Weekly Newsletter

Portfolio Advisory Council, LLC presents:

January 3, 2022

THE WEEKLY ECONOMIC

UPDATE

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

"The bad news is time flies. The good news is you're the pilot."

~ MICHAEL ALTSHULER

THE WEEK ON WALL STREET

Stocks closed out the year on a mostly positive note, adding to the year’s gains as concerns about the economic issues of Omicron infections receded.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.08%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 picked up 0.85%. The Nasdaq Composite index was flat (-0.05%) for the week. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, posted an increase of 0.80%.^1,2,3

STOCKS NOTCH RECORD HIGHS

The end of the year is historically a strong period for stocks–a seasonal pattern dubbed “The Santa Claus Rally.” This year’s final week of trading did not disappoint as stocks posted healthy gains to kick off the week, despite a global increase in Omicron infections. Investors were buoyed by data that showed fewer associated hospitalizations, which helped ease fears of the variant’s economic impact.

The S&P 500 set multiple fresh record highs, with Wednesday’s new high representing the 70th such high in 2021, while the Dow Industrials recorded its first new record since November. Stocks drifted on low trading volume in the final two trading days of the year, capping a good week, a solid month, and a strong year for investors.⁴

ROBUST HOLIDAY SALES

The market got off to a good start last week in part due to a strong holiday sales report. A major credit card issuer reported that consumer holiday spending rose 8.5% from last year’s levels, driven by an 11.0% gain in online sales. It was the biggest annual increase in 17 years. The spending by consumers exceeded pre-pandemic sales by 10.7%. The retail categories that experienced the highest sales increases were apparel (+47.3%) and jewelry (+32.0%).⁵

It was a particularly robust number in view of investor concerns about supply chain disruptions, port congestion, labor shortages, and wavering consumer confidence.

BY THE NUMBER$

JOBLESS - The lowest (3.5%) and the highest (14.7%) unemployment rates in the United States since 1970 occurred 2 months apart in 2020. Our jobless rate in November 2021 was 4.2% (source: Department of Labor).

WONDER WHY? - 27.1 million Americans moved in the last year, 8.4% of the US population. That’s the lowest percentage of Americans that reported living at a different residence in an annual survey conducted since 1948. 25 years ago (1996), 16.3% of Americans moved in the prior 12 months (source: Census Bureau). # 8, 12/06/21

THEY’RE IN EVERYTHING - 75% of the semiconductor chips manufactured in the world today are made in Asia. Just 12% of all chips are made in the USA (source: Semiconductor Industry Association). 6

THE WEEK AHEAD: KEY ECONOMIC DATA

Tuesday: JOLTS (Job Openings and Turnover Survey). Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI).

Thursday: Jobless Claims. Factory Orders. Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Non- Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI).

Friday: Employment Situation.

Source: Econoday, December 31, 2021

The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.

THE WEEK AHEAD: COMPANIES REPORTING EARNINGS

Thursday: Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ), Walgreens Boots Alliance, Inc. (WBA), Conagra Brands (CAG).

Source: Zacks, December 31, 2021

Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.

THE WEEKLY RIDDLE

I was framed, yet the man who framed me committed no crime. How is this possible?

LAST EDITION’S RIDDLE: Tim hands a friend $63 using six bills, none of which are dollar bills. How is he able to do this?

ANSWER: One $50 bill, one $5 bill, and four $2 bills.

Portfolio Advisory Council, LLC

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James W. Hamilton, CFS, AIF

713.574.6025

W. Thomas Sutton CFP(R), ChFC, CLU

713.574.6020

Philip B. Moran, MBA, ChFC, CFP(R), AIF

713.574.6030

John C. Husbands

Visit us at www.pac1000.com

Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost.

The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice.

The market indexes discussed are unmanaged, and generally, considered representative of their respective markets. Index performance is not indicative of the past performance of a particular investment. Indexes do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses. Individuals cannot directly invest in unmanaged indexes. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of large-capitalization companies on the U.S. stock market. Nasdaq Composite is an index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the Nasdaq stock market and is considered a broad indicator of the performance of technology and growth companies. The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) and serves as a benchmark of the performance of major international equity markets, as represented by 21 major MSCI indexes from Europe, Australia, and Southeast Asia. The S&P 500 Composite Index is an unmanaged group of securities that are considered to be representative of the stock market in general.

U.S. Treasury Notes are guaranteed by the federal government as to the timely payment of principal and interest. However, if you sell a Treasury Note prior to maturity, it may be worth more or less than the original price paid. Fixed income investments are subject to various risks including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications and other factors.

International investments carry additional risks, which include differences in financial reporting standards, currency exchange rates, political risks unique to a specific country, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets. These factors may result in greater share price volatility.

Please consult your financial professional for additional information.

This content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice. Please consult legal or tax professionals for specific information regarding your individual situation. This material was developed and produced by FMG Suite to provide information on a topic that may be of interest. FMG is not affiliated with the named representative, financial professional, Registered Investment Advisor, Broker-Dealer, nor state- or SEC-registered investment advisory firm. The opinions expressed and material provided are for general information, and they should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security.

CITATIONS:

1. The Wall Street Journal, December 31, 2021

2. The Wall Street Journal, December 31, 2021

3. The Wall Street Journal, December 31, 2021

4. CNBC, December 29, 2021

5. CNBC, December 27, 2021