Informal Institute for National Security Thinkers and Practitioners

Quotes of the Day:

"An arrogant person considers himself perfect. This is the chief harm of arrogance. It interferes with a person's main task in life - becoming a better person."
- Leo Tolstoy

"When something is important enough, you do it even if the odds are not in your favor."
- Elon Musk

"Holding on to anger is like grasping a hot coal with the intent of throwing it at someone else; you are the one who gets burned."
- Buddha


1. RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, APRIL 30 (PUTIN'S WAR)
2. Vladimir Putin 'will undergo cancer operation in the near future'
3. Western artillery surging into Ukraine will reshape war with Russia
4. How Putin’s brutal war in Ukraine pushed Finland toward NATO
5. Russia’s push into eastern Ukraine comes amid fears of a protracted war
6. Forgiveness, anger and unending grief as families face ISIS kidnappers
7. Depleted Russian units that failed to take Kyiv are merging, says MoD
8. Russia’s Sanctioned Superyachts: New Platforms For Indo-Pacific Diplomacy
9. U.S. Troops Train Ukrainians in Germany
10. Rape has reportedly become a weapon in Ukraine. Finding justice may be difficult
11. Former US Marine colonel training soldiers in Ukraine says 'Russians are worse than ISIS'
12. Ukraine Becomes a Wake-Up Call in Faraway Japan
13. Japanese PM Seeks To Set The Global Agenda
14.  Is American Democracy Built to Last?
15. The Army Wants to Change How It Manages Cyber Risk
16. Putin’s War on Truth Warps Reality for All of Us
17. Ukrainian Special Forces Kill With Extreme Prejudice Behind Enemy Lines
18. The Three Lifelines of a Planner
19. How the ‘jack-in-the-box’ flaw dooms some Russian tanks
20. Use of Army’s prepositioned ‘afloat’ equipment is expected to grow in the Pacific
21. Nancy Pelosi leads U.S. delegation to Kyiv and meets with Ukraine's president
22. Nancy Pelosi Visits Ukraine’s President Zelensky in Kyiv
23. Japan to revisit its National Defense Program as threats from China, Russia, N Korea soars
24. Ukraine war: Resistance to Russian rouble in Kherson
25. Museum's ancient gold among thousands of artifacts looted by Russia, Ukrainian officials say







1. RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, APRIL 30 (PUTIN'S WAR)

RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, APRIL 30
Apr 30, 2022 - Press ISW

Mason Clark, Karolina Hird, and George Barros
April 30, 5:15pm ET
Further Russian reinforcements to the Izyum axis are unlikely to enable stalled Russian forces to achieve substantial advances. Elements of unspecified Eastern Military District units and several air-defense assets are reportedly deploying from Belgorod to the Izyum front to support likely degraded Russian units attempting to advance south of the city. These forces are unlikely to enable Russian forces to break the current deadlock, as Russian attacks remain confined to two major highways (toward Slovyansk and Barvinkove) and cannot leverage greater numbers. Several successful Ukrainian counterattacks out of Kharkiv city in the last 72 hours have additionally recaptured a ring of suburbs north and east of the city and may additionally force Russian forces to redeploy units intended for the Izyum axis to hold these positions. Russian forces appear increasingly unlikely to achieve any major advances in eastern Ukraine, and Ukrainian forces may be able to conduct wider counterattacks in the coming days.
Key Takeaways
  • A Ukrainian counteroffensive out of Kharkiv City will likely alleviate pressure on parts of the city that have suffered the most from Russian shelling and may force Russian troops from Izyum to re-deploy northward to support forces maintaining the partial encirclement of Kharkiv.
  • Additional Russian forces are deploying to the Izyum front but are unlikely to enable any major advances.
  • Russian troops did not make any confirmed advances to the southwest or southeast of Izyum or to the west of the Donetsk-Luhansk frontline.
  • Russian forces in Kherson are pausing major offensive operations to improve their tactical positions and regroup to prepare for a renewed offensive to capture the administrative borders of Kherson.
  • Russian occupation forces in Mariupol announced plans to consolidate their control over the city and intend to return Ukrainian citizens forcibly deported into Russia at some point in the future.

We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because those activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas. We utterly condemn these Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict, Geneva Conventions, and humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.
ISW has updated its assessment of the four primary efforts Russian forces are engaged in at this time:
  • Main effort—Eastern Ukraine (comprised of two subordinate supporting efforts);
  • Supporting effort 1—Kharkiv and Izyum;
  • Supporting effort 2—Southern axis;
  • Supporting effort 3—Sumy and northeastern Ukraine.
Main effort—Eastern Ukraine
Subordinate Main Effort—Mariupol (Russian objective: Capture Mariupol and reduce the Ukrainian defenders)
Russian forces remaining in Mariupol, including elements of the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade, continued to block Ukrainian troops in the Azovstal Steel Plant and carried out airstrikes on April 30.[1] Occupying Russian forces are intensifying occupation measures through Mariupol. Advisor to the Mayor of Mariupol Petro Andryushchenko stated that abandoned homes in the Staryi Krym region of Mariupol are being resettled under DNR-issued permits and that the Kremlin plans to return Mariupol residents who were previously forcibly deported to Russia once Russian forces consolidate control of the city.[2] Head of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) Denis Pushilin announced the “Great Construction” of Mariupol on April 30.[3] Pushilin claimed that DNR forces, with support from the Kremlin, will rebuild the infrastructure of Mariupol as soon as the Ukrainian positions in Azovstal are “resolved.” Russian and DNR troops will likely advance reconstruction and resettlement operations to further consolidate administrative control of Mariupol and boost the Kremlin’s claim to have fully captured the city.

Subordinate Main Effort—Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)
Russian forces continued unsuccessful attacks alongside artillery fire and airstrikes on the entire Donetsk-Luhansk frontline and did not make any confirmed advances on April 30.[4] The Ukrainian General Staff stated that Russian forces aim to capture Rubizhne and Popasna and use these towns as springboards for further advances west toward Lyman and Slovyansk.[5] Russian forces around Izyum are attempting to capture these towns from the north to merge Russian advances in eastern Ukraine, but Ukrainian forces are successfully preventing Russian forces from making major gains on either axis.

Supporting Effort #1—Kharkiv and Izyum: (Russian objective: Advance southeast to support Russian operations in Luhansk Oblast; defend ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to the Izyum axis)
Russian forces continued to attack southeast and southwest from Izyum but did not secure any confirmed advances in these directions on April 30.[6] The Ukrainian General Staff stated that elements of the 1st Guards Tank Army, 20th Combined Arms Army, 35th Combined Arms Army, 68th Army Corps, and likely 2 battalion tactical groups (BTGs) of the 76th Airborne Division are trying to advance southwest to Barvinkove and southeast to Slovyansk.[7] The Ukrainian General Staff additionally reported that Russian forces are deploying unspecified elements of the Eastern Military District to the Izyum area to support these advances.[8] The Ukrainian General Staff additionally indicated that additional Russian air-defense forces are deploying to cover Russian troops in the Izyum area.[9] A Pro-Russian military source claimed that Russian troops encircled approximately 600 Ukrainian troops in Yaremivka, about 25 kilometers southeast of Izyum on the road to Slovyansk, although ISW cannot independently confirm this report.[10] Ukrainian sources claimed an artillery strike on a Russian command post near Izyum killed Russian Major General Alexei Simonov on April 30, although ISW cannot confirm preliminary reporting at this time.[11]
Ukrainian forces continued counterattacks against several positions along an arc spanning from the north to the east of Kharkiv City and recaptured Verkhnya Rohanka, Ruska Lozova, Slobidske, and Prelesne.[12] Ukrainian troops have recaptured a ring of suburbs around the east of Kharkiv City in the past 72 hours that may allow them to alleviate pressure on residential areas of the city, such as Saltivka, that have been targeted by intensive Russian shelling.[13] Ukrainian counterattacks may additionally force Russian forces to redeploy units intended to support the Izyum axis. Russian forces continued to bombard Kharkiv City with air and artillery strikes throughout April 30.[14]

Supporting Effort #2—Southern Axis (Objective: Defend Kherson against Ukrainian counterattacks)
Russian forces continued to prioritize improving their tactical positions and shelling Ukrainian positions on the Southern Axis but did not make any confirmed advances on April 30.[15] The Ukrainian General Staff notably stated that elements of the 8th and 49th Combined Arms Army, 22nd Army Corps, Black Sea Fleet, and Airborne forces are engaging in combat operations to improve their tactical positions (indicating local attacks to capture key terrain, rather than major offensive operations) and are regrouping and replenishing supplies in preparation for a renewed push to reach the administrative borders of Kherson Oblast.[16] Russian forces shelled several points in Zaporizhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Mykolaiv Oblasts.[17] The Ukrainian General Staff stated that Russian forces continue to disseminate disinformation about the threat of Ukrainian troops to the population of Transnistria.[18]


Supporting Effort #3—Sumy and Northeastern Ukraine: (Russian objective: Withdraw combat power in good order for redeployment to eastern Ukraine)
There were no significant activities on this axis in the past 24 hours.
Immediate items to watch
  • Russian forces attacking southeast from Izyum, west from Kreminna and Popasna, and north from Donetsk City will likely make steady but tactical gains against Ukrainian defenders.
  • Russian forces will likely attempt to starve out the remaining defenders of the Azovstal Steel Plant in Mariupol and will not allow trapped civilians to evacuate but may conduct costly assaults on remaining Ukrainian defenders to claim a propaganda victory.
  • Russian forces are likely preparing to conduct renewed offensive operations to capture the entirety of Kherson Oblast in the coming days.
  • Russia may continue false-flag attacks in and around Transnistria or might move to generate a more serious crisis in Transnistria and Moldova more generally.
[2] https://t dot me/andriyshTime/577
[3] https://t dot me/andriyshTime/574; https://www.donetsk.kp dot ru/daily/27387/4580930/?from=tg
[12] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/306191908360561; https://gur.gov dot ua/content/spetspryznachentsi-hur-mo-ukrainy-vidnovyly-kontrol-nad-naselenym-punktom-ruska-lozova-na-kharkivshchyni.html
[13] https://t dot me/synegubov/3028
[17] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/306191908360561; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/305803498399402l; https://t dot me/dnipropetrovskaODA/765; https://t dot me/dnipropetrovskaODA/784; https://t dot me/dnipropetrovskaODA/779; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/306191908360561

2. Vladimir Putin 'will undergo cancer operation in the near future'

I still think we need more verification. But wouldn't it be great if Petrushev ordered the withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukraine? But based on his comments I do not think that is likely.



Vladimir Putin 'will undergo cancer operation in the near future' and is set to 'hand over power to hardline ex KGB chief while he is incapacitated', insider claims
  • Russian leader set for surgery, which officials insist is 'of no particular urgency'
  • Power over Ukraine war will transfer to ally and Security Council chief Patrushev
  • Putin has cancer, Parkinson's and 'schizophrenic symptoms': Telegram channel
  • Patrushev claimed NATO support for Kyiv will cause 'disintegration of Ukraine'
  • News comes as Putin expected to launch all-out assault and mobilise nation
PUBLISHED: 10:21 EDT, 30 April 2022 | UPDATED: 10:59 EDT, 30 April 2022
Daily Mail · by Will Stewart And Adam Solomons For Mailonline · April 30, 2022
Vladimir Putin may be forced to give up control of the war in Ukraine for days as he is set for cancer surgery, a 'Kremlin insider' has claimed.
The Russian dictator will reportedly nominate hardline Security Council head and ex-FSB chief Nikolai Patrushev to take control of the invasion while he is under the knife.
Shadowy Patrushev, 70, is seen as a key architect of the war strategy so far - and the man who convinced Putin that Kyiv is awash with neo-Nazis.
The extraordinary claims appeared on popular Telegram channel General SVR, which says its source is a well-placed figure in the Kremlin.

Putin, pictured last week, reportedly has Parkinson's, cancer and schizophrenic symptoms
General SVR reported that Putin has abdominal cancer and Parkinson's 18 months ago.

Hardliner Nikolai Patrushev will reportedly take control of the war in Ukraine while Putin is under the knife to treat abdominal cancer
He has reportedly delayed surgery, which will now not take place before the Victory Day commemoration of Russia's World War Two victory in Red Square on May 9.
The news comes amid speculation Putin will launch an all-out war across Ukraine and order mass mobilisation of military-age men, a considerable political risk.
The surgery had been scheduled for the second half of April but was delayed, SVR claimed.
'Putin was recommended to undergo surgery, the date of which is being discussed and agreed,' the outlet stated.
'There seems to be no particular urgency, but it cannot be delayed either.'

Ex-FSB chief Patrushev (left) is a fearsome Kremlin official and war advocate (2015 image)
It went on: 'The Russian President Vladimir Putin has oncology, and the latest problems identified during [his latest] examination are associated with this disease.'
He also suffers from 'Parkinson's disease and schizoaffective disorder', which carries symptoms of schizophrenia including hallucinations and mania.
The Kremlin has always strongly denied Putin has medical problems and portrays he is in robust health, even as he has been mysteriously absent in recent years.
In a video detailing the General SVR claims, the outlet's source - supposedly an anonymous former high-ranking Kremlin military figure - said: 'Putin has discussed that he will be undergoing medical procedures.

Patrushev and Putin are both ex-FSB and have known each other for many years (2008 image)
'Doctors insist that he needs an operation, but the date has not yet been determined.'
The source went on: 'I don't know for exactly how long [he will be incapacitated after the surgery]…
'I think it'll be for a short time.'
Putin was 'unlikely to agree to transfer power' but was ready to put in place a 'charge d'affaires' to control Russia and the war effort.
They continued: 'So, while Putin has the operation and comes to his senses…likely two or three days…the actual control of the country passes only to [Nikolai] Patrushev.'
Such a move would be surprising since under the constitution, power should pass solely to the prime minister, Mikhail Mishustin.



Bloated Putin was seen gripping a table while slouching in his chair during a televised meeting with his defence minister Sergei Shoigu. He has been unable to shake cancer rumours
The 56-year-old is a low-profile technocrat without known military or secret service links.
The outlet said the choice of spymaster Patrushev - which came after a two-hour 'heart to heart' with Putin - was the 'worst option'.
'What if, all of a sudden, Putin manifests particularly severe health problems?
'It was possible to contain it for some time, but now the course of the disease is progressing.
'I do not want to voice any forecasts now, so as not to reassure you once again, because in this situation you should not be very hopeful.'
In another post, the outlet said: 'We know that Putin made it clear to Patrushev that he considers him almost the only truly trusted person and friend in the system of power.
'Further, the president promised that in case of a sharp deterioration of his (Putin's) health, the actual management of the country would be transferred, temporarily, to Patrushev.'
The latest post on the suspected medical problems said: 'Putin's doctors insist on the need for him to undergo surgery in the near future.
'And although Putin did not give his consent in principle and the date of the operation was not agreed, he hurried to explain himself and get Patrushev's reaction and agreement.'
Earlier it claimed Putin had been 'prescribed new drugs' from the West and given heavier doses.
'According to our information, one of the new medicines recommended by doctors after oral administration caused side effects in Putin in the form of severe dizziness and weakness,' said a post earlier this month.
'The doctor who recommended this medicine has been removed from the treatment process and is being tested.
'The drug itself, which was imported from one unfriendly state, is also being tested.'
Recent investigative reports by exiled Russian journalists have suggested Putin has thyroid cancer, and indicated he is constantly surrounded by a team of top doctors.
Attention has focused recently on his behaviour to control a seeming involuntary shake in his hand - renewing speculation of Parkinson's first highlighted in 2020 by General SVR.
At a meeting with Defence minister Sergei Shoigu, he was seen firmly gripping a desk.
The channel said: 'Many drew attention to the sickly appearance of the president, his puffy, swollen face and hands tightly clasped around the table top.
'There is nothing surprising here.
'Putin's health has recently deteriorated, we have already written about this, and the president's unhealthy appearance only confirms this.
'For more than a month, the attending physicians have not been able to convince Putin to change the drugs that suppress the symptoms of Parkinson's disease, since the old ones no longer give the desired effect, and the president is simply afraid to experiment with new ones.
'Clinging to the table with his hands is a way to hide a small but quite noticeable tremor.'
The channel has been linked to Professor Valery Solovey, 61, who in February, was held for a seven hour interrogation apparently possibly linked to the regular claims about Putin's supposed medical and mental condition .
Solovoy was a professor at Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO) - attended by future top diplomats and spies.
Daily Mail · by Will Stewart And Adam Solomons For Mailonline · April 30, 2022


3. Western artillery surging into Ukraine will reshape war with Russia

Graphics and photos at the link: 

