Informal Institute for National Security Thinkers and Practitioners

Quotes of the Day:

“I am committed to looking reality in the face and speaking about it without pretense. It is because I reject lies, and running away, that I am accused of pessimism; but this rejection implies hope – the hope that truth may be of use. And this is a more optimistic attitude, then the choice of indifference, ignorance, or sham.”

– Simone de Beauvoir

"Individual freedom, views people not as a means to an end, but as ends in themselves, celebrating "life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness" as the inalienable reality of their nature."

– A core principle of classical liberalism

"What are you afraid of losing, when nothing in the actually belongs to you."

– Marcus Aurelius

1. Missiles Are Now the Biggest Killer of Airline Passengers

2. Azerbaijan observes day of mourning for air crash victims as speculation mounts about its cause

3. Everything We Know About What Led Up To The Azerbaijan Airliner Crash

4. Anti-Drone Weapon With 24 Barrels Firing Buckshot-Like Rounds Emerges On Russian Buggies

5. This Army unit is the first to field new company and battalion drones

6. Ukraine’s military intelligence says North Korean troops are suffering heavy battlefield losses

7. Russia arrests 4 suspects accused of plotting to kill top military officers on Ukraine's orders

8. Russia is intensifying its air war in Ukraine. A secretive factory is ramping up drone production to fuel the offensive

9. Military support to detention and deportation would harm readiness

10. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 26, 2024

11. Iran Update, December 26, 2024

12. Russia has a history of downing passenger planes — and covering it up

13. United Front: China's 'magic weapon' caught in a spy controversy

14. Finland boards oil tanker suspected of causing internet, power cable outages

15. How Tariffs Can Help America

16. The Real Stakes of the AI Race

17. Special Forces soldier dies in non-combat incident at Eglin range

18. ‘The Dark Path’ Review: Rivalry and the Roar of Guns

1. Missiles Are Now the Biggest Killer of Airline Passengers

Quite a headline and statement.

Missiles Are Now the Biggest Killer of Airline Passengers

Passenger flights are extraordinarily safe—except near conflicts, which are spreading

https://www.wsj.com/world/flight-deaths-shot-from-sky-rising-798fd31e?mod=hp_lead_pos2

Preliminary results of an investigation indicate the jetliner that crashed this week in Kazakhstan was hit by Russian fire. Photo: Isa Tazhenbayev/Zuma Press

By Daniel MichaelsFollow

and Benjamin KatzFollow

Updated Dec. 27, 2024 7:16 am ET

Jetliners being accidentally blasted out of the sky has become the leading cause of commercial-aviation deaths over recent years, marking a new trend running counter to an otherwise improving safety picture.

The crash Wednesday of an Azerbaijan Airlines jetliner in Kazakhstan, if officially confirmed as a shootdown, would be the third major fatal downing of a passenger jet linked to armed conflict since 2014, according to the Flight Safety Foundation’s Aviation Safety Network, a global database of accidents and incidents. The tally would bring to more than 500 the number of deaths from such attacks during that period.

Preliminary results of Azerbaijan’s investigation into the crash indicate the plane was hit by a Russian antiaircraft missile, or shrapnel from it, said people briefed on the probe.

“It adds to the worrying catalog of shootdowns now,” said Andy Blackwell, an aviation risk adviser at security specialist ISARR and former head of security at Virgin Atlantic. “You’ve got the conventional threats, from terrorists and terrorist groups, but now you’ve got this accidental risk as well.”

Azerbaijan observes day of mourning for air crash victims as speculation mounts about its cause

AP · December 26, 2024

3. Everything We Know About What Led Up To The Azerbaijan Airliner Crash

Everything We Know About What Led Up To The Azerbaijan Airliner Crash

The passenger jet crashed after being struck with shrapnel from a Russian air defense system according to preliminary reports.

Howard Altman

Updated 18 Hours Ago

172

twz.com · by Howard Altman

Azerbaijan Airlines Flight JS-8432 crashed in Kazakhstan Wednesday after being fired upon by a Russian Pantsir S1 short-range air defense system, the head of Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence Directorate (GUR) told The War Zone, while a U.S. official told us that a Russian anti-aircraft system may have struck the aircraft. These claims line up with video emerging from inside the jet and the crash scene as well as reporting by several news outlets indicating the Russian air defense system caused the crash of the Embraer 190 passenger jet that killed 38. The War Zone cannot independently verify these claims while several investigations are underway and Russian, Azerbainanian and Kazakh officials urge restraint in reaching conclusions about the crash.

Video taken by a passenger before the crash reportedly showed “shrapnel holes in the fuselage, consistent with damage from a Russian surface-to-air missile,” according to the Twitter account of the Azeri Times news outlet. “The footage also shows a woman bleeding from her leg, wounded by shrapnel.”

Azerbaijan Plane Crash: Videos taken onboard the plane while it was still in the air reveal shrapnel holes in the fuselage, consistent with damage from a Russian surface-to-air missile. The footage also shows a woman bleeding from her leg, wounded by shrapnels. pic.twitter.com/SPs3JzoG6J

— The Azeri Times (@AzeriTimes) December 26, 2024

Another video form inside the plane appeared to show shrapnel damage as well.

Two separate cabin videos (switching at 0:26) from inside the damaged Azerbaijani aircraft. In the first video, the plane is still above the clouds and doesn’t appear to be swerving much. #J28243

***

Shrapnel penetrated the fuselage from the left and exited on the right. pic.twitter.com/wQ931X6bgb

— Espoolaismies Pepe ✠ (@hurumdara2) December 26, 2024

In a video recorded after the crash, the tail section appeared to be riddled with shrapnel.

Increasing speculation in Russian media that the Baku-Grozny Azerbaijan Airlines flight was shot down by Russian air defenses that mistook it for a Ukrainian drone. Footage of the damage to the fuselage. pic.twitter.com/QzsDbCLDtS

— Yaroslav Trofimov (@yarotrof) December 25, 2024

The jet’s final moments can be seen in videos showing its pilots trying to land the aircraft before it crashed. It appeared to pitch upward, then descend at a steep angle several times. On its final approach, the Embraer 190 again descended at a steep angle before banking to the right and crashing near the runway, erupting in a ball of flames.

In the extended video of the "AZAL #Azerbaijan Airlines" plane crash, which was originally en route #Baku–#Grozny and diverted to #Aktau Airport due to fog, the aircraft is seen descending and ascending multiple times before its final landing attempt. pic.twitter.com/xT30VTIVI4

— Ararat Petrosyan (@araratpetrosian) December 25, 2024

A separate Tweet showed another view of the crash and its aftermath, with survivors in the rear section of the aircraft which had detached upon impact.

Another angle of the Azerbaijanian Airlines E190 crashing in Kazakhstan https://t.co/AAMTJXKlzN pic.twitter.com/GgD1SLrbDf

— 𝕏 Aliu ™ 𝕏 (@Aliu_312) December 25, 2024

“As far as we know, the jet was shot down by a Russian Pantsir S1 air defense system on Russian terrain,” GUR commander Lt. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov told us. Citing four sources close to the Azerbaijani investigation, Reuters reported that the jet was downed by Russian air defense “after diverting from an area of Russia in which Moscow has used air defense systems against Ukrainian drone strikes in recent months.”

Euronews, citing “Azerbaijani government sources” reported that “a Russian surface-to-air missile caused the Azerbaijan Airlines plane crash in Aktau on Wednesday.”

“According to the sources, the missile was fired at Flight 8432 during drone air activity above Grozny, and the shrapnel hit the passengers and cabin crew as it exploded next to the aircraft mid-flight,” the publication reported. “Government sources have told Euronews that the damaged aircraft was not allowed to land at any Russian airports despite the pilots’ requests for an emergency landing, and it was ordered to fly across the Caspian Sea towards Aktau in Kazakhstan. According to data, the plane’s GPS navigation systems were jammed throughout the flight path above the sea.”

Aktau is nearly 300 miles east of Grozny.

The stricken jet flew nearly 300 miles east, including nearly 190 miles over the Caspian Sea. (Google Earth)

The airliner, with 67 people on board, was due to fly to Grozny in Russia’s Chechen Republic but it was diverted because of fog, the airline said, according to the BBC.

“A surviving passenger told Russian TV he believed the pilot had tried twice to land in dense fog over Grozny before ‘the third time, something exploded… some of the aircraft skin had blown out,'” the network reported.

Sad Day for Azerbaijan as the national airline carrier's plane crashed on Christmas, grieved to the entire nation—Heartfelt condolences to all those who lost their loved ones in this tragic incident.

Azerbaijan Airlines (AZAL) @azalofficial is known for its high quality and… pic.twitter.com/7uVL712pT3

— Malik Ayub SUMBAL 马利克 (@ayubsumbal) December 26, 2024

Kazakhstan’s Minister of Transport, Marat Karabayev, said Thursday that a Kazakh control center received a signal from Russia around 45 minutes before the plane crashed, saying that the flight was being diverted, CNN reported.

“The Russian dispatcher said that the aircraft was experiencing a failure in its control systems and that the crew decided to fly to Aktau after receiving reports of bad weather, Karabayev said,” according to CNN. “The dispatcher later said that an ‘oxygen tank exploded in the passenger cabin, causing passengers to lose consciousness,’ according to Karabayev. While the Azerbaijan Airlines crew made two landing approaches at Aktau airport, the aircraft deviated from its course, and lost communication with Aktau dispatchers when it crashed, Karabayev said.”

The flight-tracking website Flightradar24 reported that the plane set off on Wednesday at 7:55 a.m. Azerbaijan Standard Time (AST) and crashed at 10:28 a.m. AST.

“The aircraft was exposed to strong GPS jamming which made the aircraft transmit bad ADS-B data. At (8:40 a.m. AST) we lost the ADS-B signal,” Flightradar24 concluded. “At (10:07 a.m. AST) we picked up the ADS-B signal again before it crashed at (10:28 a.m. AST).”

Flight #J28243 that crashed near Aktau Airport in Kazakhstan is an Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer ERJ-190 with registration 4K-AZ65.#J28243 took off from Baku at 03:55 UTC time and was flying to Grozny. The aircraft was exposed to strong GPS jamming which made the aircraft… pic.twitter.com/rM1Q0jmMPt

— Flightradar24 (@flightradar24) December 25, 2024

Flightradar24 also provided a 3D flight track.

We have updated our post on #J28243 to include local pressure (1025 hPa) altitude corrections for the ADS-B data. ADS-B data is only reported in Standard pressure (1013.25 hPa). https://t.co/ECZ3sHa1Zg pic.twitter.com/aQhMC3j9lf

— Flightradar24 (@flightradar24) December 26, 2024

The Azerbaijanian Caliber news outlet concurred with the Flightradar24 assessment about interference from Russian electronic warfare (EW) systems.

After reportedly being damaged by the Russian SAM, the jet’s communications systems were “completely paralyzed” by Russian electronic warfare systems, according to Caliber. “This disruption caused the aircraft to disappear from radar within Russian airspace and only reappeared in the area of the Caspian Sea.”

Caliber added that according to Russian sources, “at the time of the flight over Chechnya, Russian air defense systems were attempting to shoot down Ukrainian drones. The head of the Security Council of the Chechen Republic, Khamzat Kadyrov, confirmed the drone attack on Grozny on the morning of December 25, stating that there were no casualties or damage. In this case, the Russian side should have closed its airspace to civilian aircraft, but this was not done. Why a no-fly zone was not declared over Chechnya remains a significant question.”

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov warned against jumping to conclusions that the Russians fired at the jet.

“It would be wrong to put forward any hypotheses before the investigation’s conclusions,” he argued. “We, of course, will not do this, and no one should do this. We need to wait until the investigation is completed.”

A regional Kazakh official appeared to acknowledge Thursday that the investigation is looking into whether Russian air defenses downed the plane but said it is too soon to offer a definitive assessment.

Mangystau Regional Transport Prosecutor Abylaibek Ordabayev said they have not yet come to any conclusions about whether that played a role, Reuters reported.

Azerbaijanian President Ilham Aliyev said he learned of the crash while he was flying to Russia to attend the informal summit of the heads of state of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) member countries in St. Petersburg on Dec. 25. He promptly ordered his plane to return to Baku and ordered a criminal investigation of the crash. Like the Russians and Kazakhs, he urged caution before determining the cause.

“The commission’s task is to fully investigate the matter, examine the causes of the crash and all its details, and provide information both to me and to the Azerbaijani public,” he said. “According to the information provided to me, the AZAL airline plane, flying on the Baku-Grozny route, changed its course due to worsening weather conditions and began heading toward Aktau airport, where the crash occurred during landing. There are videos of the plane crash available in the media and on social networks, and everyone can watch them. However, the reasons for the crash are not yet known to us. There are various theories, but I believe it is premature to discuss them. The matter must be thoroughly investigated. A criminal case has been launched by the Prosecutor General’s Office, and naturally, the Azerbaijani public will be regularly informed about both the results of the commission’s work and the progress of the criminal case.”

That anyone survived the crash at all is amazing in itself. It speaks volumes about the pilots’ ability to fly the stricken jet for nearly 300 miles, including nearly 190 miles over a large body of water, reportedly with disrupted communications and likely by using thrust to help the flight because the left horizontal stabilizer was reportedly rendered inoperable by the shrapnel.

Captain Igor Kshnyakin, co-pilot Aleksandr Kalyaninov and purser Hokuma Aliyeva were killed in the crash, according to Euronews, while the other two flight attendants, Zulfugar Asadov and Aidan Rahimli, reportedly survived and were being treated in hospital on Thursday.

The crew was hailed as heroes for their ability to maintain flight and keep the passengers relatively calm.

Kshnyakin and Kalyaninov “displayed remarkable airmanship, according to experts, as they managed to fly the stricken plane across the Caspian Sea and crash landing just 3 kilometers short of the Aktau airport runway,” Euronews noted.

In a Tweet, the airline provided a list of the crew and passengers on the aircraft.

AZAL-ın J2-8243 nömrəli Bakı-Qroznı reysində olan sərnişinlərin və ekipaj üzlərinin siyahısı:

1.Ağayev Ramin

2.Əhmədov Rəşad

3.Əlimirzəyeva Xədicə

4.Əlimirzoyev Əli

5.Əliyev Zamin İdris

6.Anqbazova Maleyka

7.Arsbayeva Ceyran

8.Arsbayeva Madina

9.Asanov Rinat

10.Atsayeva Zaira… pic.twitter.com/8sUqY73Kb7

— AZAL – Azerbaijan Airlines (@azalofficial) December 25, 2024

This is not the first time Russia has been accused of downing an airliner.

In September 2016, a Dutch-led Joint Investigation Team tasked with figuring out what happened to Malaysian Airlines Flight 17 (MH17) on July 17th, 2014 concluded that a SA-11 Buk surface-to-air missile system downed the hapless airliner, and that weapon was sent into Ukraine from Russia and removed shortly after the engagement.

