Informal Institute for National Security Thinkers and Practitioners



Quotes of the Day:


“But I don't want comfort. I want God, I want poetry, I want real danger, I want freedom, I want goodness. I want sin.”
- Aldous Huxley, Brave New World

"Is any man afraid of change? What can take place without change? What then is more pleasing or more suitable to the universal nature? And can you take a hot bath unless the wood for the fire undergoes a change? And can you be nourished unless the food undergoes a change? And can anything else that is useful be accomplished without change? Do you not see then that for yourself also to change is just the same, and equally necessary for the universal nature?"
- Marcus Aurelius

“I never learned from a man who agreed with me.”
- Robert A. Heinlein




1. Joint Press Statement for the 21st Korea-U.S. Integrated Defense Dialogue

2. Yoon’s Strong Start in Foreign Policy

3. Memorial ceremony at JSA honors two American service members slain by N. Korean soldiers; marking 46th anniversary

4. America and South Korea restart their big military drills

5. North Korea tells South Korean president to 'shut his mouth' after offer of aid

6. N. Korea rejects S. Korea's 'audacious initiative' in statement by leader's sister

7. S. Korea, U.S. voice regret over N. Korea in high-level phone talks

8. Presidential office expresses regret over N. Korea's 'rude' remarks on Yoon

9. U.S. agrees with taking 'incremental steps' to denuclearize Korean Peninsula: State Dept.

10. China expands its military training locations in South China Sea

11. If N. Korea reins itself in, it will help ease sanctions, says Minister Park Jin

12. North Korea refuses to form ties with Yoon-led South Korea: experts

13. S. Korea seeks to maximize national interest at IPEF negotiations

14. North Korean ‘volunteers’ to fight in Ukraine?

15. US, South Korea to Resume Military Exercises

16. Seoul and Washington must not blink in the face of Pyongyang’s nuclear blackmail

17. Why North Korea Might Reject Yoon Suk-yeol’s Audacious Initiative




1. Joint Press Statement for the 21st Korea-U.S. Integrated Defense Dialogue


Appears that a lot of ground was covered in this meeting.



Joint Press Statement for the 21st Korea-U.S. Integrated Defense Dialogue

defense.gov

The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) and the Republic of Korea (ROK) Ministry of National Defense (MND) held the 21st Korea-U.S. Integrated Defense Dialogue (KIDD) August 16-17, 2022 in Seoul, Republic of Korea.

Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense (DASD) for East Asia, Dr. Siddharth Mohandas, led the U.S. delegation. Deputy Minister for National Defense Policy (DEPMIN), Dr. Heo Tae-keun led the ROK delegation. Key senior U.S. and ROK defense and foreign affairs officials also participated. In addition, Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Space Policy Dr. Vipin Narang and Dr. Mohandas together co-chaired the Deterrence Strategy Committee (DSC) session of the KIDD with DEPMIN Heo.

U.S. and ROK officials reaffirmed a shared goal of the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and pledged that U.S. and ROK combined forces would remain ready and postured to defend the ROK.

The leaders discussed the DPRK threat, particularly the increased volume and scale of DPRK missile tests over the course of the last year. With this in mind, and considering the evolving threat posed by the DPRK, both leaders committed to expanding the scope and scale of combined military exercises and training on and around the Korean Peninsula—starting with Ulchi Freedom Shield next week—to bolster combined readiness. They also affirmed the importance of full implementation of relevant United Nations (UN) Security Council Resolutions by the international community.

Both sides shared their assessments of activities at the DPRK’s Punggye-ri nuclear testing site. The two sides affirmed that, should the DPRK conduct a nuclear test, the ROK and the U.S. will engage in a strong and firm bilateral response, to include options to deploy U.S. strategic assets to the region.

DASD Mohandas and DEPMIN Heo co-chaired the KIDD Executive Session. In this session, the two leaders acknowledged an increasingly complex regional and global security environment.

The two leaders reaffirmed the importance of adherence to a rules-based international order based on international laws and norms, including those of freedom of navigation and overflight, and pledged close cooperation to meet regional challenges. They discussed recent unlawful and unsafe actions that complicated the implementation of UN Security Council resolutions concerning the DPRK. The two leaders affirmed their commitment to maintaining peace and stability, lawful unimpeded commerce, and international laws including freedom of navigation and overflight and other lawful use of the seas, including in the South China Sea and beyond, as reflected in the ROK-U.S. Leaders’ Joint Statement in May 2022. The two leaders also reinforced the importance of preserving peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. They pledged to continue promoting defense and security cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region. To that end, the two leaders committed to continue to closely collaborate so that the ROK Indo-Pacific strategy framework and the U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy contribute to peace and stability in the region.

Both sides affirmed the critical role that the ROK-Japan General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA) continues to play in enabling bilateral cooperation between the ROK and Japan, as well as trilateral security cooperation among the ROK, United States, and Japan. Both leaders noted that trilateral cooperation among the three countries is critical for advancing shared security interests in the Indo-Pacific region, and committed to further strengthening cooperation. They acknowledged the progress made during the recent Trilateral Ministerial Meeting in Singapore and pledged to deepen cooperation through mechanisms such as the annual Defense Trilateral Talks. They also positively assessed the recently conducted Pacific Dragon multilateral missile tracking exercise, which in addition to the United States, ROK, and Japan, also included Australia and Canada.

Finally, both sides applauded recent progress made to improve access to the U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) site and acknowledged the importance of the Alliance’s missile defense architecture in defending the ROK people—as well as U.S. and ROK deployed forces—particularly considering recent DPRK missile tests.

During the DSC, the two sides acknowledged progress toward revising the ROK-U.S. Tailored Deterrence Strategy (TDS), as discussed at the 53rd Security Consultative Meeting (SCM).They also affirmed that the TDS is being revised into a flexible, robust document that is aligned with the US National Defense Strategy, Nuclear Posture Review and Missile Defense Review. The DS will enable effective deterrence of the DPRK’s nuclear, other WMD and non-nuclear capabilities with strategic effects amidst a dynamic security environment of the region.

U.S. officials reaffirmed the ironclad U.S. commitment to the defense of the ROK, leveraging the full range of U.S. military capabilities—to include nuclear, conventional, missile defense, and other advanced non-nuclear capabilities. ROK officials emphasized that the Korean 3K(Kill Chain, KAMD, KMPR) Defense System will be strengthened to deter and counter advancing DPRK nuclear and missile threats.

In addition, the leaders committed to hold the Extended Deterrence Strategy and Consultation Group (EDSCG) in September 2022, and conduct a DSC tabletop exercise (TTX)in the near future.

Both sides also committed to engage in closer policy coordination and communication to strengthen Alliance counter-missile capability and posture, and pledged to launch a Counter-Missile Working Group (CMWG) within the DSC to this end.

At the Security Policy Initiative (SPI), both sides reaffirmed that the U.S.-ROK Alliance remains the linchpin of peace and security on the Korean Peninsula and in the Northeast Asia region.

DASD Mohandas and DEPMIN Heo noted combined training and exercises as well as stable, unfettered access to training facilities and bases are critical to maintaining a combined defense posture that is ready to “fight tonight.”

The leaders pledged to continue to implement the Yongsan Relocation Plan and acknowledged progress made over the past year.

Additionally, they pledged to deepen and expand Alliance cooperation in the space and cyber domains to effectively prepare for emerging threats. In particular, they applauded the ROK-U.S. Space Policy Joint Study, which was agreed upon at the 18th Space Cooperation Working Group (SCWG).

To continue to improve interoperability into the future, both sides committed to continue to enhance cooperation in the defense industrial space, as well as research and development. In particular, they committed to explore ROK-U.S. science and technology cooperation in various high-tech domains such as space, quantum, cyber defense, artificial intelligence, automation as well as cooperative measures in the area of 5G and next-generation mobile communications (6G).

During the Conditions-based Operational Control (OPCON) Transition Working Group (COTWG), DASD Mohandas and DEPMIN Heo acknowledged the progress made towards the transition of wartime OPCON to the Future Combined Forces Command (F-CFC) and reaffirmed a mutual commitment to meeting the three conditions under the bilaterally approved Conditions-based OPCON Transition Plan (COTP).

In particular, they applauded the completion of the Joint Study on COTP capabilities and all accompanying annexes.

U.S. and ROK leaders assessed that the 21st KIDD reaffirmed close Alliance bonds, bolstered Alliance coordination, and strengthened the U.S.-ROK combined defense posture.

Based on these outcomes, the two sides pledged to continue progress leading up to the 54th Security Consultative Meeting, scheduled for November 2022.

defense.gov

2. Yoon’s Strong Start in Foreign Policy


Excerpts:

Meanwhile, Yoon has not allowed pressure from China and North Korea to prevent the resumption of full-scale military exercises between the United States and South Korea, which then-U.S. President Donald Trump had suspended after his Singapore summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in 2018. The biggest such military exercise in years—Ulchi Freedom Shield—will begin in and around Seoul on Aug. 22 involving large numbers of U.S. and South Korean aircraft, warships, tanks, and troops.
Applying further pressure on North Korea, Yoon has also appointed a special ambassador for North Korean human rights for the first time in five years, even as the Biden administration has left its own North Korea human rights envoy position vacant despite vowing to fill it. The Moon administration, by contrast, left the North Korean human rights issue on the back burner for fear of jeopardizing inter-Korea relations—even passing legislation that formally prohibited civilians from flying anti-North Korea leaflets by balloon toward North Korea.



