Despite government budget strains, countries should prioritise investment in schools with the help of the international community. Demographic transition may be the biggest single opportunity for the economies of sub-Saharan Africa, but countries will only be able to enjoy the dividends if they make sufficient investment in education. The region’s population is poised to double to 2 billion by 2050. As the Chart of the Week shows, that expansion will be led by growth in the working-age population of those ages 15 to 64 that will outpace other age groups and drive almost all the increase. By 2050, the working-age population will be expanding in sub-Saharan Africa, but contracting in the rest of the world. Click here to read full report derived from imf.org.

Access fees for private train operators could be reduced depending on regulators and Treasury. Transnet has made it clear it is open to negotiations on the controversial access fees it proposed for private operators to put trains on its networks, saying these could be reduced depending on the outcome of discussions with regulators and the Treasury. Government policy and the new freight rail road map envisage parts of Transnet’s 21,200km rail network opening up to private participation. Transnet is said to have been under severe pressure to fast-track this. But industry players described the access fees and tariffs proposed in the draft network statement and tariff proposal that Transnet issued in March as way too high to encourage new private operators on the lines. Read full article first published in businesslive.co.za here.

Agricultural analysts have remained optimistic that South Africa is not in a crisis, in spite of the damage to crops that occurred in February and March during the heatwave and the El Niño-induced dryness. The Agricultural Business Chamber (Agbiz) chief economist Wandile Sihlobo on Friday said the recent drought presented upside risks to food price inflation, but not the overall basket. “The challenge is primarily the white maize, especially considering the potentially more robust regional demand later in the year,” Sihlobo said. “The favourable supplies of other grains in the world market, mainly yellow maize (also rice and wheat), and the moderating prices mean South Africa could be slightly cushioned in these commodities.” Read full article first published on iol.co.za here.

There was a moment during the state capture years of South African president Jacob Zuma’s term in office (2009 to 2018) when the veil finally slipped. There had been quiet rumblings against the country’s constitution for many years. But now a senior figure in the ruling African National Congress – its chief whip in the National Assembly, Mathole Motshekga – gave public expression to the notion that when judges overturned decisions of the government they were undermining democracy by thwarting the will of the majority. As I watched a 2014 parliamentary ad hoc committee debate the Public Protector’s report on spending for Zuma’s private home, I realised that this might be a critical time for the notion of constitutionalism in modern South Africa. Click here to read full article by Richard Calland for theconversation.com.

Agbiz, in partnership with Kwanalu, organized a workshop aimed at equipping members of the farming community with strategies to cope with instability and unrest, drawing from the experiences of the July 2021 unrest in KZN. The workshop sought to facilitate learning from past challenges and foster collaboration to build resilient communities capable of addressing and preventing future upheavals. Pannar Seed kindly hosted and sponsored the workshop. Sandy la Marque from Kwanalu provided insights into the events of the July 2021 unrest, emphasising the pivotal role played by organised agriculture during the crisis. Click here to read full report by Agricultural Economist and Policy Analyst Thapelo Machaba.

Many, including ourselves, may have been a bit pessimistic about the 2023/24 summer crop growing conditions when we signalled a potential further downward revision of the harvest estimate this month. The data released this afternoon by the Crop Estimates Committee showed mild upward adjustments in the crop size from last month's figures. South Africa's 2023/24 summer grains and oilseed harvest is estimated at 16,0 million tonnes, up 1% from last month. Indeed, this is not a cause for celebration. The figure does not change the reality that we have been through a challenging season of El Niño-induced drought and heatwave in February and March that weighed on the summer grains and oilseed harvest in various regions of the country. The current estimated harvest of 16,0 million tonnes is down 20% from the 2022/23 production season. Click here to read full report by Agbiz Chief Economist Wandile Sihlobo.

After a scorching summer season that led to significant crop failure, the El Niño cycle seems to have ended. The major weather forecasters, such as the International Research Institute for Climate and Society and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, recently confirmed this view. We are currently in a neutral state, where neither El Niño nor La Niña is active. While an end to an El Niño is always welcome development, it comes at a time when the 2023/24 summer crop season is on its tail end. Therefore, this update on weather conditions will not have a material impact on harvest prospects. If anything, ending an El Niño cycle would mean a normal transition into a winter season. Such normal weather conditions would favour the drying up of mature crops in the summer crop-growing regions, as well as improved harvesting conditions. It would also mean normal to favourable weather conditions for the winter crop-growing regions. Click here to read full report by Wandile Sihlobo.

