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In recent weeks, TRAC has been following Wagner's convoy attempting to make its way to Kidal as both Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM) and Coordination for Azawad Movements (CAM) have been stopping the Wagner convoy every step along the way and to this date, Wagner has still not actually arrived in Kidal. This is especially important considering that MINUSMA has evacuated from Kidal, as such has been equally targeted by JNIM militants as they continue their exodus from Mali.
On 31 October 2023, JNIM militants targeted MINUSMA forces with an IED on their way out of Kidal, reportedly destroying the vehicle in its totality and killing all occupants on board. Two days later, on 02 November 2023, JNIM militants initiated a second attack, again detonating an IED on MINUSMA forces who were on their way out of Kidal and again destroying the vehicle and killing all those on board.
The second attack on MINUSMA forces leaving Kidal clearly shows JNIM's intent on expressing their total domination of the region to not only MINSUMA, but also to FAMA/Wagner Forces as well.
Similar to the JNIM attacks on the convoys of FAMA/Wagner forces that attempted to reach Kidal to stop Coordination for Azawad Movements (CAM)/JNIM militants, it is highly unlikely that MINUSMA forces will make it out of this situation alive without JNIM agreeing to some sort of expressed safe passage, which, given the bloody history between these groups, in extremely doubtful.
JNIM will make MINUSMA forces evacuation a living hell as shown by the repeated attacks on the way out, by continuing this pattern at an alarming rate for the rest of 2023, as MINUSMAs deadline of the 31st of December is fast arriving.
While the security coalition of FAMA and Wagner Forces may have high hopes of weakening JNIM, their attempts on 07 November using drones to strike the JNIM/CAM held town of Kidal fell remarkably short. It was reported that the drone strike missed any militants, but killed 14 civilians, including children.
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This showdown between the two large forces has been long anticipated, as tensions have been palpable between the two groups, which will undoubtedly be a massive victory for either group.
FAMA/Wagner forces are likely to rely on any type of air support to soften up the JNIM/CAM forces before a physical show down. It is still unknown if this will be effective by any means, considering FAMA and Wagner’s disregard for civilians and penchants for missing JNIM encampments, again reference the 07 November incident. This is further complicated as JNIM/CAM forces have had significant success at aircraft downing capabilities over the past two months.
Given that JNIM/CAM have had weeks to fortify their position, coupled with having the knowledge of FAMA and Wagner’s intentions on sieging the town for over a month, it is more than likely that JNIM/CAM will be able to repel any attacks from the security coalition. In the unlikely event that Kidal would actually fall into the hands of Wagner and FAMA, it would be incredibly difficult for them to maintain control over area, as Kidal has been a hub for the Azawad movement for a decade, meaning that, local support in the area has deep roots.
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TRAC Incident Report:
Islamic Resistance in Iraq (and Syria) (IRI) Conducted Six Strikes on Four Different United States Bases, in Syria and Iraq
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The Islamic Resistance in Iraq (IRI) has initiated a significant offensive targeting U.S. infrastructures situated in both Syria and Iraq. Since 18 October 2023, the IRI has claimed 21 strikes on U.S. military bases on Syrian and Iraqi soil. Their predominant tactic is to use weaponized drones to target military infrastructure. The use of these specific types of suicide drones clearly indicates that the group receives substantial logistical and material support from Iran in their operations.
On 06 November 2023, Islamic Resistance in Iraq (and Syria) (IRI) conducted 6 strikes on four separate United States bases: Ain al-Assad, the base neighboring Erbil airport in Iraq, Al-Baidar, and Al-Tanf in Northern Syria. Three strikes were conducted on the Ain al-Assad and three others were conducted separately on the remaining U.S bases. Though the group has been at this since 18 October, the 06 November attacks marks the first time IRI has carried out that many strikes on the same day, in such a coordinated manner as to target four different U.S. positions simultaneously.