Yoon’s Strong Start in Foreign Policy

Foreign Policy · by Sue Mi Terry · August 18, 2022

Analysis

Despite domestic setbacks, the new South Korean president’s diplomacy has been a success.

By Sue Mi Terry, director of the Asia Program and the Hyundai Motor-Korea Foundation Center for Korean History and Public Policy at the Wilson Center.

South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol waves a national flag during a celebration of the 77th National Liberation Day in Seoul on Aug. 15.

South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol waves a national flag during a celebration of the 77th National Liberation Day in Seoul on Aug. 15. Ahn Young-Joon - Pool/Getty Images

South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol, a conservative who was elected in March, has just passed his 100th day in office. In that time, the new leader’s popularity has plummeted. In a Gallup Korea poll conducted in early August, only 24 percent of respondents approved of Yoon’s leadership—while 66 percent disapproved. His predecessor, Moon Jae-in, had a 45 percent approval rating when he left office in May.

Yoon’s low approval rating is largely due to domestic setbacks. His troubles include high energy prices, high inflation, and a record rainfall in early August that killed 11 people across the country. The public has also not been happy with Yoon’s appointment of former prosecutors to office, and his People Power Party has been tainted by various scandals. The party’s leader, Lee Jun-seok, for example, was handed a six-month suspension last month over allegations he accepted sexual favors as bribes on two instances in 2013. The latest hit to Yoon’s popularity came from a proposal to lower the school entry age by one year—from age 6 to age 5—to compel people to complete their education earlier and thereby expand the work force. This proposal proved so unpopular that Yoon’s education minister was forced to resign.

But, while South Koreans have been focused on domestic policy controversies, Yoon has quietly racked up an array of foreign-policy accomplishments that have strengthened the U.S.-South Korean alliance and elevated South Korea’s standing in the world, which were two of his major campaign promises. In a departure from the previous administration—which pursued a policy of hedging between the United States and China—Yoon and his aides said during the campaign that South Korea’s relationship with China needed to be built on greater mutual respect, and they promised to draw closer to the United States.

South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol, a conservative who was elected in March, has just passed his 100th day in office. In that time, the new leader’s popularity has plummeted. In a Gallup Korea poll conducted in early August, only 24 percent of respondents approved of Yoon’s leadership—while 66 percent disapproved. His predecessor, Moon Jae-in, had a 45 percent approval rating when he left office in May.

Yoon’s low approval rating is largely due to domestic setbacks. His troubles include high energy prices, high inflation, and a record rainfall in early August that killed 11 people across the country. The public has also not been happy with Yoon’s appointment of former prosecutors to office, and his People Power Party has been tainted by various scandals. The party’s leader, Lee Jun-seok, for example, was handed a six-month suspension last month over allegations he accepted sexual favors as bribes on two instances in 2013. The latest hit to Yoon’s popularity came from a proposal to lower the school entry age by one year—from age 6 to age 5—to compel people to complete their education earlier and thereby expand the work force. This proposal proved so unpopular that Yoon’s education minister was forced to resign.

But, while South Koreans have been focused on domestic policy controversies, Yoon has quietly racked up an array of foreign-policy accomplishments that have strengthened the U.S.-South Korean alliance and elevated South Korea’s standing in the world, which were two of his major campaign promises. In a departure from the previous administration—which pursued a policy of hedging between the United States and China—Yoon and his aides said during the campaign that South Korea’s relationship with China needed to be built on greater mutual respect, and they promised to draw closer to the United States.

On May 21, Yoon had a successful summit with U.S. President Joe Biden in Seoul, where the two men reportedly established a good interpersonal rapport as they bonded over their pets and families. Yoon also announced during the meeting that South Korea would take part in the U.S.-led Indo-Pacific Economic Framework and later agreed to attend preliminary talks to set up an alliance known as “Chip 4” with the United States, Japan, and Taiwan to ensure the security of semiconductor supply chains, despite initial reservations that doing so could anger China. Yoon said South Korea will ultimately decide whether to participate in Chip 4 after the preliminary meeting.

Yoon is expanding South Korea’s alliance with the United States beyond the security realm and into geopolitically charged economic terrain. He seeks expanded cooperation on issues including artificial intelligence, big data, quantum data computing, 5G, and aerospace—a “technological alliance” in part to reduce South Korea’s dependence on China. During Biden’s visit to South Korea, Samsung and Hyundai announced substantial investments in the United States. Two months later, during a visit to the White House, SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won unveiled a $22 billion investment in the United States to expand operations in the fields of semiconductors, green energy, and bioscience. This is expected to create tens of thousands of new jobs in the United States and lessen the reliance of both America and South Korea on semiconductor plants in embattled Taiwan, which lives under the constant threat of Chinese attack.

In June, Yoon flew to Madrid, where he became the first South Korean president to attend a NATO summit. There, NATO leaders dubbed Russia a “direct threat” and China a “systemic challenge.” Even though Yoon did not sign the NATO statement, his presence signaled that South Korea was aligning with the West. Yoon also held a brief meeting with Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida on the sidelines to improve Seoul’s bilateral relations with Tokyo, which have been at a low point in recent years.

Following the NATO summit, the two countries’ foreign ministers have met several times, and, at a July 18 meeting, they agreed to coordinate on their North Korea policy and find a resolution to the thorny issue of forced Korean labor during World War II, which has strained bilateral relations in the recent years. On Monday, Yoon pledged to improve ties with Japan based on a 1998 declaration signed by both countries’ leaders to advance South Korean-Japanese relations through political, security, economic, and cultural exchanges.

While there are limits to how far Yoon can go in confronting China, which remains South Korea’s leading trade partner, he has made it known—much to Beijing’s displeasure—that he will not abide by his predecessor’s “three noes” policy: no additional Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) deployment, no participation in the U.S. missile defense network, and no trilateral military alliance with the United States and Japan. Yoon has described THAAD deployments as a means of self-defense, vital to South Korean security and “not negotiable” with China. Further improving their missile defenses, South Korean forces took part in missile tracking and warning exercises with U.S. and Japanese forces off the coast of Hawaii from Aug. 8 to 14.

Meanwhile, Yoon has not allowed pressure from China and North Korea to prevent the resumption of full-scale military exercises between the United States and South Korea, which then-U.S. President Donald Trump had suspended after his Singapore summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in 2018. The biggest such military exercise in years—Ulchi Freedom Shield—will begin in and around Seoul on Aug. 22 involving large numbers of U.S. and South Korean aircraft, warships, tanks, and troops.

Applying further pressure on North Korea, Yoon has also appointed a special ambassador for North Korean human rights for the first time in five years, even as the Biden administration has left its own North Korea human rights envoy position vacant despite vowing to fill it. The Moon administration, by contrast, left the North Korean human rights issue on the back burner for fear of jeopardizing inter-Korea relations—even passing legislation that formally prohibited civilians from flying anti-North Korea leaflets by balloon toward North Korea.


South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol greets a soccer player.

South Korea’s Presidential Snub of Pelosi Was an Unforced Blunder

Yoon Suk-yeol simply isn’t up to international diplomacy.

Yoon’s one misstep in foreign affairs so far came when he snubbed U.S. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi during her visit to Seoul from Aug. 3 to 4. Although Yoon held a 40-minute phone call with Pelosi, he did not see her in person or send an official delegation to greet her when she landed in Seoul. Some ascribed Yoon’s decision to his desire to avoid offending China, as Pelosi had just come from her controversial and high-profile visit to Taiwan. Yoon maintains he was simply intent on sticking with his staycation in Seoul, away from official business.

Even if Yoon did not intend to snub Pelosi, this was still a tone-deaf move. The South Korean president risked offending one of the most powerful figures in U.S. politics while giving the impression that, after promising to be tougher on China, he was bending over backward not to offend Beijing.

The Pelosi incident aside, Yoon is still taking steps to toward fulfilling his promise to expand South Korea’s role in the Indo-Pacific and deepening the trilateral relationship among South Korea, the United States, and Japan. Yoon’s first 100 days may have seen turmoil on the domestic front, but his foreign policy is moving in the right direction.

Sue Mi Terry is director of the Asia Program and the Hyundai Motor-Korea Foundation Center for Korean History and Public Policy at the Wilson Center. Twitter: @SueMiTerry

Foreign Policy · by Sue Mi Terry · August 18, 2022



3. Memorial ceremony at JSA honors two American service members slain by N. Korean soldiers; marking 46th anniversary


Video at the link: http://www.arirang.co.kr/News/News_View.asp?nseq=305934


A reminder of the brutality of the Kim family regime.


