April 17, 2024

Iran’s unprecedented attack on Israel didn’t settle the score, but it shined light on how to best defend against future threats worldwide. Although Iran and Israel have been fighting a shadow war for decades, Iran has traditionally relied on its proxies like Hezbollah to conduct physical assaults on Israel. But on April 13, in what was a significant escalation, Iran shifted course and launched hundreds of drones and missiles directly at Israel. According to Iranian officials, the attack was payback for the recent Israeli airstrike on an Iranian consular building in Syria that killed a handful of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp (IRGC) members along with high-ranking Iranian Brigadier General Zahedi - who reportedly played a role in planning the October 7 attack.

Although it wasn’t always this way, Iran and Israel have become archenemies. So, when Iranian officials had the audacity to declare that the scorecard was now settled, as if the match just began in early April, it rings deeply hollow. But there’s also the nuance of why and how Israel and Iran choose to attack one another- and it’s not a simple matter of tit for tat. While Iran’s attacks on Israeli interests have frequently targeted Israeli civilians abroad or international Jewish centers, Israel’s attacks typically target Iran’s nuclear development facilities and capabilities- or specific individuals who have been actively planning, or conducted, violent proxy attacks against Israelis.

Further, Iranian leaders have repeatedly stated their aim of destroying Israel altogether, and just as Putin repeatedly stated his intentions to take Ukraine, we should consider taking them at their word. Although many pundits and government leaders have expressed the view that Iran was displaying restraint and could have conducted a much more severe attack, launching missiles into Israel proper was a clear escalation and it gives Israel legitimacy to retaliate in-kind. While Israel and allies are actively debating the most strategic path forward, what’s certain is that Israel’s decision should not be dictated by the whims of Iran’s officials - or by anyone who believes that Iran is going to stop here.

Iran’s recent attack not only served to remind the world of Tehran’s massively destabilizing role in the region, but of the critical components of a strong defense. It was not just remarkable defensive technology that protected Israel against the attack, although that certainly played an essential role, but an alliance involving the United States, United Kingdom, France, and Arab partners- both new and old. Members of this alliance, put to the test under the extreme geopolitical circumstances of Israel’s ongoing war against Hamas in Gaza, effectively intercepted many of Iran’s missiles before they even reached the Israeli border.

Demonstrating that we are invested in defending our allies is itself a deterrent to our adversaries. It’s why we need to continue to support Ukraine and further bolster defensive partnerships with nations like Japan and South Korea. It’s why alliances like the Quad Dialogue with India and Australia matter, and why consistently displaying competence and strength in the face of an active threat is so important. Alliances not only provide the transfer, and mastery of, critical new defensive technologies among allies, but send a strong signal to our adversaries about what might happen if they reach too far.

Indeed, in a world where territorial sovereignty is being actively threatened by aggressive states like Russia and China, future security will depend not only on the actions of our adversaries but on how effectively we collaborate with our friends.



The Arkin Group is a strategic intelligence firm offering investigative research, due diligence, international risk and crisis consulting, and security & preparedness services. We can be contacted at 212-333-0280.