New START Breakdown Highlights Need for Nuclear Abolition

February 2023

Dear Friend,

This week, we hit the grim anniversary of Putin's invasion of Ukraine and the beginning of Russia's ongoing war of aggression. It's not an anniversary anyone hoped to mark, and it comes after a year of escalating tension among nuclear weapon-possessing states due in large part to the war but also to growing concern over an array of other global issues, many intersecting—climate change, the current pandemic and feared future contagions, poverty, displacement, a breakdown in multilateral diplomacy and cooperation, and more. The one-year mark of the conflict in Ukraine also comes at a time when the world hoped that, instead of dealing with rising tension between the two states that retain the most extensive nuclear arsenals, the US and Russia would have been in the midst of negotiating an effective follow-on agreement to New START. Instead, implementation of New START provisions has been at a stand still, risking the last remaining bilateral arms control agreement between the two countries. I wrote a little more about that over at InDepthNews, which you can read below.

Since that writing, in his state of the nation address this morning, President Putin announced that Russia is "suspending" its participation in New START, meaning at least that Russia will not allow NATO countries to inspect its nuclear arsenal. The treaty still runs through 2026 and, per Putin's remarks, Russia will not completely "withdraw" from it, however, this marks another bleak turn in the degrading diplomatic relationship between the US and Russia. Putin called the state of US-Russian relations "completely and utterly the US's fault." NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg responded to Putin's remarks saying "the whole arms control architecture has been dismantled."

Even with these worrisome developments, last month we hit a different, noteworthy anniversary as well: two years since the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons entered into force. The steadfast energy that drove 68 current states parties, and 92 signatories, to the TPNW, is powerful and continues to grow, propelled in large part by passionate and brilliant members of civil society. Harnessing and cultivating this energy into ever-new and effective modes of advocacy that engage all world leaders and especially those of nuclear weapons states is key—something I hoped to convey alongside my colleagues Hadeel Abu Ktaish and Seth Shelden at a January event hosted by the Sorensen Center for International Peace and Justice at CUNY School of Law. You will find video of that event below, as well as a few other recent LCNP activities and recommended readings, including a notable letter from two US Congresspeople sent to the Department of Defense highlighting important areas to review and improve in the DoD's Law of War Manual.

As a reminder, you can always read this newsletter, and past LCNP eNews, on our website.

Kind regards,

Ariana Smith

Executive Director

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"New START Noncompliance Highlights Need for Nuclear Abolition"

LCNP Executive Director Ariana Smith published an op-ed February 8 addressing escalating tension between the US and Russia. Read an excerpt below:

NEW YORK (IDN) — The recent US allegation of Russian noncompliance with the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) cannot be adequately understood outside of the context of Russia’s ongoing war of aggression against Ukraine.

The Russian invasion, initiated nearly one year ago, was marked early on by insistent and illegal threats of nuclear use, intended to dissuade Western nuclear and nuclear-allied states from "interference" in Ukraine.

The war began two years into a global pandemic, which had put a pause on certain implementation provisions of New START—the last remaining binding, bilateral agreement between to the two largest nuclear-possessing states.

New START commitments require that the US and Russia have access to 18 on-site inspections annually to ensure compliance with the treaty. Early in the Covid-19 pandemic, both parties suspended these inspections with the intent to resume upon improved global health conditions.

Despite many health and travel restrictions’ disappearing over the last year, and the US’s stated readiness in August 2022 to resume, inspections have not returned. Then, Russia first delayed and later cancelled a November meeting of the Bilateral Consultative Commission (BCC)—a compliance and implementation treaty body that usually meets twice a year—referring to the West’s "toxic" attitude toward Russia, presumably invoking its displeasure at the broad support Ukraine has received from the US in the wake of Russia’s war efforts.

