel.
It reported that at least two discussions in the documents posted online included "South Korea's internal debates about whether to give the U.S. artillery shells for use in Ukraine, violating Seoul's policy on providing lethal aid."
One section mentioned that South Korean officials were worried that U.S. President Joe Biden "would call South Korea's president pressuring Seoul to deliver the goods."
Another section of the CIA documents noted that information was obtained from "a signals intelligence report," referring to a term spy agencies use for any kind of intercepted communications ranging from phone calls to electronic messages.
"We will come up with a response after reviewing past precedents and cases in other countries," a presidential official told reporters Sunday, and "hold necessary consultations with the United States on the issues raised" in the report.
When asked if there had been discussions about providing weapons to Ukraine as reported, the official replied that "nothing has been confirmed."
"There is no change to our government's basic stance on Ukraine," said the official, indicating South Korea maintains its position that it will focus on providing humanitarian aid, rather than lethal weapons.
The presidential office reportedly held a meeting presided by new National Security Adviser Cho Tae-yong Sunday morning to discuss the report.
The news comes ahead of President Yoon Suk Yeol's state visit to the United States later this month.
Last month, Lee Moon-hee, presidential secretary for foreign affairs, suddenly was replaced by Lee Choong-myon, head of the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security.
On March 29, Kim Sung-han abruptly stepped down as national security adviser and was replaced by Cho. Such reshuffling of key security and foreign affairs officials ahead of major presidential overseas trips is unusual.
The New York Times reported on Sunday that when Seoul agreed to sell artillery shells to help Washington replenish its stockpiles late last year, it insisted that their "end user" should be the U.S. military, but that top Korean presidential aides were worried that the United States would divert them to Ukraine.
Lee, then presidential secretary for foreign affairs, told his boss, former National Security Adviser Kim, that the South Korean government "was mired in concerns that the U.S. would not be the end user if South Korea were to comply with a U.S. request for ammunition," according to leaked Pentagon documents.
The report described that the documents showed that South Korea was torn as a key American ally between Washington's pressure to help supply ammunition to Ukraine and its official policy of not providing lethal weapons to countries at war.
Lee "stressed that South Korea was not prepared to have a call between the heads of state without having a clear position on the issue," as South Korea could not violate its own policy against supplying lethal aid, "so officially changing the policy would be the only option," the document reportedly read, showing Seoul's concern that Biden would call Yoon directly to put pressure on Korea.
Lee said that Im Ki-hun, presidential secretary for national defense, had promised to come up with final stance by March 2. But Kim had been worried that if the announcement of Yoon's state visit to Washington coincided with an announcement of Seoul's change in its stance on providing lethal aid to Ukraine, "the public would think the two had been done as a trade," according to the report.
Kim instead suggested selling 330,000 rounds of 155-millimeter artillery shells to Poland, according to the document, and Lee agreed that it might be possibility, but said that Korea would need to "verify what Poland would do" with the ammunition.
Yoon's state visit to the United States for a bilateral summit with Biden on April 26 was announced on March 7.
There have been other cases of the United States wiretapping South Korea in the past.
In 2013, documents leaked by former U.S. National Security Agency contractor Edward Snowden revealed that the United States had been wiretapping 38 embassies and missions to collect sensitive internal information from countries including South Korea.
BY SARAH KIM [kim.sarah@joongang.co.kr]
7. Inside the international sting operation to catch North Korean crypto hackers
Excerpts:
Over the last several years, North Korean hackers have stolen billions of dollars from banks and cryptocurrency firms, according to reports from the United Nations and private firms. As investigators and regulators have wised up, the North Korean regime has been trying increasingly elaborate ways to launder that stolen digital money into hard currency, US officials and private experts tell CNN.
Cutting off North Korea’s cryptocurrency pipeline has quickly become a national security imperative for the US and South Korea. The regime’s ability to use the stolen digital money — or remittances from North Korean IT workers abroad — to fund its weapons programs is part of the regular set of intelligence products presented to senior US officials, including, sometimes, President Joe Biden, a senior US official said.
...
The succession of Kim family members who have ruled North Korea for the last 70 years have all used state-owned companies to enrich the family and ensure the regime’s survival, according to experts.
It’s a family business that scholar John Park calls “North Korea Incorporated.”
Kim Jong Un, North Korea’s current dictator, has “doubled down on cyber capabilities and crypto theft as a revenue generator for his family regime,” said Park, who directs the Korea Project at the Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center. “North Korea Incorporated has gone virtual.”
Compared to the coal trade North Korea has relied on for revenue in the past, stealing cryptocurrency is much less labor and capital-intensive, Park said. And the profits are astronomical.
Last year, a record $3.8 billion in cryptocurrency was stolen from around the world, according to Chainalysis. Nearly half of that, or $1.7 billion, was the work of North Korean-linked hackers, the firm said.
Inside the international sting operation to catch North Korean crypto hackers | CNN Politics
CNN · by Sean Lyngaas · April 9, 2023
Watch Alex Marquardt’s report on the sting operation on Erin Burnett OutFront on Monday, April 10, at 7 p.m. ET.
CNN —
A team of South Korean spies and American private investigators quietly gathered at the South Korean intelligence service in January, just days after North Korea fired three ballistic missiles into the sea.
For months, they’d been tracking $100 million stolen from a California cryptocurrency firm named Harmony, waiting for North Korean hackers to move the stolen crypto into accounts that could eventually be converted to dollars or Chinese yuan, hard currency that could fund the country’s illegal missile program.
When the moment came, the spies and sleuths — working out of a government office in a city, Pangyo, known as South Korea’s Silicon Valley — would have only a few minutes to help seize the money before it could be laundered to safety through a series of accounts and rendered untouchable.
Finally, in late January, the hackers moved a fraction of their loot to a cryptocurrency account pegged to the dollar, temporarily relinquishing control of it. The spies and investigators pounced, flagging the transaction to US law enforcement officials standing by to freeze the money.
The team in Pangyo helped seize a little more than $1 million that day. Though analysts tell CNN that most of the stolen $100 million remains out of reach in cryptocurrency and other assets controlled by North Korea, it was the type of seizure that the US and its allies will need to prevent big paydays for Pyongyang.
