|
Quotes of the Day:
"The United States can and should develop a more holistic approach to strategic competition that recognizes and seizes upon the irregular, non-lethal, and non-military
aspects of competing as fundamental to success, and that focuses on U.S. interests and values, not just what it opposes.
...
The Joint Force will conduct irregular warfare operations and activities proactively to subvert, create
dilemmas for adversaries, and impose costs on an adversary’s strategic interests, including its
economy, civil society, institutional processes, and critical infrastructure. Irregular warfare
favors indirect and asymmetric approaches, though it may employ the full range of military and
other capabilities, in order to erode an adversary’s power, influence, and political will."
- The Joint Concept for Competing, 10 February 2023
"Man is never happy, but spends his whole life striving after something which he thinks will make him so."
-Arthur Schopenhauer
"The only means of strengthening one's intellect is to make up one's mind about nothing, to let the mind of a thoroughfare for all thoughts."
-John Keats
1. N. Korea food shortage worsens amid COVID, but no famine yet
2. Yoon tells NIS to show capability to 'neutralize' N.K. provocations
3. Prison for North Korean parents who let their children watch Hollywood films
4. VOA- [Washington Talk] “North Korea’s provocation over the line completely changes Japan’s military strategy… Possible to build infrastructure for 'tactical nuclear redeployment' in Korea”
5. N. Korea launches cruise missiles to carry nuclear weapons
6. Korea's 'artificial sun' setting nuclear fusion records
7. US nuclear-powered submarine arrives in Busan
8. Seoul, Washington step up deterrence against North Korea
9. Korea, Poland agree to launch arms cooperation dialogue, joint drills
10. [Wang Son-taek] Manage crisis and more to ease tension with NK
11. Will South Korea become the next nuclear-weapon state?
12. Red flags: China, North Korea flex military capabilities as fears over new conflicts continue to rise in Asia
13. Trump's False Claim About Defense 'Deal' with South Korea
1. N. Korea food shortage worsens amid COVID, but no famine yet
I would like to know what the Buddhist Sharing Movement says about this. During the famine of 94-96 they collected enormous data on the famine from first person interviews. They provided some of the best estimates of death and the DIA acknowledged that their collection of data was among the very best.
But the important point is conditions are getting worse in north Korea and we need to be observing for indicators of instability and be prepared to execute the full range of contingencies from humanitarian assistance and refugees to internal conflict and civil war to Kim's execution of his war plan to unify the peninsula by force to ensure his survival.
N. Korea food shortage worsens amid COVID, but no famine yet
AP · by HYUNG-JIN KIM · February 25, 2023
SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — There’s little doubt that North Korea’s chronic food shortages worsened due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and speculation about the country’s food insecurity has flared as its top leaders prepare to discuss the “very important and urgent task” of formulating a correct agricultural policy.
Unconfirmed reports say an unspecified number of North Koreans have been dying of hunger. But experts say there is no sign of mass deaths or famine. They say the upcoming ruling Workers’ Party meeting is likely intended to shore up support for North Korean leader Kim Jong Un as he pushes ahead with his nuclear weapons program in defiance of intense U.S.-led pressure and sanctions.
“Kim Jong Un can’t advance his nuclear program stably if he fails to resolve the food problem fundamentally because public support would be shaken,” said Lim Eul-chul, a professor at Kyungnam University’s Institute for Far Eastern Studies in Seoul. “The meeting is being convened to solidify internal unity while pulling together ideas to address the food shortage.”
ADVERTISEMENT
An enlarged plenary meeting of the Central Committee of the Workers’ Party is slated for late February. Its specific agenda is unknown, but the party’s powerful Politburo earlier said that a “a turning point is needed to dynamically promote radical change in agricultural development.”
Justice Thomas wrote of 'crushing weight' of student loans
Appreciating Jimmy Carter, outspoken but 'never irrelevant'
Some Democratic-led states seek to bolster voter protections
Chicago mayor's race dominated by concerns about crime
The meeting will be the party’s first plenary session convened just to discuss agricultural issues, though they often are a key topic at broader conferences in North Korea. Raising grain output was one of 12 economic priorities the party adopted during a plenary meeting in December.
It is difficult to know the exact situation in the North, which kept its borders virtually closed during the pandemic. Food shortages and economic hardships have persisted since a famine killed an estimated hundreds of thousands of people in the mid-1990s.
In his first public speech after taking over from his father as leader in late 2011, Kim vowed that North Koreans would “never have to tighten their belts again.”
During the first several years of his rule, the economy achieved modest growth as Kim tolerated some market-oriented activities and increased exports of coal and other minerals to China, the North’s main ally and biggest trading partner. More recently, however, tougher international sanctions over Kim’s nuclear program, draconian pandemic-related restrictions and outright mismanagement have taken a severe economic toll.
ADVERTISEMENT
South Korean estimates put North Korea’s grain production last year at about 4.5 million tons, a 3.8% decrease from a year earlier. Annual grain output has plateaued at about 4.4 million tons to 4.8 million tons in the past decade.
North Korea needs about 5.5 million tons of grain to feed its 25 million people, so it’s usually short about 1 million tons each year. About half of the gap is typically offset by unofficial grain purchases from China. The rest is an unresolved shortfall, said Kwon Tae-jin, a senior economist at the private GS&J Institute in South Korea.
ADVERTISEMENT
Kwon says curbs on cross-border trade due to the pandemic have likely hindered unofficial rice purchases from China. Efforts by North Korean authorities to tighten controls and restrict market activities have also worsened the situation, he said.
“I believe this year North Korea is facing its worst food situation since Kim Jong Un took power,” Kwon said.
Koo Byoungsam, a spokesperson at the South Korean Unification Ministry, said that an unknown number of North Koreans have died of hunger, but said the problem is not as serious as the mid-1990s famine, which stemmed from natural disasters, the loss of Soviet assistance and mismanagement.
The current food problem is more an issue of distribution than of an absolute shortage of grain since much of the grain harvested last year has not yet been eaten, ministry officials said. Food insecurity has worsened as authorities tightened controls over private grain sales in markets, instead trying to confine the grain trade to state-run facilities.
ADVERTISEMENT
Severe steps taken by the Kim government to contain the pandemic provided effective tools for imposing a tighter grip on the kinds of market activity that earlier helped foster stronger economic growth but might eventually erode the government’s authoritarian rule, analysts say.
Kwon said current food shortages are unlikely to cause mass deaths because food is still available in markets, though at high prices. During the famine in the mid-1990s, grain was hard to come by, he said.
North Korea monitoring groups have reported increases in the prices of rice and corn — the two most important staples — though the price of corn has stabilized recently in some regions.
“If North Korea indeed sees people dying of hunger and faces a chaos, it won’t publicly say things like ‘a very important and urgent task’ for an agricultural policy,” said Ahn Kyung-su, head of DPRKHEALTH.ORG, a website focusing on health issues in North Korea.