The site where the missile was fired has also been officially pinpointed as just outside the village of Pervomaiskyi, which was held by pro-Russian forces at the time. After the shootdown, in which all 298 lives aboard MH17 were lost, the Buk system was quickly moved back into Russian territory the next day, according to the report

“After the BUK missile had been fired, the BUK-TELAR initially drove off under its own power,” the report concluded. “A short time later it was reloaded onto the Volvo truck and transported back to the Russian border. During the night, the convoy crossed the border into the territory of the Russian Federation.”

There have been several relatively recent cases where air defenses, under pressure of an ongoing or possibly impending attack, have taken down the wrong aircraft.

Ukraine International Airlines flight PS752, a Boeing 737-800, crashed shortly after taking off from Tehran Imam Khomeini International Airport at approximately 6:12 AM local time on Jan. 8, 2020 after being struck by two Iranian air defense missiles. The flight was heading to the Ukrainian capital Kyiv and had 176 crew and passengers on board, all of whom died in the subsequent crash. Video footage that subsequently emerged showed the plane engulfed in a fireball before it hit the ground. The shootdown immediately followed an unprecedented Iranian missile strike targeting U.S. forces in Iraq and Iranian air defenses were on extreme alert anticipating the country would be hit in retaliation. You can read more about that here.

Rescue workers carry the body of a victim of a Ukrainian plane crash. On January 8th, 2020 Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752 was scheduled to depart from Tehran to Canada via Kyiv. The Boeing 737-800 was shot down shortly after taking off from Imam Khomeini International Airport by two missiles fired by the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC). All 176 passengers and crew were perished. (Photo by Javad / Middle East Images / Middle East Images via AFP) JAVAD

More recently, a U.S. Navy F/A-18F Super Hornet was accidentally shot down by a missile fired by the U.S. Navy Ticonderoga class cruiser USS Gettysburg over the Red Sea. The jet, downed early on December 22 local time, was returning to the aircraft carrier Harry S. Truman during the middle of what a U.S. official told The War Zone was a complex attack.

“After successfully returning from its initial mission, an F/A-18F launched again to provide air defense support from OWAs and ASCMs that were inbound to the force,” a U.S. official told us. “They were shot down while recovery of remaining aircraft was underway.” According to Fox News, a second Super Hornet narrowly avoided being struck by a missile from the Gettysburg.

It may take a while before a definitive conclusion can be reached about what happened to Azerbaijan Airlines Flight JS-8432. However, preliminary reports seem to indicate that once again, neither anti-aircraft systems nor the people operating them, are infallible in the heat of battle.

Update: 5:42 PM Eastern –

Rasim Musabekov, a member of Azerbaijan’s parliament, told the Azerbaijani news agency Turan that the plane was fired on while in the skies over Grozny and urged Russia to offer an official apology, The Washington Post reported.

“Those who did this must face criminal charges,” Musabekov was quoted by Turan as saying, adding that compensations to the victims should also be paid. “If it doesn’t happen, relations will be affected.”

Azerbaijani MP Rasim Musabekov stated that Russia must apologise for the attack on a civilian airliner using air defense systems over Chechnya. pic.twitter.com/7uReBver3n

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) December 26, 2024

Contact the author: howard@thewarzone.com

Howard Altman

Senior Staff Writer

twz.com · by Howard Altman

4. Anti-Drone Weapon With 24 Barrels Firing Buckshot-Like Rounds Emerges On Russian Buggies

Necessity is the mother...

Anti-Drone Weapon With 24 Barrels Firing Buckshot-Like Rounds Emerges On Russian Buggies

Shotguns are popular counter-drone weapons on both sides of the conflict in Ukraine, but questions have been raised about their efficacy.

Joseph Trevithick

Posted 18 Hours Ago

twz.com · by Joseph Trevithick

Russian forces have begun using improvised counter-drone buggies armed with a weapon made up of 24 barrels that fire shotgun-like ammunition, as well as six AK-series infantry rifles on a single mount. The cluster of shot-firing barrels highlights how shotguns have become a go-to option for both sides of the conflict in Ukraine to help provide local defense against uncrewed aerial threats, but also the limitations of those weapons in this role.

A video from the Russian Ministry of Defense, seen below, shows a pair of the new counter-drone vehicles. An accompanying official post on the Telegram social media network says they are based around a chassis taken from an unspecified model of the long-popular 4×4 Lada Niva series.

The most advanced development of Russian air defense systems. The Russian Ministry of Defense presented an "anti-drone buggy." The buggy is armed with a turret made of 6 assault rifles. The second system (which looks like a mini-grad) is most likely welded together barrels for… pic.twitter.com/C0bgYlJ7I7

— Special Kherson Cat (@bayraktar_1love) December 26, 2024

The cluster of 24 barrels is installed on a remotely operated turret on the top of the front of the vehicle’s open center frame. Though it evokes the look of a small multiple rocket launcher, a machine translation of the Russian Ministry of Defense’s Telegram post says that these “shoot buckshot.” They could well just be repurposed shotgun barrels. It is unclear how this weapon is aimed.

Another look at the 24-barrel cluster on one of the Russian anti-drone vehicles. Russian MoD capture

Then there is the manually operated mount at the rear of the vehicle with the six AK-pattern guns installed in a row. These look to be 7.62x39mm AK-12s based on what can be seen of their features, such as distinctive muzzle devices and front sights. The only aid for aiming the rifles looks to be a large open cross-hair-type sight.

What appear to be six AK-12 rifles also mounted on one of the anti-drone buggies. Russian MoD capture

A stock shot of an AK-12 rifle. Kalashnikov Group

Other arrangements involving multiple AK-series rifles for use against drones, including ones mounted on vehicles, have already been seen in use by Russian and Ukrainian forces in the past.

Un cañón antiaéreo improvisado de las Fuerzas Armadas de Ucrania a partir de 6 AK-74. pic.twitter.com/du42rJl2iu

— Fibrik (@Fibrik_Oficial) July 7, 2023

Another style of a Russian anti-drone buggy with a mount armed with six AK-12s at the rear. This vehicle also has a pair of what looks to be 7.62x54mmR PK-series machine guns on a remotely operated mount at the front. Alexander Reka/TASS

Another multi-AK-mount in Russian service. This example has five 5.45x39mm AK-74 rifles. Alexei Konovalov/TASS

The Russian Ministry of Defense says the new buggies can also employ “heat traps,” a term typically used to refer to thermal countermeasure capabilities like decoy flares. There are launchers at the front of the vehicles, but what exactly they fire is unclear. Flares could be used to try to blind optics, especially infrared and other night vision cameras, on enemy drones.

A screen capture from the Russian MoD video showing one of the buggies firing its front-mounted launchers. Debris from the launch can be seen to the right. Russian MoD capture

The daily use of various tiers of drones, including first-person view (FPV) kamikaze types and ones that drop small munitions on their targets, by both Russia and Ukraine, has come to be a central symbol of the ongoing fighting between the two countries. There is now a steady cycle of development of anti-drone countermeasures, and then of new uncrewed capabilities in response, on both sides.

Russian correspondent hides from a Ukranian drone … it looks for him like in a scary movie. pic.twitter.com/XPPQGzDzn0

— Lord Bebo (@MyLordBebo) September 11, 2024

Reposting this video showing a Russian T-80BVM tank with a roof screen and deploying smoke surviving multiple FPV hits and misses.https://t.co/nS5v1Vx15F https://t.co/YpwuUrelOT pic.twitter.com/A6ethi6l0O

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) December 13, 2023

A Ukrainian drone from the 79th Air Assault Brigade drops a 40mm HEDP grenade on a Russian UR-77 Meteorit, causing a catastrophic payload explosion. pic.twitter.com/SsaQCKXsNL

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) August 14, 2023

The ubiquity of drones has also created a demand for defensive capabilities that can be widely and quickly fielded down to the smallest units. As already noted, the shotgun barrel cluster on the new Russian anti-drone vehicles highlights traditional shotguns, including commercial sporting and hunting types, being widely fielded by both sides of the conflict in Ukraine to help meet these anti-drone needs.

Russian soldiers at a training range in Rostov oblast training to counter UAVs with shotguns. 14/https://t.co/TA1154jwdZ pic.twitter.com/6p94zcF7xR

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) December 23, 2024

A member of the recently raised Western Battalion (affiliated with the Kalinouski Regt.) engaging a drone with shotgun.

Likely fairly effective against lower flying drones, definitely takes some still though.#Ukraine #UkraineWar #UAV #SALW pic.twitter.com/4rlB8ph76x

— Matthew Moss | Historical Firearms (@historicfirearm) November 4, 2023

Despite their widespread use, questions have emerged about the effectiveness of shotguns, specifically, in the anti-drone role. A video, seen below, emerged online earlier this month showing Ukrainian service members testing commercially available shotgun ammunition against small quadcopter-type drones with poor results.

Ukrainian soldiers test the effects of shotgun cartridges on attacking FPV drones.

Apparently knocking down an FPV with a shotgun is a challenge. pic.twitter.com/UIa4jbigNb

— Roy (@GrandpaRoy2) December 12, 2024

“A shotgun does not penetrate, does not damage the FPV drone,” a Ukrainian service member says at one point in the video. “He hit the antenna [on the drone], but it didn’t stop him anyway,” another individual says in the clip.

Firing a burst of shotgun shells at once from a cluster of barrels could help maximize total damage to the target, as well as increase the overall likelihood of scoring hits. However, the effective range of typical buckshot shotgun ammunition, as well as its penetrative capabilities at longer distances, has long been a limiting factor in the battlefield use of shotguns, broadly speaking. As a prime example of this, the U.S. military’s abortive late Cold War-era Close Assault Weapon System (CAWS) combat shotgun program notably also involved development of new ammunition types to try to provide better terminal effects at extended ranges. The War Zone more recently highlighted exactly these issues after the U.S. Marine Corps expressed interest earlier this year in the possibility of acquiring shotgun pellet-like ammunition for its standard service rifles to help defend against drones. New specialized ammunition could still be a way to improve the utility of shotguns and other small arms against drones.

Pictures of the shotgun German gunmaker Heckler & Koch developed in cooperation with the Olin Corporation in the United States for the U.S. military’s CAWS program (at left) and special metal-cased buckshot rounds that went with it (at right). Heckler & Koch

At the same time, engaging small and highly maneuverable drones like FPV kamikaze types with small arms can be a tall order, in general. The U.S. military, among others, has been fielding computerized gun sights on a limited level to help individual shooters better engage uncrewed aerial threats. The Marine Corps has also at least tested another counter-drone system for existing standard infantry rifles that includes an automatically moving buttstock, as you can read more about here. Still, at least when it comes to the U.S. Army, “kinetic defeat” capabilities involving an “augmented primary weapon optic … are considered [a] last line of defense for a squad-sized element,” according to a recent contracting notice.

A promotional image showing a rifle equipped with Smart Shooter’s SMASH 2000L (also now known as the SMASH 3000), a computerized optic multiple branches of the U.S. military are fielding now to individual shooters engaging drones. Smart Shooter A promotional image showing an individual holding an M4-style carbine equipped with a Smash 2000L/Smash 3000 optic. Smart Shooter

A US Marine aims an M27 Infantry Automatic Rifle equipped with the ZeroMark Fire Control System (FCS), which includes an automatically moving buttstock. USMC

When it comes to the 24-barrel weapon on the new Russian counter-drone vehicles, there is also a question of how quickly and easily that system can be reloaded after firing.

It is important to stress that multiple layers of capabilities would offer the best defense against drones, even just localized attacks by smaller kamikaze types. What the optimal mix of anti-drone systems might be remains a hot topic of debate globally. Options that incorporate guns do look set to be part of that ecosystem in the foreseeable future.

Shotguns and other weapons that fire similar pellet-filled ammunition, like the one that has now emerged on the Russian counter-drone buggies, are still very much in the mix when it comes to protecting against uncrewed aerial threats despite questions about their overall utility.

Contact the author: joe@twz.com

twz.com · by Joseph Trevithick

5. This Army unit is the first to field new company and battalion drones

This Army unit is the first to field new company and battalion drones

militarytimes.com · by Todd South · December 26, 2024

Soldiers with the 10th Mountain Division, which is currently deployed in Romania, recently became the first Army unit to field the service’s newest reconnaissance drones.

The 317th Brigade Engineer Battalion, 3rd Brigade Combat Team, out of Fort Drum, New York, employed the Skydio and GhostX systems during training operations at Mihail Kogalniceanu Air Base, Romania, according to an Army release.

The new drones fit different mission profiles at the tactical level.

The Skydio X10D drone is a short-range recon aircraft that can fly up to 5 kilometers and stay aloft for approximately 30 minutes, according to the release. Typically, the Skydio is deployed by infantry and scout platoons on dismounted patrols, providing soldiers with a better snapshot of their immediate area during mission planning.

The GhostX, made by Anduril, goes a bit farther. It can fly up to 15 kilometers and stay in the air for an hour. This platform is geared toward a company commander’s needs in a larger area of operation.

Make counter-drone training as routine as marksmanship: Army general

A 10th Mountain Division soldier-built application helps troops train for better reaction to drone attacks.

Soldiers flying the new drones, meanwhile, nabbed new skills during the operation.

“You have to be a qualified aircraft operator before you’re able to put the aircraft in the air, so we run an initial qualification program for multiple units in our brigade,” said Staff Sgt. Kevin Sweeny, counter-drone NCO in charge for Delta Company, 317th BEB.

During the late November training, the unit qualified 132 Skydio operators, according to the release.

“They can take the [Sydio] aircraft out of its case, assemble it, mission plan and get it in the air in less than 10 minutes,” Sweeny said.

Every company in the 3rd BCT is slated to receive a Skydio system, with next steps expected to include using the systems in training at the Joint Multinational Readiness Center in Hoehenfels, Germany.

Spc. Elijah Jean-Paul, with Delta Company, 317 Engineer Battalion, 3rd Brigade, 10th Mountain Division performs drone operator qualifications Mihail Kogalniceanu Airbase, Romania. (Sgt Kourtney Nunnery/Army)

“The end state of this whole exercise is to test the personnel, the structure of the platoon and the communication between the squads and how we work together as a whole,” said 1st Lt. Alexis Gavrillis, an intelligence officer in the battalion.

When it comes to implementing the GhostX drone, the system is slated to go to each of the battalions in the BCT.

While the Army began including counter-drone training as part of basic training this year, the field training this particular outfit recently concluded is likely to be replicated throughout many more Army units.

The drone certification process is MOS-agnostic. Soldiers with the training can apply it in their units when needed, regardless of their primary job.

Defense News reported in September that the Army awarded Anduril Industries and Performance Drone Works a $14.42 million contract for its small drone program.

The Army recently released a “sources sought” notice for industry to solicit pitches on an interim capability for tactical drones at the brigade level, according to a service release.