Western artillery surging into Ukraine will reshape war with Russia

Today at 6:00 a.m. EDT|Updated today at 4:19 p.m. EDT

The Western artillery flooding into Ukraine will alter the war with Russia, setting off a bloody battle of wits backed by long-range weapons and forcing both sides to grow more nimble if they hope to avoid significant fatalities as fighting intensifies in the east, U.S. officials and military analysts predict.
The expanded artillery battle follows Russia’s failed effort to rapidly seize Ukraine’s major population centers, including the capital, Kyiv. It comes as the government of President Volodymyr Zelensky and his Western benefactors brace for what is expected to be a grinding campaign in the Donbas region. The conflict there is expected to showcase the long-range cannons that are a centerpiece of Russia’s arsenal, weaponry already used to devastating effect in places such as Mariupol, a southern port city that has been pulverized by unrelenting bombardment.
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, speaking alongside his Canadian counterpart at the Pentagon on Thursday, said long-range artillery will prove “decisive” in the next phase of the war. The Biden administration, which along with Canada is training small numbers of Ukrainian troops how to operate the dozens of 155 mm howitzers that both countries have pledged to provide, is expected to approve the transfer of even more artillery to Ukraine in the coming days, Austin said.
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Biden approves additional $800 million in security assistance for Ukraine
President Biden said he told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on April 13 that he is authorizing $800 million more in security assistance. (Video: Reuters)
The U.S. and Canadian howitzers bound for Ukraine are towed on trailers, while those pledged by France — systems known as self-propelled Caesar howitzers — fire the same 155 mm explosive rounds, but from the back of a truck chassis.
The United States alone already has promised Zelensky nearly 190,000 artillery rounds, plus 90 howitzers to fire them. As of Thursday, more than half had arrived in Ukraine, said a senior U.S. defense official who, like some others, spoke on the condition of anonymity under ground rules set by the administration.
A new $33 billion request to Congress for additional Ukraine aid includes proposed funding for “longer-range artillery of a heavier caliber,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken told lawmakers on Capitol Hill, though he stopped short of identifying which specific systems are under consideration. Other allies, such as Britain and Sweden, also could send artillery, analysts said.
To date, Russia and Ukraine have traded fire using some of the same systems, including the powerful 300 mm Smerch multiple-launch rocket system, which can shoot rounds some 55 miles, and aging 122 mm howitzers first fielded in the 1960s. The introduction of various Western artillery pieces is expected to accelerate a tactical shift by both sides to employ what is known as counter-battery fire, in which military forces seek out their enemy’s artillery, determine its location and attack, analysts said.
“You’re trying to find, fix and finish,” said George Flynn, a retired three-star Marine general and former artillery officer. “You want to find the enemy howitzers. You want to fix their position. And then you want to finish them off. That’s the essence of targeting.”
After an artillery unit attacks an adversary, it needs to keep moving, Flynn said. “Once you get into a counter-battery fight, it’s shoot and scoot,” he added. “You don’t stick around and let yourself get targeted.”
Russian and Ukrainian artillery ranges
Examples of some of the artillery
and its approximate maximum range
2.2 miles
TOS-1 multiple
rocket launcher
13.6 miles
D-30 towed
howitzer
18 miles
2S19 self-propelled
howitzer
43.5 miles
Smerch multiple-
launch system
Western artillery ranges
Examples of the artillery NATO countries are sending Ukraine
and its approximate maximum range
18.6 miles
M198 towed
howitzer
24.9 miles
M777 towed
howitzer
28.6 miles
Caesar self-propelled
howitzer
The difference between towed
and self-propelled howitzers
Towed howitzer
Russian D-30 and American M777 and M198
need to be towed by a truck.
M777 can elevate the cannon from 0° to 71.7°
35 ft 1 in
Self-propelled howitzer
The French Caesar is
a truck with a
howitzer on it.
Ukraine is asking for more self-propelled
howitzers, like the American M109 Paladin,
less vulnerable to Russian counter-battery fire.
It can also elevate the cannon from -4° to 72°
40 ft 4 in
22 ft 4 in
Sources: Federation of American Scientists;
oe.tradoc.army.mil; GlobalSecurity.org and Post reporting
ARTUR GALOCHA/THE WASHINGTON POST
Ukraine’s ability to target Russian artillery units is especially important, analysts say, because of the Kremlin’s demonstrated willingness to lob round after round into cities and towns, destroying civilian homes and infrastructure. “Just the existence” of more Ukrainian artillery units performing counter-battery fire will degrade Russia’s ability to “sit there, pile up ammo and go to town,” said Scott Boston, a former U.S. Army field artillery officer who studies the Russian military for the Rand Corp.
“The problem” that Ukraine and its Western allies would “like to impose on the Russians,” he said, “is for them to never have confidence that a headquarters, or a key ammunition dump, or an important cluster of firing platforms, can ever be stationary for very long.”
The Pentagon on Friday assessed that Russia has not been as effective as it would like at using long-range artillery. A senior defense official noted that, as the West continues to send so much artillery to Ukraine, “this could become a bit of a gun battle.”
Artillery units often disguise themselves with camouflage or other forms of cover, and it can require a mixture of intelligence, unmanned aircraft and radar to spot them. The West is providing Ukraine with drones and counter-battery radar to do just that.
What difference could artillery make?
The greater the range of artillery, the more adversaries must consider how to position themselves on the battlefield.
With artillery with a range of 30 miles, these would be the ranges from the border and controlled areas for the Russian and Ukranian forces
Chernihiv
RUSSIA
Sumy
Kyiv
Russian-held
areas
Kharkiv
Izyum
UKRAINE
Separatist-
controlled
area
Dnipro
Mariupol
Mykolaiv
Kherson
Sea of
Azov
Odessa
Crimea
Annexed
by Russia
in 2014
Black
Sea
100 MILES
Control areas as of April 27
Sources: Institute for the Study of War, AEI’s Critical Threats Project, Post reporting
Zelensky also has requested some form of multiple-launch rocket artillery, such as the highly accurate M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, known as HIMARS, that is used by the U.S. Army and Marine Corps. Such weapons launch rounds quickly, which is useful in firing on enemy artillery forces before they reposition, said Mark Cancian, a retired Marine Corps colonel who studies the war for the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
Cancian, a former artillery officer, said that there “will be a lot of pressure to provide” HIMARS in the coming days and that he would not be surprised to see the United States begin supplying it soon. Another type of multiple-launch rocket system, such as the M270 operated by the U.S. Army, also could be sent, he surmised. The HIMARS is newer and moves about the battlefield more freely, while the M270 carries more rockets.
“I think there will be a lot of pressure to provide that, and since we seem to be announcing an aid package a week, I wouldn’t be surprised to see HIMARS next week or the week after,” Cancian said.
Ukrainian officials also have sought more self-propelled howitzers rather than towed weapons such as the M777. A Ukrainian official, speaking on the condition of anonymity because the issue is sensitive, said that while it appears easier to perform maintenance on and find parts for the M777 howitzer, it is more vulnerable to Russian counter-battery fire than self-propelled howitzers, like the Army’s M109 Paladin.
Cancian said he would be watching to see whether advanced, highly accurate 155 mm Excalibur rounds make it to Ukraine. The weapons are guided by GPS and designed to fly up to 25 miles, according to Raytheon, the Excalibur’s manufacturer. The Pentagon has declined to specify what types of artillery rounds are being sent.
The shipping of Western artillery into Ukraine is important partly because there are few places where Ukraine can find replacement rounds for its Soviet-era systems, said Sam Cranny-Evans, an analyst at the Royal United Services Institute in London. Poland, Bulgaria and a few other NATO allies produce them, but many more countries produce ammunition for Western weapons.
While the West has promised tens of thousands of artillery rounds to Ukraine, they may be depleted quickly, Cranny-Evans said, requiring defense contractors to ramp up production. Russia also has a significant advantage in the number of artillery pieces it possesses, and it’s unclear how many of Ukraine’s legacy systems are still operational or how much ammunition is available for them, he added.
Russian forces are using artillery to extricate themselves from Ukrainian ambushes and inflict fatalities as well as to avoid having to go “into the teeth of these very high-end Western weapons,” including Javelin and NLAW anti-armor missiles, that already have destroyed some Russian units, Cranny-Evans said.
“They’re just going to sit back and let their long-range assets do the work because they don’t have the manpower to waste,” he said.
Canadian Defense Minister Anita Anand said in an interview that there is a role for collaboration among Western countries in providing weapons to Ukraine that are “consistent and interchangeable,” allowing Ukraine to learn the systems and maintain them when they are damaged.
“The M777s are a perfect example of the way in which allied countries with that capability can band together and respond to a desperate need that Ukraine has,” she said. “And that’s a model that we’ll continue to utilize going forward.”
The use of artillery and other weapons has been complementary in Ukraine and will continue to be, Boston said.
“If you do a good job of bottling someone up, then they’re going to be way more vulnerable to artillery than if they were dispersed and in cover,” he said. “If the Russians don’t have confidence that they can disperse because they’re going to get picked off by Javelin teams, then they might be bunching for security against that — and then be more vulnerable against artillery.”
Karen DeYoung in Washington, David L. Stern in Mukachevo, Ukraine, and Alex Horton in Kyiv contributed to this report.

4. How Putin’s brutal war in Ukraine pushed Finland toward NATO
Beware of blowback and second and third order effects.

How Putin’s brutal war in Ukraine pushed Finland toward NATO
The Washington Post · by Emily RauhalaToday at 7:48 a.m. EDTBy Emily RauhalaToday at 7:48 a.m. EDT · April 30, 2022
NIIRALA, Finland — Two Finnish border guards glide through a narrow cut in a tall pine forest, their skis tracking a line along a still-frozen frontier.
Today the line marks the quiet but closely watched boundary between Russia and Finland. It may soon mark the border between Russia and the most powerful military alliance in the world.
Among the justifications for his unprovoked attack on Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin cited the possibility of NATO expansion. Now the brutal war looks poised to bring more of the alliance to his door.
Any day now, Finland and Sweden — European Union countries that remain militarily nonaligned — are expected to apply to join the 30-member alliance. NATO and U.S. officials have said they would be welcomed.
This historic shift is an early sign of how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is upending Europe’s post-Cold War security architecture and remaking world maps in ways that may be felt for decades.
Finland’s accession would double NATO’s land border with Russia. The two countries would bring the full force of the alliance to the far north and bolster a beefed-up presence around the Baltic Sea.
NATO, the United States and the E.U. are now planning for the long-term isolation of Russia, marking the return of Cold War-style containment after years of coexistence and cooperation.
“This is one of those moments in European history,” said Alexander Stubb, former prime minister of Finland. “What we are looking at is the semi-permanent division of Europe into two.”
On one side, he said, you have an aggressive, authoritarian Russia and its cobelligerent, Belarus. On the other side, you have more than 30 democracies more or less united by a common foe.
“It will all be one military-strategic arena now, especially if you look from the Russian side,” said Anna Wieslander, director for Northern Europe at the Atlantic Council.
“Putin miscalculated,” she said. “This is not what he foresaw.”
In some ways, this sea change in European security feels least surprising in Finland, the country whose anger and alarm at Putin’s actions precipitated the shift.
In the eight decades since Finnish soldiers on skis helped beat back Soviet invaders, the country joined the E.U. in 1995 and became a close NATO partner, while still trying to engage and understand Russia. But it has never taken its eyes off the border.
Tomi Timonen, deputy chief of the border guard station at Niirala, said those who live and work in the area are outraged, but not surprised, by Putin’s war. People here know Russia, he said. “Like all Finnish people, we are on our toes.”
***
Scenes from Ukraine stir painful memories for Finland.
In the 1939-1940 Winter War, the country fought off the Soviets but suffered mightily, losing people and territory. Ever since, said Henri Vanhanen, a foreign policy expert and adviser to the center-right National Coalition Party, the country has been intensely focused on defense. “It comes from our collective memory,” he said.
The capital, Helsinki, started building civil defense shelters in the 1940s. One 1960s-era facility designed to protect as many as 9,000 people from shelling and chemical attacks serves, for now, as a parking lot. The city also has shelters that are used as a sports center, a pool and an ice rink — but can be ready for emergency use in 72 hours.
Tomi Rask, a preparedness specialist with Helsinki’s Rescue Department, said footage of the devastating shelling in Ukraine, including people taking cover in makeshift shelters, has renewed interest in civil defense.
The focus on readiness extends to the military. Finland maintains a system of mandatory conscription for men and voluntary conscription for women. The country can muster a wartime force of 280,000 troops, as well as about 900,000 reservists.
“We never dismantled the military after the Cold War; we invested in it,” said Kai Sauer, Finland’s undersecretary of state for foreign and security policy.
“There is a very high willingness to defend the country,” he said. “It might sound old-fashioned, but it is a consequence of our history and geographic position.”
NATO officials and defense analysts described Finnish forces as robust and relatively well-funded. Just before the invasion of Ukraine, Finland finalized the purchase of 64 F-35 fighters from U.S. defense giant Lockheed Martin.
On the island of Santahamina, within Helsinki, the army trains troops in urban warfare, running gangly conscripts through live-fire drills. Watching them on a sunny April afternoon was Ari Helenius, a battalion commander who served alongside NATO forces in Kosovo.
Finnish soldiers have been working with NATO since the 1990s. Both Finland and Sweden contributed to missions in the Balkans, Afghanistan and Iraq. Both forces are highly interoperable with NATO forces.
The country stepped up cooperation with NATO after Russia annexed Crimea, but officially, Finland remained militarily nonaligned. Finnish people felt safer outside the alliance.
Putin’s full-scale attack on Ukraine changed that virtually overnight. A majority of Finnish people now say they would be safer within NATO.
“If Putin is able to slaughter his Slavic brothers, sisters and cousins in Ukraine, there’s nothing stopping him from doing that in Finland, as well,” said Stubb, the former prime minister.
Helenius said the situation in Ukraine is on the minds of young conscripts. “As professional soldiers, it is our job to tell them not to be worried,” he said.
Ukraine is also on the mind of the general public. Meri Leppänen, public information officer for the Guard Jaeger Regiment, which is based on the island, said the war has reminded the country “why we do what we do.”
Firing rifles and antitank weapons so close to the city used to yield noise complaints, she said. Since Feb. 24, nobody has called them to grouch about loud military training.
Jaakko Toropainen, a retired truck driver, said he used to be neutral on NATO membership, but the invasion changed his thinking.
His uncle was killed in the Winter War, and the country lost a lot, he said. Finland needs “all the help it can get” to stop that from happening again.
For now, he said, “I’m just hoping the other side doesn’t do anything stupid.”
***
At the Vaalimaa border crossing, a couple of hours outside Helsinki, the change in Finland’s relationship with Russia can already be seen.
Not long ago, the checkpoint was packed with transport trucks, travelers and cross-border shoppers headed to outlet malls — symbols of how Europe remained knitted to Russia despite the invasion of Georgia, the annexation of Crimea and everything else.
Thanks to the pandemic and the war, a crossing built for thousands now sees a few hundred people a day, according to Capt. Jussi Pekkala, chief of the border crossing point. Some Russians with E.U.-approved vaccines still visit, and the occasional transport truck lumbers by, but parking lots sit empty and the Zsar Outlet Village looks quiet. The guards greet E.U. citizens leaving Russia and Ukrainians fleeing war.
It seems unlikely that traffic will bounce back. Although NATO membership has no bearing on border policy, most people seem to accept that joining NATO would likely usher in a new era of division between the West and Russia reminiscent, in some ways, of the Cold War.
One lingering question is whether Finland and Sweden will pursue NATO membership in parallel. Sweden has thus far moved less quickly than Finland, but most analysts say they will find a way to coordinate. The thinking, Wieslander said, is that if Russia is going to retaliate, “it is better if it happens once.”
Moscow has warned of unspecified “consequences” and said it will deploy nuclear weapons in the Baltic region if NATO grows. But European officials and analysts have for the most part played down those threats, noting that Russia already has nuclear weapons within range.
Janne Kuusela, defense policy director at the Finnish Ministry of Defense, said he did not expect Russian planners to make major changes to the country’s posture.
“It would not really be a huge change for Russian military calculus,” he said. Rather, the NATO move “would be a blow for their self-esteem, for their dignity, because they have been saying for a long time that they don’t want this to happen.”
Sauer, the undersecretary of state, said Finland is watching for hybrid or clandestine attacks. “All I can say is, we are prepared,” he said.
He sees the standoff lasting. “Our foreign policy and security challenge is to have functional coexistence with Russia, and we have seriously tried to find ways to coexist and cooperate,” he said.
“Because of the Russian aggression, the situation has changed,” he continued. “It will take time to find a way out.”
The Washington Post · by Emily RauhalaToday at 7:48 a.m. EDTBy Emily RauhalaToday at 7:48 a.m. EDT · April 30, 2022

5.  Russia’s push into eastern Ukraine comes amid fears of a protracted war

An indicator of difficulties and desperation? (perhaps we will hear echoes of the past with Patton saying - "Rommel - I read your book" - now the Ukrainians and NATO can say Gerasimov - "I read your 'New Generation Warfare'")

Excerpt:
Commenting on the reported appointment of Gerasimov to command the offensive “at the operational and tactical level” a senior western official briefed journalists on Friday that it underlined the operational difficulties Russia was seeing that it needed to move its most senior military officer forward.
“I think the reports, if credible, show the command and control challenges that Russia is facing. The fact that Gerasimov has come forward to get some momentum behind assaults is a real statement of the challenges in the Donbas.

