SEPTEMBER 2024
Although in recent years election campaigns have begun even before the actual election year, traditionally campaign intensity heats up after Labor Day. However, on average, September of election years 1952 through 2020 ended with losses in 9 of the 18 presidential election years, and the month of October has had the worst average loss during election years. Our first article discusses how the upcoming campaign could impact the markets. Let us know if this raises any questions regarding your investment options.
The rebound in stock prices coincides with economic readings that are consistent with further economic growth. Signaling a resilient consumer, retail sales jumped 1.0% in July, the most since January 2023, and much stronger than the consensus estimate of 0.3%. The leading contributor was vehicle sales, but most other major retail categories posted gains. On a y/y trend basis, retail sales increased 2.4%. While it has come down substantially from earlier in this cycle, it is now running close to pre-pandemic rates.
In a positive sign for future consumption, consumer attitudes improved slightly in August. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index saw its first increase since March, led by a rise in consumer expectations to their best level in four months, with the outlook for both personal finances and the economy strengthening. However, there are signs of slower economic growth ahead. Our second article details indicators that may be relevant for your investment strategy. Give us a call if you would like to discuss how this may impact you.
This month's "What's Happening Now" section shares stories on how rich one needs to be to join the top 1%, the 12 best small towns in Italy, and a picturesque mountain town just named the 'most charming' in the U.S.
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