About Todd South

Todd South has written about crime, courts, government and the military for multiple publications since 2004 and was named a 2014 Pulitzer finalist for a co-written project on witness intimidation. Todd is a Marine veteran of the Iraq War.

6. Ukraine’s military intelligence says North Korean troops are suffering heavy battlefield losses

Ukraine’s military intelligence says North Korean troops are suffering heavy battlefield losses

AP · December 26, 2024

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — North Korean troops are suffering heavy losses in the fighting in Russia’s Kursk region and facing logistical difficulties as a result of Ukrainian attacks, Ukraine’s military intelligence said Thursday.

The intelligence agency, known under its acronym GUR, said Ukrainian strikes near Novoivanovka inflicted heavy casualties on North Korean units. It said North Korean troops also faced supply issues and even shortages of drinking water.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said earlier this week that 3,000 North Korean troops have been killed and wounded in the fighting in the Kursk region. It marked the first significant estimate by Ukraine of North Korean casualties several weeks after Kyiv announced that North Korea had sent 10,000 to 12,000 troops to Russia to help it in the almost 3-year war.

The casualty disclosure came as the Biden administration was pressing to send as much military aid as possible to Ukraine before President-elect Donald Trump takes over in January.

Ukrainian forces launched an incursion into the Kursk region in August, dealing a significant blow to Russia’s prestige and forcing it to deploy some of its troops from eastern Ukraine, where they were pressing a slow-moving offensive.

The Russian army has been able to reclaim some territory in the Kursk region from Ukrainian forces, but has failed to fully dislodge them.

At the same time, Russia has sought to break Ukraine’s resistance with waves of strikes with cruise missiles and drones against Ukraine’s power grid and other infrastructure.

The latest attack on Christmas morning involved 78 missiles and 106 drones, striking power facilities, Ukraine’s air force said. It claimed to have intercepted 59 missiles and 54 drones and jammed 52 other drones.

On Thursday, Russia attacked Ukraine with 31 exploding drones. Twenty were shot down and another 11 didn’t reach their target due to jamming, the Ukrainian air force said.

As part of the daily barrage, Russian forces also struck a central market in Nikopol in the Dnipropetrovsk region with a drone, wounding eight people, according to local authorities.

Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened Thursday that Russia could again hit Ukraine with the new Oreshnik hypersonic ballistic missile that was first used in a Nov. 21 strike on the Ukrainian city of Dnipro.

Speaking to reporters, Putin said Russia has just a few Oreshnik missiles, but added that it wouldn’t hesitate to use them on Ukraine.

“We aren’t in a rush to use them, because those are powerful weapons intended for certain tasks,” he said. “But we wouldn’t exclude their use today or tomorrow if necessary.”

Putin said Russia has launched serial production of the new weapon and reaffirmed a plan to deploy some of Oreshnik missiles to Russia’s neighbor and ally Belarus. Belarus’ authoritarian President Alexander Lukashenko told reporters Thursday that his country could host 10 or more.

Ukraine struck back with drone strikes of its own. Ukraine’s Center for Strategic Communications said the military struck a plant in Kamensk-Shakhtynsky in Russia’s southern Rostov region that produces propellant for ballistic missiles.

“This strike is part of a comprehensive campaign to weaken the capabilities of the Russian armed forces to carry out terrorist attacks against Ukrainian civilians,” it said in a statement.

SAMYA KULLAB

Kullab is an Associated Press reporter covering Ukraine since June 2023. Before that, she covered Iraq and the wider Middle East from her base in Baghdad since joining the AP in 2019.

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AP · December 26, 2024

7. Russia arrests 4 suspects accused of plotting to kill top military officers on Ukraine's orders

Subversion.

Russia arrests 4 suspects accused of plotting to kill top military officers on Ukraine's orders

Russia’s top security agency says that it has arrested several suspects accused of involvement in an alleged Ukrainian plot to assassinate senior military officers

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/12/26/russia-ukraine-arrest-plot-military-officers/7ffefbba-c375-11ef-a1ab-d6b7af7c1978_story.html?utm

December 26, 2024 at 5:38 a.m. ESTYesterday at 5:38 a.m. EST

Investigators work near a scooter at the place where Lt. General Igor Kirillov, the head of Russia’s Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Defence Forces and his assistant Ilya Polikarpov were killed by an explosive device planted close to a residential apartment’s block in Moscow, Russia, Tuesday, Dec. 17, 2024. (AP Photo) (Uncredited/AP)

By Associated Press

MOSCOW — Russia’s top security agency said Thursday that it has arrested several suspects accused of involvement in an alleged Ukrainian plot to assassinate senior military officers, an announcement that follows the killing of a top Russian general last week.

Get concise answers to your questions. Try Ask The Post AI.

The Federal Security Service, a top KGB successor known under its Russian acronym FSB, said in a statement carried by Russian news agencies that it had arrested four Russians accused of making preparations to kill senior Defense Ministry officials.

The FSB said that the suspected organizers of the attacks were planning to kill one of the senior officers using a remotely controlled car bomb. It added that another top military official was to be assassinated by an explosive device hidden in an envelope. The agency didn’t name the military officers who were targeted in the alleged plot.

8. Russia is intensifying its air war in Ukraine. A secretive factory is ramping up drone production to fuel the offensive

Russia is intensifying its air war in Ukraine. A secretive factory is ramping up drone production to fuel the offensive | CNN

CNN · by Clare Sebastian, Vasco Cotovio, Allegra Goodwin · December 27, 2024

CNN —

On a Kyiv rooftop in late November, a small group of volunteers in mismatched fatigues keep anxious watch. By day, all are judges in Ukraine’s highest courts, but once a fortnight they come together as a makeshift air defense unit, armed only with a pair of Soviet-era machine guns to shoot down swarms of drones.

It’s “the cheapest way,” said Yuriy Chumak, one of the volunteers and a serving Supreme Court justice, highlighting Ukraine’s reluctance to use expensive, Western-supplied missiles against comparatively low-cost unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).

Chumak and his comrades shrug off the risk, keeping their spirits up with tea and jokes to while away a 24-hour shift. But it’s clear their work has grown exponentially more dangerous in recent months as Russia has ramped up its drone offensive, terrorizing Ukrainian cities on an almost daily basis.

Over the last six months, Russia’s drone attacks have increased from around 400 in May to more than 2,400 in November, according to a CNN tally of data from Ukraine’s armed forces. There have been at least 1,700 drone strikes so far in December.

Firefighters respond to a Russian drone strike on an apartment building in Ternopil, Ukraine, on December 2.

State Emergency Service of Ukraine/Reuters

As the onslaught escalates, CNN has discovered new details about the expansion of a secretive factory fueling Moscow’s drone war. The plant at the Alabuga Special Economic Zone, in Russia’s southern Tatarstan region, has significantly scaled up its production of Iranian-designed attack and surveillance drones, using a range of Chinese components, and recruiting a very young, low-skilled workforce of Russian teenagers and African women, according to CNN’s analysis of associated social media accounts and assessments by Ukrainian defense intelligence sources.

The sources, who spoke to CNN anonymously out of fear for their safety, said that the factory is now also producing thousands of “decoy” drones, designed to exhaust Ukrainian defenses. Satellite imagery analyzed by CNN and experts shows that two additional buildings have been constructed at the site, and security increased.

Neither the Russian Ministry of Defense nor Alabuga have not responded to CNN’s requests for comment about drone production at the factory.

The findings offer a rare window into Russia’s booming defense industry, which is, according to a recent estimate by Germany’s defense minister, outproducing the European Union in terms of weapons and ammunition by a factor of four. That has put Ukraine in a precarious position, at a moment when it is in more urgent need than ever before. Just weeks away from US President-elect Donald Trump’s return to the White House on a promise to end the war, future American military assistance for Kyiv is in doubt.

After Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, it began importing Iranian Shahed drones. But by early 2023, Moscow and Tehran had inked a $1.75 billion deal for Russia to make the drones domestically, according to leaked documents provided to CNN by Ukrainian cyber intelligence group InformNapalm.

The Alabuga Special Economic Zone, which lies around 600 miles east of Moscow, was originally set up in 2006 to attract Western companies with generous tax breaks. But, after the war started, several of its major tenants left. Part of the site has significantly expanded since it switched to military production, satellite imagery shows.

Alabuga is now the main plant for producing the Shahed-136 drone – or Geran-2, as Russia refers to it – with an agreement to produce 6,000 units by September 2025, according to the leaked documents. Alabuga appears to have already fulfilled that contract. The factory produced 2,738 Shahed drones in 2023, and more than doubled that number in the first nine months of 2024, producing 5,760 between January and September, according to the Ukrainian defense intelligence sources.

The Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security, which has been tracking Alabuga since 2022, believes that the 6,000 drones were manufactured about a year ahead of schedule.

“They’re moving fast and you’re seeing it across the entire military production industries of Russia,” David Albright, a former UN weapons inspector who founded the institute, told CNN. “They themselves are not making the high-tech stuff, they import what they need to do that, but they’re able to boost production of things that are easier to make, and drones fundamentally are not that hard.”

In addition to the Shaheds, it appears that Alabuga has been manufacturing low-tech, “decoy” drones since the summer, the sources in Ukraine’s defense intelligence told CNN. Known as the “Gerbera,” the decoy drones are made of plywood and foam and mimic the Shahed’s distinctive triangular shape.

“The Russian military discovered relatively quickly that Ukrainian air defenses can be quite capable of shooting down the majority of Shaheds,” said Samuel Bendett, an adviser at CNA, a nonprofit research organization based in Virginia, adding that, “Russia needed a weapon, a system that could basically present multitudes of false targets for the Ukrainian defenders.”

Russia is aiming to produce around 10,000 Gerbera drones by the end of 2024, almost double the number of Shaheds, according to the Ukrainian defense intelligence sources. Cost is likely a major factor driving this strategy, given that one Gerbera is estimated to be 10 times less to produce than a Shahed, the sources said.

Yury Chumak, a Ukrainian air defense volunteer, told CNN he has witnessed Russia’s “rapidly changing tactics.” Some Russian drones are now so basic they aren't even armed with explosives, he said.

CNN

Chumak said it’s impossible to tell the difference between true Shaheds and the decoys on the radar, but that many of the incoming UAVs appear to be unarmed. “If we see the drone on a map or by our eyes, we try to shoot it down… cheap or expensive,” he told CNN. He estimates if Russia fires 150 drones in a night, only 20 to 30 will be Shaheds.

There’s evidence Russia has started trialing thermobaric warheads, which produce more powerful and destructive blast waves, on the UAVs. At the end of October, the Kyiv Scientific Research Institute for Forensic Expertise revealed they had detected traces of thermobaric munitions, also known as vacuum bombs, on fragments of Shahed drones. “If it hits in a confined space, that is indoors, it has a much higher destructive force there than a fragmentation munition,” chief forensic expert at the Kyiv institute, Oleksiy Stepaniuk said.

With the help of volunteers like Chumak, Ukraine is still putting up a solid defense. Only 5% of Shahed or similar drones hit their targets between August and October, according to Ukraine’s Armed Forces. But as attacks increase in scale, the challenge is growing.

A firefighter assesses the damage to a medical centre in Kyiv, Ukraine, on November 7, after a Russian drone strike.

Valentyn Ogirenko/Reuters

Resident Oksana Tereshchenko, 59, examines her bedroom after a drone strike in Kyiv, Ukraine, on October 30.

Anatolii Stepanov/AFP/Getty Images

A Ukrainian defense source familiar with the situation told CNN that there have recently been cases when “it was necessary to shoot down drones with advanced anti-aircraft missile systems,” reflecting the quick decisions the military must make on how to use precious resources.

Drone factory expands, increases security

Satellite images taken of Alabuga over the past nine months offer stark proof of the program’s expansion.

In June 2023, the US National Security Council released a satellite image of the complex and identified two buildings as being involved in drone manufacturing. Internal documents obtained by the Institute for Science and International Security confirmed the location and revealed that Alabuga was the main party responsible for the production and supply of Shahed drones to the Russian military.

Between March and September, two new buildings appeared next door to those originally identified by the US, increasing the footprint of the manufacturing site by 55%, according to CNN analysis of satellite imagery.

While it’s unclear what exactly the new buildings are for, they are within the security cordon around the two original structures, suggesting they are part of the same operation, Albright told CNN.

Between June and September, construction began on what appear to be elevated walkways connecting the new and original buildings, which were completed by November, according to satellite imagery and Albright’s research. Construction of another walkway is in progress and looks set to link the original buildings with nearby worker dormitories, one of which was struck in a long-range Ukrainian drone attack in April. Over a dozen people were injured in the strike, Russian state media reported.

Albright and his team also identified mesh on top of all four buildings, which they assess to be “anti-drone” cages designed to shield the facility, indicating a growing concern over safety at the site. “Alabuga inside has never had security,” he said. “And what we saw was the creation of an internal security perimeter… because now it’s a military operation.”

Ukraine’s defense intelligence said on Monday that an Alabuga warehouse storing Shahed drone components worth $16 million was destroyed in a “mysterious fire,” noting that it was a blow to Russia’s “military industrial complex” and underscoring the active nature of the fight.

As Alabuga focuses on ramping up production, another partner appears to be stepping in to help ease sanctions-related supply chain issues: China.

Between September 2023 and June 2024, 34 Chinese companies “cooperated” with Alabuga, signing contracts totaling around 700 million yuan, or over 8 billion rubles ($96 million), sources in Ukrainian defense intelligence told CNN. The sources said those companies supplied parts and materials, production equipment for UAV manufacturing, and one even provided jamming equipment to protect Alabuga against drone attacks.

The Gerbera drone is based on a Chinese prototype from a company called Skywalker Technology, which is also supplying the “kits” to build them, according to the sources. An initial contract for 2,000 kits was signed in May, with Skywalker offering to supply another 8,000 in July, they said.

A video shared on Telegram by "Stalin's Falcons," which appears to be a new Russian army drone unit, shows what it describes as the "little sister" of the Geran: "the Gerbera UAV."

Telegram / Stalins_Sokol

CNN has reached out to Skywalker Technology for comment but has not received a response.

That Chinese electronics have been found in Russian drones is not a secret, but Beijing maintains it has never provided lethal weapons to any party in the war in Ukraine. In response to CNN’s request for comment on the drones, the Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson’s office said in a statement that China maintains an “objective and impartial stance on the Ukraine issue,” adding that the country “strictly controls the export of dual-use goods for military and civilian uses.”

US National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby told CNN that Alabuga’s drones were clearly having an impact on the battlefield in Ukraine, and China’s involvement was a big concern. “We’ve made clear to the Chinese that although they are not providing lethal aid, they are selling components – including drone components,” he said.

The US has already sanctioned two Chinese companies believed to be directly involved in developing and producing long-range attack drones for Russia; dozens more China-based firms have been sanctioned for supplying Russia with dual-use goods and components that can be used to make weapons, including drones.