Russia’s push into eastern Ukraine comes amid fears of a protracted war
Analysis: The Kremlin’s mounting offensive comes as Boris Johnson and Jens Stoltenberg say war could last for years
The Guardian · by Peter Beaumont · April 29, 2022
Amid mounting fears among western officials that Russia’s war in Ukraine could drag on for months or years, the Kremlin appears to be focusing its operations around the city of Izium as part of renewed efforts to seize the entirety of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
According to Ukrainian military officials, Russia has been amassing forces around the city, 75 miles south east of Kharkiv on the Donets river, as well as around the Russian city of Belgorod across the border. There are unconfirmed claims that the chief of the Russian general staff, Valery Gerasimov, has been put in command of the push.
In the past week alone, Moscow has added 13 battalion tactical groups to the forces fighting in eastern and southern Ukraine, representing between 10,000 and 13,000 extra troops.
The mounting scale of the offensive around Izium comes as an unnamed US official suggested on Thursday that some Russian troops who had been fighting in the southern port city of Mariupol were being moved north west, perhaps as part of an effort to encircle areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions still under Ukrainian control.
According to the latest update from the Institute for the Study of War, Russian forces appeared to be seeking to bypass Izium to avoid getting bogged down in fighting there, instead heading in the direction of Slovyansk, an assessment was echoed by the most recent Ukrainian updates.
“Russian forces attacking [the] southwest from Izium likely seek to bypass Ukrainian defences on the direct road to Slovyansk,” read the institute’s update, noting that Russian forces had only made minor gains in the past 24 hours.
It added, however, that “additional Russian reinforcements continue to deploy to Belgorod to support the Izium advance”.
Russian forces appear to be attempting to break through the Ukrainian defences on a salient to the north-east of Slovyansk, while attempting to encircle Ukrainian forces to the east at Severodonetsk.
The new focus of the Kremlin’s war – aimed at building a broad land bridge from the Russian border to occupied Crimea and beyond – has come with a shift in tactics to a slower and more deliberate advance as the Russian military has continued to struggle with logistics and other problems in managing its campaign.
The latest stage of the offensive has been marked by an increased concentration of artillery, and the use of artillery fire, to support the slowly advancing Russian troops, with a Pentagon official describing “slow and uneven” progress in fierce fighting in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine.
According to a Pentagon official quoted by the New York Times, Russian troops, however, are still only making “incremental” progress in the campaign around Izium.
Commenting on the reported appointment of Gerasimov to command the offensive “at the operational and tactical level” a senior western official briefed journalists on Friday that it underlined the operational difficulties Russia was seeing that it needed to move its most senior military officer forward.
“I think the reports, if credible, show the command and control challenges that Russia is facing. The fact that Gerasimov has come forward to get some momentum behind assaults is a real statement of the challenges in the Donbas.
The official added: “In the Donbas, we are seeing slow progress – sometimes as little as a kilometre a day in terms of terrain. And what we are seeing there is the indiscriminate use of fire power while they are being smarter using artillery in supporting ground forces. But it is being done in such a way that it puts the civilian population at enormous risk in some towns and villages.”
With the failure of its attempted coup de main against Kyiv in the initial weeks of the war, which saw Russian special forces infiltrate perilously close to where Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy was sheltering, Moscow has settled on a tactic of slowly grinding away at Ukrainian resistance.
While Moscow has lost thousands of troops and hundreds of armoured vehicles, Ukraine’s spending on ammunition and weapons systems has also left it depleted, explaining the huge $33bn (£26.3bn) military aid package announced this week by US president Joe Biden.
All of which has not only raised the spectre of a long war, but the risk that in the end – as Boris Johnson said a week ago – Russia might prevail.
“We need to be prepared for the long term,” Jens Stoltenberg, Nato secretary general, told a summit in Brussels this week.
“There is absolutely the possibility that this war will drag on and last for months and years.”
That assessment followed comments by Boris Johnson, made while visiting Delhi last week, that painted an equally pessimistic picture, including the prospect of a Russian victory.
“I think the sad thing is that that is a realistic possibility,” he said. “Putin has a huge army. He has a very difficult political position because he’s made a catastrophic blunder. The only option he now has really is to continue to try to use his appalling grinding approach led by artillery, trying to grind the Ukrainians down.
“He’s very close to securing a land bridge in Mariupol. The situation is, I’m afraid, unpredictable at this stage, but we’ve just got to be realistic about it.”
That pessimism has been driven by a number of factors. Even while Bulgaria has offered to help Ukraine export its wheat via the port of Varna, Russia’s naval blockade of Ukraine’s coast remains significantly damaging.
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In the short term, despite the heavy losses of men and material, Russian forces still have easier access to equipment resupplies until US and other western arms supplies step up, including a significant advantage in deployed naval and air forces although western officials say that the balance of forces is no longer quite so “overwhelming” for Ukraine.
While the US and the west believes Ukraine “can win” the war against Russia – a view expressed by US defence secretary Lloyd Austin after his recent visit to Ukraine it is likely to involve a bloody and protracted entanglement.
The Guardian · by Peter Beaumont · April 29, 2022

6. Forgiveness, anger and unending grief as families face ISIS kidnappers
Responsibility but not remorse? I am opposed to the death penalty personally, but for these two I think I could be convinced to make an exception if was a long, slow, and painful death. But of course I would be  calling for the unconstitutional cruel and unusual punishment.

Excerpts:
In a 25-page letter to the court, Kotey expressed responsibility but not remorse, framing his acts as “the cost of duty within the confines of a harsh and imbalanced war” against both Assad and Western powers that sought to keep the Islamic State from winning control of Syria.
That context only puts more blood on Kotey’s hands, said Mohammed Almahmoud, who was kidnapped alongside Kassig en route to deliver medical supplies. The Islamic State displaced millions of Muslims, killed thousands of Syrians and ultimately strengthened the brutal Assad dictatorship.
“You are exactly like the regime of Bashar al-Assad,” Almahmoud said. “I won’t forgive you for destroying my country, or killing my friend.”


Forgiveness, anger and unending grief as families face ISIS kidnappers

The Washington Post · April 29, 2022
Alexanda Kotey and El Shafee Elsheikh kidnapped and tortured journalists and aid workers who were murdered by the Islamic State

Yesterday at 6:32 p.m. EDT



Shirley and Arthur Sotloff, parents of Steven Sotloff, arrive at court in Alexandria, Va., earlier this month. (Saul Loeb/AFP/Getty Images)
“Please do not close your eyes,” Shirley Sotloff told the men who held her son captive. “Look at me.”
Alexanda Kotey, 38, and El Shafee Elsheikh, 33, had looked away as the parents, spouses, siblings, children and friends of their victims faced them Friday in an Alexandria, Va., federal courtroom. The witnesses at the sentencing hearing described the agonizing mystery of disappearances of loved ones in Syria and the awful knowledge of their torture and death at the hands of the Islamic State.
Now, two of the perpetrators met Sotloff’s gaze as she described watching her child, a freelance journalist kidnapped while reporting on Syria’s civil war, beheaded in a video that can be “replayed with a click of a button” and loops unceasingly in her mind.
“One can mourn and eventually somewhat heal from a death in the family. But the pain of knowing what was done to him in captivity — this pain does not stop,” she said. “And whatever you believe God will deliver, think about his true judgment of the life you lived, and the torture and murder of innocents that you leave as your legacy.”
Kotey admitted his role last year and agreed to share information, including directly with the victims’ families, for a chance to serve part of a life sentence, imposed Friday, in the United Kingdom. Elsheikh was found guilty at trial and faces a mandatory life sentence. A third Londoner who joined the Islamic State with them, Mohammed Emwazi, died in a 2015 drone strike.
The three held as hostages journalists who had come to report on the war against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, as well as aid workers helping the conflict’s refugees. For hostages from Europe, the Islamic State negotiated ransoms. The American, British and Japanese governments refused to pay, and their citizens were killed and used as terrorist propaganda.
Over a dozen people spoke in court Friday of sleepless nights wondering whether they had done all they could, lies they told friends for fear of putting the hostages in danger and the gnawing lack of last moments together, or graves to visit. Some said they forgave the kidnappers to honor love over hate; others said they could not without some sign of repentance.
James Foley, a freelance journalist from New Hampshire, was the first hostage killed on camera.
“Jim would say, ‘Alexanda and El Shafee, you did not kill me,’” his brother Michael Foley said. “‘I am alive in the stories of those I have told, those heard here in this courtroom, and in the stories yet to be told. I am alive in all who aspire to have moral courage in whatever they choose to do.’”
Steven Sotloff was killed next, followed by David Haines, a Scottish humanitarian worker.
“I wake up during the night hearing my dad’s screams. I hear him begging for his life, and I can’t do anything to save him,” said his daughter, Bethany Haines. “I struggle to explain to my son why Mummy is sad all the time.” She went to Syria to search, without success, for his remains.
She said she still struggles with the idea of forgiving men who “only care about themselves.”
Her uncle, Michael Haines, said he had found his way there. “Terrorism has claimed many lives,” he said. “I will not let it take my soul.”
Alan Henning’s daughter Lucy was 16 when her father was abducted. He had agreed to miss Christmas for an aid mission in Syria. She learned he had been killed when a photo of his body was posted to Instagram.
She said she was left with guilt-loaded questions: “Did he want to send a message? Did he cry? Did he know we were trying like mad to get him out?” And, “If I wasn’t a moody teenager, maybe he wouldn’t have gone?”
Peter Kassig, a former Army Ranger who went to Syria to set up an emergency ambulance service, died next.
“They say time heals. They lie. And closure — that’s just a word they use to make the bystanders feel better,” said his father, Edward Kassig. “For us, the operating word is ‘forever.’”
That pain was exacerbated, he said, by “the emotional cost” of keeping the defendants alive. Trials for Islamic State crimes in Syria have been few and far between, and Kassig noted that the families of the hostages “lobbied hard to keep your hides out of Guantánamo and remove the death penalty” so the case could be heard in a U.S. court.
Peter Kassig converted to Islam in captivity and adopted the name Abdul-Rahman. His parents said they took some comfort from the interfaith services and peace initiatives created in his name.
“I will not hate you,” his mother told Kotey and Elsheikh. “It would give sadness, pain and bitterness too much power over me. I choose to let my heart be broken open, not broken apart.”
Kayla Mueller was held captive with the men. After their deaths, witnesses testified at Elsheikh’s trial, she was enslaved by Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. Her mother, Marsha Mueller, described the “fear and desperation” leading up to the date the kidnappers gave for a ransom to be paid.
“I remember that night, the eve of the deadline, wondering if our daughter was being killed at that very moment,” she said. What little information she received increased the torment. She was told her daughter’s nails were pulled out. Later, she learned it was another woman, in the same cell.
“And yet,” Marsha Mueller said, “I look at my own hands and think of this often.”
Kayla Mueller was killed under unknown circumstances, and her parents said they still hoped to learn more about her death.
“As Kayla’s mom, I need to somehow walk this horror with her,” Marsha Mueller said.
In a 25-page letter to the court, Kotey expressed responsibility but not remorse, framing his acts as “the cost of duty within the confines of a harsh and imbalanced war” against both Assad and Western powers that sought to keep the Islamic State from winning control of Syria.
That context only puts more blood on Kotey’s hands, said Mohammed Almahmoud, who was kidnapped alongside Kassig en route to deliver medical supplies. The Islamic State displaced millions of Muslims, killed thousands of Syrians and ultimately strengthened the brutal Assad dictatorship.
“You are exactly like the regime of Bashar al-Assad,” Almahmoud said. “I won’t forgive you for destroying my country, or killing my friend.”
Liz Sly contributed to this report.
The Washington Post · April 29, 2022

7. Depleted Russian units that failed to take Kyiv are merging, says MoD
Reconstitution and Reorganization. Standard practice for units that become combat ineffective. This will be an indicator of how proficient the Russian military is. And based on its recent performance I do not think this will go all tht well



Depleted Russian units that failed to take Kyiv are merging, says MoD
The Guardian · by Lorenzo Tondo · April 30, 2022
Russian troops have been forced to merge and redeploy units from their “failed advances” in Ukraine’s north-east, the UK Ministry of Defence has said, as both Kyiv and Moscow deal with serious losses on the frontline in the Donbas region.
“Russia hopes to rectify issues that have previously constrained its invasion by geographically concentrating combat power, shortening supply lines and simplifying command and control,” a British military intelligence report released early on Saturday said.
“It has been forced to merge and redeploy depleted and disparate units from the failed advances in north-east Ukraine. Many of these units are likely suffering from weakened morale.”
After Moscow’s withdrawal from the areas north of Kyiv early in April, which revealed the brutality of mass graves, with hundreds of civilian corpses buried in residential districts, about two weeks ago the long-anticipated large-scale military operation in the Donbas and second phase of the war began, with Russian forces carrying out one of the biggest barrages of missile strikes since the beginning of the invasion.
According to figures reported by the Russian news agency Interfax, Moscow’s artillery units hit 389 Ukrainian targets overnight, including 35 control points, 15 arms and ammunition depots, and several areas where Ukrainian troops and equipment were concentrated.
The statement added that Russian missiles also struck four ammunition and fuel depots.
The report has not yet been independently verified.
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However, while acknowledging its own heavy losses from Russia’s attacks in the east, Kyiv has claimed to have inflicted “colossal” Russian losses during Moscow’s effort to fully capture the eastern Donbas region.
“We have serious losses, but the Russians’ losses are much, much bigger … They have colossal losses,” said a Ukrainian presidential adviser, Oleksiy Arestovych.
The English-language newspaper Kyiv Independent tweeted a graphic showing a tally of Russia’s combat losses caused by Ukraine’s armed forces, using data from the Ukraine military.
According to the indicative estimates, as of 30 April, 23,200 Russian soldiers have been killed since the beginning of the invasion. Losses include the destruction of 190 Russian planes, more than 1,000 tanks, eight naval vessels, about 1,700 small vehicles, almost 2,500 armoured personnel carriers and 436 artillery systems.
Ukraine’s second city, Kharkiv, was hit by more deadly shelling on Saturday while Ukrainian forces made some gains in the surrounding region.
Although Ukraine has retained control of Kharkiv, the city has been repeatedly battered by Moscow’s forces and still faces daily attacks.
One person was killed and five injured in artillery and mortar strikes, Kharkiv’s regional military administration said on the Telegram app.
“The situation in the Kharkiv region is tough. But our military, our intelligence, have important tactical success,” the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, said in his latest televised address.
Ukrainian forces said they had recaptured the village of Ruska Lozova, near Kharkiv, which had been occupied by Russian troops for two months, and evacuated hundreds of civilians.
The Pentagon spokesperson, John Kirby, on Friday briefly choked with emotion as he described the destruction in Ukraine and denounced Putin’s “depravity”.
Pentagon spokesperson fights tears describing Putin's 'depraved' invasion of Ukraine – video
Ukrainian prosecutors say they have pinpointed more than 8,000 war crimes carried out by Russian troops and are investigating 10 Russian soldiers for suspected atrocities in Bucha near Kyiv.
It has been a month since the Ukrainian army pushed Russian forces out of the Kyiv region, yet local police and volunteers are still finding new graves. More than 1,000 bodies have been recovered there, according to Ukrainian prosecutors, who said many more people were killed by bombs, making their remains hard to find.
Ukrainian police on Saturday reported finding three bodies with their hands tied behind their backs as Russia continued shelling the east. The bodies were found on Friday in a pit near Bucha, a town close to Kyiv that has become synonymous with allegations of Russian war crimes.
Moscow on Friday confirmed it carried out an airstrike on Kyiv during a visit by the UN secretary general, António Guterres.
Zelenskiy called for a stronger global response after the strike, saying that “a deliberate and brutal humiliation of the United Nations by Russia has gone unanswered”.
Guterres had also toured Bucha and other Kyiv suburbs where Moscow is alleged to have committed war crimes.
Guterres tweeted on Friday: “I was moved by the resilience and bravery of the people of Ukraine. My message to them is simple: We will not give up.”
He added: “The UN will redouble its efforts to save lives and reduce human suffering. In this war, as in all wars, the civilians always pay the highest price.”
Reuters, Agence France-Presse and Associated Press contributed to this report
The Guardian · by Lorenzo Tondo · April 30, 2022


8. Russia’s Sanctioned Superyachts: New Platforms For Indo-Pacific Diplomacy

Interesting analysis:

After decades of neglect, there’s a lot of diplomatic work the West needs to do in the Pacific. Let’s use the remains of Putin’s diplomatic Navy to do some of it.

Russia’s Sanctioned Superyachts: New Platforms For Indo-Pacific Diplomacy
Forbes · by Craig Hooper · April 30, 2022
Civil Guards stand by the sanctioned Russian yacht "Tango" in Palma de Mallorca, Spain.
ASSOCIATED PRESS
As Western countries begin the process of seizing Russian assets, the scope and scale of Russian “quasi-state” overseas investment is stunning. The patterns of Russian maritime investment are particularly striking. Rather than build a modern Navy, Russia’s state-linked oligarchs built a fleet of quasi-governmental luxury cruisers for diplomatic work. The West has an unprecedented opportunity to employ this fleet for similar purposes.
Russia spent billions building a fleet of luxury yachts for a simple reason. In aggregate, Russia’s high-end cruise ships did great work in advancing Russian interests. And now, as the West sanctions and sweeps up these vessels, Russia’s luxe armada can go to work for the West as roving diplomatic posts or globe-spanning Presidential and Royal yachts.
Russia invested in luxury ships because they realized the return on investment from a luxury yacht was far better for Russia than any comparable investment in a conventional naval platform or diplomatic facility. So, rather than invest in diplomatic outreach or better weapons, sensors, and damage-control systems for the Russian Navy’s enormous Slava Class Cruisers—the same type of ship that Ukraine sunk in the Black Sea—Russia’s President, Vladimir Putin, encouraged his friends procure an enormous, free-wheeling fleet of luxury craft.
Putin’s flamboyant fleet served as unregulated floating embassies, offering Russians instant respectability, good security, and access to all the types of people Russia needed to make good things happen for the Russian state.
But Russia’s water party is over.
The few sanctioned Russian yachts still free are racing to Russian ports or seeking some other marginally-respectable safe-haven. Others, trapped in boatyards or otherwise stuck, are getting impounded and seized by Western authorities.
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Rather than take a moment to figure out how these unexpected new assets might be employed, Western authorities seem content to just shuffle these one-of-a-kind platforms “off the books” as soon as possible. While commendable, the abrupt divestment is bad business. With the Russian State out of the luxe vessel market, the ships will likely sell for pennies on the dollar.
Don’t Lose The Ships, Use Them!
In early April, the United States KleptoCapture Task Force seized the $90-million dollar “The Tango”, a Netherlands-built superyacht owned by Russian oligarch Viktor Vekselberg. The mid-sized, 255-foot yacht was launched in 2011, operating with a crew of 22 and capable of supporting a staff of 14 or more. This type of craft—about half the size of an Arleigh Burke destroyer—would be a perfect diplomatic supplement to America’s sparse diplomatic cadre in the strategic but under-represented and oft-ignored set of islands in the South Pacific.
The United States needs extra diplomatic presence in the South Pacific right away. In the strategically-located Solomons Islands—an island chain perched between the United States and Australia, Chinese diplomats exploited Western disinterest in the small, impoverished country, enticing the Solomons Islands into agreements that likely offers China enormous inroads into the area, and, potentially, an avenue to establish a forward military presence there. Lacking effective diplomatic representation, the United States was caught by surprise, and rushed a delegation led by Kurt Campbell, the White House Indo-Pacific coordinator, to the country, promising, among other things, to re-open a long-closed U.S. embassy.
Reopening the Solomons Islands embassy will take too long. But turning “The Tango” into an ersatz floating embassy can be done quite quickly, and American diplomats, sailing aboard the luxury platform, can do an enormous amount of regional influencing in a way that China will be hard-pressed to match.
An innovative floating embassy, moving around several island countries in the Pacific, could have gotten early wind of China’s machinations. But rather than invest in something concrete—as this author has argued for since 2009—or even tend American battle monuments in the region—the State Department, after closing the Solomons Islands embassy in 1993, spent an enormous amount of money “innovating”, deploying a “virtual embassy” for the Solomons Islands—despite the fact that, at the time, only 2% of Solomon Island residents had internet access.
The operational costs of deploying a luxury yacht into the southern oceans is tiny in comparison to the expense of losing out to better-established diplomatic rivals. The State Department will never have access to a well-appointed luxury yacht again. Let’s use it before we lose it.
Use Superyachts As Embassies:
A century ago, when diplomacy was the province of well-heeled U.S. representatives, the U.S. pressed private pleasure yachts into diplomatic service before. But today, modern superyachts have many features that are perfect for diplomatic work in the Pacific.
The ships are secure and commodious. Modern super yachts usually have some type of self-defense/anti-intrusion system, advanced communication capabilities, as well as a private and well-secured “owner’s suite” that might be perfect for a floating ambassador’s residence or office.
The luxury ships are usually impressive architectural statements, crafted to attract notice and awe from observers—something that embassy designers once appreciated.
The ships are built to securely socialize. To get people or gear on and off, most super yachts have some small “tender” boats as well as a well deck or small-boat receiving capability. Others even have helicopter landing or hangar facilities, offering extra reach and support for remote regions that U.S. diplomatic representatives may rarely visit. Some even have “moon pools” and submarines—a capability that might be particularly interesting in certain stretches of South Pacific Ocean.
All super yachts have a comprehensive suite of social facilities, where visitors might relax and enjoy their stay as they are persuaded to advance Western interests. Work-out rooms and cozy common areas can also support the recreational needs of the embarked crew and staff.
The ships can support a good-sized ambassadorial staff. The U.S. Embassy Majuro, perched on the Republic of the Marshall Islands, relies on a staff of 17. But these staffers can only see a portion of the country—While Majuro is the capital, the Marshalls, as a country, is sprawling place. In total, the country includes five islands and 29 separate atolls. An occasional U.S. visit to the outer-lying islands would do a lot to raise America’s stature, helping ensure that the Marshall Islands will keep granting U.S. access to the critical Ronald Reagan Ballistic Missile Defense Test Site and Space Tracking Station.
There are other benefits. With a few yachts circulating through the Pacific, demonstrating presence, constantly working with locals, and building better ties with the strategically placed and often fragile democracies of Oceania, the boats can help build up local ship maintenance and repair capabilities.
Outside of diplomatic work, the former Russian-owned vessels can be pressed into service as “mother ships” to support other nearby American vessels. In an effort to understand and limit illegal fishing, the U.S. Coast Guard is dispatching small cutters throughout the Pacific. A super yacht with a helicopter, fuel, and a place to rest would be boon as the Coast Guard’s small ships work, often alone, in maintaining “rules-based” order in the often-lawless Pacific waters.
After decades of neglect, there’s a lot of diplomatic work the West needs to do in the Pacific. Let’s use the remains of Putin’s diplomatic Navy to do some of it.
Forbes · by Craig Hooper · April 30, 2022

