05/20/2022
Wheat prices continued to tumble today. Chart signals are changing; momentum has reversed, and the Algos are chasing the market lower. End users are content to let prices come to them, leaving both domestic and export demand soft. The mills will return at some point, as they lack needed coverage currently, but they have thus far been able to allow the market to work in their favor after Kansas City knocked on the door of record high prices earlier this week. The hard red winter wheat crop still has its problems, and the spring wheat crop faces challenges as well. But there’s really nothing to step in front of the selling currently, allowing momentum to weigh further on prices in the near-term.

The 2022 Wheat Quality Council’s Hard Red Winter Wheat Tour across Kansas wrapped up yesterday. The three-day average yield for the fields that were calculated was 39.7 bushels per acre. While an estimated 7.4 million acres of wheat were planted in the fall, the Kansas wheat crop varies in condition based on planting dates and amount of moisture received.

The official tour projection for total wheat production harvested in Kansas is 261 million bushels vs the 271 million bushels that the USDA printed last week. It is interesting to note that those 271 million bushels number were derived using only a 6% abandonment rate. Estimates have been made that the abandonment rate in Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas has the potential to be a lot higher than that.
The next two weeks show a drier trend for the northwestern Midwest, although the northern Red River Valley along the border of Minnesota and North Dakota will continue to see problems getting this year’s crops planted if the forecast verifies. Yet, much of the area should see late progress in seeding this year’s crops. The greatest concern will be corn acres in the Red River Valley. The scattered nature of these storms should allow progress to continue in areas that see wider windows of opportunity. Most acres are expected to get planted. 
Farmers Coop Agronomy has a way to help our customers keep their sprayers in the field the hours and days they need. Want more information? Call 308-487-5219 or 308-282-0638.

For all your grain marketing needs call Farmers Coop 308-487-3325.