And China’s role at Alabuga looks set to grow even further. Just a few miles from the site a new transport hub is under construction. “The Deng Xiaoping Logistics Сomplex,” named after China’s late leader, is a direct rail link between Russia and China intended to carry up to 100,000 containers a year, according to a promotional video.

Russian President Vladimir Putin raised it in a meeting with his counterpart Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the October BRICS summit. Just over a week later, Alabuga reported the first test-train was ceremonially dispatched to China, carrying 76 containers of Russian agricultural products. “Given the pressure from sanctions and the constantly changing environment,” said one Alabuga official quoted in the official account, “we recognize the need to establish a logistical buffer for industry.”

The secretive factory fueling Moscow's drone war in Ukraine

04:38 - Source: CNN

An acting intelligence officer with Ukraine’s defense intelligence agency, who goes by the call sign “Orest” and could only speak to CNN on the condition of anonymity, said the logistics center was only conceived after Russia’s full-scale invasion. “We understand that such a direct transport connection with China can be directly used to transport deficit components required for the production of UAVs, in particular,” he said.

Ukraine’s sanctions commissioner, Vladyslav Vlasiuk, said that, taken together, it is proof more can be done to curtail the supply chain fueling Alabuga’s breakneck expansion. The United States, United Kingdom and EU have imposed sanctions on the Special Economic Zone, with the US also sanctioning affiliated companies, and individuals in key positions. But Vlasiuk told CNN that Ukraine is going further – targeting an “ecosystem” of several dozen companies involved in various aspects of drone production and would like Ukraine’s allies to do the same.

Vlasiuk said Kyiv has communicated its concerns to the Chinese government, but that Beijing was “not exactly ready for conversations on this topic,” adding that the situation was “unfortunate.”

Recruiting Russian teens and African women

Frontline casualties, and an exodus of fighting-age men have strained Russia’s already limited workforce to a breaking point.

To fill the labor shortage and sustain its expansion, Alabuga has turned to low-skilled workers, employing Russian teenagers at Alabuga Polytechnic, a technical school set up on the site in 2021, and recruiting young, foreign women, most of them from African countries, via an online program called “Alabuga Start.” The factory touts high salaries, technological skills and futuristic facilities, and for Russian men, the chance to avoid national military service – a huge draw in wartime.

“Still thinking of going into 10th grade?” asks a voice-over in a glossy recruitment video, which was posted on Telegram in July. “Join the super-elite program, air navigation and drone programming at Alabuga Polytechnic. And help the Stalin’s Falcons.” The video then cuts from teenagers in a laboratory setting to a military parade. The “Stalin’s Falcons,” named after the elite Russian World War II-era fighter pilots, appears to be a new Russian army drone unit, which Ukrainian defense intelligence sources believe may be directly associated with Alabuga.

A recruitment video for Alabuga Polytechnic from July, calling on students to apply to to learn how to manufacture, program and fly UAVs.

Alabuga Polytechnic/Telegram

A video shared in June 2023 on the Alabuga Start Program Telegram channel touting work in production of "composite materials" and a "rich corporate culture."

Alabuga/YouTube

Other videos shared on Alabuga Polytechnic’s TikTok and Telegram accounts show off high-tech laboratories, brand-new dormitories and a team-building exercise described as “the biggest military-patriotic paintball tournament in Russia,” where students reenact WWII battles.

Meanwhile, the Alabuga Start program promotes life-changing opportunities. One video shows a young woman polishing what appears to be a drone and then launching it, promising that successful employees can progress to Alabuga Polytechnic.

And there’s more than just career growth on offer. Another video on its website, titled “Work and marriage,” shows a young African woman arriving at Alabuga, meeting a man, and becoming pregnant. Alabuga Start’s “HR specialists” have traveled extensively to African countries, meeting local leaders and potential recruits, and in some cases holding events, according to footage shared on associated social media accounts.

But there is evidence life at Alabuga is nowhere near as utopian as these posts suggest. When it sanctioned Alabuga in February, the US Treasury noted: “SEZ Alabuga has exploited underage students from an affiliated polytechnic university as laborers to assemble these attack UAVs in exploitative conditions.” Russian independent investigative news outlets Protokol and Razvorot published a joint investigation in July 2023 detailing long hours, and tough punishments inflicted on teenagers as young as 15 at the facility.

Albright says the increasing pressures of wartime production, and Alabuga’s own quest for profits haven’t helped. “I think the rapid ramp up in production led to safety and health violations and even the recruitment of underage people.”

Alabuga is now embarking on a new recruitment drive, offering salaries of up to 360,000 rubles (about $3,480) per month for “specialists” – more than four times the average monthly salary in Russia – while continuing to fill their assembly lines with students and migrants, who are paid a starting monthly salary of about 85,000 rubles (about $820), the Ukrainian defense intelligence sources told CNN. Up to 200 more African women will be recruited as part of this latest push, the sources said.

A screen grab from a promotional video shared on the Alabuga Start Program Telegram channel in June 2023, and also on Alabuga's website, showing women assembling and then launching a drone.

Alabuga/YouTube

A spokesperson from the US State Department told CNN: “This just shows how the Kremlin is not only desperate, but cruel. The Kremlin has no qualms about pursuing its own aims with no regard to the impact on the people of other sovereign countries or international human rights law.”

Posts on a private Telegram group for parents of first-year Alabuga Polytechnic students also offer revealing insights. Several parents have lamented that some students may not be getting their 10-day New Year holiday (a given for most Russians). Others say they traveled hundreds of miles to visit their children at Alabuga, only to get just a few hours with them.

“Working without holidays and days off is not normal even for adults. Psychologists, please speak up about the burden on the children in terms of physical and psychological health,” one demanded. Another mother went even further: “Alabuga polytechnic is really going to extremes, lots of violations of the law, employment codes etc… This is why my child doesn’t tell me anything, so that I’ll stay silent.”

The same woman also described how her child was called into work at midnight on the weekend, worked until 5:30 a.m. and was called back again at 10:30 a.m. Asked which field her child works in, she responded: “UAV.”

Orest, the Ukrainian defense intelligence officer, told CNN all drone assembly workers exist in a climate of secrecy. “All students involved in the productions of these UAVs live at a separate limited access compound. Once employed they sign NDAs. Their contracts say they produce ‘motorboats.’”

Concerns over safety at the facility grew after the Ukrainian drone strike in April. In the following months, parents in the Telegram group referenced frequent evacuation drills, and guidance to supply students with an “emergency bag” containing important documents, spare clothes and food in case they needed to leave in a hurry.

But little was acknowledged publicly by Alabuga about the growing risks. After the April attack, a video shared on Alabuga’s official social media accounts showed a young female employee from Kenya, saying: “You won’t scare me. Alabuga is a strong place, and we will get through this.”

CNN · by Clare Sebastian, Vasco Cotovio, Allegra Goodwin · December 27, 2024

9. Military support to detention and deportation would harm readiness

Military support to detention and deportation would harm readiness

by Stephen N. Xenakis and Harold S. Kudler, opinion contributors - 12/26/24 11:30 AM ET

https://thehill.com/opinion/5055661-military-immigration-detention/?utm_campaign=dfn-ebb&utm

Plans for the military to participate in the detention and deportation of 9 million immigrants will foreseeably undermine the well-being of current service members and future veterans while damaging the morale, reputation and readiness of our nation’s armed forces.

Americans have historically rejected attempts to muddle the distinction between military and civilian authority. The Bill of Rights was designed to guard against this. The 1878 Posse Comitatus Act (literally “the power of the nation”) forbids military participation in law enforcement without congressional approval.

As a former career Army medical officer and a retired Veterans Affairs psychiatrist with decades of clinical and policy experience, we speak out against violating this core American principle.

We have learned firsthand that ordering service members to perform policing duties in ambiguous situations without adequate training, leadership and support creates serious risks for those they detain and for the service members themselves.

Rushing to set up and operate detention facilities and their required logistical and medical support inevitably precipitates chaos and confusion. Foreseeable challenges in the proposed mission include:

— There is an insufficient number of experienced military police brigades to conduct the proposed mission. Infantry, armor and field artillery units could be assigned to augment the workforce but lack the necessary training.

— Encampments have restrictive rules of force as demonstrated during foreign peacekeeping missions. Military members may be exposed to violence, chaos and flashpoints such as detainee-on-detainee attacks or attempts by American citizens (individually or as private militias) to intervene as vigilantes.

— Research shows that service members assigned to humanitarian missions, such as providing medical support during COVID-19, suffered elevated levels of burnout, worsening mental health and increased thoughts of suicide.

— At a time when our military faces global threats and is challenged by a recruiting crisis, this mission would further stress our armed forces.

— Converting existing military bases to confine detainees would disrupt normal military operations and adversely impact readiness.

We view immigrant encampments as humanitarian operations intended to strengthen national security. Twenty years in Iraq and Afghanistan have shown that effective humanitarian operations require expert planning and execution.

Even correctional staff who have worked effectively in prisons are unprepared for the challenges to be encountered in large encampments of mixed genders, ages, cultures and English-speaking ability. Staff may reasonably fear for their own safety. This predictably leads to unsafe and unethical behavior.

Abu Ghraib provides a glaring example. A mix of active duty, Reserves troops and private contractors operated within an inadequate facility in which lines of responsibility and authority were blurred. Ultimate accountability for degrading and injurious behavior towards detainees fell on front-line service members who lacked appropriate training, leadership and support.

Military medical staff, while essential in detainee operations, may be de-skilled in such situations. This was sadly demonstrated when military psychologists were drawn into interrogation efforts at Guantánamo. Intending to save lives and ensure national security, they ultimately violated the basic clinical principle of doing no harm to those under their care.

Appropriate training and field experience in police operations is essential in maintaining the dignity and self-respect of both the detainees and those detaining them. Without adequate preparation, service members (including medical staff) will be put at significant and unnecessary risk.

The men and women of our all-volunteer force have pledged their lives to defend our people and our values. They are an ethical profession driven by a high standard of service to others. Ordering them to detain millions of men, women and children in makeshift facilities exposes them to ethical and moral challenges which may violate basic beliefs and standards.

Those who feel they have perpetrated, failed to prevent, or merely witnessed atrocious acts are at risk for intense and persistent feelings of shame and guilt.

These moral injuries often lead to social isolation, family breakdown, unemployment and homelessness. They may also complicate posttraumatic stress disorder, depression, substance use, traumatic brain injury and suicidality. As health professionals and fellow citizens, we have a duty to foresee and prevent this downward spiral.

To assemble the required workforce, other government agencies would be required to detail personnel. Tasking staff to operate outside their primary occupations, organizational structures and agency cultures is problematic. Hastily deployed augmentees would be further challenged by the complexity inherent in detaining adults, children, the elderly and entire family units.

While medical support could be contracted to private companies that supplement the Bureau of Prisons, these contractors have been widely criticized for failing to maintain basic standards of care. The proposed encampments will require even higher levels of care to meet a broad range of preexisting medical needs and prevent major outbreaks of infectious diseases.

Military medical systems are already stretched thin. Reassigning personnel to detention centers would profoundly degrade normal military medical operations and cripple readiness.

The VA medical system is struggling with a budgetary crisis which threatens its ability to back up the military in war or the community in disaster. It would be unwise (and unethical) to encumber VA with a task which undermines its mission.

The nation can neither ensure its security nor maintain its fighting force by violating the principles which define the relationship between its military and civilian populations. This social contract is foundational to our democracy and enshrined in our laws and culture. Beyond this, we have learned painful lessons about “going to war with the Army we have.” We do not need to repeat this mistake.

Stephen N. Xenakis, M.D., Brigadier General (Ret.), U.S. Army is a psychiatrist and a member of the executive board of the Center for Ethics and Rule of Law. Harold S. Kudler, M.D., is a retired Department of Veterans Affairs psychiatrist who served as VA’s chief consultant for mental health and co-led development of the VA/Department of Defense Clinical Practice Guideline for Management of Posttraumatic Stress Disorder.

10. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 26, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 26, 2024

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-26-2024

Russian President Vladimir Putin explicitly rejected a suggestion reportedly considered by US President-elect Donald Trump's team in early November 2024 that would delay Ukraine's membership in NATO for at least a decade as a condition for ending the war in Ukraine. Putin responded on December 26 to a journalist's request to comment on the Trump team’s reported early November suggestion to delay Ukraine's membership in NATO for 10 to 20 years. Putin stated that it does not matter if Ukraine joins NATO "today, tomorrow, or in 10 years." Putin's December 26 statement is part of a series of comments he has made recently reiterating his refusal to consider compromises on his late 2021 and early 2022 demands. These demands include forcing Ukraine to become a permanently neutral state that will never join NATO, imposing severe limitations on the size of the Ukrainian military, and removing the Ukrainian government.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reiterated Putin's false claims that the current Ukrainian government is illegitimate and cannot be a legitimate negotiating partner for Russia. Lavrov claimed on December 26 during an interview with Russian and foreign media that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is not legitimate according to Ukraine's constitution and that Ukraine needs to hold presidential elections. Kremlin officials have been deliberately misinterpreting the Ukrainian Constitution and Ukrainian law to delegitimatize Ukraine's government and sovereignty in recent months. The Kremlin's allegations that Zelensky and the Ukrainian government are not legitimate demonstrate that the Kremlin is unwilling in engage in negotiations with Ukraine or are effectively demanding regime change in Kyiv as a precondition for negotiations. Putin and other Kremlin officials have repeatedly reiterated this false narrative about Zelensky's alleged illegitimacy in order to blame Ukraine — and not Russia — for delaying negotiations. This false narrative also promotes Putin's demand for the removal of the legitimate, democratically elected Ukrainian government – one of the Kremlin's ongoing maximalist demands in the war.

Key Takeaways:

Russian President Vladimir Putin explicitly rejected a suggestion reportedly considered by US President-elect Donald Trump's team in early November 2024 that would delay Ukraine's membership in NATO for at least a decade as a condition for ending the war in Ukraine.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reiterated Putin's false claims that the current Ukrainian government is illegitimate and cannot be a legitimate negotiating partner for Russia.

Russian forces have likely seized Kurakhove following two months of intensified offensive operations aimed at seizing the settlement and eliminating the Ukrainian salient north and south of the settlement.

Russian forces may struggle to advance rapidly further west of Kurakhove along the H-15 Kurakhove-Pokrovske highway should Ukrainian forces choose to defend in the Kurakhivska TPP and Russian forces fail to outflank Ukrainian positions in the TPP near Dachne or Ulakly.

Elements of the 51st CAA have been the main forces participating in the seizure of Kurakhove amid ongoing efforts to centralize and formalize elements of the 51st CAA within the Russian military.

Russian forces conducted a large series of missile and drone strikes targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure on the night of December 24 to 25, seriously damaging thermal power plants (TPPs).

Ukrainian forces conducted a successful strike on December 25 against the command post of a Russian unit operating in Kursk Oblast.

