Quotes of the Day:

“In anger we should refrain both from speech and action.”

- Pythagoras

"To build may have to be the slow and laborious task of years. To destroy can be the thoughtless act of a single day." 

- Winston Churchill

"The greater the power, the more dangerous the abuse."

- Edmund Burke

1. S. Korea seeks to coordinate with U.S. over 'audacious plan' for N. Korea

2. FM says S. Korea-Japan summit feasible when forced labor issues are resolved

3. N.K. stockpile of fissile materials increased by 10 percent over past 5 years: defense minister

4. Unclaimed bodies in rivers probably came from North Korea

5. Defense contractors set their sights on European market

6. Veteran Affairs Minister has busy itinerary in Washington

7. ＜Inside N. Korea＞ Signs of a new surge of COVID-19 in N. Korea…Restrictions are intensifying again while some suggest that a new variant has hit the country

8. Don't Be Shocked if South Korea Wants Nuclear Weapons

9. N. Korea in festive mood ahead of 'Victory Day'; all eyes on Kim Jong-un's likely message

10. S. Korean, US defense chiefs to discuss alliance deterrence, readiness against N. Korea threats

11. Domestic politics presents major stumbling block to Korea-Japan relations

12. China falling, US rising as Korea's export destinations

13. 'Korea's nuclear power industry became 40% less competitive under Moon gov't'

14. N.Korea Faces Famine

15. FDD | Cyber Vulnerabilities in Medical Devices Put Patients at Risk

16. Korea to Sell 48 Fighter Jets to Poland

17. N. Korea lengthens period "party life records" for military cadres are stored

18. Pathos of Peace Protest in South Korea Arises From Its Naivete

19. The pros and cons of a nuclear South Korea

20. South Koreans offer Aussies new subs in 7 years to close Collins gap

21. How Koreans fell in love with an American World War II era personality test

1. S. Korea seeks to coordinate with U.S. over 'audacious plan' for N. Korea

Korea must be unified by Koreans. But as a blood ally the US has a role in supporting South Korea to achieve the only acceptable durable political arrangement that will protect, support, and advance Korean and US interests which is a free and unified Korea: A United Republic of Korea (UROK).

S. Korea seeks to coordinate with U.S. over 'audacious plan' for N. Korea | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by 이해아 · July 25, 2022

SEOUL, July 25 (Yonhap) -- South Korea is seeking to coordinate with the United States and other countries before announcing the details of its "audacious plan" to revive North Korea's economy in the event it accepts denuclearization, a presidential official said Monday.

Yoon outlined the plan in his inauguration speech on May 10, saying if North Korea genuinely embarks on a process to complete denuclearization, South Korea will be prepared to present an "audacious plan" to vastly strengthen North Korea's economy and improve the quality of life for its people.

Last week, he asked Unification Minister Kwon Young-se to come up with the details.

"We're in the process of filling in the details of the audacious plan," the presidential official told reporters. "I can tell you that we're nearly in the final stage of establishing its broad principles and direction."

Still, the official said he expects the details to take some time.

"It's far more realistic and likely to be accepted by North Korea if we announce it after sufficient consultations with the United States and other relevant countries, so we're trying hard to include such details," the official said.

On speculation that North Korea will go ahead with what would be its seventh nuclear test this week, the official repeated past government assessments that the North has completed all preparations for the test.

In the event it conducts the test, the government will be ready to respond through "various measures," the official added.

Asked to assess the COVID-19 situation in North Korea, the official said the outbreak has put additional pressure on the country and caused it additional pain at a time when it is already suffering under tough international sanctions over its nuclear weapons program.

"There are reports that people are starving to death, and if we carry out a joint analysis of North Korea's economic situation, sanctions situation, COVID-19, other diseases, damage from heavy rains and other such things, I can tell you it's not so surprising that people are dying of starvation," the official said.

When asked whether the presidential National Security Office under President Yoon Suk-yeol was able to separately assess the truth behind the 2019 repatriation of two North Korean fishermen, who were sent back by the previous Moon Jae-in administration despite their reported intentions to defect, the official said it received no information during the transition period.

"After a proper investigation began into the issue, we took steps to verify whether there was relevant material at our National Security Office, but there was surprisingly none," the official said.

hague@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by 이해아 · July 25, 2022

2. FM says S. Korea-Japan summit feasible when forced labor issues are resolved

Then I fear that it may be a long time ​before there is a summit.

FM says S. Korea-Japan summit feasible when forced labor issues are resolved | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by 이민지 · July 25, 2022

SEOUL, July 25 (Yonhap) -- Foreign Minister Psrk Jin said Monday he believes a summit with Japan will take place once thorny issues, like Japan's wartime forced labor, are resolved.

"I anticipate that a summit between South Korea and Japan will likely be held when desirable resolutions for ongoing issues, like wartime forced labor, are prepared," Foreign Minister Park Jin told a parliamentary interpellation session.

Acknowledging that bilateral ties between the two countries are unlikely to recover without such a resolution, Park said the government will aim to find a "reasonable measure" for both countries while respecting the opinions of the victims.

When asked about possible measures to mend ties, Park said the government is reviewing many options such as former National Assembly Speaker Moon Hee-sang's proposal to launch a fund for the victims backed by both companies and people of South Korea and Japan.

On diplomatic ties with China, Park voiced regret over the preceding Moon Jae-in government's policies.

"There are several unsatisfactory areas," he said. "China is our biggest trade partner whom we share a long history with. It is desirable to lead the relationship in a healthy and mature manner but there has been a lack of communication, trust and strategic dialogue, which did not meet the public's anticipation."

Park also spoke on the Moon government's principle of the so-called 3 No's policy of no additional THAAD deployments, no participation in a U.S.-led missile defense program and no formation of a trilateral military alliance with the U.S. and Japan.

"Since this is an agenda relevant to our national security sovereignty, we should be making the judgment ourselves. It is hard to accept China's demand that we should keep the promise," he said, urging Beijing to play a more "constructive" role in North Korea's denuclearization.

mlee@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by 이민지 · July 25, 2022

3. N.K. stockpile of fissile materials increased by 10 percent over past 5 years: defense minister

N.K. stockpile of fissile materials increased by 10 percent over past 5 years: defense minister | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by 김나영 · July 25, 2022

SEOUL, July 25 (Yonhap) -- North Korea's stockpile of weapons-grade plutonium and uranium is believed to have increased by about 10 percent since a 2018 inter-Korean summit where it committed to denuclearization, Defense Minister Lee Jong-sup said Monday.

"North Korea possesses a considerable amount of fissile materials and is believed to have steadily produced them for the past five years," Lee said during a parliamentary interpellation session in response to a question how many nuclear weapons the North has produced since the 2018 summit.

Pressed to be more specific about the increase in the North's holdings of plutonium and highly enriched uranium, Lee said, "There are limitations to saying exact numbers, but we assess that it has increased by about 10 percent."

Lee also said the North is ready to conduct its seventh nuclear test at any time.

"We believe North Korea has completed most of the preparations needed for the seventh nuclear test, and the timing of the test depends on Kim Jong-un's decision," Lee said, calling North Korea's nuclear programs "a serious threat to South Korea and the international community."

Lee said the North is expected to conduct a nuclear test from tunnel number 3 at its Punggyeri nuclear testing site with the aim of advancing its capabilities so as to build smaller and lighter nuclear weapons.

nyway@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by 김나영 · July 25, 2022

4. Unclaimed bodies in rivers probably came from North Korea

Unfortunately this happens during the Monsoon.

Monday

July 25, 2022

Unclaimed bodies in rivers probably came from North Korea

https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/2022/07/25/national/northKorea/Korea-North-Korea-bodies/20220725175045975.html

Water is released from the Gunnam Dam on the Imjin River in northern Gyeonggi on June 29. [YONHAP]

Four bodies suspected of originating in North Korea have washed up in rivers in Gyeonggi this past month, raising questions about how and why they ended up dead in the South.

The most recent body — of an adult woman — was discovered by a camper in a bush along the Imjin River, downstream from the Gunnam Dam, around 8:25 a.m. on Saturday, according to Yeoncheon Police Precinct.

The source of the Imjin River is north of the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) that divides the two Koreas and flows through northern Gyeonggi in South Korea before emptying into the Yellow Sea at Ganghwa Island, north of Incheon.

A police official who spoke to the JoongAng Ilbo on condition of anonymity said the female corpse had decomposed to the extent that investigators could not give an immediate estimate of the woman’s age.

Police were only able to tentatively conclude that the body originated in North Korea based on the woman’s attire, which featured badges with the portraits of former North Korean leaders Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong-il.

Police sent the corpse to the National Forensic Service for an autopsy.

Should DNA tests reveal that the woman was from North Korea, it is expected that the Unification Ministry will contact the North to return her body.

On July 2, the body of a child estimated to be between the age of three and seven was discovered on a mud flat off Gyodong Island at the mouth of the Imjin River. 

Three days later, the body of a child around the age of eight was discovered in Gimpo along the banks of the Han River estuary, not far from where the Han meets the Imjin as it flows towards the Yellow Sea. 

The boy was wearing shorts with no brand and a rubber band around his waist, which would be unusual on a South Korean child. 

Another infant body of indeterminate age was discovered in the Imjin River near the Unification Bridge in Paju, northern Gyeonggi on July 16.

Recent torrential downpours in North Korea suggest the bodies may have washed up in South Korea after the North opened the Hwang River Dam, which is located upstream from the Imjin River.

The fact that no reports of missing children were received in northern Gyeonggi has added to police suspicions that the discoveries are children from North Korea.

“If it was the child of a nearby resident or traveler, they would have almost certainly filed a missing person’s report,” said a police officer.

However, police have not ruled out the possibility that some of the bodies could be that of missing South Korean children and are focusing on identifying the bodies and their causes of death.

BY MICHAEL LEE [lee.junhyuk@joongang.co.kr]

5. Defense contractors set their sights on European market

Monday

July 25, 2022

Defense contractors set their sights on European market

https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/2022/07/25/business/industry/Korea-K9-Hyundai-Rotem/20220725193426639.html

Hyundai Rotem's K2 tank in maneuver training [HYUNDAI ROTEM]

Korean defense companies are set to sign at least $10 billion in defense deals with the Polish government as tensions build in Europe and countries seek to arm quickly and efficiently to prepare for possible conflict.

With European nations — many of them being members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) ― upping military budgets, arms manufacturers have been targeting them.

The Polish defense minister confirmed last week that the country will buy jets, tanks and howitzers from Korea. According to Korean media reports, a memorandum of understanding will be signed on July 27. The Korean government and defense companies declined to comment. 

The companies said to be involved in the deals are: Hyundai Rotem for delivering K2 tanks, Korea Aerospace Industries(KAI) for FA50 fighter jets and Hanwha Defense for K9 howitzers.

The size of the deals will total 19 trillion won ($14.5 billion) to 25 trillion won, according to the reports. 

It will be the first time for the K2 and FA50 to be sold in Europe, although the K9s have been delivered to Finland, Norway, Estonia and Poland in the past. 

Hanwha Defense's K9 howitzer [HANWHA DEFENSE]

The defense players hope that the signing of the deal could become a watershed moment for entry into a wide range of markets as exports of weapons have traditionally been limited to certain countries in Asia and Oceania. 

Fifty-five percent of the arms exports were delivered to Asian and Oceanic countries between 2015 and 2019, according to Korea Research Institute for Defense Technology Planning and Advancement. 

European countries only took 23 percent during the period, followed by the Middle East at 14 percent.

In gaining potential contracts, the Korean companies boosted their appeal with competitive price tags and customization when bidding with rival suppliers based in Europe. 

Hyundai Rotem has been offering region-specific K2 models. 

"Norway carried out a field test of the K2 battle tanks as it considers buying them," said Na Seung-doo, an analyst at SK Securities. "A chief rival in the bidding is Krauss Maffei Wegmann's Leopard. But it seems that the K2 has an upper hand in price and greater mobility." 

