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Update: The Impact of COVID-19
#42 — April 13, 2021
Dominium has been focused on our business and operations during this pandemic crisis. As we move past the critical rent collection part of each month, we will focus our updates on information that we have found useful in the work we are doing. We hope that our friends and partners in affordable housing find it helpful as well and will send other information our way as well. A collection of all previous updates can be found at COVID-19 Impact Update.
Rent Collections: Rental Assistance is Helping Residents Pay Rent
Through April 12th, 2021 we have collected 88.4% of charges for the month. Resident receipts are: 
  • Up 3% compared to March 2021 through the 12th
  • Up 3% compared to February 2021 through the 12th 
  • Up 7% compared to January 2021 through the 12th 
  • Up 1% compared to August 2019 through the 12th
Subsidy: Cumulative subsidy receipts for the month are 93% collected, which is: 
  • Down (2%) compared to March 2021 through the 12th.
  • Down (1%) compared to February 2021 through the 12th.
  • Down (1%) compared to January 2021 through the 12th.
  • Up 5% compared to August 2019 through the 12th.

Total Receipts: Cumulative receipts for the month are 89% collected, which is: 
  • Up 2% compared to March 2021 through the 12th.
  • Up 2% compared to February 2021 through the 12th.
  • Up 5% compared to January 2021 through the 12th.
  • Up 2% compared to August 2019 through the 12th.

Receipts at Senior properties are 96% collected, which is: 
  • Up 1% compared to March 2021 through the 12th.
  • Up 1% compared to February 2021 through the 12th.
  • Up 2% compared to January 2021 through the 12th.
  • Up 2% compared to August 2019 through the 12th.

Receipts at Family properties are 87% collected, which is: 
  • Up 4% compared to March 2021 through the 12th.
  • Up 4% compared to February 2021 through the 12th.
  • Up 8% compared to January 2021 through the 12th.
  • Flat compared to August 2019 through the 12th
The chart below shows the distribution of properties on their collection performance in April 2021 through the 12th. Out of the 199 properties, 24 have collected less than 72% of April 2021 charges representing $0.6M remaining to collect while 36 properties have collected over 96% representing $0.1M remaining to collect.
The lowest collection category is primarily made up of Section 8 properties which are impacted by timing with changes between resident and subsidy owed charges. The below distribution excludes these properties and follows the expected trends.
Previous Dominium Rent Reports can be found here.
Housing & Employment News
The number of US job openings increased through the end of February to a two year high of 7.4 million, which is the highest it has been since January 2019. As economies begin to recover from the pandemic, labor demand is increasing in health care, social assistance, accommodation, food services, arts, entertainment, and recreation. The accelerated pace of the vaccine rollout is fueling the rise of job openings.

Tech workers are in high demand as companies move to remote work and cloud solutions, with US companies adding 50,000 tech jobs in March. The unemployment rate for IT workers has dropped to its lowest level (1.9%) since August 2019. Many employers are looking for support of cloud platforms, automation, and remote work.

Workers filed a seasonally adjusted 719,000 initial jobless claims in the week ended March 27, which was up slightly from 658,000 the week before, a low since the beginning of the pandemic. The 4-week rolling average also fell to 719,000 which is the lowest it has been since the beginning of the pandemic. For comparison, the weekly average in 2019 was 218,000.

Freddie Mac’s March 2021 Consumer Confidence Survey showed renters’ and homeowners’ uncertainty about their ability to make their payments on time has improved, as 63% of renters and 41% of homeowners report concern over making payments, down from their pandemic highs of 71% and 55%, respectively, in Q4 2020.
Pandemic News
The more virulent British Strain of Coronavirus has been pervasive throughout the US in recent weeks and is now the most dominant according to the CDC. This comes as cases are rising across the US, with experts fearing another surge is ahead. This strain has been spread amongst young people through sporting events and day care centers. The UK strain is 50% more transmissible than the first identified strain of the virus.

NPR has a way to help those looking to book vaccines in each state. As eligibility is opening to all adults in most states, they provide a searchable list by state, but advise patience and persistence. There are not enough available doses for all who are eligible, and demand is high. They recommend looking to local guides for your county or state, and even Vaccine Hunting Facebook groups.

Pharmacies and community clinics are experiencing a high number of no-show appointments due to patients forgetting to cancel if they have already received the vaccine. As eligibility opens, many people are signing up for multiple appointments, and not canceling after they’ve received their shot creating “a mad dash at the end of the day.” This forces them to find last-minute replacements at the end of the day, so they don’t waste the vaccine. Some pharmacies are looking at the back end and removing duplicate appointments. However, the demand is high enough that many pharmacies are able to locate takers for left over shots.

There has been a large push to vaccinate seniors as some remain hesitant about the vaccine. Nearly three quarters of Americans over the age of 65 have received at least one dose of the vaccine, but almost 13 million have not yet. The vaccine rate “for older adults has somewhat plateaued.” The Biden administration is providing funding to community organizations to reach at-risk seniors and those with disabilities. Seniors listen to their families and even their faith organizations about vaccine safety and efficacy. Some pastors and churches are encouraging their parishioners to get vaccinated.

The CDC released new guidelines this past week stating that traveling both internationally and domestically is low risk for fully vaccinated people. Someone is considered fully vaccinated two weeks after the second dose of either the Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna vaccines, or two weeks after the single dose of the Johnson & Johnson. If you are not fully vaccinated, state restrictions may be in place and it may be best to check what the testing or quarantine requirements are before you leave.