Ukrainian forces struck a Russian ammunition depot in Rostov Oblast and Russian defense industrial base (DIB) facilities in Rostov and Tambov oblasts on December 25 and 26.

A Russian air defense system reportedly shot an Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190 passenger aircraft over the Republic of Chechnya on December 25, after which the plane crashed in Aktau, Kazakhstan.

A Russian insider source, who is reportedly affiliated with Russian law enforcement, claimed that an air defense missile likely struck the plane at an altitude of 2,400 meters approximately 18 kilometers northwest of the Grozny airport over Naursky Raion.

Japan will provide Ukraine with $3 billion in non-lethal assistance generated solely from the proceeds of frozen Russian assets.

Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Toretsk, and Russian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Velyka Novosilka.

Russian milbloggers acknowledged that the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) is attempting to monopolize crowdfunding efforts for the Russian military amid ongoing fallout from the deaths of two Russian drone operators in September 2024.

11. Iran Update, December 26, 2024

Iran Update, December 26, 2024

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-december-26-2024

Several trends have placed Syria on a trajectory that is increasingly likely to lead to ethno-sectarian conflict. Social media reports have alleged that individuals affiliated with Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) have killed and kidnapped Alawites and other Syrians accused of being Assad regime officials. These killings and kidnappings have taken place outside of formal and documented judicial processes, which may significantly heighten sectarian tension between the majority and empowered Sunni and the minority Alawites. Some of the Alawites targeted are almost certainly Assad regime officials who can and should be prosecuted for war crimes and crimes against humanity in fair and transparent tribunals. Failure to prosecute criminals fairly and transparently risks degrading community trust and encouraging tit-for-tat retaliatory violence between ethnic and sectarian groups.

The HTS-led government and transitional government leader Ahmed al Shara has attempted to assuage the Alawite's fears by highlighting the ways HTS and the interim government aims to protect minorities, but he has made only limited concrete, unambiguous steps. The interim government has established a reconciliation program under which former regime elements are granted amnesty in exchange for disarmament and registering with the interim government. The terms of this amnesty have not been publicly discussed, and the lists could be used by sectarian actors to target former regime elements in the coastal areas, who would be predominantly Alawite. The interim government began targeting “criminal gang leaders” who did not hand over weapons and settle with the interim government in Latakia on December 25.

An old video surfaced on December 25 showing Sunni fighters desecrating a major Alawite shrine in Aleppo, which could increase Alawite fears. The Interim Interior Ministry said that that the video was taken at least three weeks ago and that republishing such clips is intended to stir up strife among the Syrian people at this sensitive stage of government creation. The original source of the Alawite shrine video remains unknown at this time. The video spurred Alawite demonstrations on December 25 in several Syrian cities. Some reportedly pro-Assad protesters called for violence and other demonstrators used what at least one anti-Assad media outlet described as "sectarian language." Alawite community leaders in Latakia called for HTS-led security forces to establish security and disarm former regime elements amid the protests, which suggests genuine concern among community leaders about former regime activity. The HTS-led military operations department sent military reinforcements to Homs, Hama, Damascus, and Latakia and imposed curfews in response to the unrest. A violent HTS crackdown on protests in Alawite areas of Syria could dramatically accelerate sectarian tension and trigger serious violence. HTS has previously violently cracked down on protesters challenging Shara’s rule in Idlib. The newly appointed Syrian intelligence chief (see below) played a major role in that crackdown.

Pro-Assad fighters separately “ambushed” and killed 14 HTS-led interior ministry officers in Khirbet al Maaza on December 26.

Iran is also making remarks that risk stoking sectarian tension. Senior Iranian officials, including the supreme leader, have repeatedly suggested that the Syrian youth will “rise up” in Syria. The Iranian supreme leader compared these “Syrian youth” to the Iraqi militia groups that systematically hunted down and killed Sunni civilians in Baghdad as part of a campaign of sectarian cleansing in Iraq. Core HTS fighters from Jabhat al Nusra and al Qaeda in Iraq, like Shara, are intimately familiar with the Iraqi context and would presumably read “Syrian youth” as a much more sectarian call than it immediately appears. Sectarian Iranian remarks would provide an opening for Sunni sectarian elements in Syria to portray all Alawites and Shia as pro-Iranian proxies to justify a violent crackdown.

Syrian Foreign Affairs Minister Asaad Hassan al Shaibani responded to these Iranian statements. He warned Iran against “spreading chaos in Syria” and stated that Syria will hold Iran “accountable for the repercussions of [its] latest remarks,” likely referring to ongoing rhetoric from senior Iranian officials suggesting that Syrian youth will “rise up” in Syria.

Key Takeaways:

Conflict in Syria: Several trends have placed Syria on a trajectory that is increasingly likely to lead to ethno-sectarian conflict. There is already an ongoing ethnic conflict between the Kurdish-majority Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA). These trends include killings, arrests, and kidnappings that appear to occur outside of a transparent judicial process for trying war criminals, provocative protests and sectarian imagery on social media, and Iranian provocation.

HTS Government Formation: The HTS-led interim government appointed former al Qaeda in Iraq and Jabhat al Nusra member Anas Hasan Khattab as head of the General Intelligence Service on December 26.

SNA-SDF Fighting: The Turkish-backed SNA engaged the US-backed SDF in contested territory southeast of Manbij and likely pushed SDF forces east towards Tishreen Dam. Syrian media reported that the SDF advanced on a new axis into SNA-controlled territory east of Aleppo, likely to relieve pressure on the Tishreen Dam area by forcing the SNA to redeploy its forces to respond to a new threat.

Turkey: The Turkish Ministry of Defense announced in a statement on December 26 that Turkey supports a “unified Syrian army,” likely referring to a Syrian army that excludes the SDF.

Iraq in Syria: The pro-Iran Iraqi National Intelligence Service director implied to HTS leader Ahmad al Shara on December 26 that Iraq would consider intervening or allowing Iraqi militias to intervene in Syria if unspecified instability threatened Iraq.

Israel in Syria: The IDF continued to operate in villages in Quneitra and Daraa Provinces.

Yemen: The IDF conducted airstrikes targeting port and energy infrastructure in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen on December 26.

12. Russia has a history of downing passenger planes — and covering it up

Russia has a history of downing passenger planes — and covering it up

The track record tells you what Moscow’s word is worth on the crash of Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/12/27/azerbaijan-flight-crash-russia-ukraine-history/?utm

Dec

Emergency workers at the site of the Azerbaijan Airlines plane crash near Aktau, Kazakhstan, on Wednesday. (Azamat Sarsenbayev/Reuters)

A decade ago, Malaysia Airlines Flight 17, flying from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur, went down over a portion of eastern Ukraine controlled by Russian-backed forces, killing 298 passengers and crew. The Kremlin denied responsibility and spun out various conspiracy theories, blaming the crash on either a Ukrainian fighter jet or some kind of elaborate CIA plot. (A Russian website even bizarrely claimed that the passengers were already dead when the plane took off.) Eventually a Dutch-led investigation proved that the airplane had been brought down by a Russian Buk surface-to-air missile system fired from the Russian-controlled region of Ukraine.

History appeared to repeat itself this week. On Wednesday, Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243, flying from Baku, Azerbaijan, to Grozny, in the Russian republic of Chechnya, crashed near Aktau, Kazakhstan. Of the 67 passengers and crew, 38 died, and many of the 29 survivors are in bad shape.

Russian spokesmen blamed a bird collision, but a preliminary Azerbaijani investigation — backed by Western aviation experts and U.S. officials — concluded that a Russian antiaircraft missile most likely brought down the plane. Azerbaijani officials told local media that not only did Russian fire damage the airplane, but Russian authorities also jammed its electronics and denied it permission to land, forcing it to divert across the Caspian Sea to Kazakhstan.

A definitive investigation must still be conducted, and it’s possible that Russia is not to blame. But the Kremlin, given its history, has not earned the benefit of the doubt.

Following Max Boot

Following

Indeed, it makes eminent sense that Flight 8243 could have been downed by Russian air defenses at a time when the Grozny region was under attack by Ukrainian drones. It’s easy to imagine a Russian air-defense crew mistaking the civilian aircraft for a drone and opening fire.

Such accidents, admittedly, happen in wartime everywhere. On Sunday, a U.S. guided-missile cruiser in the Red Sea mistakenly shot down a Navy F/A-18 fighter that it probably mistook for a Houthi drone or missile (the pilot and a weapons officer survived with minor injuries after ejecting). In 1988, a U.S. warship battling Iranian gunboats in the Persian Gulf shot down an Iranian passenger aircraft that it mistook for an Iranian fighter aircraft, killing 290 people.

But when civilized nations commit such offenses, they apologize and make reparations. They don’t refuse to admit what they did or try to blame someone else for their actions. That, however, has been the Kremlin’s reprehensible pattern dating from the 1983 downing of Korean Air Lines Flight 007 — making its protestations of innocence in Wednesday’s case all the more dismissible.

The Azerbaijan Airlines crash, moreover, must be understood in the context of a war of aggression that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin launched against Ukraine — while pretending, for the benefit of domestic opinion, it was nothing more than a “special military operation.”

When enemy aircraft (manned or unmanned) are detected, the normal impulse of any responsible state is to close nearby airports and divert all flights. Ukraine has gone further and shut its entire airspace to civil aviation for fear of a passenger aircraft being downed by either Russian missiles or Ukrainian air defenses. This is why travelers to Kyiv must undertake a lengthy train journey from Poland.

Russia has also been known to temporarily close airports as a result of Ukrainian drone attacks — most recently on Saturday in the southern Russian city of Kazan. But such closures are only reluctantly undertaken because they conflict with Putin’s attempts to shield his population from the consequences of his “special military operation.” The Chechen authorities might have been overzealous in following the official Kremlin line when they failed to close the Grozny airport during the Ukrainian attack on Wednesday.

Opinions on Russia

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Syrian rebels had help from Ukraine in humiliating Russia

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Ani Chkhikvadze

In Georgia’s capital, a new fury fuels street protests

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Trump to Putin: What’s a little covert war among friends?

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David Ignatius

Don’t underestimate the risks of escalation over Ukraine

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Erik Wemple

Russian propagandists have First Amendment rights, too

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George F. Will

Stopping Putin in Ukraine could also arrest a slide toward World War III

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Josh Rogin

‘Why am I being singled out?’ a Russian state media pundit asks

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Lee Hockstader

The losing strategy of underestimating Russia

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Patrick O'Connor

How I became a propagandist for Russian media

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Henry Sokolski

Nuclear proliferation will dominate the next president’s agenda

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Vladimir Kara-Murza

‘My first thought was that I was going to be led out to be executed’

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When a 12-hour shift turned into three weeks at Chernobyl

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Sanctions relief for hostages? It could save nine American lives.

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The question now is what, if anything, the West will do about it. After the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17, a Dutch court convicted two Russians and a pro-Russian Ukrainian of murder and sentenced them to life in prison. But the convictions were purely symbolic because Russia would not surrender the defendants for trial. That terrible tragedy did nothing to dissuade Putin from continuing — and eventually escalating — his aggression against Ukraine.

If Russia downed the Azerbaijan Airlines flight, it cannot be allowed to once again escape accountability. And that accountability must not end with a few low-level Russian soldiers whose fates will be of no concern to Putin.

This is another argument, if any were needed, for even stricter sanctions on the Russian economy and even more support for Ukraine in resisting Russian aggression. In a long-overdue step, President Joe Biden is reportedly planning to tighten sanctions on the Russian energy industry in his remaining days in office. This comes after Biden belatedly gave Ukraine permission to fire U.S.-provided ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile System) at targets inside Russia — a decision President-elect Donald Trump has criticized as “stupid.”

If Trump revokes Ukraine’s ATACMS authority and relaxes, rather than ramps up, sanctions on Russia, he will be sending Putin a signal that his many depravities — from shooting down innocent aircraft to invading innocent countries — will carry no consequences. Only by making Russia pay a high price for its violations of international law can the West dissuade Putin from further aggression.

Comments

By Max Boot

Max Boot is a Washington Post columnist and a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. A Pulitzer Prize finalist in biography, he is the author, most recently, of the New York Times bestseller “Reagan: His Life and Legend," which was named one of the 10 best books of 2024 by the New York Times.

13. United Front: China's 'magic weapon' caught in a spy controversy

United Front: China's 'magic weapon' caught in a spy controversy

Koh Ewe and Laura Bicker

BBC News

Reporting fromSingapore and Beijing

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c878evdp758o

Getty Images

China's United Front Work Department is an arm of the Communist PartyThe People's Republic of China has a "magic weapon", according to its founding leader Mao Zedong and its current president Xi Jinping.

It is called the United Front Work Department - and it is raising as much alarm in the West as Beijing's growing military arsenal.

Yang Tengbo, a prominent businessman who has been linked to Prince Andrew, is the latest overseas Chinese citizen to be scrutinised - and sanctioned - for his links to the UFWD.

The existence of the department is far from a secret. A decades-old and well-documented arm of the Chinese Communist Party, it has been mired in controversy before. Investigators from the US to Australia have cited the UFWD in multiple espionage cases, often accusing Beijing of using it for foreign interference.

Beijing has denied all espionage allegations, calling them ludicrous.

So what is the UFWD and what does it do?

'Controlling China's message'

The United Front - originally referring to a broad communist alliance - was once hailed by Mao as the key to the Communist Party's triumph in the decades-long Chinese Civil War.

After the war ended in 1949 and the party began ruling China, United Front activities took a backseat to other priorities. But in the last decade under Xi, the United Front has seen a renaissance of sorts.

Xi's version of the United Front is broadly consistent with earlier incarnations: to "build the broadest possible coalition with all social forces that are relevant", according to Mareike Ohlberg, a senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund.

On the face of it, the UFWD is not shadowy - it even has a website and reports many of its activities on it. But the extent of its work - and its reach - is less clear.

While a large part of that work is domestic, Dr Ohlberg said, "a key target that has been defined for United Front work is overseas Chinese".

Today, the UFWD seeks to influence public discussions about sensitive issues ranging from Taiwan - which China claims as its territory - to the suppression of ethnic minorities in Tibet and Xinjiang.

It also tries to shape narratives about China in foreign media, target Chinese government critics abroad and co-opt influential overseas Chinese figures.

"United Front work can include espionage but [it] is broader than espionage," Audrye Wong, assistant professor of politics at the University of Southern California, tells the BBC.

"Beyond the act of acquiring covert information from a foreign government, United Front activities centre on the broader mobilisation of overseas Chinese," she said, adding that China is "unique in the scale and scope" of such influence activities.

Reuters

Xi Jinping has pushed for an assertive China abroadChina has always had the ambition for such influence, but its rise in recent decades has given Beijing the ability to exercise it.

Since Xi became president in 2012, he has been especially proactive in crafting China's message to the world, enouraging a confrontational "wolf warrior" approach to diplomacy and urging his country's diaspora to "tell China's story well".