Hanwha Defense is eyeing Britain as it is pitching its K9 howitzers to replace aging AS 90 artillery weapons. 

Vice Defense Minister Shin Beom-chul called attention to the K9s during a meeting with British Defense Procurement Minister Jeremy Quin earlier this month. 

"A 1-trillion-won project has kicked off to replace the AS90 and Hanwha Defense is among the bidders," Shin told reporters last week. 

"The K9 supplier will work with other British companies in participating in the bidding," he said. 

The Ukraine-Russia war was a wake-up call for a number of European countries that assumed that armed conflict was relegated to history. 

Since the start of the war, six NATO members have pledged defense increases totaling $133 billion. Poland vowed to boost defense spending to 3 percent of gross domestic product — one of the highest levels in NATO. 

The Korea government was reportedly very involved in the negotiations, with talks at very high levels and the product being pitched as a package.

President Yoon Suk-yeol met with Polish President Andrzej Duda in June at the NATO summit in Madrid. 

Choi Sang-mok, senior secretary for economic affairs, said that the two had an in-depth discussion on cooperation in defense, expecting "a viable result" soon.

The expectations surrounding the mega deal have been reflected in stock prices of the defense companies.

Shares of Hyundai Rotem went up 2.7 percent to close at 25,050 won on Monday, following a 20.8 percent surge last Friday. KAI jumped by 5.9 percent to 53,800 won, while Hanwha Aerospace, which owns Hanwha Defense, rose 3.6 percent to 51,700 won.

BY PARK EUN-JEE [park.eunjee@joongang.co.kr]

6. Veteran Affairs Minister has busy itinerary in Washington

This is a big week to remember the history of the Alliance and fallen Korean and American patriots.

Monday

July 25, 2022

Veteran Affairs Minister has busy itinerary in Washington

https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/2022/07/25/national/diplomacy/korea-korean-war-veterans/20220725183156366.html

Minister of Patriots and Veterans Affairs Park Min-shik, center, with Annelie Weber, left, widow of Korean War veteran Col. William Weber, at their home in Maryland on Sunday. [YONHAP]

Minister of Patriots and Veterans Affairs Park Min-shik began a week-long trip to Washington D.C. on Sunday to attend the completion of the Wall of Remembrance, dedicated to American and Korean soldiers killed during the 1950-53 Korean War.

The Wall of Remembrance, which displays the names of 43,808 American and South Korean soldiers killed during the war at the Korean War Veterans Memorial in Washington, is scheduled to be completed on Wednesday, which also marks the 69th anniversary of the end of the war.

Park will attend the completion ceremony on behalf of President Yoon Suk-yeol, the ministry said.

The wall took nearly six years to build since the U.S. Congress enacted a law in October 2016 to authorize the Korean War Veterans Memorial Foundation to construct the wall. 

The names were organized by rank and respective branch of service, “demonstrating how the War’s burden fell unevenly across the military,” according to the foundation. 

This photo, taken July 20, shows the Wall of Remembrance, which displays the names of 43,808 U.S. and South Korean soldiers killed during the 1950-53 Korean War, at the Korean War Veterans Memorial in Washington. South Korea and the United States are set to dedicate the latest addition to the memorial on July 27 to mark the 69th anniversary of the end of the three-year conflict. [YONHAP]

Park visited the home of U.S. Army Col. William Weber in Maryland on Sunday, paying his respects to the family of the colonel who was not only a highly decorated veteran but also instrumental in the efforts to build the Wall of Remembrance.

Park presented the colonel’s widow, Annelie Weber, with a plaque for Korean War veterans, meant to be hung at the door to indicate to visitors that they are entering a veteran’s home.

“It is very meaningful to have the Korean War Veterans House plaque hung on the home of Col. Weber, a hero and symbol of the Korea-U.S. alliance,” Park was quoted as saying during his meeting with Mrs. Weber. “The Korean government will do its best to ensure that a stronger Korea-U.S. alliance continues into future generations.”

Mrs. Weber was reported by the Korea Daily, an affiliate of the Korea JoongAng Daily in the United States, to have expressed her gratitude, adding that had the colonel seen the plaque in person he would have been very happy. 

Col. Weber died in his home in Maryland in April. Weber served in the war from 1950 but was injured in February 1951 during a battle in Wonju, where he lost his right leg and arm. Despite his injuries, the colonel remained on active duty through his retirement in 1980.

He was one of the American veterans who lobbied for the Wall of Remembrance to be built. 

Park was scheduled to visit a veterans hospital in Washington on Monday, and Arlington National Cemetery to pay his respects at the graves of Col. Weber, Gen. Harris Walton Walker, first commander of the Eighth Army during the war, as well as Gen. James Alward Van Fleet and Gen. Matthew Bunker Ridgway. 

Park was also set to attend on Tuesday a meeting with some 65 teachers of history and sociology to discuss textbook materials on the Korean War.

He will fly to Hawaii on Friday and pay his respects at the National Memorial Cemetery of the Pacific. He was also scheduled to meet with Commander of the U.S. Pacific Fleet Admiral Samuel J. Paparo Jr., and veterans of the Korean War, as well as Korean and American soldiers participating in the U.S.-led Rim of the Pacific (Rimpac) exercises in Hawaii. 

BY ESTHER CHUNG [chung.juhee@joongang.co.kr]

7. ＜Inside N. Korea＞ Signs of a new surge of COVID-19 in N. Korea…Restrictions are intensifying again while some suggest that a new variant has hit the country

＜Inside N. Korea＞ Signs of a new surge of COVID-19 in N. Korea…Restrictions are intensifying again while some suggest that a new variant has hit the country

asiapress.org

A young border guard (left) and an ordinary soldier wear masks and guard behind barbed wire. They are thin. Photographed in July 2021 from the Chinese side of Sinuiju City (ASIAPRESS).

North Korea is again tightening coronavirus-related restrictions in the northern part of the country, with schools and workplaces reverting to rotating schedules and the authorities conducting thorough disinfections and locking down areas with fever patients. There are also reports from the country that people are suffering from symptoms unseen before. (KANG Ji-Won)

◆ Has a new variant hit North Korea？

Several days after the North Korean regime’s announcement of a COVID-19 outbreak on May 12, the authorities in Hyesan closed down workplaces and markets while claiming there had been a drastic rise in fever patients. Then the authorities implemented a complete lockdown of the city. The lockdown was lifted around one month later with the relaxation of restrictions on movement and the reopening of markets.

However, by mid-July, the authorities suddenly began tightening restrictions, according to an ASIAPRESS reporting partner in the city. Schools implemented rotating schedules, with students at all schools and in all grades starting their day either in the morning or afternoon. Workplaces implemented rotating schedules for their workers as well.

“The markets are open, but all the disinfectant being sprayed has turned their floors white. Anyone entering the markets must go through a temperature check,” the reporting partner said. “I’ve heard schools will begin their summer vacations earlier than the original August 1 start date. The government has provided three masks to each household free-of-charge.”

However, the North Korean government has not provided any official explanation for the intensifying of its disease control measures. ASIAPRESS’s reporting partner said that there are rumors among government officials that another variant of COVID-19 has appeared that is more infectious and causes different symptoms than past variants.

“The main symptoms (of COVID-19) included sore throats, coughing, nasal congestion and fever, but now there is word that there are people suffering from cramps and a little congestion,” said the reporting partner. “State media reported on the emergence of new variants throughout the world, so people are thinking that (the appearance of a new variant in North Korea) may be a possibility.”

◆ Some parts of Musan County are put under lockdown again

Disease control restrictions in Musan County, North Hamgyung Province, have also tightened as of late. An ASIAPRESS reporting partner reported on July 21 that, “There’s been a large number of fever patients, so the (authorities) said there was another surge of COVID-19 and locked down two districts and three neighborhood watch units. They plan to consider lifting the lockdown after watching the situation for 7-10 days. They are just handing out Chinese fever reducers to people with fevers. No one’s received medical treatment.”

From May, the number of fever patients surged in Yanggang and North Hamgyung provinces. A recent investigation by ASIAPRESS found that the surge, along with the widespread malnutrition and severe lack of medications, led to deaths of the elderly and people with preexisting conditions.

◆ Reporting partners express frustration at seemingly endless pandemic

ASIAPRESS explained to its reporting partners that new variants of COVID-19 have spread in Japan and South Korea and that the countries have experienced multiple wanes and surges in the pandemic. ASIAPRESS also told them that most citizens of those countries have received three shots of vaccine.

In response, the reporting partners generally expressed frustration that the COVID-19 pandemic will likely continue for the time being. They also expressed surprise that Japanese and South Korean people had received three shots of vaccine.

North Korean authorities continue to publish the daily number of fever patients. These numbers have fallen considerable since late June. While it’s unclear whether the numbers accurately reflect reality, the regime stated that there were around 120 fever patients on July 23.

※ ASIAPRESS communicates with reporting partners through Chinese cell phones smuggled into North Korea.

asiapress.org

8. Don't Be Shocked if South Korea Wants Nuclear Weapons

I am becoming more and more convinced that South Korea will go nuclear.  But the question is will South Korean possession of nuclear weapons contribute to deterrence of the Kim family regime.

Excerpts:

The most obvious answer to this tangle is that South Korea develop a small, indigenous nuclear arsenal to directly deter North Korea on its own. That would be a dramatic step though. There would be US and Chinese resistance. Other options include US ‘nuclear sharing,’ the re-introduction of US tactical nuclear weapons, or perhaps, South Korea’s development of only tactical weapons.

For now, the US is adamantly opposed and South Korean officials do not publicly say they want this option. The discussion is limited to ‘track 2’ voices – academics, think-tankers, and former military officials. But that is where new ideas usually come from before they penetrate the formal bureaucracy.

If North Korea tests yet again this – it would be the North’s seventh nuclear test – South Korean public opinion will likely shift to the right yet again, and the nuclearization debate will go fully mainstream. And since North Korea has no intention of stopping its program, it is only a matter of time before this happens. US officials need to start considering how to answer this rising debate.

Don't Be Shocked if South Korea Wants Nuclear Weapons

19fortyfive.com · by ByRobert Kelly · July 24, 2022

In South Korea, the discussion of developing indigenous nuclear weapons is expanding. South Korean public opinion is moving on this issue, as is the national debate (here, here, here, here). What was once a fringe area of discussion is now increasingly debated. At the Asian Leadership Conference in Seoul last week, there was more open discussion of South Korean nuclearization than I have seen in the fourteen years I have taught national security in South Korea. Should North Korea perform another nuclear weapons test this year – as is widely expected – the debate will shift again. The Overton window on the possession of indigenous nuclear weapons in South Korea is moving to the right, and U.S. officials, traditionally hostile to South Korean nuclearization, will need to consider this growing discourse before simply insisting that Seoul not build them regardless of public interest.

Traditional US Opposition

The United States is South Korea’s only treaty ally. While the South has many democratic partners in a general sense, it has poor relations with the other major democracy in its neighborhood – Japan. And the European Union is far away. So the South’s relationship with the US is unique. Indeed, South Korea’s exposure to autocracies like China and North Korea mean that the US alliance is crucial for its security. This is turn gives the US substantial leverage over South Korean foreign policy.

The US used the leverage in the 1970s to derail an earlier South Korean effort to develop nuclear weapons. At the time, the South was governed by a dictator, Park Chung-Hee. Park feared South Korean conventional inferiority to North Korea and that the US might withdraw further from East Asia after it gave up on the Vietnam War in the early 1970s. And indeed, President Jimmy Carter tried to remove US forces from South Korea in the late 1970s. Carter sought to place human rights at the center of US foreign policy, and Park had built a repressive police apparatus.