Of note one of the personal paying respects in the video was a Korean Service Corp member. Note he is wearing a uniform. The KSC harkens back to the "A Frame" Army during the Korean War - Korean men who provided logistics support to the US Army carrying ammunition and supplies up the mountains to US troops. I believe that the tree trimming at JSA was to be carried out by members of the KSC. The KSC continues to support the US military today. Although KATUSAs (Korean Augmentees to the U SArmy) are perhaps better known the KSC made important contributions during the Korean War their legacy remains with the current KSC memes throughout US Army installations in Korea.



Memorial ceremony at JSA honors two American service members slain by N. Korean soldiers; marking 46th anniversary

Updated: 2022-08-18 17:20:18 KST

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46 years ago today, two U.S. soldiers guarding the border between South and North Korea were brutally axed to death, while trimming a tree inside the demilitarized zone.

To honor their ultimate sacrifice, the annual memorial ceremony was held today at the Joint Security Area in South Korea.

Our defense correspondent Bae Eun-ji has more.


On August 18th, 1976, two American soldiers from the United Nations Command Captain Arthur Bonifas and First Lieutenant Mark Barrett were dispatched to the DMZ to trim a poplar tree that was blocking the view from a watch tower near the 'Bridge of No Return'.

Soon after they started, North Korean soliders ordered them to stop and when the Americans refused, they were attacked with axes.

They were killed, and the attack also left four other U.S. soldiers and four South Korean service members injured.

What was orignally a simple task almost sparked a second war on the Korean Peninsula.

The U.S. launched a massive military operation a few days after the attack, that involved hundreds of troops, B-52 bombers, fighter jets and an aircraft carrier.

To honor the fallen heroes, the annual memorial service was held on Thursday at the Joint Security Area, or Panmunjom, within the demilitarized zone that separates the two Koreas.

Retired Major Kim Moon-hwan the former Korean Augmentation to the U.S. Army who was present at the time of the attack and was a good friend of Bonifas said he remembers the incident like it was just yesterday.


"I saw Captain Bonifas laid down on the ground and I took him in a jeep for evacuation. But severe injury made him to pass away in my arms in DMZ. Lt. Barrett was found in swamp later on but could not be saved because of injury."


Kim was injured, too, by the brutal attack.


"I was beaten in the face, and when I looked up, I saw an ax handle coming down to me, and I blocked that with my left arm."



The U.S. Commander of the second Infantry Division, David Lesperance, who was also at the event, said North Korea still continues to develop capabilities that threaten not only South Korea, but regional allies and partners of the U.S.


"Like them (Bonifas and Barrett), we must strengthen our iron clad commitment to security on the Korean peninsula, which has endured for 72 years and never take it for granted."


During the ceremony, South Korean and U.S. service members laid flowers at the site where the poplar tree once stood and paid their respects to the victims.

Bae Eun-ji, Arirang News, Panmunjom.

Reporter : ejbae@arirang.com




4. America and South Korea restart their big military drills


We should be clear. The regime is not afraid of the exercises and is not demanding they end in turn inr negotiations (though they often imply this and many pundits think this is a worthy trade-off). They use the exercises as the means to set the key condition it needs to exercise its strategy and that is to split the alliance and get US forces off the peninsula. It wants to deny training for US and combined forces to force the withdrawal of US forces - if they cannot train they cannot remain in harm's way.


Excerpt:


As far as America and South Korea are concerned, neither North Korea nor China has any right to grumble. The exercises are defensive and merely a return to the status quo. That does not mean that North Korea will not decry them as a dangerous provocation. Fiery words from north of the 38th parallel are as much part of the status quo as live-fire drills.



America and South Korea restart their big military drills

Donald Trump’s talks with Kim Jong Un, and the pandemic, had put them on hold

The Economist

Aug 18th 2022 | SEOUL

After donald trump met Kim Jong Un in Singapore in 2018, he appeared sympathetic to the North Korean position. Having secured from his counterpart a commitment to the “complete denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula”, and feeling well on the way to a “comprehensive and complete deal”, Mr Trump called for an end to joint military drills between America and South Korea, which started in the 1950s. Not only were they expensive, he claimed, but they were “very provocative”, echoing North Korea’s propagandists.

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Reality set in when talks fell apart at their second meeting, in Hanoi the following year. Yet covid-19 and the lingering hope of rapprochement meant that joint exercises have been cancelled or scaled down ever since. Yoon Suk-yeol, who took over as South Korea’s president in May, has been keen to bring them back. On August 22nd the two armed forces will start their first full-scale drills since 2017.

Led by South Korean generals, tens of thousands of both countries’ troops will be put through their paces until the end of the month, rehearsing scenarios such as responding to the bombing of a nuclear power plant. Such exercises test officers’ decision-making skills and soldiers’ effectiveness in the field in case of an attack from the North. The aim is to drill forces until they know their missions instinctively, says Chun In-bum, a retired South Korean lieutenant-general who has been involved in over 50 joint exercises.

The exercises are also sorely needed, says Clint Work of the Stimson Centre, a think-tank in Washington. Conscripts come and go and officers change roles often, so regular training is necessary to ensure everyone knows their duties. Usually this turnover is staggered, ensuring some continuity. But the long gap since the previous exercises has sapped readiness. And North Korea has been developing new conventional weapons over that period. New threats require new training.

Beyond preparedness, the exercises serve several other purposes. The first is reassurance. North Korea conducted a flurry of missile tests earlier this year and is thought to be on the verge of another nuclear-weapons test. Joint drills show the South Korean public that their government is taking the threat seriously and that America remains engaged. That helps to assuage South Korean fears of abandonment, which feed calls for an indigenous nuclear-weapons programme, something America does not want. Moreover, drills test how ready the South Korean armed forces are to take the lead in military affairs on the peninsula, something the Americans have desired since the 1970s.

Exercises also act as a deterrent, warning North Korea against probing for weaknesses in the South’s armour. But deterrence always comes with risk: it is hard to convey military strength to a thin-skinned regime without antagonising it. On August 17th, as American and South Korean forces were conducting preliminary drills, North Korea test-fired two cruise missiles. General Chun points out that the allies maintained preparedness with small-scale exercises over the past few years without drawing attention to them.

There is also the risk of annoying China. The presence of America in what China sees as its backyard is already a sore point. Mr Yoon managed to sidestep Chinese ire by avoiding Nancy Pelosi, the speaker of America’s lower house, when she stopped in South Korea after visiting Taiwan in early August. But an old quarrel over an American missile-defence system deployed in South Korea has recently reignited. And South Korea not only participated in missile-defence drills with America and Japan this month, but also publicised that fact.

As far as America and South Korea are concerned, neither North Korea nor China has any right to grumble. The exercises are defensive and merely a return to the status quo. That does not mean that North Korea will not decry them as a dangerous provocation. Fiery words from north of the 38th parallel are as much part of the status quo as live-fire drills. ■

This article appeared in the Asia section of the print edition under the headline "Return to form"


From the August 20th 2022 edition

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The Economist



5. North Korea tells South Korean president to 'shut his mouth' after offer of aid



​The bad cop speaks.


North Korea tells South Korean president to 'shut his mouth' after offer of aid

Reuters · by Joori Roh

SEOUL, Aug 19 (Reuters) - North Korea's Kim Yo Jong, the powerful sister of leader Kim Jong Un, said on Friday South Korea's president should "shut his mouth" after he reiterated that his country was willing to provide economic aid in return for nuclear disarmament.

Her comments mark the first time a senior North Korean official has commented directly on what South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol has called an "audacious" plan - first proposed in May and which he talked about again on Wednesday at a news conference to mark his first 100 days in office.

"It would have been more favourable for his image to shut his mouth, rather than talking nonsense as he had nothing better to say," Kim Yo Jong said in a statement released by state news agency KCNA, calling Yoon "really simple and still childish" to think that he could trade economic cooperation for the North's honour and nuclear weapons.


"No one barters its destiny for corn cake," she added.

South Korea's Unification Minister, who handles relations with the North, called Kim's comments "very disrespectful and indecent."

While Yoon has said he is willing to provide phased economic aid to North Korea if it ended nuclear weapons development and began denuclearisation, he has also pushed to increase South Korea's military deterrence against North Korea. South Korea has resumed long-suspended joint drills with the United States, including major field exercises due to begin next week.

1/2

Kim Yo Jong, sister of North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un attends wreath-laying ceremony at Ho Chi Minh Mausoleum in Hanoi, Vietnam March 2, 2019. REUTERS/Jorge Silva/Pool/File Photo

On Wednesday a U.S. State Department spokesman said Washington supports Yoon's policies, but Kim said the joint drills show that the allies' talk of diplomacy is insincere.

"We make it clear that we will not sit face to face with him," she said of Yoon.

Kim Yo Jong has become a vocal critic of South Korea in recent years, seen by some experts as playing "bad cop" to her brother's more subdued statements.