The UFWD operates through various overseas Chinese community organisations, which have vigorously defended the Communist Party beyond its shores. They have censored anti-CCP artwork and protested at the activities of Tibetan spiritual leader the Dalai Lama. The UFWD has also been linked to threats against members of persecuted minorities abroad, such as Tibetans and Uyghurs.

But much of the UFWD's work overlaps with other party agencies, operating under what observers have described as "plausible deniability".

It is this murkiness that is causing so much suspicion and apprehension about the UFWD.

When Yang appealed against his ban, judges agreed with the then secretary of state's report that Yang "represented a risk to national security" - citing the fact that he downplayed his ties with the UFWD as one of the reasons that led them to that conclusion.

Yang, however, maintains that he has not done anything unlawful and that the spy allegations are "entirely untrue".

Supplied

Mr Yang seen here with Prince AndrewCases like Yang's are becoming increasingly common. In 2022, British Chinese lawyer Christine Lee was accused by the MI5 of acting through the UFWD to cultivate relationships with influential people in the UK. The following year, Liang Litang, a US citizen who ran a Chinese restaurant in Boston, was indicted for providing information about Chinese dissidents in the area to his contacts in the UFWD.

And in September, Linda Sun, a former aide in the New York governor's office, was charged with using her position to serve Chinese government interests - receiving benefits, including travel, in return. According to Chinese state media reports, she had met a top UFWD official in 2017, who told her to "be an ambassador of Sino-American friendship".

It is not uncommon for prominent and successful Chinese people to be associated with the party, whose approval they often need, especially in the business world.

But where is the line between peddling influence and espionage?

"The boundary between influence and espionage is blurry" when it comes to Beijing's operations, said Ho-fung Hung, a politics professor at Johns Hopkins University.

Yang Tengbo: Who is alleged Chinese spy linked to Prince Andrew?

Spy allegations pose dilemma for UK's China policy

This ambiguity has intensified after China passed a law in 2017 mandating Chinese nationals and companies to co-operate with intelligence probes, including sharing information with the Chinese government - a move that Dr Hung said "effectively turns everyone into potential spies".

The Ministry of State Security has released dramatic propaganda videos warning the public that foreign spies are everywhere and "they are cunning and sneaky ".

Some students who were sent on special trips abroad were told by their universities to limit contact with foreigners and were asked for a report of their activities on their return.

And yet Xi is keen to promote China to the world. So he has tasked a trusted arm of the party to project strength abroad.

And that is becoming a challenge for Western powers - how do they balance doing business with the world's second-largest economy alongside serious security concerns?

Wrestling with the long arm of Beijing

Genuine fears over China's overseas influence are playing into more hawkish sentiments in the West, often leaving governments in a dilemma.

Some, like Australia, have tried to protect themselves with fresh foreign interference laws that criminalise individuals deemed to be meddling in domestic affairs. In 2020, the US imposed visa restrictions on people seen as active in UFWD activities.

An irked Beijing has warned that such laws - and the prosecutions they have spurred - hinder bilateral relations.

"The so-called allegations of Chinese espionage are utterly absurd," a foreign ministry spokesperson told reporters on Tuesday in response to a question about Yang. "The development of China-UK relations serves the common interests of both countries."

Some experts say that the long arm of China's United Front is indeed concerning.

"Western governments now need to be less naive about China's United Front work and take it as a serious threat not only to national security but also to the safety and freedom of many ethnic Chinese citizens," Dr Hung says.

But, he adds, "governments also need to be vigilant against anti-Chinese racism and work hard to build trust and co-operation with ethnic Chinese communities in countering the threat together."

Getty Images

The UFWD has been accused of pressuring overseas dissidents and critics of the Communist PartyLast December, Di Sanh Duong, a Vietnam-born ethnic Chinese community leader in Australia, was convicted of planning foreign interference for trying to cosy up to an Australian minister. Prosecutors argued that he was an "ideal target" for the UFWD because he had run for office in the 1990s and boasted ties with Chinese officials.

Duong's trial had centred around what he meant when he said the inclusion of the minister at a charity event would be beneficial to "us Chinese" - did he mean the Chinese community in Australia, or mainland China?

In the end, Duong's conviction - and a prison sentence - raised serious concerns that such broad anti-espionage laws and prosecutions can easily become weapons for targeting ethnic Chinese people.

"It's important to remember that not everyone who is ethnically Chinese is a supporter of the Chinese Communist Party. And not everyone who is involved in these diaspora organisations is driven by fervent loyalty to China," Dr Wong says.

"Overly aggressive policies based on racial profiling will only legitimise the Chinese government's propaganda that ethnic Chinese are not welcome and end up pushing diaspora communities further into Beijing's arms."

What is behind Starmer's meeting with China's president?

14. Finland boards oil tanker suspected of causing internet, power cable outages

Finland boards oil tanker suspected of causing internet, power cable outages | CNN

CNN · December 26, 2024

Fingrid's EstLink 2 transformer station in Anttila in Porvoo (Borga), Finland, on the day of the start of its operation between Finland and Estonia in March 2014.

Markku Ulander/Lehtikuva/AFP/Getty Images/File

Reuters —

Finnish authorities said they boarded and took control of an oil tanker traveling from Russia on Thursday, on suspicion it had caused the outage of an undersea power cable and three internet lines connecting Finland and Estonia a day earlier.

The Cook Islands-registered ship, named by authorities as the Eagle S, was boarded by a Finnish coast guard crew which took command in the Baltic Sea and sailed the vessel to Finnish waters, a coast guard official told a press conference.

“From our side we are investigating grave sabotage,” said Robin Lardot, Director of the Finnish National Bureau of Investigation, which leads the multi-agency probe.

“According to our understanding an anchor of the vessel that is under investigation has caused the damage,” he added.

The Finnish customs service said it had seized the vessel’s cargo and that the Eagle S was believed to belong to Russia’s so-called shadow fleet of aging tankers that seek to evade sanctions on the sale of Russian oil.

Both the Finnish and the Estonian government will hold extraordinary meetings later on Thursday to assess the situation, they said in separate statements.

Baltic Sea nations are on high alert for potential acts of sabotage following a string of outages of power cables, telecom links and gas pipelines since 2022, although subsea equipment is also subject to technical malfunction and accidents.

Repairing the 170 km (106 miles) Estlink 2 interconnector will take months, and the outage could cause a tense power supply situation during winter, operator Fingrid said in a statement.

The Eagle S Panamax oil tanker crossed the Estlink 2 electricity cable at 5.26a ET on Wednesday, a Reuters review of MarineTraffic ship tracking data showed, identical to the time when Fingrid said the power outage had occurred.

The ship was stationary near the Finnish coast on Thursday afternoon, with a Finnish patrol vessel stopped nearby, the data showed.

United Arab Emirates-based Caravella LLCFZ, which according to MarineTraffic data owns the Eagle S, did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Peninsular Maritime, which, according to MarineTraffic acts as a technical manager for the ship, declined to comment outside of the company’s opening hours.

‘Disrupt and deter’

Damage to subsea installations in the Baltic Sea has now become so frequent that it is difficult to believe this was caused merely by accident or poor seamanship, Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna said in a statement.

“We must understand that damage to submarine infrastructure has become more systematic and thus must be regarded as attacks against our vital structures,” Tsahkna said.

The 658 megawatt (MW) Estlink 2 outage began at midday local time on Wednesday, leaving only the 358 MW Estlink 1 in operation between the two countries, operator Fingrid said.

Twelve Western countries on Dec. 16 said they had agreed measures to “disrupt and deter” Russia’s so-called shadow fleet of vessels in order to prevent sanctions breaches and increase the cost to Moscow of the war in Ukraine.

“We must be able to prevent the risks posed by ships belonging to the Russian shadow fleet,” Finnish President Alexander Stubb said in a post on social media X on Thursday.

Lithuanian foreign minister Kestutis Budrys said the growing number of Baltic Sea incidents should serve as a stark and urgent warning to NATO and the European Union to significantly enhance the protection of undersea infrastructure there.

This picture taken on October 12, 2015 shows the C-Lion1 submarine telecommunications cable being laid to the bottom of the Baltic Sea by cable laying ship "Ile de Brehat" off the shore of Helsinki, Finland. Germany and Finland said November 18, 2024 they were "deeply concerned" that an undersea telecommunications cable linking the countries had been severed and opened a probe, at a time of high tensions with Russia. "Our European security is not only under threat from Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine, but also from hybrid warfare by malicious actors," the countries' foreign ministers said in a joint statement.

Heikki Saukkomaa/Lehtikuva/AFP/Getty Images/FILE

Police in Sweden are meanwhile leading an investigation into the breach last month of two Baltic Sea telecom cables, in an incident German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius has said he assumed was caused by sabotage.

Separately, Finnish police continue to investigate damage caused last year to the Balticconnector gas pipeline linking Finland and Estonia, as well as several telecoms cables, and have said this was likely caused by a ship dragging its anchor.

In 2022 the Russia-to-Germany Nord Stream gas pipelines

running along the seabed in the same waters were blown up, in a case still under investigation by Germany.

CNN · December 26, 2024

15. How Tariffs Can Help America

Excerpts:

Thanks to its relatively open trade account and even more open capital account, the American economy more or less automatically absorbs excess production from trade partners who have implemented beggar-my-neighbor policies. It is the global consumer of last resort. The purpose of tariffs for the United States should be to cancel this role, so that American producers would no longer have to adjust their production according to the needs of foreign producers. For that reason, such tariffs should be simple, transparent, and widely applied (perhaps excluding trade partners that commit to balancing trade domestically). The aim would not be to protect specific manufacturing sectors or national champions but to counter the United States’ pro-consumption and antiproduction orientation. The goal of American tariffs, in other words, should be to eliminate the United States’ automatic accommodation of global trade imbalances.

These tariffs would still come with domestic risks. But for economists to suggest that the effect of tariffs in 1930 must be the same as today only shows how muddled most economists are about trade. The real lesson of Smoot-Hawley is not that the United States cannot benefit from tariffs, but rather that persistent surplus economies should not implement policies that exacerbate global trade conflict.

In the end, tariffs are simply one among many tools that can improve economic outcomes under some conditions and depress them under others. In an economy suffering from excess consumption, low savings, and a declining manufacturing share of GDP, the focus of economists should be on the causes of these conditions and the policies that might reverse them. Tariffs could be one such policy.

How Tariffs Can Help America

Foreign Affairs · by More by Michael Pettis · December 27, 2024

Economists Have Drawn the Wrong Lessons From the Failures of the 1930s

Michael Pettis

December 27, 2024

Near New York City, September 2024 Caitlin Ochs / Reuters

Michael Pettis is a Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

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Donald Trump has promised to implement a suite of aggressive tariffs on American trade partners, including a blanket 20 percent levy on goods from abroad. Although his supporters claim that these tariffs will strengthen U.S. manufacturing and create jobs, critics contend that they will fuel inflation, suppress employment, and perhaps tip the economy into a recession. As a demonstration of what will go wrong, many cite the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, which raised U.S. tariffs across a variety of imports. “Judging by his proposed import tariff policy,” wrote the American Enterprise Institute economist Desmond Lachman, “it is evident that Donald Trump does not remember our country’s disastrous economic experience with the 1930 Smoot-Hawley Trade Act.”

But these claims only show how confused many experts are when it comes to trade—on both sides of the tariff debate. Tariffs are neither a panacea nor necessarily injurious. Their effectiveness, like that of any economic policy intervention, depends on the circumstances under which they are implemented. Smoot-Hawley was a failure at its time, but its failure tells analysts very little about the effect that tariffs would have on the United States today. That is because now, unlike then, the United States is not producing far more than it can consume. Ironically, the history of Smoot-Hawley says a lot more about how tariffs today would affect a country like China, whose excess production resembles more closely the United States of the 1920s than does the United States of now.

Economists weren’t always so mixed up. In his classic 1944 book, International Currency Experience, Ragnar Nurkse wrote that “the devaluation of a currency is expansionary in effect if it corrects a previous overvaluation, but deflationary if it makes the currency undervalued.” Tariffs, which are close cousins of currency devaluation, act in the same way. They reduce domestic consumption and force up domestic saving rates. A country with low consumption and excess savings (like the United States in the 1920s or China today) tends to be one with an undervalued currency, in which case tariffs, like currency depreciation, are likely to be deflationary. But in a country with excessively high levels of consumption, like the modern United States, the same policy can be expansionary. Done under current circumstances, in other words, tariffs could increase employment and wages in the United States, raising living standards and growing the economy.

WRONG PLACE, WRONG TIME

For those who don’t remember (or who never had a chance to see Ferris Bueller’s Day Off), the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act was a controversial law that raised tariffs on over 20,000 goods. Named after its two Republican sponsors, Senator Reed Smoot of Utah and Representative Willis C. Hawley of Oregon, and signed into law by a reluctant President Herbert Hoover on June 17, 1930, it represented the second-highest tariff increase in U.S. history.

Smoot-Hawley was implemented at the beginning of the Great Depression, when countries around the world were already engaged in the currency depreciation, import restrictions, and tariffs that English economist Joan Robinson would later characterize as “beggar-my-neighbor” policies. As Robinson explained, these policies expand domestic growth by subsidizing production at the expense of domestic consumption. They do so through many ways, but they all use the resulting trade surpluses to shift the cost of weak demand onto trade partners. Put simply, beggar-my-neighbor policies are designed to prop up one country’s economy at the expense of another, usually by boosting domestic manufacturing at the expense of foreign manufacturing.

There is widespread consensus among economic historians that the Smoot-Hawley tariffs were a bust. They contributed to a contraction in global trade that was especially painful for the United States, which had the largest trade surplus in the world and was home to the planet’s biggest exporters. The reason behind this imbalance was understood by Marriner Eccles, chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve from 1934 to 1948, who argued that high levels of income inequality in the United States were in effect “a giant suction pump” that had “drawn into a few hands an increasing portion of currently produced wealth.” Because the rich consume a far lower share of their income than do the nonrich, Eccles explained, Americans were unable to consume a large enough part of what they produced to balance domestic production. The huge U.S. trade surplus of the 1920s, in other words, reflected the inability of Americans to absorb what American businesses produced.

The United States again faces high levels of income inequality. But this fact doesn’t make Smoot-Hawley a reasonable model for assessing the effect of similar tariffs today. Overall, the modern American economy is very different from the one of 1930. In fact, when it comes to trade, the two are almost opposites. The United States now has by far the largest trade deficit in history. That means Americans invest and (mainly) consume far more than they produce. U.S. consumption in the 1920s, in other words, was too low relative to American production. Today, it is too high.

DOUBLE-EDGED SWORD

Like most industrial and trade policies, tariffs operate by transferring income from one part of the economy to another, in this case from net importers to net exporters. They do this by raising the price of imported goods, which benefits the domestic producers of those goods. Because household consumers are net importers, tariffs are effectively a tax on consumers. But by raising the price of manufacturing and other tradable goods, tariffs also act as a subsidy for domestic producers.