Carter’s effort was stymied by Congressional and bureaucratic resistance. But not before the administration of previous President Gerald Ford had forced Park to give up his clandestine nuclear ambitions. In doing so, the US also pushed South Korea into the Non-Proliferation Treaty. The NPT requires non-nuclear signatories to refrain from developing nuclear weapons. North Korea was a member of the NPT too, from 1985 to 2003. So long as it did not have nuclear weapons, South Korea’s willingness to challenge the US to allow it to develop its own nukes was muted.

Why Nukes Now?

That disinterest though seems to be changing. This year – as demonstrated in the polling and scholarly debate – has seen a significant upswing in both the issue’s visibility and the public’s willingness to challenge South Korea’s participation in the NPT. 64% of the South Koreans in polling linked above supported indigenous nuclearization even if it meant – as it certainly would – exiting the NPT.

The core arguments for South Korean nuclearization are well-known by now. Elsewhere, I have argued that there are two core drivers, which American bureaucratic resistance will increasingly find hard to ignore:

First, since 2017, North Korea has had the ability to strike the US mainland with a nuclear missile. This means that if the US should intervene in a Korean contingency, North Korea could strike the US with a nuclear weapon. This in turn might discourage the US from supporting its South Korean ally directly, per treaty requirement. This commitment credibility problem is a well-known issue in alliances. During the Cold War, France and Britain were so skeptical that the US would fight a nuclear war on their behalf (against the Soviet Union), that they built their own nukes. South Korea (and Japan) are increasingly in a similar position regarding Chinese and, especially, North Korean nuclear weapons.

Second, Donald Trump may return to the US presidency in 2025. He was noticeably cool toward US allies, especially South Korea, during his presidency. Indeed, Trump threatened to remove US forces from South Korea altogether if re-elected. This would almost certainly push South Korea to nuclearize immediately.

These two threats drivers for nuclearization have been around for years though, so it is still unclear why nuclearization suddenly became a hot topic this year in South Korea. The most likely answer is the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin has very successfully used oblique threats of nuclear escalation to limit NATO involvement in the war. South Korean fears are that North Korean nuclear weapons might do the same here.

Options

The most obvious answer to this tangle is that South Korea develop a small, indigenous nuclear arsenal to directly deter North Korea on its own. That would be a dramatic step though. There would be US and Chinese resistance. Other options include US ‘nuclear sharing,’ the re-introduction of US tactical nuclear weapons, or perhaps, South Korea’s development of only tactical weapons.

For now, the US is adamantly opposed and South Korean officials do not publicly say they want this option. The discussion is limited to ‘track 2’ voices – academics, think-tankers, and former military officials. But that is where new ideas usually come from before they penetrate the formal bureaucracy.

If North Korea tests yet again this – it would be the North’s seventh nuclear test – South Korean public opinion will likely shift to the right yet again, and the nuclearization debate will go fully mainstream. And since North Korea has no intention of stopping its program, it is only a matter of time before this happens. US officials need to start considering how to answer this rising debate.

Dr. Robert E. Kelly (@Robert_E_Kelly; RobertEdwinKelly.com) is a professor of international relations in the Department of Political Science at Pusan National University. Dr. Kelly is now a 1945 Contributing Editor as well.

19fortyfive.com · by ByRobert Kelly · July 24, 2022

9. N. Korea in festive mood ahead of 'Victory Day'; all eyes on Kim Jong-un's likely message

​Yes we will be waiting for KJU's massage with bated breath. ​

N. Korea in festive mood ahead of 'Victory Day'; all eyes on Kim Jong-un's likely message

The Korea Times · July 25, 2022

A worker's art group performs on July 22, ahead of the 69th anniversary of what it calls "Victory Day," commemorating the signing of an armistice to terminate the 1950-53 Korean War, in this photo released by the North's Korean Central News Agency the following day. Yonhap

North Korea has been dialing up the celebratory mood ahead of an anniversary on the armistice agreement that ended the 1950-53 Korean War, state media reported Monday amid its strenuous efforts to promote internal unity and bolster leader Kim Jong-un's power grip.

The North is set to celebrate the 69th anniversary of the Korean War armistice signed July 27, 1953. The North calls the conflict the Great Fatherland Liberation War and designated the armistice signing date as "Victory Day."

The country's main newspaper, the Rodong Sinmun, stressed the importance of showing loyalty to the leader, saying the war points to the "noble truth that the North will always win if it trusts and follows the Supreme Leader," referring to Kim Il-sung, the late national founder and grandfather of Kim Jong-un, who is at the helm.

War-related documentary films will be aired as well on its state-run Korean Central Television.

A national conference of war veterans is slated to take place in Pyongyang this week despite concerns over a possible resurgence in COVID-19 cases following such a massive gathering. It would be the third consecutive year for the North to hold the event on the national holiday, which falls on Wednesday this year.

Drawing keen attention is whether Kim Jong-un will attend the event and deliver any special message not only for the domestic audience but also for those in the outside world, amid speculation that the secretive North seems to have completed preparations for an underground nuclear test. Kim has been out of public view for over two weeks.

North Korea celebrates this year's anniversary while continuing to battle to contain the coronavirus pandemic and boost its economy, with protracted border controls and international sanctions against the regime in place. (Yonhap)

The Korea Times · July 25, 2022

10. S. Korean, US defense chiefs to discuss alliance deterrence, readiness against N. Korea threats

Important work will get done in addition to recognition of the Armistice (which is also important)

S. Korean, US defense chiefs to discuss alliance deterrence, readiness against N. Korea threats

koreaherald.com · by Ji Da-gyum · July 25, 2022

Defense leaders plan to advance discussion on follow-up measures to May 21 summit

By Ji Da-gyum

Published : Jul 25, 2022 - 15:07 Updated : Jul 25, 2022 - 17:46

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Defense Minister Lee Jong-sup (R) and his U.S. counterpart, Lloyd Austin, pose for a photo before their talks on the sidelines of a security forum in Singapore on Saturday. (File Photo - Ministry of National Defense)

The South Korean and US defense chiefs are set to extensively discuss how to reinforce the alliance’s deterrence and defense posture to address evolving missile and nuclear threats from North Korea.

South Korean Defense Minister Lee Jong-sup is scheduled to make his first trip to the US between Tuesday and Saturday, South Korea’s Defense Ministry announced Monday.

Lee will meet US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on Friday to “share an assessment of the security situation on the Korean Peninsula and have an extensive discussion on various pending issues of the South Korea-US alliance,” the Defense Ministry said in a press statement.

In essence, Austin and Lee will advance their discussion on follow-up measures to the agreements made at the May 21 South Korea-US summit, a senior official at the Defense Ministry -- who asked to remain anonymous -- said Monday during a closed-door briefing.

The defense chiefs met for the first time on June 11 in Singapore on the sidelines of the Shangri-La Dialogue Asian security summit and had an initial discussion on the follow-up actions.

The four main agendas for the meeting are the security situation on the Korean Peninsula, the South Korea-US combined defense posture, trilateral security cooperation among South Korea, the US and Japan and regional situation and international security cooperation, according to the unnamed senior official.

Combined defense posture

The South Korean and US defense chiefs are expected to largely discuss the two related to combined defense posture: US extended deterrence and combined military exercises.

Austin and Lee will put heads together to figure out how to enhance the viability of the US extended deterrence against nuclear and missile threats from North Korea.

The two will “make considerable advancement” in their discussions on the reactivation of the vice ministerial-level Extended Deterrence Strategy and Consultation Group, the unnamed senior official said.

The last meeting of the EDSCG between South Korean and US vice ministers of foreign affairs and defense was held in January 2018. But Seoul and Washington have been in discussion to expeditiously hold an EDSCG meeting, the senior official said, declining to confirm the exact date.

A “concrete discussion” on the deployment of the US strategic assets on the Korean Peninsula will be held during the defense ministerial meeting.

The two defense chiefs also plan to discuss how to expand the scope and scale of the South Korea-US combined military exercises and training, which the South Korean and US presidents previously agreed on at their summit on May 21.

Last Friday, South Korea’s Defense Ministry unveiled the plans to resume regiment-level and larger-scale field training exercises between South Korea and the US and re-establish the system to conduct theater-level combined military exercises in its briefing to President Yoon Suk-yeol.

South Korea and the US have also changed the name of combined military exercises from Combined Command Post Training to Freedom Shield, according to the ministry.

Seoul and Washington plan to issue a joint press statement, which will carry the outcomes of advanced discussion on alliance-related issues, the senior official said.

Trilateral security, Ukraine War

Lee and Austin will also touch upon trilateral security cooperation among South Korea, the US and Japan. But the discussion will be largely based on the agreements made at the trilateral defense ministerial meeting held on June 11 in Singapore, according to the senior official.

“The issue of the trilateral security cooperation was discussed in considerable detail at the meeting held on the margins of the Shangri-La Dialogue,” the official said. “Since then, we have continued to develop plans to respond to North Korea’s provocations.”

During the in-person talks, Austin and Lee will also focus on discussing how to support war-torn Ukraine concerning regional and international security issues.

But the senior official said the lethal aid to Ukraine is not an agenda topic for the discussion, elucidating that the US has requested the South Korean government provide non-lethal and humanitarian assistance and support the postwar reconstruction of the war-battered country.

During the trip, Lee also plans to attend the ribbon-cutting ceremony celebrating the completion of the Wall of Remembrance at the National Mall and Memorial Parks in Washington on Wednesday. The day marks the 69th anniversary of the 1953 armistice agreement that ended the Korean War.

The Korean War monument engraves the names of 36,574 American service members and more than 7,200 members of the Korean Augmentation who died during the 1950-1953 Korean War.

Lee will also pay respect to the sacrifice and dedication of Korean War veterans by personally meeting them and the families of the war dead. The defense minister plans to place a wreath of flowers at Arlington National Cemetery in Virginia and visit the Armed Forces Retirement Home in Washington, which provides residence and care services for war veterans.

Additionally, Lee is scheduled to discuss how to develop the South Korea-US alliance and align Indo-Pacific regional strategies in his meetings with former commanders of the United States Forces Korea and researchers at the US major think tanks, the senior official said.

(dagyumji@heraldcorp.com)

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11. Domestic politics presents major stumbling block to Korea-Japan relations

I hate to sound like a broken record. The only way that domestic politics can be mitigated is through direct personal leadership by the President and Prime Minister. They both must commit to making national security and national prosperity the priority for their countries while pledging to manage the historic issues without impacting on prosperity and. security.

Domestic politics presents major stumbling block to Korea-Japan relations

The Korea Times · July 25, 2022

gettyimagesbank

In Korea, Yoon's falling approval rating, opposition-led Assembly are obstacles; in Japan, anti-Korea sentiment, Abe's death complicate bilateral ties

By Kang Hyun-kyung

In Korea-Japan relations, it is commonly said among Korean experts that the ball is in Japan's court. In other words, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida holds the key, particularly following his party's big win in the Upper House elections earlier this month. Thus, it's important how he will respond to President Yoon Suk-yeol's repeated calls to sit down for a summit to discuss ways to repair bilateral relations between the two countries.

However, some experts disagree with this assessment. They claim that, in fact, the ball is in Korea's court, not Japan's. They say that President Yoon's falling approval rating and the National Assembly being dominated by the main opposition party are some of the stumbling blocks to improving Korea-Japan relations.

"As you know, the biggest obstacle that prevents the restoration of Korea-Japan relations is the wartime forced labor issue, as it is just a matter of time until South Korea's Supreme Court upholds the lower court's ruling on the Japanese companies to sell off their assets seized in Korea to compensate the victims or their families," Shin Kak-soo, a former vice foreign minister who later served as Korean ambassador to Japan between 2011 and 2013, told The Korea Times. "If that course of action is not reversed, it is hardly likely for the leaders of the two countries to agree on a summit."

Changing the course of action in Korea regarding the wartime forced labor issue is not something the executive branch of government can do. "But the legislative branch can, and lawmakers can draw up measures to alter the top court's possible order," Shin said.