The North’s plenary meeting is “typical propaganda” meant to show Kim is working to improve living conditions and comes at a time when the leadership needs new fodder to burnish his image, on top of the nuclear program and assertions of a victory over the pandemic, Ahn said.
ADVERTISEMENT
During the plenary meeting, Kwon said that leaders will likely pressure local farm officials to raise grain output without presenting any effective solutions for the food crisis. Targets will be set and officials may be punished for failing to meet them if food shortages worsen, Ahn said.
Yi Jisun, an analyst at the state-run Institute for National Security Strategy in Seoul, said in a report in January that North Korea recently imported large amounts of rice and flour from China, though it is unlikely to accept food assistance from the United States, South Korea and Japan.
While declaring that food problems must be improved at any cost, the state-run media in the North have continued to tout its longstanding policy of “self-reliance,” a strategy that shuns Western help.
“The assistance by imperialists is a trap for plundering and subjugation meant to wrest 100 things after giving one,” the North’s main Rodong Sinmun newspaper said in a commentary Wednesday. “Building up the economy by receiving this ‘poisoned candy’ would be a mistake.”
AP · by HYUNG-JIN KIM · February 25, 2023
2. Yoon tells NIS to show capability to 'neutralize' N.K. provocations
Some very strong comments from President Yoon.
I am not sure what he intends for the NIS to do to show its capability to "neutralize" provocations.
But in my estimation the NIS is uniquely suited to help incolate the Korean people against north Korean provocations.
It must provide the deep understanding of the nature, objectives, and strategy of the Kim family regime to the ROK government and public.
And it is the organization that can recognize, understand, and EXPOSE the regime strategy and contribute to ROK (and alliance) efforts to attack that strategy with a superior political warfare strategy using effective information and influence.
Yoon tells NIS to show capability to 'neutralize' N.K. provocations | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 이해아 · February 24, 2023
By Lee Haye-ah
SEOUL, Feb. 24 (Yonhap) -- President Yoon Suk Yeol visited the National Intelligence Service (NIS) headquarters Friday and called on the agency to demonstrate its capability to "neutralize" the North Korean regime's miscalculations and provocations, his office said.
Yoon made the remark while receiving a 2023 policy briefing from NIS Director Kim Kyou-hyun and other senior agency officials.
President Yoon Suk Yeol (R) signs a guest book during a visit to the National Intelligence Service headquarters in Seoul on Feb. 24, 2023, in this photo provided by the presidential office. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)
"The reality of the security situation on the divided Korean Peninsula is grave, and the uncertainty in international affairs is growing," he was quoted as saying. "I would like you to demonstrate the capability to neutralize the North Korean regime's miscalculations and provocations, and boldly compete in the global information warfare."
Yoon was briefed on the NIS' overall work, including on overseas and North Korea intelligence, counterespionage, counterterrorism and cybersecurity operations, and urged the agency to perfectly carry out its role as the state's top intelligence agency responsible for defending national security and the people's freedom, his office said.
"The reason for existence of the organization called the National Intelligence Service -- in other words, its fundamental duty -- is to defend our freedom," he said, adding that its employees must have a different attitude to their work than other public servants.
"Just as a large dike collapses from a small ant tunnel, we must not allow the slightest crack in defending national security," he said.
Yoon urged the NIS to work closely with the private and public sectors and the military to strengthen their cyber capabilities, and actively apply advanced technologies to analyzing North Korea, overseas and counterespionage intelligence.
"There must be endless research, education and training to collect scientific information and effectively conduct work," he said. "Only then will the NIS' competitiveness be enhanced, and when it becomes a competent and strong intelligence agency will it be possible to have in-depth cooperation with our allies and partner nations."
Yoon also quoted Gina Haspel, the first woman to be appointed director of the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency in 2018, as saying her life as an intelligence agent was not simply a "career" but a "calling."
hague@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 이해아 · February 24, 2023
3. Prison for North Korean parents who let their children watch Hollywood films
Again, this is why we need to aggressively execute information and influence activities. Information is an existential threat to Kim.
Also, the defense against our inaction in influence activities is that we are creating a moral hazard by putting Koreans in the north at risk is uninformed. Koreans want information, they know the risks, and they are willing to accept the risks.
Prison for North Korean parents who let their children watch Hollywood films
The regime warned it will no longer be lenient with them as it intensifies its efforts to eradicate foreign movies and TV shows
By
Julian Ryall
IN TOKYO
24 February 2023 • 2:40pm
The Telegraph · by Julian Ryall
Parents who let their children watch Hollywood blockbusters will be sent to prison camps, North Korea has announced.
Pyongyang is intensifying its efforts to eradicate foreign films and television programmes with parents told that they will be punished if their children are caught watching illicit overseas movies just once.
Previously, parents could escape with a stern warning if their children were found in possession of media smuggled into the North from overseas.
“Inminban” or compulsory neighbourhood watch meetings are being rolled out to inform parents there will no longer be leniency if their children are exposed to western media, Radio Free Asia reported.
Quoting sources inside North Korea, the report said parents are being instructed to educate their children “properly” in the state’s socialist ideals.
A parent whose son or daughter is caught watching a foreign movie will go to a labour camp for six months – but their children will have to serve five years. Anyone found talking, dancing or singing “like a South Korean” will serve six months, with their parents serving a similar term.
“The host of the meeting emphasises parental responsibility, saying that education for children begins at home”, the source told RFA. “If parents do not educate their children from moment to moment, they will dance and sing of capitalism and become anti-socialists”.
Death for selling smuggled videos
Anyone who is convicted of selling smuggled videos can be sentenced to death.
In October, two teenagers were reportedly executed by firing squad in the city of Hyesan, on the border with China, after being found guilty of watching and distributing South Korean films.
Images have also emerged of a group of children and parents seated before a large crowd as their sentences are read out for breaking the Rejection of Reactionary Thought and Culture Act by watching foreign films.
The regime of Kim Jong-un has cracked down hard on imported popular culture, apparently out of fear that a younger generation of North Koreans is increasingly being exposed to external influences.
CDs and thumb drives smuggled over the border from China have led to more young people picking up South Korean slang and affecting hairstyles and tiny fashion details that deviate from what is considered acceptable in the North.
The Telegraph · by Julian Ryall
4. VOA- [Washington Talk] “North Korea’s provocation over the line completely changes Japan’s military strategy… Possible to build infrastructure for 'tactical nuclear redeployment' in Korea”
Speaking of information going into north Korea:
Eunjong Cho of VOA hosted Christopher Johnstone and me to talk about the security situation in Korea and the region. The main target audience for this broadcast is the elite in Pyongyang and I think the comments by Christopher and me really emphasize messages meant directly to Kim Jong Un on deterrence.
