Informal Institute for National Security Thinkers and Practitioners

Quotes of the Day:

"Knowledge isn't free. You have to pay attention."

– Professor Richard Feynman

"In three words, I can sum up everything I have learned about life: it goes on."

– Robert Frost

"I can not teach anybody anything. I can only make them think."

– Socates

1. VOA: [Interview: Schaeffer, former German Ambassador to Pyongyang] “The goal of the North Korean leadership is to ‘weaken U.S.-ROK relations’… “I witnessed a conflict over the route.”

2. U.S. reaffirms 'no hostile intent' to N. Korea after Kim calls for stronger war preparations

3. N. Korea discusses light industry, state budget at party meeting

4. Former Trump aide says S. Korea's proposed tech rules would be 'gift' to China

5. Defense chief apologizes over Dokdo's description as disputed territory in education material

6. N.K. leader invites contributors in economic sector to New Year's celebrations

7. N.K.'s total fertility rate estimated at 1.38, far lower than U.N. estimate: BOK report

8. The New Star on the Political Scene: The Chip Industry

9. Peering Into the Crystal Ball: 10 National Security Predictions for 2024

10. Twelve Days of WEX-mas: New round of nuclear proliferation looms over unstable world order

11. India, South Korea explore joint projects in Sri Lanka, Bangladesh

12. Yoon, ex-President Park meet over lunch at presidential residence

13. N. Korea begins accepting subscribers to 4G cellular network

14. Pyongyang installs decorative lighting on city streets for new year celebrations

15. Russian FM on Korean peninsula: ‘knots of conflict’ in 2024

16. ＜Interview＞ How was the public execution in Hyesan carried out?…In just four months, three executions have occurred in the city… “We were lined up at our places of work and marched to the execution site”

17. Kim Jong Un encourages finding ways to create waves in S. Korea

18. N. Korean human rights bill unlikely to pass Congress this year again

1. VOA: [Interview: Schaeffer, former German Ambassador to Pyongyang] “The goal of the North Korean leadership is to ‘weaken U.S.-ROK relations’… “I witnessed a conflict over the route.”

A 42 minute interview by VOA journalist Eunjung Cho that is based on Ambassador Schaefer's recent paper (practitioner to practitioner) written for the Center for Asia Pacific Strategy (CAPS) titled “Talking Points: North Korea – Encouraging a Different Mindset in North Korea: Introduction and Recommended Talking Points on Agriculture, Food Security, Private Foreign Investment, Private Economic Activities, and Enterprise Reform.” (access here: https://apstrategy.org/2023/12/19/talkingpoints_korea_part1/)

A lot of very useful and insightful perspectives from the Ambasador based on his long years of engagement in Pyongyang.

The interview is at this link: https://www.voakorea.com/a/7416192.html?utm

[Interview: Schaeffer, former German Ambassador to Pyongyang] “The goal of the North Korean leadership is to ‘weaken U.S.-ROK relations’… “I witnessed a conflict over the route.”

Former German Ambassador Thomas Schaefer, who stayed in Pyongyang for eight years, diagnosed the North Korean leadership's political goal as 'weakening U.S.-ROK relations.' The explanation is that the very existence of South Korea, which offers North Koreans a better life, is viewed as a threat. He also said that he had witnessed the conflict between officials in North Korea, which has the only leadership system, and ordered a policy toward North Korea that encompasses the elites and North Korean residents. Reporter Cho Eun-jung interviewed Ambassador Schaeffer, who served in North Korea twice, from 2007 to 2010 and from 2013 to 2018.

2. U.S. reaffirms 'no hostile intent' to N. Korea after Kim calls for stronger war preparations

True. We have no hostile intent toward north Korea unless it attacks the ROK, Japan, or the US. If Kim Jong Un miscalculates and attacks and executes his campaign plan to try to dominate the peninsula the Kim family regime will then cease to exist. We also seek an end to the human rights abuses and crimes against humanity as well as freedom for the Korean people in the north. Otherwise we have no hostile intent.

(LEAD) U.S. reaffirms 'no hostile intent' to N. Korea after Kim calls for stronger war preparations | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Song Sang-ho · December 29, 2023

(ATTN: ADDS more info in 3rd para)

By Song Sang-ho

WASHINGTON, Dec. 28 (Yonhap) -- The United States has "no hostile intent" toward Pyongyang and remains committed to diplomacy, a State Department spokesperson said Thursday, after North Korean leader Kim Jong-un called for beefed-up war preparations.

During a plenary session of the ruling Workers' Party on Wednesday, Kim made the call, pointing to the security situation on the Korean Peninsula that he claimed has become "extremely dangerous" due to "unprecedented" U.S.-led confrontational moves against the North.

"The United States harbors no hostile intent toward the DPRK," the spokesperson told Yonhap News Agency via email, referring to the North by its official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea. "The United States has been very clear -- we seek dialogue with Pyongyang without preconditions."

The official stressed that Washington remains committed to diplomacy even as the North has launched an "unprecedented" number of ballistic missiles.

"We have also been clear that we will seek to cooperate on humanitarian issues, regardless of the status of WMD and missile-related discussions," the official said. WMD stands for weapons of mass destruction.

The spokesperson also criticized North Korea's bellicose rhetoric.

"The DPRK has engaged in threatening and irresponsible rhetoric regarding its weapons programs, including by characterizing some of its missile launches and other military activities as trial runs for the use of tactical nuclear weapons," the official said.

"We continue to consult closely with the Republic of Korea, Japan and other allies and partners about how to best engage the DPRK, deter aggression and coordinate international responses to the DPRK's violations of multiple U.N. Security Council resolutions," the official added.

Pyongyang has been ratcheting up tensions with its spy satellite launch last month and that of a solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile this month.

The moves have seen Seoul, Washington and Tokyo tightening their security cooperation, which culminated in the launch of a trilateral system for the real-time sharing of North Korean missile warning data last week.

This photo, carried by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency on Dec. 28, 2023, shows the North's leader Kim Jong-un (L) attending the ninth plenary meeting of the eighth Central Committee of the ruling Workers' Party of Korea the previous day. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)

sshluck@yna.co.kr

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en.yna.co.kr · by Song Sang-ho · December 29, 2023

3. N. Korea discusses light industry, state budget at party meeting

Note the focus on children's school uniforms, etc.

Excerpts:

The Supreme People's Assembly, North Korea's rubber-stamp parliament, will confirm the state budget for next year at its meeting set for Jan. 15.

North Korea opened the year-end party meeting Tuesday to review state policies for this year and set those for 2024. The North's leader is expected to use the ongoing meeting as a venue to deliver his key messages on external ties and nuclear weapons to replace his annual New Year's Day address.

On Wednesday, Kim called for stepped-up efforts to prepare for war, saying the United States is engaged in "unprecedented" acts of confrontation against the country.

N. Korea discusses light industry, state budget at party meeting | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Soo-yeon · December 29, 2023

SEOUL, Dec. 29 (Yonhap) -- North Korea has discussed ways to develop the light industry and reviewed a state budget proposal for next year at a key party meeting, state media reported Friday.

In the third-day session of the plenary meeting of the ruling Workers' Party on Thursday, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un called for "fresh innovation" in producing necessities for schoolchildren, according to the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).

Kim analyzed the party's 2023 policy on supplying quality school uniforms, bags and shoes to all students and called for enhancing the sense of responsibility in the light industry for the production of necessities for students, the report said.

Kim apparently seeks to promote the youths' welfare in a bid to create an image of a leader caring for North Koreans' lives and tighten the control on the people on the ideological front.

At the party meeting, North Korea also examined the execution of the state budget for this year and discussed a budget proposal for 2024, the KCNA said.

The Supreme People's Assembly, North Korea's rubber-stamp parliament, will confirm the state budget for next year at its meeting set for Jan. 15.

North Korea opened the year-end party meeting Tuesday to review state policies for this year and set those for 2024. The North's leader is expected to use the ongoing meeting as a venue to deliver his key messages on external ties and nuclear weapons to replace his annual New Year's Day address.

