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Quotes of the Day:
"U.S. appreciation [for special operations], defined narrowly in mainly military terms, is trendy and intermittent. Elite Ranger battalions, lionized for daring deeds during World War II, later left army rolls for 35 years, until admirers restored them. Green Berets, briefly popular when Kennedy was president, fell from favor a decade after the Vietnam War, before they began to revive. PSYOP, which should underpin or supplement most special operations, attracts scant attention. Tactics outshine strategies. Forces outrank employment concepts, which presently emphasize so-called ‘low-intensity” conflicts that U.S. leaders largely overlooked when nuclear deterrence and NATO defense were their only serious national security concerns."
- John M. Collins 1987
“Prime Minister Ardern is correct that nuclear weapons arsenals carry with them great risks of widespread destruction. However, the greatest risk lies in committing not to use them.”
- Julian Spencer-Churchill
“The greatest weapon against stress is our ability to choose one thought over another.”
- William James
1. N. Korea fires 3 SRBMs toward East Sea, one flying over NLL: S. Korean military
2. N. Korea's 1st firing of missile into area near S. Korean territorial waters 'intolerable': Seoul military
3. United Nations Command: A Nuisance or a Cornerstone of Stability on the Korean Peninsula? | Center for Asia Pacific Strategy
4. North and South Korea fire missiles off each other's coasts for first time
5. Yoon calls for swift action to make N.K. pay price for missile launch
6. North Korea fires at least 17 missiles, including first to land close to South's territorial waters
7. Biden Administration Foreign Policy Tracker: November (KOREA)
8. Better call Seoul: U.S. watches nervously as Europe turns to South Korea for weapons
9. North Korea Brackets the South With a Barrage of Missiles
10. DP demands sacking of interior minister, national police chief
11. President Yoon’s “Audacious Plan”: Neither Audacious nor a Plan, but Still Right
12. Nuclear Test? Why North Korea Could Start a New Crisis
13. North Korea Warns of ‘Consequences’ for South Korea-US Joint Military Exercises
14. North Korea fires 23 missiles, one landing off South Korean coast for first time
1. N. Korea fires 3 SRBMs toward East Sea, one flying over NLL: S. Korean military
Although counterintuitive to some, this may be a sign of desperation because Kim's political warfare and blackmail diplomacy strategies have failed to achieve Kim's desired effects, namely the ROK and US refuse to appease him. The ROK/US alliance must hold firm and not give into Kim's demands. It is especially time to up the pressure with a comprehensive information and influence campaign to force three choices on Kim - change his behavior, have the elite and mil ldrshp force a change, or the Korean people will cause change. It is time for the ROK/US alliance to adopt a superior political warfare strategy with 3 lines of effort: a human rights upfront approach, a comprehensive influence campaign and pursuit of a free and unified Korea. We must recognize the bottom line: The only way we are going to see an end to the nuclear program and military threats as well as the crimes against humanity being committed against the Korean people living in the north by the mafia-like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime is through achievement of unification and the establishment of a free and unified Korea that is secure and stable, non-nuclear, economically vibrant, and unified under a liberal constitutional form of government based on individual liberty, rule of law, and human rights as determined by the Korean people. A free and unified Korea or in short, a United Republic of Korea (UROK). Again the bottom line is Kim's strategy is failing & we need to double down to make him, the elite and mil ldrs, and the Korean people see the light (what light might that be? I leave it to Kim's imagination - though from where he is sitting he may never see the light - my attempt at some gallows humor)
(2nd LD) N. Korea fires 3 SRBMs toward East Sea, one flying over NLL: S. Korean military | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 김수연 · November 2, 2022
(ATTN: UPDATES with more details throughout)
SEOUL, Nov. 2 (Yonhap) -- North Korea launched at least three short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) into the East Sea on Wednesday, one of which flew across its de facto maritime border with South Korea, according to the South's military.
The Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said the missile firing from a site in or around the North's eastern coastal city of Wonsan was detected at around 8:51 a.m.
The North's latest provocation came in apparent protest of the five-day large-scale combined air drills of South Korea and the United States that kicked off Monday.
One of the three SRBMs fell into high seas 26 kilometers south of the Northern Limit Line (NLL), an area 57 km east of the South's eastern city of Sokcho and 167 km northwest of Ulleung Island near Dokdo. It headed toward the island before falling into the international sea, prompting local authorities to issue an air raid alert.
"Our military can never tolerate North Korea's provocative act and will sternly respond to it in close cooperation with the U.S.," the JCS said.
The North's provocation, the second launch in less than a week, came as the allies on Monday kicked off the five-day Vigilant Storm exercise.
The drills involve more than 240 aircraft, including their advanced stealth jets, amid growing speculation that North Korea may conduct a nuclear test soon.
sooyeon@yna.co.kr
yunhwanchae@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 김수연 · November 2, 2022
2. N. Korea's 1st firing of missile into area near S. Korean territorial waters 'intolerable': Seoul military
Excerpts:
"North Korea's missile launch, which marks the first time since the division of the peninsula that has landed near our territorial waters south of the Northern Limit Line, is very rare and intolerable," the JCS said in a press release.
One of the three SRBMs fell into high seas 26 kilometers south of the Northern Limit Line (NLL), an area 57 km east of the South's eastern city of Sokcho and 167 km northwest of Ulleung Island near Dokdo, according to the JCS.
(LEAD) N. Korea's 1st firing of missile into area near S. Korean territorial waters 'intolerable': Seoul military | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · November 2, 2022
(ATTN: UPDATES with more from 6th para; ADDS photo)
By Yi Wonju
SEOUL, Nov. 2 (Yonhap) -- South Korea's military on Wednesday denounced North Korea's launch of its first missile into an area close to the South's territorial waters since the division of the peninsula more than seven decades ago, calling it an "intolerable" act.
Earlier in the day, the North launched at least three short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) into the East Sea, one of which flew across its de facto maritime border with South Korea, according to the South's military.
The Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said the missile firing from a site in or around the North's eastern coastal city of Wonsan was detected at around 8:51 a.m.
"North Korea's missile launch, which marks the first time since the division of the peninsula that has landed near our territorial waters south of the Northern Limit Line, is very rare and intolerable," the JCS said in a press release.
"Our military vowed to respond firmly to this (provocation)," it added.
One of the three SRBMs fell into high seas 26 kilometers south of the Northern Limit Line (NLL), an area 57 km east of the South's eastern city of Sokcho and 167 km northwest of Ulleung Island near Dokdo, according to the JCS.
It headed toward the island before falling into the international sea, prompting local authorities to issue a rare air raid alert.
The sirens blared across Ulleung Island around 8:55 a.m., sending residents scurrying into basements and shelters.
The North's latest provocation came as Seoul and Washington are staging the Vigilant Storm exercise involving more than 240 aircraft across the skies of the peninsula in a bid to bolster deterrence posture against the North's threats. Pyongyang has long denounced joint military drills between Seoul and Washington as a rehearsal for invasion.
Tensions have been running high on the peninsula in recent weeks with the recalcitrant country staging multiple missile launches and artillery firing amid growing concerns it may soon conduct its seventh nuclear test.
julesyi@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · November 2, 2022
3.
United Nations Command: A Nuisance or a Cornerstone of Stability on the Korean Peninsula? | Center for Asia Pacific Strategy
A fascinating perspective on the United Nations Command from someone who is both an "outsider and insider." General Gerber offers a unique perspective from his service in Korea in the Neutral Nations Supervisory Commission
As an aside I was able to spend a week in Korea in September with General Gerber at the World Knowledge Forum where we shared experiences. I learned a lot from him. And for full disclosure I am honored to be a member of the board of advisors for the Center for Asia Pacific Strategy (CAPS) where General Gerber is Chairman of the Board which has published this paper.
