Are we in a housing crisis?
Nationwide, the inventory of homes for sale in January, 2021 fell 26% compared with January, 2020, according to the National Association of Realtors with a nationwide average of 1.9 month supply of homes on the market. This nationwide percentage is lower than Dutchess County has been experiencing. Freddie Mac estimated that the nationwide housing market is nearly four million homes short. As timelines continue to be challenged with supply backup and increased costs, new construction does not appear to have the ability to meet demand with timely relief. Based on the numbers, and further articulated by Brian Engles with Mid-Hudson multiple listing service, Dutchess County is experiencing a historic housing crisis in single family detached residential resales and I believe rental housing is right there with it.
As numbers were significantly skewed by the March-May, 2020 shutdown, it seemed most relevant to go back a year farther for purposes of year over year comparisons. The Mid-Hudson multiple listing service concurred that this period in 2019 could be considered an "average" year. Therefore, the basis for all analysis' in this edition are January1-June1, 2021 versus January 1-June 1, 2019.
Inventory
We are in the thick of Spring market, historically the busiest time of year for real estate in our area. Interesting to note that while Dutchess County reached an all time record low in inventory in May, 2021. Westchester and Putnam realized bumps in inventory in April, 2021, but overall, they are also down in inventory.
Mid Hudson MLS Executive Director Brian Engles shared with yours truly that in May, 2004, during peak of the last historic inventory squeeze, 947 single family detached homes were available for sale in Dutchess County. During the height of the Covid shutdown, in April, 2020, Dutchess County hit very close to the 2004 historic low with only 949 single family detached homes available for sale. That low was hit during the height of the 2020 shutdown. Fast forward a year. In May, 2021 Dutchess County dipped to 625 single family detached homes available for sale as reported in the Mid-Hudson multiple listing service; nearly 30% lower than the prior historic low in May, 2004.
Interestingly, there is one market segment that has remained consistent with 2019 inventory levels in Dutchess County. Single family attached (townhouses/condos). In May, 2019 there were 54 closed sales on single family attached and 159 units January-May, per Mid-Hudson MLS. In May, 2021 there were 51 with 147 units sold January-May. That is a marginal difference in inventory between the years. The difference was in median price. In May, 2019, the median price for single family attached in Dutchess County was $189,950. In May, 2021, that number jumped to $235,950.
Median Sales
While the average price increases are more dramatic, they are skewed by luxury sales of which there have been a noticeable increase over this past year. Therefore, I went with median for purposes of this evaluation. For a truer picture of change, I compared 2021 with 2019, which was considered an "average" year in real estate based on prior years trending rather than a period plagued in shutdown during 2020.
The median price for Single Family Detached homes in Dutchess County May 31 2019 YTD was $281,731. According to Mid-Hudson MLS, May 31, 2021 YTD median price in Dutchess County rose approximately 33% to $375,000. Westchester saw an increase of approximately 14% with April, 2021 YTD median according to HGAR/One Key MLS at $750,000 versus $650,000 April, 2019 YTD. In Putnam, the median was $350,501 April, 2019 YTD with a jump to $395,500 April, 2021 YTD for an overall increase of approximately 12%. Ulster County MLS did not provide their numbers.
π₯ This Town is on Fireπ₯
The Town of Poughkeepsie currently has more price points showing 300-1075% increases than any other town or village in the county. I triple checked the numbers when I saw a 1075% increase in the $350,000-$400,000 price point January 1, 2021-June 1, 2021 versus same period 2019. There were 4 homes that sold during January-June in 2019 versus 47 for the same period in 2021 with an additional 22 currently active and 31 in contract in that price point alone. Along with that increase is a favorable 5.6% absorption rate. The next two price points with significant jumps in the Town of Poughkeepsie are $450,000-$500,000 showing 800% increase in units sold and $500,000-$550,000 showing an increase of 400% for the same period evaluated. Beacon is showing a clean sweep of increased sales from 86%-400% in the $300,000-$700,000 price points with an overall highly favorable absorption rate matching the Town of Poughkeepsie at 3.9 months - the most favorable overall absorption rates in Dutchess County.
Town by Town
Beacon is up 300% in the 600,000-$650,000 range and 400% in the $500,000-$550,000 range with favorable absorption rates. Beacon realized an overall increase of 42% in units sold 2021 YTD versus same period 2019. In fact, Beacon and the City of Poughkeepsie tied for lowest overall absorption rates (fastest from listing to sold) in the county at 3.9 months overall.
The Town of Beekman increased units sold by 300% in the $450,000-$500,000 price point with a highly favorable 3 month absorption rate. The Town of Beekman's overall increase in units sold to date versus 2019 is up 18% with an overall less favorable absorption of 7.5 months.
The Town of Clinton is down 4% in sales YTD versus same period 2019. There are several price points with favorable absorption rates but the town is experiencing a lack of inventory in several price points. The $450,000-$500,000 price point is currently up 300% in units sold 2021 versus 2019.