IRI’s actions are driven by the fact they see these strikes as a retaliation for the United States’ weaponry and material support to Israel in their ongoing operation on the Gaza Strip. Additionally, the attacks are seen as a means to erode American influence and presence in the broader region. To further the conflict, the group has also recently claimed to have successfully conducted strikes within Israeli territory, but there is no corroborating information, leading TRAC to contend that the IRI claims are mere propaganda.
What remains certain is that the IRI offensive has impacted the U.S.’s presence and infrastructure in the area. After the IRI strikes, the U.S. was forced to evacuate a portion of its diplomatic personnel from Iraq. In terms of military forces, the Pentagon confirmed that 24 soldiers have been injured in IRI strikes. Nonetheless, there are plans to deploy more troops to the Middle East region to strengthen the country’s defense and protection capabilities. It is worth noting that the U.S. conducted its first retaliation strikes on the IRI on the 26th of October, with Air Force F-16 fighter jets targeting the group’s positions in the Deir Ezzor governorate, Syria.
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TRAC Incident Report:
Suspicious Explosion at the Canadian Embassy Kills Two and Injures Two Others, Abuja, Nigeria
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On 06 November 2023, in the early morning hours, an explosion at the High Commission of Canada in Nigeria’s capital, Abuja, caused the death of two and the injury of two others, as well as significant damage to the building. As Canadian authorities continue to investigate the cause of the explosion, the embassy’s operations have been suspended indefinitely. It should be noted that this incident comes three days after the United States and the United Kingdom warned of an increased threat to major hotels in the country’s biggest cities.
According to Nigerian sources, a fire broke out at the High Commission of Canada when generators, containing 2,000 liters of diesel, were being serviced. However, following the incident, the Canadian authorities issued a travel advisory, warning against non-essential travel to Nigeria, “due to the unpredictable security situation throughout the country and the significant risk of terrorism, crime, intercommunal clashes, armed attacks, and kidnappings.” This specific detail leads TRAC to consider the high probability that the fire/explosion was intentionally caused.
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TRAC Incident Report:
Islamic State Khurasan (ISK) Militants Detonated an IED Explosive Laden Minibus in the Hazara Shia Neighbourhood, Mehtab-Kala Area, in Dasht-e-Barchi Area, Kabul, Afghanistan
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On 07 November 2023, Islamic State Khurasan (ISK) militants detonated an IED explosive-laden minibus in the Hazara Shia neighborhood in the Dasht-e-Barchi Area of Kabul in Afghanistan. Initial reports indicated that the explosion killed and wounded over 30.
Dasht-e-Barchi is a predominantly Hazara Shia neighborhood and the minority of Hazara Shia in Afghanistan have been hit incredibly hard and repeatedly by Islamic State Khurasan (ISK), especially during Ramadan in 2022 and 2023. The 07 November bombing is the second in just three weeks in Kabul.
About a year ago, in mid-November 2022, ISK shifted their strategy from conducting several small-scale attacks on a daily basis to targeting more high-profile locations, causing mass casualties. This change in ISK strategy requires extensive planning and explains the group's intermittent activity over actual Taliban (IEA) counterterrorism operations as IEA would like the world to believe.
Although TRAC only recorded a total of four bombings from August through October in Kabul, the 07 November bombing occurs mere weeks after the 18 October bombing and signifies a sudden increase in ISK large scale bombings. TRAC posits that this increase is a clear indication that ISK has completed their strategic "regrouping and reassessing" of capabilities as well as a continuous logistical supply chain of explosive material.
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TRAC Incident Report: Suspected Ambazonia Defense Forces (ADF) Storm Egbekaw Village, Killing at Least 20 Civilians, Mamfe, Manyu Department, Cameroon | |
TRAC Incident Report: Sovereign Citizen Jeffrey Mindock Threatens to Assassinate a Scottsdale Rabbi and "Every Other Jew" in Tempe, Maricopa County, Arizona, United States | |
TRAC Incident Report: National Police Operation Leads to the Arrest of 14 Jihadists Across Six Provinces, Barcelona, Valencia, Guipúzcoa, Vitoria, Logroño and Lérida, Spain | | | | |