The sting operation, described to CNN by private investigators at Chainalysis, a New York-based blockchain-tracking firm, and confirmed by the South Korean National Intelligence Service, offers a rare window into the murky world of cryptocurrency espionage — and the burgeoning effort to shut down what has become a multibillion-dollar business for North Korea’s authoritarian regime.
Over the last several years, North Korean hackers have stolen billions of dollars from banks and cryptocurrency firms, according to reports from the United Nations and private firms. As investigators and regulators have wised up, the North Korean regime has been trying increasingly elaborate ways to launder that stolen digital money into hard currency, US officials and private experts tell CNN.
Cutting off North Korea’s cryptocurrency pipeline has quickly become a national security imperative for the US and South Korea. The regime’s ability to use the stolen digital money — or remittances from North Korean IT workers abroad — to fund its weapons programs is part of the regular set of intelligence products presented to senior US officials, including, sometimes, President Joe Biden, a senior US official said.
Kim Jong Un and his daughter attending a military parade celebrating the North Korean army's founding anniversary where the regime's latest weapons were displayed.
Rodong Sinmun
The North Koreans “need money, so they’re going to keep being creative,” the official told CNN. “I don’t think [they] are ever going to stop looking for illicit ways to glean funds because it’s an authoritarian regime under heavy sanctions.”
North Korea’s cryptocurrency hacking was top of mind at an April 7 meeting in Seoul, where US, Japanese and South Korean diplomats released a joint statement lamenting that Kim Jong Un’s regime continues to “pour its scarce resources into its WMD [weapons of mass destruction] and ballistic missile programs.”
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“We are also deeply concerned about how the DPRK supports these programs by stealing and laundering funds as well as gathering information through malicious cyber activities,” the trilateral statement said, using an acronym for the North Korean government.
North Korea has previously denied similar allegations. CNN has emailed and called the North Korean Embassy in London seeking comment.
‘North Korea Inc’ goes virtual
Starting in the late 2000s, US officials and their allies scoured international waters for signs that North Korea was evading sanctions by trafficking in weapons, coal or other precious cargo, a practice that continues. Now, a very modern twist on that contest is unfolding between hackers and money launderers in Pyongyang, and intelligence agencies and law enforcement officials from Washington to Seoul.
The FBI and Secret Service have spearheaded that work in the US (both agencies declined to comment when CNN asked how they track North Korean money-laundering.) The FBI announced in January that it had frozen an unspecified portion of the $100 million stolen from Harmony.
The succession of Kim family members who have ruled North Korea for the last 70 years have all used state-owned companies to enrich the family and ensure the regime’s survival, according to experts.
It’s a family business that scholar John Park calls “North Korea Incorporated.”
Kim Jong Un, North Korea’s current dictator, has “doubled down on cyber capabilities and crypto theft as a revenue generator for his family regime,” said Park, who directs the Korea Project at the Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center. “North Korea Incorporated has gone virtual.”
Compared to the coal trade North Korea has relied on for revenue in the past, stealing cryptocurrency is much less labor and capital-intensive, Park said. And the profits are astronomical.
Last year, a record $3.8 billion in cryptocurrency was stolen from around the world, according to Chainalysis. Nearly half of that, or $1.7 billion, was the work of North Korean-linked hackers, the firm said.
The joint analysis room in the National Cyber Security Cooperation Center of the National Intelligence Service in South Korea.
From South Korea National Intelligence Service
It’s unclear how much of its billions in stolen cryptocurrency North Korea has been able to convert to hard cash. In an interview, a US Treasury official focused on North Korea declined to give an estimate. The public record of blockchain transactions helps US officials track suspected North Korean operatives’ efforts to move cryptocurrency, the Treasury official said.
But when North Korea gets help from other countries in laundering that money it is “incredibly concerning,” the official said. (They declined to name a particular country, but the US in 2020 indicted two Chinese men for allegedly laundering over $100 million for North Korea.)
Pyongyang’s hackers have also combed the networks of various foreign governments and companies for key technical information that might be useful for its nuclear program, according to a private United Nations report in February reviewed by CNN.
The crackdown
A spokesperson for South Korea’s National Intelligence Service told CNN it has developed a “rapid intelligence sharing” scheme with allies and private companies to respond to the threat and is looking for new ways to stop stolen cryptocurrency from being smuggled into North Korea.
Recent efforts have focused on North Korea’s use of what are known as mixing services, publicly available tools used to obscure the source of cryptocurrency.
On March 15, the Justice Department and European law enforcement agencies announced the shutdown of a mixing service known as ChipMixer, which the North Koreans allegedly used to launder an unspecified amount of the roughly $700 million stolen by hackers in three different crypto heists — including the $100 million robbery of Harmony, the California cryptocurrency firm.
Private investigators use blockchain-tracking software — and their own eyes when the software alerts them — to pinpoint the moment when stolen funds leave the hands of the North Koreans and can be seized. But those investigators need trusted relationships with law enforcement and crypto firms to move quickly enough to snatch back the funds.
One of the biggest US counter moves to date came in August when the Treasury Department sanctioned a cryptocurrency “mixing” service known as Tornado Cash that allegedly laundered $455 million for North Korean hackers.
Tornado Cash was particularly valuable because it had more liquidity than other services, allowing North Korean money to hide more easily among other sources of funds. Tornado Cash is now processing fewer transactions after the Treasury sanctions forced the North Koreans to look to other mixing services.
Suspected North Korean operatives sent $24 million in December and January through a new mixing service, Sinbad, according to Chainalysis, but there are no signs yet that Sinbad will be as effective at moving money as Tornado Cash.
The people behind mixing services, like Tornado Cash developer Roman Semenov, often describe themselves as privacy advocates who argue that their cryptocurrency tools can be used for good or ill like any technology. But that hasn’t stopped law enforcement agencies from cracking down. Dutch police in August arrested another suspected developer of Tornado Cash, whom they did not name, for alleged money laundering.
Private crypto-tracking firms like Chainalysis are increasingly staffed with former US and European law enforcement agents who are applying what they learned in the classified world to track Pyongyang’s money laundering.
