November 2023

Key Takeaways

The rolling 12-month price strip for WTI closed at $80/barrel last week, 0.3% lower than a week ago, and the rolling 12-month price strip for Brent closed at $84.33/barrel, registering a decline of 0.6% week-over-week. With OPEC continuing production cuts until the end of the year and possibly extending cuts into 2024, oil prices could move upward this week. The November NYMEX prompt month futures saw a 1.2% increase week-over-week to land at $3.52/MMBtu. We saw natural gas production decrease slightly last week to 102.4 Bcf/day. Electricity prices fell over the past week, with the NEPOOL 12-month down just 0.4% week-over-week, settling at $60.81/MWh. Following an unseasonably warm weekend, prices are likely to respond to increased heating demand as winter temperatures fully materialize.

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WINTER WEATHER FORECAST: BEARISH OR BULLISH?

By Max Webb, Managing Director of Pricing and Zack Hallock, Senior Energy Services Advisor

We’re back with another installment of our winter weather forecast. Before diving into this year’s forecast, we first need to take a step back and recap last winter—when the U.S., and specifically New England, was in a very different position compared to where we are today. As you may remember....

2023 Summer Recap ISO-NE PEAK LOAD HOUR & CES SELF-HELP

It was an unusual summer in New England. The region set records for highest-monthly-low temperatures (overnight lows were unusually high) but did not experience any sustained heat waves (daytime highs were unusually moderate). As a result, peak electric demand on the grid struggled to get above the 22,300 MW demand level set early in the summer on July 6th. For context, the lowest hour of annual peak demand over the previous 7 years is 23,500 MW in 2017 and the average annual peak demand over this period is about 24,500 MW.

Hot weather finally arrived in New England as the summer was ending. Just after Labor Day the regional electric grid set new year-to-date peaks on Wednesday September 6 and again on Thursday September 7. CES issued four alerts that week to clients enrolled in our CES Self-Help Demand response program culminating with a strong recommendation that participants plan on “reducing loads starting at 4 pm and lasting until 8 pm today, Thursday September 7 with maximum attention on the 5 pm to 7 pm window.”

Photo by: Oleksandr Akulenko

CES In-Person Fall Seminar Thank You!

CES would like to extend heartfelt thanks to everyone who attended the our in-person seminar titled ”Markets Can Be Wicked: Taking the Fright Out of Energy Uncertainty," which was held on Tuesday, October 24 at the University of Southern Maine Albert Brenner Glickman Family Library. We enjoy hosting our seminar programs – virtually and in-person – with the goal of providing timely energy-related topics relevant to our clients and friends. We hope this year’s program answered some of the questions you may have about New England energy markets today – and tomorrow. If you missed the seminar this year, or would like to review this year’s presentation, please feel free to reach out to one of our Energy Services Advisors. Thank you again, and we look forward to seeing you soon!

Pictured above: Andrew Price, President & COO, Competitive Energy Services

Photo by: Nina Callanan

Have an Energy Question?

If you have a pressing energy question, or would like to hear about a particular topic in a future edition of the CES Insider, please contact us on our website today. We look forward to hearing from you!

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