Russian Ambassador Anatoli Antonov’s reply to the US allegation included its own accusations of noncompliance by the US and blamed the stagnancy on a "hybrid war" he says the West is waging on Russia. The pause on New START inspections and meetings may have been triggered by the global health emergency, but it continues as a result of the war in Ukraine and rising tensions between Russia and the US.

Arms control experts have repeatedly emphasized how crucial New START is as well as how important it is that Russia and the United States execute an effective follow-on agreement prior to the current treaty’s 2026 expiration date.

The US and Russia not only need to take seriously their existing commitments, but they furthermore must seriously engage China, which is drastically growing its nuclear arsenal, in future negotiations. The recent confrontation over China’s suspected surveillance balloon, too, highlights the need for bilateral and multilateral diplomacy with both Russia and China.

While the 78-year nuclear taboo continues to hold today, without earnest negotiations among all nuclear weapon states—led by the largest arms possessors—it is in peril. The only route to securing the taboo forever is abolition, and the time for nuclear arms control, paving the way for disarmament, is now.

...

Read the full op-ed via InDepthNews.

Event Replays: "Rule of Law and Nuclear Weapons"

& "Examining the Humanitarian Impact of Nuclear Weapons"

Rule of Law & Nuclear Weapons

The Sorensen Center at CUNY School of Law hosted a virtual conversation in mid-January as part of its "Critical Voices: From Local to Global" series. Panelists included LCNP Executive Director Ariana Smith, UN Liaison for the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons, LCNP Board Member Seth Shelden, and Junior Fellow at the Center for International Policy/Former LCNP Intern Hadeel Abu Ktaish.

Speakers discussed, both with each other and attending participants, the impact of the new Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons as well as the framework of pre-existing international law related to nuclear weapons, and offered several opportunities for action from law students, and indeed anyone, to help move the needle on the imperative of nuclear disarmament.

If you weren't able to make it, you can watch the replay of the event here or by clicking the image below.

Examining the Humanitarian Impact of Nuclear Weapons

Also in January, Drew University hosted an in-person panel discussing the humanitarian impact of nuclear weapons. The event was co-sponsored by Lawyers Committee on Nuclear Policy, Nuclear Age Peace Foundation (NAPF), NAPF's youth initiative, Reverse The Trend: Save Our People, Save Our Planet (RTT), the Marshallese Educational Initiative (MEI), Drew Roosevelt Network, l'Association Francophone at Drew, and Drew Collegiate Model UN.

Panelists included Benetick Kabua Maddison, Executive Director of the Marshallese Educational Initiative; Tamatoa Tepuhiarii, an Equity Rises Youth Campaigner for RTT and MEI; Hannah Kohn, UN Advocacy Fellow for Outright Action International and former LCNP Intern; Seth Shelden, UN Liaison for ICAN and LCNP Board Member; and Annamaria Belevitch, Social Media Coordinator for NAPF. The event was moderated by Christian Ciobanu, Policy and Advocacy Coordinator for NAPF and Project Coordinator for RTT.

Find NAPF's written event report here and view the panel recording here.

LCNP Submission to the UN "New Agenda for Peace"

On the 75th anniversary of the United Nations, member states made a commitment to improving global governance for the sake of current and future generations. As part of this, they requested the UN Secretary-General to lay out recommendations for moving forward. This report, "Our Common Agenda," issued in September 2021, "represents the Secretary-General’s vision on the future of global cooperation. It calls for inclusive, networked, and effective multilateralism to better respond to humanity’s most pressing challenges." The report notes the need for a "New Agenda for Peace" to address a myriad of challenges the international community faces today.

Looking forward, the New Agenda for Peace is meant to be released in advance of a 2024 "UN Summit of the Future: multilateral solutions for a better tomorrow." In preparing the New Agenda and for the upcoming Summit, the UN issued a call for inputs from civil society.

LCNP responded to this call in January with a brief submission addressing in particular two commitments outlined in the Secretary General's Our Common Agenda: (1) promoting peace and preventing conflicts; and (2) abiding by international law and ensuring justice.

Find our submission here.