In a new PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo, Felix Krawatzek and George Soroka break down how Putin has weaponized Soviet history to generate support for Russia’s war in Ukraine, with long-run moral and practical repercussions for Russia. In addition, the private military company Wagner has gone into the film business to “heroize mercenary activity,” write Marlene Laruelle and Kelian Sanz Pascual. Some in Russia’s Radical Right, though, are meeting the invasion with caution or even criticism, Laruelle finds. Tomila Lankina detects imperial-era social divides influencing patterns of support for it today.

Russia’s elites face many different pressures to conform. The recent detention of Vladimir Mau, a prominent rector who publicly supported the war, shows even private criticism of the Kremlin is no longer tolerated, says Kirill Rogov. It also signals the quality of Russian institutions is unlikely to improve any time soon, argues Vladimir Gelman, author of a new book on “bad governance” in Russia. Konstantin Sonin recalls urging a top Russian Central Bank official to step down after the February 24 invasion, but she replied her resignation would be disastrous for ordinary Russians.

Jennifer Brick Murtazashvili and Tymofii Brik attribute Ukraine’s strong resistance to a rapidly developing sense of local civic identity, while Volodymyr Dubovyk emphasizes the importance of Western military support. Kathryn Stoner portrays Ukraine’s fight as primarily about democracy, urging Western countries to support it, as Lucan Way sees opportunities for reform during Ukraine’s rebuilding process. Olexiy Haran adds that more weapons are needed to stop Russian advances and liberate occupied territories, noting popular opinion in Ukraine favors joining NATO and opposes territorial concessions.

Mariya Snegovaya pushes back against the idea Putin will escalate if he feels “cornered” by the West in Ukraine, citing cases where he has backed down from a fight. Samuel Greene argues Western powers’ definition of victory should include a high cost for Russia, a reinvigorated commitment to multilateralism, and a quick end to the conflict. Amid concerns the Kremlin could meddle in the upcoming U.S. midterm elections, Brian Taylor suggests “a poor midterm performance by the Democrats would be perceived as weakening Biden politically, which would be in Russia’s interests.”

In Central Asia, Uzbekistan’s authorities clashed with autonomy advocates in Karakalpakstan over a proposed constitutional amendment that would end the latter’s autonomous status. Murtazashvili calls on Uzbek President Mirziyoyev for transparency regarding authorities’ actions leading up to this. Erica Marat characterizes Kyrgyz authorities’ investigation into journalist Bolot Temirov as “a larger signal to the entire society: ‘Don’t participate in all these processes you call democratic.’”