On Wednesday, Kim called for stepped-up efforts to prepare for war, saying the United States is engaged in "unprecedented" acts of confrontation against the country.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un attends the second-day session of a year-end plenary meeting of the Central Committee of the North's ruling Workers' Party in Pyongyang on Dec. 27, 2023, in this photo released by the North's official Korean Central News Agency. Kim called for stepped-up efforts to prepare for war, saying the United States is engaged in "unprecedented" acts of confrontation against the country. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)

sooyeon@yna.co.kr

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en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Soo-yeon · December 29, 2023

4. Former Trump aide says S. Korea's proposed tech rules would be 'gift' to China

Former Trump aide says S. Korea's proposed tech rules would be 'gift' to China | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Song Sang-ho · December 29, 2023

By Song Sang-ho

WASHINGTON, Dec. 28 (Yonhap) -- South Korea's proposed regulations to prevent unfair market activities by major online platform businesses would be a "gift" to China, a former White House advisor said Thursday, warning they could cause friction with the United States if enacted.

Robert O'Brien, who served as national security advisor for then President Donald Trump from 2019-2021, made the case in a contribution to U.S. news outlet The Hill, as Seoul pushes for the rules that would step up oversight over market-dominant players to ensure fair competition.

O'Brien said that the regulations appeared to be "Korea's own version of the European Union's Digital Market Act (DMA)," which he said would have security consequences by "unevenly" regulating the digital market apparently in favor of Chinese tech giants.

"There is much debate on the wisdom of these bills. But one factor must be considered: their national security consequences," he wrote.

"A closer look shows DMA-style regulations actually make countries more vulnerable to nefarious actors. In Korea's case, such a move would be a gift to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)," he added.

O'Brien enumerated negative effects from the proposed rules, which he claimed would undermine the competitiveness of South Korean and U.S. firms.

"For Korea, such regulations would most certainly drive up compliance costs for just a few tech companies, likely leading to diminished investment, stymied innovation, fewer consumer choices and higher prices for customers," he said.

He went on to say, "This would set American and Korean companies back years while giving CCP-controlled companies the edge in the development of the digital platforms of the future."

If enacted, South Korea's regulations could produce "unnecessary friction" between Seoul and Washington, he warned.

"This friction would come at a time when the U.S.- ROK bilateral relationship is exceptionally important to maintaining security and economic prosperity in the Indo-Pacific," he said, referring to South Korea by its official name, the Republic of Korea.

O'Brien reportedly continues to work as a foreign policy advisor for Trump who is seeking a second White House term.

He is currently chairman and co-founder of American Global Strategies LLC., a strategic advisory firm.

This AP photo shows then U.S. National Security Adviser Robert O'Brien speaking during a news conference in Phoenix, Arizona on June 24, 2020. (Yonhap)

sshluck@yna.co.kr

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en.yna.co.kr · by Song Sang-ho · December 29, 2023

5. Defense chief apologizes over Dokdo's description as disputed territory in education material

I do not think he should apologize nor do I think they should change the terminology. It is in fact disputed territory and the reality should not be ambiguous.

Defense chief apologizes over Dokdo's description as disputed territory in education material | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Chae Yun-hwan · December 29, 2023

SEOUL, Dec. 29 (Yonhap) -- South Korea's defense chief has apologized over the description of the country's easternmost islets of Dokdo as a disputed territory in the military's newly published educational material for troops.

On Thursday, the ministry began recalling the basic educational material after President Yoon Suk Yeol instructed immediate corrections. The material had listed Dokdo among disputes between major countries around the Korean Peninsula, such as China, Russia and Japan.

"As I made the final decision on its publication, all responsibility lies with me," Defense Minister Shin Won-sik told reporters on Thursday. "I should have looked into it in detail before it was published, and I apologized (to the president) for not doing so."

This file photo, taken Oct. 23, 2023, shows South Korea's easternmost islets of Dokdo in the East Sea. (Yonhap)

The material had said such countries project their military power abroad for their national interests and military conflicts could occur at any time as territorial disputes, including the Diaoyudao/Senkaku Islands, the Kuril Islands and the "Dokdo issue," are ongoing.

Japan and China have been in a dispute over the Diaoyudao Islands, known as the Senkaku Islands in Japan, while Japan and Russia have been at odds over the Kuril Islands known in Japan as the Northern Territories.

Seoul has rejected the existence of any territorial dispute over Dokdo, calling the set of rocky islets an integral part of South Korean territory in terms of history, geography and international law.

Separately, the Navy staged regular defense drills around Dokdo earlier this month, according to a military official.

The latest exercise took place in mid-December at a similar scale as the last one in June, with Navy and Coast Guard ships and without Marines landing on the islets, according to the official.

It marked the fourth such exercise under the Yoon administration.

South Korea launched the Dokdo drills in 1986 and has conducted them twice a year since 2003.

yunhwanchae@yna.co.kr

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en.yna.co.kr · by Chae Yun-hwan · December 29, 2023

6. N.K. leader invites contributors in economic sector to New Year's celebrations

Excerpt:

In contrast to major achievements in the military sector, North Korea's economic difficulties have been deepening amid U.N. sanctions imposed due to Pyongyang's nuclear and missile programs.

The economic problems are not the result of UN sanctions but due to the deliberate policy decisions of Kim Jong Un to prioritize military developoverne tover economic development and the welfare of the Korean people in the north who suffer and sacrifice to keep Kim Jong un in power.

N.K. leader invites contributors in economic sector to New Year's celebrations | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Soo-yeon · December 29, 2023

SEOUL, Dec. 29 (Yonhap) -- North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has invited people who contributed to attaining this year's key economic goals to Pyongyang for New Year's celebrations, state media reported Friday.

North Korea is preparing to hold celebration events in the capital to mark the start of the new year, according to the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).

Kim has invited what the North dubbed hard-working innovators in terms of the country's 12 economic goals to the upcoming celebrations, it said.

Since Kim took power in late 2011, North Korea has displayed nighttime fireworks and held celebratory performances on New Year's Eve.

Last year, the country invited those engaged in the military and munitions sectors as guests of honor to the celebrations. In 2022, North Korea doubled down on provocations by firing a record number of ballistic missiles.

In contrast to major achievements in the military sector, North Korea's economic difficulties have been deepening amid U.N. sanctions imposed due to Pyongyang's nuclear and missile programs.

This file photo, carried by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency on Jan. 1, 2023, shows the North holding celebrations for the New Year's holiday in Pyongyang. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)

This photo, carried by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency on Dec. 29, 2023, shows contributors in the economic sector arriving at a station in Pyongyang the previous day to attend New Year's celebrations. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)

sooyeon@yna.co.kr

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en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Soo-yeon · December 29, 2023

7. N.K.'s total fertility rate estimated at 1.38, far lower than U.N. estimate: BOK report

Could women from the north and men from the South have a positive impact on the overall Korean birth rate when unification occurs?

N.K.'s total fertility rate estimated at 1.38, far lower than U.N. estimate: BOK report | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Soo-yeon · December 29, 2023

SEOUL, Dec. 29 (Yonhap) -- North Korea's total fertility rate is presumed to have been far lower than a U.N. estimate amid a delay in marriages and women's increased economic activities, a report from South Korea's central bank showed Friday.

North Korea's total fertility rate -- the average number of children that are expected to be born to a woman over her lifetime -- is estimated to have reached 1.38 in the 2010s, down from 1.59 in the 2000s and 1.91 from the 1990s, according to the report by the Economic Research Institute at the Bank of Korea (BOK).

The report was written based on a survey on North Korean defectors who escaped the repressive regime in the years before 2019. A BOK team asked questions about experiences of marriages and child births of their 1,137 relatives and friends in North Korea.

The BOK's projected figure is far lower than the U.N. population fund's estimate of 1.8 for 2023. It is much lower than the replacement level of 2.1 that would keep North Korea's population stable at 26 million.

This image, captured from the website of North Korea's propaganda media outlet Voice of Korea on Dec. 21, 2023, shows a kindergarten in Pyongyang. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)

"A country's birthrate tends to fall when income levels rise. But even though North Korea is a low-income country, its total fertility rate unusually remains very low," the report said.