[Washington Talk] “North Korea’s provocation over the line completely changes Japan’s military strategy… Possible to build infrastructure for 'tactical nuclear redeployment' in Korea”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pgCnOL91JSk
1,755 views Premiered 109 minutes ago
Experts on the Korean Peninsula in Washington pointed out that North Korea's armed provocation tightens the somewhat loose cooperation between the US and Japan and only enhances Japan's ability to strike North Korea. The US is in the process of significantly strengthening the military power of both countries beyond strengthening the alliance with South Korea and Japan, and this capability, combined with the US extended deterrence, including the nuclear umbrella, will determine the survival of the North Korean regime. In particular, in order to resolve doubts about the provision of extended deterrence, it was suggested that a nuclear force could be jointly planned and infrastructure facilities built in South Korea in preparation for redeployment of tactical nuclear weapons. Experts warned that the North Korean leadership should take the reality that Japan will go down a completely different path in the future, saying that North Korea's provocation over the line is completely changing Japan's military strategy. Moderator: Cho Eun-jung / Conversation: Christopher Johnstone (CSIS Japan Chair), David Maxwell (Vice President, Asia-Pacific Strategy Center) » More VOA Korean YouTube videos: / Korean
VOA is the largest international broadcaster in the United States, providing radio, TV, web and mobile content in 47 languages for 278 million viewers each week, including in areas where freedom of speech is limited or absent. VOA Korean broadcasting provides news from around the world, news on the Korean Peninsula, and various special programs for the Korean people in various regions of the world as well as North and South Korea. » VOA Korean Website: https://www.voakorea.com/
» VOA Korean Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/voakorea
» VOA Korean Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/ voakorea/
» VOA Korean Twitter: https://twitter.com/voakorea
5. N. Korea launches cruise missiles to carry nuclear weapons
N. Korea launches cruise missiles to carry nuclear weapons
donga.com
Posted February. 25, 2023 07:49,
Updated February. 25, 2023 07:49
N. Korea launches cruise missiles to carry nuclear weapons. February. 25, 2023 07:49. niceshin@donga.com,yea@donga.com.
North Korea claimed on Friday that it had test-fired four strategic cruise missiles, the Hwasal-2, early Thursday morning. Regarding the missile launch, North Korea clarified that the purpose of its provocation was to “diversify means of delivering nuclear weapons” by stating that it was “an important component of the DPRK’s nuclear deterrent.” In regards to North Korea’s announcement that day, the South Korean military said, “There is a difference between what South Korea and the U.S. reconnaissance assets identified.” The South Korean military is weighing on the possibility that North Korea is waging a “deception tactic” to escalate military tensions by falsely claiming provocations raised by South Korea. However, cruise missiles are more difficult to detect and track than ballistic missiles.
The Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), North Korea's state media, claimed on the same day, “Strategic cruise missiles (launched from the Kimchaek City area of North Hamkyong Province) have simulated oval and figure ‘8’-shaped flight trajectories with a distance of 2,000 kilometers mooring line set in the East Sea where it hit the target after flying for 10,208 seconds (2 hours 50 minutes 8 seconds) to 10,224 seconds (2 hours 50 minutes 24 seconds).” It said that it even conducted performance tests by flying a distance of 2000 kilometers each and drew oval and figure-eight patterns above the sea above the launch target. The “2,000 kilometers” announced by North Korea is a distance that is capable of striking not only the Korean peninsula but also the entire U.S. military base in Japan, where many U.S. strategic assets such as the F-22 stealth fighter are deployed.
The KCNA also said that with this missile launch, it inspected and assessed the rapid response posture of the strategic cruise missile forces. This suggests that the cruise missile forces have been established and deployed. Long-range cruise missiles are considered a threatening weapon system because they can stealthily fly at ultra-low altitudes and destroy targets when surprise launches are made.
The launch by North Korea was reported to have gone undetected by ROK and U.S. reconnaissance assets. An official from the Joint Chiefs of Staff said, “Even at the time North Korea claimed, ROK and U.S. reconnaissance assets were keeping a close eye on the area. We are analyzing various possibilities, including the authenticity of North Korea’s claims.” A high-ranking military official said in a phone call with The Dong-A Ilbo, “It is highly unlikely that North Korea fired missiles on Thursday.” In other words, North Korea made false claims.
However, it is possible that the South Korean military could not detect them due to the nature of cruise missiles that evade interception radar by changing their flight path at ultra-low altitudes. Unlike ballistic missiles, which soar at an altitude of several tens of kilometers after launch and are immediately detected by satellites and radars, cruise missiles fly at ultra-low altitudes of several tens of meters, making detection and tracking difficult. Cruise missiles can also hit targets much more accurately than these ballistic missiles. For this reason, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Kim Seung-gyeom gave a command at closed key commanders meeting on Jan. 27 to prepare countermeasures for North Korea's cruise missiles in the near future.
한국어
donga.com
6. Korea's 'artificial sun' setting nuclear fusion records
"The future's so bright I gotta wear shades" (one for us baby boomers).
I hope this leads to technology we can all benefit from.
Friday
February 24, 2023
dictionary + A - A
Korea's 'artificial sun' setting nuclear fusion records
https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/2023/02/24/business/industry/nuclear-fusion-fusion-reactor-kstar/20230224162046297.html
Korea Superconducting Tokamak Advanced Research (Kstar) located at the Korea Institute of Fusion Energy (KFE) in Daejeon [KFE]
A donut-shaped nuclear fusion reactor, 9 meters (30 feet) wide, 6 meters high and weighing 1,000 tons, welcomes visitors at the Korea Institute of Fusion Energy (KFE) in the central Korean city of Daejeon.
In October, the machine will confine plasma for more than 50 seconds at 100 million degrees Celsius (180 million degrees Fahrenheit) to renew its own record once again.
Dubbed the "artificial sun," the Kstar — the Korea Superconducting Tokamak Advanced Research — was developed by KFE in 1995 to research nuclear fusion power.
The donut-shaped device is a tokamak, a reactor that generates energy by confining plasma with a powerful magnetic field.
In the case of Kstar, that field is generated by a 37.65-million-kilometer-long (23.4 million miles) filament, long enough to make 48 round trips between the Earth and moon.
The nuclear fusion reactor is safely secured in a testing facility built with enough concrete for 1,000 apartment buildings.
Nuclear fusion, or how the sun powers itself, theoretically generates seven times as much energy as fission, but with no pollution or waste.
Fusion energy is an unlimited source of energy that will never deplete, but also the apex of nuclear technology due to the difficulty of maintaining plasma at a super-high temperature.
Kstar was the first tokamak to reach a plasma temperature of 100 million degrees Celsius in 2018.
It also set the world record for maintaining that temperature the longest the following year with 8 seconds, a record it has renewed every year, climbing to 30 seconds in 2021.
The inner view of Kstar [KFE]
“Once we reach 300 seconds, there is no problem — in theory — having the plasma last for 24 hours,” KFE vice president Yoon Si-woo said, referring to the institute’s plan to reach 300 seconds by 2026.
Among the sources that maintain the plasma is tritium.
A hydrogen isotope with two neutrons and one proton in its nucleus, unlike common hydrogen with only one proton, tritium is close to impossible to find in nature.