9. U.S. Troops Train Ukrainians in Germany


U.S. Troops Train Ukrainians in Germany
defense.gov · by JIM GARAMONE
U.S. service members in Germany have begun training Ukrainian soldiers on key systems being used to defend Ukraine against the Russian invasion, Pentagon Press Secretary John F. Kirby said today.
40:54
"These efforts build on the initial artillery training that Ukraine's forces already have received elsewhere and also includes training on radar systems and armored vehicles that have been recently announced as part of security assistance packages," Kirby said.
U.S. Army Europe and Africa is organizing the training in coordination with Germany.
Florida National Guardsmen — who were part of the Joint Multinational Training Group in Western Ukraine and were ordered out of the country as the threat of the Russian invasion intensified — have reunited with Ukrainians in Germany and are again working to give the Ukrainians the knowledge they need to defend their country.
"The recent reunion of these Florida National Guard members with their Ukrainian colleagues, we are told, was an emotional meeting, given the strong bonds that were formed as they were living and working together before temporarily parting ways in February," Kirby said.
The United States is not the only country training Ukrainian service members. Yesterday, Canadian Defense Minister Anita Anand said Canadian service members were training Ukrainians on the M-777 howitzer in Europe.
This training effort is in direct support of recent U.S. security assistance packages "designed to help Ukraine win their battles today and build strength for tomorrow," Kirby said.

News Conference
Pentagon Press Secretary John F. Kirby holds a briefing at the Pentagon, April 29, 2022.
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These systems are necessary to counter Russia's new push into the Donbas region of Ukraine.
This training package is just the latest in an effort that goes back to the break-up of the Soviet Union, but that intensified after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014 and illegally annexed Crimea. "We're here today talking about the Florida National Guard," he said. "But as you all know, they were preceded by others of their colleagues going back over the last eight years."
That training effort has been key to Ukraine's stout defense of its capital city of Kyiv and the fight they are putting up in Donbas. The training helped transform Ukraine from a Soviet-style military to a more agile and deadly force. "They have better command and control," Kirby said. "They have better battlefield initiative. They have a competent noncommissioned officer corps that is empowered on the field of battle to make tactical decisions. That didn't happen by accident."
The bulk of the training on the new systems Ukraine is getting will be performed by the Florida Guardsmen. They can, of course, call on Army units in Germany to assist if they need it, the press secretary said.
U.S. officials want to make the training useful and constructive, but not onerous — meaning the Ukrainians are fighting a war in their country and do not have the time for long training classes. As such, the Ukraine military chose artillery personnel to learn to operate the M-777 howitzer. They have the background needed to operate artillery and just need to learn the peculiarities of the American system.
The same is true of radar operators. While they will receive American systems, these soldiers have already learned about radar and just need to learn what buttons to push, or what pulses mean on American sets.
These Ukrainians soldiers will then go back to Ukraine and teach their fellow soldiers how to use the equipment effectively.

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Pentagon Press Secretary John F. Kirby holds a briefing at the Pentagon, April 29, 2022.
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"As you might imagine, these soldiers are eager to learn these new skills, but they're also eager to apply those new skills in the conflict," Kirby said.
The press secretary was asked about Russian nuclear saber-rattling. He said the United States continually watches the Russia's nuclear preparations, and officials believe U.S. deterrence is positioned correctly. He said the United States takes any threats seriously and is prepared.
"I'm not going to go into the psychology of [Russian President] Vladimir Putin," Kirby said. "It's hard to look at what he's doing in Ukraine, what his forces are doing in Ukraine and think that any ethical, moral individual could justify that. It's difficult to look at some of the images and imagine that any well-thinking, serious, mature leader would do that. So, I can't talk to his psychology. But I think we can all speak to his depravity."
defense.gov · by JIM GARAMONE

10. Rape has reportedly become a weapon in Ukraine. Finding justice may be difficult

The brutal horror of this war.

So many atrocities but this one stands out and if accurate is very telling - ifor a commander to do this on the day they enter the village - perhaps trying to set the tone for eh occupation - it indicates to me this is systematic and sanctioned.
A woman raped by a Russian commander on the day tanks entered the village of Kalyta.



Rape has reportedly become a weapon in Ukraine. Finding justice may be difficult
NPR · by Laurel Wamsley · April 30, 2022

A woman representing a rape victim leads protesters in Berlin demonstrating in an April 16 march against Russian military aggression in the ongoing wars in Ukraine and Syria. Adam Berry/Getty Images
Editor's note: This report includes descriptions of sexual and physical violence.
Accounts of alleged sexual violence coming out of Ukraine in recent weeks have been grim. A woman raped repeatedly by a Russian soldier after her husband was killed outside Kyiv. A mother of four gang raped by Russian soldiers in Kherson. The body of a Ukrainian woman found dead — naked and branded with a swastika. A woman raped by a Russian commander on the day tanks entered the village of Kalyta.
The number of reports that have emerged since the start of the war in late February suggests that rape in Ukraine at the hands of Russian soldiers may be widespread. Those fears were further crystallized earlier this month following the Russian withdrawal from Bucha, a suburb of the capital Kyiv, where some two dozen women and girls were "systematically raped" by Russian forces, according to Ukraine's ombudswoman for human rights, Lyudmyla Denisova.

"What we've seen in Bucha is not the random act of a rogue unit," said U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken. "It's a deliberate campaign to kill, to torture, to rape, to commit atrocities. The reports are more than credible. The evidence is there for the world to see."
History has shown that rape in wartime has been used to horrifying effect. Such crimes can be used to humiliate, intimidate and punish. Victims are primarily women and girls, though men and boys can also suffer sexual violence. Rape has been used as a tactic of genocide — to shape the future of a country through forced impregnation. Gang rape has even been a grotesque way for disparate troops to bond. Rape in war zones can be opportunistic or systematic — and it nearly always goes unpunished.
What's happening in Ukraine
Two months into the war, much remains to be investigated and confirmed about the prevalence of sexual assaults in Ukraine. NPR has been unable to independently verify individual accounts. But in an interview with Morning Edition, Matilda Bogner, the head of a United Nations team documenting possible human rights abuses in Ukraine, says she has received "dozens" of allegations.
"It is difficult to fully confirm sexual violence because it's often the type of case where victims don't want to speak publicly, and they're often not in safe areas where it feels safe for them to speak out, or where they have received the services that they need," she said.

Organizations such as the United NationsHuman Rights Watch and La Strada Ukraine have begun to document sexual violence in Ukraine. So, too, have Ukrainian officials.
"The cases we documented amount to unspeakable, deliberate cruelty and violence against Ukrainian civilians," said Hugh Williamson, Europe and Central Asia director at Human Rights Watch, in a report earlier this month. "Rape, murder, and other violent acts against people in the Russian forces' custody should be investigated as war crimes."
Russia has denied allegations of rape and other atrocities by its soldiers in Ukraine. "It is a lie," Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov said in response to one Ukrainian woman's account of Russian soldiers shooting her husband dead then raping her repeatedly.
But Dara Kay Cohen, a professor of public policy at the Harvard Kennedy School and author of the book Rape During Civil War, says she's watching what's happening in Ukraine with "a great deal of trepidation, worry and horror." From the accounts that are public, she has noticed some disturbing trends.
"One of them is reports of gang rape, which is actually very common in wartime," she tells NPR. "In fact, gang rape in particular is by far the most widely reported form of rape during periods of conflict. And that's in stark contrast to peacetime, where gang rape is relatively rare, even in places where we know rape to be quite common."

Women embrace each other as bodies are exhumed from a mass grave to be inspected for possible war crimes on April 8 in Bucha, outside Kyiv, Ukraine. Laurel Chor/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images
Another disturbing trend she has noticed is a lack of any attempt to hide such crimes. In some conflicts, she says, perpetrators will attempt to bury the evidence, perhaps by killing the victims or witnesses. While information remains limited, Cohen says this brazenness by Russian soldiers suggests to her that commanders are, at a minimum, "aware of what's happening."
"It doesn't suggest ... individual soldiers going off to engage in opportunistic sexual violence. It suggests something that is at the very least being tolerated by the command, if not ordered," she says.
One example she points to is the violence that took place in Bucha. Denisova, the Ukrainian ombudswoman for human rights, described the situation to the BBC: "About 25 girls and women aged 14 to 24 were systematically raped during the occupation in the basement of one house in Bucha. Nine of them are pregnant. Russian soldiers told them they would rape them to the point where they wouldn't want sexual contact with any man, to prevent them from having Ukrainian children."
Cohen says this account reminds her of some of the horrors that took place in Bosnia during the Balkan Wars of the 1990s, when women were raped and impregnated.
The atrocities in Bucha are "genocide wrapped in gender-based sexual violence," wrote Sharon Block, a professor of history at the University of California, Irvine. "The soldiers could have killed the women and girls to prevent reproduction. But they chose to inflict sexual harm as a sign of their power."
Russian officials have claimed that the country's military operation in Ukraine is being distorted and that the atrocities in Ukraine have been "staged" by Ukrainian forces to be circulated by Western media.
Rape is not common in all conflicts
Mia Bloom, a professor at Georgia State University and an international security fellow at the think tank New America, says it's important to understand that although rape is a war crime, it is not something that is present in all wars.
And danger can come from different directions. In one case noted by The Guardian, a Ukrainian teacher had been dragged into the school library by a Ukrainian soldier who tried to rape her. She reported him to the police and the man was arrested.
"It's not just a normal part of war. Not all soldiers rape," Bloom tells NPR. Bloom and Cohen are both a part of the Sexual Violence in Armed Conflict project, which collects data on the subject.
She says because there is variation between conflicts — some have rampant sexual violence, while others have little — there isn't a consistent theory of when and why rape is used in war.
But scholars have identified different strategic aims. One goal can be to weaken or alter a society by forcibly impregnating women with children fathered by the enemy. She points to the Serbian "rape camps" in Bosnia, where women and girls say they were raped until they were pregnant — and then imprisoned to prevent them from getting abortions.

Ukrainian protesters in Manchester, England, hold placards on April 9 showing atrocities in Ukraine since the Russian invasion of the country. Andrew McCoy/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images
"That's not accidental," says Bloom. "You're allocating resources. And the way they were thinking is they would undermine the cohesion of the community because that next generation would be giving birth to babies that were half and half — that had the ethnicity of their father, despite the fact that there was no communication with the father."
Rape can also weaken social ties if the victim is then rejected by her own family or community, as has been the plight of many Nigerian girls and women kidnapped and impregnated by Boko Haram fighters. Even when the women escape and make it home, community members have told researchers the children had "bad blood" transmitted from their fathers.
But Bloom believes that an underlying feminism in Ukrainian society could serve to reduce the stigma that has often been the burden of survivors of sexual violence.
"Women have played such an important role in the resistance and in fighting the Russians that the likelihood of the women being ostracized and blamed is very low," Bloom says.
Militaries have used rape as a war weapon
In Ukraine, experts say there are indications that Russian soldiers are using rape in a number of ways — as a form of punishment, as well as with perhaps systematic, genocidal aims.
While the precise motivation remains unknown, Cohen says the reports coming out of Ukraine suggest something other than opportunistic violence.
"These are incredibly violent rapes where there are photos circulating of women's bodies that have been branded, women who have been raped multiple times, women who have been held as sexual slaves, women who have been raped until they're pregnant," Cohen says. "All of these things are beyond just an opportunism argument and are indications of rape being used as some kind of weapon."
It's a view that was shared this month by the British ambassador to Ukraine, Melinda Simmons.
"Rape is a weapon of war," Simmons said. "Though we don't yet know the full extent of its use in Ukraine, it's already clear it was part of Russia's arsenal. Women raped in front of their kids, girls in front of their families, as a deliberate act of subjugation."

A Ukrainian soldier wears a heart-shaped Ukrainian flag given to her by a child at a checkpoint in Bakhmut, eastern Ukraine, on April 23. Yasuyoshi Chiba/AFP via Getty Images
Justice for survivors is rare
As the fighting continues, investigations into possible war crimes in Ukraine, including rape, have already begun.
In the first two weeks of April, the Ukrainian ombudsman received 400 reports of rape committed by Russian soldiers, the Kyiv Independent reported. And a U.N. mission has received 75 allegations of rape against Ukrainians.
But the track record of holding anyone accountable for rape during wartime isn't long.
The International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda convicted the mayor of Taba, Rwanda, in 2001. Ratko Mladic, the former Bosnian Serb military commander, was found guilty by the International Criminal Court in 2017 of genocide and war crimes, including the mass rape of women and girls. Slobodan Milosevic, the former Yugoslav leader, faced similar charges but died in jail in 2006 before the end of his trial.
Russia is not a party to the ICC, nor is the United States. Ukraine isn't either, but it has recognized the court's authority, so the court could prosecute atrocity crimes committed in Ukraine.
The ICC's top prosecutor has said he will fast-track an investigation into war crimes in Ukraine. But Ukraine's foreign minister has said he has little confidence in organizations like the ICC to prosecute crimes like rape.
"When Russian soldiers rape women in Ukrainian cities — it's difficult, of course, to speak about the efficiency of international law," the minister, Dmytro Kuleba, said at a forum last month.
Cohen says that holding people to account for rape in wartime is rare. At the highest levels, it's usually difficult to prove that the rape was ordered by someone in command.
"It is very rare to ever have smoking gun evidence that rape was ordered from the top down," she says.
And for the rank-and-file soldiers accused of committing such atrocities, prosecutions can be exceedingly hard to come by.
"There is some degree of accountability, but it is rare," says Cohen. "But I think that that does not imply, however, that we shouldn't be doing our best to collect all of the documentation that we possibly can in order to potentially hold perpetrators accountable."
Speaking with The Atlantic earlier this month, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said real victory will come only when the perpetrators are tried, convicted and sentenced. But justice likely won't come quickly, he conceded.
"How long do we have to wait? It's a long process, these courts, tribunals, international courts," he said.
NPR · by Laurel Wamsley · April 30, 2022

11. Former US Marine colonel training soldiers in Ukraine says 'Russians are worse than ISIS'

I still think we should have active duty SF advisors on the ground.
Former US Marine colonel training soldiers in Ukraine says 'Russians are worse than ISIS'
Business Insider · by Alia Shoaib

A Ukrainian soldier stands near an apartment ruined from Russian shelling in Borodyanka, Ukraine, Wednesday, Apr. 6, 2022.
AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky
  • Former US Marine Colonel Andy Milburn said that the Russian military's actions in Ukraine are worse than ISIS.
  • The Marine said the Russians had "a very, very deliberate approach to killing civilians," he wrote in Newsweek.
  • Milburn heads up a group of veterans that are helping to train forces in Ukraine.
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A former US Marine colonel helping train Ukrainian forces has condemned the Russian military's actions as being worse than ISIS.
"I have a greater respect for the ethical behavior of the Islamic State than I do for the Russians. That is no exaggeration," Andy Milburn wrote in an article for Newsweek.
Milburn has served in Iraq, Afghanistan, Somalia, and Libya and commanded a special operations task force against ISIS in 2016. He began his career as a second lieutenant and later became a colonel and task force commander.
The Marine said that he was one of the first people in Bucha, Ukraine, after the Russian retreat, where reports have emerged of a civilian massacre in which nearly 300 people were buried in mass graves.
Milburn said that he saw bodies dumped in Bucha, including children.
While noting that civilian casualties are common in war, Milburn said the events in Bucha appeared to be "a very, very deliberate approach to killing civilians."
"People were dragged from their homes and killed, women gang-raped in cellars and executed."
Milburn wrote that he is no stranger to the depravity of war but that Russia's actions left him "filled with the deepest contempt and anger."