The complete 27 page paper can be downloaded here:
https://apstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/2022_United-Nations-Command_Gerber_FULL.pdf
In addition this essay is a nice complement to Shawn Creamer's detailed description of the United Nations Command and the Sending States, here: http://icks.org/n/data/ijks/2017FW-4.pdf
United Nations Command: A Nuisance or a Cornerstone of Stability on the Korean Peninsula? | Center for Asia Pacific Strategy
apstrategy.org · by CAPS · October 30, 2022
Most visitors to South Korea are pretty surprised to see the United Nations (UN) flag waving from poles at military installations together with the South Korean and/or the U.S. flag. The closer they get to the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) separating the two Koreas since 1953 the more this constellation is visible. All aforementioned installations are hosting infrastructure, staff elements or units with a direct affiliation to the United Nations Command (UNC). Apart from the highly visible and for most people closed DMZ, UNC is a strong reminder of the fact that the two Koreas are also 69 years after the signing of the 1953 Armistice Agreement in Korea technically still at war and a comprehensive peace regime has yet to be achieved.
There have been discussion and debate on UNC’s utility, particularly among South Korean politics, basically from the aftermath of the signing of the Armistice Agreement (AA) onwards. Most recently it is getting more prominent and has been accelerated in the framework of the Moon administration’s initiative for an “end-of-war declaration” (EOW) on the Korean Peninsula. Prominent voices in South Korea are considering UNC even to be “under attack”. This holds certainly true with regard to North Korea launching numerous attempts and requests to the UN to revoke UN Security Council Resolution UNSCR 84 thus disbanding UNC, the latest being at the UN General Assembly in autumn 2021. But there are critical voices in South Korea as well that are openly questioning utility and necessity of UNC as of today.
This article does not intend to discuss the pros and cons of the more or less disappeared EOW campaign by the last ROK administration nor the implications on UNC in case a declaration should be signed by all relevant actors. However, viewed from the outside, the recent discussion and perceptions on the “peace processes” on the Korean Peninsula are looking somehow strange, assuming an EOW would be signed by all relevant parties on government level: Politically, the Korean war would be terminated but an armistice agreement concluded and signed by the military level would still be in place. A 69-year-old military document would thus have superseded a political decision of today!
Amid all these reservations and objections against UNC among Korean, unequivocal in the North, more subtle but often hidden in the South, UNC does continue to play a crucial role for security and stability on the Korean Peninsula. This article is attempting to add some arguments to the above statement based on extended experience as a close outside observer of UNC and its daily armistice management on a strategic as well as operational-tactical level.
The author has served from February 2012 to August 2017 as Swiss Member to the Neutral Nations Supervisory Commission (NNSC), a body mandated by the AA to monitor the correct implementation of the provisions of the agreement. This role provided a unique opportunity to closely monitor UNC activities, particularly of its Armistice Commission (UNCMAC), but also to observe the large-scale exercise series “KEY RESOLVE/FOAL EAGLE (KR/FE) in spring and “ULCHI FREEDOM GUARDIAN (UFG) end of summer. Between 2012 and 2017 the author has observed a total of 11 of these exercises.
apstrategy.org · by CAPS · October 30, 2022
4. North and South Korea fire missiles off each other's coasts for first time
Don't back down. Good response from the ROK and the alliance.
North and South Korea fire missiles off each other's coasts for first time
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Image source, YONHAP/REUTERS
By Frances Mao
BBC News
North and South Korea have both fired missiles landing in waters off each other's coasts for the first time.
Seoul retaliated on Wednesday three hours after Pyongyang launched a missile that landed less than 60km (37mi) off the South's city of Sokcho.
The South's military said this was an "unacceptable" breach of its territory.
It fired three air-to-ground missiles in response, which officials said landed a similar distance past the Northern Limit Line (NLL).
The demarcation line marks the rough midway-point in the sea between North and South Korea, but the North has never accepted the boundary.
North Korea fired at least 10 missiles in both east and west directions on Wednesday, South Korean officials say.
It comes a day after the North threatened the US and South Korea over their joint military drills, saying "The US and South Korea will have to face a terrible case and pay the most horrible price in history".
There is concern that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un may be preparing the ground for the first nuclear weapons test in five years.
At least one of the North Korean missiles - launched before 09:00 (00:00 GMT) on Wednesday - landed about 26km south of the border, 57km east of Sokcho and 167km north-west of Ulleung island.
It triggered air-raid sirens on Ulleung, where residents were told to evacuate to underground shelters.
It was picked up immediately by South Korean and Japanese authorities who swiftly condemned the escalation from Pyongyang.
South Korea's President Yoon Suk-yeol labelled it an "effective territorial invasion" and vowed a "swift and firm response".
Under international law, countries can only establish territorial claim to 12 nautical miles of sea bordering their land, and the missile fell outside this boundary.
Around three hours later, the South fired three precision air-to-ground missiles from warplanes in waters off its east coast.
The firings are a marked escalation in hostilities across the peninsula this year, which had already witnessed over 50 missile launches from North Korea - including one ballistic missile that passed over Japan.
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BBC · by Menu
5. Yoon calls for swift action to make N.K. pay price for missile launch
Dear President Yoon,
Focus on long term action. Initiative a comprehensive influence campaign to influence andmodbleize the elite, the military leadership and the Korean people in the north. Give them the tools for change (practical knowledge and political support)
Initiate a human rights upfront approach (it is good that you are again signing on to sponsor the UN resolution on north Korean human rights).
And most importantly, pursue a free and unified Korea,
Continue to sustain alliance military readiness exercises and demonstrate that every action Kim takes is another failure. Kim must not get what he wants.
(3rd LD) Yoon calls for swift action to make N.K. pay price for missile launch | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 김덕현 · November 2, 2022
(ATTN: ADDS national security adviser's remarks in last 4 paras)
By Lee Haye-ah
SEOUL, Nov. 2 (Yonhap) -- President Yoon Suk-yeol condemned North Korea's latest barrage of missile launches, one of them close to South Korean waters, as a de facto violation of the South's territory and ordered swift action to make the North pay for the provocations.
Yoon also called on the military to be ready against additional and high-level provocations by North Korea as he presided over an emergency National Security Council meeting following the launch.
North Korea fired three short-range ballistic missiles into the East Sea, and one of them flew past the Northern Limit Line, the de facto maritime border, and toward South Korean waters in an unprecedented provocation since the division of the Korean Peninsula, according to the South's military.
"President Yoon Suk-yeol noted that North Korea's provocation today was effectively a violation of our territory by a missile that crossed the NLL for the first time since division," his office said in a press release after the meeting.
Yoon made clear that no attempt by North Korea to divide South Korean society and the South Korea-U.S. alliance will succeed.
"President Yoon Suk-yeol ordered that strict measures be taken swiftly to ensure North Korea pays a clear price for its provocation," the office said. "He also ordered the military to maintain full readiness to protect the people's lives and safety and readiness against the possibility of additional and high-intensity provocations by North Korea in the future."
The latest launch came as South Korea and the U.S. have been conducting joint air drills involving more than 240 aircraft, including advanced stealth jets, to bolster deterrence against the North.
North Korea has condemned all allied military exercises as rehearsals for an invasion.
The NSC members "strongly condemned" the provocation as an act seriously threatening peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula and made clear that all responsibility for raising tensions, including through its recent launches of missiles and artillery firings in violation of U.N. Security Council resolutions and an inter-Korean military tension reduction agreement, lies with the North.
"The participants especially said that this provocation that was carried out during our national period of mourning clearly revealed the anti-humanity and anti-humanitarian side of the North Korean regime, and deplored this," the office said, referring to the mourning period that has been declared over the deaths of more than 150 people in a Halloween crowd crush last weekend.
The NSC members in attendance included National Security Adviser Kim Sung-han, presidential chief of staff Kim Dae-ki, Foreign Minister Park Jin, Unification Minister Kwon Young-se and National Intelligence Service Director Kim Kyou-hyun, among other officials.
Kim, the national security adviser, told reporters that the North's latest provocation is the most aggressive since 2010, when Pyongyang fired artillery shots toward the South Korean border island of Yeonpyeong.
"The last time North Korea violated the NLL and carried out a military provocation was the 2010 shelling provocation on Yeonpyeong Island, and it is the first time the NLL provocation has been carried out through a ballistic missile launch," Kim said, adding that he is "stringently watching" the situation.
In November 2010, North Korea shelled the front-line island, killing four people, including two civilians.