Since the Supreme Court's 2018 ruling that ordered Japanese company Nippon Steel to compensate the surviving South Korean victims of wartime forced labor, the victims and their families requested that the district court seize the Japanese companies' assets in Korea, which was approved. Another district court ordered Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and Nippon Steel to sell off their assets in Korea to compensate the forced labor victims. The Japanese companies, claiming that all wartime-related issues were resolved in the 1965 treaty that normalized diplomatic relations between the two countries, appealed to the higher court. Korea's Supreme Court has yet to rule on the cases.

Those who are familiar with the case say the ruling may come as early as August. The Supreme Court is highly likely to uphold the lower court's rulings, as overturning the cases would amount to self-negation.

As Shin said, there is still a way to alter the court's forthcoming ruling, and the National Assembly holds the key.

But the Assembly is currently dominated by the main opposition Democratic Party of Korea (DPK), which is unlikely to cooperate with President Yoon and his ruling People Power Party to pass any possible legislation aimed at restoring Korea-Japan relations.

Shin said that President Yoon's falling approval rating is another stumbling block to the restoration of Korea-Japan relations. "An issue like this is not something that President Yoon can push through without the backing of public opinion," he said.

President Yoon Suk-yeol, left, U.S. President Joe Biden, center, and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishia, right, sit for a trilateral summit held on the sidelines of the NATO Summit in Madrid, Spain, June 29. Yonhap

Despite the challenges, Christopher Johnstone, senior adviser and Japan chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C., presented an optimistic view of Korea-Japan relations.

"Resolution of historical issues is politically sensitive and difficult for both, but there is a large practical agenda to pursue and an urgency to pursue it ― cooperation on North Korea, defense cooperation, work on economic issues such as semiconductors and supply chain resilience," he said. "I think they can and will move forward with this agenda, while working on the historical issues."

Since taking office on May 10, President Yoon has been working to restore Korea-Japan relations, which hit their lowest point in recent years during the previous Moon Jae-in government. President Yoon courted Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida during their attendance at the NATO Summit in late June to sit down for bilateral talks. Last week, Foreign Minister Park Jin returned to Seoul after wrapping up his trip to Japan to test the waters for a summit in his meetings with key Japanese officials.

Impact of Abe's death

Domestic politics in Japan have also emerged as a fresh impediment to diplomatic relations.

The assassination of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on July 8 has complicated bilateral relations further. Abe, the country's longest-serving but divisive former leader, was gunned down by a suspect who held a grudge toward the Unification Church, a religious movement that began in Korea in the 1950s, after his mother's "huge donation" to the church bankrupted his family. According to the Unification Church, its members in Japan have received death threats and been exposed to hate crimes following Abe's death.

Yuji Hosaka, a professor of liberal arts at Sejong University in Seoul who is a naturalized Korean citizen, said that there has been more room for improvement of Korea-Japan relations since the passing of Abe.

Inside the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) of Japan, he said, Abe himself was the leader of the biggest faction. "Following his death, there's power struggle going on among Abe faction. Six people are competing to become the leader of the faction but none of them are as influential as Abe. So, the faction said it won't select a successor to Abe," Hosaka said, predicting that it will be inevitable for the Abe faction to be divided and weakened.

"What's happening within the LDP is positive for Prime Minister Kishida and his political mentor, Taro Aso, who is vice president of the party, because Kishida will be more empowered to push for his own agenda," he said.

Contrary to Korean media reports, Hosaka said, Kishida won't prioritize the constitutional amendment to allow Japan to have a military and end its pacifist Constitution.

"Prime Minister Kishida himself is a moderate, and so is his political mentor, Aso. The constitutional reform is not their priority. Kishida considers Japan's public debt a more significant issue that he should focus on, so he will. With the backing of the LDP, he will seek to raise consumption tax from the current 10 percent to 12 percent," he said.

A mourner offers flowers next to a picture of late former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who was shot while campaigning for a parliamentary election, on the day to mark a week after his assassination at the Liberal Democratic Party headquarters, in Tokyo, Japan July 15. Reuters-YonhapWhen asked about the probability of a Korea-Japan summit being held within this year, Hosaka answered positively, saying any tangible outcomes in Korea-Japan bilateral relations will come after Sept. 27, the date when Japan is scheduled to hold a state funeral for Abe. "A state funeral for the former prime minister is rare and controversial as some are opposing, but Kishida decided on that because he still needs support from Abe's supporters," he said.

Johnstone said the two countries will seek joint gains eventually through cooperation, rather than maintaining sour relations.

"There has been positive movement in Korea-Japan relations since President Yoon came into office, and I don't think Prime Minister Abe's assassination will change the trajectory," he said. "Both Tokyo and Seoul recognize that it is in their interest to have stronger ties with each other, and together with the United States."

Hosaka, however, said that there is anti-Korea sentiment among the Japanese public, noting that if it is not resolved properly, it could make it difficult for the Japanese leader to push for measures to mend ties with Korea.

"Moderates gaining power in Japan is a good thing for Korea. But this shouldn't be interpreted as something that can guarantee the restoration of Korea-Japan relations automatically, because there's still anti-Korea sentiment in Japan and some Japanese still harbor doubts toward Korea, with the belief that Koreans are not trustworthy," he said. "The Korean government should come up with measures to make Korea look like a reliable country to Japanese people," he said.

The Korea Times · July 25, 2022

12. China falling, US rising as Korea's export destinations

China falling, US rising as Korea's export destinations

The Korea Times · July 25, 2022

gettyimagesbank By Anna J. Park

Data show that the U.S. is increasing its weight in Korea's annual export volumes, while China has been declining. China's prolonged pandemic lockdowns are attributed as one of the main reasons, yet other complex factors, such as China's advances in manufacturing industries as well as the growing U.S-China trade conflict, are also estimated to have played a part in the trend.

According to data compiled by the Korea International Trade Association (KITA), exports to China accounted for about 23.2 percent of Korea's entire export volume during the first half of this year. The figure is a decrease by 1.9 percentage points from the same period last year. In comparison, the U.S. took up 15.7 percent of Korea's export volume during this year's first half, which is a 0.4 percentage point increase year-on-year.

When looking at last year's numbers, China accounted for 25.3 percent, or $162 billion out of Korea's annual export volume of $644 billion, which is a fall of 0.6 percentage points from 2020. During the same period, the weight of exports to the U.S. stood at 14.9 percent, which was a year-on-year increase of 0.4 percentage points.

The trend is more evident in a longer time frame of three years from 2018 to 2021. China's weight in Korea's annual exports fell to 25.3 percent from 26.8 percent during the three years, while the U.S.' weight rose to 14.9 percent from 12 percent. And this pattern ― China's decreasing proportion in Korea's exports and the increase of U.S.-bound Korean exports ― has become more evident during the first half of this year.

Market watchers say China's full-on lockdowns of major cities, including Shanghai and Beijing, during this year's spring time was an obvious factor that impacted the fall of China-bound Korean exports. But it doesn't explain the whole picture.

KITA's recent report shows China's changed policy direction to reduce high-tech imports, aiming to strengthen domestic manufacturing industries, was part of the key reason behind China's dwindled weight in Korea's exports over the years. In response to its intensified trade conflict with the U.S., China has been strengthening its supply chain linkage with Taiwan. As a result, Taiwan's outbound shipments to China in terms of state-of-the-arts items, such as semiconductors, have increased in recent years.

Because of both factors of Chinese cities' lockdowns and changed policy direction on high-tech imports, Korea's trade with China posted monthly deficits for two consecutive months of May and June. In May, the deficit stood at around $1.1 billion, followed by another $1.2 billion in June. It's the first time in 28 years that Korea recorded a monthly deficit when it comes to bilateral trade with China, and it's expected to log another deficit in July.

Given that Aug. 24 marks the 30th anniversary of Korea-China diplomatic relations, the government hopes to turn the tide again, by browsing various measures for strengthening economic cooperation with China. Foreign Minister Park Jin plans to visit China sometime around next month, while the trade ministry is known to be drawing up measures to recover outbound shipments to China.

"While Korea's export volume during the first half hit an all-time high, exports to China, the country's largest export destination, have slowed," Trade Minister Lee Chang-yang said late last month.

"Commemorating the 30th anniversary of diplomatic ties with China, the government aims to support Korean companies' exports to China through a variety of measures, including strengthening export marketing strategies, intensifying economic cooperative partnerships with the country. The government is also planning to announce comprehensive measure to support exports during the next month."

The Korea Times · July 25, 2022

13. 'Korea's nuclear power industry became 40% less competitive under Moon gov't'

Hopefully the Yoon administration will be able to fix this.

'Korea's nuclear power industry became 40% less competitive under Moon gov't'

The Korea Times · July 25, 2022

President Yoon Suk-yeol visits a nuclear power plant of Doosan Enerbility in Changwon, South Gyeongsang Province, June 22. Korea Times file 

By Lee Kyung-min

The competitive edge of Korea's nuclear power industry has crashed by as much as 40 percent compared to before the "nuclear phase-out policy" took effect under the former Moon Jae-in administration, according to the country's business lobby, Monday.

About four years will be needed to recover the largely destroyed industrial ecosystem, the Federation of Korean Industries (FKI) added. Increasing the number of highly skilled nuclear energy experts should be top priority, as well as deregulation to help businesses find new projects.

A FKI survey of 31 local nuclear energy firms showed over half, or 51.6 percent, of the respondents said the competitive edge of the industry sank by a range of between 30 percent and 40 percent over the past five years. About a fifth, or 22.6 percent, pinpointed the range between 20 percent and 30 percent.

Over a third, or 35.7 percent, cited personnel shortages as the largest concern. Data from the Korea Atomic Industrial Forum showed the number of students that majored in nuclear energy-related departments was 2,165 in 2021, down 22 percent from 2,777 in 2017.

Other concerns included a lack of operating funds (30.4 percent), supply chain disruptions due to bankruptcies of their partner firms (17.9 percent) and inability to secure next-generation growth technologies (12.5 percent).

About half, or 46.9 percent, said businesses finding work will be the key driver to recovering industrial competitiveness.

This was followed by the need to simplify licensing and approval processes involving the construction of nuclear power plants (28.1 percent), lowering borrowing costs and increasing access to financing (17.2 percent). Some 7.8 percent chose extending government assistance to firms with shaky financials.

Over a quarter, or 27.4 percent, said the government should map out long-term programs to nurture the desired skills in students.

A similar number of respondents, or 24.2 percent, said reducing dependence on overseas nuclear technologies and products is needed.

Over 19 percent of the respondents said research and development activities should be incentivized.

Some 16 percent said government policies should help local firms with overseas expansion.

The FKI said Korea should pursue measures promptly to help revitalize the stagnant industry, in a move to seek the best possible outcome from the recent global wave of recognizing nuclear power as a green energy source.

"Promising local firms will be able to find growth opportunities from around the world, lifted by rapid growth of the global nuclear energy industry," a KFI official said. "We need to embrace appropriate measures to better prepare for the rapidly changing global nuclear energy landscape."

The Korea Times · July 25, 2022

14. N.Korea Faces Famine

This really bears watching. There is the potential that this could be worse than the Arduous March of 1994-1996. And there will be no relief valves like there was back then. Relief valves: Kim Dae Jung's Sunshine Policy and the establishment and growth of markets. There can be no bailing out of the regime this time (due to sanctions and of course the Yoon Administration will not do what DJ did in 1997) and since the COVID paradox the regime has done enormous damage to the 400+ markets that were the foundation of resilience for much of the Korean people in the north.

N.Korea Faces Famine

english.chosun.com

North Korea is experiencing a dramatic food shortage, according to witness accounts. The North sealed its border with China again over a surge in coronavirus infections since May, which squeezed the last life out of its devastated economy, and now people starving to death in some parts of the isolated country.