Friday's statement is her harshest personal attack on Yoon to date, but this month she also released a profanity-laced tirade that blamed the South for a COVID-19 outbreak in the North and threatened "deadly retaliation" if there were further occurrences.

Experts say South's latest economic plan is similar to proposals by previous leaders, including those during the summits between the then-U.S. President Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un.

"Yoon's initiative adds to a long list of failed offers involving South Korean promises to provide economic benefits to North Korea ... These were the same assumptions that were behind a succession of failed efforts to jump-start denuclearisation talks," Scott Snyder, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations think tank, said in a blog post on Thursday.

North Korea test-fired two cruise missiles into the sea on Wednesday, the first such test in two months. It came after the country declared victory over COVID-19 last week. read more


Reporting by Joori Roh; Additional reporting by Josh Smith and Soo-hyang Choi; Editing by Richard Pullin and Edwina Gibbs

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Reuters · by Joori Roh



6. N. Korea rejects S. Korea's 'audacious initiative' in statement by leader's sister


Is there anyone out there who is not convinced that the Kim family regime has absolutely no intention of ever giving up its nuclear weapons?



(3rd LD) N. Korea rejects S. Korea's 'audacious initiative' in statement by leader's sister | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by 채윤환 · August 19, 2022

(ATTN: UPDATES with unification ministry's response in paras 10-15; ADDS photo)

By Chae Yun-hwan

SEOUL, Aug. 19 (Yonhap) -- The sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un made clear that her regime will never accept the South Korean government's "audacious initiative" that seeks to help Pyongyang improve its economy in return for denuclearization steps, according to state media Friday.

Kim Yo-jong dismissed the Yoon Suk-yeol administration's plan as the "height of absurdity" and labeled it as nothing but a copy of the former conservative Lee Myung-bak government's approach, dubbed "Vision 3,000: Denuclearization and Opening," which ended in failure more than a decade ago. It was aimed at helping the North increase its per capita income to US$3,000 in a decade through comprehensive aid if it gives up its nuclear program and opens up its borders.

Kim also lambasted Yoon by name, saying "We don't like" him before evaluating Seoul's policy toward Pyongyang in the English-language statement, titled "Don't have an absurd dream" and carried by the North's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).

His scheme is" the height of absurdity as it is an impracticable one to create mulberry fields in the dark blue ocean," said Kim, who is known to be in charge of inter-Korean affairs as vice department director of the Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea.

"Though he may knock at the door with what large plan in the future as his 'bold plan' does not work, we make it clear that we will not sit face to face with him," she said in the lengthy tirade.

It came four days after Yoon used his Liberation Day speech to lay out some details of the plan, one of his key campaign pledges, aimed at helping the impoverished North develop its economy in the event that it takes denuclearization steps. Yoon's offers included a bold program of economic assistance, development and infrastructure investment.


"To think that the plan to barter 'economic cooperation' for our honor, nukes, is the great dream, hope and plan of Yoon, we came to realize that he is really simple and still childish," Kim added. "No one barters its destiny for corn cake."

She accused the South once again of continuing to send "dirty waste" to the North, apparently referring to Pyongyang's claim that the country's COVID-19 outbreak originated from anti-Pyongyang leaflets and other materials sent via large balloons across the border from activist groups in the South.

"Those villains seriously encroaching on our security circumstance by continuing to infiltrate dirty wastes into our territory talk about 'food supply' and 'medical assistance' to inhabitants in the north," she said. "Such deeds will only incite our people's surging hatred and wrath."

The South's unification ministry expressed "strong regret" over Kim's statement, which it said is laden with a "rude expression" distorting the purpose of the "audacious initiative" and criticizing Yoon.

"(The North) rather mentioned its intent on continuing its nuclear development," its deputy spokesperson, Lee Hyo-jung, said during a regular press briefing.

"Such an attitude by North Korea is not just threatening peace on the Korean Peninsula but also leading to the worsening of its international isolation and economic situation," she said and urged Pyongyang to reconsider its position on Seoul's proposal.


Unification Minister Kwon Young-se also voiced regret, speaking to lawmakers at the National Assembly.

"It is very regrettable that (Kim) distorted (the purpose of) the audacious initiative and criticized it with a rude and undignified expression," he said during a parliamentary session.

He added the government will continue efforts with patience to resume dialogue by persuading the North to do so and putting pressure on it if needed.

Kim, meanwhile, also derided the South Korean military's intelligence capabilities, taking issue with its announcement that the North fired two cruise missiles toward the Yellow Sea from the Onchon area, South Pyongan Province, on Wednesday.

The weapon test was carried out actually on the "Kumsong Bridge" in the other provincial area of Anju, she said

"I am curious to know why those always talking about the pursuit surveillance and full preparedness under the close cooperation between south Korea and U.S. could not indicate the launching time and place properly and why they do not open to the public data on the weapon system," she added.

In response, a Seoul defense official said there is no change in a related assessment by the South Korean and U.S. intelligence authorities.

Kim's latest statement comes after she made a speech in a national meeting Wednesday last week that declared the country's victory over COVID-19, where she raised the need to take "deadly retaliatory" countermeasures over the leaflets sent from the South.


yunhwanchae@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by 채윤환 · August 19, 2022



7. S. Korea, U.S. voice regret over N. Korea in high-level phone talks


We regret that the nature, objectives, and strategy (political warfare, blackmail diplomacy and warfighting strategies) of the Kim family regime prevent Kim Jong Un from acting as a responsible member of the international community, caring for the welfare of the Korean people in the north, and bringing peace and security to Northeast Asia.



S. Korea, U.S. voice regret over N. Korea in high-level phone talks | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by 김은정 · August 19, 2022

SEOUL, Aug. 19 (Yonhap) -- The top diplomats of South Korea and the United States held phone talks Friday and expressed regret over North Korea's rejection of Seoul's offer to provide economic aid in exchange for denuclearization steps, the foreign ministry here said.

Foreign Minister Park Jin and his U.S. counterpart, Antony Blinken, discussed the matter hours after reports of Kim Yo-jong, the sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, dismissing President Yoon Suk-yeol's "audacious" initiative as the "height of absurdity."

The two sides "expressed regret" over her statement, the ministry said in a press release.

They also exchanged views on the security situation on the peninsula especially ahead of the start of the allies' annual combined military drills next week.

They agreed to continue close cooperation to deter North Korea from taking provocative acts and lead it to return to dialogue, it added.


ejkim@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by 김은정 · August 19, 2022



8. Presidential office expresses regret over N. Korea's 'rude' remarks on Yoon


The Propaganda and Agitation Department is sustaining the decades old themes and messages insulting the South Korean leader as a matter of routine.




Presidential office expresses regret over N. Korea's 'rude' remarks on Yoon | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by 이해아 · August 19, 2022

SEOUL, Aug. 19 (Yonhap) -- The presidential office expressed regret Friday over the "rude" remarks of the North Korean leader's sister on President Yoon Suk-yeol's offer of economic aid in exchange for denuclearization steps.

Kim Yo-jong, the sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, issued a scathing commentary earlier in the day, calling Yoon's initiative "the height of absurdity" and lambasting the president by name.

"We consider it very regrettable that North Korea continues to use rude language while mentioning the president by name, and continued to express its nuclear development intentions while distorting our 'audacious plan," the presidential office said in a statement.

"Such an attitude by North Korea is not helpful not only for North Korea's own future but also for peace and prosperity on the Korean Peninsula and will only accelerate its international isolation," it added.

The presidential office said it remains unchanged in its pursuit of North Korea's denuclearization and the development of inter-Korean relations through the president's "audacious plan" and calls on North Korea to be "prudent and make careful considerations."


hague@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by 이해아 · August 19, 2022



9. U.S. agrees with taking 'incremental steps' to denuclearize Korean Peninsula: State Dept.


Some may interpret this as a policy change. But the US policy has always been incremental (with really the size of the increments varying) and wrongly interpreted as the regime has to give up everything before it gets anything.​




U.S. agrees with taking 'incremental steps' to denuclearize Korean Peninsula: State Dept. | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · August 19, 2022

By Byun Duk-kun

WASHINGTON, Aug. 18 (Yonhap) -- The United States sees the need to take "incremental steps" with North Korea to completely denuclearize the Korean Peninsula, a state department spokesperson said Thursday, in apparent support of South Korea's offer to help the impoverished North when and if Pyongyang takes denuclearization steps.

Department Press Secretary Ned Price also said "practical steps" may be taken to denuclearize the peninsula.

"We believe that there are practical steps that can be taken that help advance that shared goal of the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula," he said when asked if the U.S. agrees with providing incentives to the North in the early stages of its denuclearization.


South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol on Wednesday said his country will carry out "aid projects" for the North as long as the country shows its commitment to denuclearization.

"We don't believe that the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula will take place in one fell swoop," said Price. "We think that it will be an incremental process where both sides will be in the position to take incremental steps that help move us along towards that collective goal."