Most of it is found in nuclear power plants, but only two — in Korea and Canada — can isolate the hydrogen atom for industrial use.
Tritium was long neglected as nuclear waste but is now a high-value material for nuclear fusion research, costing around 35 million won ($27,000) per gram.
“It was the black sheep of the family,” said a source from the science community who requested anonymity. “Now it allows us to lead the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) project.”
ITER is an international nuclear fusion research and engineering megaproject for creating nuclear fusion energy, with Korea, the United States, Japan, European Union, China, India and Russia as members.
The project aims to test massive nuclear energy production from 2035.
Once commercialized, a single fusion reactor the size of a house will be able to generate more energy than several conventional nuclear power plants.
BY LEE HEE-KWON,SOHN DONG-JOO [sohn.dongjoo@joongang.co.kr]
7. US nuclear-powered submarine arrives in Busan
US nuclear-powered submarine arrives in Busan
The Korea Times · February 25, 2023
The USS Springfield nuclear-powered fast attack submarine arrives at a naval base in South Korea's southern port city of Busan in this photo provided by the U.S. Pacific Fleet, Feb. 25. Yonhap
A U.S. nuclear-powered submarine has arrived in South Korea for a scheduled visit, the U.S. Pacific Fleet said Saturday, in an apparent show of force and a warning to North Korea against provocations.
The 6,000-ton Los Angeles-class fast attack submarine USS Springfield docked at a naval base in the southern port city of Busan for a "scheduled port visit," it said in a social media post, without revealing the timing of the arrival.
The USS Springfield, deployed to Guam, "routinely operates in the U.S. 7th Fleet area of operations, conducting maritime security operations and supporting national security interests," the post read.
The U.S. Pacific Fleet disclosed photos of the naval vessel hanging the national flags of the allies on the wall of the conning tower and crew members of the South Korean Navy welcoming the arrival.
The rare disclosure of the submarine's deployment to the South appears intended to send a stern warning to North Korea following repeated missile provocations.
North Korea has strongly protested the U.S. deployment of its strategic assets to the Korean Peninsula and the allies' combined exercises. (Yonhap)
The Korea Times · February 25, 2023
8. Seoul, Washington step up deterrence against North Korea
Great photo of the delegations on the USS Ohio at the link: https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2023/02/205_346055.html
I am reminded of why I joined the Army and not the Navy. I grew up in Connecticut and my Dad worked at Electric Boat in Groton and as school kids we would take field trips to the submarine base in New London. After touring the inside of a submarine I thought there is no way I would want to live under the sea like that. And then my Dad brought home a green beret for some reason and took me to see John Wayne in The Green Berets and my future was set.
Seoul, Washington step up deterrence against North Korea
The Korea Times · by 2023-02-24 08:37 | Defense · February 24, 2023
South Korean delegates pose with U.S. officials inside the USS West Virginia, a U.S. Ohio-class ballistic missile submarine, during their visit to the nuclear submarine training facilities at Naval Submarine Base Kings Bay, Georgia. Courtesy of South Korea's Ministry of Defense
US considers deploying nuclear-powered aircraft carrier for drills in South Korea next month
By Jung Min-ho
South Korea and the United States have conducted a tabletop exercise on responding to possible North Korean nuclear attacks and reaffirmed pledges to do so every year as part of their joint efforts to reinforce deterrence capabilities, the allies said in a statement, Friday (KST).
In addition, Washington is also considering sending a U.S. nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, among other strategic assets, to South Korea for Freedom Shield, a large-scale combined exercise planned for next month, military sources said.
"Both sides affirmed that the alliance stands ready to respond to the DPRK's (North Korea) nuclear threats," the South Korean and U.S. delegations said in the statement after the drill, known as DSC TTX, at the Pentagon. "The U.S. side highlighted that its 2022 Nuclear Posture Review states, "any nuclear attack by North Korea against the United States or its allies and partners is unacceptable and will result in the end of that regime."
During that exercise, the allies discussed ways to maintain peace on the Korean Peninsula, including "potential options" in the case of North Korea's nuclear weapons use.
North Korea's threats bring South Korea, Japan closer despite old grudges
"The United States will continue to field flexible nuclear forces suited to deterring regional nuclear conflict, including the capability to forward deploy strategic bombers, dual-capable fighter aircraft, and nuclear weapons to the region," the U.S. delegation said in the statement. "The United States will continue to work with the ROK (South Korea) to ensure an effective mix of capabilities, concepts, deployments, exercises, and tailored options to deter and, if necessary, respond to coercion and aggression by the DPRK."
After the DSC TTX, the delegations visited nuclear submarine training facilities in Georgia, where they were briefed on the mission of Ohio-class nuclear-powered submarines, which act as virtually undetectable undersea launch platforms for intercontinental ballistic missiles.
This photo, released Friday by North Korea's state media, shows the military test-firing a cruise missile during shooting drills in Kim Chaek in North Hamgyong Province, Thursday. Yonhap
The very same day, North Korea announced that it test-fired four long-range cruise missiles in waters off its eastern coast in its latest provocation.
The launches, confirmed by South Korea's military, were intended to verify the reliability of the missiles and "war posture" of North Korea's nuclear combat unit, according to its state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).
"The four strategic cruise missiles precisely hit the preset target on the East Sea of Korea after traveling the 2,000 kilometer-long elliptical and eight-shaped flight orbits for 10,208 seconds to 10,224 seconds," the KCNA said of the weapons drills conducted the previous day in Kim Chaek, a city in North Hamgyong Province. "The drill clearly demonstrated once again the war posture of the DPRK nuclear combat force bolstering in every way its deadly nuclear counterattack capability against the hostile forces."
Speaking to The Korea Times, Shin Jong-woo, a senior researcher at the Korea Defense and Security Forum, a think tank, said the range of the missiles was 200 kilometers longer than the ones test-launched on Jan. 25, 2022. Given North Korea's message that followed and the timing of the DSC TTX, he believes the North was sending a warning to the U.S. forces stationed in Japan.
U.S. B-1B bombers fly in formation with South Korea's F-35A fighter jets and U.S. F-16 fighter jets over South Korean waters during a joint air drill, Feb. 19. Courtesy of South Korea's Ministry of Defense
Later that day, Kwon Jong-gun, director-general for U.S. affairs at North Korea's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, warned that, if Washington does not stop its "hostile action," Pyongyang will regard it as a "declaration of war." He also described the DSC TTX as a practice for "nuclear war against us."
"While strengthening the alliance with its followers, the U.S. is denying our sovereign rights unilaterally, which is blatant ignorance of and an unacceptable challenge to our country," he said in a statement. "The only way of easing tensions on and around the Korean Peninsula is for the U.S. to abandon the pledges to deploy its strategic assets for South Korea and to halt joint military exercises against the DPRK."
The regime has stepped up criticism of Washington in the past week. While test-launching an intercontinental ballistic missile and short-range missiles before the latest provocation, it blamed the U.S. and South Korea for fueling tensions.