This consumer-to-producer shift means tariffs have repercussions for a country’s gross domestic product, or the value of the goods and services produced by its businesses and workers. Because everything an economy produces is either consumed or saved, any policy that raises production relative to consumption automatically forces up the domestic saving rate. By taxing consumption and subsidizing production, tariffs effectively raise production relative to consumption, which means they lower the consumption share of GDP and raise the savings rate.

But there are two very different ways by which tariffs can lower consumption as a share of GDP. One way is by increasing GDP as a whole. This happens when a tariff’s implicit subsidy to production results in more jobs and higher wages, which in turn leads to an overall increase in total consumption. The higher savings—or the gap between the increase in consumption and the greater increase in production—show up either in the form of higher investment or in a rise in exports relative to imports. Either way, these types of tariffs leave both businesses and households better off.

Americans consume too large a share of what they produce.

The other way, however, involves decreasing consumption as a share of GDP by suppressing consumption itself—not by fostering overall economic growth. This occurs when tariffs raise the price of imported products without raising wages, making it harder for people to purchase goods. Such tariffs do not produce a rise in production because domestic producers cannot respond to the tariffs with higher overall output. If American businesses were suffering primarily from weak domestic demand, for example, tariffs would reduce such demand even further by acting as a tax on already low levels of consumption. If the rest of the world were unable or unwilling to absorb larger U.S. trade surpluses, American tariffs would then depress domestic production.

Understanding whether tariffs will prove helpful or harmful requires understanding which of these scenarios will result. In the case of Smoot-Hawley, it was clearly the second. At the time those tariffs were enacted, the United States suffered from too much saving and too little consumption. It is why the country exported so much to the rest of the world, like China does today. What Americans needed then (as Eccles understood) was to boost the share of production distributed to households in the form of wages, interest, and transfers—which would, in turn, raise living standards, boost domestic demand, and reduce U.S. dependence on foreign consumption. Instead, by raising the price of imported goods, Smoot-Hawley did the opposite. It increased the implicit tax on American consumption while further subsidizing American producers. Rather than reduce U.S. reliance on foreigners to absorb excess production, the tariffs increased it.

Today, by contrast, Americans consume far too large a share of what they produce, and so they must import the difference from abroad. In this case, tariffs (properly implemented) would have the opposite effect of Smoot-Hawley. By taxing consumption to subsidize production, modern-day tariffs would redirect a portion of U.S. demand toward increasing the total amount of goods and services produced at home. That would lead U.S. GDP to rise, resulting in higher employment, higher wages, and less debt. American households would be able to consume more, even as consumption as a share of GDP declined.

TURNING THE TABLES

Thanks to its relatively open trade account and even more open capital account, the American economy more or less automatically absorbs excess production from trade partners who have implemented beggar-my-neighbor policies. It is the global consumer of last resort. The purpose of tariffs for the United States should be to cancel this role, so that American producers would no longer have to adjust their production according to the needs of foreign producers. For that reason, such tariffs should be simple, transparent, and widely applied (perhaps excluding trade partners that commit to balancing trade domestically). The aim would not be to protect specific manufacturing sectors or national champions but to counter the United States’ pro-consumption and antiproduction orientation. The goal of American tariffs, in other words, should be to eliminate the United States’ automatic accommodation of global trade imbalances.

These tariffs would still come with domestic risks. But for economists to suggest that the effect of tariffs in 1930 must be the same as today only shows how muddled most economists are about trade. The real lesson of Smoot-Hawley is not that the United States cannot benefit from tariffs, but rather that persistent surplus economies should not implement policies that exacerbate global trade conflict.

In the end, tariffs are simply one among many tools that can improve economic outcomes under some conditions and depress them under others. In an economy suffering from excess consumption, low savings, and a declining manufacturing share of GDP, the focus of economists should be on the causes of these conditions and the policies that might reverse them. Tariffs could be one such policy.

Michael Pettis is a Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Foreign Affairs · by More by Michael Pettis · December 27, 2024

16. The Real Stakes of the AI Race

Excerpts:

With nothing less than competing visions for the world order at stake, competitors will do all they can to gain the upper hand. Unintended consequences will follow. U.S. regulators may be overzealous in their controls. If Washington pursues proposed quotas on the number of U.S.-made AI chips other countries are able to procure, for example, it may undermine its leverage to lock in strategic dependencies for U.S. technology in fast-growing markets. U.S. officials might also be underestimating the momentum of China’s technology innovation. Overconfident in the efficacy of export controls, they could prematurely see inefficiencies in SMIC chip production as evidence of their policies’ success, while domestic Chinese suppliers make strides with heavy state backing and Chinese foundation model developers such as DeepSeekAI and Alibaba pool enough high-end computing power to rival their U.S. peers.

If Washington comes to believe that the AI technology gap between the two superpowers is closing, it will push for blunter measures. This would likely entail imposing full blocking sanctions on Huawei and more draconian restrictions on Chinese AI tech champions. If China’s tech giants are denied markets abroad while its statist economic model is faltering at home, a cornered Beijing may interpret the United States’ moves as an existential threat, creating the conditions for the technology war to potentially spill into the security sphere.

China’s leadership could respond to intensified trade restrictions with escalatory moves elsewhere. Assuming that Washington would try to avoid direct war, Beijing could test its rival’s limits with more serious gray-zone maneuvers in the Taiwan Strait. For instance, China could establish a customs quarantine that effectively asserts the mainland’s writ over Taiwanese ports of entry and challenges Taiwan’s political sovereignty. Such a step would have dramatic consequences, not only for the future of semiconductor supply chains as assets and investment flee Taiwan, but also for the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific.

For now, the unbridled optimism of technologists will keep the AI revolution moving forward, in hopes that the spread of the technology will transform humanity. At the same time, the anxiety of policymakers, who see economic and security risks lurking at every corner, will continue to drive efforts to channel AI competition toward zero-sum geopolitical goals. All recognize that power will accrue to those who hold the keys to AI development and deployment. As countries and tech giants jockey for position, the geopolitical tempest that ensues may overshadow the transformative potential of the technology.

The Real Stakes of the AI Race

Foreign Affairs · by More by Reva Goujon · December 27, 2024

What America, China, and Middle Powers Stand to Gain and Lose

Reva Goujon

December 27, 2024

An artificial intelligence processor at a lab in Austin, Texas, July 2024 Sergio Flores / Reuters

Reva Goujon is a Director at Rhodium Group.

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A sense that global technology competition is becoming a zero-sum game, and that the remainder of the twenty-first century will be made in the winner’s image, pervades in Washington, Beijing, and boardrooms worldwide. This angst feeds ambitious industrial policies, precautionary regulations, and multibillion-dollar investments. Yet even as governments and private industry race for supremacy in artificial intelligence, none of them possess a clear vision of what “winning” looks like or what geopolitical returns their investments will yield.

Much more than computing dominance is at stake; the struggle for AI primacy between the United States, China, middle powers, and Big Tech is fundamentally a competition over whose vision of the world order will reign supreme. For the United States, AI is a new frontier on which it must maintain its global technological dominance. As U.S. policymakers deploy a regulatory arsenal to cripple China’s technology development and stay ahead, China is mobilizing the power of the state to close the gap. At the same time, middle powers trying to avoid coming under the shadow of either superpower, along with tech companies devoted to the global diffusion of technology through open markets, see AI development paving the path to a multipolar world.

Already, U.S. technology controls and China’s escalatory response are creating a snowball effect: as the United States, bent on preserving tech primacy, resorts to more aggressive measures to throttle Chinese AI development, a cornered China will hunt for leverage over the United States, including, potentially, in security flashpoints such as the Taiwan Strait. Middle powers and tech companies, meanwhile, will strive to build AI systems and applications outside the confines of great-power rivalry—both looking to stake a claim to the new technological order even as they risk getting caught in the crossfire. As the the tenor of the global AI race grows existential, the high-stakes wagers of tech titans and world powers risk geopolitical combustion.

PROTECT THE LEAD

The United States is building its AI strategy on the assumption that it can preserve its hegemony offensively, through a rate of technological innovation that outpaces the rest of the world, and defensively, through far-reaching technology controls aimed at hobbling China, its biggest geopolitical challenger. Export controls and investment restrictions are designed to cut off the flow of goods, capital, and technological know-how from Beijing. Washington’s strategy assumes that China is in structural economic decline, its statist approach stifling the animal spirits of an economy at the mercy of the Communist Party and its general secretary, Xi Jinping.

It also puts enormous stock in the the pervasiveness and competitiveness of U.S. technology. Washington is betting that partners who may resist aligning with its protectionist strategy will ultimately cast their lot with U.S. technology and the promise of Western AI innovation rather than gamble on China closing the gap and risk running afoul of U.S. sanctions. After all, U.S. technology and intellectual property dominate every level of the AI industry. Nvidia’s AI accelerators increase computing power by orders of magnitude, driving the AI revolution; U.S. cloud service providers, such as Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud Platform, distribute massive computing resources and cloud infrastructure; and companies such as Google, Meta, OpenAI, Anthropic, and xAI have developed the foundational AI models that companies all over the world will rely on to fine-tune their AI applications.

The United States holds unique leverage in this early stage in the development of AI. Large-scale AI models, particularly in generative AI, which uses patterns learned from existing data to create new content, require immense computational power and vast amounts of data, the resources for which few companies outside the United States possess. The United States’ lead in this industry is not an accident; it has attracted more than $328 billion in investment over the past five years to promote AI development and foster a culture where risk-taking is rewarded. Building on the Biden administration’s suite of industrial policies expanding domestic chip manufacturing, the incoming Trump administration has touted an “AI Manhattan Project” to turbocharge a U.S.-led AI industrial revolution.

U.S. tech hegemony is not impregnable, however. The development and diffusion of AI technology could dilute the United States’ current advantages. Generative AI development to date has largely been focused on obtaining the huge amounts of computational power, data, and energy required to train large-scale AI models, for which access to the world’s most advanced chips has been critical. U.S. dominance of the production of these chips through companies such as Nvidia and AMD has enabled the U.S. government to tighten export controls to severely restrict that access. The United States is trying to hobble China’s domestic AI development, in particular, by cutting off its supply of high-end chips and the equipment and components needed to manufacture advanced node semiconductors.

U.S. tech hegemony is not impregnable.

But Washington finds itself in an awkward phase of that strategy. Despite a barrage of U.S.-led chip controls, Huawei’s HiSilicon and SMIC, China’s leading chip designer and manufacturer, respectively, leading China’s push for self-reliance, are producing high-performance AI accelerators used in data centers, such as the Ascend 910C processor, which is nearly as advanced as Nvidia’s H100 and A100 chips. Still, Chinese production has been far less efficient than that of the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), which uses state-of-the-art manufacturing technology to produce cutting-edge chips.

Chinese engineers are being flooded with state resources to innovate their way out of U.S.-imposed constraints on chip production. AI development is shifting away from maximization of computational power for training large-scale models and toward optimization to get pre-trained models to generate more sophisticated responses to queries. Nvidia and other leading companies are already focusing less on shrinking transistor nodes at the atomic level and more on performance gains across the full AI system, from the design of the chips themselves to the cooling systems used to integrate the hardware in data centers. When launching the first round of chip controls in October 2022, U.S. policymakers assumed that process node miniaturization was the fundamental chokepoint to “freeze in place” Chinese chip production. But with Huawei leading China’s self-reliance efforts, China has demonstrated that it still has the process engineering ability, manpower, and sheer tenacity to keep up with industry advances in performance optimization.

Concern about the United States’ ability to create a wide enough lead over China in AI development will lead to blunter controls, less patience for partners that do not align their own policies with U.S. export restrictions, and swifter application of extraterritorial measures. In December, the U.S. Department of Commerce released a package of semiconductor controls that exemplifies this approach, using far-reaching restrictions to force partners into alignment and to throttle Chinese production. But if Chinese companies are still able to scale their computing power, and gaps in partner alignment on chip controls remain, Washington will likely adopt blocking sanctions on Huawei and expand trade restrictions to include China’s AI tech champions. The potential blow to the Chinese economy and Beijing’s geopolitical ambition would heighten the stakes of the AI and chip war.

PLAYING CATCH-UP

China assumes that it is on equal geopolitical footing with the United States in a bipolar world. For Beijing, AI development is both the path to preserving parity with Washington and the antidote to its domestic economic challenges. China has intrinsic strengths: the sheer size of its population and the country’s massive industries give it an enormous well of data to draw from in training AI models and the opportunity to pioneer AI applications for manufacturing. Thanks in part to their large pools of employees willing to work long hours, Chinese tech champions such as Alibaba, Baidu, DeepSeek AI, Huawei, and Tencent are competitive with U.S. peers in large language model development and cloud infrastructure. China has also put enormous resources into optimizing power generation for data centers; it is now the fastest developer of energy generation in the world. Beijing is betting that high levels of state funding for AI-powered industries will pay off, especially if overreaching trade and technology controls alienate U.S. partners, drive them into China’s arms, and open up new markets for Chinese technology. From China’s perspective, this strategy is the country’s best (and only) hope to arrest recent economic malaise and to avoid subordination to the United States.

But China also faces significant vulnerabilities, most notably in its ability to develop the AI hardware needed to keep pace with the United States. As U.S. technologists create ever more efficient AI chips and dynamic AI models, China’s leading foundries will have to devote considerable resources just to maintain their chip production capabilities as tightening U.S. controls restrict their access to key components. This diverted energy will make it more difficult to keep pace with U.S. innovation. Chinese AI developers will face a dual challenge of seeking breakthrough innovation amid stifling U.S. tech controls while also complying with the nebulous Communist Party mandate that AI models “uphold socialist values.”

U.S.-led chip controls have not been impenetrable to date, but more aggressive U.S. controls could reduce the ability of foreign toolmakers, chip designers, and foundries to maintain a foothold in China’s chip market. If the United States builds on current de-risking momentum and coordinates with partners effectively, China could find itself increasingly excluded from emerging U.S.-led technology and trade blocs that reserve access to data and critical digital infrastructure for like-minded countries. Any potential reorganization of trade blocs would be disastrous for China’s ability to expand to foreign markets, especially at a time when its tech giants are relying on overseas growth to compensate for the structural decline of the domestic economy.

If China struggles to keep pace in chip development, and Beijing fears that this will make it fall further behind the United States in the AI race, the state could direct Chinese tech juggernauts to centralize and scale their computing resources. But such a step would expose China further to U.S. tech controls. For now, Huawei’s HiSilicon is the country’s preeminent AI chip designer. But Huawei is also the Chinese tech company most heavily sanctioned by the United States. Huawei’s chips are manufactured by SMIC, China’s state-owned foundry, which, like Huawei, is now subject to U.S. foreign direct product rule restrictions. These are designed to prevent components from any country from going to SMIC plants where advanced chips are being manufactured. If the government orders Chinese AI model developers to pool their resources to support the state’s AI development, they, too, would become prime targets for severe U.S. sanctions that would undermine their efforts to expand their market shares outside China. The United States has already expanded export control categories to include the gray area of firms engaged in military “support” activities. The justification for broader controls is already baked into U.S. rules and is waiting to be deployed.