Elliptic, a London-based firm with ex-law enforcement agents on staff, claims it helped seize $1.4 million in North Korean money stolen in the Harmony hack. Elliptic analysts tell CNN they were able to follow the money in real-time in February as it briefly moved to two popular cryptocurrency exchanges, Huobi and Binance. The analysts say they quickly notified the exchanges, which froze the money.
“It’s a bit like large-scale drug importations,” Tom Robinson, Elliptic’s co-founder, told CNN. “[The North Koreans] are prepared to lose some of it, but a majority of it probably goes through just by virtue of volume and the speed at which they do it and they’re quite sophisticated at it.”
The North Koreans are not just trying to steal from cryptocurrency firms, but also directly from other crypto thieves.
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After an unknown hacker stole $200 million from British firm Euler Finance in March, suspected North Korean operatives tried to set a trap: They sent the hacker a message on the blockchain laced with a vulnerability that may have been an attempt to gain access to the funds, according to Elliptic. (The ruse didn’t work.)
Nick Carlsen, who was an FBI intelligence analyst focused on North Korea until 2021, estimates that North Korea may only have a couple hundred people focused on the task of exploiting cryptocurrency to evade sanctions.
With an international effort to sanction rogue cryptocurrency exchanges and seize stolen money, Carlsen worries that North Korea could turn to less conspicuous forms of fraud. Rather than steal half a billion dollars from a cryptocurrency exchange, he suggested, Pyongyang’s operatives could set up a Ponzi scheme that attracts much less attention.
Yet even at reduced profit margins, cryptocurrency theft is still “wildly profitable,” said Carlsen, who now works at fraud-investigating firm TRM Labs. “So, they have no reason to stop.”
CNN’s Gawon Bae in Seoul and Richard Roth in New York contributed to this report.
CNN · by Sean Lyngaas · April 9, 2023
8. S. Korea to seek appropriate steps from U.S. after verification of leaked documents
A good response from President Yoon's office. He recognizes the big picture and the long term.
Excerpts:
"Once the two countries finish figuring out the situation, we plan to request appropriate measures from the U.S. if necessary," a presidential official told reporters. "That process will proceed based on a relationship of trust formed between two allies."
The official noted the reports on the leaked documents have not yet been verified as true and that a U.S. government investigation is under way.
...
"If there are forces trying to exaggerate this incident ahead of the South Korea-U.S. summit or distort it to undermine the alliance, they will face the resistance of many people," the official said, referring to President Yoon Suk Yeol's planned summit with U.S. President Joe Biden on April 26.
S. Korea to seek appropriate steps from U.S. after verification of leaked documents | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 이해아 · April 10, 2023
By Lee Haye-ah
SEOUL, April 10 (Yonhap) -- South Korea will seek "appropriate measures" from the United States if necessary after the two countries look into the veracity of leaked documents purporting the U.S. eavesdropped on South Korean officials, the presidential office said Monday.
According to reports from The New York Times and The Washington Post, a set of leaked Pentagon documents shared on social media revealed that U.S. intelligence services eavesdropped on conversations at the South Korean presidential office in early March regarding whether to provide weapons support to Ukraine.
President Yoon Suk Yeol (Yonhap)
"Once the two countries finish figuring out the situation, we plan to request appropriate measures from the U.S. if necessary," a presidential official told reporters. "That process will proceed based on a relationship of trust formed between two allies."
The official noted the reports on the leaked documents have not yet been verified as true and that a U.S. government investigation is under way.
He also pointed out most of the information contained within the purported U.S. documents is related to Russia's war in Ukraine, with some in the U.S. suspecting some of the information was fabricated.
"If there are forces trying to exaggerate this incident ahead of the South Korea-U.S. summit or distort it to undermine the alliance, they will face the resistance of many people," the official said, referring to President Yoon Suk Yeol's planned summit with U.S. President Joe Biden on April 26.
The official also denied accusations from the main opposition Democratic Party that the alleged eavesdropping resulted from the Yoon administration's hasty relocation of the presidential office.
"In terms of security at the presidential office building, we prepared perfectly during the relocation process, and though I can't divulge details, we're still carrying out regular checks on areas that you're concerned about, and there have been no problems until now," he said.
The official went on to claim the current presidential office building is more secure than the former presidential complex of Cheong Wa Dae because the bunker there partially emerged from the ground.
hague@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 이해아 · April 10, 2023
9. Suspected North Korean smuggling ships visited Japan 38 times: Nikkei study
This is why north Korea can evade sanctions. Note Russian and Chinese complicity in sanctions evasion support.
Excerpts;
But the list of ships sanctioned by the U.N. has not been updated since 2018 due to opposition from China and Russia despite a U.N. Security Council panel and countries flagging certain vessels for suspicious activity. North Korea also makes frequent use of transactions that utilize third countries as well as ship-to-ship transfers of cargo at sea, limiting the effectiveness of rules that govern flagged carriers and direct routes.
Consequently, countries have implemented countermeasures independent of the U.N. South Korea, for example, has stepped up efforts to determine the country of origin of shipments of items such as coal and iron ore, which North Korea is prohibited from trading in.
The U.S. examines ships that have departed from countries with lax inspections. Both countries monitor ships suspected of smuggling and may seize them.
Suspected North Korean smuggling ships visited Japan 38 times: Nikkei study
Lax rules allow suspicious vessels to easily enter country's harbors
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/N-Korea-at-crossroads/Suspected-North-Korean-smuggling-ships-visited-Japan-38-times-Nikkei-study
TAKUMI KITAMOTO and SHOHEI NOMOTO, Nikkei staff writers
April 9, 2023 01:03 JSTUpdated on April 9, 2023 10:35 JST
TOKYO -- Ships suspected of violating United Nations sanctions imposed on North Korea are sailing in and out of Japanese ports, according to a study by Nikkei.
The study found six ships cited as linked to smuggling or as former North Korean-flagged in U.N. reports made 38 calls to the ports over the past three years.
Since 2006, Japan has prohibited imports and exports from North Korea. In 2016, it expanded the legal scope to prevent certain vessels from entering its harbors. Since then, North Korean-flagged ships, vessels that have called at North Korean ports since 2016, and ships sanctioned by the U.N. are not allowed to enter Japanese ports.
