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Weekly Analyst Review

23 February 2022

Bottom Line Up Front

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On 21 February 2022, SDF discovered an Islamic State weapons manufacturing plant near a Raqqa city park. At least one and a half kilograms of explosives and 48 weapons were found on the premises. The incident is notable because it shows that Islamic State no longer must depend on an external supply chain but instead, that they are fully capable of manufacturing their own weapons and IEDs from within the city center. Just last week, an Islamic State financier and facilitator of IEDs coming in from Idlib, was arrested in Raqqa. To be clear, these two incidents together represent the tip of the iceberg for Islamic State in Raqqa, especially given the large amount of escaped inmates from the Sina’a Prison break in late January 2022, a plan that clearly had been in the works for months by the Islamic State Central Command. Raqqa is only a two-hour drive to the Ghuweiran neighborhood in Hasakah, where the prison is located. Not only could the prison siege could have been planned from Raqqa but also the escapees could easily be hiding in Raqqa.

Other Developments

TRAC Insight:

NSC #131 Crew Establish a Propaganda Distribution

Channel on Odysee Platform

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Image:  Screenshot from one of the NSC 131 videos uploaded to Odysee

By establishing a new channel on the Odysee video platform, which has an estimated 8.7 million users, the #131 Crew / NSC 131 group has exponentially widened the gene pool for new recruits to the group. Owned by Google, any interested party can now merely Google them instead of having to hunt for Telegram channels to join NSC 131. Interestingly, not all the NSC 131 videos are archived on their newly established channel, but only their seven most recent videos that have also been distributed on their main Telegram channel. Odysee’s interface is nearly identical to the more popular YouTube; however, Odysee also opens up the NSC 131 financial rewards via direct donations via cryptocurrency to the group on their channel.

TRAC Incident Report:

Puntland President, Said Dani, Survives al-Shabaab Improvised Explosive Device (IED) Assassination Attempt in Bosaso,

Puntland Region, Somalia

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Image: Photo of Puntland President Said Abdullahi Dani

In an attempt to disrupt the lower house elections taking place across Somalia, al-Shabaab is stepping up its attacks. Only days ago, on 19 February 2022, an al-Shabaab militant detonated an improvised explosive device (IED) at a restaurant in Beledweyne City, located in Somalia’s Hiran region. At least 13 people were killed in the blast, including local government officials, and 16 others suffered injuries. The fact that this attempted assassination took place in broad daylight demonstrates al-Shabaab’s ability to attack any where at any time. As the long-delayed elections are looming, it can be expected that al-Shabaab will continue to wage its campaign against the Somali government, especially targeting politicians and other government personnel. 

TRAC Incident Report:

LNR Militia Prevented an IED Attack Targeting Refugees

Moving to Russia in Lugansk, Donbas, Ukraine

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Images: Screenshot from video footage of LNR militia people moving a car with explosives

Since 17 February 2022, the situation in Donbas has escalated quickly when refugees began migrating across the border to Russia. The self-proclaimed Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics reported that Ukrainian Forces conducted intensive shelling of their territories. Allegedly, the Azov Battalion and the Right Sector members conducted operations in the region. On the same day, several attacks on infrastructure (water, gas, and power) occurred and the day before, there was an attempted assassination of a Militia Chief occurred in Donbas, Ukraine. The LNR and DNR leaders announced mass evacuation efforts on 18 February 2022. On 19 February 2022, a car with explosives was found abandoned on the Luhansk-Krasnodon road, near a police traffic station. The authorities of the Luhansk People’s Republic use this highway to evacuate its residents to Russia. The LNR Militia believes that Russian refugees, comprised of mostly women with children and elderly people, were the primary target of the IED. The vehicle was carefully moved away and disabled.

On Our Radar:

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Far-Right Extremism:

Eco-Fascist Telegram Channel: Anti-Vaccination Video Targeting Anthony Fauci and Pfizer Pharmaceutical Company Combined with Canadian Trucker Freedom Convoy Movement Released

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TRAC Incident Report:

A Unidentified Lone Gunman Attacked the Apple Store on Leidseplein & is Holding One Hostage at Gunpoint, Leidseplein, Amsterdam, Noord-Holland, Netherlands

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TRAC Incident Report: The ‘People’s Convoy’, Inspired by the Canadian ‘Freedom Convoy 2022’ Movement, is Set to Start from Adelanto on Wednesday, 23 February 2022, Adelanto, California

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