His remarks come after a U.N. official reportedly said offering assistance to North Korea may violate U.N. Security Council sanctions.

"Our sanctions regimes and international sanctions regimes do exempt humanitarian assistance, including food," said Price.

The department spokesperson also urged Pyongyang to engage in diplomacy, saying its return to dialogue will be a "welcomed first step."

Price earlier said the U.S. will continue to maintain sanctions on the North until or unless the country changes its fundamental approach.

The spokesperson, however, noted Pyongyang currently poses the most serious security threat in the Indo-Pacific region.

"There is perhaps no greater challenge to peace and security in that region than that posed by the DPRK," Price said when asked about North Korea's possible participation in a multinational military exercise led by Russia and China.

DPRK stands for the North's official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.

"And in the face of the DPRK's provocations, including its multiple ballistic missile launches, including its ICBM tests and launches in recent months, we have taken action with our treaty allies -- Japan and the ROK -- to ensure readiness, to ensure appropriate deterrence against the threat that we collectively face from the DPRK," he added, referring to South Korea by its official name, the Republic of Korea.

North Korea has launched more than 30 ballistic missiles in 18 rounds of missile tests this year, the largest number of ballistic missiles it fired in a single year. Pyongyang also fired two cruise missiles this week, marking its 19th show of force in the year.

Price underlined the importance of cooperation between South Korea and Japan in dealing with the threat posed by North Korea, calling it a challenge that no single country, including the U.S., can "effectively confront alone."

"We work very closely bilaterally with Japan on the DPRK. We work we work very closely bilaterally with the ROK on the threat posed by the DPRK," said Price.

"But we also recognize that the trilateral relationship and trilateral cooperation is indispensable if we are going to effectively confront this threat because it is a collective threat that the DPRK poses to our alliance, the alliance that we have with the ROK, the alliance we have with Japan, but also to our collective trilateral interests," he added.


bdk@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · August 19, 2022


10. China expands its military training locations in South China Sea



Excerpt:


...seemingly in an effort to hold South Korea and the United States in check, ahead of the Ulchi Freedom Guardian military exercise between South Korea and the U.S. which begins on next Monday.


China expands its military training locations in South China Sea

donga.com

Posted August. 19, 2022 07:52,

Updated August. 19, 2022 07:52

China expands its military training locations in South China Sea. August. 19, 2022 07:52. by Ki-Yong Kim kky@donga.com.

China announced that it will conduct naval exercises in the South China Sea by Friday, seemingly in an effort to hold South Korea and the United States in check, ahead of the Ulchi Freedom Guardian military exercise between South Korea and the U.S. which begins on next Monday.


China’s Weihai Maritime Authority announced on its website that it plans to conduct naval drills in the waters near Qingdao from Aug. 17 to Aug. 19, issuing a ban on private vessels. This part of the sea is near Shangdong Bandao, which is close to South Korea. The Dalian Maritime Authority earlier announced that it would carry out military exercises from Aug. 14 to Aug. 20 in the water to the north of the South China Sea, 100 kilometers away from South Korea’s island Baengyeongdo. China has extended military drills from four areas in the South China Sea to eight areas, ahead of the main exercises of the ROK-U.S. joint military drills.


According to the Chinese authority’s announcement, it is likely that the military exercise around Taiwan, which officially ended on Aug. 7, has been extended to Saturday around the waters in the South China Sea. Some analysts say that China’s series of military drills off the South China Sea are intended for keeping South Korea and the U.S. in check, aiming to possibly create a rift in the ROK-U.S. alliance, while demanding South Korea to keep to its alleged promise to uninstall the THAAD.


China’s defense ministry also announced that it would send its troops to Russia to take part in the Vostok joint military exercises, which will take place in the far east. The United States warned in response that it is worried over China’s military assistance to Russia to help Russia avoid sanctions, and that the United States has made it clear about what would happen if China keeps providing assistance to Russia. The China-Russia joint military drill is taking place for the second time this year since the military drill in the East Sea in May during U.S. President Joe Biden’s Asia trip. Japanese newspaper Asahi Shimbun reported that the Kuril Islands, where Japan and Russia have a territorial dispute over, could be included in the areas of military drills.

한국어

donga.com



11. If N. Korea reins itself in, it will help ease sanctions, says Minister Park Jin




​As always the ball is in KimJong Un's court. But the two cruise missiles and Kim Yo Jong's recent diatribe show that Kim will just keep knocking the ball out of bounds so that play cannot continue.




If N. Korea reins itself in, it will help ease sanctions, says Minister Park Jin

donga.com

Posted August. 19, 2022 07:52,

Updated August. 19, 2022 07:52

If N. Korea reins itself in, it will help ease sanctions, says Minister Park Jin. August. 19, 2022 07:52. by Jin-Woo Shin, Na-Ri Shin niceshin@donga.com,journari@donga.com.

“If North Korea carries out grave provocations such as by conducting the 7th nuclear test, the South will put the individuals and companies involved in the production and the development of their weapons of mass destruction on our own sanctions list,” said South Korean Foreign Minister Park Jin (pictured) in an interview with The Dong-A Ilbo on Wednesday, adding the ministry will review a step to strengthen sanctions in cyber, maritime and exports control.


The U.S. State Department also said the sanctions on North Korea will be maintained unless the North fundamentally changes its approach and behaviors.


“North Korea’s refraining from the nuclear test would be construed as a gesture of sincerity (for denuclearization),” Minister Park added. “If Pyongyang refrains itself from making serious provocations for a certain period of time, Seoul will have consultations with the U.S. and other stakeholders for potential exemptions.” This remark reflects that Seoul might make a proactive effort to draw concessions on Pyongyang’s sanctions such as by instituting the resources-food exchange program.


About China’s defiance on three agendas (additional THAAD deployments, integration into America’s missile defense system, tripartite military alliance with the U.S. and Japan) as well as the restriction on the operation of THAAD systems that have already been deployed, Minister Park said it is just a general stance of China. During the foreign ministerial meeting between Seoul and Beijing on August 9, the Chinese side said the three items of disapproval reflects the ‘stance of the Moon Jae-in administration.’ When asked about the issue of Japan’s forced labor victims, Minister Park said the ministry is actively reviewing a measure to meet them in person for direct dialogues.

한국어

donga.com



12. North Korea refuses to form ties with Yoon-led South Korea: experts






North Korea refuses to form ties with Yoon-led South Korea: experts

The Korea Times · by 2022-08-19 08:49 | North Korea · August 19, 2022

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un joins a group photo session with medics of the Korean People's Army at the April 25 House of Culture in Pyongyang, Thursday, in this photo released by the North's Korean Central Television the following day. Yonhap


Kim Yo-jong rejects South Korean president's 'audacious initiative'


By Kang Seung-woo


In a scathing statement unveiled, Friday, Kim Yo-jong, the powerful sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, said Pyongyang has no intention of establishing a "significant" relationship with the new South Korean government that recently unveiled an aid-for-disarmament initiative for the northern neighbor.

Experts, meanwhile, said North Korea's fiery words reflect its intention to maintain the upper hand in affairs involving South Korea.


According to the North's state-run Korean Central News Agency, Kim rejected the Yoon Suk-yeol administration's "audacious plan," which boils down to improving North Korea's economy through large-scale economic incentives and technical support programs if the reclusive country takes steps toward denuclearization. The plan was made public during Yoon's speech marking National Liberation Day, Monday.


Kim Yo-jong makes a speech during a national meeting on anti-epidemic measures held in Pyongyang, Aug. 10, in this photo provided by the Korean Central News Agency the following day. Yonhap


"It would have been more favorable for his image to shut his mouth, rather than talking nonsense as he had nothing better to say," Kim said, describing the offer as the "height of absurdity" and lambasting the South Korean president by name.


"Although he may knock on the door with a large plan in the future, his 'bold plan' does not work. We make it clear that we will not sit face to face with him."


In response, the South Korean presidential office expressed strong regret over the "rude" remarks, saying that such an attitude will not help the regime's own future and peace on the Korean Peninsula, while isolating itself from the international community.


"The point of her statement is that North Korea is set to take the initiative in inter-Korean relations, refusing to be led by South Korea," said Park Won-gon, a professor of North Korean studies at Ewha Womans University.


Park said Yoon's new initiative was doomed to be rejected by North Korea due to its similarity to the Lee Myung-bak administration's "Vision 3000" that sought to economically benefit the North in return for denuclearization. The North Korean regime strongly resisted that offer at the time.


"It is not certain how long the current situation will last between South and North Korea, but the North has made it clear that it will not build a meaningful relationship with the Yoon administration by rejecting the audacious plan," he said.


"At this point, no matter what initiatives will be offered by South Korea or the United States, North Korea will put its relations with them aside and put the most effort into advancing its nuclear program."


Cho Han-bum, a senior researcher of the Korea Institute for National Unification, even described her tirade as a "declaration of the end" to inter-Korean ties.

"I do not think it is a one-off condemnation," he said.