The Korea Times · by 2023-02-24 08:37 | Defense · February 24, 2023
9. Korea, Poland agree to launch arms cooperation dialogue, joint drills
Korea, Poland agree to launch arms cooperation dialogue, joint drills
The Korea Times · February 24, 2023
Defense Minister Lee Jong-sup, left, and his Polish counterpart, Mariusz Blaszczak, attend a test firing of K9 self-propelled howitzers at an artillery range in Torun, Poland, Feb. 23. Yonhap
The defense chiefs of South Korea and Poland have agreed to launch a ministerial dialogue on arms industry cooperation and joint military drills during their talks in Warsaw, Seoul's defense ministry said Friday.
Defense Minister Lee Jong-sup and his Polish counterpart, Mariusz Blaszczak, met Thursday, as the two countries seek to deepen security cooperation on the back of last year's deals for the South to supply tanks, howitzers and fighter jets to Poland.
They agreed to create the regular consultative body to "systematically" manage defense and arms industry cooperation between the two countries. The two sides plan to discuss its makeup and modus operandi in a "swift" manner, according to the ministry.
They also agreed to hold joint military drills to share their respective experiences in operating Korean-made weapons, and strengthen "interoperability" between the two militaries, it added.
Bilateral arms industry cooperation deepened last year as the South inked deals to supply Warsaw with K9 self-propelled howitzers, K2 battle tanks and FA-50 light attack aircraft.
Blaszczak said his country plans to continue to introduce South Korean weapons systems, and noted the need for "strategic and long-term" cooperation, according to the ministry.
Lee made a proposal to craft an arms industry cooperation model beneficial for both sides, such as one that would help Poland advance its defense technologies and South Korea secure a "bridgehead" to tap into the European arms market.
The ministers later visited an artillery range in Torun to observe a live-fire demonstration by K9 howitzers with shells manufactured by a Polish company. (Yonhap)
The Korea Times · February 24, 2023
10. [Wang Son-taek] Manage crisis and more to ease tension with NK
To follow Wang Son-taek's argument to its "logical" conclusion the problem in Korea is the presence of US troops and all we need to do is get US troops off the Korean peninsula and Kim Jong Un will have no more fear and will tus give up his nuclear weapons.
This illustrates a lock of understanding of the nature, objectives, and strategy of the Kim family regime. And it provides the wrong answer to the question the Dr. Jun Pak is famous for asking: Who does Kim fear more, the US military or the Korean people living in the north?
Excerpt:
In addition to standard response and crisis management, there is another mission the South must do to ease military tensions. It is an effort to address the fundamental problem. There might be reasons why North Korea violates international regulations. Unless the causes are found and removed, the tensions will repeat. According to North Korean logic, they are at war against the US, the adversary has a formidable arsenal of nuclear weapons, and it must have nuclear weapons to deter the possible invasion from the US. Their claim is awkward, but it might provide a sense of guiding light with a different interpretation; if North Korea improves relations with the US, excludes the possibility of an invasion, and signs a peace treaty, North Korea can give up nuclear weapons and follow the US-led international order. It should go together with building a peace regime on the peninsula. North Korea's claim could be the key to fundamentally resolving the nuclear issue. Somebody might argue that their logic is sheer propaganda and we should not be cheated. However, diplomacy is an exquisite art that can induce coexistence and consideration out of hatred and animosity. You must keep trying, as it’s better than giving up. There have been many such efforts to resolve the issue in the past, and there have been times when success was around the corner, though a final resolution has yet to be reached.
[Wang Son-taek] Manage crisis and more to ease tension with NK
By Korea Herald
Published : Feb 23, 2023 - 05:30 Updated : Feb 23, 2023 - 10:40
koreaherald.com · by Korea Herald · February 22, 2023
Military tensions on the Korean Peninsula have sharply risen to a dangerous level as North Korea launched the Hwasong-15 missile, one of the intercontinental ballistic missiles, on Feb. 18. North Korea's launch of long-range ballistic missiles was a severe provocation against international norms and order, as the UN Security Council’s resolutions on North Korea prohibit. Kim Yo-jong, the younger sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and deputy department director of the Workers' Party of Korea, made statements for two consecutive days, threatening “the Pacific Ocean will be a ballistic missile firing range for the North.” Meanwhile, as the South and the US are scheduled to conduct a massive military exercise in March, rising military tensions on the Korean Peninsula are an accomplished fact.
The escalation of tensions is a very problematic development in that it is a serious obstacle to peace and prosperity on the peninsula and the countries around Northeast Asia. Significantly, South Korea would suffer the most as it is an open trading country. Geopolitical risk creates obstacles to trade and attracts foreign investment. Diplomatically, the tension might deepen the dependence on the Korea-US alliance and serve as a pretext for interventions from neighboring countries. In that sense, it can be inevitable that the South is intensifying its military posture. However, military measure alone is insufficient as a standard response because diplomatic arrangement is also required. Therefore, South Korea has substantial reasons to prevent the escalation of tensions on the peninsula.
Diplomatic measures are essential because the peninsula issue is essentially international, involving the United States and China and the bilateral conflict between the two Koreas. North Korea is fiercely making diplomatic efforts toward China and Russia to scrap the international sanctions regime against itself. Therefore, it should be the primary task for South Korea to make diplomatic efforts for China and Russia to join the movement to condemn the North for violating international norms. However, while the South Korean government is making considerable efforts to strengthen the Korea-US alliance or cooperation with the US and Japan, it isn't easy to see diplomatic efforts for China and Russia. Managing security robustly without diplomatic efforts is practically impossible, and even though possible, it is not a wise approach because it costs too much.
Even if standard measures were carried out, the problem remains. If military tension is sensitively created, unintended military actions may occur. Local or full-scale war is possible in a situation where the other party's intentions are wrongly interpreted. Therefore, crisis management is necessary to prevent unwanted conflicts. Communication with North Korea, the United States, China and Japan is essential from the perspective of the South, which must reduce geopolitical risks.
In addition to standard response and crisis management, there is another mission the South must do to ease military tensions. It is an effort to address the fundamental problem. There might be reasons why North Korea violates international regulations. Unless the causes are found and removed, the tensions will repeat. According to North Korean logic, they are at war against the US, the adversary has a formidable arsenal of nuclear weapons, and it must have nuclear weapons to deter the possible invasion from the US. Their claim is awkward, but it might provide a sense of guiding light with a different interpretation; if North Korea improves relations with the US, excludes the possibility of an invasion, and signs a peace treaty, North Korea can give up nuclear weapons and follow the US-led international order. It should go together with building a peace regime on the peninsula. North Korea's claim could be the key to fundamentally resolving the nuclear issue. Somebody might argue that their logic is sheer propaganda and we should not be cheated. However, diplomacy is an exquisite art that can induce coexistence and consideration out of hatred and animosity. You must keep trying, as it’s better than giving up. There have been many such efforts to resolve the issue in the past, and there have been times when success was around the corner, though a final resolution has yet to be reached.