There are divergent views about the effectiveness and extent to which South Africa's agricultural policies have been implemented. Regardless of how experts feel about the capacity of the state and the policy stance of the South African government since the dawn of democracy, the one undeniable fact is that the sector has grown tremendously. Data from the Department of Agriculture, Land Reform and Rural Development show that domestic agricultural output in 2022/23 was twice as much as in 1993/94. Whether this growth has been inclusive and transformative is a question I will return to later in this piece. For now, it's important to emphasize the growth of the industry and the drivers of its expansion. Significantly, this expansion was not driven by a few sectors but has been widespread -- livestock, horticulture and field crops have all seen strong growth over this period. Read full article for businesslive.co.za here, alternatively listen to Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo on the same topic here. 

South Africa’s Road network faces strain, but solutions like the Freight Logistics Roadmap offer promise if implemented effectively. The plan, approved by the Cabinet in 2023, aims to transform the rail freight sector through institutional reforms and private sector involvement. Key priorities include establishing an infrastructure manager and involving Agbiz Grain in prioritizing branch lines. The roadmap emphasizes private sector participation, particularly through the network access statement and encouraging private companies to maintain branch lines. These proposals offer agribusinesses a cost-effective alternative to road transport. Agbiz and its members are actively contributing to improving the rail transport environment. Click here to read full article by Agbiz Grain General Manager, Wessel Lemmer.

Discover more and sign up for the 2024 Agbiz Congress through our event website, where you'll find extensive details and information about this crucial gathering. Explore the website to stay informed and reserve your place at this indispensable event. Get all the details and register for the 2024 Agbiz Congress here.

Trade has been a linchpin for supporting both rural and urban communities in SA, bolstering incomes and creating jobs. Since the advent of democracy in 1994, SA has successfully opened up new markets, entering crucial free trade agreements with key regional and international partners. In particular, the agricultural sector, a cornerstone of the Western Cape economy, heavily relies on international trade to sustain farm profitability and spur job growth. Around half of the country's produce is designated for export, making international ventures integral to economic success. However, recent economic challenges have emerged due to geopolitical tensions and an overreliance on a limited number of markets. Read full report by wesgro.co.za here. 

Production prospects for the 2024 cereal crops across Southern Africa have taken a sharp downturn since the beginning of the year. This reflects an extended period of widespread and substantial rainfall deficits in February, exacerbated by record high temperatures, a particularly damaging combination for crops. Considering the harvest period is expected to commence in May, the likelihood of a recovery is negligible. Cereal harvests, predominantly made up of maize, are therefore expected at below-average levels in 2024, with several areas likely to experience extensive crop failures. Drought emergencies have already been declared by the governments of Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe. Click here to read full GIEWS Special Alert No. 352 - Southern Africa, 23 April 2024 by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. 

In March 2024, the Council of the European Union and European Parliament concluded negotiations on the EU’s Packaging and Packaging Regulation. The current text is going through a legal review but is now de-facto final and is expected to be formally adopted in the coming months. The Regulation introduces waste reduction targets and requires that all packaging placed on the EU market is recyclable and carries recycling labelling. The Regulation also introduces new requirements for packaging minimization, minimum recycled content in plastic packaging, re-use targets for packaging, and bans certain packaging formats. On November 30, 2022, the European Commission published its proposal for a Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation (PPWR) as part of the European Green Deal. Click here to read full Policy and Program Announcements report by the USDA.

Sub-Saharan Africa holds vast reserves of critical minerals crucial for clean energy technologies. With proper management, this transition could drive transformative growth in the region. Already a key player in global mineral production, Sub-Saharan Africa stands to benefit significantly from rising demand. However, to maximise gains, countries must move beyond raw material exports and invest in local processing industries. Coordinated regional policies and domestic reforms are essential to attract investment, foster innovation, and ensure sustainable development. By harnessing its mineral wealth, Sub-Saharan Africa can pave the way for a prosperous and resilient future. Click here to read full article by IMF Country Focus. 

The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) of the EU aims to equalise carbon prices for imported goods, impacting African exports significantly. Concerns arise over its unilateral nature and legality under global trade laws. Least-developed countries (LDCs) in Africa are expected to suffer the most. The CBAM's transitional phase offers a window for negotiation, urging the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) to engage with the EU for a fairer deal. Recommendations include exemptions for African countries, increased climate finance, and technology transfers. Collaborative efforts can mitigate the CBAM's adverse effects and promote sustainable trade practices. Click here to read full article for the South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA). 

Last year, the European Parliament adopted regulations aimed at slowing down the rate of deforestation around the world. From December this year, companies that export cattle, cocoa, coffee, palm-oil, soya, rubber, charcoal or paper products to the EU will require a comprehensive set of documents proving that the supply of these products to not contribute to deforestation in their country of origin. Make no mistake, deforestation is a global challenge and research indicates that an area the size of Europe was stripped of its forests between 1990 and 2020. Aside from pressures brought by growing populations, commercial deforestation is largely market-driven and the regulations seek to reverse the trend through an intervention in the European market. As an environmentalist myself, I fully appreciate the need for sustainable use. However, the decision will have unavoidable economic consequences for various developing countries. Read full article by Agbiz CEO Theo Boshoff for Farmers Weekly here.