But the list of ships sanctioned by the U.N. has not been updated since 2018 due to opposition from China and Russia despite a U.N. Security Council panel and countries flagging certain vessels for suspicious activity. North Korea also makes frequent use of transactions that utilize third countries as well as ship-to-ship transfers of cargo at sea, limiting the effectiveness of rules that govern flagged carriers and direct routes.
Consequently, countries have implemented countermeasures independent of the U.N. South Korea, for example, has stepped up efforts to determine the country of origin of shipments of items such as coal and iron ore, which North Korea is prohibited from trading in.
The U.S. examines ships that have departed from countries with lax inspections. Both countries monitor ships suspected of smuggling and may seize them.
According to Japan's Foreign Ministry, South Korea had sanctioned nine vessels and the U.S. has sanctioned 17 as of April last year.
Nikkei examined the routes of 110 ships between 2020 and 2022 that were flagged in U.N. Security Council reports. Although not subject to sanctions, the ships are regarded as suspicious. At least six of these ships had called at Japanese ports 38 times in total, according to the route records obtained from British data provider Refinitiv's Automatic Identification System (AIS) signals and port entry records.
Five of the vessels are suspected of smuggling North Korean coal, and one is a former North Korean-flagged vessel, according to the report. In all cases, the AIS signals frequently go dark making it difficult to accurately determine routes and ports of call. However, Japanese legal measures do not apply because there is no record of recent port calls to North Korea.
The Japan Coast Guard has conducted on-site inspections of the six ships, but said "even if they are suspected by U.N., we cannot take any special measures."
A Togo-flagged vessel, which called at ports in March and April 2021, including Tokyo, was sanctioned by South Korea in February 2019 on suspicion of smuggling North Korean coal. According to its Tokyo port records, the ship arrived from China, loaded with "scrap," and set off for Vietnam.
The Hong Kong-based operator and shipowner did not respond to inquiries about details of the transaction.
In August 2020, a Sierra Leone-flagged ship stopped at Japan's Kagoshima Port and left, but went dark once it was near China's Ningbo-Zhoushan port, an area that the U.N. has identified as a staging ground for North Korean smuggling.
The ship's management company in Dalian, China, did not respond to inquiries.
South Korea banned the ship from entering its ports in 2018 on suspicion that it was involved in smuggling North Korean coal, and the U.S. has also urged caution in dealing with the ship.
According to the Foreign Ministry and others, Japan has never taken any independent measures to refuse ships from entering its ports. The government insists there has not been any violations of port calls, but Takehiko Yamamoto, professor emeritus at Waseda University who studies security issues, said "Japan's port surveillance system needs to be further strengthened."
According to the Japan Coast Guard, on-site inspections of ships suspected of violating sanctions are centered on document confirmation and interviews, but warrants are required for special inspections.
"At the very least, we should be able to analyze the radio communication history during a voyage," said Katsuhisa Furukawa, a former member of the panel that advises the U.N. Security Council on North Korea sanctions.
As North Korea accelerates its weapons development, monitoring maritime logistics is becoming more important.
"Japan's approach to North Korea-related ships based on compliance with the United Nations isn't very effective," said Masahiko Asada, a professor at Doshisha University who studies sanctions.
10. S. Korea, U.S., Japan to hold trilateral defense talks in U.S. this week
north Korea and CHina just keep making ROK/Japan/US trilateral cooperation stronger and stronger.
S. Korea, U.S., Japan to hold trilateral defense talks in U.S. this week | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · April 10, 2023
SEOUL, April 10 (Yonhap) -- South Korea, the United States and Japan will hold a trilateral senior-level defense meeting in the U.S. later this week, an informed source said Monday, amid joint efforts to sharpen deterrence against North Korean threats.
The deputy minister-level Defense Trilateral Talks (DTT) is set to take place Friday (U.S. time), according to the source who requested anonymity. The last DTT session was held virtually in 2020.
The three sides are expected to discuss ways to flesh out last year's summit agreement by their leaders to share missile warning data in real time to counter the North's nuclear and missile threats.
The meeting comes amid tensions heightened by the North's recent provocative moves, such as its purported tests of underwater nuclear attack drones and the unveiling of the Hwasan-31 tactical nuclear warhead.
Washington's trilateral security cooperation with its Asian allies has recently gained traction following Seoul's announcement of a resolution to the thorny issue of compensation for victims of Japan's wartime forced labor.
Ahead of the DTT session, Seoul and Washington are scheduled to hold their regular defense talks, called the Korea-U.S. Integrated Defense Dialogue, in the U.S. capital on Tuesday and Wednesday.
This photo, released by the South Korean Navy, shows South Korean, U.S. and Japanese warships conducting trilateral drills in the international waters south of the Korean Peninsula on April 4, 2023. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)
sshluck@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · April 10, 2023
11. Yoon's office to request 'appropriate measures' from US over spying fiasco
Of course the opposition party will exploit this.
Yoon's office to request 'appropriate measures' from US over spying fiasco
Opposition party calls alleged spying a 'US violation of South Korea’s national sovereignty'
koreaherald.com · by Shin Ji-hye;Kim Arin · April 10, 2023
The presidential office said Monday it would request "appropriate measures" from the US if necessary after the two countries finish assessing allegations that the US intelligence agency had wiretapped the South Korean government.
The US reports that brought the spying allegations to light are "not confirmed fact," a senior official from the presidential office told reporters, stressing that fact-checking must come first. It is also difficult to rule out the possibility that information in the reports could have been fabricated by a third-party force, he said pointing out that most of the information is about Russia's war in Ukraine.
He also dismissed the opposition’s claim that the presidential office has security issues, saying that the security of the National Security Council is more solid in Yongsan than in former presidential compound Cheong Wa Dae. “The bunker structure at Cheong Wa Dae juts out slightly aboveground, so the security where the president works here is safer.”
The presidential office was responding to the opposition party's claim that the relocation of the presidential office to Yongsan has left the presidential office defenseless against wiretapping.
The opposition party also urged the president to bring up the spying allegations suggested by a leak of what appears to be classified Pentagon documents at the upcoming summit with his US counterpart.