South Korea focuses on only one segment, military measure, out of four policy measures; military, diplomacy, crisis management, and peace regime building. The other three are being pursued very weakly, if not at all. We should do all four segments simultaneously. It is disturbing because we experienced a similar situation and got a catastrophe in 2010. There was the Cheonan warship's sinking and Yeonpyeong Island’s shelling. Forty-six sailors passed away in the sinking, and four people, including two soldiers, were killed by the shelling. If the Korean government fails to manage this crisis, we can easily anticipate that we will get similar loss of lives, property damage, and a deterioration in national image. The peninsula must live with geopolitical risks if we cannot resolve the fundamental problem. South Korea is an advanced democracy; one of the top 10 military and economic powers; and a culturally attractive country. In such a country, living with unwanted anxiety due to the issues with the small nation of North Korea is not a smart scenario.
Wang Son-taek
Wang Son-taek is a director for the Global Policy Center at the Hanpyeong Peace Institute. He was a former diplomatic correspondent at YTN and former research associate at Yeosijae. The views expressed here are his own. — Ed.
By Korea Herald (khnews@heraldcorp.com)
koreaherald.com · by Korea Herald · February 22, 2023
11. Will South Korea become the next nuclear-weapon state?
While many criticize the South Korean quest for nuclear weapons (to include me), I think we should take a positive view . That is the Korean government and people are demonstrating their commitment to the defense of Korea and showing a willingness to do what is necessary to defend South Korea. We can disagree on how best to do that but we must respect their desire for and commitment to self defense (even if it is based on perceived decline in the US commitment to extended deterrence).
Will South Korea become the next nuclear-weapon state? | The Strategist
aspistrategist.org.au · by Malcolm Davis · February 23, 2023
It has long been a concern that North Korea’s nuclear posturing would goad or frighten its neighbours into developing their own nuclear capability. Now South Korea’s president, Yoon Suk-yeol, has raised the prospect of Seoul acquiring its own nuclear weapons. Yoon stated last month: ‘It’s possible that the problem gets worse and our country will introduce tactical nuclear weapons or build them on our own. If that’s the case, we can have our own nuclear weapons pretty quickly, given our scientific and technological capabilities.’
At the same time, Yoon emphasised opportunities for nuclear sharing with the United States, stating: ‘Currently, there is a discussion between South Korea and the United States in which we share information, participate together, jointly plan, and jointly execute the operation of these US nuclear assets’.
His office quickly clarified that South Korea’s priority was to strengthen extended deterrence security guarantees to deter any threat from North Korea, a position that Yoon later confirmed. ‘I can assure you,’ he said, ‘that the Republic of Korea’s realistic and rational option is to fully respect the [nuclear non-proliferation] regime … I’m fully confident about the US’s extended deterrence.’
However, the door is now open to the possibility of South Korea developing nuclear weapons.
The threat from North Korea is front and centre in driving Seoul down this path. Pyongyang is seeking to rapidly develop tactical nuclear weapons that can be used to threaten South Korea directly. Seoul can’t ignore that growing threat. A seventh North Korean nuclear test remains likely and Pyongyang continues to develop ballistic missiles that can deliver tactical and strategic nuclear weapons. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has called for ‘exponential’ expansion of his country’s nuclear capabilities.
That threat is emerging against a background of Russian nuclear threats against NATO, which many believe undermine traditional norms that de-emphasise nuclear weapons. The effects of Russia’s attempts at coercion on the resilience of US extended nuclear deterrence guarantees are no doubt being watched closely by Beijing, Pyongyang and perhaps even Tehran.
ASPI senior fellow Rod Lyon has highlighted uncertainties about how US extended nuclear deterrence guarantees are applied, and there are concerns in Seoul and Tokyo about the resilience of those guarantees in the face of threats from Moscow, and the prospect of such coercion by China in a future crisis over Taiwan. South Korea’s government is in effect asking whether the US will be prepared to risk trading Seattle or San Francisco for Seoul or Busan.
There’s no indication that diplomacy between the two Koreas, or between the US and North Korea, will offer a path to comprehensive and verifiable denuclearisation of North Korea.
Added to this is the potential for a return of Donald Trump as US president after 2024, which must resuscitate concerns in Seoul over whether Washington would continue to support the alliance even in the face of a growing nuclear threat from Pyongyang. A return to the ‘photo-op diplomacy’ that characterised discussions between Trump and Kim would again lead nowhere, or worse, result in the US making strategic concessions for little in return beyond empty ‘America first’ boasts to the media.
Yoon would also be paying attention to domestic political factors. Polling suggests that up to 70% of South Koreans support developing an independent nuclear deterrent. Yoon can’t ignore such widespread support, especially as the threat grows from the North. Another North Korean nuclear test could quickly force his hand.
So, what happens if South Korea takes the plunge and acquires its own nuclear forces?
To get the bomb, Seoul would have to leave the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Tray, dramatically weakening it. North Korea left the NPT in 2003 to pursue nuclear weapons, but for a liberal democracy to follow suit would be a heavy blow to the treaty’s perceived role as the inviolable centerpiece of nuclear non-proliferation. Might Tehran then seize its own opportunity, and would other states follow suit? After all, if Russia were to demonstrate the effectiveness of nuclear threats and North Korea acquired many tactical nuclear weapons without cost, that would reinforce the legitimacy of nuclear weapons in the eyes of some actors. How many states walking away from the NPT would deal it a death blow?
For South Korea to acquire an independent nuclear deterrent would damage its relationship with the US, and with its neighbours, even if uncertainty over Washington’s extended nuclear deterrence commitments was a factor in Seoul’s decision-making. China would certainly demand some form of sanctions on Seoul, and politically it would be difficult for the US to avoid imposing any costs without its own credibility being undermined.
South Korea’s neighbours would have to respond. Japan has the technological skills to develop nuclear weapons relatively quickly, though constitutional constraints could slow the process. But Tokyo has been steadily moving away from the tight limits on its development of military capabilities, and the ruling parties’ recent decision to develop a counterstrike capability based around land-attack cruise missiles has opened up a political window if Japan’s strategic environment deteriorates sharply. A breakdown in confidence in US extended deterrence would place immense pressure on Tokyo to act, especially if South Korea had taken that first step.
If South Korea and Japan were to both get nuclear weapons, it’s very likely that China would more accelerate the build-up of its own nuclear capabilities, perhaps moving faster towards its goal of 1,500 warheads by 2035 described in the Pentagon’s most recent China Military Power report. Might China move away from its ‘no first use’ policy? There’s also the question of tactical nuclear weapons for the Chinese military. The Pentagon report notes that China’s military commentators said in 2021 that precise small-yield nuclear weapons could be used for warning and deterrence, and suggested that they could lower the cost of war.
The emergence of South Korea, and potentially Japan, as nuclear-weapon states could encourage Beijing along that road.