GOLDEN TICKET?

Middle powers and Big Tech leaders have yet another outlook on the global AI competition. Many of them see the diffusion of technology as enabling the new era of multipolarity. With the United States and China locked in a contest for AI primacy, countries such as France, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, and the United Arab Emirates have started to build sovereign AI systems that make use of their national strengths: control over data access, intimate knowledge of their respective economies, and expertise in their respective languages and cultures to mitigate bias. The UAE, for example, may deploy up to $100 billion over the next few years as part of the country’s goal to be a global AI leader by 2031. These gains reflect middle powers’ status anxiety, as well as their recognition of the opportunity to carve out niches for themselves amid U.S.-Chinese competition.

Nvidia founder Jensen Huang has been quick to acknowledge the mix of anxiety and aspiration among middle powers. He has toured Canada, France, India, Japan, Malaysia, Singapore, and Vietnam, delivering the same seductive message: every country needs its own sovereign AI to reflect its language, culture, and ambitions. Meta, meanwhile, has open-sourced its Llama large language model, sharing its blueprint for building the model with the world. Open-sourcing makes it easier for the technology to diffuse across borders. It also may erode the competitive advantages of Meta’s closed-model rivals, including OpenAI’s GPT, Anthropic’s Claude, and Google’s Gemini. Unlike their competitors, which have erected proprietary walls around their technology to protect their innovation, open-source advocates such as Meta hope an expanded ecosystem of developers will encourage widespread adoption of and innovation on their own platform.

For most countries, though, achieving AI sovereignty is more complicated than tech leaders make it out to be. Middle powers can build AI infrastructure, but they will likely be doing so with U.S. semiconductors, cloud infrastructure, and a heavy reliance on U.S. talent and U.S.-origin AI foundation models. The ubiquity of U.S. technology enables Washington to impose conditions on partners, such as excluding Chinese firms from their supply chains and preventing Chinese access to U.S.-built AI systems, on the grounds that Chinese companies pose national security risks.

Finding the optimal level of AI regulation will also be a challenge. Many tech leaders prefer a light touch on AI regulation to clear the path for private industry to innovate without getting bogged down by heavy compliance requirements, but their appeals may not always align with U.S. government priorities to impose restrictions that block out China and countries willing to work with China. For example, open-source business models alarm security-minded policymakers who fear that unrestricted access could enable adversaries to more easily develop or exploit sensitive technology. Meanwhile, middle powers lacking a strong domestic tech base will try to assert their relevance by passing regulation that creates a de facto global standard for AI development. In August, the EU AI Act came into force as the world’s first comprehensive AI law. It was met with significant criticism, including from the former European Central Bank president Mario Draghi, who warned that the law’s “precautionary approach” to regulation would be onerous, and advised that deregulation is urgently needed to “close the innovation gap with the U.S. and China.”

CHIPS ON THE TABLE

With nothing less than competing visions for the world order at stake, competitors will do all they can to gain the upper hand. Unintended consequences will follow. U.S. regulators may be overzealous in their controls. If Washington pursues proposed quotas on the number of U.S.-made AI chips other countries are able to procure, for example, it may undermine its leverage to lock in strategic dependencies for U.S. technology in fast-growing markets. U.S. officials might also be underestimating the momentum of China’s technology innovation. Overconfident in the efficacy of export controls, they could prematurely see inefficiencies in SMIC chip production as evidence of their policies’ success, while domestic Chinese suppliers make strides with heavy state backing and Chinese foundation model developers such as DeepSeekAI and Alibaba pool enough high-end computing power to rival their U.S. peers.

If Washington comes to believe that the AI technology gap between the two superpowers is closing, it will push for blunter measures. This would likely entail imposing full blocking sanctions on Huawei and more draconian restrictions on Chinese AI tech champions. If China’s tech giants are denied markets abroad while its statist economic model is faltering at home, a cornered Beijing may interpret the United States’ moves as an existential threat, creating the conditions for the technology war to potentially spill into the security sphere.

China’s leadership could respond to intensified trade restrictions with escalatory moves elsewhere. Assuming that Washington would try to avoid direct war, Beijing could test its rival’s limits with more serious gray-zone maneuvers in the Taiwan Strait. For instance, China could establish a customs quarantine that effectively asserts the mainland’s writ over Taiwanese ports of entry and challenges Taiwan’s political sovereignty. Such a step would have dramatic consequences, not only for the future of semiconductor supply chains as assets and investment flee Taiwan, but also for the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific.

For now, the unbridled optimism of technologists will keep the AI revolution moving forward, in hopes that the spread of the technology will transform humanity. At the same time, the anxiety of policymakers, who see economic and security risks lurking at every corner, will continue to drive efforts to channel AI competition toward zero-sum geopolitical goals. All recognize that power will accrue to those who hold the keys to AI development and deployment. As countries and tech giants jockey for position, the geopolitical tempest that ensues may overshadow the transformative potential of the technology.

Reva Goujon is a Director at Rhodium Group.

Foreign Affairs · by More by Reva Goujon · December 27, 2024

17. Special Forces soldier dies in non-combat incident at Eglin range

Special Forces soldier dies in non-combat incident at Eglin range

Sgt. Thomas Lazzaro was shot in a hunting accident on Sunday, Dec. 22.

Nicholas Slayton

Posted 16 Hours Ago

taskandpurpose.com · by Nicholas Slayton

A soldier with the 7th Special Forces Group (Airborne) died on Sunday, Dec. 22 at Eglin Air Force Base after being shot in a hunting accident.

Sgt. Thomas Lazzaro, with 2nd Battalion, 7th Special Forces Group (Airborne), died after being hit by a stray round on Sunday. The bullet was fired by a hunter who was shooting on the Eglin range, a popular hunting location. A spokesperson for 7th Special Forces Group confirmed his identity and death. He was 27.

According to the spokesperson, Lazzaro was driving to the range to help a fellow soldier who was having car trouble. The Walton County Sheriff’s Office, which arrived on the scene on Sunday, described the incident as a “tragic hunting accident.” All parties were cooperating with authorities.

“We deeply mourn the loss of U.S. Army Sgt. Thomas Lazzaro of the 2nd Battalion, 7th Special Forces Group (Airborne),” Col. Patrick Nelson, 7th SFG(A) commander, said in a statement. “We will never forget his dedication, courage, and commitment to safeguarding our freedoms. His absence leaves a void that will be felt professionally and personally among those who had the honor of working with Thomas. Our heartfelt condolences extend to his family, friends, and comrades during this difficult time.

Lazzaro was previously a quarterback for Central Michigan University. He joined the Army after graduating, with a contract to go directly into Special Forces. Both his father and grandfather served in the Army, according to a statement from Central Michigan University.

7th Special Forces Group is based out of Eglin Air Force Base, which is home to several major units. The 6th Ranger Training Battalion conducts the final part of the Army Ranger Course at the base. The range covers several hundred square miles of land in the Florida panhandle.

A funeral is set for Saturday,Dec. 28 in Fort Walton Beach, Florida, where Lazzaro will be buried with full military honors, according to CMU.

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taskandpurpose.com · by Nicholas Slayton

18. ‘The Dark Path’ Review: Rivalry and the Roar of Guns

An excellent conclusion to this review essay:

Conclusion:

There is a paradox at the heart of “The Dark Path.” Murray is aware of it but never quite resolves it. On the one hand, because war is essentially a matter of attrition, in which the stronger side eventually wins, a war’s outcome should be in some way predictable. On the other hand, as Clausewitz said, there is always “friction” in war: Things do not go as expected. The U.S. failed in Afghanistan, for instance—and Russia failed to win a quick victory in Ukraine—despite enjoying resource superiority. This tension between friction and attrition is the real key to war, which leads us down dark paths whose destination is uncertain.

‘The Dark Path’ Review: Rivalry and the Roar of Guns

Fierce competition and inventions such as gunpowder spurred the rapid evolution of military power in Europe. Many battles were still won by sheer numbers.

https://www.wsj.com/arts-culture/books/the-dark-path-review-rivalry-and-the-roar-of-guns-5b42eb06?st=nBFMp4&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

By Brendan Simms

Dec. 27, 2024 9:07 am ET

A detail of ‘Defense of the Gironella Tower’ (1919) by Cristòfol Montserrat Jorba. Photo: Alamy

War, the Greek philosopher Heraclitus said, “is the father of all things.” Over the centuries, the conflicts between states have indeed brought about all sorts of changes in societies and civilizations: cultural, economic and, not least, political. These changes, in turn, have enabled states to wage war with ever greater ferocity and efficacy. As Charles Tilly, the 20th-century social theorist, put it: “War made the state and the state made war.”

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The Dark Path: The Structure of War and the Rise of the West

By Williamson Murray

Yale University Press

488 pages

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In “The Dark Path,” Williamson Murray traces the story of war making from the 16th century to the present day, registering, as his subtitle has it, “the structure of war and the rise of the West.” Murray, who died last year at the age of 81, was a professor emeritus at Ohio State University and an expert on modern military history. One of his earliest books, “Strategy for Defeat” (1983), took up the role of the Luftwaffe in World War II. He would go on to address a range of topics in more than a dozen books, including “The Air War in the Persian Gulf” (1995) and “Military Adaptation in War” (2011). Among much else, “The Dark Path” can be seen as the culmination of a lifetime of scholarly research and sustained study.

Murray says that, until 1500 or so, the West had no great claim to military superiority. For centuries after the fall of the Roman Empire, Europe was beset not by war as we understand the term but by “the meanderings of powerful tribes bent on loot, rapine, slaughter, and land.” It was only in the early modern period that there began a competition among “the ruthless and at times murderous states that made up the Western world.” It was this competition, Murray says, that drove the West forward, requiring constant innovation and adaptation. It was one reason why Asia and Africa—“the rest”—fell behind the West and, incidentally, why “The Dark Path” is so Western-centric.

The “gunpowder revolution,” Murray says, was a momentous event of the early modern period. Though invented in the East, gunpowder had only small-scale effects there. In Europe it spurred, Murray says, the invention of cannons that could bring down a castle wall in mere days. One response was to build fortifications that were low and designed to absorb artillery shots. Meanwhile, ships were being made with enough sturdiness to carry cannons “without suffering structural damage from the recoil.” The steady improvement of sailing vessels from the 15th to the 17th centuries “counts as a significant revolution in military affairs,” Murray writes. It was made possible, in part, by the emergence of state bureaucracies that could mobilize the resources for war—wood and metal, foundries and shipyards, and men.

The mobilizing of resources took a leap forward in the late 18th century, Murray argues, when the French revolutionaries instituted a levée en masse (a version of mass conscription). The state drew broadly from its ideologically enthused population and threw its recruits at the professional armies of the anciens régimes. Murray quotes Lazare Hoche, a general in the revolutionary army, describing French tactics: “no maneuvers, no skill, steel, firepower and patriotism.”

Another sort of revolution—an industrial one—would give Britain a superiority in military production and help to defeat post-Revolutionary France. Murray cites Viscount Castlereagh telling the House of Commons, in 1813, that Britain had shipped a million muskets to the Continent to support the war against Napoleon. One shipment alone, to Prussia in August, contained 2,000 barrels of powder and five million cartridges. All manner of technological feats lay behind such productivity—among them, harnessing the power of coal for manufacturing.

Murray sees the next stage in military evolution as a combination of the French Revolution’s mass mobilization and the Industrial Revolution’s mass production—mass warfare. The first striking instance is the American Civil War, but it can be seen, he says, in the German wars of unification throughout the 1860s and, most vividly, in World War I, when warring states were able to mobilize “vastly increased populations” and raise “unheard of sums of money.” Mass warfare went global with World War II.

The last revolution in Murray’s historical survey is something rather different—a stage of warfare dominated by precision weapons and computers and initially propelled by the necessities of a “war that never was”: the Cold War. Its effects were epochal all the same. To take one example, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (Darpa), begun in the Cold War, fathered the internet and thus shaped the world we live in today.

Murray argues persuasively that, in the periods he is writing about, victory was decided largely not by tactical brilliance or maneuver but by attrition—the overwhelming effect of superior numbers (supplies, weapons, combatants). The Grand Alliance wore down Louis XIV during the War of the Spanish Succession; allied coalitions crushed Napoleon; the industrial North overpowered the poorer South in the Civil War; the Entente thwarted Imperial Germany during World War I; and the Allies pulverized Germany and Japan during World War II. The Soviet Union was unable to keep up with American defense spending during the Cold War. The losers sometimes demonstrated greater valor and skill but to no lasting effect.

Murray undoubtedly chronicles a story of epic achievement in “The Dark Path” but also one of waste: the waste of treasure, of effort and, above all, of life. The path was indeed dark. But he doesn’t think that war is pointless. His epigraph to a chapter on the Pacific War cites Clausewitz: “Kind-hearted people might come to think there was some ingenious way to disarm or defeat an enemy without too much bloodshed and might imagine that this is the true goal of the art of war. Pleasant as it sounds it is a fallacy… . War is such a dangerous business that the mistakes which come from kindness are the worst.”

It should be said that the case being made by Murray is not new. It originated in the ancient world and has been a staple of modern historiography at least since the Prussian historian Otto Hintze (1861-1940). Murray duly acknowledges his debts, not least to the giants whose work preceded his, such as Geoffrey Parker in “The Military Revolution” (1988). His emphasis on attrition, as he again notes, builds on groundbreaking books by Phillips O’Brien and Adam Tooze.

As for his argument’s presentation, it is sometimes repetitious, and in the book’s first half the classic military narrative sits oddly with the overall theme. At times significant events, such as the Russian Revolution, are dealt with in a rushed way. There are also a few questionable assertions, most notably the idea that Hitler underestimated American industrial power when he declared war on the U.S. in December 1941. It was fear of U.S. strength that caused him to try to pre-empt what he believed to be America’s inevitable entry into the war.

There is a paradox at the heart of “The Dark Path.” Murray is aware of it but never quite resolves it. On the one hand, because war is essentially a matter of attrition, in which the stronger side eventually wins, a war’s outcome should be in some way predictable. On the other hand, as Clausewitz said, there is always “friction” in war: Things do not go as expected. The U.S. failed in Afghanistan, for instance—and Russia failed to win a quick victory in Ukraine—despite enjoying resource superiority. This tension between friction and attrition is the real key to war, which leads us down dark paths whose destination is uncertain.

Mr. Simms is the author of “Hitler: A Global Biography.”

De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

Phone: 202-573-8647

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com

De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com

If you do not read anything else in the 2017 National Security Strategy read this on page 14:

"A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation."

Access NSS HERE

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