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Turnaround Tuesday was in full force today, hitting a key reversal in March beans and March wheat, and reversing all of yesterday's losses.
Oil traders were stunned this morning, when the Saudi state ordered Aramco to stop work on expanding its maximum sustainable capacity to 13 million barrels daily, instead keeping it at 12 million bpd, ensuring that peak capacity will remain lower than projected rising demand for years to come, effectively pressuring oil prices much higher over the long run.
This morning's JOLTs report showed continued strength in the U.S. labor market, with December U.S. job openings rising to 9.026M, sharply above forecasts of 8.75M and above November's upwardly-revised 8.925M. Today's much stronger than expected job openings reading provides the hawks additional ammunition to point to as a sign of the need to hold rates higher for longer. U.S. consumer confidence surged to start the new year, with this morning's Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index rising to 114.8 in January, well above December's 108 and marking the highest level seen since December 2021.
Private firm AgResource cut their 2023/24 Brazilian soybean production estimate from 150.7 to 145.5 MMT at midday today. Datagro is now at 148.55 MMT (was 152.88 MMT). CONAB and USDA for reference are at 155.3 MMT and 157 MMT respectively. South American crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his Brazilian crop estimates at 149 MMT for soybeans and 115 MMT for corn, but noted both could move lower if recent dryness in central & southern areas of the country persists.
Funds were thought to have been all buyers today.
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