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And how can we improve those chances?
Those are questions I have been trying to answer for the last ten years since publishing my first book that I wrote with my son Jason.
In 2003, when I first began learning about the crucial importance of our food choices, I thought that if we could just get most people to adopt a plant-based diet that we could buy ourselves enough time to tackle and solve the more challenging issues that lie between us and living sustainable lives.
So, how are we doing on that meat reduction project? Not good. The global annual production of meat has risen 125 million tons -- over what it was when I went plant-based eighteen years ago.
Beyond our inability to pick the "low hanging fruit" by simply changing what we eat -- we're also missing the boat in every category of our grossly unsustainable civilization.
Our population continues to grow by six million people a month, we're burning more fossil fuels than ever, CO2 levels in the atmosphere keep steadily rising, and we continue to destroy millions of acres of rainforests every year to grow food for animals -- all while the leaders of the largest countries of the world seem to be completely oblivious to the dire crisis in which we find ourselves.
With an additional six million people joining our ranks every month, where do we think all of those people are going to work in the future? Why do I ask? Because we're talking about an international economy where robots are taking more jobs away from humans with each passing year.
There will be fewer and fewer jobs that a robot cannot do better.
I think ultimately we will have to have some kind of universal basic income. I don't think we're gonna have a choice.
Now, four years after those remarks, we are beginning to see his forecast coming true. We all know that we're losing jobs to robots, we've just not come to grips with what that will mean fifty years from now.
If we keep adding six million people each month -- while AI is taking more jobs away at the same time, the world will soon have many billions of people out of work. And all those people will need food, clothing and housing.
So, it begs the question: What is the right number of humans on planet Earth when it comes to optimizing the health of the biosphere that keeps us alive?
Hint. It's a lot closer to one billion than it is to the eight billion that we're now approaching. And, in terms of saving our civilization, it will be much easier to save one or two billion people -- rather than try to provide food, shelter and a reasonable quality life for eight or ten billion.
So what are we going to do? As we ponder all of these issues, Dr. E.O. Wilson shares a bit of guarded optimism in this quote from his 2014 book shown here.
Human beings are not wicked by nature. We have enough intelligence, goodwill, generosity and enterprise to turn Earth into a paradise both for ourselves and for the biosphere that gave us birth.
We can plausibly accomplish that goal, at least be well on the way, by the end of the present century. The problem holding everything up thus far is that Homo sapiens is an innately dysfunctional species.
Addressing our dysfunctionality. As of mid-2021, what lies between us and sustainable living on planet Earth? It goes far beyond just shifting rapidly to a plant-based diet.
I begin with the food because it is, without a doubt, the biggest and fastest "bang for the buck" out of all of the possible initiatives we must eventually undertake. To be sure, we should begin working on all of the items below at the same time, knowing that some tasks will take longer than others to have much impact.
Here is my short list for moving rapidly toward living in harmony with nature on this planet.
To-Do List for Human Survival
- By 2026, totally replace the animal food industry with wholesome, health promoting, plant-based foods for all of humanity (Dr. Sailesh Rao explains how)
- Replace capitalism with a score-keeping system that rewards behaviors (by people, governments and businesses) that actually improve the biosphere that keeps us alive.
- Re-wild most of the world's forest land that has been destroyed to grow food for animals that we eat
- Develop totally new "systems" of living for humans that sharply reduce our carbon footprint while raising the quality of life for the most people. (This entire process is described in our 2020 book, OUTCRY.)
- Begin to lower the global population as steadily and as quickly as humanely possible
- Leverage the power of AI to deliver a reasonably comfortable lifestyle for every human being
As an "innately dysfunctional species, how can we be expected to solve all of those six mammoth projects on this list? Where do we go from here?
Once more, let's refer back to Dr. Wilson for a candid assessment of where we now stand and what is holding us back. His words may help us think differently about our future as we strive to figure out a way to survive and thrive longterm on this planet.
A few selected paragraphs from this 2014 book. It was a life changer for me.
We humans are addicted to tribal conflict, which is harmless and entertaining if sublimated into team sports, but deadly when expressed as real-world ethnic, religious and ideological struggles.
There are other hereditary biases. Too paralyzed with self-absorption to protect the rest of life, we continue to tear down the natural environment, our species' irreplaceable and most precious heritage. And it is still taboo to bring up population policies aiming for for an optimum people density, geographic distribution, and age distribution.
Ou leaders, religious, political and business, mostly accept supernatural explanations of the human existence. Even if privately skeptical, they have little interest in opposing religious leaders and unnecessarily stirring up the populace, from who they draw power and privilege.
Scientists, who might contribute to a more realistic world-view, are especially disappointing. Largely yeomen, they are intellectual dwarves content to stay within the narrow specialties for which they were trained and are paid.
Seven years have passed since Dr. Wilson wrote The Meaning of Human Existence and all of our inherent problems described in that book still exist. Most are much worse than they were in 2014.
