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PDF | Research | Week of November 13, 2023

Quote of the Week

“Central banks have come out and said that rates will be higher for longer. The end of that environment is nowhere near.”

– Dan Villalon, global co-head of portfolio solutions, AQR Capital Management.

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The New Paradigm (First of a Series)

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The New Paradigm (Second of a Series)

Two economic dynamics are driving capital markets. First, GDP strength which, by many measures, remains steady if not buoyant. One of our favorite contributors is Caterpillar. 


Hard to think of a better representative of cyclical industrials than the Peoria, IL-based manufacturer of heavy “yellow-iron” equipment. The company reported a 12% revenue increase to $16.8 billion for 3Q, from $15 billion in 3Q 2022. Operating profit margins were up, 20.5% vs. 16.2% on higher demand for energy and transportation-related construction.


For more defensive sectors, the Gryphon Index (derived from Churchill’s senior debt portfolio) showed revenue and Ebitda improvement of 14.5%, year-over-year through June 30. This includes both organic growth and add-on acquisitions (see our Chart of the Week)...

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Chart of the Week

Midcap Momentum

Churchill’s senior debt portfolio showing higher revenues and cash flows. 

Source: Churchill Asset Management LLC

(Past performance is no guarantee of future results.)

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Stat of the Week

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Loan Stats at a Glance 

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Contact: Marina Lukatsky / Pitchbook LCD

PDI Picks

LPs remain cautious on fundraising

The current environment for deal-doing in private debt appears to be strong, but there are reasons why GPs may still struggle to attract investor support. 



Sleigh bells may not quite be ringing yet, but at Private Debt Investor we decided that we were close enough to the end of the year to reach out to investors for their...

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Leveraged Loan Insight & Analysis

BDC debt valuations increase in 3Q23

BDC debt valuations climbed across the board in 3Q23, with riskier debt outperforming as hopes of an economic soft landing increased...

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Contact: CJ Doherty / Refinitiv LPC

The Pulse of Private Equity

Mega-deals down, mega-fundraising rising

Currents are crashing into each other at the biggest ranges of the PE market. A couple weeks ago we covered a sizable drop in mega-deals, first unearthed in PitchBook’s Q3 US PE Breakdown...

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Contact: Alex Lykken / PitchBook

DL Deals: News & Analysis

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Year-to-Date Default Volume, Count

Contact: Eric Rosenthal / KBRA DLD

Middle Market & Private Credit

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Fitch’s Privately Monitored Middle Market Portfolio Overview, 3Q23

Fitch expects revenue growth to moderate to the mid-single digits in 2023 after two strong years of double-digit growth...

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Covenant Trends 

Distribution of Accordion F&C Tranche EBITDA Grower Caps (L3M)

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Contact: Steven Miller / Covenant Review

High-Yield Bond Statistics

Launched Volume

New-issue Yields

Weekly Fund Flows

Weekly fund flows source: Lipper

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Private Debt Intelligence

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Private debt is the second largest contributor to private capital fundraising

Private debt fund managers raised $181bn in aggregate capital, accounting for 17.2% of the over $1tn raised by all private capital...

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Contact: Megan Harris / Preqin

Debtwire Middle-Market

The blue line in the chart is the current dividend yield of the *VanEck BDC Income ETF (currently at 10.9%) that tracks...

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Contact: Suneet Chandvani / Debtwire 

Middle Market Deal Terms at a Glance

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Contact: Stefan Shaffer / SPP Capital Partners

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This publication is a service to our clients and friends. It is designed only to give general information on the market developments actually covered. It is not intended to be a comprehensive summary of recent developments or to suggest parameters for any prospective financing opportunity.