Communal workers carry a civilian in a body bag in the town of Bucha, not far from the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv.
Sergei Supinksy/AFP
Milburn is currently heading up The Mozart Group, which comprises a team of American and British veterans training Ukrainian forces.
The type of training they're providing includes basic tactical training, battlefield clearance, and medical training.
Milburn clarified that despite the similar name, his group is nothing like the "mercenaries" of Russia's Wagner Group.
The Wagner Group is a Russia-backed private military organization that has been repeatedly accused of war crimes and atrocities worldwide.
"I don't want anyone to think we're anything like them, and I don't want anyone to think our sole purpose is to oppose them. We have such contempt for that organization," he said.
Milburn wrote that the Mozart Group has no ties to the government and is funded solely by donations. He said the group would soon have 100 volunteers in Ukraine.
"I don't want to pretend we've changed the course of the war. Honestly, I think a lot of the effect we've had has been intangible," Milburn wrote.
"The Ukrainians seem really excited to have Americans and Brits behind them, helping them and supporting them. I think that's important."
Milburn said that in some areas, Ukrainian forces are better than US and UK troops in some areas, such as understanding drones– which have come to play a crucial weapon of the war.
He said that Ukrainians understand "not just strike drones, but how drones extend the reach of your senses."
"They also understand how to use precision fires, they take basic quadcopters and turn them into deadly weapons. There is some very ingenious stuff going on," Milburn said.
The Marine praised Ukrainian forces for their high morale and their "confidence that the Russians will not win that increases with the more atrocities that they come across."
Milburn said that he suspects the war will last at least a year, and that The Mozart Group will continue with its work in Ukraine.
"We are trying to do more than stick a band aid on the problem, we are trying to build capability and capacity and resilience," he wrote.

Business Insider · by Alia Shoaib



12. Ukraine Becomes a Wake-Up Call in Faraway Japan

Excerpts:
The war in Ukraine has clearly touched a nerve. Not only does Japan have its own territorial dispute with Russia, the invasion has brought home the very real risk of an unprovoked attack, in a way that never happened with North Korean missile and nuclear tests, or the repeated naval harassment of shipping boats by China’s Coast Guard around the disputed islands.
Japan’s hawks have long been aware of an increasingly aggressive China. Right-leaning commentators talk of Japan becoming “a second Ukraine” unless action is taken. While this may be an overstatement, Japan has legitimate fears of widespread instability and economic chaos that would be the consequence if China invaded Taiwan. Meanwhile, the chaotic Trump presidency and the aloofness of the Obama administration have raised doubts about the vaunted U.S. commitment to Japan’s defense. 
Younger voters seem to be tilting conservative on security. Greater defense spending was backed by 65% of those age 18-39, according to the Nikkei. The patriotic reputation of the country’s so-called Self-Defense Forces — in effect, Japan’s military — has improved because of its heroic disaster-relief operations and, most recently, key role in administering Covid vaccines. 


Ukraine Becomes a Wake-Up Call in Faraway Japan
Tokyo spent the decades since WWII in a pacifist slumber. Russia’s invasion is a reminder that there are risks for dozing too long. 



April 27, 2022, 6:30 PM EDT

Just days before the national holiday this Friday commemorating the birth of the late Emperor Hirohito, Japan got a rude reminder of its inextricable part in the global history of war. It came in the form of an apology from the government of Ukraine. 
Social media out of Kyiv had released a video about fighting fascism that represented the Axis powers with images of Adolf Hitler, Benito Mussolini and Hirohito — who sat on the Chrysanthemum throne during World War II and oversaw Japan’s return to prosperity and active “non-aggression” in the decades after its defeat. Hirohito has been portrayed by some as a helpless puppet of the militarists who ran the empire’s expansionist policies in the first half of the 20th century. Japan’s government says it’s not appropriate to rank him alongside Hitler and Mussolini.
The video was re-edited and the government issued a tweet saying, “We had no intention to offend the friendly people of Japan.” Tokyo has been a staunch ally of Ukraine since Russia invaded the country in February.
The social-media episode, however, comes amid a potential shift in Japan’s attitude toward defense in general. And it’s about time. The nation has enjoyed such a stretch of peace that some talk about a particularly Japanese affliction known as heiwa boke — a phrase which might be translated as “peace complacency” or perhaps, in the words of harsher critics, “peace senility.” 
Safe under the U.S. nuclear security umbrella since 1945, Japan avoided sullying its hands with armed conflict and drifted into a kind of defense dotage — believing in pacifism as a virtue in and of itself, and, therefore, not bearing responsibility for a world full of danger and conflict. 
That has begun to change. Russia’s war on Ukraine has stirred up emotions and the nation might just be rousing from its long slumber. Hawkish former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is among those leading calls for the country to boost spending on defense. “If Japan, which says it needs the cooperation of other countries for regional peace and stability, doesn’t raise its spending it will be a laughing stock,” Abe told a symposium in Tokyo last week. A research panel of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party is proposing that Prime Minister Fumio Kishida at least double defense spending to 2% of GDP. 
Abe tried and failed to get the military budget beyond the long-held voluntary cap of about 1%. This time, however, public opinion has come out in greater support. Since February, polls have repeatedly backed higher spending on defense. A Nikkei survey this week showed 55% in support of the LDP’s 2% proposal. That’s a stunning turnaround from the early 2000s, when government polls showed barely double-digit backing for any increase in defense spending. Just seven years ago, thousands demonstrated against Abe’s tweaks to security legislation allowing Japan to send troops to fight overseas.
The war in Ukraine has clearly touched a nerve. Not only does Japan have its own territorial dispute with Russia, the invasion has brought home the very real risk of an unprovoked attack, in a way that never happened with North Korean missile and nuclear tests, or the repeated naval harassment of shipping boats by China’s Coast Guard around the disputed islands.
Japan’s hawks have long been aware of an increasingly aggressive China. Right-leaning commentators talk of Japan becoming “a second Ukraine” unless action is taken. While this may be an overstatement, Japan has legitimate fears of widespread instability and economic chaos that would be the consequence if China invaded Taiwan. Meanwhile, the chaotic Trump presidency and the aloofness of the Obama administration have raised doubts about the vaunted U.S. commitment to Japan’s defense. 
Younger voters seem to be tilting conservative on security. Greater defense spending was backed by 65% of those age 18-39, according to the Nikkei. The patriotic reputation of the country’s so-called Self-Defense Forces — in effect, Japan’s military — has improved because of its heroic disaster-relief operations and, most recently, key role in administering Covid vaccines. 
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The question is: Will Japan wake up fast enough? While attitudes might be changing, the political sphere moves slowly and cautiously. Any debate will be protracted. Already, the LDP proposal is being castigated by proponents of the post-war status quo. It “aims to make Japan a de-facto military superpower under the guise of strengthening deterrence,” thundered the left-leaning Tokyo Shimbun in an editorial, urging the government “not to undermine the principles of the ‘Peace Constitution’.” Natsuo Yamaguchi, the leader of the LDP’s long-standing coalition partner Komeito, has already poured cold water on the idea of breaking the 1% of GDP spending line on defense. 
Rethinking taboos is no easy feat. A recent white paper on defense was the center of controversy after it put a picture of a samurai warrior on its cover (a previous cover was pink and was illustrated by Mount Fuji and a cherry blossom). But it’s well past time for Japan to seriously review such hangups. The world is a dangerous place and Japan must realize it has responsibilities.
Abe and other hawks are now encouraging a discussion on nuclear sharing: the possibility of deploying U.S. nuclear weapons on Japanese soil, something that would go against the decades-long abhorrence of such apocalyptic armaments.
Prime Minister Kishida, a lawmaker representing Hiroshima, swiftly rejected such a move. Still, he is key to any further change in policy precisely because he hails from one of the two cities devastated by atomic bombs. A good start would be for him to make good on the LDP’s long-held election pledge to revise the constitution to clarify the role of the Self-Defense Forces.
Kishida can also back practical ones: Increased spending to boost the SDF’s declining manpower, and moving forward on cybersecurity, space operations and missile defense. He can do this without betraying the legacy of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
More From This Writer and Others at Bloomberg Opinion:
What Disney Can Teach Microsoft in the Gaming Wars: Gearoid Reidy
Mariupol Could Be the Thermopylae of the 21st Century: Andreas Kluth
Only One Thing Will Help Ukraine Now. Weapons: Therese Raphael
Want more from Bloomberg Opinion? Terminal readers head to OPIN <GO>. Web readers, click here.
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.
To contact the author of this story:
Gearoid Reidy at greidy1@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Howard Chua-Eoan at hchuaeoan@bloomberg.net


13. Japanese PM Seeks To Set The Global Agenda

Conclusion:

Taken overall, Kishida’s trip will therefore burnish Japan’s international leadership credentials. In the context of the growing uncertainty about the future of the rules-based order and liberal democracy itself, these talks will help set the agenda for Germany’s presidency of the G7 this year, as well as Indonesia’s presidency of the G20, both of which will promote agendas based around a commitment to multilateralism.

Japanese PM Seeks To Set The Global Agenda – OpEd - Eurasia Review
eurasiareview.com · by Arab News · April 30, 2022
By Andrew Hammond*
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Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, who was previously the nation’s longest-serving foreign minister, is putting his diplomatic skills to the test again with a tricky tour of Asia and Europe, during which he will seek to set the global agenda for the months to come.
The trip, which began on Friday, is the most important yet of his premiership and comes shortly before he hosts in May leaders of the other three so-called Quad powers: the US, India and Australia. This underlines the increasingly important role Tokyo now occupies on the world stage as a strong supporter of liberal democracy and the rules-based economic order, including the multilateral trade system.
In Asia, Kishida will visit three regional powerhouses: Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam. The Indonesia leg is important given that Jakarta is chairing the G20 this year and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations next year. In Vietnam, he will discuss that nation’s hosting of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum this year.
In all three Asian stops he will rally support for Ukraine. He will also renew calls for a free and open Asia-Pacific in the face of the rise of China, including through the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership.
Japan has been at the vanguard of the 11 nations in Asia-Pacific and the Americas, including Vietnam, that signed the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Together they account for about 13 percent of global trade and have a combined population of about 500 million. Several other nations, including Thailand and Indonesia, are reportedly interested in joining.
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Ukraine and trade talks will also dominate the European section of Kishida’s tour. His country has shown significant support for Kyiv since Moscow’s invasion, and he has spoken with President Volodymyr Zelensky on several occasions.
Japan is one of Europe’s closest like-minded partners and is genuinely concerned about the developments in Ukraine, as will be illustrated by public statements made when he visits Italy and the UK in the coming week.
Tokyo is committed to strengthening relations with its European partners in a number of areas, including enhanced political cooperation, trade and investment, development, digital transformation, climate action, research and innovation, security cooperation, and sustainable growth.
Ukraine aside, it will probably be international trade and the rules-based economic order that will take up the most bandwidth of all the issues on the table in Italy. Since Donald Trump’s US presidency, Japan and Europe have stepped up their leadership on this agenda, not least with the signing of the EU-Japan trade agreement. Both sides want to take stock of the implementation of this mammoth deal, which covers nations with about a third of global gross domestic product and almost 650 million people.
The EU-Japan accord took years to agree, with the scrapping of almost all duties on Japanese and European imports respectively hitting the headlines. This could be a particular boon for key EU exports to Japan such as dairy and food products, while Japan’s auto manufacturers might be big winners, too.
Japan remains the world’s third-largest economy after the US and China, and is one of Europe’s top export markets in Asia. In the EU, it is estimated that about 600,000 jobs are tied to bilateral trade, with an estimated 74,000 European firms exporting to Japan.
Beyond the numbers, however, both sides have stressed that the trade treaty is also important because it rests on “values and principles.” In part, this relates to the fact that the agreement is the first struck by Brussels that includes language about upholding the Paris climate agreement. Specifically, there is a commitment to supporting the Paris treaty by making a “positive contribution” to efforts to reduce the effects of climate change by cutting greenhouse gas emissions. This follows a move by the European Commission to try to ensure that all EU trade deals reference the key climate deal.
Trade will also be key to the talks in London, the final stop of Kishida’s tour. The UK-Japan Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement was the first deal the UK struck after Brexit. It is tailored to both economies, with benefits for the digital and data, financial services, food and drink, and creative industries.
It is estimated that it could boost bilateral trade by more than £15 billion ($19 billion), and includes a strong commitment from Japan to support UK access to the Trans-Pacific Partnership. In so doing, the agreement marks a closer alliance between the UK and Japan, with the two nations working closely together as they champion international trade issues.
Taken overall, Kishida’s trip will therefore burnish Japan’s international leadership credentials. In the context of the growing uncertainty about the future of the rules-based order and liberal democracy itself, these talks will help set the agenda for Germany’s presidency of the G7 this year, as well as Indonesia’s presidency of the G20, both of which will promote agendas based around a commitment to multilateralism.
  • Andrew Hammond is an associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics.
eurasiareview.com · by Arab News · April 30, 2022

14. Is American Democracy Built to Last?

I remain bullish on our great American experiment and I believe we must continue to strive for a more perfect union.

Is American Democracy Built to Last?
The New York Times · by Blake Hounshell · April 29, 2022
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Yascha Mounk, a political scientist, warns in a new book that countries like the United States are not as stable or immune to violent conflict as they appear.

By
April 29, 2022
When Yascha Mounk went on a German television program to talk about the rise of authoritarianism in Western democracies, he never expected a seemingly innocuous remark to cause such a stir.
“We are embarking on a historically unique experiment — that of turning a monoethnic and monocultural democracy into a multiethnic one,” Mounk said.
“I think it will work,” he continued, betraying some doubt in his mind. “But of course it also causes all kinds of disruptions.”
The observation made Mounk an instant target of extremists on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean. “Who agreed to this experiment?” one far-right German website raged. The Daily Stormer, an American neo-Nazi website, attacked Mounk’s Jewish heritage with an allusion to Auschwitz.
That experience inspired Mounk’s new book, “The Great Experiment: Why Diverse Democracies Fall Apart and How They Can Endure,” which warns that countries like the United States are not as stable or immune to violent conflict as they appear.
“The history of diverse societies is grim,” Mounk writes. Surveying the turbulent history of the world’s democracies, he frets that they have “worryingly little experience” with being truly inclusive. Politicians like Donald Trump, Marine Le Pen and Viktor Orban, he says, might be only the vanguard of a backlash against ethnic and religious diversity that could end democracy as we know it.
This is a book that Mounk, a public intellectual and political scientist at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, is uniquely suited to write. Born in Munich to the descendants of Polish Holocaust survivors, educated at the University of Cambridge and Harvard, naturalized as an American citizen, he describes himself as a “Jew with an unplaceable accent” — a self-deprecating nod to his lifelong experience of feeling like a cultural outsider wherever he goes.
Our conversation, edited for length and clarity, is below.
It’s in the title of your book. So tell us, why do diverse democracies fall apart?
It’s tempting to think that it shouldn’t be hard to build a diverse democracy. You know, how hard is it to be tolerant? How hard is it not to hate your neighbor for irrational reasons? But the more I thought about and researched the topic, the more I realized that this is really something very difficult.
Part of the reason for that is human psychology. We have a deeply ingrained instinct to form groups and then discriminate against anybody who does not belong.
We know from history that many of the most brutal crimes and conflicts that humanity has endured were motivated in good part by ethnic, religious, racial and sometimes national distinctions. From the Holocaust to Rwanda, you can find examples from virtually any century of recorded history.
As a small-D democrat, I would love to think that democratic institutions can help to resolve those conflicts, and in certain ways, they can. But in one important respect, democracy actually makes managing diversity harder.
Democracy is always a search for majorities. And so, if I am used to being in the majority, but now you have more kids than I do, or if there are more immigrants coming in that look like you rather than me, there’s this natural fear that I might suddenly lose some of my power. And we can see this in the form of the demographic panic that is motivating so many on the far right in the United States and many other democracies today.
And why do you call it a “great experiment”?
Because there is no precedent for highly ethnically and religiously diverse democracies that actually treat all of their members as equals.
There are many examples of stable, relatively homogeneous democracies, like West Germany after World War II. There are many examples of democracies that have been diverse from their founding, like the United States, which used to give special status to one group and oppress the other — at times horrifically.
As a student of the rise of populism and the crisis of democracy, I’ve been struck over the last couple of decades by the way in which people from Donald Trump to Viktor Orban to Narendra Modi to Marine Le Pen exploit the fears that the great experiment has inspired.
One reason for their success is not only that they have a powerful narrative, but also that the mainstream and the left have failed to counter that pessimism and have instead responded with pessimism of their own, which I think is deeply counterproductive.
Can you expand on that a little?
Let’s take the condition of immigrants in Western Europe and North America.
The majority still come from countries that are much poorer and have much lower educational opportunities. This allows the far right to spin a narrative that immigrants don’t learn the language, aren’t interested in integrating into the host society and won’t ever be economically productive.
The left usually rejects that attribution of blame. But it then goes on to echo many of its main findings, saying that immigrants are excluded from the mainstream of society, that they really are much poorer, that they don’t experience socioeconomic mobility. The only difference is that the left blames those troubles on discrimination or racism and other forms of structural injustice.
Undoubtedly, immigrants — and especially nonwhite immigrants — experience serious forms of discrimination and racism. But when I started writing the book, I looked at the best empirical evidence we have on how immigrants are faring. It turns out that the first generation often does struggle to some extent, but their children and grandchildren rise in the socioeconomic ranks very quickly.
You’re worried about American democracy falling apart. Tell us why.
I sometimes joke that I’m a democracy hipster: I started arguing that democracy was in danger in 2014 and 2015, before it was cool. I was seeing the rise of authoritarian populist candidates and parties in many countries around the world. If they were not in power yet, they were within arm’s reach of it.
The most dangerous thing about them is the anti-pluralism, the claim that they alone represent the people. That drives them to concentrate power in their own hands and refuse to accept electoral defeats.
So in that sense, there’s nothing especially surprising about the way that Trump conducted himself in office, or for that matter, how he has refused to accept his defeat as legitimate. For him, it’s a conceptual impossibility that the majority of his compatriots might actually have chosen President Biden.
When Trump first won election in 2016, I don’t think he recognized the extent to which various institutions reined in his power. If he’s re-elected in 2024, he would be much more determined to concentrate power in his own hands from Day 1. A second Trump presidency would be much more dangerous than the first one was.
What about the second part of the book title, which is how democracies endure? How does the United States transcend the historical pattern that you worry about?
That is a very difficult task. Our country today remains deeply shaped by the extreme forms of injustice that have warped it for centuries. It would be naïve to think we can fully overcome that legacy in a matter of years.
But people sometimes forget that, as recently as 1980, a clear majority of Americans thought that interracial marriage of any kind was immoral. Today, that number is down to the single digits.
More broadly, one of the most dangerous ideas in American politics is the idea that demography is destiny. It’s deeply pernicious. It fuels right-wing extremism and left-wing identity politics, despite the fact that simple demographic categories — white people versus people of color — no longer represent the complex reality of the country.
So, one of the most important tasks of both political parties is to advance the racial depolarization of the American electorate. The country would be much better off if Republicans truly tried to build a multiracial, working-class coalition and if the Democrats didn’t give up on many of the predominantly white states.
I don’t want to live in a country in which I can walk down the street, look at the color of somebody’s skin and know with a high degree of certainty whom they’re voting for.