It cited a delay in marriages in North Korea and an increased number of women engaged in economic activities at market places as the main reasons for the fall in the birthrate. Growing individualism that emerged in Pyongyang and other cities is also attributable to the decline.

Accordingly, North Korea's working-age population, or people aged 15 to 64, is forecast to decline from 2021-2030 and the country's total population could fall, the report said.

In light of this demographic situation, it would be difficult to expect that a potential unification of the two Koreas could slow the pace of a sharp fall in South Korea's working-age population or the South's rapid aging, it added.

Earlier this month, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un called for measures to prevent a fall in the country's birthrate in the first national meeting of mothers in 11 years.

Seoul's unification ministry said Kim publicly mentioned a decline in the birthrate for the first time, an indication that the nation is grappling with the issue.

sooyeon@yna.co.kr

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en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Soo-yeon · December 29, 2023

8. The New Star on the Political Scene: The Chip Industry

Excerpts:

The era of chip diplomacy for the U.S. and its allies follows a global semiconductor shortage that revealed the central role the components play in many industries. An aggressive U.S. campaign to block China’s access to high-end chips, and the machines that can make them, added more prominence to the industry. And the boom in generative artificial intelligence has presented a new promise for semiconductors.

...

Hinting at the chip focus of the South Korean state visit, Samsung Chairman Lee Jae-yong, who accompanied Yoon to the Netherlands, said “around 90%” of the trip had dealt with semiconductors.

As they lobby for more funding, chip makers have also become more familiar with the complexities and sometimes plodding pace of the political sphere. TSMC’s Arizona project has been slowed by a labor spat that it wouldn’t have faced at home in Taiwan. The U.S. enacted its $53 billion Chips Act in 2022, but the Commerce Department, which is overseeing it, has only made a $35 million grant so far.

“I joke that the Commerce Department is like the dog that caught the bus,” Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger said in an interview. “This was way bigger than anything that they had ever done before.”

The idea of state governments locking arms with a specific industry isn’t unprecedented, policy experts said, whether it was during the competition over oil in the 1970s or the rush to procure vaccines during the Covid-19 pandemic.

The New Star on the Political Scene: The Chip Industry

Increased attention from politicians poses opportunities and challenges for the semiconductor industry

https://www.wsj.com/tech/the-new-star-on-the-political-scene-the-chip-industry-36740aed?mod=Searchresults_pos3&page=1

By Jiyoung Sohn

in Seoul and Asa Fitch

in New York

Updated Dec. 29, 2023 12:06 am ET

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, center, in Malaysia. He has been in talks with Asian governments about the company’s products. PHOTO: VINCENT THIAN/ASSOCIATED PRESS

Semiconductors have played the starring role in state visits.

Nvidia’s chief executive was feted by heads of state like a visiting dignitary. Government delegations have shuttled around the globe hobnobbing with chip makers. For an industry that suddenly finds itself as a geopolitical showpiece, the attention is a mixed bag.

The spotlight has translated to offers of government-provided funding that helps reduce the vast costs of designing, engineering and manufacturing the tech components. But companies face more trade regulations than ever, with increasing attention from policy makers and the public. Governments are still learning the intricacies of the semiconductor industry, one of the tech world’s most complex arenas.

“It cuts both ways for companies,” said Chris Miller, of Tufts University, the author of a book about the global chip war. “They don’t want to be facing new regulations and restrictions, but if there are going to be incentives on offer, they want to make the most of it.”

How the Chips That Power AI Work

Peering Into the Crystal Ball: 10 National Security Predictions for 2024

What we think will happen, for better or worse, in 2024.

By Robbie Gramer, a diplomacy and national security reporter at Foreign Policy, and Jack Detsch, a Pentagon and national security reporter at Foreign Policy.

Foreign Policy · by Robbie Gramer, Jack Detsch ·

December 28, 2023, 5:00 PM

Welcome back to Foreign Policy’s SitRep! Robbie and Jack here. Hope everyone got a nice holiday break and spent time with their family, friends, and loved ones relaxing and, more importantly, nagging them all to subscribe to Foreign Policy. (Hey, the best things in life aren’t free.)

Alright, here’s what’s on tap for the day: A look ahead at some of the biggest national security headaches of 2024 and our predictions on what the new year could bring in the world of foreign policy. (Spoiler alert: There’s some doom and gloom to come.)

So, What Comes Next?

By all accounts, 2023 was an absolutely insane year. There was the spy balloon incident; Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin’s untimely demise; the Israel-Hamas war, which shook the foundations of an already shaky Middle East; Russia’s war in Ukraine, which continued to rage; a fast-unraveling conflict in Sudan; Azerbaijan’s lightning offensive against Armenia over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh territory. We could go on, but let’s not.

Looking ahead to 2024 and there are plenty of things in the world to keep national security wonks up at night. Then there are elections in Taiwan, India, the European Union, Mexico, South Africa, Indonesia, and, oh, we almost forgot, the United States as well.

Here at SitRep, we’ve decided to make some predictions about what’s to come in 2024, big and small, based on interviews over the past few weeks and months with dozens of government officials, lawmakers, and foreign-policy experts. (We’d also like to stress that, in many instances, we hope our predictions are wrong.)

Some may come true, some may not, and either way our readers can call us out on how off the mark we were in about a year. (So mark your calendars.)

But nothing ventured, nothing gained, right? So, without further ado, here is the “SitRep: Crystal Ball” edition of what we think awaits us in the scary near-future.

1. U.S. elections results. Let’s start with the easy one: What will happen in the U.S. presidential election? Political pundits are famously very bad at predicting election results, and then getting paid to do more of it in the next cycle, so we decided we’re going to join in on the fun. We predict that after a grueling and exhausting Biden-Trump rematch, U.S. President Joe Biden will narrowly eke out a win for a second term, in yet another election cycle marred by disinformation that will muddy the waters on what’s fact and what’s not, with more shouts about “stolen votes.” Meanwhile, we predict that Republicans will regain control of the Senate by two or three seats, and Democrats will gain narrow control of the House by under 10 seats, setting the stage for another complex, messy, political headache of a divided government.

2. North Korea will conduct its seventh nuclear test. U.S. efforts to restart any real dialogue with North Korea have failed, and all the while North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is slowly but surely expanding his country’s nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities despite punishing international sanctions. North Korea conducted six explosive nuclear tests between 2006 and 2017, and we predict that 2024 is the year that it notches a seventh, in what will constitute another major diplomatic crisis on the Korean Peninsula and a reminder that decades of U.S. pressure to get Pyongyang to abandon its quest for the bomb have all failed.

3. More coups in Africa’s “Coup Belt.” There have been six coups in West Africa in recent years as ailing and fragile democracies succumb to military takeovers amid a war against Islamist terrorist groups, which are gaining ground across the Sahel. The United States and Western allies, namely France, banked most of their hopes on Niger as their last best hope for a bastion of democracy and stability to partner with on counterterrorism operations … until Niger fell to a coup in July. We predict that the next domino to fall will be Chad, the West’s next “last best hope” counterterrorism partner in the region. Chad’s leader, Mahamat Idriss Déby, son of the late Chadian leader Idriss Déby, seized power after his father’s death in 2021 in something that resembled a coup itself. Now, his grip on power is shaky, and it’s unclear if he can beat the odds of escaping yet another coup in Africa’s Coup Belt.

4. Sudan’s military leader will get ousted. And speaking of coups… The conflict in Sudan has taken a grim turn in recent weeks, even if attention on the dire crisis there is being eclipsed by the Israel-Hamas war. We predict that Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the leader of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and de facto head of the country, will be ousted by elements of his own military after embarrassing setbacks and defeats against the rival Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Most recently, the Sudanese city of Wad Madani, once a relatively stable bastion of peace and humanitarian operations, fell swiftly to the RSF in a major blow to the SAF. Regardless of Burhan’s prospects for staying in power, Sudan has become one of the world’s worst (and most tragically overlooked) humanitarian crises, and that isn’t likely to change in 2024.