Kim also deplored the North for carrying out a military provocation at a time when South Korea is reeling from the Halloween tragedy.
hague@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 김덕현 · November 2, 2022
6. North Korea fires at least 17 missiles, including first to land close to South's territorial waters
This event did not even make the top 5 in this morning's Defense News EarlyBird. Hardly a blip on the news radar though it did make CNN reporting beginning last night. We have "Korea fatigue" (which of course upsets Kim Jong Un and is likely a contributing factor to his acting out an escalation).
We should expect a possible nuclear test soon.
North Korea fires at least 17 missiles, including first to land close to South's territorial waters | CNN
CNN · by Yoonjung Seo,Sophie Jeong,Junko Ogura · November 2, 2022
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Explained: How much damage can North Korea's weapons do?
02:28 - Source: CNN
Seoul, South Korea CNN —
North and South Korea fired missiles into waters off each other’s coasts for the first time on Wednesday as Seoul retaliated to Pyongyang’s latest barrage of weapons tests, further escalating tensions in the region.
North Korea fired as many as 17 missiles to the east and west of the Korean Peninsula, including a short-range ballistic missile that landed close to South Korean territorial waters for the first time since the 1945 division, Seoul’s Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said.
JCS said the missile landed in international waters 167 kilometers (104 miles) northwest of South Korea’s Ulleung island, about 26 kilometers south of the Northern Limit Line (NLL) – the de facto inter-Korean maritime border that North Korea does not recognize.
Japan’s Defense Ministry said North Korea conducted another launch later on Wednesday but did not provide further details.
A South Korean defense official said the missiles landed to the west of the peninsula in the Yellow Sea, known as the West Sea in Korea, and to the east in the Sea of Japan, also known as the East Sea.
Pyongyang also fired about 100 artillery shells into the buffer zone off the east coast of the peninsula, JCS added.
This photo provided on October 10, 2022, by the North Korean government, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un inspects a missile test at an undisclosed location in North Korea, as taken sometime between September 25 and October 9.
Korean Central News Agency/AP/File
Is it time to accept North Korea is a nuclear power?
An air raid warning on Ulleung island, located about 120 kilometers east of the peninsula, was lifted about 2 p.m. local time on Wednesday. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol said the North Korean test was an “effective territorial encroachment.”
At an emergency National Security Council (NSC) meeting, Yoon “ordered that a stern response be swiftly taken so that North Korea’s provocation pays a clear price,” according to South Korea’s presidential office.
In an immediate response, South Korea launched three air-to-surface missiles from F-15K and KF-16 fighter jets on Wednesday morning, according to JCS.
JCS said the South Korean Air Force targeted international waters north of the NLL at an equal distance to that which the North Korean missile had earlier landed south of the line.
“Our military’s precise strike showed our will to firmly respond to any North Korean provocations including short-range ballistic missile, and our capability and readiness to precisely target the enemy,” JCS said.
North Korea is “fully responsible” for the situation as they are the ones continuing to provoke despite warnings, JCS added.
On Wednesday, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida told reporters that North Korea is launching missiles at an “unprecedentedly high frequency.”
Kishida also called for a National Security Council meeting to be held as soon as possible due to the rising tensions on the Korean Peninsula.
People watch a television screen showing a news broadcast with file footage of a North Korean missile test, at a railway station in Seoul on November 2, 2022.
Jung Yeon-Je/AFP/Getty Images
Rising tensions
The launch is North Korea’s 29th this year, according to a CNN count, and comes after a North Korean official warned in a statement earlier Wednesday that the United States and South Korea would pay the “most horrible price in history” for any military action against Pyongyang.
The aggressive acceleration in weapons testing and rhetoric has sparked alarm in the region, with the US, South Korea and Japan responding with missile launches and joint military exercises.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has ramped up missile tests this year.
KCNA/Reuters
On Monday, the United States and South Korea began previously scheduled large-scale military exercises called “Vigilant Storm.”
The maneuvers involve 240 aircraft and “thousands of service members” from both countries, according to the US Defense Department.
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin is scheduled to meet with his South Korean counterpart Lee Jong-sup at the Pentagon on Thursday.
Experts have previously told CNN that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un could be sending a message by deliberately showcasing the nation’s arsenal during a period of heightened global conflict.
Last month, North Korean state media broke six months of silence over this year’s spate of missile tests, claiming they were meant to demonstrate Pyongyang’s readiness to fire tactical nuclear warheads at potential targets in the South.
The latest tests also come after the head of the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog warned last week that Pyongyang could be preparing for a nuclear test – its first since 2017 – with satellite imagery showing activity at its underground nuclear test site.
“We are following this very, very closely. We hope it doesn’t happen but indications unfortunately go in another direction,” said International Atomic Energy Agency chief Rafael Grossi last Thursday.
This story has been updated to reflect that North Korea fired a number of missiles of various types and the distance in kilometers from the NLL.
CNN · by Yoonjung Seo,Sophie Jeong,Junko Ogura · November 2, 2022
7. Biden Administration Foreign Policy Tracker: November (KOREA)
https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2022/11/01/biden-administration-foreign-policy-tracker-november/#korea
Korea
By David Maxwell
Previous Trend: Neutral
October culminated with additional North Korean ballistic and cruise missile tests — setting a record for the number of launches in a single year — along with continued rocket and artillery firings. North Korean forces also undertook operations in the DMZ and West Sea. The tests entailed launching a variety of short- and medium-range ballistic missiles as well as an intermediate-range missile that overflew Japan for a record distance. Analysts assess the 2018 North-South Comprehensive Military Agreement has, in effect, failed. This appears to put the final nail in the coffin of the diplomatic initiatives of 2018–2019 undertaken by former presidents Donald Trump and Moon Jae-in.
The ROK/U.S. alliance has responded with increased readiness exercises on land, at sea, and in the air to include the deployment of the USS Ronald Reagan carrier battle group and strategic assets to Guam to demonstrate strength and resolve.
Despite calls to recognize the North as a nuclear state and conduct arms control negotiations, the Biden administration has correctly resisted. If the alliance gives in to North Korea’s blackmail diplomacy, Kim will assess his strategy a success and likely double down.
With the completion of the Chinese Party Congress, speculation continues that there will be a seventh nuclear test. Senior diplomats from the ROK, Japan, and the U.S. have warned of an unparalleled (but unspecified) response to a test.
Despite a regime crackdown, Koreans in the north continue to watch South Korean media. This indicates that a robust information and influence campaign would be well received by the Korean people in the North.
8. Better call Seoul: U.S. watches nervously as Europe turns to South Korea for weapons
If our industrial base cannot produce and the cupboards of the Arsenal of Democracy are bare then what are our friends, partners, and. allies to do? But we should not look at Seoul's armaments industry as competition but rather as a complementary partner in the Arsenal of Democracy.
Better call Seoul: U.S. watches nervously as Europe turns to South Korea for weapons
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/01/europe-south-korea-weapons-00064427
Poland is spending billions, and other countries are expected to follow.
South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol said in August that his goal is to push his country into the top four in global weapons suppliers. | Chung Sung-Jun/Getty Images
By PAUL MCLEARY and LEE HUDSON
11/01/2022 01:34 PM EDT
South Korea is racking up multibillion-dollar defense deals in Europe as Seoul pushes to become a bigger player in international weapons sales.
And it’s causing some jitters in the U.S. defense industry.
The contracts for tanks, fighter planes and rocket launchers — all signed within the past three months — come as European capitals look to restock their warehouses after months of sending their own equipment to Ukraine. And Eastern Europe, which normally turns to the U.S. for new weapons, is increasingly considering buying from South Korea instead, which says it can deliver them faster and cheaper.
South Korean defense firms have long been active in Europe, selling mobile howitzers and small arms to a number of countries over the past half-decade. But those deals have paled in comparison to the $5.8 billion blockbuster contract Poland signed with two South Korean companies in July. The agreement included 980 K2 Black Panther tanks, 672 K9 self-propelled howitzers and 48 FA-50 fighter planes, with deliveries on some of the tanks and howitzers expected to begin by the end of this year. The deals could be worth as much as $15 billion if all of the options are exercised in the coming years.