What to read tonight
My colleague Maya King reports from Georgia on two predominantly Black cities that embody the state’s increasing diversity and leftward shift — and that may soon be represented in Congress by Marjorie Taylor Greene.
Republican candidates in several states are trying to oust conservative governors by harnessing the anti-establishment energy of the Trump base. But in races for governor, Reid Epstein reports, it’s hard to beat the establishment.
Anxious about American politics? You can blame Tiktaalik, a 375-million-year-old fish that has become the subject of memes asking why — just why — it had to flop its four whispery limbs onto land and send humanity down its current path.

Viewfinder
Some of the nation’s most prominent Democrats attended Madeleine Albright’s funeral service on Wednesday at Washington National Cathedral.Credit...Kenny Holston for The New York Times
A farewell to a secretary of state
On Politics regularly features work by Times photographers. Here’s what Kenny Holston told us about capturing the image above:
Since December, I’ve covered three funeral services for The Times: for former Senator Bob Dole, former Senator Harry Reid and, this week, former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright.
Covering a funeral service can often be challenging. My goal during Albright’s service was to capture scenes that would depict the depth of what those in attendance might be feeling while providing clear news coverage for Times readers.
Among the family, friends and former colleagues at Albright’s service were three presidents — Joe Biden, Barack Obama and Bill Clinton — as well as Michelle Obama and Hillary Clinton. It’s rare to have the opportunity to capture images like this. I did my best to compose an image that I felt spoke to the importance of the life Albright lived.

Thanks for reading. We’ll see you on Monday.
— Blake
Is there anything you think we’re missing? Anything you want to see more of? We’d love to hear from you. Email us at onpolitics@nytimes.com.
The New York Times · by Blake Hounshell · April 29, 2022



15. The Army Wants to Change How It Manages Cyber Risk

Excerpts:
The council, which is in final staffing stages and is expected to stand up in the next month, will be chaired by the Army G-3, which focuses on operations and training, and the chief information officer with the G-6 serving as "the gatekeeper to make sure the appropriate issues go into it," the general said.
The move is part of a broader effort to reform its cybersecurity processes and particularly the Army's Risk Management Framework. The Army's Unified Network Plan stresses the need for reform to reduce "repetitive, time-intensive and burdensome processes, and focus on operational processes like penetration testing and continuous monitoring."
To do this, the Army wants to expand its use of "inherited controls and reciprocity among organizations" as part of a shift to what it calls RMF 2.0, which focuses on "active security, defense, and monitoring of critical network and weapons systems," according to the plan.
The Army Wants to Change How It Manages Cyber Risk
The service is working to stand up a risk management council in the coming month.
defenseone.com · by Lauren C. Williams
The Army is in the final stages of creating a council dedicated to improving how it manages technical and operational risks to the network.
"We are realigning how we approach our authorizing officials," said Lt. Gen. John Morrison, the Army's deputy chief of staff, G-6, during a keynote speech at the AFCEA TechNet Cyber conference in Baltimore on April 26.
"For too long, we would allow system authorizing officials who, the second they signed off on putting someone on the network wouldn't see them again, to have a say in what risks they were accepting."
Instead, Morrison said, there will be the Army Risk Management Council that will help deconflict positions between authorizing officials by either making an "Army level decision on what risk is truly acceptable" or one to "apply the appropriate resources to buydown that risk" with personnel, funds, or time.
The council, which is in final staffing stages and is expected to stand up in the next month, will be chaired by the Army G-3, which focuses on operations and training, and the chief information officer with the G-6 serving as "the gatekeeper to make sure the appropriate issues go into it," the general said.
The move is part of a broader effort to reform its cybersecurity processes and particularly the Army's Risk Management Framework. The Army's Unified Network Plan stresses the need for reform to reduce "repetitive, time-intensive and burdensome processes, and focus on operational processes like penetration testing and continuous monitoring."
To do this, the Army wants to expand its use of "inherited controls and reciprocity among organizations" as part of a shift to what it calls RMF 2.0, which focuses on "active security, defense, and monitoring of critical network and weapons systems," according to the plan.
But reform doesn't mean "blowing up bureaucracy" but adjusting the levels of it to do an initial risk assessment, Morrison said.
The goal is to "establish network authorizing officials, who give that final clear to the rear on connecting to the network, the ones that actually have to provide that operational oversight, the ones who actually have to provide recommendations back, on the risk that is really being assumed if something has a vulnerability in it," he said of the new council.
"And then when we identify risk, because intelligence is absolutely critical here, we now have a mechanism to adjudicate that risk at the Army level that will help us move forward much more rapidly than we have in the past."
defenseone.com · by Lauren C. Williams

16. Putin’s War on Truth Warps Reality for All of Us

Conclusion:

The impulse to rewrite history and appeal to glorious myths to rally popular support is not limited to autocrats. But the real danger arises when the official account becomes the only permitted version of history, as is now the case in Russia, China, and North Korea. Though the leaders of these regimes differ in their approach to the past, all three claim that it is their nation that is under threat, and that they must strengthen their military capabilities and ramp up their political control to defend their citizens.

“Whatever the Party holds to be truth is truth,” Winston is told in Orwell’s novel. The leaders of Russia, China, and North Korea take a similar view, and that has consequences for all of us.

Putin’s War on Truth Warps Reality for All of Us
The Russian leader’s invasion of Ukraine is founded on a false retelling of history. He’s not the only strongman revising the past.
The Atlantic · by Katie Stallard · April 30, 2022
Sitting in the basement of a community center in the eastern Ukrainian city of Donetsk, listening to shells being dropped all around us, I watched as a young woman sought to explain the violence to her son. “Who is bombing us?” she asked in Russian, before prompting, “Is it fascists?” The 4-year-old nodded vigorously. “Yes, yes,” he said. “Yes, it is fascists.”
It was January 2015. Russian-backed separatists had taken control of the city nine months earlier, declaring it the capital of their new Donetsk People’s Republic. Yet fighting continued and the truth is, when we were in that basement, none of us knew who was responsible for the shelling: The Ukrainian army was dug in on the city’s outskirts, and separatists were firing from positions close to us.
None, that is, but for the mother I saw speaking with her boy. By “fascists,” she later told me, she was referring to Ukrainian government forces.
If you got your news from Russian state television, which many people in that predominantly Russian-speaking city and about 90 percent of Vladimir Putin’s domestic audience did, there was no doubt about who was to blame: Viewers were told that the conflict in Donetsk and neighboring Luhansk was the fault of a “fascist junta” that had seized power in Kyiv and the Western intelligence agencies who were pulling the strings. Russian media published innumerable stories about how these forces had plunged Ukraine into violence and chaos.
President Vladimir Putin’s announcement this February that he was ordering Russian troops into Ukraine to carry out a “denazification” campaign—an absurd claim, given that, for a start, Ukraine’s leader is Jewish and had relatives killed in the Holocaust—drew on those lies from years prior, lies that I saw warping reality in that basement in 2015. Then, I was Moscow correspondent for Britain’s Sky News. Now I am based in Washington, D.C., for The New Statesman, but the memory of that moment has lingered. Listening to Putin’s speech on the morning of his invasion, when he declared that he was saving innocents from “genocide” and compared his actions to the heroic struggle Russians waged during World War II, my initial response was disbelief. Then I realized I had heard this argument before.
The Russian president is the latest in a long line of dictators to manipulate history and manufacture enemies to rally the population against and secure his own hold on power. Past Soviet leaders have drawn on the same core themes, and I have seen this playbook in action in China and North Korea, where Xi Jinping and Kim Jong Un insist that they too are defending their nations against hostile foreign adversaries.
Yet we must not assume that this autocratic rewriting of history, driven largely by a desire to consolidate power, affects only a dictator’s domestic population (though it does). In fact, these retellings matter far beyond, encompassing expansive territorial ambitions and aggressive foreign policies that threaten neighboring democracies, such as Taiwan, South Korea, Japan—and Ukraine—and whip up nationalist fervor against the United States and its allies.
As Putin is currently demonstrating, these questionable historical narratives in faraway autocracies are a problem for democracies too.
During his “re-education” in Nineteen Eighty-Four, George Orwell’s protagonist, Winston Smith, is asked to repeat the Party’s slogan about the past. “Who controls the past controls the future,” he responds obediently. “Who controls the present controls the past.” Though their individual approaches to controlling that past differ significantly, Putin, Xi, and Kim share an obsession that Orwell would have recognized.
Since he first came to power more than two decades ago, Putin has elevated the memory of the Soviet victory in the Great Patriotic War, as World War II is referred to in Russia, to the status of a national religion and positioned himself as the heir to that legacy, and the tireless defender of Russia and Russians everywhere against their contemporary threats. He calls the Ukrainian leadership “fascists” to remind his compatriots of the enemy they faced, insisting that they are confronting a resurgent menace.
He does not, however, invoke the terror and the strategic blunders that the country’s wartime leader Joseph Stalin committed. Instead, Putin has sealed off the official version of history from scrutiny, passing new laws that make it a criminal offense to challenge the authorities’ account or to question the true scale of Soviet heroism. He has also closed down independent organizations that sought to preserve the memory of Soviet-era atrocities. He is interested in remembering only the aspects of history that serve his current political needs.
In this, Putin shares the same outlook as Xi. They clearly both understand World War II’s wider resonance, and the importance of maintaining firm control over their countries’ histories more broadly. Xi has identified “historical nihilism,” which essentially means anything that challenges the regime’s version of history, as a crucial factor in the Soviet Union’s collapse, and he has made plain that keeping a tight grip on history is essential to ensuring the future of the Chinese Communist Party’s rule.
Like Putin, Xi has passed new laws to protect the party’s version of history from scrutiny and silenced dissenting views. He has introduced new memorial days to commemorate World War II and followed the Russian leader’s example in 2015 by staging a bombastic Victory Day military parade to mark the anniversary of the end of the war, the first time such an event had been held in Beijing, with Putin as his guest of honor. He has also extended the length of the war, moving the start date back to 1931 to incorporate what had previously been treated as a separate regional conflict with Japan. Though the change has a credible historical basis, the longer time frame also serves a useful political function by including the earlier period when Communist troops played a more active role in the fighting.
As Xi tells the story now, China fought first and for the longest of any of the Allied nations in the war. According to this version of history, Mao Zedong and his Communist revolutionaries are the ones who rallied the population to fight back against the foreign aggressors and demonstrated why the party must always be in power, and why China must build up its military strength. I saw this weaponization of history in person while reporting from China: During a visit to a high school in the eastern Chinese province of Anhui in March 2018, 16-year-old Yang Yuzhe—one of an array of thoughtful, genuinely emotional teenagers in a history class I sat in on—told me of how she had thought “China was always a very strong country, but I didn’t know the recent history.” After studying China’s modern history, however, Yang continued, “From then on, I knew that China must be strong again.” Those views are echoed across much of Chinese social media today, as the country’s rivalry with the United States grows and the leadership amplifies the idea that modern China must once again be prepared to fight back against its enemies.
Though China’s version of history is at least credible, if tailored to serve the Communist Party’s needs, across the border in North Korea, the Kim regime relies on an absurd fiction and outright lies. For three-quarters of a century, it has claimed victory in two great wars, insisting that its first president, Kim Il Sung—the grandfather of the current leader, Kim Jong Un—“liberated” the country from Japanese colonial rule at the end of the Second World War, when in fact he was in the Soviet Union at the time. He then apparently secured a subsequent “brilliant victory,” over the United States in the Korean War in 1953, which in this version of the past, the U.S. and South Korea are said to have started.
The Kim family’s fiction dominates daily life in North Korea. On a reporting trip there in 2016, I saw the enormous “Arch of Triumph” built in the heart of the capital, which is engraved with the date “1945” to commemorate the first Kim’s purported victory over Japan. His grandson’s top officials drive around in a fleet of gleaming black Mercedes with the prefix “727” on their license plates to mark the supposed victory over the U.S. on July 27, 1953, the date the Korean War armistice was signed. Even as many of his citizens regularly go hungry in his impoverished and isolated country, Kim has invested ample resources in rebuilding and substantially expanding the country’s war museums. Preserving the regime’s version of the past is evidently more important than providing for the population’s basic needs.
“But how can you stop people remembering things?” asks Winston in Nineteen Eighty-Four. “How can you control memory?” One might well ask the same question of Putin, Xi, and Kim and their own efforts to control the past. They cannot determine what individual citizens think or the individual memories they hold, but they can decide what is presented on the evening news and the information that is available on the internet, and they can make it dangerous to challenge the official line in public.
In Russia, now, it is illegal to call the war in Ukraine a war. Russian schoolchildren are being taught that their soldiers are “defenders of peace” who are “liberating” grateful civilians. Putin quotes from the Bible and invokes the Great Patriotic War to underline the righteousness of his cause as he insists that he is fighting “for a world without Nazism.” There is evidence that this approach is working. The mayor of the Ukrainian town of Melitopol has recounted how, in March, he was abducted by Russian troops who told him they had come to “free Ukraine from Nazis.” Russian soldiers scrawled the words for the children on a missile that hit the eastern Ukrainian city of Kramatorsk—a grim irony, as that very strike killed children among the many evacuees who were waiting for a train. Xi and Kim must be encouraged by how well Putin’s popular support and his propaganda have held up. And that could set a very dangerous precedent, not just for those who live in these societies, but for those on the receiving end of more aggressive policies abroad—people who live in Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, and the countries that surround the South China Sea.
The impulse to rewrite history and appeal to glorious myths to rally popular support is not limited to autocrats. But the real danger arises when the official account becomes the only permitted version of history, as is now the case in Russia, China, and North Korea. Though the leaders of these regimes differ in their approach to the past, all three claim that it is their nation that is under threat, and that they must strengthen their military capabilities and ramp up their political control to defend their citizens.
“Whatever the Party holds to be truth is truth,” Winston is told in Orwell’s novel. The leaders of Russia, China, and North Korea take a similar view, and that has consequences for all of us.
The Atlantic · by Katie Stallard · April 30, 2022



17. Ukrainian Special Forces Kill With Extreme Prejudice Behind Enemy Lines

Can (or will) we learn from this? A new kind of combined arms: cyber, drones. and SOF.

Lt Col Yaroslav Honchar is a Ukrainian ex-soldier turned IT marketing consultant turned current soldier. He returned to uniform in 2014 after the Russian invasion of Crimea in 2014. The unit he commands, Aerorozvidka, specializes in aerial surveillance, drone warfare, and cybersecurity. They have been involved in numerous successful nighttime raids during the current conflict with Russia. Their motto should be “Death in the Dark.” Feel free to use that, Colonel Honchar.
It was Honchar’s troops partnering with 30 Ukrainian Special Forces operators that took out the infamous 40km long column of Russian trucks that was making its way slowly to the capital city of Kyiv in late February. The showdown was classic Davis vs. Goliath.
Under cover of darkness, the operators on their quads were able to approach the convoy from the front and behind the tree line on either side of the road. They were well equipped with night vision goggles, sniper rifles, and remotely detonated mines such as the Claymore. Real-time aerial reconnaissance data was fed to them by the Aerorozvidka drone operators. The drones were equipped with thermal imaging cameras and were also able to drop small 1.5kg bombs on target precisely.