One of the leaked classified US documents, the authenticity of which has not yet been verified, showed details of private conversations between two top South Korean officials about the US push for Seoul to supply lethal weapons to Ukraine.
In a joint statement, Democratic Party of Korea lawmakers on the National Assembly’s national defense and foreign affairs committees characterized the alleged spying as a "US violation of South Korea’s national sovereignty” and “illegal espionage activities.”
“It is regrettable that before the head of state's visit to the US, such an event has transpired,” said Democratic Party Rep. Kim Byung-joo in a press conference.
“We strongly urge that the presidential office take steps to ensure there is no recurrence,” he said, calling Yoon’s official response to the leak “lenient.”
“I don’t know what he is afraid of, but the presidential office ought to be asking for an apology.”
Democratic Party Rep. Kim Eui-kyeom, who was previously spokesperson for the Moon Jae-in presidential office, argued that based on what is revealed so far he believed it was a “very intentional and premeditated act of eavesdropping.”
“I don’t think it was the phones that were being wiretapped. I think it was somewhere in the presidential office, some conference room perhaps, that had been accessed,” he said in the same press conference.
He added that Yoon should add discussion of the alleged spying to the agenda at his summit with Biden.“President Yoon, as the leader of a sovereign country, should convey a strong, clear protest,” he said.
Rep. Youn Kun-young, who was the director of state affairs planning and monitoring for Moon, said the leak revealed “a significant loophole in national security.”
He claimed that Yoon relocating his office out of Cheong Wa Dae “likely allowed the presidential office, the center of power and national security, to be spied on.”
“The national security council meetings are said to have been exposed,” he said, arguing that “the very front lines of the country’s national security” appear to be lacking counter-espionage infrastructure as a result of the relocation.
Democratic Party Rep. Lee Jae-jung pointed out that the presidential office neighbors the US military base, and that its proximity possibly made it vulnerable.
Democratic Party chief spokesperson Rep. Kwon Chil-seung said the spying, if true, is an “act that severely undermines the trust upon which South Korea-US alliance is based.”
Ruling People Power Party lawmakers called for caution as an investigation is being undertaken into the leak.
Rep. Kim Tae-ho, the head of the National Assembly foreign affairs committee, said in a statement that while the US investigates the leak, it “should not lead to divisions among liberal democratic allies.”
Rep. Tae Yong-ho, on the assembly’s foreign affairs committee, warned against “rushing to conclusions.”
“We have to consider the possibility that Russia, which is at war with Ukraine, might have spread false information,” he said.
“The countries that would benefit from weakened ties between South Korea and the US are none other than North Korea, China and Russia.”
By Shin Ji-hye (shinjh@heraldcorp.com)
Kim Arin (arin@heraldcorp.com)
koreaherald.com · by Shin Ji-hye;Kim Arin · April 10, 2023
12. US spying report feared to overshadow Yoon-Biden summit
I hope we can prevent this. We need to chart a path forward for the next 70 years of the ROK/US alliance.
US spying report feared to overshadow Yoon-Biden summit
The Korea Times · by 2023-04-10 10:24 | World · April 10, 2023
The presidential office in Yongsan District, Seoul / Courtesy of presidential office
Opposition parties urge gov't to demand apology from US
By Nam Hyun-woo
Revelations of alleged wiretapping of the South Korean government by U.S. intelligence is feared to overshadow President Yoon Suk Yeol's scheduled summit with his U.S. counterpart Joe Biden later this month.
Yoon is facing growing domestic pressure to demand the truth and seek an apology from Washington. But this also presents a tough choice for the president to make, since such demands could spoil the mood as the two countries are set to celebrate the 70th anniversary of their alliance during the summit.
According to The New York Times and other Western media reports, classified military and intelligence documents that have been trending online in recent weeks contain internal discussions of the South Korean government on whether to provide the U.S. with artillery shells to be used in Ukraine, violating Seoul's policy of not providing lethal weapons.
In the documents, which were identified as being from the CIA, former presidential secretary for foreign affairs Lee Moon-hee ― referred to as Yi Mun-hui in the documents ― reported to former Director of National Security Kim Sung-han that Yoon and Biden should not speak on the phone before Seoul forms a clear stance on supplying ammunition to Ukraine.
Lee noted that Seoul cannot go against its own stance of not providing lethal weapons. Thus, the only option is to change its stance. However, Kim raised concerns that such a move could be interpreted as a compromise between Yoon's state visit to the U.S. and the ammunition deal, while he "suggested the possibility" of selling munitions to Poland, according to the report.
After the alleged wiretapping was revealed, the presidential office said it will "have necessary consultations with the U.S." and "explore measures by reviewing past precedents in other countries."
A senior official at the presidential office said, "This does not mean that we are confirming whether there was an attempt at wiretapping and measures will be taken after knowing what happened exactly." The official added that "there will be knowledge sharing with the U.S. during the process of finding the facts."
When asked about what efforts South Korea is making to find out the truth, another official at the presidential office said, "Both sides are making efforts," but did not elaborate.
US scrambles to trace source of highly classified intel leak
President Yoon Suk Yeol and U.S. President Joe Biden look at each other during their joint press conference at South Korea's presidential office in Yongsan District, Seoul, May 21, 2022. Yonhap
The presidential office appears to be taking a cautious stance, due to worries that the controversy and Seoul's possible demand for an apology may spoil the mood for the upcoming Yoon-Biden summit on April 26.
A third official at the presidential office said that there is a low chance that the controversy will dampen the enthusiasm for South Korea and the U.S. to deepen their alliance further, given that Yoon's visit is welcomed by not only the Biden administration, but also the U.S. Congress.
However, Yoon faces mounting domestic pressure to demand an apology from the U.S. regarding the wiretapping allegations.
"The (South Korean) government and the president should demand precise information regarding the leaked documents and the reports and reveal that to the public," main opposition Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) floor leader Park Hong-keun said Monday.
"If confirmed, it is an unacceptable practice that cannot be tolerated in the 70-year alliance and a clear infringement of South Korea's sovereignty that shatters bilateral trust … The U.S. government should be faithful to its ally and apologize to the South Korean public and the government, if those reports are true," Park added.