5. A stalemate in Ukraine. Thanks in part to sluggish support and political impasse from the United States and other Western allies, Ukraine didn’t have enough guns, equipment, or ammo to punch a hole in Russia’s well-fortified defensive lines in eastern Ukraine during its 2023 counteroffensive. But neither do Russian forces have the capability, morale, training, or effective fighting prowess to make significant gains in any counter-counteroffensives of their own. We predict that 2024 will look a lot like the bloody but static World War I battles of 1915 and 1916, with heavy artillery bashing entrenched positions, more deadly battles that yield little territorial gains, and little to show for Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ill-fated war besides a higher death toll on both sides.

Construction workers climb onto the roof of a destroyed church in the village of Bohorodychne in the Donetsk region on Jan. 4, after Ukraine recaptured control of the town amid the Russia-Ukraine war.

6. More funds unlocked for Ukraine. Ever since Russia launched its latest invasion of Ukraine, Western officials have been grappling with what to do about the $300 billion in assets from Russian oligarchs that regulators have frozen. Some countries have long called for seizing those funds and sending them to Ukraine, while others worry about the precedent that sets in protecting sovereign assets in the eyes of international law, even when it comes to Russia. We predict that 2024 is the year there’s a breakthrough on this roughly two-year debate and the United States and European allies find a legal pathway to siphon all those frozen funds to Ukraine (especially after U.S. funds for Ukraine got ensnared in a thorny political battle in Congress and more European Union funds were blocked by Putin’s most reliable ally in the EU, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban.)

7. The Israel-Hamas war won’t expand to a (full) second front. One of the biggest fears in the ongoing Israel-Hamas war is that Hamas’s better-equipped, more battle-hardened ally in Lebanon, Hezbollah, will fully dive into the war against Israel. We predict that even as Israel and Hezbollah trade limited pot shots on the northern border, this won’t happen, thanks in part to the deterrent effect of the ongoing U.S. aircraft carrier presence in the Mediterranean, and all the overwhelming firepower that comes with it, which will make Hezbollah and its backers in Iran hold off from diving headfirst into the fight.

8. More dangerous maneuvers in the South China Sea. With the Taiwan Strait at a lower simmer since then-U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s 2022 visit to Taiwan, which prompted (or perhaps coincided with) a bevy of Chinese exercises, the main military tit-for-tat in the Indo-Pacific has moved to the South China Sea. There, China has spent a decade building up artificial islands, very real airfields, and a fright for all in the region.

Lately, Chinese vessels have repeatedly harassed Philippine resupply missions to the Second Thomas Shoal, a disputed area off the west coast of the archipelago. The Philippines, which has taken an increasingly hawkish tack on China since Ferdinand Marcos Jr. took over as president in 2022, grounded a U.S. World War II-era ship on the shoal in 1999 in an effort to claim it. And China has harassed resupply vessels with dangerous maneuvers and water cannons in an effort to scare Manila away. SitRep expects the trend to continue in 2024, as the U.S. Defense Department has also complained of increasing recklessness by Chinese ships and planes, not just at the Second Thomas Shoal but throughout the whole area of operations.

9. Sweden actually finally joins NATO. After Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Finland and Sweden rushed to shrug off their history of nonalignment and join NATO. NATO countries welcomed both with open arms—or at least most of them did. Finland got in, but Sweden has not yet, thanks to an 18-month filibuster by Turkey. (All NATO countries need to greenlight a new member before it can happen.) Hungary, run by Russia’s ally, has dragged its heels on Sweden’s NATO accession, too. This has become a massive diplomatic headache for the alliance. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan linked Sweden’s accession to a U.S. deal to approve sales of F-16 fighter jets to Turkey. Congress has blocked that deal over anger at Erdogan but also wants Sweden in NATO ASAP. We predict that U.S. and Turkish negotiators will work with Sweden to overcome that impasse in 2024 and NATO will finally expand from 31 to 32 members.

10. Global health community goes on the offensive against malaria. Let’s end on a happy note. Malaria remains a top cause of child mortality worldwide, but recent scientific breakthroughs have led for the first time ever to malaria vaccines. There are now two malaria vaccines being slowly rolled out across disease-vulnerable countries in Africa. (An estimated 619,000 people died of malaria in Africa in 2021, many of them children.) While supply shortages made rolling out these vaccines on a massive scale difficult in 2022 and 2023, we predict that the global health community can overcome those bottlenecks in 2024 and make real, tangible, verifiable progress toward achieving the World Health Organization’s goal of eliminating malaria by 2030.

Snapshot

An Israel Defense Forces artillery unit, using a self-propelled artillery howitzer, fires toward Gaza near the border in southern Israel on Dec. 11.

An Israel Defense Forces artillery unit, using a self-propelled artillery howitzer, fires toward Gaza near the border in southern Israel on Dec. 11. Alexi J. Rosenfeld/Getty Images

Put on Your Radar

Here’s a rundown of some big events coming up in 2024 to plan for.

Jan. 13: Taiwan holds its presidential election in a cycle that will have outsized importance for the self-governing island’s future relationship with China.

Jan. 15-19: Global elites gather for the world’s premiere gabfest at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

Feb. 14: Indonesia holds its presidential election in what will be the world’s largest single-day elections.

Feb. 16-18: World leaders and national security experts gather in Munich for the annual Munich Security Conference.

April-May: India, the world’s largest democracy, holds general elections over the course of several weeks.

July 9-11: NATO leaders will convene in Washington for a major NATO summit.

Sept. 24: World leaders will begin convening in New York for the U.N. General Assembly high-level week, as part of the General Assembly’s 79th session.

Nov. 5: Election Day in the United States. Need we say more?

Foreign Policy · by Robbie Gramer, Jack Detsch ·

10. Twelve Days of WEX-mas: New round of nuclear proliferation looms over unstable world order

Excerpts:

“People have seen what happened to Ukraine when they gave up their nukes,” Rep. Mike Waltz (R-FL), who sits on the House committees that oversee the Pentagon, the State Department, and the intelligence community, said. “People saw what happened [to Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein], people saw what happened to Libya, they see the threat that South Korea is under, completely reliant on the U.S for their deterrent. So I think you're gonna continue to see — sadly, scarily — you’re gonna see proliferation.”

...

Russia’s war in Ukraine has been enabled in part by Kremlin cooperation with Iran and North Korea, two regimes that have the potential to spark nuclear crises on their own. North Korea's Kim Jong Un began 2023 with a warning that his regime’s nuclear force is not tasked with the defense of the regime alone — “the second mission is not defense,” he said — and he has overseen a flurry of short-range missile launches and five intercontinental ballistic missile tests in 2024.

“North Korea continues to perfect its long-range missile and nuclear capabilities in ways that are antithetical not only to the region but to the United States as well,” Kurt Campbell, the lead White House official for the Indo-Pacific and Biden’s nominee for deputy secretary of state, told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee during his Dec. 7 nomination hearing. “I am worried that North Korea in the current environment has decided that they are no longer interested in diplomacy with the United States. And that means that we are going to have to focus even more on deterrence.”

Twelve Days of WEX-mas: New round of nuclear proliferation looms over unstable world order

by Joel Gehrke, Foreign Affairs Reporter December 28, 2023 06:00 AM

Washington Examiner · December 28, 2023

In the spirit of the season, the Washington Examiner has identified 12 issues we believe will shape 2024 — and beyond. These close-up examinations of agenda-setting issues cover everything from the ongoing battle between the Biden family's business deals and Republican Oversight, the emergence of a "new world order," and fights over redistricting and new election maps. Part Four is about said "new world order."

President Joe Biden and other Western leaders could soon face a world upended by the spread of nuclear weapons, current and former Western officials fear, as a wide range of threats spur more governments to grab for the bomb.

“Nuclear proliferation is now much, much more dangerous than it has been since 1945,” said Janis Kazocins, whose seven-year tenure as national security adviser to the president of Latvia, a NATO ally, ended in 2023. “It’s much more likely, on a larger scale, and is one of the three or four existential threats to humanity, which our children and grandchildren will have to face during this century.”