Ukrainian Special Forces Kill With Extreme Prejudice Behind Enemy Lines
14 hours ago


A Ukrainian Special Forces soldier stands at the Gostomel airfield near Kyiv. The unit has reportedly inflicted heavy losses upon Russian troops. Image Credit: thenationalnews.com

Under Cover of the Night
Ukrainian Special Forces operating behind enemy lines have been smashing supply columns and hobbling the Russian offensive for two months now. Additionally, conventional Ukrainian troops’ ability to launch rapid counterattacks after Russians take offensive actions proves effective in buying time for the country to strengthen its forces and retake lost ground.
Ukrainian SF soldiers, under cover of darkness, patrol the streets of Kharkiv. Image Credit: Agence France-Presse (AFP)
By contrast, significant casualties have depleted Russia’s Spetsnaz Special Forces, whose expertise would take considerable time to replace and rebuild. In the early day of the war, President Putin sent hundreds of helicopter-borne Spetsnaz troops to try to assault and seize a lightly defended airfield outside of Kyiv.
What they did not do apparently was a last-minute recon of the target just before the raid. Had they done so, they would have seen that Ukraine had obstructed the runway to prevent large fixed-wing aircraft from landing and that a sizeable Ukrainian force including armored vehicles was positioned just outside the airport waiting for them.
The result was a debacle for Russian Special Operations. Their Mi-8 assault helicopters were on the way to attack Hostomel airfield when several were knocked out of the sky. Once the Russians made it to the ground, they took heavy losses through effective artillery fire and with the blocked runway were unable to bring in supplies and reinforcements. When the Ukrainians counterattacked, the Spetnaz troops were forced to flee into the woods surrounding the airport to survive.
Russia was stunned and took their first black eye of the war. It set the stage for things to come.
Ukrainian Special Forces and a US Air Force JTAC (Joint Terminal Attack Controller) communicate to a helicopter for exfiltration during a raid at Exercise Combined Resolve 14 at Hohenfels, Germany, September 24, 2020. Photo by Sgt. Patrik Orcutt
Trained by the Best of the Best
It’s no secret that Ukraine’s specialist troops have been extensively trained over the years by British and US Special Forces. Since the Russian invasion, they have extensively honed their skills and have created havoc on the battlefield, especially when it comes to taking out large columns of vulnerable Russian vehicles.
One of many kilometers long Russian convoys in the early days of the war going nowhere fast. Image credit: en.as.com
Combined Arms Operation
Lt Col Yaroslav Honchar is a Ukrainian ex-soldier turned IT marketing consultant turned current soldier. He returned to uniform in 2014 after the Russian invasion of Crimea in 2014. The unit he commands, Aerorozvidka, specializes in aerial surveillance, drone warfare, and cybersecurity. They have been involved in numerous successful nighttime raids during the current conflict with Russia. Their motto should be “Death in the Dark.” Feel free to use that, Colonel Honchar.

It was Honchar’s troops partnering with 30 Ukrainian Special Forces operators that took out the infamous 40km long column of Russian trucks that was making its way slowly to the capital city of Kyiv in late February. The showdown was classic Davis vs. Goliath.
Under cover of darkness, the operators on their quads were able to approach the convoy from the front and behind the tree line on either side of the road. They were well equipped with night vision goggles, sniper rifles, and remotely detonated mines such as the Claymore. Real-time aerial reconnaissance data was fed to them by the Aerorozvidka drone operators. The drones were equipped with thermal imaging cameras and were also able to drop small 1.5kg bombs on target precisely.
The combined efforts of this small and nimble force stopped hundreds of Russian vehicles dead in their tracks. Here is what Colonel Honchar had to say about the operation:
“This one little unit in the night destroyed two or three vehicles at the head of this convoy, and after that it was stuck. They stayed there two more nights, and [destroyed] many vehicles.”
It was a brilliant plan; the convoy was quickly crippled.
Colonel Honchar is quite proud of their accomplishment. “The first echelon of the Russian force was stuck without heat, without oil, without bombs, and without gas. And it all happened because of the work of 30 people,” he said.
The Ukrainian Special Forces are indeed quiet professionals and are among the finest of the unsung heroes of this war.
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ABOUT GUY MCCARDLE

Guy McCardle is a sixteen-year veteran of the United States Army and most recently served as a Medical Operations Officer during OIF I and OIF II. He holds a degree in Biology from Washington & Jefferson College and is a graduate of the US Army Academy of Health Sciences. Guy has been a contributing writer to Apple News, Business Insider, International Business Times, and Medical Daily, among others. He makes his home in DeLand, Florida where he lives with his wife, sons, and an Olde English Bulldogge puppy.
18. The Three Lifelines of a Planner


ACADEMIC JOURNALS | April 1, 2022
The Three Lifelines of a Planner
By LTC Daniel Sukman and Teresa Dicks, DM
A great listener – that was my talent!—Regis Philbin
In the summer of 1999, Regis Philbin stormed the game show world with the premiere of Who Wants to Be a Millionaire. The show invited contestants to play the game by inviting them to the hot seat. A contestant answers a series of questions that increase in difficulty as the rewards for a correct answer increase. Contestants who answer all fifteen questions correctly win a million dollars. The seat lived up to its name quite literally with all the lights, but in a more figurative sense, its heat came from the attention of millions of viewers. Leading a planning group is something like a hot seat—lots of viewers hanging on your answers.

The game created drama by offering contestants the ability to use lifelines of three varieties. A contestant could phone a friend, poll the audience, or ask for a 50:50, where two of the four multiple-choice answers are removed, leaving one of the two remaining choices as the correct answer. Using a lifeline increased a contestant’s odds of success. While, admittedly, running a planning team at the operational and strategic echelons isn’t the same as appearing on a network primetime television show, leadership positions are in something of a hot seat. Leaders don’t always have the answers, but they do have lifelines.

Ask the Audience: One of the most straightforward tools to employ as a planning team lead is simply asking members of the planning team for their informed opinions on a topic. However, as leaders plan at the operational and strategic levels, individuals tend to have disparate and conflicting opinions of what the right answer might be. Just as in the game show, while the majority is often right, as the questions become more difficult the person in the hot seat needs to guard against presuming the majority is right. Planning leads should take appropriate measures when polling the staff or other partners to ensure the solution doesn’t always come from the loudest or most ardent voice in the room. Red Team techniques, such as dot voting or circle of voices, can ensure that all team members have their voices heard. As one speaker noted, asking the audience offers the opportunity to ensure communication is effective. “If the message is sent but not yet received or not interpreted, not understood that presents its own set of challenges,” and asking direct questions offers the opportunity to require reciprocity in terms of communication.

Planning teams at the operational and strategic echelons often have diverse perspectives on approaching and solving a problem. When polling the group, considering how other partners or agencies such as State, USAID, Treasury, or Homeland Defense think about a problem can guide the planning team leader to the best solution. At a minimum, asking for their respective thoughts broadens and enriches the dialogue. Of course, in the hot seat, no matter the poll result, the planning team lead is responsible for deciding on the final answer.

Phone a Friend: Occasionally, the subject matter expert isn’t in the room. The ability to phone a friend to seek advice comes from years, if not decades of reputation building and relationship forming. Planning team leads should already have their own informal network of peers they can call from when sitting in the hot seat. Contestants in the hot seat called people they knew and trusted: parents, siblings, long term friends. For military planning team leads the relationships might be familial, but more likely they trace to time as cadet in an academy or ROTC or the officer basic course. Deep trust and deep relationships are forged in the crucible of the work in the profession, such as on a military staff as a junior officer. Further, before jumping into the hot seat, officers should assess whether they have generated the social capital throughout their career and leverage it when in the hot seat. Even more so, “it’s amazing how sometimes somebody has a piece of information,” and just reaching out to them builds a more complete understanding.

More than seeking advice from a peer, there are times when a planning team lead should pick up the phone and ask for advice from higher or lower levels. It can be difficult to use this lifeline, but eventually leaders realize that everyone else is just as clueless. Phoning the point of contact (POC) on the bottom of a joint staff PLANORD can reduce much of the fog and friction within a planning effort. Talking through the problem and understanding the thoughts behind higher-level orders is paramount to successful planning. On a similar note, subject matter experts often reside in lower planning echelons. Planners on a combatant command planning team should have navy, army, air, and space component planners and other civilian agency partners on speed dial to help develop and write plans and orders for operations in the maritime domain, for instance. Often, a lower echelon can tell you exactly what you need to tell them. Beyond some of the obvious organizational echelons, one speaker noted that their planning team had a list of specific experts. “Those SMEs you have to pull in as needed are developed through networking early on, and having your list of SMEs to go through by division and specialty. They will make it that much easier when you have to pull someone in to adjust. We kept a running list of points of contact for each.”
Calling a friend doesn’t always mean another uniformed officer. Often, the problems planning teams face need other government agencies involved to address the problem. Phoning a friend might be speaking to a colleague in the State Department to confirm overflight and transit rights. Other times it might be talking to a contact at USAID to coordinate airlift to deliver and distribute humanitarian aid. As officers rise in rank, responsibility, and echelon, creating and cultivating relationships outside of the military may become even more useful than the relationships with those in uniform. And lawyers, keep them close. As one speaker noted: “Invite your [command] lawyers. Pretty, pretty savvy people, and you will learn some lessons along the way in terms of framing the deliverable.”

50:50: The ability of a planning team lead to approach senior leaders and have candid discussions on the issues at hand is a key personal skill. Approaching a senior leader, often a flag officer, to receive guidance and narrow options is tantamount to the 50:50 in the gameshow. Often, a senior leader can help by providing refined direction, eliminating some of the options a planning team had under consideration. Narrowing options saves time and leaves the staff to focus on other feasible options or courses of action more likely to pass muster because of greater refinement and detail. Planning team leads should not avoid seeking guidance from senior leaders nor consider it a weakness. Unlike the gameshow, the answers are not facts, fixed and predetermined. Planning at the operational and strategic level is a dynamic activity, and planning team leads must incessantly seek out the most current and relevant guidance.

Like phoning a friend and asking the audience, discussing options with civilian counterparts can help discern which options are feasible and which options should be disposed of. State Department representatives can tell a planner if other nations will support a COA or exercise veto power by denying specific authorities, and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) representative can help predict the capabilities local authorities will need to assist the public following a national disaster. Under the right circumstances the 50:50 may be asking leadership to refine guidance or intervene. A speaker recalled a specific instance that new JPGs might have resisted out of fear of appearing incompetent or inadequate. The speaker encouraged leaders to overcome their fear, “push that up if it’s a high enough priority. We actually drafted a letter, sent it all the way through to the Pentagon. It went all the way up to the NSC. We got a directive directing interagency support.”

Win the Million Dollars: While leading a planning team won’t make someone rich, it will lead to high pressure situations with lots of pressure akin to the hot seat. More often than not, it involves leading peers, civilians from other agencies, and—at times—leaders senior in rank. Accordingly, leading planning teams at the operational and strategic levels necessitates employing different leadership skills. Planning team leads must apply the collective wisdom of their planning team, possess the ability to seek out the right experts, and facilitate dialog with senior leaders across the government. Indeed, planning team leaders should understand that lifelines are crucial to success. Even though the million dollars eludes those who pursue a career of service, it does offer the chance to use lifelines more than once.
The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not reflect the official policy or position of Joint Forces Staff College, National Defense University, the Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government.
Download the PDF version: click here


19. How the ‘jack-in-the-box’ flaw dooms some Russian tanks


How the ‘jack-in-the-box’ flaw dooms some Russian tanks
By Sammy Westfall and 
Today at 9:00 a.m. EDT|Updated today at 6:09 p.m. EDT

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A destroyed Russian T-72 tank in Ukraine's Kyiv region on April 1. (Oleksandr Klymenko/Reuters)
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The sight of Russian tank turrets, blown off and lying in ruin along Ukrainian roads, points to a tank design issue known as the “jack-in-the-box” flaw.
The fault is related to the way many Russian tanks hold and load ammunition. In these tanks, including the T-72, the Soviet-designed vehicle that has seen wide use in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, shells are all placed in a ring within the turret. When an enemy shot hits the right spot, the ring of ammunition can quickly “cook off” and ignite a chain reaction, blasting the turret off the tank’s hull in a lethal blow.
Sitting on a powder keg: The T-72 tank’s fatal flaw
Other tanks on the modern battlefield generally store their ammunition away from the crew, behind armored walls. The Russian T-72 main battle tank’s ammunition sits in a carousel-style automatic loader directly beneath the main turret and members of the crew.
T-72 (Russia, Ukraine)
Tank commander
Gunner
Driver
If a penetrating hit on the tank’s relatively thin side armor detonates one of these rounds, the explosion can set off
a chain reaction, killing the crew and destroying the tank.
Leopard 2 (Germany)
M1 Abrams (United States)
Sources: “M1 Abrams vs. T-72 Ural” by Stephen Zaloga (Osprey Publishing, 2009); “Leopard 2 Main Battle Tank 1979–1998”
by Uwe Schnellbacher and Michael Jerchel (Osprey Publishing, 1998); Federation of American Scientists
WILLIAM NEFF/THE WASHINGTON POST
“For a Russian crew, if the ammo storage compartment is hit, everyone is dead,” said Robert E. Hamilton, a professor at the U.S. Army War College, adding that the force of the explosion can “instantaneously vaporize” the crew. “All those rounds — around 40 depending on if they’re carrying a full load or not — are all going to cook off, and everyone is going to be dead.”
British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace this week estimated that Russia has lost at least 530 tanks — destroyed or captured — since it invaded Ukraine in February.
“What we are witnessing now is Ukrainians taking advantage of the tank flaw,” said Samuel Bendett, an adviser at the Center for Naval Analyses, a federally funded nonprofit research institute. Ukraine’s Western allies have provided antitank weapons at high volume.
Ukraine, too, has been using Russian-made T-72 variants, which face the same issue. But Russia’s invasion has relied on the large-scale deployment of tanks, and Ukraine has been able to fight back better than expected.
The flaw speaks to a broader difference in approaches between Western militaries and Russia’s, analysts say.
“American tanks for a long time have prioritized crew survivability in a way that Russian tanks just haven’t,” said Hamilton. “It’s really just a difference in the design of the ammo storage compartment and a difference in prioritization.”
Ammunition in most Western tanks can be kept under the turret floor, protected by the heavy hull — or in the back of the turret, said Hamilton. While a turret-placed ammunition storage compartment is potentially vulnerable to a hit, built-in features can prevent the same level of decapitating devastation seen in the case of the T-72.
Even the early versions of the American M1 Abrams tanks in the 1980s were fitted with tough blast doors separating the crew inside from the stored ammunition. These tanks have a crew of four, including a loader who opens the ballistic door manually. These were designed to be stronger than the top armor, so that if ammunition is cooked off, the explosion would be channeled upward through blowout panels, rather than into the crew compartment, Hamilton said.
On the other hand, Russian tanks rely on mechanical automatic loaders, allowing them to be manned by a team of three.
The design of Russian tanks prioritizes rate of fire, firepower, a low profile, speed and maneuverability vs. overall survivability, said Hamilton. Russian tanks tend to be lighter and simpler, and have thinner, less-advanced armor than Western tanks. The design vulnerability was probably “just cheaper and lighter,” Hamilton said.
Newer Russian models have come out since the T-72, which was produced in the 1970s by the Soviet Union. One of them, the T-14 Armata, has been described as a sophisticated battlefield game-changer since it debuted at a 2015 military parade. But the Armatas have not yet seen much use outside parades. Newer variants of the T-72 have come with greater tank protections, Bendett said, but the prevailing principle has been the same: a three-person crew with a lower profile, and shells in a circle within the turret.
For the U.S. military, Hamilton said, “if the tank is destroyed and the crew survives, you can make another tank more quickly than you can train another crew.”
For Russia, “the people are as expendable as the machine,” he said. “The Russians have known about this for 31 years — you have to say they’ve just chosen not to deal with it.”
Claire Parker contributed to this report.

20. Use of Army’s prepositioned ‘afloat’ equipment is expected to grow in the Pacific

The floating "iron mountain." Can we protect these ships? Will they be there when we need them?

Use of Army’s prepositioned ‘afloat’ equipment is expected to grow in the Pacific
Stars and Stripes · by Wyatt Olson · April 18, 2022
Vehicles assigned to the 402nd Army Field Support Brigade are loaded onto the USNS Red Cloud at Subic Bay, Philippines, April 11, 2022. (Shelia Cooper/U.S. Army)

FORT SHAFTER, Hawaii – Army leaders in the Pacific are lauding the inaugural use of floating prepositioned supplies and equipment for a pair of recently completed exercises in the Philippines as a significant step forward in strategic agility.
Vehicles and supplies were delivered aboard the Military Sealift Command’s USNS Red Cloud and offloaded at Subic Bay for Hawaii-based soldiers who participated in the back-to-back exercises Salaknib and Balikatan March 5 to April 8.
This week the equipment was reloaded onto the ship, which is now headed back to Hawaii.
“I think the significance of the use of Army prepositioned stocks to extend our operational and strategic reach in the region is substantial,” Gen. Charles Flynn, commander of U.S. Army Pacific, said during an interview at his headquarters in Fort Shafter on Wednesday.
Employing land-based prepositioned stocks has been routine in Europe, the Middle East, Japan and South Korea, but prepositioned “afloat” stock has been underutilized, particularly in the Pacific, he said.
“To be able to rapidly offload that equipment, issue it to a unit, have the unit go out and conduct training, and then be able to collapse that equipment back to, in this case, the port, and then be able to reload that on those vessels is really a demonstration of our strategic agility,” Flynn said.
The Army will continue to adjust and refine the use of floating prepositioned stocks in this region, Maj. Gen. David Wilson, commander of the 8th Theater Sustainment Command, said at his Fort Shafter headquarters on Tuesday.
“This is an evolution,” said Wilson, who heads the Indo-Pacific theater’s top Army logistics command that is tasked with enabling and prolonging the operational reach needed by combatant commanders.
“What we have found is that every operation we conduct west of the international dateline is an opportunity for us to conduct strategic rehearsal and strategic movement,” he said.
Thus, if offloading prepositioned equipment were needed during a time of crisis or conflict, the Army is now gaining an understanding of the “time and tempo” required for the task, Wilson said.
“And that's invaluable,” he said. “I mean, now you’re actually operating on the terrain in which you may have to fight.”
That cannot truly be replicated even in the Army’s massive training centers at Fort Irwin, Calif., and Fort Polk, La., he said.
On the other hand, this inaugural down offloading of prepositioned afloat stock faced no adversary attempting to prevent it, Wilson said.
“We have to be able to account for that in our planning,’ he said. “As we can build subsequent exercises, simulations and war games, we will be able to do that and put a finer point on it.”
Wilson has been on a quest to expand the logistics “toolbox” for U.S. Indo-Pacific Command since taking the reins of the sustainment command in June 2020.
Within weeks he ordered up a theater sustainment posture review, which he said to his knowledge had not been done before.
“What drove me to that was sitting and looking at a map when taking my initial counseling from [then-commander of U.S. Army Pacific Gen. Joseph LaCamera] when I assumed command,” Wilson said. “He described how he saw operations occurring during times [of conflict] out here in the Pacific.”
The posture review, completed in December 2020, concluded that while no military service in the Indo-Pacific is advantaged to single-handedly handle sustainment, “we do have enough collectively as a joint force to solve the problems,” Wilson said.
With the Indo-Pacific’s “tyranny of distance” dilemma, sustaining the joint force requires close collaboration with partner nations throughout the region, he said.
“That investment in or partners and allies is an investment in us being able to execute our requirements west of the international dateline during crisis or conflict,” he said.
Stars and Stripes · by Wyatt Olson · April 18, 2022



21. Nancy Pelosi leads U.S. delegation to Kyiv and meets with Ukraine's president



Nancy Pelosi leads U.S. delegation to Kyiv and meets with Ukraine's president
Axios · by Sophia Cai · May 1, 2022
Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) met with Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv, per a Twitter post Sunday from the Ukrainian president showing the U.S. house speaker visiting Ukraine's capital.
Why it matters: Pelosi's visit is a reflection of the growing pressure for the U.S. to send high-level officials to Kyiv, after recent visits by U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson and the prime ministers of Spain and Denmark.
  • It comes less than a week after Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin III visited Ukraine.
What we're watching: The trip, which was not previously announced, also includes House Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Gregory Meeks (D-N.Y.), House Intelligence Committee Chair Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), House Rules Committee Chair Jim McGovern (D-Mass.)and Reps. Jason Crow (D-Colo.), , Barbara Lee (D-Calif.), and Bill Keating (D-Mass.).
  • During the meeting, Zelensky conveyed the clear need for continued security, economic and humanitarian assistance from the U.S. and the congressional delegation assured him that additional American support is on its way, according to Pelosi's office.
What they're saying: "Your fight is a fight for everyone. So our commitment is to be here for you until the fight is done," Pelosi said.
  • 'The United States is a leader in Ukraine’s strong support in the fight against Russian aggression. Thank you for helping to protect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of our state!" Zelenksy said.
Between the lines: The White House has ruled out sending President Biden, citing security concerns.
What's next: "Our delegation will now continue our travels in Poland, where we will meet with President Andrzej Duda and senior officials. We look forward to thanking our Polish allies for their dedication and humanitarian efforts," Pelosi said in a statement early Sunday.
Axios · by Sophia Cai · May 1, 2022

22. Nancy Pelosi Visits Ukraine’s President Zelensky in Kyiv


Photos at the link: https://www.wsj.com/articles/nancy-pelosi-visits-ukraine-president-zelensky-in-kyiv-11651392666?utm

Good statements but I just listened to her on TV in Poland and she emphasized Ukrainian victory.