The official Rodong Sinmun daily has referred to the situation as an "emergency," and experts say any natural disaster like a typhoon or floods could tip the shortage over into another famine like the "arduous march" of the 1990s in which millions died of hunger.

North Korea resumed train services to and from China in January, which brought some respite from the catastrophic economic deprivation of the previous two years. The trains brought supplies needed to prepare for nation founder Kim Il-sung's 110th birthday celebration in April. But the spread of the Omicron variant in May prompted the North to close its borders again, causing renewed shortages.

Over the last two years, the impoverished state released emergency food supplies, but they have almost run dry. According to Daily NK, which monitors food prices in the North, the price of 1 kg of rice has risen from 5,000 North Korean won before May to 6,000 won this month.

"Even North Koreans with money are starving because of a lack of food," a source said. North Korea begged China to allow trains to enter from the North, but China is reluctant because of its own draconian zero-COVID policy.

Seasonal factors are also having an effect. Farmers are managing to grow potatoes, but that has not been enough to feed North Koreans until harvest season in late September. Kwon Tae-jin at the GS&J Institute said, "Farming areas for wheat and barley have increased, but output is estimated to have declined this year compared to 2021 because of the summer rains."

Another source said, "There are rumors of people starving to death in some parts of Kangwon Province, Kaesong and Ryanggang Province." One family in Hyesan near the border with China, reportedly starved to death because they contracted COVID-19 and were prevented from getting hold of food.

In the 1990s more than a million North Koreans starved to death after state rations of food dried up. The situation improved when open-air markets started to appear in the 2000s selling edibles and other supplies. Now only residents of Pyongyang and soldiers are receiving food rations, but food has become scarce in the open-air markets on which the rest of the country depends.

One source who lives near the Chinese border said, "Food and other supplies that used to be smuggled into the North have declined so sharply that open-air markets are having trouble staying open."

One head of an aid group supporting North Korea said, "The arduous march has started again." In a recent report, the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization listed North Korea among 44 countries in need of emergency food aid.

Yoo Sung-ok, former director of the Institute for National Security Strategy, said, "To quell possible unrest, the regime has been bolstering control of high-ranking party officials and the people. Increased idolization of Kim Il-sung is another sign of mounting trouble due to the food shortage."

english.chosun.com

15. FDD | Cyber Vulnerabilities in Medical Devices Put Patients at Risk

Excerpts:

Meanwhile, the intra-industry information sharing body, the Health Information Sharing and Analysis Center, has announced its first-ever director of medical device security, Phil Englert, signaling the sector’s prioritization of this issue.

To prioritize cybersecurity for in-use medical devices, public-private collaboration as well as legislation and regulation will need to incentivize manufacturers to upgrade or replace medical devices with inadequate cybersecurity measures. The healthcare sector, however, will also need to grapple with how to safely balance cyber risk with patient health, particularly when evaluating legacy devices in tens of thousands of patients that cannot be retrofitted to adequate cybersecurity standards.

Failing to resolve these post-market challenges appropriately will leave patients and healthcare centers across the country vulnerable to malicious cyber actors.

FDD | Cyber Vulnerabilities in Medical Devices Put Patients at Risk

Annie Fixler

CCTI Deputy Director and Research Fellow

Erik Thomas

Intern

fdd.org · by Annie Fixler CCTI Deputy Director and Research Fellow · July 22, 2022

The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) closed the public comment period earlier this month on draft cybersecurity guidance for new medical devices after receiving more than a thousand comments from patients, device manufacturers, and other healthcare sector stakeholders. Aimed at manufacturers seeking FDA approval for new devices, this guidance fails to address the bigger challenge the FDA has identified: securing devices already in use, including those already inside patients.

The FDA released its draft guidance in April. The new guidance updated a 2018 FDA draft addressing how medical device manufacturers should incorporate cybersecurity into the design, operation, and maintenance of a device throughout its lifecycle prior to submitting the product for FDA approval. Suzanne Schwartz, director of the FDA’s Office of Strategic Partnerships and Technology Innovation, noted, “The intent is to enable devices to be that much more resilient to withstand the potential for cyber exploits or intrusion.”

The new draft guidance includes a welcome requirement that manufacturers supply a Software Bill of Materials (SBOM) with all new products. SBOMs provide needed transparency enabling end users, including patients and hospitals, to quickly identify if their products contain vulnerabilities that hackers might exploit to compromise the proper functioning of life-sustaining devices. Bipartisan legislation pending in Congress would mandate this requirement, and others, for new devices.

While the draft guidance signals the FDA’s continued commitment to promoting better cybersecurity, it does not address the issue of “legacy outdated software that is difficult to keep secure” — one of the greatest long-term cybersecurity risks, according to the FDA’s Kevin Fu, who served for one year as its acting director of medical device cybersecurity. White-hat hackers have consistently found vulnerabilities in medical devices such as pacemakers and insulin pumps that are already on the market today.

Although the FDA has issued warnings about some of these vulnerabilities, it has not updated its guidance for post-market cybersecurity since 2016, well before ransomware actors began targeting healthcare systems. Another piece of bipartisan legislation pending in the Senate would require the FDA to update annually its publicly available information about medical device cybersecurity.

While Schwartz said the FDA has no plans to update the 2016 guidelines, the agency appears poised to address legacy challenges. The FDA’s fiscal year 2023 budget request proposes a 1,000 percent budget increase for medical device security, from $500,000 to $5.5 million — which includes funding for six new staff. Jeffrey Shuren, director at the FDA’s Center for Devices and Radiological Health, testified before the Senate that the FDA also wants additional “authorities to ensure that these devices are cyber safe.”

Meanwhile, the intra-industry information sharing body, the Health Information Sharing and Analysis Center, has announced its first-ever director of medical device security, Phil Englert, signaling the sector’s prioritization of this issue.

To prioritize cybersecurity for in-use medical devices, public-private collaboration as well as legislation and regulation will need to incentivize manufacturers to upgrade or replace medical devices with inadequate cybersecurity measures. The healthcare sector, however, will also need to grapple with how to safely balance cyber risk with patient health, particularly when evaluating legacy devices in tens of thousands of patients that cannot be retrofitted to adequate cybersecurity standards.

Failing to resolve these post-market challenges appropriately will leave patients and healthcare centers across the country vulnerable to malicious cyber actors.

Annie Fixler is a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) and deputy director of FDD’s Center on Cyber and Technology Innovation (CCTI), where Erik Thomas is an intern. For more analysis from the authors and CCTI, please subscribe HERE. Follow Annie on Twitter @afixler. Follow FDD on Twitter @FDD and @FDD_CCTI. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

fdd.org · by Annie Fixler CCTI Deputy Director and Research Fellow · July 22, 2022

16. Korea to Sell 48 Fighter Jets to Poland

Excerpts:

Last year Korea's arms exports hit a record US$7 billion. According to the Export-Import Bank of Korea, Korea's weapons exports increased by a whopping 176.8 percent over the last five years.

The country's share in the global weapons market rose from a paltry one percent during 2012-2016 to 2.8 percent in 2017-2021, making it the world's eighth largest arms exporter. The U.S. topped the list, followed by Russia, France, China, Germany, Italy and the U.K.

Korea to Sell 48 Fighter Jets to Poland

english.chosun.com

July 25, 2022 11:08

Korea expects to sign a W3.8 trillion deal to sell 48 FA-50 light combat fighter jets to Poland this week (US$1=W1,313). The improved version of the jet made its debut at the Farnborough International Airshow in the U.K. last week.

This will be the first export of a Korean military aircraft to Europe.

Korea Aerospace Industries said the improved FA-50 "fully meets operational demands of members of NATO and the EU."

The FA-50, a variant of KAI's T-50 supersonic trainer jet, is a light combat fighter armed with munitions and missiles. The improved version designed for export can also carry a midair refueling system, precision-guided munitions and infrared-guided air-to-air missiles. It will eventually be equipped with an AESA radar that is still in development here.

"The FA-50 is a multipurpose fighter jet that has a competitive edge in cost and functions. It also can be upgraded with our own technology," said Shin Jong-woo of the Korea Defense and Security Forum. "Once we roll out another improved version with an AESA radar, it will be the world's top fighter jet of its kind."

A replica of Korea's FA-50 light combat fighter jet is displayed at the Farnborough International Airshow in the U.K. last week. /Courtesy of the Korea Defence and Security Forum

The new deal brings Korea's arms exports to Poland to W25 trillion in total. Poland is frantically arming itself for fear of suffering the same fate as Ukraine.

Poland is also buying around 1,000 K2 tanks from Hyundai Rotem worth about W17 trillion, while Hanwha Defense expects to ship about 670 K9 self-propelled guns worth some W4 trillion to the country.

Last year Korea's arms exports hit a record US$7 billion. According to the Export-Import Bank of Korea, Korea's weapons exports increased by a whopping 176.8 percent over the last five years.

The country's share in the global weapons market rose from a paltry one percent during 2012-2016 to 2.8 percent in 2017-2021, making it the world's eighth largest arms exporter. The U.S. topped the list, followed by Russia, France, China, Germany, Italy and the U.K.

• Copyright © Chosunilbo & Chosun.com

english.chosun.com

17. N. Korea lengthens period "party life records" for military cadres are stored

More party control. It is all that Kim has.

"Ideological tendencies."

Excerpts:

According to a Daily NK source in the North Korean military on Thursday, the organization department of the General Political Bureau issued an order to this effect to the entire North Korean military early this month.

“Party life records” document the organizational lives and ideological tendencies of party members and leading commanders in the North Korean military. The “party life guidance section” of each military branch’s organizational department manages the documents.

N. Korea lengthens period "party life records" for military cadres are stored - Daily NK

“It provides a glimpse of efforts aimed at raising the sense of responsibility of leading commanders and strengthening party control across the entire Korean People’s Army,” a source told Daily NK

By Jeong Tae Joo - 2022.07.25 3:00pm

dailynk.com · by Jeong Tae Joo · July 25, 2022

Ri Pyong Chul stands to the right of Kim Jong Un during North Korea's military parade on April 25, 2022. (Rodong Sinmun - News1)

As part of efforts to strengthen party control over the military, North Korea recently ordered for “party life records” of all cadres in the North Korea military to be stored for 30 years. Previously, the records had only been stored for 10 years.

According to a Daily NK source in the North Korean military on Thursday, the organization department of the General Political Bureau issued an order to this effect to the entire North Korean military early this month.

“Party life records” document the organizational lives and ideological tendencies of party members and leading commanders in the North Korean military. The “party life guidance section” of each military branch’s organizational department manages the documents.

The source said that the military authorities explained that the recent order is part of efforts to encourage military officials to adhere to principles related to party life and guidance. These principles were presented during special lectures for party life guidance officials affiliated with party committee organizational departments from July 2 to July 6.

The lectures called for establishing “discipline of absolute obedience to the Central Committee’s unitary leadership” with a view to strengthen discipline among the military’s leading cadres, which has grown slack due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

The source said that the organizational department of the General Political Bureau made it clear that it issued the order to the military to more firmly establish the Central Committee’s unitary military leadership system and prepare the military as “Comrade Kim Jong Un’s military, the party’s military,” paying absolute obedience to the Central Committee’s orders.

Basically, this is all part of efforts to build the infrastructure to maintain the so-called “unitary leadership system.” Such efforts are aimed at making a database of data on the general ideological tendencies of everyone from the lowest unit to the high-ranking cadres to keep an eye on ideological changes and closely guard against people falling by the wayside ideologically.

The source said the decision to lengthen the storage term of party life records to 30 years shows just how deeply the party plans to look into the ideological tendencies of military personnel.

“It provides a glimpse of efforts aimed exerting more control over top commanders and strengthening party control across the entire Korean People’s Army,” he said.

Military authorities also issued an order to bolster the function and role of the military’s “party life guidance sections.” They also called on the political committees and heads of the political departments of units at all levels to take the lead in establishing unified party life guidance principles and a system of regulations, reviews and reports.