And last month, Poland signed a contract with South Korean company Hanwha Defense for 288 Chunmoo multiple rocket launchers, with the first batch arriving next year, instead of waiting years to begin receiving the U.S.-made High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems.
Poland was initially seeking as many as 500 HIMARS from the U.S., but at an Oct. 19 signing ceremony with his South Korean counterpart, Defense Minister Mariusz Błaszczak explained that “unfortunately due to limited industrial capabilities, it will not be possible for the equipment to be delivered in a satisfactory timeframe. Therefore, we started talks with South Korea — our proven partner.”
The sheer size of the contracts, and promises of a fast turnaround on delivery, has caught the attention of the defense industry in the U.S.
“There is concern from U.S. industry that this won’t stop with Poland,” said one industry insider who has dealings multiple U.S. defense firms, and who — like others in this article — requested anonymity to speak about relations between the U.S., Europe and South Korea.
The person downplayed South Korea’s ability to fulfill orders quickly.
“This is purely a marketing blitz by South Korea,” the insider said, noting that the plan to have equipment begin arriving by the end of the year is an ambitious schedule, and one that will be hard to keep consistent over the next few years. “They haven’t proven they can deliver the equipment as fast as they’re promising.”
The Polish deals are expected to force trade-offs that could come at some cost for Seoul, requiring the government to prioritize building for Warsaw over resupplying its own military, said Haena Jo, a research analyst for defense and military at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
“It seems that the [South Korean] companies have the industrial capacity to meet the demands, which has been proven by the first batch of the K2 and the K9 having been handed over to Poland in such a short span of time,” Jo said. “The only way this could have been made possible must have been from the ROK reprioritizing Poland’s order over its own armed forces modernization, which is not common practice.”
South Korea’s defense industry has long built weapons and equipment intended to be compatible with American gear, since the two countries would be expected to fight side-by-side in any conflict with North Korea or China. That familiarity makes it an attractive option for NATO countries looking to rearm quickly and relatively cheaply.
A second U.S. defense industry insider was less worried. “Buying Korean is not yet a major concern” for the U.S., the person said, adding that the U.S. and European countries have a number of long-standing relationships that aren’t likely to be broken by the competition.
American defense officials and industry executives have long acknowledged that U.S.-made equipment — and the years-long supply chain guarantees that come along with contracts — is more expensive and takes take longer to arrive, but it remains superior in most cases to weaponry produced overseas.
The scale of South Korea’s ambitions is impossible to dismiss, however.
President Yoon Suk-yeol said in August that his goal is to push his country into the top four in global weapons suppliers, challenging the U.S., Russia and France for contracts across the globe. The country is currently the world’s eighth-largest defense exporter, and has seen exports shoot up 177 percent between 2016 and 2021, according to data provided by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
A July report by the Export-Import Bank of Korea revealed that defense exports increased from $3 billion in 2020 to $7 billion in 2021, and will likely hit the $10 billion mark for the first time this year.
And the European orders are expected to keep coming.
In late September, Estonia’s top general traveled to Seoul to attend the DX Korea 2022 trade show and met with his South Korean counterpart, as Tallinn looks to beef up its own defenses as quickly as possible. Estonia has already ordered 18 K9 self-propelled howitzers from Hanwha, joining Turkey, Poland, Finland and Norway in fielding the guns.
Likewise, Norway is considering buying the K2 tank, and Norwegian ammunition manufacturer Nammo has signed an agreement with South Korea’s Hyundai Rotem to develop new 120mm rounds for the tank, whether Oslo buys it or not.
If the tanks, planes and rocket launchers can arrive as promised, other countries looking for a quick turnaround will likely consider calling Seoul rather than getting stuck in a years-long holding pattern with the U.S. defense industry, which is already busy with domestic orders and its own existing foreign contracts.
Another selling point is South Korea’s willingness to allow the local defense firms of the purchasing countries to take part in manufacturing, which leads to “a possibility for customers to generate their own exports in future from technology acquired,” Jo said. The first 180 K2 tanks will begin arriving in Poland by the end of this year, with the remaining 800 to be built, at least in part, in Poland.
Max Bergmann, European program director at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, sees Europe’s turn to South Korea as positive for allied unity as well as the countries’ respective defense industries.
“There’s a real benefit to having greater linkages between our European and Asian allies,” as the U.S. continues to attempt to turn its gaze to the Indo-Pacific, he said. “I could see the U.S. defense industry being somewhat concerned about potential loss of market share, but from a broader U.S. national security perspective we should see that Europe has a real problem,” in getting its industrial base geared up to meet growing domestic needs.
Concerns over the health of the European defense industrial base are long-standing, as many NATO allies have relied heavily on imports of American weapons and equipment while focusing their own industries elsewhere. “Most of Europe’s defense industry has been focused on exports, not for internal consumption,” Bergmann added, “and so there is a need in Europe to get their defense industrial capacity back.”
During the July signing ceremony for the multibillion-dollar deal, Blaszczak, the Polish deputy prime minister and minister of defense, said that “due to Poland’s support for Ukraine, it was necessary to fill the void in ground and air power. The Korean weapon system was the most suitable considering the technology, price and the time of introduction.”
The deals, he said, were “just the first stage of the two countries’ cooperation.”
9. North Korea Brackets the South With a Barrage of Missiles
Again, good response from the ROK.
North Korea Brackets the South With a Barrage of Missiles
In response, South Korea fired three air-to-ground missiles from warplanes into the sea north of the disputed border
https://www.wsj.com/articles/pyongyang-fires-missile-as-u-s-south-korea-conduct-joint-drills-11667350727?mod=Searchresults_pos1&page=1
By Dasl YoonFollow
Updated Nov. 2, 2022 5:30 am ET
SEOUL—North Korea unleashed its biggest barrage in years, firing nearly two dozen missiles, including one that flew south of its disputed maritime border and so close to a South Korean island that it triggered an air-raid warning.
The Kim Jong Un regime, which lashed out in recent days over U.S.-South Korean military drills, launched ballistic missiles from at least eight different locations off its eastern and western coasts. The alert-triggering missile landed about 16 miles south of the Northern Limit Line, a disputed inter-Korean border, after flying in the direction of the South’s Ulleung Island. The missile landed close to South Korea’s territorial waters.
In response, South Korea fired three air-to-ground missiles from warplanes into the sea north of the disputed border. North Korea shelled a different South Korean island in 2010 and a South Korean military unit near the Demilitarized Zone in 2015, but Wednesday was the first instance of Pyongyang flying a missile south of the countries’ disputed maritime border. South Korean authorities are analyzing whether the missile that crossed the border had gone off course or whether the flight path was intentional.
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Following the barrage of missiles, North Korea fired about 100 artillery shells in the buffer zone around the disputed maritime border. South Korea’s military sent messages warning North Korea to stop firing in violation of a 2018 inter-Korean military agreement.
South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol called an emergency meeting shortly after the launches, vowing a swift and firm response so that North Korea pays a price for its provocation. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida called the repeated missile tests “absolutely unacceptable.”
South Korea’s National Security Council also protested the launch, which came during a national mourning period over the deaths of at least 156 people who were crushed in a crowded nightlife district in Seoul. The provocation reflected a lack of regard for the recent loss of life in South Korea, the NSC said in a statement.
What’s Next After North Korea’s Latest Barrage of Weapon Tests
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What’s Next After North Korea’s Latest Barrage of Weapon Tests
Play video: What’s Next After North Korea’s Latest Barrage of Weapon Tests
During a holiday filled with fireworks and celebrations, North Korean state media released photos showing Kim Jong Un supervising drills simulating nuclear strikes against the U.S. and South Korea. The images hint at what could be next for the regime’s negotiations with the West. Photo Composite: Emily Siu
North Korea is protesting the recent joint military drills between Washington and Seoul and escalating tensions to create pretext for a larger provocation, potentially its next nuclear test, said Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul. “Once South Korea takes retaliatory action to its provocations, North Korea can use that as justification to showcase its nuclear capacity,” Mr. Yang said.
In recent weeks, South Korean officials had warned that North Korea could spring a surprise, localized attack and said they were making preparations to respond.