Excerpts:

“Our delegation traveled to Kyiv to send an unmistakable and resounding message to the entire world: America stands firmly with Ukraine,” Mrs. Pelosi and the members of Congress who traveled with her said in a statement released after their trip. They added that Mr. Zelensky had conveyed a clear need for continued U.S. security, economic and humanitarian assistance in Ukraine’s fight to repel the Russian advance.
“I am thankful to you for this signal of strong support for Ukraine,” Mr. Zelensky said in a video from their meeting posted to his official Telegram channel on Sunday.
“We believe we are visiting you to say thank you for your fight for freedom,” Mrs. Pelosi told him in video footage of the meeting. “Your fight is a fight for everyone, and our commitment is to be there for you until the fight is done.”
Nancy Pelosi Visits Ukraine’s President Zelensky in Kyiv
Congressional trip comes as Russia’s attempted military push into Ukraine’s east is stalling
By Matthew LuxmooreFollow
May. 1, 2022 4:11 am ET

KYIV, Ukraine—House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and a delegation of U.S. lawmakers met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv on Saturday night, as Russia’s military advance stalled in Ukraine’s east.
“Our delegation traveled to Kyiv to send an unmistakable and resounding message to the entire world: America stands firmly with Ukraine,” Mrs. Pelosi and the members of Congress who traveled with her said in a statement released after their trip. They added that Mr. Zelensky had conveyed a clear need for continued U.S. security, economic and humanitarian assistance in Ukraine’s fight to repel the Russian advance.
“I am thankful to you for this signal of strong support for Ukraine,” Mr. Zelensky said in a video from their meeting posted to his official Telegram channel on Sunday.
“We believe we are visiting you to say thank you for your fight for freedom,” Mrs. Pelosi told him in video footage of the meeting. “Your fight is a fight for everyone, and our commitment is to be there for you until the fight is done.”

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky greeted U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on Saturday before their meeting in Kyiv.
PHOTO: UKRAINIAN PRESIDENTIAL PRESS SER/VIA REUTERS
Other members of the delegation included congressional representatives Gregory Meeks, Adam Schiff, Barbara Lee, Bill Keating, Jason Crow and Jim McGovern.
The show of support, days after U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin met with Mr. Zelensky in the Ukrainian capital, comes amid an intensified Russian push to capture swaths of Ukraine’s east.
Russia’s Defense Ministry said in a briefing on Saturday evening that it had downed a Ukrainian Su-25 jet fighter in the Kherson region and two Ukrainian drones flying over territory occupied by Russian-backed separatists in the Donetsk region.
Ukrainian media reports said that another Russian general, Andrei Simonov, was killed by Ukrainian artillery fire near the city of Izyum during Moscow’s stuttering campaign in the east. That couldn’t be independently confirmed.

A bus carried evacuees out of Lyman, a city in the eastern Donetsk region, on Saturday.
PHOTO: EVGENIY MALOLETKA/ASSOCIATED PRESS

Ukrainian soldiers rode in the back of a truck Saturday after fighting on the front line near the eastern city of Kramatorsk.
PHOTO: YASUYOSHI CHIBA/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES
In his video address to the nation on Saturday evening, Mr. Zelensky said Russia was losing military hardware and arms at a rate that would seriously hinder its advance in Ukraine’s east. He said Ukrainian forces had destroyed more than 1,000 Russian tanks, almost 2,500 armored personnel carriers and close to 200 Russian planes.
“Yes, they still have missiles to strike at our territory,” he added. “But this war has already weakened Russia so much that they have to plan even less military equipment for the parade in Moscow,” he said, referring to the planned World War II Victory Day commemorations in the Russian capital on May 9.
Russian state media and pro-Kremlin social media channels have sought to spin the evidence of a stalled Russian push in Ukraine. Russian lawmaker Oleg Matveichev said on Sunday that President Vladimir Putin, who has repeatedly insisted that Russia’s military campaign is going according to plan, is deliberately creating the illusion of a Russian defeat to catch Ukraine and its Western backers off guard when the Russian military steps up its attack.
“Like a ropewalker he will walk along the edge, keeping the situation such that the Ukrainians and the West believe that Russia is on the verge of collapse,” Mr. Matveichev said in a broadcast on his YouTube channel. “Putin wants to create the sense that he has some weak spots, that he has almost lost, and then suddenly punch you in the gut.”
The developments came after about two dozen civilians were evacuated Saturday from the besieged steel plant in Mariupol.
On Saturday afternoon the Mariupol city council announced plans for an evacuation of residents from the occupied city. Russian state media reported on Saturday that a group of 25 civilians including six children were evacuated from the Azovstal plant. An Azov battalion fighter holed up in the plant said 20 civilians had been successfully evacuated, but added that many more wounded soldiers needed immediate medical assistance and called for further humanitarian corridors.
Russian media had also shown videos of vehicles from the United Nations and the International Committee of the Red Cross preparing for civilian evacuations in Mariupol.
Write to Matthew Luxmoore at Matthew.Luxmoore@wsj.com

23. Japan to revisit its National Defense Program as threats from China, Russia, N Korea soars

Excerpt:

It is worth mentioning Japan has been mulling changing its national defence policy ever since North Korea started bolstering its nuclear arsenal despite continuous warnings from the US defence ministry. Recently, Korea fired a suspected ballistic missile toward the sea on March 25. According to South Korean military officials, the firing was apparently meant to extend its barrage of weapons trials that may culminate with a flight of its biggest-yet intercontinental ballistic missile.

Japan to revisit its National Defense Program as threats from China, Russia, N Korea soars


Last Updated: 1st May, 2022 09:52 IST
Japan To Revisit Its National Defense Program As Threats From China, Russia, N Korea Soars
Amid Russia's aggression against Ukraine and North Korea's intention to bolster its nuclear arsenal, Japan will review its defence policy by the end of this yr.
Written By

Image: AP


Amid Russia's aggression against Ukraine and North Korea's intention to bolster its nuclear arsenal, Japan will review its defence policy by the end of this year, Kyodo News reported on Sunday. According to the reports, the idea of partially classifying Japan's national defence guidelines is being floated earlier last month to deal with inflated regional security threats by China and Russia. Citing the sources in the defence department, the media report said Japan is revising its National Defense Program Guidelines-- a policy for the next ten years.
It said the country would co-ordinate with the United States to enable the country to deal with the threats posed by Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korea's Supreme leader Kim Jong-un. The sources told Kyodo News that the new policy, which is also considered a politically sensitive issue in Japan, will decide "whether Japan can acquire capabilities to attack enemy bases in counterstrike". Currently, Japan has an exclusively-defence oriented policy under the war-renouncing constitution.
Earlier last month, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party as well as some of the security and diplomacy experts prepared a draft proposal. As per the proposal, the country will introduce the enemy base strike capability that will not just target enemy missile bases but also disable their command and control systems. However, it remains a politically sensitive matter in the country as Japan’s constitution limits the country to only self-defence and prohibits preemptive military actions. Any changes would mean an amendment to the 75-year-old constitution.
Why Japan is in hurry to change its defence policies?
It is worth mentioning Japan has been mulling changing its national defence policy ever since North Korea started bolstering its nuclear arsenal despite continuous warnings from the US defence ministry. Recently, Korea fired a suspected ballistic missile toward the sea on March 25. According to South Korean military officials, the firing was apparently meant to extend its barrage of weapons trials that may culminate with a flight of its biggest-yet intercontinental ballistic missile.
Apart from North Korea, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war has also forced Japan to ponder over its current defence strategy. Besides, China has also been intensifying its maritime assertiveness in the East and South China seas, including the Japanese-controlled, Chinese-claimed Senkaku Islands. The Communist government also bolstered its aggression against Taiwan-- a self-ruled democratic island that Beijing regards as its territory.
Image: AP

Tags: JapanChinaRussia
First Published: 1st May, 2022 09:52 IST


24. Ukraine war: Resistance to Russian rouble in Kherson

There should be no questions as to Russian intent in Putin's War. To occupy, control, and absorb, Ukrainian territory and the population. Directing the currency to be used is one of the many population and resources control measures Russia will try to impose as an occupation force.

 And there should be no misunderstanding: Ukraine will resist.


Ukraine war: Resistance to Russian rouble in Kherson
BBC · by Menu
By Caroline Davies
BBC News, Odesa
Published
34 minutes ago

The Russian rouble will be used in Kherson from Sunday, according to Russia-backed forces that have taken control of the southern Ukrainian city.
However, Kherson's Ukrainian mayor, Ihor Kolykhaiev, who has now been overthrown by Russian authorities, has said that he doesn't believe this will be possible while the only working banking system in the region is Ukrainian, not Russian.
Despite being occupied for 60 days, many residents are trying to find small ways to defy the Russian forces - like exchanging any roubles they receive back into Ukraine's currency, the hryvnia.
But there are very few ways to safely snub the Russian army when it occupies your streets.
Z signs - a Russian pro-war symbol - have appeared around the city. Russian flags hang above Kherson's government buildings. Ukrainian TV has been mostly cut off, changed to Russian news. Russian soldiers drive armoured vehicles through the city centre, between a network of check points.
Now, changing the region's currency is yet another bid to erase Ukrainian identity from the city.
"I think most people will leave here if the rouble is introduced," Olga, who didn't want to use her real name, told me from inside Kherson.
"At the moment there are still currency exchanges operating in the city. If I am paid in roubles, I think I will just go and exchange it for hryvnia, I think others will too. It's just a small act of protest."
Olga is not the only one with this plan. Ukrainian news reports have said that some pensions have been handed out in roubles around Kherson, but that people have already exchanged it back into Ukrainian hryvnia.
Life in Kherson has become increasingly difficult. Many now feel nervous about even speaking to a journalist. When we reach Olga and ask how she is feeling, she sighs.
"I'm alive and I have food," she says.
Around 40% of the population have fled in the two months since this key, strategic city was taken by Russia, according to the mayor.
Many residents tell us about their struggle to pay for what few goods there are, as supermarket shelves lie empty. They say that shops, restaurants and businesses have closed and parts of the economy have ground to a halt, cut off from much of the world.
Earlier this week, Russian forces appointed a new administration in Kherson because Mr Kolykhaiev was "not cooperating" with the occupied forces, according to Russian state news agency Ria.
Image caption,
The Ukrainian mayor of Kherson, Ihor Kolykhaiev, has now been replaced with a Russian administration
Speaking on video call from somewhere in the region, with piles of binders and a toy camouflage jeep sitting on shelves behind him, Mr Kolykhaiev says he has not stopped working. He is sceptical of whether Russia can successfully introduce the rouble.
"I have no confirmation that it's been introduced," he says. "When can it appear? When the treasury and the banking system of Ukraine will stop working? Anything can happen under occupation, I can't get into Russia's head to find out what they are thinking. If they do try to introduce the rouble zone here, we would be plunged back into 1992 - before Ukraine gained its independence."
Ukrainian authorities had suggested that Russia could try to hold a referendum in the region on 1 May, asking voters whether they want independence from Ukraine. Any attempt to do this would be seen as a way to legitimise Russia's intervention, suggesting that residents no longer want to be part of Ukraine and painting Russia as liberators.
Russia held a referendum in Crimea after Moscow annexed it in 2014, and also in the Russian-backed separatist areas of Donetsk and Luhansk. Russia has denied plans to hold a vote in Kherson, and for now residents in the city say they've seen no sign of it.
Rumours swirl on social media channels about what could happen. Some Ukrainians are worried that Russia will simply fake the result and use records of their identity documents - which they fear the Russians could gain access to in the administrative buildings they now occupy - to back it up.
"I'm not sure they even need the population here to know that there is a referendum," says Olga. "I guess they can do it without us. Maybe I already voted."
Routes to safety shut off
Several people inside Kherson told us that the routes out to safer parts of Ukraine have now been shut altogether. The only road available is through Crimea which means travelling into Russian territory, something several Ukrainians told us they would not be prepared to do.
Maxim felt this was his only route to safety. He didn't want his name to be used as his family are still inside the city. At the border he was subject to a long interrogation as a security guard inspected his body for tattoos.
"It was like a film," he said. "You sit on a suitcase under the scorching sun to be interrogated. I would never have imagined I would have to go through this. I was really horrified, because it's scary - people with machine guns are walking past you."
His favourite artist almost got him into difficulties.
"They were asking me the same questions on repeat," he says. "I have a David Bowie lightning tattoo and they asked me 'Is that Azov?'" The Azov battalion are a controversial regiment that was originally a far-right group later incorporated into Ukraine's National Guard.
Image caption,
Many supermarket shelves in Kherson are empty
Maxim says that many of the cars in the queue had Kherson number plates. He has since safely travelled through Georgia and on to Europe.
"Reaching Georgia was like being released from jail," he says. "You feel like you've got your human rights back."
For those still in Kherson there are deep fears about the future.
"I am afraid of a humanitarian catastrophe," says Mr Kolykhaiev. "I am worried for the people who are still in the city today. They are all hostages.
"It's like we started with 100 litres of petrol in the car tank and we are driving until the gas runs out. I want to calculate how long we can keep driving. How long can we carry the city?"

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25. Museum's ancient gold among thousands of artifacts looted by Russia, Ukrainian officials say


Museum's ancient gold among thousands of artifacts looted by Russia, Ukrainian officials say
Axios · by Rebecca Falconer · May 1, 2022
Ukrainian officials said Saturday that over 250 cultural institutions have been "damaged or destroyed," and thousands of artifacts have been looted since Russia launched its invasion on Feb. 24, per the New York Times.
The big picture: Among the items Putin's forces stole were ancient Scythian gold objects from "one of the largest and most expensive collections in Ukraine," in the Russian-occupied Melitopol, Zaporizhzhia, said the southeastern Ukrainian city's mayor, Ivan Fedorov.
  • The Scythian empire gold dated from the fourth century B.C. and was extracted by a man in a white coat with "long tweezers and special gloves," who raided boxes stored in the cellar of a Melitopol museum, accompanied by a squad of armed Russian soldiers, the NYT reports.
Meanwhile, Mariupol City Council officials announced via Telegram this week that Russian forces had stolen "more than 2,000 unique exhibits from" the besieged port city's museums, including medals, "a unique handwritten Torah scroll," and the "Gospel of 1811 made by the Venetian printing house for the Greeks of Mariupol."
  • "Mariupol City Council is preparing materials for law enforcement agencies to initiate criminal proceedings and appeal to Interpol," per the post.
Why it matters: Scythian gold is of huge symbolic value in Ukraine, and Oleksandr Symonenko, a fellow of Ukraine’s Archaeology Institute, told the NYT Russian forces were "making a war without rules" and "destroying our life, our nature, our culture, our industry, everything."
  • "This a crime," Symonenko added.
Context: The Scythians were a nomadic group that occupied an area from north of the Black Sea to China, whose culture "flourished on the steppes from about 800 B.C. to about A.D. 300," Stanford University historian Adrienne Mayor told Live Science earlier this year.
Flashback: An appeals court in the Netherlands ruled last October that Ukraine is the legal owner of a collection of ancient artifacts that were loaned from Crimea to a museum in Amsterdam just before Russian forces seized the region in 2014.
  • Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky tweeted at the time that the ruling marked a "long-awaited victory," adding: "After the 'Scythian gold,' we'll [get back] Crimea," according to a Radio Free Europe translation.
Editor's note: This article has been updated with further context.
Axios · by Rebecca Falconer · May 1, 2022









V/R
David Maxwell
Senior Fellow
Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Phone: 202-573-8647
Personal Email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com
Web Site: www.fdd.org
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
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Subscribe to FDD’s new podcast, Foreign Podicy
FDD is a Washington-based nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

V/R
David Maxwell
Senior Fellow
Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Phone: 202-573-8647
Personal Email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com
Web Site: www.fdd.org
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
Subscribe to FDD’s new podcastForeign Podicy
FDD is a Washington-based nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

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