TRUMP LEGAL WOES COME BARRELING TOWARD SUPREME COURT ON THREE KEY FRONTS

The security pressures driving that ominous forecast have been accumulating for three decades, with rogue states such as North Korea relying on their nuclear weapons arsenal to foreclose the possibility of regime change at foreign hands. Yet 2024 could be the year that the strategic argument in favor of nuclear proliferation outweighs the diplomatic costs, even if democracies long faithful to the international ban on the acquisition of nuclear weapons continue to postpone a policy change.

“People have seen what happened to Ukraine when they gave up their nukes,” Rep. Mike Waltz (R-FL), who sits on the House committees that oversee the Pentagon, the State Department, and the intelligence community, said. “People saw what happened [to Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein], people saw what happened to Libya, they see the threat that South Korea is under, completely reliant on the U.S for their deterrent. So I think you're gonna continue to see — sadly, scarily — you’re gonna see proliferation.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin, center, delivers his speech as he attends a flag-raising ceremony for newly-built nuclear submarines at the Sevmash shipyard in Severodvinsk in Russia's Archangelsk region, Monday, Dec. 11, 2023.

Kirill Iodas/AP

U.S. leaders since the Second World War have managed to limit the spread of nuclear weapons by persuading less powerful allies that they can shelter secure under the protection of an American nuclear umbrella. That project included a negotiation to persuade Ukraine to relinquish its nuclear weapons in 1994, following the collapse of the Soviet Union, in exchange for so-called security assurances from the United States, the United Kingdom, and Russia, which also signed a 1997 treaty affirming the inviolability of Ukrainian borders.

With Ukraine now at war and U.S. policymakers in both parties debating the prudence of backing an attempt to expel Russian forces from all Ukrainian territory, the American umbrella looks leakier than ever.

“Yes, but I would just make the point that we sent that signal around the world in 2014,” Waltz said, referring to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s initial maneuver to annex Crimea. “Not now with this debate, where we're saying, 'Well, wait a minute: We stopped the sucking chest wound, you know, we kept the patient alive, but now we need to have a real debate on what kind of what the long term wellness plan is.'”

Russia’s war in Ukraine has been enabled in part by Kremlin cooperation with Iran and North Korea, two regimes that have the potential to spark nuclear crises on their own. North Korea's Kim Jong Un began 2023 with a warning that his regime’s nuclear force is not tasked with the defense of the regime alone — “the second mission is not defense,” he said — and he has overseen a flurry of short-range missile launches and five intercontinental ballistic missile tests in 2024.

“North Korea continues to perfect its long-range missile and nuclear capabilities in ways that are antithetical not only to the region but to the United States as well,” Kurt Campbell, the lead White House official for the Indo-Pacific and Biden’s nominee for deputy secretary of state, told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee during his Dec. 7 nomination hearing. “I am worried that North Korea in the current environment has decided that they are no longer interested in diplomacy with the United States. And that means that we are going to have to focus even more on deterrence.”

To that end, Biden and South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol affirmed that South Korean defense is “backed by the full range of U.S. capabilities, including nuclear,” as the so-called Washington Declaration put it. That language was designed to leave South Koreans “feel[ing] that they are sharing nuclear weapons with the United States,” as one of Yoon’s top advisers put it, but that sensation might fade if Ukraine is perceived as losing the war.

“I think the fate of Ukraine is really going to be the deciding factor here,” a Pentagon strategist told the Washington Examiner in reference to South Korea’s potential interest in nuclear weapons. “If Ukraine goes south, that really will become a real point of contention.”

While the possession of nuclear weapons by a U.S. ally might not seem like a terrible outcome, at first glance, it means more "countries having the ability to destroy the world,” as Waltz put it, and fewer resources invested in conventional defense.

"For example, Japan is increasing its defense budget to 2% of its GDP,” Waltz said. "But if they're going to spend the vast majority of that of developing a nuclear triad from scratch, then there's an opportunity cost of having real capabilities in the western Pacific, where the U.S. has struggled from a logistics standpoint.”

U.S. efforts to contain the spread of nuclear weapons in the Middle East also face a severe strain. Campbell, in his Senate testimony, conceded that he doesn’t “think anyone sees that there’s any chance in the current environment to go back” to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, which former President Donald Trump exited in 2018. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said in September that “if they get one, we have to get one.” That blunt declaration underscored the Biden administration’s interest in a normalization deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia, underpinned by "some form of security guarantee” and military assistance, as a Washington Institute analyst put it in September.

Those negotiations were interrupted on Oct. 7, when Iran-backed Hamas terrorists rampaged across southern Israel, igniting the war in Gaza. The eruption of violence raised U.S. and Israeli fears that the conflict would widen into a war with Iran’s larger terrorist proxy, Lebanese Hezbollah. That hasn’t come to pass, to the relief of many, but Iran’s seeming decision to keep Hezbollah on the sidelines points to a desire for those forces to remain intact and available to deter an Israeli strike on their nuclear forces.

“They're holding the Hezbollah ace card [because] they’re continuing to march towards weaponization and testing a nuclear device,” Waltz said. "So if that happens, then we have a full-blown nuclear arms race in the Middle East. Nobody in the Middle East believes we're going to [risk] a full-blown nuclear conflagration [to protect] a city in the Gulf.”

CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER

There’s no sure way to predict when such a crisis might emerge, whether in 2024 or further down the line, analysts agree. And yet the components of such a crisis seem to loom larger on the horizon, leaving officials and observers to wonder what event will demonstrate that the world has been on the threshold of a new era in the nuclear age.

“Now, if you add to all of this, the fact that, of the countries we're talking about which possess nuclear weapons, some are very unstable … we have serious problems,” Kazocins, the former Latvian national security adviser and a retired general in the British army, said. “We're starting to lose our grip on nuclear proliferation. And that's really, really dangerous.”

Washington Examiner · December 28, 2023

11. India, South Korea explore joint projects in Sri Lanka, Bangladesh

The global pivotal state contributing to a free and open INDOPACIFIC.

India, South Korea explore joint projects in Sri Lanka, Bangladesh

2 min read 28 Dec 2023, 12:56 PM IST

Join us Shashank MattooThe development reflects a renewed focus on bilateral relations between India and South Korea, with Seoul seen expanding its strategic interests beyond East Asia.

Livemint · by Shashank Mattoo · December 28, 2023

While talks are still in early stages, the development is significant as it reflects a renewed focus on bilateral relations between India and South Korea, with Seoul seen expanding its strategic interests beyond East Asia.

Mint had earlier reported that South Korean president Yoon Suk-Yeol is eyeing a visit to India to push key projects and discuss strategic technologies, the Indo-Pacific Oceans Initiative and China-related matters.

This also comes on the heels of India's aim to partner key countries such as the US, the UK, Germany and Japan to deliver projects in third countries. Resources and technical expertise from a number of these nations will help improve India’s pitch for greater integration with its neighbours, countering China's regional economic influence.

On the sidelines of the G20 Summit in September, Prime Minister Narendra Modi met South Korean president Yoon and discussed trade, investments, defense, semiconductors, and battery technologies as well as their bilateral Special Strategic Partnership along with global and regional issues.

Seoul has been eager to strengthen ties with India. The nation's "New Southern Policy," implemented under former president Moon Jae-in, sought to focus on ASEAN and India.

“First, we will advance our special strategic partnership with India, a leading regional partner with shared values. India presents great potential for growth, having the world’s second largest population and cutting-edge IT and space technologies," read Korea’s newly released Indo-Pacific strategy. “We will increase strategic communication and cooperation through high-level exchanges in foreign affairs and defense, while strengthening the foundation for enhanced economic cooperation by upgrading the ROK-India Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA)," it added.

Another highlight of this cooperation is the recently unveiled trilateral between India, the US and South Korea on strategic technologies, which was initiated as Washington and Seoul launched their Next Generation Critical and Emerging Technologies Dialogue earlier in December.

Seoul and Washington agreed to hold “National Security Council and National Security Office-led consultations with like-minded partners on critical and emerging technologies including through launching an informal trilateral technology dialogue with India in the first quarter of 2024".

During South Korea foreign minister Park Jin's visit to India in April, discussions centered on commerce, investment, and technology, underscoring the growing partnership between the two nations.