Minor opposition Justice Party Chairperson Lee Jeong-mi also said that the wiretapping allegations are "beyond imagination" and the South Korean government "should demand from the U.S. crystal-clear facts, an apology and a promise to prevent a recurrence."
Main opposition Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) floor leader Park Hong-keun, right, speaks during the party's supreme council meeting at the National Assembly in Yeouido, Seoul, Monday. On the left is DPK Chairman Lee Jae-myung.
Yonhap
Opposition lawmakers at the National Assembly's defense, foreign affairs and intelligence committees held a joint press conference and demanded the ruling People Power Party (PPP) agree to start standing committee meetings to investigate the allegations.
"The wiretapping on supplying ammunition to Ukraine may be the tip of the iceberg and there seems to be a fair chance of internal conversations of the presidential office and the National Security Council being heard by the U.S.," the lawmakers said.
"The presidential office did not disavow the wiretapping, which ended up making it appear to have a lukewarm stance regarding the incident … This is a clear infringement of South Korea's sovereignty by the U.S., even though the country is the closest ally of ours," they added.
The ruling PPP's leadership is also taking a cautious stance and did not mention the case during its meetings on Monday. PPP Chairman Kim Gi-hyeon only told reporters that "finding the facts is the top priority."
But, PPP Rep. Ha Tae-keung criticized the presidential office of being "pathetic and pitiful" for not lodging a protest to the U.S., citing a 2021 case of French President Emmanuel Macron and former German Chancellor Angela Merkel demanding that the U.S. explain the alleged wiretapping of European politicians.
Against this backdrop, the presidential office said First Deputy Director of National Security Kim Tae-hyo will visit the U.S. "to exchange opinions with his U.S. counterparts on Yoon's state visit, North Korea, economic security and other pending issues."
Although the presidential office did not mention it, the wiretapping issue is anticipated to be one of the subjects of talks between the first deputy director of national security and U.S. officials.
The Korea Times · by 2023-04-10 10:24 | World · April 10, 2023
13. NK's underwater drones mean more defense costs for Seoul: analysts
We should not overreact to this "capability." But both the ROK and US must continuously seek to improve their defense capabilities to anticipate new developments by our adversaries.
NK's underwater drones mean more defense costs for Seoul: analysts
The Korea Times · April 10, 2023
This photo, provided April 8 by the North's official Korean Central News Agency, shows a test of what North Korea claimed was an underwater nuclear-capable attack drone called Haeil-2, in North Korea's waters. Yonhap
'Weapon capabilities may have been exaggerated, but allies should take it seriously'
By Jung Min-ho
After North Korea claimed it successfully tested a nuclear-capable underwater attack drone recently, South Korea's military immediately played it down, saying the capabilities of the weapon may have been exaggerated or even faked.
That may be true. But, if left undisturbed, it could grow into a significant threat to Seoul and, in the long run, to its defense alliance with Washington, analysts told The Korea Times Monday.
"One of North Korea's main goals in diversifying its delivery means for nuclear weapons is to increase the defense burden for South Korea and the United States. In that sense, the North will likely achieve what it wants by making the announcement," said Park Won-gon, a professor of North Korean studies at Ewha Womans University.
"The regime may be in the early phase of developing the weapon. But that would force Seoul and Washington to prepare for the threat. It takes a great deal of technology and, of course, resources to develop detection systems for such underwater weapons … We also should keep in mind that it is just one of 20 new weapons systems Pyongyang has revealed since 2019."
In the past three weeks, North Korea conducted three tests of what it claimed were nuclear-capable underwater attack drones designed to destroy ports and warships. The latest one tested between April 4 and 7, Haeil-2, traveled some 1,000 kilometers underwater for more than 71 hours before successfully detonating a mock warhead in the desired location near the eastern port city of Tanchon, South Hamgyong Province, the North's state media reported.
This comes with tests of other types of underwater drones ― Haeil and Haeil-1 ― which it said are capable of setting off a "radioactive tsunami" against enemies. The tests have "perfectly proved" the reliability of the weapon, North Korea claimed.
"There are two important questions," said Shin Jong-woo, a senior researcher at the Korea Defense and Security Forum, a think tank. "First, given that the weapon is powered by an electric motor, does North Korea have the technology to make batteries that can last for 72 hours in water? Second, does North Korea have a system that can trace the target and detonate explosives underwater? What's been revealed so far does not answer those questions."
The Republic of Korea Navy's Aegis destroyer Yulgok Yi I, front row right, U.S. Navy's aircraft carrier USS Nimitz, center, Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force's Umigiri, front row left, travel in formation during a joint naval exercise in international waters off South Korea's southern Jeju Island, April 4.
The South Korean, U.S. and Japanese navies began their first anti-submarine drills in six months the previous day to boost their coordination against increasing North Korean threats. Courtesy of South Korea's Ministry of National DefenseSome experts say the North is trying to copy Russia's Poseidon, a nuclear-capable torpedo that can be carried by a nuclear-powered submarine. But the regime's mastery of the complex technology required for such weaponry is likely still far-fetched. That does not mean that it will forever be impossible, however.
"Given that the North has nuclear weapons and developing delivery means for the weapons are considered less challenging than, say, a nuclear-tipped ICBM, it is expected to continue trying to acquire that ability," Shin said.
Once completed, among the primary targets of the weapon would be South Korea's ports in southern regions and Japan's territory where powerful U.S. military assets are located, Shin added. "This may require more effective communication and collaboration with not just the U.S. but also Japan, which is equipped with advanced detection ability for such underwater threats," he said.
Over the past two years, North Korea has intensified its provocations while introducing new weapons systems in an apparent effort to diversify its delivery mechanisms as well as the scope of its nuclear arsenal.
Experts warn that North Korea is likely to increase threat levels in the coming week as it celebrates the 111th birthday of its founder, Kim Il-sung, on April 15.
The Korea Times · April 10, 2023
14. Nuclear North Korea Facing Another Famine
I am concerned. We must prepare for the full range of contingencies from war to internal instability and regime collapse.
Nuclear North Korea Facing Another Famine
asiasentinel.com · by Asia Sentinel
By: Shim Jae Hoon
Starvation? I see no starvation.
