Included in this issue of the newsletter:
- Message from Sasakawa USA's Chairman, Satohiro Akimoto
October Activities
- Policy Briefing: 2021 ASEAN Summit: Japan's Viewpoint with Amb. Masafumi Ishii
- The Japan-U.S. Military Program (JUMP): JUMP Pensacola, FL
Publications
- Japan Political Pulse: The 2021 General Election Campaign Kicks Off (Smith)
Upcoming Activities
- Policy Briefing: Taiwan Crisis and Japan's Strategy with LtGen Koichiro Bansho
- Policy Briefing: 2021 ASEAN Summit: U.S. Policy Toward Asia with Amb. David Shear
- The Alliance Working in America Series (TAWA): TAWA in Dallas, TX
- The Japan-U.S. Military Program (JUMP): JUMP Washington, DC
Announcements
- ADM Katsutoshi Kawano Joins Sasakawa USA Board of Directors
- Advisory Committee on Projects Member Amb. Melanne Verveer Awarded the Order of the Rising Sun
- JETAADC Launches 2021-2022 Mentorship Program
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Message from Sasakawa USA's Chairman, Satohiro Akimoto |
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This weekend’s lower house election in Japan is set to be an important test for Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). It looks like this test may become a tough one for the newly elected prime minister.
Kishida became prime minister earlier this month following his victory in the LDP presidential election at the end of the last month. He governed for only slightly over a week before dissolving the chamber on October 14 to take advantage of the “honeymoon period” granted to his new government. The approval for the LDP had recovered over 50% in the Nikkei polls taken on October 4 and 5 for the first time in over a year. Furthermore, new COVID-19 infection cases, which played a major role in forcing former Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga to give up his political leadership, had come down to the lowest level since the pandemic virus began to spread a year and a half ago.
As a result, there was general optimism in the LDP that with the unpopular former Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga gone, the election would go all right. Yes, the party may lose 20 to 30 seats from the current 276 seats held, but it was felt it would secure a single-party majority in the lower house election.
However, since Kishida dissolved the lower house, the mood soured at an amazing pace and it became clear that the lower house election could be much more problematic for Kishida and the LDP than was anticipated. The latest major polls bode ill for the LDP to an alarming degree. The LDP’s latest secret election research data, which was leaked out, indicates that an increasing number of party candidates have been losing ground in a matter of days in their districts.
Reflecting the unfavorable poll data, Akira Amari, Secretary-General of the party, and Toshiaki Endo, Chairperson, Election Strategy Committee, issued a joint statement on October 21 to urge all LDP candidates for the lower house election to scramble for every single vote as many LDP candidates face a dire situation. The statement warns against wasting “even one second to fight through the election campaign period.”
On October 25, a major shock hit Kishida and the LDP when a candidate backed by the LDP was miserably defeated by a candidate backed by the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) and Democratic Party for the People (DPP) in an upper house by-election. Kishida himself campaigned twice in Shizuoka for the LDP candidate but failed to rally voters in support of the LDP candidate. According to an Asahi newspaper exit poll, 69% of independent voters cast their ballots for the candidate backed by the CDP and DPP in addition to roughly 90% of the CDP and DPP supporters.
Kishida seems as uninspiring as the LDP leader as Suga in the eyes of voters. In the end, Kishida could not stop the losing trends in elections under Suga’s leadership. The “honeymoon period” for Kishida seems to have turned out to be a short-term illusion rather than reality. Two days prior to the election on Sunday, October 31, it seems unclear whether the LDP can retain the single-party majority by not losing more than 43 seats.
A major threat to the LDP’s retention of the single-party majority is a united front formed by the five opposition parties, i.e., CDP, Japan Communist Party (JCP), DPP, Reiwa Shinsengumi, and Social Democratic Party (SDP). The five opposition parties have a unified candidate in 213 of 289 single-seat constituency. Many LDP candidates are said to be having trouble against a united opposition candidates in 132 single-seat constituency where a LDP candidate and a unified opposition candidate fight for a seat in a one-on-one campaign battle.
One major element, which can have a major impact on election results is voter turnout. High turnout usually favors opposition parties, but polls seem to suggest turnout may be slightly higher than the post war record low of 52.66% in 2014 as there is not much real excitement among voters. Young voters, who may favor the opposition parties, have notoriously low turnout.
An astute veteran observer of Japanese politics told me “I don’t remember ever being so unsure about an election before.” I share the exact same sentiment. Voters are certainly uninspired by the LDP but are not sure to aggressively support the weak and fragmented opposition parties with JCP being part of it. Voters seem to be in a blind with choices they do not feel good about.