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Published: 28 Dec 2023, 12:56 PM IST

Topics You May Be Interested In

Livemint · by Shashank Mattoo · December 28, 2023

12. Yoon, ex-President Park meet over lunch at presidential residence

Yoon, ex-President Park meet over lunch at presidential residence | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Haye-ah · December 29, 2023

SEOUL, Dec. 29 (Yonhap) -- President Yoon Suk Yeol and former President Park Geun-hye met over lunch at the presidential residence in Seoul on Friday, Yoon's office said.

This was their third meeting since Yoon's inauguration in May 2022.

Yoon asked Park about her health and how often she visits Seoul, according to presidential spokesperson Kim Soo-kyung. The former president has lived in her hometown of Daegu, 237 kilometers southeast of Seoul, since she was pardoned in 2021 after spending four years and nine months in prison on corruption charges.

President Yoon Suk Yeol (R) talks with former President Park Geun-hye over a luncheon at Yoon's official residence in Seoul on Dec. 29, 2023, in this photo released by the presidential office. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)

When Park replied that she visits Seoul once every one or two months, Yoon invited her to visit at ease more often, Kim said.

The relationship between the two dates back to 2016 when Yoon, then a prosecutor, led an investigation team into Park's corruption scandal that led to her impeachment, ouster from office and subsequent imprisonment.

After lunch, Yoon and Park took a walk in the garden inside the residence compound, and Yoon explained the house was built for the foreign minister to receive guests at the orders of Park's father and former President Park Chung-hee in 1968.

The presidential residence was formerly used as the foreign minister's official residence until Yoon moved in last year to be close to the new presidential office, which he relocated from Cheong Wa Dae to what was then the defense ministry compound, upon taking office.

President Yoon Suk Yeol (R) and former President Park Geun-hye take a stroll on the premises of Yoon's official residence in Seoul on Dec. 29, 2023, after a luncheon together, in this photo released by the presidential office. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)

hague@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Haye-ah · December 29, 2023

13. N. Korea begins accepting subscribers to 4G cellular network

Our information warfare experts should be working with technology companies to figure out how to penetrate and exploit north Korean systems

N. Korea begins accepting subscribers to 4G cellular network

“People who have used [the 4G network] say the signal is really good, with no interruptions when browsing the intranet or watching shows," a source told Daily NK

By Mun Dong Hui - 2023.12.29 10:00am

dailynk.com

N. Korea begins accepting subscribers to 4G cellular network | Daily NK English

North Koreans browse for cell phones on sale at a shop. (Sogwang)

North Korea recently began accepting subscribers to the country’s new 4G cellular network, but many people appear to be waiting to subscribe until 4G coverage improves throughout the country.

Speaking on condition of anonymity for security reasons, a source in North Korea told Daily NK in a phone conversation on Dec. 21 that North Korea is “accepting subscribers for 4G cellular services.”

However, the authorities have completed the construction of 4G cell towers in only some areas of the country.

“New and used equipment and supplies for 4G mobile services were imported from China,” the source said. “Technical manuals [for 4G] came from China, too. The leading central government organizations pushing 4G services are the Cabinet and the Non-permanent Economic Development Committee, while the Information Technology Bureau issues technological guidance directives. Provincial, city and county post offices and mobile communication centers organize the implementation of the project, with local people’s committees lending help as well.”

Daily NK reported in October that North Korea imported communications equipment from China to build 3G and 4G cellular networks.

A smartphone advertisement with the slogans “4G” in English and Korean appeared in images of the “Light Industry Development-2023” exhibition published by the North Korean propaganda outlet “DPRK Today,” sparking speculation that the country was commercializing 4G services.

Daily NK has now confirmed that North Korea is accepting 4G subscribers and starting services in some regions. North Korean authorities tell the public that the new cellular network is “faster than you can imagine” and that its signal reaches underground — where services were previously limited — and other places where signals have normally been weak.

In short, North Korea is recruiting subscribers by stressing that 4G users no longer need to worry about signal strength.

“I understand that [4G services] are in use only in the central districts of Pyongyang so far,” the source told Daily NK. “People who have subscribed to the new network say the signal is really good, with no interruptions when browsing the intranet or watching shows.”

However, he said the signal almost wholly disappears when users are far from a base station and, as a result, “people with 4G devices are holding on to their 3G devices, using both phones together.”

Mobile devices in South Korea automatically switch to 3G when 4G signals are unavailable. North Korean phones, however, do not automatically revert to 3G. Daily NK was unable to determine whether this is due to technical issues or because the government has deliberately disabled that function on the phones.

“You can use 4G with domestically made smartphones like the Jindallae, Hwawon, Madusan, Chongsong, Chollyong and Arirang,” the source said. “[The authorities] are implementing the project with the goal of constructing over 80% of planned cell towers by 2025.”

However, few people are rushing to subscribe to 4G services, with many adopting a wait-and-see approach.

“People think there’s no real need to buy [a 4G device] until there are at least three 4G towers [nearby],” the source said. “[Only] people with money are buying 4G devices at this point.

“It’s not too much trouble to use 3G devices because if the signal is weak, you can just go somewhere where it’s strong, or if you’re out of service range, you can just go somewhere where there’s service,” he continued, adding: “Since most people think they can simply buy 4G devices when the 4G system works well everywhere, they’re ignoring 4G services for now.”

Translated by David Black. Edited by Robert Lauler.

Daily NK works with a network of sources who live inside North Korea, China and elsewhere. Their identities remain anonymous due to security concerns. More information about Daily NK’s reporting partner network and information gathering activities can be found on our FAQ page here.

Please direct any comments or questions about this article to dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.

Read in Korean

Mun Dong Hui

Mun Dong Hui is one of Daily NK’s full-time journalists. Please direct any questions about his articles to dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.

dailynk.com

14. Pyongyang installs decorative lighting on city streets for new year celebrations

Sigh.... Look at the priorities and policy decisions made by Kim Jong Un.

This excerpt gives new meaning to be ing tone deaf (or blind?) to the situation and needs of the people).

Excerpts:

Furthermore, the government warned that any criticism of insufficient resources or electricity by officials involved in the decorative lighting project would be considered a “political issue,” not just simple complaints.

This suggests that the authorities anticipated complaints about the decorative lighting project due to insufficient supplies of electricity.

Presently, urban management departments of people’s committees throughout the city have been installing flashing decorative lights on street lamps and trees.

Decorative lights are installed on Pyongyang streets at the end of every year. This year, however, the central government is emphasizing their importance even more than before; as a result, party officials are struggling to secure enough materials to complete the project.

Pyongyang party officials are even travelling to various regions, including Pyongsong, to obtain small light bulbs to use for the decorative lighting.

Pyongyang installs decorative lighting on city streets for new year celebrations

The electricity supply situation in Pyongyang is so bad these days that only the areas where high-ranking officials live receive around two hours of electricity per day, a source told Daily NK

By Jong So Yong - 2023.12.29 4:00pm

dailynk.com

Pyongyang installs decorative lighting on city streets for new year celebrations | Daily NK English

New Year’s Eve celebrations in Pyongyang’s Kim Il Sung Square to celebrate the coming of 2019. (KCTV)

North Korea’s central government recently ordered Pyongyang authorities to install decorative lighting on the city’s street as part of end-of-the-year celebrations. Some people, however, are saying that the authorities are wasting precious electricity on a useless project.

Speaking on condition of anonymity for security reasons, a source in Pyongyang told Daily NK on Dec. 18 that “with the end of the year approaching, the central government ordered Pyongyang authorities to beautifully decorate the streets of the capital with lights.” Since then, people’s committees in each of the city’s districts have been working hard to install decorative lights.

The government also ordered that “each district must ensure that all street lights and decorative lights on every street in Pyongyang be kept on from 8 PM to 11 PM,” the source said.

In particular, the central government emphasized that the central district of Pyongyang and those districts that have politically significant structures should divide up available electricity so that the lights can be turned on and off at the correct times without incident.

With the knowledge that there is not enough electricity to keep street lamps on, the central government ordered districts to take special care in keeping the lights on in places where there are revolutionary historic sites or other major sites managed by the Workers’ Party, even if they have to take turns using the electricity supply.