A country proudly in possession of atomic and hydrogen bombs, even intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of hitting mainland US cities, and submarines that can launch missiles from below the ocean, surely North Korea is on the cusp of becoming a major military force. But it’s a country whose 25 million people are perpetually going hungry, with the regime running short on food to feed its populace.
For a number of international aid agencies like the UN Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO), that’s not an ironic joke to be shrugged over. The last time the Pyongyang regime ran out of food, between 1995 and 2000, the regime under the second-generation Kim dynasty dictator allowed anywhere between half a million and three million people to perish in a famine that its propagandists euphemistically dubbed the “Years of Arduous March.”
Now under the third-generation dictator Kim Jong Un, the regime looks concerned but not enough to ask for emergency international aid. Just below the Demilitarized Zone in Seoul, the South Korean government is desperately fighting to stop the opposition party from forcing it to buy surplus rice crops from farmers obdurately refusing to cut down on their production. Probably out of shame or pride, Kim last year breezily ignored a South Korean proposal to send 50,000 tons of rice aid to alleviate another looming famine.
Instead, Kim appears hoping to ship munitions for Russia’s war against Ukraine in exchange for food from Putin, according to John Kirby, the US National Security Council spokesman. If that deal works out, a hungry North Korea is taking a major risk of extending the already lengthening Ukraine war.
For all its aggressive bravado, North Korea is a country in a perpetual hunger, not just because of its chilly climate and barren hills. Under a regime that mobilizes most of its economic resources to military sector, it plunged into a harrowing famine just 23 years ago with its traditional allies China and Soviet Union refusing to help. Cold-hearted Moscow and Beijing demanded market prices for their food aid, even as North Korea was broke.
Speaking at a Central Committee plenum session of the ruling Workers Party in February, the 38-year-old Kim Jong Un had no concrete proposals to tide the country over the crisis, other than ordering his cabinet to seek a “fundamental transformation” of the party’s agricultural policy. That however is unlikely to happen as the regime’s top priority rests on arms buildup, not raising food output. Like his father Kim Jong Il who left the agricultural issue largely in the hands of apparatchiks, Jong Un focuses on nuclear development. When the last famine erupted, Kim senior had the agriculture commissar simply executed on false charges of being an American spy.
Thus the North’s food crisis remains almost fatalistic. According to figures released by the Rural Development Administration in Seoul, the North’s total food production last year – including rice, wheat, maize, and potato – ran to 4.51 million tons, down 3.8 percent from the previous year. Owing to bad weather, fertilizer shortages, and backward farming, its annual food production has seldom exceeded 4.8 million tons at best, leaving annual shortage running to 1.5 or 1.8 million tons.
The shortage has turned even worse in the past two years with the Corona-19 pandemic forcing border shutdown, preventing imports from China and elsewhere. Food rations have been reduced significantly with imports being cut under UN Security Council sanctions triggered by its nuclear tests and missile launches. With border traffic reopening this year, the shortage is expected to lessen a bit, but not enough to help thwart widespread hunger, according to experts in Seoul. Even if doors are reopened for imports, the regime has run out of cash to purchase more food.
Problems affecting the shortage are so structural and fundamental to the North Korean system that few experts anticipate improvement anytime soon. Like the regime’s political and social controls, its agricultural policy is under strict party supervision. Collective farms provide manpower and some equipment, but they lack fossil-fuel-based inputs like fertilizers and mechanized equipment required for increasing outputs.
According to Dr. Kim Young Hoon, Seoul’s top expert on the North’s agricultural issues, its food shortages are unlikely to improve anytime soon unless essential inputs of modern farming and more independent management are offered to collective and cooperative farming units. The only way for the North to resolve the food crisis is for the party to relinquish its control, Kim told a recent seminar in Seoul. Put simply, it means the party allowing more independent management in the agricultural sector, but that would never happen in a country perpetually in the grip of dynastic control and a personality cult. A top-down system of control in “disregard of capital inputs,” he said, never works. You need more than just land and labor to increase crop yields, he said, adding capital input is essential. The North’s problem lies in its priority on arms spending, not on food.
Other specialists cite the problem of party doctrine on agricultural issues, such as the method of saturated planting in the hope of raising yields. But that requires higher fertilizer inputs and insecticides to produce higher yields. But that has been hampered by insufficient fertilizers and insecticides. In the 1990s, state founder Kim Il Sung caused disaster by instructing more terrace farming by cutting down trees on the hill, which caused landslides and floods during the rainy season, setting off an extensive agricultural fiasco and prompting famine.
Before his death in 1994, Kim senior – who has been posthumously designated the Supreme Leader in Perpetuity – promised his people daily meals of “beef soup with white rice.” Seven decades later, not only has that promise remained unfulfilled, it’s become a tragic joke as millions more face a potential second famine.
asiasentinel.com · by Asia Sentinel
15. Number of North Korea’s Nuclear Warheads
The 7 page report can be downloaded in PDF here. https://www.hansun.org/eng/bbs/download.php?uid=26&imgDate=20230327&bbs_code=bbsIdx1
It includes charts and details.
Conclusion:
Any estimation of the number of North Korea’s nuclear weapons cannot have absolute validity.
Most estimates are based on multiple assumptions. If any of them changes, the overall estimate will
be significantly different. Nonetheless, the number of nuclear weapons currently being mentioned in
the international community, for example, 20–60 nuclear warheads, cannot be considered a relevant
level of numbers compared to what North Korea may actually possess. The numbers appear to be too
small to be justified, considering the significant number of uranium centrifuges believed to have
been operating in North Korea. North Korea has been concentrating all its efforts and resources on
making more nuclear weapons and enhancing its nuclear capabilities. The North Korea’s scientists
and technicians have to execute the given orders, no matter what. In this sense, we cannot simply
consider the grand total of North Korea’s nuclear weapons, 188–467, preposterous or excessive. We
may need to assume the number of North Korea’s nuclear weapons is "more than 100."
Reality is usually totally different from our expectations. Reality exists as it is. Efforts to adjust
reality to fit our optimistic thinking have always failed. We have no choice but to adapt our thinking
to reality. In this regard, there is a need to evaluate North Korea’s nuclear arsenal more
pessimistically. North Korea has been operating 18,000–26,000 centrifuges and could produce
72,000–104,000kg × SWU/yr of uranium enrichment and 379–547 kg of 90%-level HEU annually.