Since Yoon took office in May, the North Korean regime has had three meaningful occasions to denounce the new administration in South Korea. On the anniversary of the armistice, July 27, the North Korean leader warned that the Yoon government will be annihilated should it make any "dangerous attempt" like a preemptive strike, while his sister raised the need to take "deadly retaliatory" countermeasures over anti-communist leaflets sent from the South, Aug. 10.


"In that respect, today's statement is like North Korea's official announcement that there is no interacting with South Korea under the Yoon administration," Cho said.


President Yoon Suk-yeol speaks during a commencement ceremony for new police officers at the Central Police Academy in Chungju, North Chungcheong Province, Friday. Yonhap


"For the time being, any attempt to improve inter-Korean ties will make little progress and it would not be easy to find a breakthrough in the stalled bilateral relations."


Cho expected North Korea to stage provocations against South Korea, which Seoul cannot effectively respond to.


"Given that her statement did not refer to the U.S., a nuclear test is off the table," he said.


"Instead, its military actions that were suspended in 2020 could be options."

In June 2020, the North Korean leader unexpectedly gave an instruction to suspend envisaged military actions against South Korea. Its previously made threats were to deploy soldiers back to the Mount Geumgang tourist area and Gaeseong Industrial Complex; rebuild sentry posts along the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ); resume military exercises in border areas, including seas off its southwest coast; and help its people to send anti-South Korean leaflets across the border.


Inter-Korean ties have been deadlocked since February 2019, when the Hanoi Summit between the U.S. and North Korea ended without a deal.



The Korea Times · by 2022-08-19 08:49 | North Korea · August 19, 2022


13. S. Korea seeks to maximize national interest at IPEF negotiations




S. Korea seeks to maximize national interest at IPEF negotiations

koreaherald.com · by Yonhap · August 19, 2022

South Korea plans to take part in US-led negotiations over the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) in a way that maximizes national interests, the finance minister said Friday.

Finance Minister Choo Kyung-ho said as a ministerial meeting of the IPEF, the new economic framework launched by US President Joe Biden in May, will be held from Sept. 8-9, its official negotiations will start in earnest.

He said from the rule-setting stage, there is a need to reflect his country's stance and build multilayer cooperation networks for resilient supply chains.

"In this sense, the government plans to actively take part in IPEF negotiations in its major areas," Choo said at a meeting with ministers in charge of economic affairs.

The minister said the government aims to complete its related domestic procedures in August, including its briefing to the National Assembly.

The IPEF covers four key areas -- fair trade, supply chain resilience, infrastructure and green technology, and tax and anti-corruption. The IPEF launch is widely seen as aimed at countering China amid an intensifying Sino-US rivalry.

The Korean government hoped its joining of the IPEF will help diversify the country's supply chains amid fast-changing global trade circumstances.

Meanwhile, Choo said the government will step up economic cooperation with China, the country's largest trading partner, as the two nations marked the 30th anniversary of establishing their official ties this year.

"Through high-level economic talks between the two countries and other channels, we plan to discuss ways to deepen cooperation in areas spanning from culture, public health, economic policies and supply chains to ways to ease difficulties facing Korean firms doing business in China," he added.

South Korea is reviewing its possible participation in the US-led semiconductor alliance, called "Chip 4," amid concerns that its joining could cause friction with China if it develops into an exclusive grouping against Beijing.

The Chip 4 is an envisioned alliance of semiconductor powerhouses tentatively involving the US, South Korea, Japan and Taiwan, widely considered a grouping against China and aimed at countering Beijing's influence in global supply chains. (Yonhap)


koreaherald.com · by Yonhap · August 19, 2022


​14. North Korean ‘volunteers’ to fight in Ukraine?



​Speculation continues.


Excerpts:


Russia is in the grip of war and chooses its allies and friends solely based on who can directly help it in the war campaign. It seems that only North Korea remained and that is a true reflection and measure of both Russia’s internal state and even more a mirror of its position in the world. It’s a humiliating image, but Russia and its leader have consciously chosen it and are persisting in that choice.
Being a partner of such a Russia today means joining a suicidal adventure and renouncing any expectation of any civilisational progress. If there is still any dilemma left in Serbia, let Russia’s celebration of its brotherhood with North Korea be the last in a long line of sobering ups. Simply put, Serbia’s path must not be towards the values that Moscow and Pyongyang enthusiastically share. Serbia has nothing in common with that.




North Korean ‘volunteers’ to fight in Ukraine?

DISCLAIMER: All opinions in this column reflect the views of the author(s), not of EURACTIV Media network.


By Orhan Dragaš Aug 18, 2022

euractiv.com · by Orhan Dragaš · August 18, 2022

The agreement between Moscow and Pyongyang to exchange North Korean soldiers to fight in Ukraine in return for imports of Russian grain and oil is reminiscent of medieval times; if Russia hopes to involve Serbia in such an alliance, Belgrade must say no, writes Orhan Dragaš.

Orhan Dragaš is the founder and director of the International Security Institute based in Belgrade.

Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong-Un corresponded on the occasion of the North Korean national holiday. They exchanged warm and friendly messages, much more than the sterile messages that statesmen send to each other on important dates. Russia and North Korea understand each other very well, they want “even stronger ties in the future” (Putin), and they are bound by a joint effort against the threats of “enemy military forces” (Kim).

Great Russia, a world power, one of the “poles” of the new, multipolar world, apparently re-discovers a new brother: North Korea, the most backward country in the world, isolated from any progress, a dictatorship whose ferocity is unmatched by any totalitarianism in modern history.

Regardless of the way North Korea is, Putin desperately needs it today.

What was not in the messages that appeared on Russian state TV was that a hundred thousand North Korean soldiers were prepared to join the Russians in conquering Ukraine. Moscow propagandists, encouraged by this kind of news, consider Kim’s “volunteers” to be staunch fighters, and they have already assigned them a duty to fight against “Ukrainian fascism”.

Moscow is already looking forward to this new wartime alliance. It would be a kind of barter arrangement, in which North Korea would export much-needed divisions to Russia, and in return would receive grain, coal and gas. All this is much more reminiscent of the medieval conquests of mercenary armies than of two states in the 21st century, which consider themselves important for world events, for reasons known to them.

The import of North Korean fighters – even if, for now, only a possibility that no official in Moscow has denied – shows how desperate Putin’s war machine is six months after the beginning of the aggression against Ukraine.

First, it speaks about the irresolvable problem with the manpower at the front, the losses and the low motivation of the Russian forces, which cannot be renewed by a general mobilisation. Second, this mercenary transfusion would not cost Moscow much, which is extremely important when Russia’s economy is struggling for air, with the cost of the invasion going up to $20 billion a day. And finally, North Korea remains the last ally who can extend a hand to it in the war campaign against Ukraine, because there are no other allies left.

Putin and Russia have put themselves in the position of forming a blood brotherhood with the most notorious of all renegade regimes in the world. Moscow is openly joining the “axis of evil”, as George W. Bush called North Korea, Iran and (Saddam’s) Iraq back in 2002. It clearly belongs to this circle of renegade states, because Russia’s military alliance with North Korea would no longer be a surprise to anyone. These two countries and their people have a solid, common interest, even a mission, which is the fight against the “political West”, as they say in Moscow, with the thrill of defeating their greatest enemy in this fight.

The war cries from Moscow are no different from the murderous messages from the state TV in Pyongyang, at least when it comes to razing the West to the ground, sometimes by invasion, sometimes by nuclear strikes. Both nations enthusiastically stand by their leaders, give them encouragement and pledge to be with them until final victory. They do not have friends in the world, but they don’t care about that anymore, they turn to each other, exchange soldiers for grain and gas and dream of triumph.

Russia’s military alliance with North Korea is not only a cold, military arrangement; it is above all a gathering around the same values. Moscow and Pyongyang do not hide that the pivot of these values is the destruction of the West, as the source of all their misfortunes. After long six months and being stuck in Ukraine, Putin and Russia are removing the last layer of false representation as a civilised, European nation, and the face of an aggressive bully, both towards its environment and its population remains.

Russia is in the grip of war and chooses its allies and friends solely based on who can directly help it in the war campaign. It seems that only North Korea remained and that is a true reflection and measure of both Russia’s internal state and even more a mirror of its position in the world. It’s a humiliating image, but Russia and its leader have consciously chosen it and are persisting in that choice.

Being a partner of such a Russia today means joining a suicidal adventure and renouncing any expectation of any civilisational progress. If there is still any dilemma left in Serbia, let Russia’s celebration of its brotherhood with North Korea be the last in a long line of sobering ups. Simply put, Serbia’s path must not be towards the values that Moscow and Pyongyang enthusiastically share. Serbia has nothing in common with that.

It is the leader’s duty to recognise this, even if public opinion surveys driven by emotion, not reason, convince him otherwise. The people elect a leader to lead them, not to follow them, because leaders must look decades ahead and make decisions that will bring benefit, not ruin.