Seoul’s military first detected four short-range ballistic missiles launched off the North’s west coast around 6:51 a.m. local time. Then around 8:51 a.m., North Korea fired three more short-range ballistic missiles from near the North’s eastern coastal city of Wonsan. One of the three missiles crossed over the disputed maritime border, which Seoul’s military said was “unprecedented and unacceptable.” At 9:12 a.m., around 10 more missiles, including ballistic and surface-to-air missiles, were fired off the North’s east and west coasts. Later in the afternoon, six more ballistic and surface-to-air missiles were detected, according to Japanese and South Korean authorities.
The air-raid warning was issued around 8:55 a.m. at Ulleung Island, and news programs showed emergency alerts that read: “Evacuate to the nearest underground shelter and listen to broadcast.” The air-raid warnings were lifted at 2 p.m. local time.
A senior North Korean official warned that the U.S. and South Korea will pay ‘the most horrible price in history’ if they attempt to use armed forces against North Korea.
PHOTO: REPUBLIC OF KOREA AIR FORCE/EPA-EFE/SHUTTERSTOCK
The spree of launches came after North Korea demanded the U.S. and South Korea stop joint military drills, calling them a “ceaseless and reckless” military provocation. In recent months, Washington and Seoul have conducted a series of military exercises, including air drills that started Monday involving thousands of service members and hundreds of warplanes that staged mock attacks.
Pyongyang has blamed Washington and Seoul for escalating tensions on the Korean Peninsula by conducting military drills and warned of “more powerful follow-up measures,” according to a Tuesday state-media report. North Korea has called its recent missile tests and artillery firing a response to the drills, denouncing the joint military exercises as a rehearsal for invasion.
On Tuesday, a State Department spokesman said the joint military exercises were purely defensive in nature and reiterated that the U.S. harbors no hostile intent toward North Korea.
The following day, a senior North Korean official warned that the U.S. and South Korea will pay “the most horrible price in history” if they attempt to use armed forces against North Korea, according to a state-media report.
North Korea often issues angry statements blaming the U.S. and South Korea for hostile activities to internally gain support for continued provocations while also publicizing its justification to the international community, Pyongyang watchers say.
“It makes it easier for China and Russia to have North Korea’s back and blame the U.S. when North Korea does conduct its next nuclear test,” said Kim Yong-hyun, a professor of North Korean studies at Dongguk University in Seoul.
Before Wednesday, Pyongyang’s biggest single-day missile barrage was on June 5, when Pyongyang fired eight short-range missiles from four locations. Weapons experts say such tests are aimed at demonstrating the Kim regime’s ability to quickly deploy and launch missiles from various sites at once, making it difficult for the U.S. and South Korea to intercept.
North Korea refrained from conducting a missile test during China’s Communist Party congress in October, but fired artillery shells into the buffer zone along the maritime border several times. Pyongyang has conducted more than two dozen rounds of missile launches this year, the most it has ever done in a single year.
Washington and Seoul officials have said North Korea has completed preparations to conduct its seventh nuclear test, the first since 2017. Officials from Washington, Tokyo and Seoul warned of an unparalleled scale of response if Pyongyang conducts a nuclear test. The U.S. Department of Defense said a nuclear attack by North Korea would result in the “end of that regime,” in its National Defense Strategy report published last Thursday.
North Korea’s ballistic-missile launches violate United Nations Security Council resolutions and typically draw recriminations from the U.S., Japan and others. U.S.-led efforts to impose additional sanctions on North Korea have been blocked by Russia and China.
—Chieko Tsuneoka in Tokyo contributed to this article.
Write to Dasl Yoon at dasl.yoon@wsj.com
10. DP demands sacking of interior minister, national police chief
Not unexpected.
(LEAD) DP demands sacking of interior minister, national police chief | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 이민지 · November 2, 2022
(ATTN: RECASTS headline, lead; UPDATES with calls for dismissal of top officials; RESTRUCTURES)
SEOUL, Nov. 2 (Yonhap) -- The main opposition Democratic Party (DP) demanded the sacking of Interior Minister Lee Sang-min and national police chief Yoon Hee-keun following revelations that police did little even after receiving 11 calls about the dangerous level of crowds on the night of the Itaewon crowd crush.
"Minister Lee and Commissioner General Yoon should be sacked immediately," DP Rep. Jung Chung-rai said, also calling for criminal punishment of them.
Rep. Jang Kyung-tae also demanded Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon step down and urged President Yoon Suk-yeol to issue an apology and fire the interior minister.
Some, like Rep. Lee Soo-jin, called for a parliamentary probe into the case, claiming the Halloween crowd crush happened due to the negligence of the law enforcement agencies.
The ruling People Power Party (PPP) acknowledged the need to hold relevant officials accountable but voiced caution against taking disciplinary measures in a hasty manner.
"What is needed at the moment is not speed but proceeding in an accurate direction," Rep. Chung Jin-suk, the PPP's interim chief, said. "Taking disciplinary measures against officials should come after an accurate investigation into the cause of the accident and should be based on the findings."
mlee@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 이민지 · November 2, 2022
11. President Yoon’s “Audacious Plan”: Neither Audacious nor a Plan, but Still Right
Some of us will meet with about a dozen fellows from the Ministry of Unification this week. I plan to ask specifically about unification planning.
My recommendation to President Yoon: " A Three Part Plan To Enhance President Yoon’s North Korea Strategy: Toward A Free And Unified Korea" https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/09/a-three-part-plan-to-enhance-president-yoons-north-korea-strategy-toward-a-free-and-unified-korea/
President Yoon’s “Audacious Plan”: Neither Audacious nor a Plan, but Still Right
https://www.38north.org/2022/10/president-yoons-audacious-plan-neither-audacious-nor-a-plan-but-still-right/?mc_cid=32524a0239
With nearly daily reports of artillery fire within the DMZ and around the Northern Limit Line, and both Koreas engaged in military drills and missile launches, the security situation on the Korean Peninsula seems a far cry from the Olympic détente and summitry of 2018. South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol has kept the door to resuming diplomacy with North Korea open and offered an “audacious plan” of benefits if it would recommit to a denuclearization agenda. But so far, Pyongyang has rejected this proposal and is unlikely to change its mind any time soon, given the worsening security trends in the region. This stalemate illustrates how South Korea’s unification goals are often at odds with its broader security and foreign policies and how difficult it will be to get inter-Korean relations back on track as Seoul deepens its bilateral and values-based security alliances.
South Korea’s Unification vs. National Security Priorities
There is a curious gap in the reception of South Korea’s policy vis-à-vis North Korea. While the division of the peninsula is one of the most important topics for outside observers, it is far less so for South Koreans. The nuclear threat that North Korea poses is not completely ignored in the South, especially within the defense community, but it is not generally what defines inter-Korean relations. Instead, South Korean rhetoric tends to lead with the mantra of unification and the country’s self-perception as a divided state. However, none of these things really impact day-to-day life in South Korea and, as a general rule, do not significantly affect voters or important political decisions.
While there are marked differences in the way that different South Korean political parties and presidents execute policies related to North Korea, few election campaigns are based on this. When they are, it tends to result in defeat, as was demonstrated by the presidential campaign of former Unification Minister Chung Dong-young of the Uri Party.[1] Unsurprisingly, in South Korea’s recent presidential election, voters were more focused on domestic issues such as real estate prices, economic policies for the younger generations, the distinction of tasks between policy and prosecution, and even the alleged and real flaws of candidates and their spouses than on a unification policy.
Yoon’s “Audacious Plan”
The relative silence from Yoon’s camp in this year’s presidential campaign regarding unification policies is understandable. While Yoon did voice a more conservative policy on North Korea and unification, especially criticizing the silence of the former liberal government on human rights in North Korea, no concrete plans for unification policy were ever debated. The greatest stir came in response to North Korea’s hypersonic missile test earlier this year when Yoon called for a “preemptive strike” on the North in case of a potential attack. This was unsurprisingly reciprocated by North Korea in September in its announcement of a revised nuclear doctrine authorizing preemptive nuclear use.
