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Grains finally managed to find buyers today, but not before more widespread lows. Kansas City wheat spurred the positive price activity today, as bargain buying emerged after prices hit fresh nearly three year lows early in the session. Similar dynamics then emerged for the other wheat markets, as well as corn, but the market otherwise lacks fundamental news to jumpstart a more significant rally. The surging corn market helped lift soybean prices this afternoon, though beans did not see the impressive volume that corn did, indicating much of today’s buying was due to spillover strength. What is going to turn the market higher? A shock. A story . Or both.
Technical levels that would show a turn positive...
Old Crop Corn - 4.46 (would move above the bear trendline)
New Crop Corn- 4.95 (move above bear line)
Old Crop Beans- 12.04 (25% retracement of decline)
New Crop Beans- 11.72 (50% of the price for the life of the contract) (11.23 is an area of weakness which we hit today as that is the 62% retracement)
New Crop wheat- 6.10 (move above bear trendline)
Export inspections showed that all commodities had pretty decent export data for the week ended February 22nd. U.S. corn export inspections last week exceeded trade expectations. Wheat was at the high end of guesses and soybeans right in the middle. Biggest corn volume of the year (finally) but China wasn't a destination. Marketing year to date corn export inspections exceed the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 27 million bushels, up from 15 million the previous week. Marketing year to date soybean export inspections fall short of the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 17 million bushels, versus being short by 22 million bushels the previous week. Marketing year to date wheat export inspections fall short of the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 49 million bushels, versus 54 million the previous week.
Money managers as of Feb. 20 established a RECORD NET SHORT in CBOT corn futures & options of 340,732 contracts. That surpasses the old record of 322,215 set on April 23, 2019. Money managers through Feb. 20 have been net sellers of CBOT soybeans for a record 14 consecutive weeks, although selling was lighter in last two. Prior record was 10 weeks. Latest net short of 136,677 contracts is largest since May 2019. Record is 168,835 (5/14/19). Funds were thought to have been all buyers today.
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