Over the five-day Thanksgiving weekend including Cyber Monday, consumers didn’t turn out as expected or spend as much. If this weekend – the traditional kickoff for the holiday shopping splurge – is the measure, then it was a dud.  

The number of shoppers in-store and online dropped by some 5.2% from 2019 pre-pandemic high, down from 189.6 million in 2019 to 179.4 million this year, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF).

And even with people having greater confidence from the vaccines this year, some 3.5% fewer consumers participated over the Thanksgiving weekend compared with last when 186.4 million shopped.

Consumer spending over the five-day Thanksgiving weekend didn’t live up to expectations either. Shoppers spent on average $301.27, down 3.4% from $311.75 spent last year and off 16.8% from the pre-pandemic 2019 high of $361.90.

Suggesting the apparent declines in both traffic and spend were caused by shoppers making early holiday purchases, NRF president Matthew Shay remains bullish on prospects for the rest of the holiday season.

“It’s our view that the macro conditions remain very favorable,” he said in a post-Thanksgiving conference call. “Our forecast for the holiday season is 8.5% to 10.5% growth over last year. For the first ten months of this year through October 31, retail sales are up by more than 14% compared to a year ago. Last year, retail sales were up close to 7% and we are substantially lapping that this year.”

To put this year’s holiday projections into perspective, NRF expects November-December retail to grow in excess of 8%, excluding autos, gasoline stations and food service, on top of another 8.2% last year.

After the NRF released early predictions for a 3.6% to 5.2% increase in 2020 over 2019, last year’s final tally felt like a miracle. Now the NRF expects lightning to strike twice, which can happen, but it’s beginning to look less and less likely given this weekend’s results.

Suggesting that more modest growth projections in the 3% to 5% range are more realistic, Phillip Jackson, chief commerce officer at Rightpoint, a digital customer experience consultancy, says, “I don’t think that growth is as questionable, but where that growth will be and how people will be spending could potentially be a shock to our systems.”

Meet the HENRYs breaks new ground by uncovering a new target consumer--Millennials with money.

It's a segment of the largest generation of Americans with more discretionary income than the rest of the cohort today and poised to acquire more money in the future.

These are the millennials that matter most to brands today and tomorrow

For the foreseeable future, millennial HENRYs (High Earners Not Rich Yet) will be the consumers that every brand manager, marketer and retail executive will need to know well.

This subset of the largest generation of Americans, earns between $100K and $250K–the income cohort that accounts for 40 percent of all household spending. Most important, however, these are the consumers who are on track to become the ultra-affluent ($250K +) of the future.

This forward-looking book examines trends and profiles emerging disruptive brands that millennial HENRYs are drawn to, and explains how many of these innovative brands are setting themselves apart from the traditional top-tier luxury brands.

It takes you on a deep-dive into the steps the smartest of the traditional luxury brands and retailers are taking to keep up with a new generation of consumers who are anything but traditional in their approach to luxury spending.

Everyone has heard the adage, “The bigger the challenges, the greater the opportunity,” but often the reverse is true too: The bigger the opportunity, the greater the challenges. Both apply for home brands that aim to grow in the U.S. consumer market.“

Here are the five biggest challenges that every home furnishings brand faces entering or expanding in the U.S. market, whether selling through brick-and-mortar retail, B2C e-commerce or through the design trade.

While most businesses are entranced by the growth opportunities in China – 1.4 billion people with GDP growth averaging ~9% per year since 1980 – the U.S. market is far larger in market size yet with only one-fourth the total number of consumers – 328 million people living in 138 million U.S. households. The U.S. economy leads the world, $21.4 trillion as compared with $14.3 trillion in China, according to The World Bank.

In reality, China may be the world’s biggest producer, but the U.S. is the biggest consumer market.

Further, the U.S. is where more of the world’s wealth resides. There are 20.6 million U.S. millionaires, more than the five next largest countries combined, including China’s 2.3 million millionaires.

As for the home furnishings market, Americans spent $380.7 billion in 2020 on goods for their home, including $238.8 billion on furniture and furnishings alone. Add to that the $90.4 billion spent on home services, and the total market opportunity in the U.S. is rapidly approaching a half-trillion dollars.