Clearly a better option is to strengthen US extended nuclear deterrence by bringing Seoul into enhanced nuclear sharing arrangements, though those arrangements would need to be carefully defined. A nuclear sharing arrangement needn’t imply that South Korea would have operational control over US nuclear forces, which would make it significantly different to NATO’s nuclear sharing approach. For example, it’s unlikely that US tactical nuclear weapons based in South Korea would be carried on South Korean military aircraft.
Likewise, Japan, and other key Indo-Pacific partners such as Australia, need to play a role—perhaps in an Asian nuclear planning group similar to that in NATO, as researcher Jennifer Ahan suggested last year. An Indo-Pacific nuclear planning group would enhance collective decision-making over nuclear weapons and strengthen US extended nuclear deterrence guarantees.
Such steps could avoid an unconstrained proliferation cascade sweeping across Asia that would be highly destabilising and could lead to the collapse of nuclear non-proliferation norms.
aspistrategist.org.au · by Malcolm Davis · February 23, 2023
12. Red flags: China, North Korea flex military capabilities as fears over new conflicts continue to rise in Asia
Red flags: China, North Korea flex military capabilities as fears over new conflicts continue to rise in Asia
foxnews.com · by Peter Aitken | Fox News
Video
Timing of Taiwan troop announcement 'sends a signal' to China: James Carafano
The Heritage Foundation VP of foreign and defense policy studies James Carafano reacts to the U.S. expanding its troop presence in Taiwan on 'America Reports.'
The Philippines and Taiwan sounded alarm bells after detecting dozens of suspected Chinese vessels and aircraft across the South China Sea on Friday.
"To undermine the Taiwanese public’s faith in the ability of the armed forces to protect the island’s sovereignty, China’s near-daily aerial and naval incursions will probably increase in number and intensity over the course of the coming year," Craig Singleton, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told Fox News Digital.
The Taiwanese Ministry of National Defense issued a statement saying that it had detected 37 People’s Liberation Army (PLA) aircraft and six PLA Navy vessels around Taiwan at around 6 a.m.
An update noted that 12 of the aircraft had crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait and entered Taiwan’s air defense identification zone.
US SENDING UP TO 200 MORE TROOPS TO TAIWAN AS CHINA TENSIONS GROW
The island responded by dispatching aircraft and naval vessels to monitor the Chinese crafts.
Around the same time, the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) issued a statement claiming that a patrol aircraft had spotted at least 26 suspected Chinese "maritime militia vessels" during a flyover of the South China Sea.
A Chinese navy fleet departs for an upcoming China-Russia joint naval exercise from a military port in Zhoushan, east China's Zhejiang Province, Dec. 20, 2022. Chinese and Russian navies will hold the joint naval exercise "Joint Sea 2022" in waters east of the sea area from Zhoushan to Taizhou, east China's Zhejiang Province, starting from Dec. 21, according to the Chinese navy. (LiLi Yun/Xinhua via Getty Images Yun/Xinhua via Getty Images)
The vessels were spotted within the Philippine exclusive economic zone, which the Philippines has exclusive rights to the sea resources, Radio Free Asia reported.
The plane "received inaudible radio challenges, both in English and Chinese from CCG-5304 [a Chinese vessel] currently continuing to maintain presence in the area," the PCG said in a statement.
PENTAGON SAYS MAJORITY OF DOWNED CHINESE SPY CRAFT FOUND
Reporters aboard the flight said they heard warnings that the plane was "entering the vicinity of Chinese territory" and was requested the leave the area.
"These latest exercises are broadly consistent with the 'new normal' China established in the region after former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's travel to Taiwan last August, in which China now regularly conducts military maneuvers much closer to Taiwan’s shores," Singleton explained.
Chief of Naval Operations Admiral Michael Gilday speaks during an interview with the media at a private hangar in Manila, Philippines, on Feb. 22, 2023. The United States is "committed" to conducting joint maritime patrols with the Philippines in the disputed South China Sea, said Gilday as the countries seek to deter Chinese aggression. (Ted Aljibe/AFP via Getty Images)
"All told, China doubled its annual incursions into Taiwan’s air defense zone from 538 in 2021 to 1,241 in 2022," he continued. "Likewise, China intensified its cyber-attacks against Taiwanese governmental and financial institutions, as well as launched disinformation campaigns aimed at subverting Taiwan’s political process."
"Xi’s problem in all this—which he may not yet realize—is that China’s aggressive attempts at sub-crisis maneuvering could have the unintended effect of catalyzing the very superpower crisis he seeks to avoid," Singleton concluded. "Gaming out gray zone escalation suggests such provocations could lead the United States and its allies to embrace more forceful counter-responses in the future."
11-YEAR-OLD CAMBODIAN GIRL DIES FROM BIRD FLU IN COUNTRY'S FIRST KNOWN HUMAN INFECTION SINCE 2014
China’s military activity in the region follows reports that North Korea test-fired long-range cruise missiles off its eastern coast on Thursday. Pyongyang’s official Korean Central News Agency said the four missiles flew for nearly three hours after being launched from the northeastern coast, drew oval and figure-eight patterns above the sea, and showed they can hit targets 2,000 kilometers (1,240 miles) away.
The launches, initially reported by Pyongyang and later confirmed by South Korea’s military, were intended to verify the reliability of the missiles and the rapid response capabilities of the weapons. South Korea’s joint chiefs of staffs said the details described by North Korea "had discrepancies," but did not elaborate.
A Chinese Air Force H-6K bomber flies to the West Pacific, via the Bashi Strait, for a routine combat simulation drill, Sept. 12, 2016. The Chinese Air Force on Monday sent multiple aircraft models, including H-6K bombers, Su-30 fighters, and air tankers, for the drill. The fleet conducted reconnaissance and early warning, sea surface cruising, inflight refueling, and achieved all the drill's targets. (Xinhua/Guo Wei via Getty Images)
The launches came as the U.S. and South Korean defense officials held a Deterrence Strategy Committee Table-Top Exercise (DSC TTX) at the Pentagon. A day before that, North Korea launched a Hwasong-15 intercontinental ballistic missile, with Kim Jong Un's sister saying that they were "using the Pacific" as their "firing range."
"Given the DPRK’s recent aggressive nuclear policy and advancements in nuclear capabilities, the TTX scenario focused on the possibility of the DPRK’s use of nuclear weapons," the Pentagon said Thursday.
Tensions in the region have increased after the U.S. held joint training exercises with Britain and Australia to strengthen air defenses against Chinese aircraft.
CLICK HERE TO GET THE FOX NEWS APP
The joint exercise, dubbed Red Flag, lasted for three weeks, giving pilots the chance to practice combat against peer and near-peer technology. The exercises included F-22s, F-35s, B-52s, F-16s and C-130s based out of Nellis Air Force Base.
"[China is] just the pacing challenge that we train to so that we're ready ... We think that if we're ready for China, we're ready for anybody," U.S. Air Force Colonel Jared Hutchinson told Reuters.
Anders Hagstrom and The Associated Press contributed to this report.