He wrote another book five years later -- still focused on the same theme. From Genesis -- published in 2019 when he was 89 years of age -- he explains our conundrum in blunt terms:
All questions of philosophy that address the human condition come down to three: what are we, what created us, and what do we wish ultimately to become. The all-important answer to the third question, the destiny we seek, requires an accurate answer to the first two.
By and large, philosophers have lacked confirmable answers to the first two questions, which concern the deep prehuman and human past, thereby remaining unable to answer the third question, which addresses the human future.
As I now approach the end of a long career studying the biology of social behavior in animals and humans, I've come better to understand why these existential questions defy introspection by even the wisest of thinkers, and, more importantly, why they have been so easily enslaved by religious and political dogma.
For most of history, organized religions have claimed sovereignty over the meaning of human existence. For their founders and leaders, the enigma has been relatively easy to solve. The gods put us on Earth, then they told us how to behave.
Why should people around the world continue to believe one fantasy over another out of the more than four thousand that exist on Earth? The answer is tribalism, and, as I will show, tribalism is one consequence of the way humanity originated.
What do you see in the chart below? Are you surprised at any of the numbers?
So where do we go from here? The above chart suggests that, if we wish to maximize our chances for human survival, we must begin basing everything we do on verifiable data and proven scientific facts.
And for that to happen, we must remove personal bias, whether political or religious, from all decision-making processes going forward. As such, it seems to me like a "blinding flash of the obvious" regarding what we must do:
We must urgently begin leveraging the mind-boggling power of artificial intelligence -- a timely field of study which may be reaching maturity at just the right time.
In a nutshell, here is the "big picture" question that the best of artificial intelligence can help us answer quickly:
How do we synthesize all of the knowledge in the world into a coherent action plan for a way of living that has the greatest likelihood of ensuring our long-term survival as a species?
As outlined below, I am envisioning a special, multi-national task force that will urgently begin gathering data and generating solutions for all issues that threaten our longterm survival.
Now that we've digested the rare wisdom of E.O. Wilson when it comes to the innate dysfunctionality of our species, what have we learned? The simple fact that we Homo sapiens are not properly "wired" when it comes to building such a coalition.
For that we're going to need a great deal of help from AI in order to quickly gather and rationally process the largest database in the world regarding all of the "known" data that is crucial to our survival as a species.
Let's begin by revisiting my simple, six-point list.
To-Do List for Human Survival
- By 2026, totally replace the animal food industry with wholesome, health promoting, plant-based foods for all of humanity (Dr. Sailesh Rao explains how)
- Replace capitalism with a score-keeping system that rewards behaviors (by people, governments and businesses) that actually improve the biosphere that keeps us alive.
- Re-wild most of the world's forest land that has been destroyed to grow food for animals that we eat
- Develop totally new "systems" of living for humans that sharply reduce our carbon footprint while raising the quality of life for the most people. (This entire process is described in our 2020 book, OUTCRY.)
- Begin to lower the global population as steadily and as quickly as humanely possible
- Leverage the power of AI to deliver a reasonably comfortable lifestyle for every human being
I think it's time for us to fully-leverage the steadily increasing power of AI (artificial intelligence) help us sort out the crucial steps we will be taking in this decade.
With a properly loaded AI network on the verge of operating at the AGI (artificial general intelligence) level, a well-prepared multi-national team could quickly gather and analyze tons of rapidly changing information -- all while generating massive amounts of carefully generated recommendations necessary to execute the above list -- and much, much more -- before it's too late.
So, how do we get that done?
Good Old American Leadership
Since the USA is still, at least for now, the most powerful nation on Earth, I propose that we take the lead. That said, If I were President Biden, I would immediately announce the formation of a special, multi-national task force to begin leveraging the heretofore untapped power of artificial intelligence in the greatest possible manner.
With the world's cultural, racial, religious and economic biases cast aside -- and with an unlimited budget, the Task Force would immediately start taking action based on the lightning fast, error-free, un-biased analysis of scientific facts. And armed with those powerful facts, it will be their job, along with the president, to enlist the support of all other nations.
The most important role that President Biden would play is the selection, and complete backing, of the leader of that all-important task force -- whose success I believe is crucial to the future of humanity. I could see him putting his hands on Mayor Pete's shoulders and saying something like this...
"Son, you now have the most important job in the history of humanity -- and you will have the complete support of the Federal government as your team follows the science in pursuit of maximizing our chances for survival as a species."
Pete Buttigieg, Secretary of Transportation
Once again, I can't wait to see what a superbly intelligent and creative individual like Pete Buttigieg could do in such a wide-open, crucially important, leadership role.
I have always loved listening to him talk. It's like he thinks in paragraphs that make incredibly complicated matters appear simple. (Mayor Pete is also featured in an earlier SOS Memo: (Promising new "Sunrise for Humanity")
For the record, we all know that this so-called "civilization engineering" is not very likely to happen anytime soon. But what if certain unforeseen events actually serve to help ensure the success of such an initiative?