Starting with the nomination and Parliamentary confirmation hearings for Kwon Yong-se as the new Minister of Unification, President Yoon’s new unification policy has begun to take shape. For conservatives and liberals alike, there were some surprises: contrary to all former governments, Minister Kwon and President Yoon did not begin by announcing a completely new doctrine, but instead said that unification is a long game of patience that requires bipartisan support. As such, the government indicated it would continue North Korea policy where the former Moon Jae-in administration stopped, and not start over from scratch. Even more surprisingly, Kwon announced that the government would decriminalize South Korean access to North Korean media. Since the establishment of the South’s National Security Law (NSL), reading North Korean newspapers, listening to North Korean radio, and trying to access the North’s online media, such as the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) and Rodong Sinmun, have all been forbidden.[2] Finally lifting those restrictions is something that many outside observers have wanted to see for a long time.
Following these initial announcements, even while North Korea stepped up its military activities—launching 40+ missiles so far this year and potentially resuming nuclear weapons testing—President Yoon announced a comprehensive strategy for North Korea and unification that he dubbed the “audacious plan” (sometimes referred to as the “audacious initiative” or “bold initiative”). He first mentioned it in his inauguration speech on May 10 and chose August 15–National Liberation Day—to elaborate more details.
Under the new plan, President Yoon promised large-scale food aid, power generation, infrastructure support, port and airport modernization, modernization in agriculture and the health sectors, and to help increase international investment in North Korea. However, the precondition to these benefits is for the North to stop developing nuclear weapons and make substantial progress on denuclearization. Subsequent statements clarified this does not mean complete denuclearization before the plan commences but should be seen as a tit-for-tat process with a predefined end goal.
Reactions to Yoon’s Audacious Plan
Yoon’s plan was immediately met with skepticism in Seoul open hostility by Pyongyang. Many observers, including North Korean media, pointed out the similarities between the “audacious plan” and former President Lee Myung-bak’s “Vision 3000: Denuclearization and Openness” plan. President Lee’s plan promised to increase North Korea’s per capita income, which at that time was less than $1,000 USD, to $3,000 USD, if North Korea agreed to denuclearization and opening up. Predictably, that plan was never implemented. Yoon’s “audacious initiative” might face the same fate as the North Korean government appears uninterested in economic improvements if it requires sacrificing regime security.
This does not even include denuclearization itself, even though the North Korean government propagates this as its key “success.” In reality, North Korea fears opening the country in the way that is necessary to achieve the kind of economic development South Korea envisages much more than denuclearization. This would require open borders; a free (or much freer) inflow of information and, thereby, empowerment of people vis-à-vis the government; and the provision of a new economic system that will outperform the current, run-down and inefficient hybrid economy.
As such, it is no surprise that North Korea’s official response to the plan was negative. Three days after President Yoon’s speech on August 15, 2022, Kim Jong Un’s sister, Kim Yo Jong, who in the past years rose to prominence with aggressive statements directed toward South Korea, lashed out against Yoon’s “audacious plan” calling it nothing more than a “replica” of the plan of the “traitor Lee Myung-bak,” and that no one would trade away their destiny “for corn cake.” Despite her choice of words, she fully grasped that opening up the country and embracing a market economy would shake the destiny of the North Korean regime. As peaceful as South Korea would like its aid to be, it would invariably erode the power base of the ruling elite in Pyongyang.
In early September, the Supreme People’s Assembly (SPA) of North Korea announced the adoption of a new nuclear law that allows Kim Jong Un to “immediately” use nuclear force if an imminent nuclear or non-nuclear attack on the leadership is feared, as well as automatic nuclear use in case the leadership is incapacitated due to attack. Not only is this an update to the much more limited nuclear law from 2013, it can be viewed as a final answer to Yoon’s “audacious plan”: “There will be no nuclear negotiations with South Korea, full stop.”
However, this does not mean that the “audacious plan” should necessarily be considered dead in the water. In fact, it is not so much a plan as it is a vague promise and, in its current iteration, is not very audacious. For two decades, South Korea has maintained a $1 billion USD inter-Korean cooperation fund that is not really used for much more than some costly and flashy opening ceremonies of projects that never really take off or are soon buried. In addition, billions of South Korean won (KRW) of this fund are provided to local and regional governing bodies, research institutes, and companies for potential projects that never seem to come to fruition.
The audacious plan is not actually signaling that South Korea expects North Korea will decide to give up nukes for economic promises, but instead is an acknowledgment that North Korea is unlikely to give up anything. As such, the “‘audacious” part is not something that is currently realistic, but a vague idea of massive aid for North Koreans, which is designed to trigger the fantasy of the North Korean population. Whether it is $2,000, $3,000 or $4,000 USD per-capita income, or simply massive aid and investment, is irrelevant. Nothing South Korea could offer would sway the North Korean government, so long as it remains stable.
At the same time, this does not mean South Korea should simply wait and do nothing at all. South Korea plans to better coordinate with the US and other international partners, including China, about the situation on the Korean Peninsula. This will involve the Ministry of Unification but will include a larger role for the Foreign and Defense Ministries as well, as evidenced by the revival of the long-stalled Extended Deterrence Strategy and Consultation Group, a vice-ministerial meeting of foreign affairs and defense officials of the US and South Korea.
Under former President Moon’s administration, the alliance with the US was never in doubt, even if there was sometimes friction between Washington and Seoul in their negotiations with Pyongyang. In fact, the gap between Moon’s promises to the North and his de facto siding with the US regarding security questions was one of the reasons for the failure of his détente policy. However, the Yoon government’s clear positioning of South Korea in the field of democracies and market economies, which are sometimes misleadingly lumped together as “the West,” is new and gives the impression of deeper security cooperation not just with the US, but across the values-based spectrum as well. This means any talks between the two Koreas are unlikely for now, but if they did resume, Seoul would be a more formidable negotiating partner.
New Opportunities for Inter-Korean Exchanges?
Despite the worsening security environment, there are still small but largely unexplored possibilities for exchanges. At the yearly Korean Global Forum for Peace, which the South Korean Ministry of Unification organized in early September 2022 in Seoul, almost one out of four sessions dealt with “green détente”—inter-Korean and international cooperation in the fields of environment, afforestation and sustainable forestry, nature conservation and migratory birds, rural development, biodiversity and other climate change related issues. In some of these fields, actual cooperation can still take place internationally, often with South and North Korean participation. While these are not the same as inter-Korean joint projects, they can serve to build trust between the two countries and provide the opportunity to explore other avenues for further formal or informal cooperation.
Additionally, in the new South Korean government, there seems to be a greater acceptance of new methods of indirect cooperation through trilateral or multilateral frameworks. This is why South Korea has invested, sometimes heavily, in regional and international networks in fields such as forestry, water management, etc., in the past years. For now, the returns are meager, but they might pay off down the road.
One of the problems of inter-Korean ties in the past, particularly in the later phase of President Roh Moo-hyun’s Sunshine Policy, and President Moon Jae-in’s rapprochement policy, was the easy and eager acceptance of North Korea’s mantra of “by our people alone.”[3] Unification policy under Roh Moo-hyun was kept separate from security and foreign policy as much as possible—one was not informing the other. In fact, they often ran in very different directions, with unification policy trying to smooth over differences with North Korea, while foreign and defense policy tried to maintain the alliance with the US.
While a separation of civil, non-state exchanges between the two Koreas from high politics would be highly desirable, efforts on the unification front often clash with South Korea’s broader security and foreign policy priorities. A clear understanding that the unification policy is not only an inter-Korean endeavor but also has an international dimension might help overcome this dichotomy of independent and contradictory alliance policies with the US and unification policies with North Korea. Going forward, as I argued before here, creating more opportunities for civil society engagement of the North, independent of political approaches and rhetoric, should be encouraged. The decriminalization of reading and watching North Korean media is a first, necessary step for that, and hopefully, more far-reaching steps will follow.
Conclusion
South Korean administrations and politicians have frequently attempted to reach out to the North, tried to persuade them into cooperating, and appealed—in often desperate pleas—to them, but North Korea has always turned a cold shoulder. As such, maybe, for now, the best plan of action would be for South Korea to leave North Korea alone.