If Kemal Atatürk had called a referendum for all the reforms he implemented, today’s Turkey would not be much different from the feudal one, and it is possible that such a Turkey would be in an alliance with Russia and North Korea. Fortunately, and thanks to the courage, vision and wisdom of its leader, today’s Turkey is a great power and because of that, it celebrates the “Father of Turkey” (Atatürk).

Will Russia, which is fraternising with Kim’s Korea, have anyone and anything to celebrate? This author, from Serbia, asks the same question to his country.

euractiv.com · by Orhan Dragaš · August 18, 2022




​15. US, South Korea to Resume Military Exercises





US, South Korea to Resume Military Exercises

dailysignal.com · by Bruce Klingner · August 18, 2022


Washington and Seoul are poised to resume large-scale combined military exercises for the first time in four years.

Doing so will repair the degradation to allied deterrence and defense capabilities wrought by years of canceled or reduced military training.

While the U.S. and South Korea constrained their militaries, North Korea continued its own military exercises, as well as developed and deployed numerous new missiles systems.

In 2018, President Donald Trump unilaterally announced the cancellation of military exercises with South Korea. The United States received nothing in return for its unilateral concession: Pyongyang neither codified its missile and nuclear test moratorium in the Singapore communique, nor announced reciprocal constraints on its own military exercises.

Within the first eight months of Trump’s decision, the U.S. and South Korea had canceled at least nine major exercises. Gen. Robert Abrams, then-commander of U.S. Forces Korea, testified in 2019 that he had reduced the “size, scope, volume, and timing” of allied military exercises in South Korea without any change in North Korean military activity. Pyongyang’s annual winter training cycle that year involved some 1 million troops.

Then-South Korean President Moon Jae-in resisted Biden administration requests to resume pre-2018 levels of bilateral training exercises due to concerns that doing so would undermine his conciliatory approach to North Korea.

The Moon administration advocated unconditional economic benefits, reduced sanctions enforcement, and continued reduction of allied military activity to induce Pyongyang back to denuclearization negotiations.

The outbreak of COVID-19 also restricted the resumption of exercises.

The inauguration of the Yoon Suk Yeol administration in May brought South Korea into alignment with the United States on restoring allied military readiness.

During their May meeting, Yoon and President Joe Biden agreed to expand the scope and scale of combined military exercises, as well as the rotational deployment of U.S. strategic assets—bombers, aircraft carriers, and dual-capable aircraft—to the Korean Peninsula. The latter had also been curtailed in 2018. The resumption of strategic asset deployments may be held in abeyance until North Korea conducts an expected seventh nuclear test.

The U.S. and South Korean militaries will resume large-scale field exercises with the commencement of Ulchi Freedom Shield (formerly Ulchi Freedom Guardian) on Monday.

The combined exercises will include U.S. and South Korean air, naval, and ground forces. The exercises will include scenarios such as defending and counterattacking a full-scale North Korean invasion, as well as terrorism at airports and nuclear power plants, a fire at a semiconductor plant, and cyberattacks paralyzing financial networks.

Beyond Ulchi Freedom Shield, an additional 11 field exercises between U.S. and South Korean troops are scheduled in the coming months. Since Yoon’s inauguration in May, the U.S. and South Korea have ramped up military training.

In July, the U.S. and South Korean militaries conducted an 11-day exercise at the Korea Combat Training Center. The training involved 4,300 South Korean troops, 300 U.S. troops, and 100 vehicles, including tanks, armored vehicles, self-propelled howitzers, attack helicopters, and unmanned aerial vehicles.

Also in July, U.S. forces conducted their first live-fire drill with AH-64E Apache attack helicopters in three years. The South Korean army also conducted a large-scale live-fire drill with ground troops and 30 helicopters.

U.S. Marines and their South Korean counterparts conducted a combined drill practicing replenishing military supplies at front-line units. The exercise involved transport planes, helicopters, and ground forces.

The training was part of the bilateral Korea Marine Exercise Program, which had continued during the past four years, but with approximately half the annual number of exercises. The exercises were not publicly announced during the Moon administration, but the July exercise was publicized.

The unilateral concession of reducing combined U.S. and South Korean military training was detrimental to allied deterrence and defense capabilities.

A former senior U.S. defense official characterized it as a “big problem” for U.S. pilots and crews, noting they were “less ready by the time they left [South Korea] than when they arrived.”

The resumption of allied combined military exercises is a welcome development, particularly in light of North Korea’s unrelenting development of new military capabilities. Beyond restoring allied military capabilities, the exercises are also necessary for progress toward the eventual return of wartime operational command of South Korean forces from United Nations Command.

Have an opinion about this article? To sound off, please email letters@DailySignal.com and we’ll consider publishing your edited remarks in our regular “We Hear You” feature. Remember to include the url or headline of the article plus your name and town and/or state.

dailysignal.com · by Bruce Klingner · August 18, 2022

​16. Seoul and Washington must not blink in the face of Pyongyang’s nuclear blackmail


Important historical perspective and analysis.


And Professor Lee is the only person I know who routinely uses Shakespeare when addressing national security issues.


Excerpts:

Still, the U.S.-ROK alliance today is poised to revive itself from the state of disrepair into which it plunged during the past five years. At a summit in Seoul in May, Presidents Biden and Yoon, using strong language, reaffirmed the alliance. In particular, Biden affirmed “the U.S. extended deterrence commitment to the ROK using the full range of U.S. defense capabilities, including nuclear, conventional and missile defense capabilities.” The two leaders pledged to grow the entente into a “global comprehensive strategic alliance” beyond keeping the peace in the Korean peninsula, and to closely cooperate on economic and critical technology interests.
Once North Korea escalates, the U.S. and South Korea must send, beyond strong words, an unequivocal message to Kim Jong Un that his game could result in massive counterattacks on all his estates throughout his country. Firm, credible threats — otherwise known as deterrence — have kept the de facto peace in Korea for 79 years. Seoul and Washington must not blink now that Pyongyang has begun threatening a preemptive nuclear strike. The stakes are higher than ever before. Not only “peace with justice and honor” but the very preservation of human lives in the Korean peninsula depends on it.
As Shakespeare’s Hamlet intoned, “The readiness is all.” The essential task of keeping the peace stands not on the triviality of opinion poll numbers or inter-Korean projects but the paramount importance of prescience and planning.




Seoul and Washington must not blink in the face of Pyongyang’s nuclear blackmail

BY SUNG-YOON LEE, OPINION CONTRIBUTOR - 08/19/22 7:00 AM ET

THE VIEWS EXPRESSED BY CONTRIBUTORS ARE THEIR OWN AND NOT THE VIEW OF THE HILL

The Hill · August 19, 2022

Julius Caesar he is not. But Kim Jong Un, the North Korean dictator, in 2018 set in motion a chain of events that eerily reflects Caesar’s dictum made over 2,000 years ago: “In war, events of importance are the result of trivial causes.”

Back then, no one — perhaps save for Kim himself, the patrilineal grandson of the “ever-victorious, iron-willed” state founder Kim Il Sung — could have foreseen that one day Kim would win a “brilliant victory” over COVID-19. Still, by mid-May of this year, Pyongyang’s vigilant seers may have foretold ultimate victory when Kim, calling the spread of the coronavirus a historical “great upheaval” to befall his nation, declared war on the pandemic.

The North’s state media reported last week that Kim had “solemnly declared the victory” at a party gathering on Aug. 10. This unverifiable victory, the state news agency stressed, was “priceless,” “great” and “shining.” How could it be anything less? After all, the third-generational Great Leader had walked, talked and balked at offers of medical aid from abroad, and yet, had easily, Caesar-style, conquered his nation’s invisible enemy.

Even an easier victory Kim already had won four years ago in discussions with former President Trump. Kim’s victory was aided by pre-game assistance from former South Korean President Moon Jae-In, which, rather than diminishing Kim’s achievement, only underscores Moon’s trivial concerns. Riding high with an 80 percent approval rating coming out of his first tragi-comical faux peace summit with Kim at the inter-Korea border village, Moon turned next to further beautifying Kim’s brutish image. In the weeks leading up to the first-ever U.S.-North Korea summit in Singapore, Moon repeatedly told Trump that Kim was amenable to “denuclearization” and, thereby, was a reasonable fellow who can be trusted. Just whom Kim was willing to denuclearize — himself or his adversaries — was a matter on which Moon equivocated.

Kim manipulated Trump in more ways than one. In addition to selling Trump the same “denuclearization of the Korean peninsula” practiced by his predecessors in 1991, 1994, 2005 and 2007 — Kim persuaded Trump to suspend indefinitely America’s decades-old, defensive live military exercises with South Korea. After the summit, Trump, using North Korean verbiage, said the “war games” were “very provocative,” “tremendously expensive,” and unnecessarily damaging to North Korea’s security and America’s economy. The Pentagon indefinitely suspended select exercises.

Moon’s determination to please Kim and his sister, Kim Yo Jong, by undermining South Korea’s combat readiness was no small victory for Kim Jong Un. That the Trump administration also came on board made Kim’s win even more gratifying.

