Addressing problems faced by President Vladimir Putin, a new PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo by Kyle Marquardt finds Buryats and Tatars less supportive of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine than ethnic Russians. For Pavel Baev, the striking image of Putin attending Orthodox Christmas services alone symbolizes his self-isolation. Kornely Kakachia, though, believes the Putin regime will fail only if self-exiled Russians return to agitate for change.

Trying to win the war, Putin has utilized Yevgeny Prigozhin’s paramilitary Wagner Group at what Mikhail Troitskiy calls the “political price” of Prigozhin’s ambitions. This has sparked conflict with regular military leaders, which Maria Popova says is undermining Russian efforts to seize Bakhmut and Soledar. Samuel Greene thinks Putin’s decision to put General Gerasimov in charge of the war effort will make little difference, and Nikolai Petrov believes Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov lacks real ideological commitment to the war. The Kremlin continues to elevate Cossacks, writes Richard Arnold.

Mikhail Alexseev concludes that Russian attacks in Bakhmut and Soledar show Russia “intends to keep fighting” and bets that U.S. support for Ukraine will eventually run out. Addressing this support in a new PONARS Eurasia Commentary, Volodymyr Dubovyk finds strong current commitment but worries assistance “could become more complicated” as Republicans take power in the U.S. legislative branch. According to Troitskiy, both sides have managed to adapt to changing conditions and thus have both the means and will to keep fighting. All this is a dramatic change from the 1990s, when such violence seemed inconceivable, says Popova.

Kristina Hook describes how Ukrainian teachers have continued educating students, giving classes in post offices, gas stations, and even backyards. Petro Burkovskiy believes the Russian Orthodox Church in Ukraine will soon cease to exist, either through a long legal process or through a gradual loss of membership. And Tetyana Malyarenko and Boris Kormych document Russia’s “de-modernization” of previously and newly occupied Ukrainian territories.

For Kirill Rogov, “rabid fascism” is increasingly taking shape in Russia on a background of constant hysteria, witch hunts, and a lack of political middle ground. In this context, says Popova, the letter from 170 Russian doctors to Putin asking for an end of the abuse of opposition leader Alexey Navalny is “highly unlikely” to change anything.

On other topics, Alexander Iskandaryan finds Russia’s involvement in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict puts it in a difficult position: Turkey and Azerbaijan need it, and Armenia is unhappy with it. And Joshua Tucker finds Russian influence in the 2016 U.S. elections was likely limited to “a small portion of the American electorates.”

Event

New Voices on Eurasia with Aaron Erlich from McGill University on “Pro-Kremlin Propaganda’s Failure in Ukraine: Evidence and Lessons Learned,” Thursday, January 19, 2023, 4– 5 PM (EST).