While Yoon’s audacious plan is neither audacious nor a plan, it is a necessary dose of reality that the Korean Peninsula currently needs. Perhaps then, a truly audacious plan can eventually come into being.
- [1]
- The Uri Party was the predecessor of the current Democratic Party.
- [2]
- Since the 1950s, the NSL has been used to prevent ideological inroads from North Korea into the South. Under South Korea’s past autocratic governments, it was used to quell those who opposed and accused the government of embracing communist ideologies. However, as the differences between the two Koreas’ economic, social and cultural developments widened, the law lost all of its former meaning.
- [3]
- Lee Jong-Seok, one of the architects of Roh’s version of the Sunshine Policy, offers a fascinating account in his book Peace on a Knife’s Edge: The Inside Story of Roh Moo-hyun’s North Korea Policy (Washington, DC: Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center, distributed by Brookings Institution Press, 2017). Clearly, for him, policies like the “autonomous defense policy” independent from the US are an accomplishment, not a problem.
12. Nuclear Test? Why North Korea Could Start a New Crisis
Yes we should assume a nuclear test is coming. But it does not need to start a new crisis.
Excerpt:
Pyongyang was quick to condemn the week-long drills and demanded that the U.S. and South Korea stop the large-scale military exercises. North Korea called them an unnecessary provocation, and warned that it could result in “more powerful follow-up measures” by the North Korean military.
“The situation in the Korean Peninsula and its vicinity has entered the serious confrontation phase of power again due to the ceaseless and reckless military moves of the U.S. and South Korea,” North Korea’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement carried on the state-run KCNA news agency.
The Ministry added that it was “ready to take all necessary measures for defending its sovereignty, people’s security and territorial integrity from outside military threats. If the U.S. continuously persists in grave military provocations, the DPRK will take into account more powerful follow-up measures.”
Nuclear Test? Why North Korea Could Start a New Crisis
19fortyfive.com · by Peter Suciu · November 1, 2022
What is North Korea Planning? On Monday, the United States and South Korea began one of their largest combined military air drills to date. More than 240 warplanes staged mock attacks 24 hours a day for the better part of this week. Dubbed “Vigilant Storm 23,” the training event, which runs through Friday, will include about 1,600 sorties, the highest ever for the annual exercise.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un chairs a Worker’s Party meeting on coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak response in this undated photo released by North Korea’s Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) on May 12, 2022. KCNA via REUTERS.
Designed to practice wartime missions, roles, and tasks in an effort to enhance the combat-readiness and survivability of U.S. Air Force and Republic of Korea Air Force (ROKAF) aircraft, Vigilant Storm will include variants of the F-35 stealth fighter from both the United States and South Korea.
Thousands of service members from ROKAF, the U.S. Air Force, U.S. Marine Corps, U.S. Navy, and U.S. Army are participating in this training. Aircraft are flying out of several ROKAF bases, as well as Osan and Kunsan Air Bases and Camp Humphreys.
Marine Corps F-35Bs are working alongside South Korean F-35A and F-15 jets. They will be joined by U.S. Navy EA-18 electronic warfare and Air Force U-2 reconnaissance aircraft. The Royal Australian Air Force’s 33 Squadron has also deployed a KC-30A air refueler to the Republic of Korea. It will train with ROKAF and U.S. Air Force aircraft.
“(South Korea) and U.S. Air Forces will work together with the joint services to perform major air missions such as close air support, defensive counter air, and emergency air operations 24 hours a day during the training period,” the U.S. Air Force announced. “Support forces on the ground will also train their base defense procedures and survivability in case of attack.”
Previously called the Combined Flying Training Event, this annual exercise takes several months of planning and preparation with units throughout the Korean peninsula and beyond. This year’s event will strengthen the operational and tactical capabilities of combined air operations and enhance the strong combined defense posture.
North Korea’s Response
Pyongyang was quick to condemn the week-long drills and demanded that the U.S. and South Korea stop the large-scale military exercises. North Korea called them an unnecessary provocation, and warned that it could result in “more powerful follow-up measures” by the North Korean military.
“The situation in the Korean Peninsula and its vicinity has entered the serious confrontation phase of power again due to the ceaseless and reckless military moves of the U.S. and South Korea,” North Korea’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement carried on the state-run KCNA news agency.
The Ministry added that it was “ready to take all necessary measures for defending its sovereignty, people’s security and territorial integrity from outside military threats. If the U.S. continuously persists in grave military provocations, the DPRK will take into account more powerful follow-up measures.”
Washington and Seoul believe Pyongyang could resume testing of its nuclear weapons for the first time since 2017, and Vigilant Storm is part of the allies’ efforts to deter North Korea.
Just last Friday, South Korean troops finished the 12-day Hoguk 22 field exercises, which featured mock amphibious landings and river crossings, including some drills with U.S. forces.
A Senior Editor for 1945, Peter Suciu is a Michigan-based writer. He has contributed to more than four dozen magazines, newspapers, and websites with over 3,000 published pieces over a twenty-year career in journalism. He regularly writes about military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, and international affairs. Peter is also a Contributing Writer for Forbes. You can follow him on Twitter: @PeterSuciu.
19fortyfive.com · by Peter Suciu · November 1, 2022
13. North Korea Warns of ‘Consequences’ for South Korea-US Joint Military Exercises
Kim has a greater fear of the Korean people in the north than he does of the ROK/US military. We need to exploit that.
Kim's focus on exercises is two fold but not about security guarantees for the north. He needs the exercises to portray an external threat to justify the Korean people's sacrifice and suffering. He is also focusing on the exercises to make them end to undermine military readiness to give him a military advantage as well as to split the ROK/US alliance so that it will drive US forces from the peninsula if they cannot maintain readiness through training. In Kim's calculus this will provide him with a military advantage should he decide to use force to unify the peninsula under northern domination.
We must not give into the demand to end exercises. Giving into Kim will cause him to judge his political warfare and blackmail diplomacy strategies a success. We must understand the nature, objectives, and strategy of the Kim family regime.
Going back to the first point, this is why we need to plan and execute a comprehensive information and influence campaign. That will exert tremendous pressure on Kim.
North Korea Warns of ‘Consequences’ for South Korea-US Joint Military Exercises
On the same day South Korea and the U.S. kicked off a joint military air drill, North Korea released a statement threatening to take follow-up measures.
thediplomat.com · by Mitch Shin · November 1, 2022
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Korea Central News Agency (KCNA), one of North Korea’s main state-controlled media, published a statement from a spokesperson for the North’s Foreign Ministry on Monday, criticizing South Korea-U.S. joint air drills.
The ongoing exercises, called Vigilant Storm, will incorporate about 240 warplanes, including F-35 stealth fighters from South Korea and the United States. The exercises kicked off on Monday and will run until Friday.
North Korea called Vigilant Storm “the largest-ever U.S.-South Korea joint air drill.”
“This drill involving more than hundreds of fighters of different missions such as F-35Bs based in Japan is a war drill for aggression mainly aimed at striking the strategic targets of the DPRK in case of contingency in the Korean Peninsula,” the spokesperson said in the statement. (DPRK is an acronym of North Korea’s official name: Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.)
The spokesperson also said that North Korea “is ready to take all necessary measures for defending its sovereignty, people’s security and territorial integrity from outside military threats” and will take “more powerful follow-up measures” if the United States “continuously persists in the grave military provocations.”
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This week’s Vigilant Storm is the first South Korea-U.S. joint air drill involving U.S. F-35B fighters. South Korea and the United States extended their joint military drills in the wake of the North’s spate of ballistic missile launches this year. Meanwhile, Pyongyang justified its latest launches as a response to previous South Korea-U.S. military exercises.
“The joint military exercises of the U.S. and its vassal forces have the more clear [sic] aggressive nature than any other ones everywhere else of the world in terms of the period, scale, contents and density,” the spokesperson said. He called the drills this year “the chief culprit in destroying peace and security.”
The spokesperson also claimed that “the U.S. nuclear war scenarios against the DPRK has entered the final stage.” He also reiterated Pyongyang’s claim that its military activities are “self-defensive” as “the U.S. is staging such war exercises for aggression” in the region.