At the same time, the central government explained that the purpose behind decorating the night streets of the capital with brilliant lights and keeping street lights on is for the enjoyment and convenience of Pyongyang citizens.

The government also warned that if relevant officials fail to meet the party’s expectations by not managing the electricity supply properly, they may face legal consequences.

Furthermore, the government warned that any criticism of insufficient resources or electricity by officials involved in the decorative lighting project would be considered a “political issue,” not just simple complaints.

This suggests that the authorities anticipated complaints about the decorative lighting project due to insufficient supplies of electricity.

Presently, urban management departments of people’s committees throughout the city have been installing flashing decorative lights on street lamps and trees.

Decorative lights are installed on Pyongyang streets at the end of every year. This year, however, the central government is emphasizing their importance even more than before; as a result, party officials are struggling to secure enough materials to complete the project.

Pyongyang party officials are even travelling to various regions, including Pyongsong, to obtain small light bulbs to use for the decorative lighting.

However, some Pyongyang residents watching the completion of lighting decorations on the streets are expressing their dissatisfaction about what they claim is a wasteful mobilization of manpower.

“Some people are saying that the electricity is pointlessly wasted on decorative lights for street lamps, trees, monuments, towers, and bridges. Instead, they say that we could power residential areas with more than two hours of electricity per day,” the source said. “The authorities are even installing decorative lights on the outer walls of apartments, but wouldn’t it be much better for light to come from home windows instead of forced light installations on building exteriors? The government is being counterproductive, completely unaware of what truly benefits the people.”

The source also said that the electricity supply situation in Pyongyang is so bad these days that only the areas where high-ranking officials live receive around two hours of electricity per day. Meanwhile, people in other districts have to rely on generators or batteries to power their lights and appliances.

Translated by Annie Eunjung Kim. Edited by Robert Lauler.

Please direct any comments or questions about this article to dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.

Read in Korean

Jong So Yong

Jong So Yong is one of Daily NK’s freelance reporters. Questions about her articles can be directed to dailynk@uni-media.net.

dailynk.com

15. Russian FM on Korean peninsula: ‘knots of conflict’ in 2024

Russian FM on Korean peninsula: ‘knots of conflict’ in 2024

An apparent warning comes amid escalating tensions between Moscow and Seoul.

By Lee Jeong-Ho for RFA

2023.12.28

Seoul, South Korea

rfa.org

Russia’s foreign minister issued an apparent warning to South Korea, following Seoul’s imposition of additional trade restrictions on Moscow intended to curb its expansionist ambitions in Ukraine.

In an interview with Russia’s state-run TASS news agency Thursday, Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov called the Korean peninsula, along with Africa and Afghanistan “knots of conflict” next year.

“It can be said that at a time when the West is holding onto elusive dominance, no one is safe from its geopolitical intrigues,” Lavrov said, adding that crises may take place unless the West accepts the “realities of a multipolar world.”

Lavrov’s comments come amid rapidly deteriorating ties between Seoul and Moscow, as South Korea decided to join the U.S.-led trade restrictions on Russia in response to its aggression against Ukraine.

Most recently, South Korea’s Ministry of Trade, Industry, and Energy on Tuesday announced an administrative revision, including the addition of 682 items to its list of products requiring special export permits, as part of a coordinated international effort to control exports to Russia.

With these additions, the total number of items subject to special export permits to Russia will increase to 1,159. The items added, which are deemed to have significant potential for military use, included construction heavy equipment, secondary batteries, machine tools, and aircraft components.

In response to Seoul’s new measures, Maria Zakharova, spokesperson for Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, on Wednesday called Seoul’s action an “unfriendly move in compliance with the United States’ demands.”

The spokesperson then warned about potential retaliatory measures, emphasizing that Russia has every right to respond.

Russia’s responses “may not be symmetrical, and we hope South Korea will not find themselves surprised by them later,” she said.

Following Russia’s warning of possible asymmetrical measures, a South Korean foreign ministry official told reporters during a back briefing in Seoul that Russia needed to play its part for the management of South Korea-Russia relations.

“Prior to announcing the export control measures against Russia, we had already explained the situation to the Russian side,” the official added.

The escalating diplomatic tensions between the two nations are already spilling over into the military realm.

On Dec. 14, four Russian military aircraft, along with two Chinese, entered South Korea’s Air Defense Identification Zone, or ADIZ, off its eastern coast without prior notification.

ADIZ is an arbitrary line established to enable the early identification and response to military aircraft approaching national airspace.

Typically, it is an international practice for military aircraft to submit their flight plans in advance and notify the respective country of their entry points when entering another nation’s ADIZ. However, Russia and China did not notify South Korea prior to their entry into the zone, according to the South’s defense ministry.

Edited by Taejun Kang and Elaine Chan.

rfa.org

More on the reports of the recent execution.

＜Interview＞ How was the public execution in Hyesan carried out?…In just four months, three executions have occurred in the city… “We were lined up at our places of work and marched to the execution site”

asiapress.org

An armed North Korean border guard patrolling the banks of the Yalu River. Taken by ASIAPRESS on the Chinese side of the border across from Sinuiju, North Pyongan Province, in mid-October 2023.

◆ Neighborhood watch units and workplaces ordered to participate

This year’s third public execution in Yanggang Province’s city of Hyesan was held on December 19. The person executed was a 23-year-old man who had committed a murder-robbery. A large number of workers and local people were mobilized to watch the execution. A reporting partner in Hyesan gave details about what happened that day. (KANG Ji-won / ISHIMARU Jiro)

＜Urgent Report＞ Public execution takes place again on December 19, the third in Hyesan this year…large numbers of people mobilized to witness event

2023.12.27

On December 19, a large number of people were mobilized to watch the execution of a young man in Hyesan, Yanggang Province. The man was killed by firi...

＜Inside N. Korea＞ The Kim Jong-un regime resumes public executions…Man executed in late September in Yanggang Province for stealing medicine

2023.10.10

On September 25, a man was executed by firing squad in Hyesan, Yanggang Province, in the northern region of North Korea. The execution was made public...

◆Thirteen people put on public trial: “It was the first time I’d seen anyone tremble that much”

―― Tell us about what happened that day. We heard that many people were mobilized to witness the public trial and execution.

In the morning, workplaces informed their employees that they must witness a public trial. Socialist Patriotic Youth League members were told to participate no matter what. After lunch, people lined up at their workplaces and headed to the Hyesan airport. All neighborhood watch units (inminban) were also ordered by district offices to participate in the public execution.

*Neighborhood watch units, or inminban, are North Korea's lowest administrative units and are typically made up of 20-30 households.

―― How many people were put on public trial?

There were a total of thirteen people. All of them had their hair shaved off. Some were trembling throughout the entire trial. I’d never seen anyone tremble like that before. Youth league members from each workplace were at the front of the lines during the trial. Before the trial started, an armed police unit went into a firing squad position, which made me think that everyone would be executed.

◆Executed man was a 23-year-old who had been discharged from the military due to malnutrition

―― One person was killed by the firing squad.

The person executed was a twenty-three-year-old man who had robbed and killed a woman transporting grains from a farming area to the city. When the woman screamed out, he beat her to death with a rock. The woman died there on the spot. An investigation began in September, so his execution was decided on quickly. They said his case was processed rapidly because he had committed murder.

The man had joined the military, but was sent home due to malnutrition. His parents had divorced, so he was living with his father. The man worked as a miner, but frequently skipped work, and he was repeatedly involved in various kinds of robberies.

―― They say he was executed for robbery and murder.

These days, people are scared to go out at night because of frequent robberies. At the trial, a police official emphasized that robberies and other anti-socialist behavior would not be forgiven and that the authorities would hand down severe legal punishments for such acts. The man was executed as a reminder to others.

The three public executions held this year in Hyesan were conducted at the high-elevation Hyesan airport. The airport is circled in red. The Yalu River can be seen at the top of the photo, and China is on the opposite side of the river. (Google Earth)

◆Broker given 10 years for aiding defectors

―― What were the other 12 people put on trial for?

