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April 26, 2024
The true strength of American power and capacity to drive geopolitics was on display this week when the U.S. Congress -- after months and months of languishing -- finally passed a $95 billion foreign aid assistance bill. The benefit goes not only to three of America’s most beleaguered allies – $26 billion to Israel, $2 billion to Taiwan (as part of an $8 billion Indo-Pacific Security Supplement), and $61 billion to Ukraine – it at last also serves as a message to America’s allies and adversaries that the United States is both willing and able to continue to play a critical role in international global security.
The U.S. awarded a sum of $61 billion to Ukraine that equals the entirety of the aid the U.S. has provided since the beginning of Russia’s invasion in 2022. And in so doing, the U.S. greatly improves the prospects of Ukraine’s future. Without this aid, Russia looked likely to make significant advances on Ukrainian forces who were running dangerously low on ammunition and to continue to obliterate the Ukrainian power grid, which has nearly paralyzed both the war effort and the much of the economy of Ukraine. In fact, without this aid, there was a significant risk that there would be a collapse of Ukrainian forces before year’s end. Now, Ukraine will cease having to ration munitions and can better resist Russian advances on the ground. Moreover, it will soon have air defenses to better protect its front lines and infrastructure as well ATACMS missiles, which will allow the Ukrainians to make new and formidable strategic offensive actions. Separate from the aid bill, the U.S. importantly has also authorized the use of F-16s in Ukraine and the arrival of those planes from European allies along with trained pilots will alter Russia’s aerial advantage. This alone is a strong message that Putin's nuclear saber rattling isn't curtailing Ukraine's allies from providing the sophisticated military support Ukraine needs.
But perhaps most importantly, this legislative action now deprives Russia of its most optimal position that it has had since the beginning of the war. In recent months, Putin seemed to be projecting in the face of dithering Western support that with his massive military spending (more than 6% of Russian GDP and over 30% of Russia’s budget) that Russian political will was unstoppable and that a Ukrainian defeat was inevitable. Now the calculus has changed. Given that this bill passed with bipartisan support, Putin must question the validity of his strategy that waiting it out for a loss of U.S. popular political support will result in a shift in U.S. policy in his favor. And while this funding is likely insufficient to secure a Ukrainian victory, it does much to avert a Russian one and puts additional pressure on the stability of his regime.
Furthermore, Russia has a growing security risk in the North Caucasus as Chechnyan dictator Ramzan Kadyrov is reportedly dying and a reliable successor may be hard to find in a region with a history of complex sectarian and ethnic conflicts, posing a heightened risk for instability in an area of strategic importance for Russia. In the short term, expect Russia to make as much progress that it can ahead of rearmament shipments for Ukraine and its annual May 9th Victory Day celebrations when Putin will want to project military might in whatever way he can. Though likely to be underwhelming, in any case, it will do nothing to improve his image abroad or at home.
In the wake of everything that followed on from Hamas’ attack on Israel, Russia and China have been taking advantage of the world’s diverted attention and have been quietly pursuing their strategic goals to shore up global influence. Meanwhile, North Korea and Iran seem to be cozying up to trade missile and nuclear technology as they continue to send armaments to Russia for use in Ukraine. So, it is no understatement to say that this U.S. foreign aid package breathes fresh life into the Ukrainian war against Russia and the greater struggle for the Western democratic order and to reassure our allies that we will stay the course.
The Arkin Group is a strategic intelligence firm offering investigative research, due diligence, international risk and crisis consulting, and security & preparedness services. We can be contacted at 212-333-0280.
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