The first quarter saw Peru struggling with its mango season, leading to shortages and record prices in Europe. Brazil filled the gap by diverting local supply to exports, especially to Europe. The Dominican Republic anticipates a 15% increase in mango production in 2024. North America faces reduced mango supply, with Mexico dominating shipments and strong demand leading up to Cinco de Mayo. China experienced plummeting mango prices due to early harvests caused by hot weather. Taiwan's Pingtung mangoes reached peak production, aided by new cold chain facilities. Spain's mango regions see improved water conditions. Germany and Italy faced limited supply, resulting in significant price rises. Brazilian Palmer mangoes gained attention in the Netherlands after shortages of Peruvian mangoes. Click here to read full article derived from freshplaza.com.

Attendees at the recent South African leg of the GLOBALG.A.P. Tour were briefed on the evolution of GLOBALG.A.P. standards by senior technical expert Brian Windsor. He emphasised the standards' adaptability to diverse farming experiences and the need for producer engagement for collective benefit. The GLOBALG.A.P. Integrated Farm Assurance (IFA) Version 6 prioritises a farm's role within its broader ecosystem, with over 200,000 certified producers worldwide covering four million hectares of land. Version 6 introduces a more flexible approach, focusing on outcome-based principles rather than strict criteria, reflecting the unique practices of each farm. Producers are now tasked with demonstrating their commitment to biodiversity, waste management, and worker wellbeing, fostering continuous improvement and accountability. Click here to read full article first published in FreshPlaza.com.

The City of Cape Town has welcomed as “long overdue” the announcement this week that Transnet is seeking a private partner for development at the port. Mayoral committee member for economic growth James Vos said the notice signalled a shift to improve productivity at the port. “The port’s well-documented inefficiencies have long been a burden on many South Africans, from exporters struggling to reach offshore clients to ordinary citizens ultimately paying the surcharges on delayed imported products,” Vos said. “Transnet’s notice this week is monumental, signalling a significant shift towards boosting outputs at the Port of Cape Town.” This comes after Transnet National Ports Authority issued a call for interested parties to submit bids to acquire, operate, maintain, refurbish, or construct and transfer a liquid bulk terminal at the port for a 25-year concession period. Read full article derived from freightnews.co.za here.

Organisation says the rules lack focus on food safety, food loss, waste prevention, and will raise trade concerns. New packaging rules adopted by the European Parliament ”raise serious trade and food safety concerns”, according to the US-based Alliance for Sustainable Packaging for Foods (ASPF). In a statement, the Alliance said that if the rules were endorsed by the EU Council later this year, they would almost certainly negatively impact global supply chains and food security ”at a time when more than 37m Europeans cannot afford a quality meal every second day”. Secondary impacts of the new rules would include fewer healthy food choices available to consumers, it noted. ”The Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation (PPWR) prohibits even those single-use packaging options that were scientifically designed to maintain quality, safety and freshness of perishable commodities,” said ASPF. Click here to read full article derived from fruitnet.com.

South African fresh produce multinational Capespan has announced the resignation of its managing director Tonie Fuchs. Fuchs will be replaced by Charl du Bois on 1 August, following what the group called a “structured handover”. “Capespan is entering a new phase of development and growth on the back of the group’s recent successes and supported by our new shareholders,” said Fuchs. ”I believe this presents the ideal opportunity for Capespan to embrace new executive leadership and is the reason why I decided to step down. “Capespan and its people have been an important part of my life for eleven years,” he explained. ”But I believe this is the right time to step down, especially in the knowledge that I can hand the reigns over to someone of Charl’s calibre.” Read full article derived from fruitnet.com here.

In the latest edition of Fresh Quarterly, you will get a summary of the most pertinent information as well as reminders of important upcoming events. Please click here to peruse.

The Citrus Growers' Association of Southern Africa (CGA), shares the latest news in the citrus industry in its weekly update, From the desk of the CEO. Please click here to peruse. 

• Agbiz is the only organisation that serves the broader and common over-arching business interests of agribusinesses in South Africa.
• Agbiz addresses the legislative and policy environment on the many fronts that it impacts on the agribusiness environment.
• Agbiz facilitates considerable top-level networking opportunities so that South African agribusinesses can play an active and creative role within the local and international organised business environment.
• Agbiz research provides sector-specific information for informed decision-making.
• Agbiz newsletter publishes members' press releases and member product announcements.