Just as the notion of “snapping back” financial sanctions after a period of lax enforcement is a myth, so is the thought of snap-back military drills after an extended hiatus. Both require manpower, resources and coordinated execution. Even in Iceland, the perennial leader in the Global Peace Index, a police station that settles for year-round computer simulation exercises without live training exercises may be accused of dereliction of duty. But for South Korea, which faces across the border a model state purveyor of international terrorism-cum-crimes against humanity that threatens it, to eschew field training and endanger itself and U.S. troops in Korea may be gross negligence.

With the resumption of the combined U.S.-Republic of Korea field exercises set to begin Aug. 22, Kim will escalate and deflect blame on Seoul. After all, timely troublemaking is his métier. The more threats he dispenses, the more likely he is to be regarded and ultimately accepted as the firm steward of a legitimate, growing nuclear arsenal. Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine means that little, if any, penalty beyond verbal rebuke will come Kim’s way.

During the victory-over-COVID political event with her brother last week, Kim Yo Jong averred that the coronavirus was intentionally transmitted into the North by South Korean “human trash” and “scumbags,” that is, human rights activists. She claimed that coronavirus-contaminated “leaflets, cash, and dirty booklets” the activists put inside balloons and launched into the North were the first source of the “malicious virus” in her nation and threatened “deadly vengeful response” against the South, including “extermination” of the South Korean government.

South Korea’s new president, Yoon Suk-yeol, must brace for a period of accentuated inter-Korean tension. His administration must stay firm in the face of Pyongyang’s escalation and possible limited attacks on the South. And it must not go wobbly at the first fake olive branch Kim dangles. During his Aug. 15 Liberation Day speech, Yoon said if the North were to cease its nuclear program and turn to a “genuine and substantive process for denuclearization,” the South would revamp its infrastructure — from building power plants, ports and airports to facilitating international financial investment in the nation of misery and thievery by day and darkness and hunger by night.

Not only would such joint ventures with the North require the approval of the United Nations Security Council 1718 Committee, Kim would only manipulate the tantalizing prospect for such financial aid to buy more time and money with which to further advance his nuclear capabilities.

Still, the U.S.-ROK alliance today is poised to revive itself from the state of disrepair into which it plunged during the past five years. At a summit in Seoul in May, Presidents Biden and Yoon, using strong language, reaffirmed the alliance. In particular, Biden affirmed “the U.S. extended deterrence commitment to the ROK using the full range of U.S. defense capabilities, including nuclear, conventional and missile defense capabilities.” The two leaders pledged to grow the entente into a “global comprehensive strategic alliance” beyond keeping the peace in the Korean peninsula, and to closely cooperate on economic and critical technology interests.

Good news for Democrats continues to build — so now what? Liz Cheney will be gone from Congress but not forgotten

Once North Korea escalates, the U.S. and South Korea must send, beyond strong words, an unequivocal message to Kim Jong Un that his game could result in massive counterattacks on all his estates throughout his country. Firm, credible threats — otherwise known as deterrence — have kept the de facto peace in Korea for 79 years. Seoul and Washington must not blink now that Pyongyang has begun threatening a preemptive nuclear strike. The stakes are higher than ever before. Not only “peace with justice and honor” but the very preservation of human lives in the Korean peninsula depends on it.

As Shakespeare’s Hamlet intoned, “The readiness is all.” The essential task of keeping the peace stands not on the triviality of opinion poll numbers or inter-Korean projects but the paramount importance of prescience and planning.

Sung-Yoon Lee is Kim Koo-Korea Foundation Professor of Korean Studies and assistant professor at The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, and faculty associate at the U.S.-Japan Program, the Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University. Follow him on Twitter @SungYoonLee1.

The Hill · · August 19, 2022



​17. Why North Korea Might Reject Yoon Suk-yeol’s Audacious Initiative


Spot on from Scott Snyder. I sent this out previously from Forbes but I think it is worth re-reading (and for those who missed it)


Excerpts:


First, Yoon’s initiative adds to a long list of failed offers involving South Korean promises to provide economic benefits to North Korea in exchange for security concessions.

Second, the North Koreans are likely to read Yoon’s initiative as an effort to achieve South Korea’s economic absorption of North Korea rather than as a process built on inter-Korean economic integration.

Third, the North Koreans have already rejected the premises under which Yoon’s plan has been developed and put forward. 

If North Korea is likely to reject Yoon’s initiative and Yoon indeed is trying to make Kim an offer that he cannot refuse, what would make the initiative so audacious? By presenting Kim with an offer so sweet that many judge it cannot be refused, the true audacity of the Yoon initiative may be that it seeks to strengthen its moral high ground in the face of North Korean nuclear intransigence, further bolster domestic support for deterrence in light of North Korea’s refusal to engage in diplomacy, and show how far South Korea might be willing to go to preserve peace in the face of the North’s increasing military threat.



Why North Korea Might Reject Yoon Suk-yeol’s Audacious Initiative

There are at least three reasons why the North Koreans are likely to reject South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol's "audacious" initiative outlined in his Liberation Day speech.

cfr.org · by Lindsay Maizland

In his first Liberation Day speech marking the 77th anniversary of the end of Japanese colonial rule over the Korean Peninsula, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol announced an “audacious” initiative that laid out the foundation of his administration’s approach to North Korea. The initiative is premised on the idea of a comprehensive, phased, and step-by-step denuclearization of North Korea and the normalization of inter-Korean relations in exchange for a bold program of economic assistance, development, and infrastructure investment. While Yoon’s audacious plan may be the most generous, tangible, and wide-ranging offer yet proposed by South Korea in exchange for North Korea’s complete denuclearization, there are at least three reasons why the North Koreans are likely to reject it out of hand.

First, Yoon’s initiative adds to a long list of failed offers involving South Korean promises to provide economic benefits to North Korea in exchange for security concessions. These were the same assumptions that were behind a succession of failed efforts to jump-start denuclearization talks, most recently including efforts by both the Donald Trump and Lee Myung-bak administrations. But Kim Jong-un’s military modernization goals laid out in the January 2021 Eighth Party Congress clearly underscores that Kim has shifted from an approach that prioritized simultaneous economic and military development to one that sees military development as a necessity for preserving the North Korean system under Kim’s rule. Kim cannot build a credible record of domestic accomplishments toward the goal of economic development on the back of South Korean largesse; instead, Kim has prioritized military development at the expense of economic prosperity as an essential prerequisite for maintaining regime survival.

Second, the North Koreans are likely to read Yoon’s initiative as an effort to achieve South Korea’s economic absorption of North Korea rather than as a process built on inter-Korean economic integration. Given Kim’s distrust of external parties, he must be carefully attuned to any externally led efforts to induce North Korea’s economic dependency. In this respect, the more audacious the South Korean plan, the less likely it is to fly with North Korea. The same was true of North Korea’s attitude toward the Moon administration’s vision for a unified Korean economy. The acuteness of North Korea’s economic vulnerability will make the leadership all the more resistant toward South Korean-proposed infrastructure projects, as was demonstrated by the restrictions the North Koreans imposed on the Gaesong Industrial Zone projects almost a decade ago.

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Third, the North Koreans have already rejected the premises under which Yoon’s plan has been developed and put forward. Kim clearly envisions his survival and that of North Korea as premised on the country’s nuclear status, not tradeable for North Korea’s economic integration with either South Korea or the global economy. Moreover, North Korea has consistently failed to honor the principle of reciprocity in implementing negotiations by pocketing the concessions of others without responding with concessions of its own. Yoon’s audacious plan appears to envision a trust-building approach between the two Koreas that would enable both sides to proceed with step-by-step measures. But if the establishment of reciprocity-based mutual trust was not realized under the Moon administration, which bent over backwards to send gestures of respect and goodwill toward North Korea, it will be even harder for Kim to trust a Yoon administration deeply ensconced in the very values of freedom and human rights that North Korea denies.

If North Korea is likely to reject Yoon’s initiative and Yoon indeed is trying to make Kim an offer that he cannot refuse, what would make the initiative so audacious? By presenting Kim with an offer so sweet that many judge it cannot be refused, the true audacity of the Yoon initiative may be that it seeks to strengthen its moral high ground in the face of North Korean nuclear intransigence, further bolster domestic support for deterrence in light of North Korea’s refusal to engage in diplomacy, and show how far South Korea might be willing to go to preserve peace in the face of the North’s increasing military threat.

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cfr.org · by Lindsay Maizland







De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Senior Fellow, Foundation for Defense of Democracies

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Senior Advisor, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

VIDEO "WHEREBY" Link: https://whereby.com/david-maxwell

Phone: 202-573-8647

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com


V/R
David Maxwell
Senior Fellow
Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Phone: 202-573-8647
Personal Email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com
Web Site: www.fdd.org
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
Subscribe to FDD’s new podcastForeign Podicy
FDD is a Washington-based nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

If you do not read anything else in the 2017 National Security Strategy read this on page 14:

"A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation."

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