THIS WEEK IN WASHINGTON
October 7, 2022
Gold Dome Report
by Jesse Weathington, Partner and Georgia Group Director

Decent football weather has finally arrived, and it being an even-numbered year, that means “the home stretch” of the General Election is upon us. Not that anyone who has glanced at a screen lately has been allowed to forget. The swing-state status we now “enjoy” means that once again an ocean of campaign cash is sloshing through the airwaves, internet tubes, and USPS in the hopes that 14th mailer will at last drive the point home. Should have bought that television station…
 
October didn’t wait around to spring the surprise, with explosive charges rocking Hershel Walker’s beleaguered campaign to unseat Senator Rev. Raphael Warnock. If Walker is somehow able to shrug all this off and eke out a win, it will be the result of the Republican equivalent of what used to be called “yellow dog” Democrats – folks who would vote for literally anyone except a Republican. If he loses it will be because of folks that probably vote for Kemp but skip this race, crossover, or vote for the Libertarian. Much press coverage of individual voter reaction to the Daily Beast abortion story has featured quotes suggesting that many likely Walker voters simply don’t care what he says or has done. Warnock has led Walker all year and seems likely to maintain his poll position heading into the election – it remains to be seen if the Senator can avoid a run-off. I have a hunch the Libertarian candidate may wind up playing spoiler again and trigger a (mercifully) shortened run-off between Warnock and Walker.
 
Governor Brian Kemp’s consistent lead in the polls over his rival Stacey Abrams has been, well, consistent. Abrams has lately begun trying out new lanes of attack, however Kemp is seemingly parrying these with ease. Lack of traction has given the sense of floundering (except fundraising), and the late attacks have the feel of throwing spaghetti on the wall to see if anything sticks. Abrams has refused to run away from the Biden Administration, in contrast to her Democratic colleague Senator Warnock. Stressing progressive bona fides is on message, but it suggests that the goal may be preserving a national political brand rather than displacing the current occupant of the mansion on West Paces. Abrams has serious ground to make up with voting blocs critical to the Democratic coalition; polls show her underperforming among African American men particularly.
 
Despite all this, if you trust polls the races in the Peach State remain essentially where they have been through the summer: Warnock outperforming the rest of the ticket and Republicans generally leading all other races. Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger is proving that despite polarization cross-over appeal can be dominating as he leads opponent State Representative Bee Nguyen by the widest margin of any statewide race. State Senator Burt Jones appears to be headed to a win over former prosecutor Charlie Bailey for Lieutenant Governor. Attorney General Chris Carr should also defeat his challenger State Senator Jen Jordan.
 
One ghoulish specter haunting Georgia Republicans as Halloween approaches is that of the man from Mar-a-Lago and whether former President Donald Trump can scramble the race in some way that, frankly, only he could. Whatever the means: announcing a 2024 run, campaigning here, legal issues erupting; Trump remains the X-factor in American politics.  Otherwise, national political headwinds seem to be against the Democrats vying for office here, with the exception Senator Warnock’s likely re-election. That is no small thing, as the Senate majority hangs on the choice of Georgia’s voters once again.
Defense Update
By Al Jackson, Total Spectrum Strategic Consultant
 
In a recent white paper published by the National Defense Industrial Association, the Fiscal Year (FY) 2023 defense budget must total $815 billion just to outpace inflation. That figure represents a $42 billion increase over the Administration’s FY2023 budget request. If not addressed, the Pentagon will experience an estimated $110 billion loss in buying power in the coming years due to record-setting inflation, resulting in reduced quantities and maintenance backlogs or cost overruns and delays. 
 
Further, the white paper indicates the current Continuing Resolution (CR), which keeps the government operating through December 16, 2022, will hinder the Pentagon’s buying power by $6 billion every month the CR remains in effect. 
 
As defense companies cope with soaring inflation, the Pentagon is considering issuing new guidance that would give contracting officers more flexibility to adjust, especially on firm, fixed-price contracts with suppliers. The Pentagon hopes to update guidance for contracting officers in the very near future. Small businesses operating under firm-fixed pricing contracts coupled with 11% inflation could threaten their future survival. 
 
Late in September, the Senate Appropriations Committee reported an $850 billion defense spending bill, which is well above the administration’s FY2023 request of $773 billion. The large budget increase was needed in response to the increase in inflation. 
 
Budget numbers associated with the four key defense committees are as follows:
  • House Appropriations Committee: $762 billion 
  • House Armed Services Committee: $839 billion
  • Senate Armed Services Committee: $847 billion
  • Senate Appropriations Committee: $850 billion
 
Procurement of the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program received an increase, as the committee added $725 million for more F-35 aircraft. For Air Force aircraft, the committee fully funded the service’s request for 24 F-15EXs, 15 KC-46 tankers, and five MH-139A Grey Wolf helicopters. Appropriators also increased several aircraft procurement programs beyond the Air Force’s request. The committee added $298 million to increase procurement of the Combat Rescue Helicopter by 10 HH-60Ws, for a total of 20 aircraft. The committee also added 16 Georgia-built C-130Js aircraft at a total cost of $1.7 billion, and fulfilled an unfunded requirement of $554 million for four new Compass Call aircraft. The Army’s Apache helicopter also received full funding.
 
Small defense contractors, which benefit from the popular Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) grants and Small Business Technology Transfer (STTR) awards, will see the programs reauthorized for three years, as both Houses passed the measure in late September. The SBIR and STTR programs are designed to incentivize small businesses to engage in early-stage research and development for technologies and products.

Unfortunately, Chinese state-sponsored companies have targeted U.S. firms that receive the SBIR and STTR grants, which are awarded jointly by 11 federal agencies. A 2021 Pentagon report on a small sample of SBIR awardees found China was the ultimate beneficiary of the grants, not the United States. Hence, the legislation requires SBIR or STTR applicants to disclose whether the company has ties to “any foreign country of concern, including the People’s Republic of China.”
 
Late in September, the Senate Foreign Relations Committee reported the Taiwan Policy Act, which includes $6.5 billion in military aid for Taiwan. Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Menendez (D-NJ) hopes to pass this legislation as an amendment to the FY2023 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA). Congress will begin debate on the NDAA later this month, though a final vote won’t come until after the midterm elections.
This e-newsletter is produced by Total Spectrum/SGA and Total Spectrum Georgia. The views expressed herein may include subjective commentary and analysis that are the views of the editors and authors alone. Information in this e-newsletter is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but that cannot be guaranteed as independently investigated or verified. Information in this e-newsletter is not an endorsement, advertisement, recommendation, or any type of advice, political, legal, financial, or otherwise. With questions about the content of this e-newsletter, please contact Total Spectrum Georgia.