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PDF | Research | Week of December 11, 2023

Quote of the Week

“You’re really talking about a distribution of outcomes that range between the Fed doing nothing next year to the Fed cutting aggressively next year.”

– Rob Waldner, fixed income chief strategist, Invesco.

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Please Cast your Vote for Churchill

Thanks to all of your support, Churchill Asset Management has been selected as a finalist across multiple categories in the Private Equity International and Private Debt Investor Awards this year! Winners are determined by industry vote, so please take a moment to cast yours by following the instructions below. We appreciate your support!

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Americas category:

Lender of the Year


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Americas category:

Lender of the Year

Junior Lender of the Year

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The New Paradigm (Fourth of a Series)

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The New Paradigm (Last of a Series)

In the capital markets this year, it’s all been about rates and inflation: can the Fed’s higher-for-longer regime bring prices down close to pre-pandemic levels without triggering a recession? At the moment, the answer seems to be yes. 


Both credit investors and issuers are using private capital as a vehicle proven resilient through rate, economic, inflation, geopolitical and biological cycles. The success of the asset class has highlighted its unique characteristics, also creating questions from observers less familiar with illiquid credit dynamics. 


Last week we reported on a conversation with Van Hesser, chief strategist for KBRA. Mr. Hesser joined us for our latest Private Capital Call podcast. Following up on our questions about credit defaults, we asked about the economic outlook, given earlier more pessimistic forecasts...

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New: Private Capital Call Podcast


Episode 2: Van Hesser, Chief Strategist at KBRA

"It's going to be back to normal, which will be very different from a lot we've gone through in the last 15 years." - Van Hesser

Listen Now

Chart of the Week

Lower Later

The futures market now expects Fed Funds to be 120 bps lower next year. 

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Source: The Daily Shot

(Past performance is no guarantee of future results.)

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Stat of the Week

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Loan Stats at a Glance 

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Contact: Ryan Brown/ PitchBook LCD

PDI Picks

Room for improvement on ESG

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A group of investors noted the progress made by private debt in ESG and DEI, but there is still some way to go, they believe.

Private Debt Investor’s December/January issue approached European investors to get their thoughts on how ESG is dealt with by managers...

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Leveraged Loan Insight & Analysis

With only a few weeks left to 2023, US leveraged volume lags year ago results

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Despite a steadier second half to the 2H23 debt capital markets, at US$856bn, leveraged issuance for 2023 lags year ago results which totalled over US$951bn...

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Contact: Maria Dikeos / Refinitiv LPC

The Pulse of Private Equity

A quarter of megafunds

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Global fundraising is on a healthy trajectory this year, according to PitchBook’s Q3 2023 Global Private Market Fundraising Report...

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Contact: Alex Lykken / PitchBook

DL Deals: News & Analysis

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Year-to-Date Default Volume, Count

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Contact: Eric Rosenthal / KBRA DLD

Middle Market & Private Credit

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Median Leverage and Coverage

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Fitch’s privately covered Middle Market (MM) portfolio is made up of generally smaller issuers (with average EBITDA of $54 million, average revenue of $286 million and average debt of $314 million)...

Read more & Download Data/Report

Contact: Brad Hamner / FitchRatings

Covenant Trends 

Distribution of MFN Sunset Horizons

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Download Data

Contact: Steven Miller / Covenant Review

High-Yield Bond Statistics

Launched Volume

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New-issue Yields

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Weekly Fund Flows

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Weekly fund flows source: Lipper

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Contact: Robert Polenberg / LevFin Insights

Private Debt Intelligence

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Special situations funds close over

target in North America 

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The average percentage of target size at final close for North American special situations funds has reached over 100% in 2023 year to date (YTD)...

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Contact: Megan Harris / Preqin

Debtwire Middle-Market

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The blue line in the chart is the current dividend yield of the *VanEck BDC Income ETF (currently at 10.7% as of 11 December, down from the highest YTD level of 12.1% in May) that tracks the overall performance of publicly traded business development companies (BDCs, lenders to privately held middle-market businesses that tend to be below investment grade or not rated, with most lending comprising of senior secured loans)...

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Contact: Suneet Chandvani / Debtwire 

Middle Market Deal Terms at a Glance

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Contact: Stefan Shaffer / SPP Capital Partners

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This publication is a service to our clients and friends. It is designed only to give general information on the market developments actually covered. It is not intended to be a comprehensive summary of recent developments or to suggest parameters for any prospective financing opportunity.