This is an important election as it may signal whether Japan will go into a period of political instability after a period of stability under former Prime Minister Abe, who served almost eight years till last September. I will be paying close attention to the election in two days.
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Policy Briefing: 2021 ASEAN Summit: Japan's Viewpoint with Amb. Masafumi Ishii |
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On October 20, Sasakawa USA hosted the virtual event, “2021 ASEAN Summit: Japan’s Viewpoint,” featuring Amb. Masafumi Ishii, former Japanese Ambassador to Indonesia (2017-2020). Amb. Ishii delivered a presentation on the strategic importance of ASEAN and its member states, Japan’s expectations of ASEAN, and how Japan and the United States can expand cooperation with ASEAN. He also provided his insight on his predictions for the 2021 ASEAN Summit. Amb. David Shear immediately followed with a succinct commentary from the American perspective. Following speaker remarks, Dr. Satohiro Akimoto, Chairman and President of Sasakawa USA, moderated an engaging Q&A discussion with the audience. The video of the event is available here and the written recap will be following shortly.
Event video: Amb. Ishii and Amb. Shear
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The Japan-U.S. Military Program (JUMP): JUMP Pensacola, FL |
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On October 23, Sasakawa USA in partnership with the Japan-America Society of Northwest Florida, the National Association of Japan-America Societies (NAJAS), and the Embassy of Japan held the “Japan-U.S. Military Program: U.S.-Japan Cooperative Strategy for Ensuring Peace and Security” event at the National Aviation Museum in Pensacola, Fl. Featured speakers such as RADM Jamie Kelly, USNA (Ret.), former Commander of the Naval Forces Japan; MG Hiroyuki Sugai, Defense and Air Attaché at the Embassy of Japan, Washington, DC; and The Hon. Kazuhiro Nakai, Consul-General of Japan in Miami, discussed the importance of U.S.-Japan cooperative strategy to maintain a free and open Indo-Pacific in light of new challenges in the region. This event gathered members of the armed services and government civilians who have served in Japan to foster a deeper understanding of the U.S.-Japan alliance.
Photo top: (L-R) Mr. Peter Kelley, Captain Bill Cuilik, USNA (Ret.), MG Hiroyuki Sugai, RADM Kyle Cozad, USNA (Ret.), Consul-General Kazuhiro Nakai, RADM James Kelly, USNA, (Ret.), Dr. Satohiro Akimoto. Photo bottom: Shakuhachi performance by Mr. Marco Lienhard.
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Japan Political Pulse: The 2021 General Election Campaign Kicks Off (Smith) |
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In his latest Japan Political Pulse article, “ The 2021 General Election Campaign Kicks Off,” contributing author Dr. Daniel Smith, Gerald L. Curtis Visiting Associate Professor of Modern Japanese Politics and Foreign Policy in the Department of Political Science and School of International and Public Affairs at Columbia University, provides his keen insights on Japan’s upcoming House of Representatives election. Dr. Smith examines the challenges facing the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the opposition parties such as various coalition movements and voter turnout. Furthermore, Dr. Smith also takes a look at what issues and policies the LDP and opposition are framing and shaping their electoral campaigns around. You can read the article here. Photo: Dr. Smith
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Policy Briefing: Taiwan Crisis and Japan's Strategy with LtGen Koichiro Bansho |
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In November, Sasakawa USA will host the virtual event, “Taiwan Crisis and Japan’s Strategy.” This event will feature LtGen Koichiro Bansho, JGSDF (Ret.), former Commander of the Western Army of Japan from 2013 to 2015, for a discussion on Japan’s perspective on the expectations and roles of the United States and Japan in a Taiwan contingency. The event will further explore the current threat landscape as the People’s Liberation Army gains new capabilities that may require an overhaul of the traditional roles, missions, and capabilities of Japan and the United States within its current alliance framework. LtGen Chip Gregson, USMC (Ret.) will then provide brief commentary from the American perspective. The event will be moderated by Dr. Satohiro Akimoto, Chairman and President of Sasakawa USA.
Photo: LtGen Bansho
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Policy Briefing: 2021 ASEAN Summit: U.S. Policy Toward Asia with Amb. David Shear |
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In November, Sasakawa USA will host the virtual event, “2021 ASEAN Summit: U.S. Policy Toward Asia.” This event will feature Amb. David Shear, Former U.S. Ambassador to Vietnam (2011-2014), for a discussion on the 2021 ASEAN Summit, which was held in Brunei in October. Amb. Shear will provide his remarks on the U.S. approach to cooperation under its strategic partnership with ASEAN. Dr. Nobuhiro Aizawa, Associate Professor at the Department of Cultural Studies, Graduate School of Integrated Science for Global Society at Kyushu University, will be providing a brief commentary after Amb. Shear’s remarks. The event will be moderated by Dr. Satohiro Akimoto, Chairman and President of Sasakawa USA.