The source said work on this began from last November, with the military planning to operate a system of party life and ideological control in accordance with changed regulations starting this August.

Please direct any comments or questions about this article to dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.

Read in Korean

dailynk.com · by Jeong Tae Joo · July 25, 2022

18. Pathos of Peace Protest in South Korea Arises From Its Naivete

Excerpts:

In fact, however, the real forces behind the protest were far-left groups playing into the hands of the North Koreans, whose demands they echo and support politically. These organizations nurture ties with pro-North groups in America that have focused on lobbying Congress to enact legislation for “ending” the war.

One of the major points of the protest was opposition to joint military exercises, which these people say is responsible for keeping Korea on a war footing. North Korea has been propounding this line with increasing fierceness as American and South Korean troops plan for their first real war games, on the ground, in the air, and at sea, since President Trump, in one of the dumbest moves of his presidency, canceled them after his summit in Singapore with Mr. Kim in June 2018.

The deputy director of a think tank run by North Korea’s foreign ministry, Choe Jin, in an interview with Associated Press TV News in Pyongyang, warned of “unprecedented instability” as a result of the exercises. Washington’s “anachronistic and suicidal policy of hostility,” he said ominously, would have “an undesirable consequence.”

That’s exactly the rhetoric that we were hearing at the protest. Most of those who were there were blissfully unaware they were playing into the North Korean line.

The protesters sugar-coated what they were saying, declaring, in one leaflet published in English, that the Korean peninsula was “a symbol of confrontation and conflict.” The message: “Let’s end the Korean War now with our own hands and make a future that could not be achieved for the last 70 years.”

A nice sentiment indeed — except these people have no idea they’re being misled into saying exactly what Kim Jong-un wants to hear. Meanwhile the North is building ever more missiles and nukes for the express purpose of destroying the South Korean democracy that gives these protesters the right to demonstrate freely on North Korea’s behalf. 

Pathos of Peace Protest in South Korea Arises From Its Naivete

https://www.nysun.com/article/pathos-of-peace-protest-in-south-korea-arises-from-its-naivete

North Korea wants the end of the war to be declared before it’s over.

The North Korean leader, Kim Jong Un, April 25, 2022. Korean Central News Agency/Korea News Service via AP

DONALD KIRK

Monday, July 25, 2022

07:08:36 am

IMJINGAK, South Korea — The shattered hulk of a steam locomotive that was caught in an artillery barrage rests on rusting tracks here in mute testimony to the battles that raged south of the 38th parallel dividing North Korea from South Korea after the communist invasion of the South in June 1950.

For about 2,000 people at a protest rally a hundred yards away, the horrors of the invasion were forgotten last weekend amid shouts of “End the Korean war,” including a halt to American and UN sanctions against North Korea and to war games by American and South Korean troops.

The protesters timed their rally to precede the 69^th anniversary Wednesday of the signing of the truce that ended the fighting on July 27, 1953. They’re part of a global movement that insists the war isn’t over until the Americans, the North Koreans, and the Chinese Communists, whose forces rescued the North from total defeat, have signed a peace treaty under which Washington would withdraw its 28,500 troops and give up its alliance with South Korea.

The pathos of the protest, which I attended, was that it was so futile, so naïve, so uninformed and misleading. The protesters, asking people to sign an “End of Korean War” petition, said not a word about North Korea’s nuclear program or the missiles built to carry warheads to targets anywhere from South Korea and Japan to the American mainland.

“Create a Korean peninsula and a world free from nuclear weapons and nuclear threat,” a leaflet handed out at the rally said. “Resolve the conflict with dialogue and cooperation instead of sanctions and pressure.”

Left unmentioned was that Kim Jong-un has ignored requests for dialogue. Nobody believed the warning of the conservative South Korean president, Yoon Suk-yeol, talking in Seoul, 40 miles south of here, that the North is “fully ready and able” to conduct its seventh nuclear test.

One of the more moderate people whom I met acknowledged that Mr. Kim had never responded to pleas to consider a “non-aggression agreement” and certainly had shown no signs of giving up his nuclear program, so far including six nuclear and multiple missile tests. “That’s a problem,” she said, expressing confidence that he would opt for peace once the Americans had pulled out.

The protest was all the more saddening considering that Mr. Kim’s primary concern in deciding when to order another nuclear test is not peace but the impact of the Covid pandemic on the poverty-stricken North Korean economy.

If he’s not too worried about the suffering of millions of impoverished, hungry citizens, he still has to consider his inner circle, including his younger sister, Kim Yo-jong. He controls those around him with an iron fist, but he has to be attuned to their needs to be sure of unswerving loyalty.

The protest here was organized by several hundred peace-oriented groups, some of which are quite moderate. Superficially, the mood was exuberant, entertaining, and fun. Singer Lee Eun-mee, a local celebrity and fervent advocate of the peace movement, sang three songs on the theme of peace to immense applause. Many of the young people joined in dancing and clapping hands.

None of them believed that South Korea, freed from ties to Washington, would be exposed to North Korean attack backed by China, which fought to insure the survival of the Communist dynasty in Pyongyang in the Korean War. None imagined the Russians would also support the North Koreans just as the Soviet Union had provided air support and vital military supplies during that dreadful conflict that cost at least four million lives, the majority civilians.

In fact, however, the real forces behind the protest were far-left groups playing into the hands of the North Koreans, whose demands they echo and support politically. These organizations nurture ties with pro-North groups in America that have focused on lobbying Congress to enact legislation for “ending” the war.

One of the major points of the protest was opposition to joint military exercises, which these people say is responsible for keeping Korea on a war footing. North Korea has been propounding this line with increasing fierceness as American and South Korean troops plan for their first real war games, on the ground, in the air, and at sea, since President Trump, in one of the dumbest moves of his presidency, canceled them after his summit in Singapore with Mr. Kim in June 2018.

The deputy director of a think tank run by North Korea’s foreign ministry, Choe Jin, in an interview with Associated Press TV News in Pyongyang, warned of “unprecedented instability” as a result of the exercises. Washington’s “anachronistic and suicidal policy of hostility,” he said ominously, would have “an undesirable consequence.”

That’s exactly the rhetoric that we were hearing at the protest. Most of those who were there were blissfully unaware they were playing into the North Korean line.

The protesters sugar-coated what they were saying, declaring, in one leaflet published in English, that the Korean peninsula was “a symbol of confrontation and conflict.” The message: “Let’s end the Korean War now with our own hands and make a future that could not be achieved for the last 70 years.”

A nice sentiment indeed — except these people have no idea they’re being misled into saying exactly what Kim Jong-un wants to hear. Meanwhile the North is building ever more missiles and nukes for the express purpose of destroying the South Korean democracy that gives these protesters the right to demonstrate freely on North Korea’s behalf. 

DONALD KIRK

Mr. Kirk, based in Seoul and Washington, has been covering Asia for decades for newspapers and magazines and is the author of books on Korea, the Vietnam War and the Philippines.

19. The pros and cons of a nuclear South Korea

I am afraid it is coming: A nuclear South Korea.

I was given this argument/rationale in Korea last week from a former Korean official:

Moreover, Article 10 of the treaty would allow South Korea to exit the NPT in good faith.

“Acquiring nuclear weapons is not a violation of international law – only for those countries who are members of the NPT,” said Daryl Press, an associate professor at Dartmouth College. “South Korea could do it in a legal fashion by exercising its Article 10 legal rights to withdraw…there is no need to be a pariah.”

For a South Korean diplomat, explaining the necessity of the step would be “an easy day on the job,” Press suggested.

In fact, signaling an NPT withdrawal could be a legitimate step on Seoul’s response ladder, Lee proposed. “If [North Korea] conducts a seventh nuclear test, the least we can do is withdraw from the NPT,” he said. “That would put a lot of pressure on the international community to do more.”

The pros and cons of a nuclear South Korea

Polls show South Koreans strongly support having a nuclear deterrent but the risk of irking the US and China still weighs against the move

asiatimes.com · by Andrew Salmon · July 25, 2022

SEOUL – Few nations look as vulnerable to nuclear strikes as South Korea.

The country lies directly south of fierce rival North Korea, which has been nuclear-capable since 2006. Since 2021, Pyongyang has been expanding its existing long-range strategic deterrent – which most believe is aimed at the US – by developing shorter-range tactical capabilities.

Off-peninsula developments are equally sobering. Russia has successfully ring-fenced its February invasion of Ukraine by threatening nuclear use against any nation that dares to cross its red lines. As a result, while Kiev receives moral, financial and arms support from Western partners, it stands alone on the battlefield.

South Korea, unlike Ukraine, has a national insurance policy: The US is treaty-bound to defend it. However, there is the question of US resolution; the credibility of that insurance is untested in the face of real-world nuclear aggression.

Some fret that – if push came to shove – Washington would be unwilling to risk losing one or more of its cities to a North Korean reprisal, leaving South Korea exposed to potential perdition. Against this fraught backdrop, a simmering issue is now heating up again: The possibility of South Korea joining the nuclear club by developing a home-grown deterrent.

One of the highest-profile proponents of that possibility put a stark question to Asia Times on the sidelines of a recent conference. “How can we sleep at night?” asked political heavyweight and Hyundai Heavy chairman Chung Mong-joon.

Currently, institutes are churning out research showing that the public overwhelmingly supports the national acquisition of nuclear arms. It is increasingly a hot topic at conferences and in media.

But with the Yoon Suk-yeol administration cleaving tightly to a US that is still strongly attached to nuclear non-proliferation, there is no tangible momentum. And any South Korean leader who decided to go critical would need to first answer the multiple questions that hang over the issue.

Politically: What sanctions might South Korea face and how would the development affect Seoul’s security relationship with its key ally the US? Moreover, how might China and Japan react?

Technically: Is South Korea capable of creating both nuclear arms and their delivery systems? And if it built a nuclear weapon, where would it test it?

Intercontinental ballistic missiles at a military parade celebrating the 70th founding anniversary of the Korean People’s Army in Pyongyang. North Korea’s nuclear arsenal is a key – but not the only – issue prodding South Korea to follow suit. Photo: KCNA via Reuters

The case for going nuclear

That the Korean public is in favor of a domestic nuclear deterrent is clear.

A Chicago Council on Foreign Relations poll in February found that 71% of Koreans favored developing a domestic nuclear deterrent. A May poll conducted by the Asan Institute for Policy Studies found that 70.2% were in favor – with 63.6% favoring an independent nuclear deterrent even if led to sanctions.

The matter was in the open at this month’s Asian Leadership Conference 2022 in Seoul, with a dedicated discussion panel.

“People are talking about this now,” said panelist Robert Kelly, an American professor of political science at Pusan National University. “It is more blunt and open than ever before.”

A key reason to proceed would be to directly deter North Korea, which has defied all efforts by all parties to halt its nuclear arms programs.

“Despite decades of efforts to denuclearize North Korea, we are faced with what looks like an imminent seventh nuclear test…and that may not be the end of it,” said Lee Jung-hoon, a professor of international relations at Seoul’s Yonsei University who moderated the ALC discussion.

“So that begs the question: ‘If North Korea does go ahead, what are we to do? More condemnation, more UNSC resolutions, more sanctions?” Lee continued. “That has not worked for two decades.”

America is strongly attached to the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty, or NPT, raising worries that Washington would crack down if Seoul decided to go nuclear. But other power players would not be likely to sanction Seoul beyond lip service.

“I see no appetite in the EU to sanction South Korea for going nuclear, and the same with Japan and Taiwan,” Ramon Pacheo Pardo, a professor of international relations at Kings College London told Asia Times. “I don’t see the EU doing anything other than official condemnation.”

Moreover, Article 10 of the treaty would allow South Korea to exit the NPT in good faith.

“Acquiring nuclear weapons is not a violation of international law – only for those countries who are members of the NPT,” said Daryl Press, an associate professor at Dartmouth College. “South Korea could do it in a legal fashion by exercising its Article 10 legal rights to withdraw…there is no need to be a pariah.”