Scientists are trying to pinpoint the origin of the Coronavirus by testing old, frozen blood samples for the SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. They are testing blood samples from the Wuhan Blood Center from September to December 2019 and “further back in time until there are two successive months without any evidence of SARS-CoV-2 specific antibodies.” Scientists in the US and European countries are also searching blood banks for older samples to test when SARS-CoV-2 arrived within their respective borders.
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The April 8th episode of the Osterholm Update: COVID-19 discusses the variants in the US, inequitable access to the vaccine around the globe, vaccine passports, and the similarities of the vaccines.
IHME has changed their daily infections and testing to project the trajectory of infections based on easing mandates and closures and universal mask wearing.
Economic News
The International Monetary Fund said Tuesday that it expects the world economy to expand in 2021 by 6%, which is the fastest expansion in its records, which started in 1980. Due to the pandemic, the global economy shrank by 3.3% in 2020. Although the IMF warns that recovery will be uneven with poorer countries not able to support stimulus or still reeling from tourism loss. IMF chief economist, Gita Gopinath, said “many of the jobs lost are unlikely to return” due to the shift to e-commerce and automation.

The Federal Reserve Board of Governors raised their forecasts for growth and inflation in light of new developments in the US economy, including the most recent stimulus package. The Fed committed to continuing its policies of large bond purchases and ultralow interest rates until the economy has fully recovered. While they didn’t specify a time or metric by which they’d make that decisions, some officials have suggested the policy would continue through 2023 or until the unemployment rate reached 4% and inflation reached 2%.

Pandemic-induced business technology adoption has led to an increase in productivity, which has been a silver lining in the impacts of COVID on the economy. Even as GDP fell 2.4% in Q4, investment rose in computer equipment (17%), software (6%) and research and development (1%) over the same period in 2019. The pattern of increased investment into technology and productivity growth is expected to continue past the pandemic, and potentially lead to growth in GDP and wages.

The US Trade deficit hit a record high in February as the economic activity in the US rebounded more quickly than elsewhere in the world. The deficit increased 4.5% to $71.1 Billion, which exceeded economists’ projections. Exports fell 2.6%, likely hurt by unseasonably cold weather, while imports fell 0.9%, constrained mainly by supply chain constraints. The trade deficit is estimated to be a 1% drag on GDP growth.

Many developing countries depressed by the slow return of tourism, are likely to experience another year like 2020 in 2021. As tourism slowly returns, it will not make up for the lost wage of 2020, causing many to fall deeper into poverty. Those living in extreme poverty around the world is expected to rise by 39 million in 2021, following the rise of 124 million last year.
Other Interesting & Helpful Resources
The TSA released the last three years of checkpoint data comparing the number of travelers passing through security in 2019, 2020 and 2021. Current TSA levels are about half of the number of travelers in 2019, and almost 10 times as many from the same time in 2020.

The Washington Post tested New York’s vaccine passport at Yankee Stadium this week, using an app called Excelsior Pass, and it is not yet a full solution. It can take time to set up, to show a green check mark that you are allowed inside a public space. Even when you’ve set up your credentials, it can take hours to show your clearance, causing one tech-reporter to miss the Yankee game all together as it did not update in time. They noted that the app “doesn’t appear to pose major privacy risks… [and] cannot be easily used by the state to track you.” One major issue is that it is easy to set up a fake pass.
State-by-State Actions
Schools: Education Week

Reopening & Closing Status:

Construction Limits:
Many students have returned to the classroom last fall, but some in larger cities are returning for the first time in a year and are anxious to go back to school. The New York Times interviewed students of all ages across the country about returning to in-person learning. One student in New Orleans described how hard it was to make friends while social distancing and hybrid school, “I didn’t know if I knew how to make friends anymore.” However, she continued by saying that being around other students and in the same room as her teacher made her feel “motivated, like [she] wanted to do more.” She said, “I haven’t felt that way in a while, and I got a lot of work done.”

Inexperienced hikers and adventurers are getting lost in remote parts of the country putting strain on search and rescue teams. As the pandemic has led to many Americans traveling in National Parks and public lands, some are not considering the risks. If a hiker gets lost in a National Park, the National Park Service handles the rescue. However, if a hiker gets lost outside of those boundaries it is up to volunteer search and rescue teams to rescue them. This New York Times article follows Tip Top Search and Rescue in Wyoming, who has rescued numerous inexperienced explorers.
Resident Resources
National Low-Income Housing Coalition put together a State and Local Rental Assistance guide for COVID-19 Emergency Rental Assistance Programs around the country.

Fannie Mae put together a “Here to Help Renters” resource guide. It includes tips for talking to your landlord, top things to know, and options for those in need of financial assistance. Other resources are linked to HUD, CARES Act, and state and local resources.

Freddie Mac offers a Renter Helpline, which provides counseling for renters on budgeting, credit improvement and debt management. The attached flyer is available in multiple languages.

HUD has put together a guide and FAQ for Renters during the Pandemic.

The United Way is assisting residents in Minnesota with COVID housing assistance program. Those needing support can call 211 or toll free at 1-800-543-7709.

Information on filing for unemployment

Family Housing Fund has put together resources for households impacted by COVID-19, ranging from legal help, utilities, food, unemployment insurance and more.

Housing Link has provided tips for emergency assistance in the Twin Cities with contact information by county.

National Alliance on Mental Illness Minnesota also has a list for families of financial and housing resources. You can also search for reduced cost services by zip code on their website.
In an attempt to share what we know and are doing during this crisis, we are publishing a set of periodic updates for our partners and friends in affordable housing. We likely will do this twice a month or as interesting events dictate. Please let us know if you would like to be removed from this list.

Thank you,
Paul Sween & Mark Moorhouse