Photo: Amb. Shear
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The Alliance Working in America Series (TAWA): TAWA in Dallas, TX |
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Sasakawa USA is proud to announce that the next installment of The Alliance Working in America (TAWA) series will be held in partnership with World Affairs Council of Dallas/Fort Worth (DFW) on November 30 in the DFW Metropolitan Area. The TAWA-DFW program aims to highlight the economic impact of Japanese investment in North Texas and outlook for the future of Japan-Texas relations. Dr. Satohiro Akimoto, Chairman and President of Sasakawa USA, will moderate a discussion with a panel consisting of Japanese business leaders with headquarters in the DFW area and an expert of U.S.-Japan relations. |
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The Japan-U.S. Military Program (JUMP): JUMP Washington, DC |
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On November 18, Sasakawa USA in partnership with the Japan-America Society of Washington, DC, the National War College Alumni Association, the National Association of the Japan-America Societies, and the Embassy of Japan will host the JUMP event, “Great Power Competition in the Indo-Pacific: Implications for U.S.-Japanese Regional Leadership.” Distinguished specialists will discuss U.S.-Japan defense contingencies that impact U.S. forward deployed forces and regional relationships to maintain a free and open Indo-Pacific region. |
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ADM Katsutoshi Kawano Joins Sasakawa USA Board of Directors |
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Sasakawa USA is pleased to announce that ADM Katsutoshi Kawano has joined the Sasakawa USA Board of Directors. He was the 5th Chief of Staff, Joint Staff, Japan Self-Defense Forces, from 2014 to 2019. From 2012 to 2014, he served as Chief of Staff of the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force. He previously served as the Commander in Chief of the Self-Defense Fleet, Fleet Escort Force, Mine Warfare Force, Escort Flotilla 3, and Escort Division 3. Ashore, ADM Kawano previously was the Vice Chief of Staff, Joint Staff, and the Director General of Operations and Plans Department, Maritime Staff Office. He was awarded the Legion of Merit in 2012 and 2019 for his contributions to strengthening the U.S.-Japan alliance. With the support of ADM Kawano, Sasakawa USA will continue to play a critical role in strengthening the U.S.-Japan diplomatic and security alliance.
Photo: ADM Kawano
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Advisory Committee on Projects Member Amb. Melanne Verveer Awarded the Order of the Rising Sun |
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On October 28, a conferral ceremony for a Sasakawa USA Advisory Committee on Projects member, Amb. Melanne Verveer, took place at the Japanese Ambassador’s Residence. Amb. Verveer was awarded the Order of the Rising Sun, Gold Rays with Neck Ribbon for her contributions to strengthening the relationship between the United States and Japan on international cooperation in the area of women’s empowerment. Amb. Verveer is the Director of Georgetown University’s Institute for Women, Peace and Security, and previously served as the first U.S. Ambassador-at-Large for Global Women’s Issues. She was also appointed to serve as U.S. Representative for the UN Commission on the Status of Women. It is truly an honor to work with her in strengthening the U.S.-Japan relationship. Congratulations, Amb. Verveer!
Photo: Amb. Verveer's acceptance speech at the Japanese Ambassador's Residence.
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JETAADC Launches 2021-2022 Mentorship Program |
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On October 16, the JET Alumni Association of Washington, D.C. held a virtual Opening Ceremony to celebrate the launch of its 2021-2022 Mentorship Program, which is funded through the Sasakawa USA-USJETAA 2021-2022 Mini-Grant Program for JETAA Chapters and Subchapters in the United States. This year’s mentorship cohort consists of 10 pairs of mentors and mentees from a range of professional backgrounds, including individuals working in the media, think tanks, U.S. government, and universities. In addition, JETAADC held a Networking Picnic at Virginia Highlands Park for Mentorship Program participants and the wider community of D.C.-based JET alumni to meet and discuss their career goals and professional development plans. Mentors and mentees will continue to meet over the next four months to work on professional development modules. Additional details on the Mentorship Program can be found on JETAADC's website.
Photo top: JETAA DC Mentorship Opening Ceremony featuring JETAA Executive Director Bahia Simons-Lane, bottom; Sasakawa USA Director of Programs Shanti Shoji, second from the bottom; and other JETAADC Board Members. Photo bottom: JETAADC Networking Picnic with JET Alumni.
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Sasakawa Peace Foundation USA
1819 L Street, NW
Suite 300
Washington DC 20026
202.296.6694
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