For a South Korean diplomat, explaining the necessity of the step would be “an easy day on the job,” Press suggested.

In fact, signaling an NPT withdrawal could be a legitimate step on Seoul’s response ladder, Lee proposed. “If [North Korea] conducts a seventh nuclear test, the least we can do is withdraw from the NPT,” he said. “That would put a lot of pressure on the international community to do more.”

Experts are divided regarding how much or little pressure Beijing has exerted over the years on Pyongyang to denuclearize and how much leverage it realistically possesses. But any proposed Seoul withdrawal from the NPT – and the additional possibility that Tokyo would follow that lead and tip over the nuclear threshold – would certainly trigger alarm bells in Beijing.

“China will strongly oppose this step,” Press said. “But the South Korean position is eminently reasonable: South Korea should hold open other options and say, ‘If there is some way the international community, perhaps led by China, to get North Korea to denuclearize, we would happily rejoin the NPT.’”

He added, “I would not phrase this as a threat to the Chinese, but a reach out of the hand.”

Others say that not even Beijing – a key source of fuel, food and medicine for North Korea – can reign in Pyongyang.

“North Korea has already demonstrated that they don’t give a damn about the US, the UN and China,” Chun In-bum, a retired South Korean general told Asia Times. “The North Koreans will eat each other before they give up nuclear weapons.”

A key argument for Seoul’s nuking up is the possibility of the US backing down if faced with a truly locked-and-loaded North Korea.

“The core issue is that North can strike US with an ICBM and in doing so you introduce the classic dilemma: [French President Charles] De Gaulle asked [US President John] Kennedy if he would exchange New York for Paris,” Kelly said of the 1961 discussion between the two leaders. “Kennedy waffled. I think the answer is probably ‘no.’” I don’t believe the US would fight a nuke war solely for non-Americans.”

In this sense, South Korean nuclearization would not just aim a close-to-home deterrent at North Korea but could also lower risks for the US. And the nuclearization of US allies France and UK during the Cold War provides a European benchmark that could be applied to Asian allies South Korea and Japan, Kelly said – warning the US not to act in “hegemonic” fashion.

America’s public, he guessed, would be supportive. “My sense is that the issue of North Korea is so obvious it will move US public opinion, and the US foreign policy community will come around,” he said.

Policy cleavages between Seoul and Washington provide another rationale for independent nukes, Press said. The rise of China and the “wedge” being driven “between South Korean and US priorities” is not yet “catastrophic” but is a “growing strain,” the American scholar said.

Rising fears are also hovering over not American strengths but rather its weaknesses.

In war, Washington is acutely casualty-sensitive and in recent conflicts has arguably lacked the political will to win. Moreover, US society and politics are deeply – some say dangerously – polarized. These chinks in America’s armor may be leveraged by a wily foe.

“Korea needs a very stable US, but right now the US is trying to find itself or to be reborn,” Chun said. “As they do this, enemies will see an opportunity.”

Cheong Seong-chang, who directs the Center for North Korean Studies at the Sejong Institute think tank, argued that the nuclearization of South Korea and/or Japan would rebalance Northeast Asia’s tilted strategic geography.

“There is tilted ground that will be more and more tilted…Russia, China and North Korea all have nuclear weapons,” he told the ALC. Conversely, among Japan, South Korea and the US, only the latter possesses a nuclear deterrent.

Chun agreed. “The US faces such a variety of challenges now,” he said. “It is only natural that Korea should have the ability to help the US in whatever situation.”

So could South Korea pull it off?

President Yoon Suk-yeol gives a speech at the construction site of a nuclear power plant. Yoon is upping atomic power production, but has made any move on nuclear arms. Image: Twitter

Nuclear feasibility

There is no question about the “what” of the issue. South Korea, a highly-educated G10 economy that is home to a competitive nuclear power sector that exports reactors, could independently create atomic arms.

One method of producing the core of a nuclear weapon is by reprocessing plutonium fuel rods. Using spent fuel from the Wolseong nuclear plant, “We can create 4,000 nuclear weapon units,” Cheong said.

While Cheong did not specify kilotonnage, that would be a massive armory: World leader Russia is believed to field fewer than 6,000 nuclear warheads. The six-reactor Wolseong, in the country’s southeast, started operations in 1983.

It is not just plutonium South Korea could leverage. “Korea also has uranium enrichment technologies held by only a handful of countries in the world,” Cheong said.

In 2000, the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute tested laser enrichment technology, according to a 2016 article in the Chosun Ilbo, that was reproduced by the Non-Proliferation Policy Education Center. Using that, 1 kilogram of highly enriched U-235 could be produced in around four hours. The article also reported that the country already produces the kind of industrial alloys needed to encase fissile materials.

The question then is “when” – how long would the process take if the political will was mustered? Experts differ on the question.

The 2016 article estimated it would take six months to produce fissile materials and six-nine months to develop a detonation device – an overall timeline of approximately 18 months.

Others believe it could be done more quickly. In a widely quoted comment, Suh Kune-yull, a professor of nuclear engineering at the elite Seoul National University told the New York Times in 2017, “If we decide to stand on our own feet and put our resources together, we can build nuclear weapons in six months…the question is whether the president has the political will.”

A more recent June 2022 commentary in the military website War on the Rocks by Lami Kim, who directs the Asian Studies Program at the US Army War College, found, “Although South Korea has advanced nuclear technologies…Seoul would still need three to five years to acquire a workable nuclear arsenal.”

It was unclear if Kim was discussing device production or a full nose-to-tail system. The latter would include the development of nuclear doctrine and leadership protocols; the creation of a dedicated command-and-control net; and the marriage of the device with delivery systems.

Addressing a full program scenario, Cheong was more optimistic. “If we pursued it at very high speed, we could have fully usable and deployable weapons within two years,” he said. “At slow speed, three years would be enough.”

In terms of delivery systems, South Korea looks to be good to go. Given that North Korea borders the country, tactical nuclear devices could be fired via tube or rocket artillery. But Seoul has ex-peninsular reach, too.

The country has successfully tested submarine-launched ballistic missiles. More recently, the successful June launch of the Nuri space rocket proved that the country is de facto intermediate-range ballistic missile-capable, given the dual use of booster technologies.

There is one hole in this otherwise impressive armory of capabilities. To be a credible deterrent, any nuclear device must be physically tested. So where could South Korea potentially conduct one?

North Korea has tested devices in underground tunnels in a remote, mountainous area. That is near-impossible for South Korea for reasons of population densities and politics.

The South has nearly double the population of its northern rival – 52 million versus the North’s 26 million – all compressed into a smaller land area – 100,210 square kilometers versus the North’s 120,540 square kilometers.

And authoritarian Pyongyang does not have to consider popular push back against its policies, while democratic Seoul must contend with street politics and NIMBYism related to defense, energy and other issues.

In recent years, there have been high-profile protests against a naval base on Jeju Island, nuclear reactors and the placement of a US anti-missile battery.

Still, Cheong hinted – tantalizingly – that the issue has been discussed.

“Where a nuclear test would be done is a very sensitive question – there are few candidate [locations] where tests are possible,” he said. “If this was tabled, the residents would protest, so I cannot disclose.”

One possibility could be a Bikini Atoll-style seafloor test off of one of the uninhabited islands that ring South Korea’s coast.

It has long been rumored – but never proven – that Imperial Japan test-detonated a nuclear device on an island off the coast of northeastern Korea in the waning days of World War II.

South Korea’s Nuri space rocket blasts into the sky. The boosters sending this peaceful projectile into the heavens could feasibly be converted to an intermediate-range ballistic missile. Photo: South Korean Ministry of Science and ICT

The case against

Despite energetic discussion in specialist circles, the acquisition of a nuclear deterrent is currently not on the national political agenda.

One reason – counter-intuitively – is that it has customarily been liberal Seoul governments that have pursued independent defense capabilities.

The process of moving wartime operational control (“OPCON Transfer”) of the South Korean military from Washington’s grip to Seoul’s was initiated by the leftist Roh Moo-hyun government that was in office from 2003-2008.

Subsequently, the Moon Jae-in administration (2017-2022) oversaw the lifting of US-set range caps on South Korean missiles and tested submarine-launched ballistic missiles. It also tabled the acquisition of an aircraft carrier, while pressing ahead with (still incomplete) OPCON transfer.

The latter program is costing the Korean taxpayer billions – and adding a nuclear capability would add to the burden.

“An indigenous nuclear program would consume and divert enormous funding from South Korea’s defense budget,” Bruce Klinger, senior fellow for Northeast Asia at US think tank The Heritage Foundation told Asia Times. “South Korea’s defense funding would be better spent augmenting conventional force requirements as stipulated in South Korea’s Defense Reform Plan 2.0 and the bilateral plan” for OPCON transfer.

Conservative administrations, such as Yoon’s, have historically been unadventurous on defense, preferring to place maximum trust in the US. Hence, Seoul is not courting Washington’s displeasure by initiating a nuclear deterrent.

“The Yoon administration, like its predecessors, has declared it will not pursue an indigenous nuclear weapons program,” Klinger said.

This ambiance is reflected in the caution some feel. “We would lose more than we gain,” a person familiar with the topic told Asia Times.

It is sensitive: The moderator of the ALC discussion, Lee, noted that the topic was “…politically controversial and, perhaps, not politically correct.”

Doubly so given that movement on the issue could so alarm Washington that it could spark the risk that has stalked South Korean politics since the Donald Trump administration: A withdrawal of US troops.

“An attempt by Seoul to keep a major military capability separate from the combined and integrated command structure would be antithetical to the foundation of the bilateral alliance as well as long-standing US counter-proliferation policy,” Klinger warned.

“Such a step could lead to calls for reduction or withdrawal of US forces either due to concerns of possible independent South Korean actions or isolationist perceptions that Seoul could now go it alone.”

Kim wrote for War on the Rocks that if an irked US withdrew support, South Korea would be acutely vulnerable during the time it took to craft its deterrent.

A further risk is likely sanctions damage – such as the heavy hit Korea Inc suffered from Chinese retaliation after Seoul established a US THAAD anti-missile system on South Korean soil in 2017.

And there is another issue – one that lurks deep below the surface.

“Advocacy for developing an indigenous South Korean nuclear capability seems grounded more on national prestige rather than strategic considerations,” Klinger said.

Pollsters admit it. “Public attitudes on nuclear weapons do not strongly align with rationales for armament offered by some South Korean politicians and analysts,” the Chicago Council conceded.

The council found that acquisition of home-grown nuclear muscle in the Korean public mind is not aimed exclusively at North Korea.

“Threats other than North Korea” are a “main driver of support” the Chicago Council found – with 55% of respondents saying China will be the biggest threat to South Korea in ten years.

Meanwhile, 26% of South Koreans considered national prestige as the key reason for their support for nuclear arms, higher than those who see the aim being to counter North Korea, who came in at just 23%.

These findings may reflect deep-seated public emotion.

A 1993 South Korean novel, “The Rose of Sharon is Blooming Again” – the reference is to the national flower – became a best-seller and was turned into a movie in 1995. It depicts North and South Korea joint-developing nuclear arms to take on national bete noire, Japan.

Be that as it may, Chun puts forward a final rationale for going nuclear.

“It’s a volatile world with multiple challenges and we need multiple capabilities and flexibilities,” he said. “There is so much we can prepare for.”

Follow this writer on Twitter @ASalmonSeoul

asiatimes.com · by Andrew Salmon · July 25, 2022

20. South Koreans offer Aussies new subs in 7 years to close Collins gap

Conclusion:

But despite the enthusiastic pitch, the consensus of three Koreans and two Australians involved with defense procurement at the dinner was that before Australia accepts any bids from South Korea, Australia must decide if there is a capability gap, how long it will be and whether, most importantly, Australia can afford to build and support a nuclear submarine enterprise at the same time.