We have learned a great deal from the Covid experience -- things that no one could have ever imagined two years ago. Maybe some other huge emergency will come along that will force us to take a hard look at some of the logic of the envisioned action plan expressed in this SOS Memo.
As stated last week -- It turns out that urgently cutting back on our consumption of animal-based foods is STILL, by far, the quickest, least expensive and safest way to slow down climate change. But that step alone is not nearly enough to save our civilization and our species.
That's where the special AI-Enabled Multi-National Task Force comes in. They would immediately start gathering data and analyzing all of the most crucial facts and trends in the world -- as they relate to our future as a species. And their progress would be shared with the international public every day.
Finally, the rapidly unfolding future of our civilization would be front page news
The Bottom Line. Let's revisit the two questions asked at the beginning of this SOS Memo: What are our chances of for survival as a species? And, how can we improve those chances?
In answer to the first one. If we continue with business as usual in terms of population growth, addiction to animal-based foods, world-wide capitalism, and no globally-coordinated effort to get our act together in the next five years, I would put our survival chances at less than 10%.
As for the second question, I believe that we have the wherewithal to raise our survival chances to well over 60% -- by urgently beginning a process something like what I have described throughout this memo. But, short of some horribly-disruptive global catastrophe that thrusts us into action, I don't think we will.
Why is my "best case" estimate not closer to a 100% chance that we will survive this century as a species? It's because many of the world's top "big picture" scientists have concluded that we have already crossed too many critical tipping points relative to the declining ability of Earth's biosphere to keep us alive.
Ending on a good note. I would like to share some calming words from my hero, Dr. James Lovelock, originator of the GAIA Theory and perhaps the greatest "big picture" thinker in the history of humanity.
Dr. Lovelock is alive and well at 101 but was only 94 when he was featured in this 29-minute video entitled GAIA, an Interview with James Lovelock. I found his "big picture" commentary somewhat soothing.
Here are his final words of wisdom in that GAIA interview: his answer to the question:
Is there any hope for the human race?
Everything in the universe is mortal. Even stars, even galaxies. They're all mortal, they're all part of the game called the second law of thermodynamics. Everything runs down, grows older and dies. And, if that seems gloomy, think of it the other way around.
If it weren't doing that, you wouldn't have any energy to do anything. We have to adapt. Adaptation is the thing humans have to do and the thing they most have to remember is to try and preserve civilization.
That's our most precious asset and we're a huge benefit to the world that way. We tend to think of ourselves as some sort of plague or destructive agency.
We are, but at the same time, we are something wonderful. After all those three and a half billion years of evolution, the Earth at last has something with intelligence and communication -- which is part of it.
Because we are part of it, we are natural. We shouldn't think of ourselves as separate -- and through our eyes, the Earth is seen for the very first time from space.
What an incredibly beautiful planet she is. And that's worthwhile. Well worthwhile.
What can you do? If you have read our 2020 book, OUTCRY, the six steps to human survival mentioned earlier will be somewhat familiar to you. Maybe you will do the world a favor and refer that book to others.
I am confident that if a few million people carefully read and digested OUTCRY, that there might at least be a more robust conversation taking place, a conversation about our grossly unsustainable way of living in the developed world -- and what it will take to get us focused on maximizing our chances for survival.
To be sure, we've got to do a lot more than change what we eat and OUTCRY helps explain the "why" and the"how" of that proposition.
To our knowledge, OUTCRY remains the only book ever published that features an envisioned, totally-green, ultra-sustainable, super-desirable, future way of living for humans -- along with ideas for how we might get there as quickly as possible.
Want to send a link of this memo to a friend? It is #107 on this list of SOS Memos. Finally, contact me directly at the email address below with any questions you may have.
PS: Free Zoom Conferences. In the interest of jump-starting the urgently-needed global "conversation" about the dilemma we are in, I am now offering to conduct private Zoom conferences free of charge to groups of almost any size. I look forward to ZOOM-ing with you and your group sometime soon.
In preparation for those Zoom visits, I have developed a one-hour format consisting of an opening statement followed by a 20-minute slide show and then ending with a discussion and Q&A with the attendees. The sessions you organize will be far more interesting and productive if attendees have read OUTCRY in advance.
Our book, for a host of environmental reasons, is only available as an e-book on Amazon. As such, it contains hyperlinks to hundreds of references and videos, is less expensive, does not kill any trees and does not have to be manufactured and delivered.
Here are a few of them where you can see how my vision has evolved since that first "creative idea" on 9-21-18:
As always, I am just trying to spark a global conversation about what is needed. By sharing a vision of what I believe is possible, I hope to influence others to think bigger, better and bolder.
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What else can you do to help? Two things:
1. Live as greenly as possible while doing all that you can to raise the awareness of "big picture" solutions that are crucially necessary for saving our civilization.
2. Share this BSB and my "Mama Ain't Happy" BSB with prominent journalists, thought leaders and/or elected officials whom you respect. They need to learn a lot more about the many reasons why Mama ain't happy.
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