Dover is down 48% in inventory versus 2019 YTD. There are no increases in units sold over 2019 with the only consistent price point with 2019 in the $350,000-$400,000 range.
East Fishkill is up 44% in units sold YTD versus same period 2019. The overall absorption rate of 6.2 months indicates a more balanced market. The highest increase in units sold was 271% in the $400,000-$450,000 price point with a 5.1 month absorption rate.
Fishkill and E. Fishkill are down 13% in overall units sold versus 2019 with an overall absorption rate of 4.9 months. The $500,000-$550,000 price point is up 200%.
Hyde Park is showing strength in this challenging market. Up 64% overall with an overall 5.8 month absorption rate. The only town in the county where inventory appears available to meet demand across price points. The highest increases for Hyde Park are $300,000-$350,000, up 850% versus 2019 and $350,000-$400,000 up 350%.
LaGrange is up a more moderate 9% in overall units sold versus 2019 with an overall healthy absorption rate of 4.9 months. The price points tied at 200% increases in units sold are $450,000-$500,000 and $550,000-$600,000. The price points currently enduring inventory squeeze are $0-$300,000 - down 71% in units sold versus 2019 and $500,000-$550,000, down 29% same period.
Milan is down 43% in overall units sold versus 2019 YTD with an overall unfavorable absorption rate of 19.5 months. The overall elevated absorption appears fed by saturation in the $1,000,000+ price point. Every price point in the Town of Milan is down in units sold with exception in the $0-$300,000 price point, which is consistent with 2019 numbers.
Washington and Village of Millbrook up 109% in units sold overall YTD versus same period 2019. The $0-$300,000 price point is down 40% in units sold versus 2019 with a clean sweep of activity in the $300,000-$800,000 price points that did not exist in 2019. While up 100% in units sold in the $1,000,000+ price point YTD 2019, the town is reporting the highest level of active listings above $1,000,000 in Dutchess County with18 currently active. This triggers a saturation watch in the $1,000,000 price point for the Town of Washington.
Northeast and Village of Millerton is up 83% overall in units sold YTD versus same period 2019. There is an inventory squeeze down 20% in units sold $0-$300,000. The $300,000-$750,000 price points are showing activity not posted during the same period in 2019. There are 3 current listings above $1,000,000 that are skewing overall absorption.
The Town and Village of Pawling is up a more modest 5% YTD versus 2019 with inventory squeeze in multiple price points.
Pine Plains is down 18% in units sold YTD versus 2019. This is the only town in Dutchess County with an inventory squeeze in the $1,000,000+ price point, down 100% from 2019.
Pleasant Valley is up 73% in overall sales with an overall 6.7 month absorption rate that would be significantly lower if not skewed by a 48 month absorption rate currently reported for the $1,000,000+ price points. $300,000-$650,000 price points are posting noticeable increases in units sold, particularly the $350,000-$450,000 price points.
The City of Poughkeepsie is up 18% with a highly favorable absorption rate that ties with Beacon for lowest overall absorption rate in the county at 3.9 months. That means houses are moving swiftly from listing to sold across multiple price points.
The Town of Poughkeepsie was addressed in the introduction to this section.
The Town of Red Hook, Village of Red Hook and Village of Tivoli are up 42% with overall absorption of 5.7 months. The sweet spot for increased units sold is $400,000-$450,000, up 600% YTD versus 2019.
The Town of Rhinebeck and Village of Rhinebeck take two of the top three spots for overall increase in units sold YTD versus 2019, up 105% and 300% respectively overall. The $650,000-$700,000 price in the Town of Rhinebeck is up 300% with $450,000-$500,000 up 100%. The $1,000,000+ price point is up 267% and currently showing among the most contained absorption rates in the $1,000,000+ price point across the county at 8.7 months. The Village of Rhinebeck shows a highly favorable overall absorption rate of 4.2 months.
Stanford continues to perform with an impressive 67% increase in overall units sold YTD versus 2019. There is a noticeable inventory squeeze in the $0-$300,000 price point, down 83% in inventory available. The town is showing increase in several price points over 2019, including the $1,000,000+ price point which shows 5 sold, 1 in contract and 4 active January-June, 2021 when no activity (sold, contract or active) existed in this price point during same period of 2019.
Unionvale is down 22% is units sold 2021 versus 2019 to date. The $400,000-$500,000 and $1,000,000+ price points have shown healthy activity versus none in 2019. However, there is noticeable inventory squeeze in the $0-$400,000 price points.
Wappingers and Village of Wappingers, another consistently solid performer, is up 30% in units sold overall YTD 2021 versus 2019 with an overall 6.6 month absorption. The $350,000-$700,000 price points show a clean sweep of increase in overall units sold between 100-400%. The $0-$350,000 price points are showing an inventory squeeze, but current actives indicate this will likely rectify with current actives. Absorption in the $300,000-$350,000 indicates current saturation with $350,000-$400,000 the quicker moving price point by far, but absorption rates are fluid and could adjust up or down with sales.
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