South Koreans offer Aussies new subs in 7 years to close Collins gap - Breaking Defense

As conversations at the Thursday dinner with the Korean ambassador, Jeong-sik Kang, and several senior Korean defense officials made crystal clear, any one defense program is less important to the Koreans than is building a broader and deeper defense relationship with Australia.

breakingdefense.com · by Colin Clark · July 25, 2022

HMAS Rankin conducts helicopter transfers in Cockburn Sound, Western Australia. (Ministry of Defense)

CANBERRA: At a large dinner here attended by its ambassador and a host of senior acquisition officials, South Korea made clear its eagerness to deepen defense ties with Australia, making the bold offer of building advanced conventional attack submarines in “seven years from signature to delivery.”

The reason South Korea is making this play is simple: Australia may face a capability gap if its Collins class submarines can’t operate until the first Australia-made nuclear attack submarines deploy. The Collins are now expected to sail safely until 2030 or so, but few experts believe Australia can get its first nuclear-powered attack boat into the water until closer to 2040. The Albanese government plans to announce by March whether Australia will use US or British nuclear sub designs as the centerpiece of the AUKUS agreement, and when these would hit the water.

The first KSS-III Jangbogo Class Korean Attack conventionally powered attack submarine Credit: DSME

It’s reasonable to expect that the government will also decide by then whether Australia will need an interim capability.

South Korea is already deep into a campaign here to win the first contract for as many as 450 Redback Infantry Fighting Vehicles for the Australian Army. South Korean defense giant Hanwha is widely viewed as having the best chance to win the big contract instead of Germany’s Rheinmetal. In addition, Hanwha Defense Australia plans to manufacture 30 self-propelled howitzers and 15 armored ammunition resupply vehicles at the Avalon Airport in Victoria, Australia, where the biennial air show is held, in a new 32,000 square meter center. The company netted the $1 billion AUD ($700 million US) in December and started work on the new facility earlier this year.

But, as conversations at the Thursday dinner with the Korean ambassador, Jeong-sik Kang, and several senior Korean defense officials made crystal clear, each program in and of itself is less important to the Koreans than building a broader and deeper defense relationship with Australia.

They came armed with glossy brochures, big submarine tie clips, much of the embassy’s defense staff and a host of Korean company officials. Over three-and-a-half hours, nine speakers discussed the Redback offer, last week’s first flight of the supersonic and sort of fifth-generation KF-21 fighter, the sub, a Low Earth Orbit national communications system, and even passenger trains that Korea is selling Australia.

To receive the Korean officials were more an estimated 20 Australian defense officials; William Paterson, a former Australian ambassador to Korea; and, for effect, several defense journalists. Before sitting down to dinner, a Korean civilian defense official was eager to show Breaking Defense a table with two models of Korea’s proposed KSS-III, billed as the world’s largest and quietest conventionally powered attack submarine, as well as the first Air Independent Propulsion-powered sub that can handle SLBMs, or submarine-launched ballistic missiles.

The Koreans were almost ebullient in their presentation during the dinner, referring to the large lithium battery that powers the AIP system. The 3,700 ton boat’s cruise range grows because of the combination of the advanced diesel engines used for long-distance cruising and AIP, as illustrated in the chart below. The Koreans also said the sub boasts comfortable quarters in a deliberate attempt to boost crew morale and effectiveness. That could be a selling point for Australia, which has had issues attracting enough submariners to man their boats at times, so this may be aimed at allaying those concerns.

A slide from the South Korean presentation. (Credit Colin Clark/Breaking Defense)

But despite the enthusiastic pitch, the consensus of three Koreans and two Australians involved with defense procurement at the dinner was that before Australia accepts any bids from South Korea, Australia must decide if there is a capability gap, how long it will be and whether, most importantly, Australia can afford to build and support a nuclear submarine enterprise at the same time.

breakingdefense.com · by Colin Clark · July 25, 2022

​21. How Koreans fell in love with an American World War II era personality test

And now for something completely different and not expected.

How Koreans fell in love with an American World War II era personality test

CNN · by Jessie Yeung and Yoonjung Seo, CNN

Seoul, South Korea (CNN)It's as if Seoul is infatuated. Stroll through the South Korean capital and amid the sea of traditional Hangul characters it's hard not to notice the same four letters of the Latin alphabet cropping up again and again: MBTI.

Those four letters are emblazoned on ads, peppered into daily conversation, featured in computer games and even on Spotify playlists. Stop by a cafe and you may hear couples on their first date discussing them; visit a fortune-teller and they may be invoked as portents of your future; open a dating app and about a third of profiles will include them.

The MBTI is a personality test, known formally as the Myers-Briggs Type Indicator, that divides people into 16 "types" -- each of which is assigned psychological traits and a four-letter code.

The test was created by two Americans who saw it as a way of matching women to jobs during World War II. It has drifted in and out of fashion ever since, gaining popularity in the 1990s as a career counseling tool in colleges and offices.

For many young South Koreans, dating is too expensive, or too dangerous

But its most recent surge in popularity is among hip young South Koreans, for whom knowing your MBTI type has become the latest craze -- particularly when it comes to dating.

Read More

Rather than waste time with more traditional ways of finding a partner, some diehard believers of this younger generation, mostly in their 20s and 30s, are using the MBTI to cut to the chase -- and rule out personalities deemed incompatible.

Speed dating

The MBTI approach to dating appeals to the practicality of the "MZ Generation" (a combination of Millennials and Gen Z), according to Lim Myoung-ho, a psychology professor at Dankook University.

"In this society, if you know the type that suits you well in advance, that is considered more efficient," Lim said.

That's why Lee Da-hyun, a 23-year-old university student in Seoul, always lets people know her MBTI type before meeting them for the first time.

"I don't need to go on and explain about myself. I can save time by saying that I'm ENFP ("energetic and friendly"), and they can understand what kind of person I am," Lee said. "Everyone knows one's type and the personality of that type nowadays."

An MBTI fortune telling booth in Seoul on June 25.

Lee's experiences have only strengthened her belief in the system. Her boyfriend's type is supposedly compatible with hers -- and "we've been together for over 1,000 days, so that's proof these types are good for each other," she said.

But not everybody is convinced. Some experts -- some of whom may remember the MBTI from its previous incarnations -- wonder if the younger crowd is overlooking swathes of eligible partners in the misguided hope of finding their happily-ever-after within an elusive four-letter combination.

Someone like you

The mother-daughter duo of Katharine Cook Briggs and Isabel Briggs Myers created their indicator -- which they based on theories of the Swiss psychologist Carl Jung -- in the 1940s, when women were for the first time being encouraged to take on industrial jobs vacated by a male workforce that had been sent to war.

Their test posits that each person leans toward either extroversion or introversion; sensing or intuition; thinking or feeling; and judging or perceiving.

Each of these "preferences" is represented by a letter, and the various combinations of these four letters make a total of 16 personality types.

The relative simplicity of the test is part of its enduring appeal. By the 1980s, the MBTI had become ubiquitous in the Western corporate world, where it was often used in hiring decisions and management development courses.

But since then, skepticism over the scientific merits of the test have seen its popularity in the workplace decline.

Many psychologists have questioned its methodology, saying there is insufficient evidence to support its claims and inconsistencies in its results. Take the test at two different times and you may get two different results, they say.

"It is easy to use ... but there is also an error of over-generalization or fixation," said psychology professor Lim.

Other critics point out that Briggs and Myers had no formal training in psychology; that human traits exist on a much more complex spectrum than the binaries the test draws; and that the assigned "type" might influence a person's behavior and choices, making it a self-fulfilling prophecy.

"Although the test does appear to measure several common personality traits, the patterns of data do not suggest that there is reason to believe that there are 16 unique types of personality," wrote David J. Pittenger, a psychology professor at Marshall University, in a 1993 paper.

"Taken as a whole, the MBTI makes few unique practical or theoretical contributions to the understanding of behavior."

A certain type

Still, young South Koreans appear willing to ignore the test's perceived faults for now. After all, it's not the first time they've gravitated toward this sort of thing.

In the early 2000s many South Koreans embraced a trend that claimed blood type was correlated to personality traits, and thus romantic compatibility -- Type O individuals, for instance, were supposedly more outgoing.

And companies have been quick to cash in -- racing to launch MBTI-themed products, from computer games to beer and vacations.

There's the "MBTI Blind Date" computer game simulator, which allows players to chat with characters representing each of the 16 personality types to gauge their compatibility, and many similar games.

It launched in June, and was downloaded 1.2 million times in its first week, according to its developer Thinkflow.

"It's like a simulation of a date so that one can reduce the probability of failure a little more, or make a relationship more efficient," said Thinkflow CEO Lee Su-ji.

Then there's the tourism company Paradise Group, offering holiday recommendations based on your MBTI type; or the Jeju Beer Company that released a series of cans decorated with the letter codes of the 16 personality types.

To the alarm of some, MBTI is even finding its way back into the workplace.

A scan of a Korean job recruitment website turns up dozens of listings seeking candidates of certain MBTI types; one marketing role, for instance, asks for ENFP types, who are believed to be "enthusiastic and innovative".

Disillusioned young people

It's not just the scientific validity of the MBTI that has observers concerned, but what this sudden trend may suggest about the young people participating in it.

The rise of the MBTI over the past two to three years coincided with the Covid-19 pandemic, said Lim, the professor. Part of the appeal lay in group psychology, as people took comfort in being able to categorize themselves alongside others.

"People probably have become more anxious, so they need a place they can lean on psychologically," Lim said. "Clearly, people feel less anxious when they are united in a group."

Even without the coronavirus, young Koreans have plenty to be anxious about. A hyper-competitive job market, rising unemployment rates, skyrocketing housing prices, and toxic workplace cultures are often blamed for creating a generation of disaffected youth with a pessimistic view of their future.

Exhausted and without hope, East Asian youth are 'lying flat'

In the early 2010s, the MZ Generation was popularly referred to as the "n-po" generation -- a reference to how many were choosing to give up things to the nth degree, by foregoing marriage, children, home ownership and personal friendships.

Those who are willing to join the rat race often have too little time or patience for dating -- which, for some, is where the MBTI comes in.

Yoon Ji-hye, a university student in Seoul, doesn't see the "need to invest much time" in dating someone whose type is not a good match.

"I don't feel that I'm compatible with a T type ("analytical and logical"), while I'm quite suitable with ESFP types ("friendly, playful and adaptable")," said Yoon, a self-proclaimed ENFP.

Love is all around

However, many experts say it's unhealthy to place too much emphasis on one's MBTI result -- whether that's in dating, friendship or work.

Lim, the professor, warned that people can "give false answers easily in this test" and that using it as a tool to "avoid (or exclude) someone ... is against the original creator's intention."

Myers and Briggs had hoped their work could help people better understand and appreciate their differences, Lim said.

Even The Myers-Briggs Company, publisher of the official MBTI test, sounded a note of caution.

Isabel Briggs Myers, left, and her mother Katharine Cook Briggs.

Cameron Nott, a psychologist and the firm's Asia-Pacific managing director, said the company is "very pleased" about the test's popularity in South Korea -- but added "it wouldn't be appropriate to use it to try and identify a compatible partner."

"While dating someone who has similar personality preferences can have its benefits, we have all heard of the expression 'opposites attract.' So to rule out a potential partner on account of having a different MBTI personality type might see someone miss out on an exciting relationship with a wonderful person," Nott said.

Whether young South Koreans are ready to heed such advice is another matter.

"I consider personality more important than appearances (in a relationship)," said Yoon, the student. "I don't think I'll try meeting someone whose type is not compatible with mine."

Jihye Yoon contributed reporting from Seoul.

Correction: An earlier version of this story misstated the name of the software developer. It is Thingsflow.

CNN · by Jessie Yeung and Yoonjung Seo, CNN​

De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

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