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While stating that the South Korea-U.S. joint military drills are aiming at “occupying the territory and depth of the opposite party,” the spokesperson again recalled Pyongyang’s claim that “the recent military drills by units of the Korean People’s Army were carried out under the unstable security circumstances created by the U.S. and South Korea.”
South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol has proposed an “audacious initiative” to entice North Korea to take steps for denuclearization in exchange for economic benefits. However, Kim Yo Jong, the powerful sister of the North’s leader Kim Jong Un, belittled Yoon’s policy, ruling out the possibility of engaging in inter-Korean dialogue until the end of his term in 2027.
Since U.S. President Joe Biden took office in 2021, Washington has consistently urged Pyongyang to return to the negotiating table with Seoul. However, Pyongyang has not responded to their gestures since the failed Hanoi summit in 2019. North Korea made clear that it would only consider renewing the deadlocked nuclear talks if Washington makes concessions first. The desired concessions include lifting the devastating economic sanctions and halting the joint military drills between South Korea and the United States. The U.S. would not make either move before the North takes measures to withdraw its nuclear weapons.
In the 2022 Nuclear Posture Review released by the U.S. Defense Department last week, it clearly stated that the Kim regime would not survive if “any nuclear attack by North Korea against the United States or its allies and partners” is made. As North Korea codified a new law to legitimize the preemptive use of its nuclear weapons under certain conditions in September, South Korea and the United States have been closely coordinating to strengthen their deterrence capabilities against the North’s nuclear and missile threats.
North Korea has responded, however, by upping its aggression. On Monday, the foreign ministry spokesperson warned that the U.S. “must be prepared for paying an equal price for its attempt to use military force against the DPRK.”
“If the U.S. does not want any serious developments not suited to its security interests, it should stop the useless and ineffective war exercises at one. If not, it will have to totally take the blame for all the consequences,” the spokesperson warned.
CONTRIBUTING AUTHOR
Mitch Shin
Mitch Shin is Chief Koreas Correspondent for The Diplomat and a non-resident Research Fellow of the Institute for Security & Development Policy (ISDP), Stockholm Korea Center.
thediplomat.com · by Mitch Shin · November 1, 2022
14. North Korea fires 23 missiles, one landing off South Korean coast for first time
I think this is the final count. There have been a lot of reports but few are/were able to provide the total number of missiles launched yesterday.
North Korea fires 23 missiles, one landing off South Korean coast for first time
Reuters · by Josh Smith
- Summary
- One missile lands south of disputed inter-Korean maritime border
- Air raid warning issued on S.Korean island
- S.Korea president vows N.Korea will 'pay the price'
- N.Korea calls allied military drills 'provocative'
SEOUL, Nov 2 (Reuters) - North Korea fired at least 23 missiles into the sea on Wednesday, including one that landed less than 60 km (40 miles) off South Korea's coast, which the South's President Yoon Suk-yeol described as "territorial encroachment".
It was the first time a ballistic missile had landed near the South's waters since the peninsula was divided in 1945, and the most missiles fired by the North in a single day. South Korea issued rare air raid warnings and launched its own missiles in response.
The missile landed outside South Korea's territorial waters, but south of the Northern Limit Line (NLL), a disputed inter-Korean maritime border.
South Korean warplanes fired three air-to-ground missiles into the sea north across the NLL in response, the South's military said. An official said the weapons used included an AGM-84H/K SLAM-ER, which is a U.S.-made "stand-off" precision attack weapon that can fly for up to 270 km (170 miles) with a 360-kg (800-lb) warhead.
The South's launches came after Yoon's office vowed a "swift and firm response".
"President Yoon Suk-yeol noted North Korea's provocation today was an effective act of territorial encroachment by a missile intruding the NLL for the first time since (the two Koreas') division," his office said in a statement.
When asked whether the missile was flying towards the South's territory and should have been intercepted, a senior presidential official said: "Strictly speaking, it did not land in our territory but in the Exclusive Economic Zone under our jurisdiction, therefore it was not subject to interception."
AIR RAID SIRENS
That missile was one of three short-range ballistic missiles fired from the North Korean coastal area of Wonsan into the sea, South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said. The JCS later said as many as 14 other missiles of various types had been fired from North Korea's east and west coasts.
The JCS said at least one of the missiles landed 26 km south of the NLL, 57 km from the South Korean city of Sokcho, on the east coast, and 167 km from the island of Ulleung, where air raid warnings were sounded.
"We heard the siren at around 8:55 a.m. and all of us in the building went down to the evacuation place in the basement," an Ulleung county official told Reuters. "We stayed there until we came upstairs at around 9:15 after hearing that the projectile fell into the high seas."
The North also fired more than 100 rounds of artillery from its east coast into a military buffer zone established in a military agreement with the South, South Korea's military said.
The firing violates a 2018 agreement banning hostile acts in border areas, the JCS said.
North and South Korea are technically still at war because their 1950-53 conflict ended in a truce, not a peace treaty.
Nuclear-armed North Korea has tested a record number of missiles this year, and officials in Seoul and Washington say the North has completed technical preparations to conduct a nuclear weapon test for the first time since 2017.
[1/5] People watch a TV broadcasting a news report on North Korea firing a ballistic missile off its east coast, in Seoul, South Korea, November 2, 2022. REUTERS/Kim Hong-Ji
North Korea continues to test ballistic missiles despite multiple United Nations Security Council resolutions that ban all ballistic and nuclear tests by the country
The launches came just hours after Pyongyang demanded that the United States and South Korea stop large-scale military exercises, saying such "military rashness and provocation can be no longer tolerated".
Despite Yoon's declaring a national week of mourning after more than 150 people were killed in a weekend crowd surge in Seoul, the United States and South Korea began one of their largest combined military air drills on Monday. Dubbed Vigilant Storm, the exercises involve hundreds of warplanes from both sides staging mock attacks 24 hours a day. read more
MAJOR MILITARY DRILLS
North Korea, which for years has pursued missile and nuclear programmes in defiance of U.N. sanctions, had said that a recent flurry of launches were in response to allied drills.
Pak Jong Chon, secretary of the Central Committee of North Korea's ruling Workers' Party, said in a statement on Wednesday that the number of warplanes involved in Vigilant Storm proved the exercise was "aggressive and provocative" and specifically targeted North Korea. He said even its name imitated the U.S.-led Operation Desert Storm against Iraq in the 1990s.
"The hostile forces' inordinate moves for military confrontation have created a grave situation on the Korean peninsula," Pak said in a statement carried by state news agency KCNA.
On Tuesday in Washington, U.S. State Department spokesperson Ned Price said that the drills were "purely defensive in nature" and that the United States had made clear to North Korea that it harboured no hostile intent.
Price added that the United States and its allies had also made clear that there would be "profound costs and profound consequences" if North Korea resumed nuclear testing. He did not elaborate.
When asked about the missile launch, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian told a regular briefing in Beijing that safeguarding peace and stability on the peninsula was in everyone's interest.
"We hope that all parties concerned will stick to the direction of political settlement of the Peninsula issue, meet each other halfway, and prevent the situation from escalating," he said.
South Korea's Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport said that because of the launches, some air routes over the sea between North Korea and Japan would be closed until Thursday.
Japanese Defence Minister Yasukazu Hamada said the government believed at least two ballistic missiles had been launched from North Korea, one flying east and another southeast.
The first flew 150 km to a maximum altitude of approximately 150 km, while the second covered a range of 200 km to a maximum altitude of 100 km, he told reporters in Tokyo on Wednesday morning.
Reuters Graphics
North Korea's actions threaten the peace and stability of Japan, the wider region, as well as the broader international community, Hamada said.
Reporting by Soo-hyang Choi, Choonsik Yoo and Josh Smith; Additional reportng by David Brunnstrom in Washington, Sakura Murakami in Tokyo, and Liz Lee in Beijing; Editing by Raju Gopalakrishnan, Nick Macfie and Alex Richardson
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Reuters · by Josh Smith
De Oppresso Liber,
David Maxwell
Senior Fellow, Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation
Senior Advisor, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy
Editor, Small Wars Journal
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
Phone: 202-573-8647
email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com
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