In a new PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo, Kirill Melnikov argues Russia’s centralization of power has resulted in less unity, more informal power structures, and an uncoordinated bureaucracy. But Putin has no clear successor and will not voluntarily give up power any time soon, writes Peter Rutland, and “the costs of opposition are simply too great” for Kremlin technocrats to risk challenging him, adds David Szakonyi. Support for Putin’s regime today is rooted in tsarist-era social divisions, says Tomila Lankina. Ukrainians’ conversations with Russian family members may be helping counter Russian propaganda, though, write Tymofii Brik and Jordan Gans-Morse.

In a second new PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo, Martin Jirušek finds that the REPowerEU plan could have a substantial impact on Russian gas sales by the mid-2020s. The West must not overestimate the impact of sanctions, though, and needs to do more to target Russia’s energy revenues, argues Maria Snegovaya. Russia receives enough energy revenue to continue funding its war in Ukraine “for a very long time," she said elsewhere. Oligarchs will likely remain rich despite sanctions, Vladimir Gelman explains, losing mostly opportunities for travel and business outside Russia as well as certain liberties at home.
 
Pavel Baev argues Western worries about “humiliating” Russia are misplaced, as Putin has already exploited the humiliation theme “to the maximum.” Pavel Podvig analyzes Russian officials’ careful statements and finds the risk of the Kremlin using a nuclear weapon is low. Alexander Iskandaryan observes that Russia, in addition to invading Ukraine, is trying to balance its interests in China, Central Asia, Turkey, Syria, and the South Caucasus. Asked by Foreign Affairs whether the China-Russia alignment will last, Kimberly Marten indicates no since “the economic and political risks of allying with Russia are now clear,” while Samuel Charap and Nargis Kassenova believe it will, with Kassenova noting Russia has no alternative.

With Georgia left out as the EU extended candidate status to Ukraine and Moldova, Kornely Kakachia blames the Georgian government’s recent policies. The Kyiv School of Economics is undertaking many efforts to sustain science and scholarship in Ukraine, reports Brik. Looking ahead to a post-war Ukraine, Volodymyr Ishchenko believes the Zelensky administration may still need to tackle pre-war problems like accusations of nepotism and waning popularity. More generally, geographers offer an important perspective in understanding authoritarianism, argues Natalie Koch.