Attempted murder, robbery, smuggling drugs, and helping defectors. Those accused of smuggling drugs were given eight years, while the rest were given 10 years. A woman who worked as a professional broker - and accused of helping defectors and smuggling - was given 10 years.

―― We heard many Hyesan residents were mobilized for the event.

There were many people who didn’t show up because of sickness. The authorities ordered an investigation into those who didn’t show up for the public trial. One person I know who skipped the trial due to sickness submitted a document showing his diagnosis and then paid off his neighborhood watch unit leader to seal the deal. An emergency study session aimed at increasing a law-abiding mentality among youth league members at each workplace was held on December 20.

―― This was the third public execution in Hyesan this year. What are your thoughts on this?

The society is a mess with everyone facing economic difficulties and frequent cases of robbery, murder, and fatal accidents, so I’m worried and scared now that the government is conducting so many executions…Everybody in my family is telling each other to be careful because if anyone breaks the law they could die for it.

◆ Eleven men and women executed in just four months

The December 19 execution is the third time this year that a public execution has been held in Hyesan. On August 30, seven men and two women were executed for selling a cow they slaughtered. On September 25, one man was executed by firing squad for siphoning off medicine. On December 20, Radio Free Asia (RFA) reported on the December 19 execution. RFA’s reporting had many similarities to the information ASIAPRESS was able to receive from its reporting partner.

It is rare for North Korea to conduct so many public executions in a single city over such a short span of time. A defector who used to work for the Ministry of State Security told ASIAPRESS:

“When I was in North Korea, I never heard of public executions occurring three times in the same city within a span of just four months. The goal is to strike fear into people’s hearts, but the Kim Jong-un regime seems to have judged that the society’s conditions are so bad that public executions must be conducted in order to prevent the worsening of public disorder.”

※ASIAPRESS communicates with reporting partners through Chinese cell phones smuggled into North Korea.

asiapress.org

17. Kim Jong Un encourages finding ways to create waves in S. Korea

I cannot emphasize the importance of the regime's political warfare strategy and its focus on subverting South Korea (and the ROK/US alliance as Ambassador Schaefer discusses in his VOA interview). This is what the United Front Department and the Cultural Engagement Bureau (225th Bureau) are charged with doing.

Subversion

The undermining of the power and authority of an established system or institution.
As in: "the ruthless subversion of democracy"
Ideological War – a choice between:
Shared ROK/US Values
Freedom and individual liberty, liberal democracy, free market economy, rule of law, and human rights
Kim family regime (KFR) “values”
Juche/Kimilsungism/now "KIMJONGUNISM," Socialist Workers Paradise, Songun, Songbun, Byungjin, and denial of human rights to sustain KFR power
nK engages in political warfare and active subversion of the ROK

Political Warfare: Political warfare is the use of political means to compel an opponent to do one's will, based on hostile intent. The term political describes the calculated interaction between a government and a target audience to include another state's government, military, and/or general population. Governments use a variety of techniques to coerce certain actions, thereby gaining relative advantage over an opponent. The techniques include propaganda and psychological operations (PSYOP), which service national and military objectives respectively. Propaganda has many aspects and a hostile and coercive political purpose. Psychological operations are for strategic and tactical military objectives and may be intended for hostile military and civilian populations. Smith, Paul A., On Political War (Washington: National Defense University Press, 1989), p. 3. https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a233501.pdf

Kim Jong Un encourages finding ways to create waves in S. Korea

donga.com

Posted December. 29, 2023 08:06,

Updated December. 29, 2023 08:06

Kim Jong Un encourages finding ways to create waves in S. Korea. December. 29, 2023 08:06. yea@donga.com.

"Find ways to make waves in the South early next year." According to the National Intelligence Service (NIS), North Korean leader Kim Jong Un recently issued such an instruction to his aides. The NIS reportedly confirmed this through multiple intelligence sources, including human intelligence and signal intelligence focused on North Korea.

The NIS has not ruled out the possibility of a seventh nuclear test, anticipating North Korean provocations to persist before the 2024 general elections in April. In particular, the North Korean military has initiated the rearmament of the Joint Security Area (JSA), reinstating guard posts with AK-47s and other rifles at the Panmunjom JSA. The South Korean military authorities are closely monitoring the potential for additional provocations in the frontline areas.

The National Intelligence Service issued a one-and-a-half-page press release on the same day, saying, “North Korea is likely to launch a military provocation early next year, ahead of our major political events.” North Korea may perceive the period leading up to South Korea's upcoming general elections and the U.S. presidential election in November as a 'volatile state,' potentially leading to provocations against South Korea.

It is uncommon for the South Korean intelligence agency to disclose highly classified intelligence to the media. According to a government source, this disclosure serves as a warning message to inform the North Korean leadership that our authorities are aware of the internal dynamics of North Korea, aiming to dissuade them from engaging in serious provocations. The disclosure is also intended to heighten awareness of the North Korean threat. This comes as the NIS's anti-communism investigation function is set to transfer to the police on January 1 next year, raising concerns about potential gaps in the investigation.

South Korea and the United States believe military tensions have peaked in the Joint Security Area (JSA) and other forward areas. They are closely monitoring developments, including potential North Korean military actions. North Korean troops have been seen carrying AK-47s and other rifles in the JSA, restoring guard posts and escalating tensions. North Korea declared the termination of the September 19 Pyongyang Declaration on Nov. 23 under the Ministry of Defense's name. Since then, North Korean soldiers in the JSA have been armed with handguns. This was followed by a 'complete rearmament' process to revert the JSA, demilitarized under the 2018 agreement, to its pre-agreement status.

한국어

donga.com

18. N. Korean human rights bill unlikely to pass Congress this year again

Come on Congress. Contribute to a human rights upfront approach. Listen to Ambassador Shaefer's interview. We must focus on human rights.

N. Korean human rights bill unlikely to pass Congress this year again

The Korea Times · December 29, 2023

The U.S. Capitol building, during a snow storm on Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S., is seen in this January 3, 2022 file photo. Reuters-Yonhap

A U.S. bill to reauthorize the expired North Korean Human Rights Act appears unlikely to pass Congress this year again, with the House of Representatives adjourning for a holiday recess.

According to Congress' website on Thursday, the bill to extend the 2004 act, aimed at promoting human rights in the reclusive country, remains pending, marking 15 months of absence since the law expired in September last year.

First adopted in 2004, the legislation is to be updated and reauthorized periodically. It was extended in 2008, 2012 and 2018 with the last extension designed to be valid through Sept. 30 last year.

Senators Marco Rubio and Tim Kaine have introduced the latest reauthorization act while House Reps. Young Kim and Ami Bera introduced a similar bill.

The pending bill calls for the promotion of human rights and humanitarian assistance for North Korean people and the increase in the flow of information not controlled by the regime in Pyongyang among other activities. (Yonhap)

The Korea Times · December 29, 2023

De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

Phone: 202-573-8647

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com

De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com

If you do not read anything else in the 2017 National Security Strategy read this on page 14:

"A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation."

Access NSS HERE

Company Name | Website

[Interview: Schaeffer, former German Ambassador to Pyongyang] “The goal of the North Korean leadership is to ‘weaken U.S.-ROK relations’… “I witnessed a conflict over the route.”

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＜Interview＞ How was the public execution in Hyesan carried out?…In just four months, three executions have occurred in the city… “We were lined up at our places of work and marched to the execution site”

◆ Neighborhood watch units and workplaces ordered to participate

◆Thirteen people put on public trial: “It was the first time I’d seen anyone tremble that much”

◆Executed man was a 23-year-old who had been discharged from the military due to malnutrition

◆Broker given 10 years for aiding defectors

◆ Eleven men and women executed in just four months

Kim Jong Un encourages finding ways to create waves in S. Korea

N. Korean human rights bill unlikely to pass Congress this year again

Join us Shashank MattooThe development reflects a renewed focus on bilateral relations between India and South Korea, with Seoul seen expanding its strategic interests beyond East Asia.

＜Interview＞ How was the public execution in Hyesan carried out?…In just four months, three executions have occurred in the city… “We were lined up at our places of work and marched to the execution site”