Peter Aitken is a Fox News Digital reporter with a focus on national and global news.
foxnews.com · by Peter Aitken | Fox News
13. Trump's False Claim About Defense 'Deal' with South Korea
One thing that was never really brought to light was that our demands during the previous administration required a renegotiation of the SOFA. The SOFA specifies what categories of support are funded. There is no provision for Korea (or any country) to "rent" US forces for their defense.
And of course the demands are based on the flawed assumption that we are in Korea to defend Korea simply out of the goodness of our hearts. The fact is that we assess that it is in US interests to prevent war on the Korean peninsula and the most effective deterrent to war is the presence of US troops and the commitment demonstrates our being willing to fight and win alongside our allies against Kim Jong Un if he should attack the South.
Trump's False Claim About Defense 'Deal' with South Korea - FactCheck.org
factcheck.org · by Robert Farley · February 24, 2023
Former President Donald Trump, who has regularly complained about the amount of money South Korea pays the U.S. to maintain American military bases there, falsely claimed this week that he “had a deal [with South Korea] for full payment to us, $Billions, and Biden gave it away.”
When he was president, Trump sought billions of dollars more from South Korea, but negotiations stalled in 2020 and an agreement was never reached. Soon after being elected, President Joe Biden inked a new five-year deal in which South Korea agreed to increase its cost-sharing payment by 13.9% in 2021.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, left, bumps elbows with South Korean Foreign Minister Chung Eui-yong after an initialing ceremony for the Special Measures Agreement in Seoul on March 18, 2021. Photo by Lee Jin-Man/Pool/AFP via Getty Images.
Trump’s rewriting of history came in a Truth Social post on Feb. 21: “Kim Jung Un of North Korea, who I got to know and got along with very well during my years as President, is not happy with the U.S. and South Korea doing big training and air exercises together. He feels threatened. Even I would constantly complain that South Korea pays us very little to do these extremely expensive and provocative drills. It’s really ridiculous.
“We have 35,000 in jeopardy soldiers there,” Trump said. “I had a deal for full payment to us, $Billions, and Biden gave it away. Such a shame!!!”
That’s not accurate.
“No deal was struck under Trump with Korea on the military burden share,” Andrew Yeo, a professor of politics and director of Asian studies at The Catholic University of America, told us via email. Yeo added that Trump also inflated the number of American troops in Korea. That number is at about 28,500, he said, not 35,000.
Trump’s Ongoing Demands
Even before he took office in January 2017, Trump was making demands that South Korea pay more for the U.S. military presence there.
“We spend a fortune on defending South Korea,” Trump said during a town hall event on March 30, 2016, while he was running for office, adding that he “order[s] thousands … of television sets” from South Korea.
“They’re making so much,” Trump said. “They’re making a fortune. They’re a behemoth. … Why aren’t they reimbursing us? Why aren’t they paying a good portion of the cost?” And then he added this warning: “If we have to walk, we have to walk.”
That sort of rhetoric continued when Trump was in the White House.
In 2019, Trump began to boast — repeatedly — that his tough negotiating with South Korea had resulted in South Korea paying an additional $500 million a year to the U.S., double what it had been paying, according to Trump. But that’s not what happened.
Trump inherited the latest in a string of five-year Special Measures Agreements, which in 2017 — Trump’s first year in office — had South Korea paying the U.S. 950 trillion won, or about $830 million in U.S. dollars. That equates to roughly half of the total non-personnel costs of U.S. troop presence on the peninsula, Bruce Klingner, who specializes in Korean and Japanese affairs as the senior research fellow for Northeast Asia for the conservative Heritage Foundation, told us via email.
When that agreement expired, Trump made it clear he wanted much more from South Korea.
Klingner said: “Trump’s original guidance to his negotiating team was ‘cost plus 50%’ which then became a demand for a 400-500% increase.”
South Korea balked, and the two sides ultimately agreed in early 2019 to a one-year deal that raised South Korea’s contribution to about $930 million, or about 8.2% more than South Korea paid in 2018, according to an announcement from South Korea’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs. (Note: That’s a far cry from the “$500 million a year more” that Trump would later say he secured.)
During negotiations the following year, the U.S. and South Korean teams reached a tentative agreement that would have had South Korea increasing its contribution by 13%, which would have brought the total to a little over $1 billion. Trump, however, rejected the offer and continued to make demands for as much as $5 billion, according to a news account from the Diplomat, a U.S.-based magazine focusing on the Asia-Pacific region.
“Apparently Trump refused to budge from that astronomical figure, insisting that a wealthy country like South Korea should pay more,” the Diplomat wrote. “For Seoul, however, such a large hike was a ‘non-starter.’”
Talks stalemated.
In an op-ed for the National Interest in April 2020, Klingner criticized Trump’s hard-line position.
“Excessive monetary demands degrade alliances based on shared principles and goals into mere transactional relationships,” Klingner wrote. “Seeking to profit off U.S. forces overseas is inconsistent with American values and commitments. Alliances are not valued in dollars and cents, and America’s brave sons and daughters in uniform are not mercenaries.”
The Biden Deal
It wasn’t until shortly after Biden took office in January 2021 that negotiations resumed. After three days of negotiations, the two sides announced in March 2021 a new five-year agreement, in which South Korea committed to increasing its cost-sharing for American troops by 13.9% that year. According to the New York Times, South Korea agreed that after 2021 it would “increase its portion annually at the same rate it boosts its defense budget — at an average of 6.1 percent per year until 2025.”
According to the Korea Economic Institute, a U.S. policy think tank dedicated to promoting ties between America and South Korea, the average increase in South Korea’s contribution between each Special Measures Agreement going back to 1991 has been about 8.5%, with the highest of 25.7% coming in the fifth Special Measures Agreement in 2002. So the 13.9% increase in the deal reached with the Biden administration in early 2021 was higher than average.
Klingner told us that having an agreement on a new deal also “removed a major irritant in the alliance relationships.”
And, Klingner said, Biden “ended the demeaning language against our allies and returned to the traditional bi-partisan US view of alliances as in our strategic interest rather than seeing them as transaction relationships.”
So Trump wanted billions, and repeatedly complained that South Korea wasn’t paying enough. But Trump never had a deal in which South Korea agreed to pay “$Billions” for the entire cost of the American military presence on the Korean peninsula. Since no such deal was ever reached, Biden did not “[give] it away.” The only one-year deal reached during the Trump administration raised South Korea’s contribution by 8.2%, slightly less than the average increase in the first year of such agreements over the last several decades.
Editor’s note: FactCheck.org does not accept advertising. We rely on grants and individual donations from people like you. Please consider a donation. Credit card donations may be made through our “Donate” page. If you prefer to give by check, send to: FactCheck.org, Annenberg Public Policy Center, 202 S. 36th St., Philadelphia, PA 19104.
factcheck.org · by Robert Farley · February 24, 2023
14.
De Oppresso Liber,
David Maxwell
Senior Fellow, Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation
Senior Advisor, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy
Editor, Small Wars Journal
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
Phone: 202-573-8647
email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com
| 