Ten years have passed since North Korea succeeded in developing its first nuclear weapons. A
responsible nation prepares for the worst-case scenario and devises its strategy not based on wishful
thinking but on the harsh reality as it is.
Hansun Policy Report 2023-E2 March 24, 2023
Number of North Korea’s Nuclear Warheads
Park Jinho, senior researcher, pjh808@naver.com
Park Hwee Rhak, research chair, hweerhakpark@gmail.com
https://www.hansun.org/eng/bbs/board_view.php?bbs_code=bbsIdx1&num=114
Introduction
It is very important to determine how many nuclear weapons North Korea possesses and has
deployed. Even though it is almost impossible to evaluate it accurately, an approximate estimate is
necessary and useful to properly assess the level of the North Korea’s nuclear threat. If we know the
number of North Korea’s nuclear weapons, we can predict the nuclear strategy of North Korea and
develop and implement appropriate countermeasures to deter and defend North Korea’s nuclear
provocations.
As we well know, it is very difficult to obtain even basic information on North Korea’s nuclear
arsenal because of that country's extreme isolation and total closure. Only a few inner-circle leaders
of North Korea may know the exact number. The international community generally estimates the
number of nuclear weapons in North Korea to be around 20–60, but these numbers are mere guesses.
These numbers have been circulated around the world just because no one could provide any
evidence for rebuttal and most people do not want to face reality. If these numbers differ
significantly from reality, the international community, including South Korea and the United States,
would end up underestimating North Korea’s nuclear threat and missing the opportunity to be fully
prepared for the worst-case scenario.
Although it is not easy to provide a definite number, we should try to calculate the number of
North Korea’s nuclear weapons through logical reasoning and the available evidence, which is
limited. Needless to say, the most agreeable starting point for the reasoning will be the amount of
plutonium and highly enriched uranium (HEU), which are the indispensable materials for nuclear
weapons development. If we know the amount of plutonium and HEU, we can calculate the range of
numbers of North Korea’s nuclear weapons.
Two Key Materials for Nuclear Weapons Development
Nuclear weapons could be made from two types of materials: weapons-grade plutonium (WGPu),
which is produced through the reprocessing of spent fuel from a reactor, and HEU with a purity of
95%. If you want to make nuclear weapons, you should have one of these two materials.
WGPu is produced in the course of the reprocessing of spent fuel that was generated from a reactor
that used uranium tetrafluoride (UTF) fuel rods. This amount of WGPu can be estimated using
satellite imagery or by monitoring the operation of the reactor.
Weapon-grade HEU (about 93%) could be produced through several stages of centrifugation.
North Korea has abundant uranium ore and can supply lots of uranium ores to centrifuge facilities to
convert them into gaseous uranium hexafluoride (UF6). Therefore, the amount of produced HEU can
be estimated by calculating the size of centrifuge facilities and the operating period of the facilities.
16. N. Korea orders people to record their military support activities in little notebooks
Is this an indication that the regime is concerned about the coherency and support of the military? Is there potential for the breakdown of some military units?
And is this an effort to place blame for when there is instability within the north Korean People's Army - are the people providing enough "support" to their army?
N. Korea orders people to record their military support activities in little notebooks
The order also instructed organizations to send supplies such as gloves, socks, handkerchiefs and foot wraps to soldiers deployed to residential construction sites in Pyongyang
dailynk.com
This photo published by state-run media on Mar. 6, 2023, shows North Koreans transporting boxes of supplies to soldiers. (Rodong Sinmun-News1)
North Korea recently issued a nationwide order calling on people to demonstrate the “good practice of providing support to the military,” Daily NK has learned.
Speaking on condition of anonymity due to security concerns, a reporting partner in South Pyongan Province told Daily NK on Thursday that the order was issued on Mar. 27 and called for both “organized efforts” to support the military and for individuals to demonstrate the “good practice of supporting the military,” or in Korean, wongun mipung.
The order emphasized that “to support the military equals patriotism,” explaining that soldiers are the sons and daughters of the people, and only by protecting and helping them can citizens enjoy better livelihoods.
In the order, toothbrushes, toothpaste, notebooks, pens and party membership card cases were listed as basic military support supplies. It further instructed people to undertake organized efforts to raise chickens and rabbits, with the leather to used to make military uniforms and the meat turned into meat soup, or gomtang.
The order also instructed Workers’ Party and labor organizations to send supplies such as gloves, socks, handkerchiefs and foot wraps to soldiers deployed to housing construction sites in Pyongyang, and to exhaustively review military support efforts during monthly criticism sessions.
ALL ADULTS MUST CREATE NOTEBOOKS
The order further emphasized that officials must encourage individuals to actively take part in efforts to support the military and that people must create notebooks that detail how well they have met their goals to support the military.
In response to the order, South Pyongan Province authorities convened a meeting to discuss measures to encourage people to demonstrate wongun mipung. The meeting instructed the province’s cities and counties to order everyone 19 years of age and older to create notebooks detailing their activities to support the military.
“Sunchon’s party committee ordered all local residents to create identical notebooks of the standardized size of 16 jeolji, and that they regularly write down every month the dates they carried out activities to support the military and what they did,” said the reporting partner. Sixteen jeolji is about 1/16 the size of an A4-sized piece of paper.
“The committee also called on Sunchon residents to continue filling out the notebooks even if they move to a different region so that the wongun mipung of the city’s people becomes a nationwide model and a source of pride,” the reporting partner said.
“Promoting the model examples of people who contributed to military support activities over the last 10 years, the committee called for even more wongun mipung pioneers and declared it would move forward with a tight hold on the reins, so to speak.”
Translated by David Black. Edited by Robert Lauler.
Daily NK works with a network of reporting partners who live inside North Korea. Their identities remain anonymous due to security concerns. More information about Daily NK’s reporting partner network and information gathering activities can be found on our FAQ page here.
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17.
De Oppresso Liber,
David Maxwell
Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy
Senior Fellow, Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation
Editor, Small Wars Journal
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
Phone: 202-573-8647
email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com
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