Informal Institute for National Security Thinkers and Practitioners

Quotes of the Day:

“The first opinion which one forms of a prince, and of his capability, is by observing the people he has around him.”
- Machiavelli

Culture is not a piece of baggage that immigrants carry with them; it is not static but undergoes constant modification in a new environment.
- Sau-ling Cynthia Wong

"The most shocking fact about war is that its victims and its instruments are individual human beings, and that these individual beings are condemned by the monstrous conventions of politics to murder or be murdered in quarrels not their own."
- Aldous Huxley

1. N.Korea 'World's 3rd Biggest Hacking Powerhouse'
2. A preemptive strike on North Korea? Contingency planning may be gaining currency
3. Yoon vows to rebuild Korea-US alliance; calls Moon's peace process a 'failure'
4. Why the UAE opted for South Korean missiles
5. Will North Korea Start Testing Nuclear Weapons and ICBMs Again?
6. Gloria Steinem's North Korea Peace Walk Draws Ire Despite Lack of Any Better Ideas_2
7. North Korea threatens return to nuclear brinkmanship after spike in missile tests
8. S. Korea says it's closely monitoring N. Korea's nuclear, missile activities
9. N. Korea likely to trigger IRBM threat capable of reaching Guam
10. U.S. ships gather in waters nearer to Korean Peninsula
11. Standing up to North Korea
12. Unification minister to brief foreign envoys on N. Korea policy
13. Yoon pledges to normalize military drills with U.S., enhance deterrence against North
14. North Korean hypersonic threat is an alarming wake-up call for how we innovate
15. North Korean state media confirms Daily NK report on special pardons




1. N.Korea 'World's 3rd Biggest Hacking Powerhouse'


Kim Jong-un's"all purpose sword."

Excerpts:
The regime is seeking a breakthrough through cyberattacks because it is suffering one of its worst economic crises due to the coronavirus border lockdown and international sanctions. Last year, North Korean hackers stole an estimated US$400 million worth of cryptocurrency by hacking.
Experts believe not enough is being done. Ryu Dong-ryeol of the Korea Institute of Liberal Democracy said, "The South Korean government is neglectful and lackadaisical in response to the North's cyber capabilities that have reached dangerous levels where they could incapacitate our computer systems in an instant. We need a cybersecurity law and invest in cyberwarfare capabilities before it's too late."

N.Korea 'World's 3rd Biggest Hacking Powerhouse'
North Korea is believed to rank third after only the U.S. and Russia when it comes to the power and ingenuity of its computer hackers.
North Korean hackers paralyze entire countries with various kinds of cyberattacks and steal confidential documents or foreign currency by hacking agencies and banks.
The North has focused on increasing hacking capabilities, convinced that hacking is the most powerful means of attack of the future since former leader Kim Jong-il was alive. His son Kim Jong-un has put a cyber command under his own control, calling his regime's cyberwarfare capabilities an "all-powerful blade."
As many as 7,000 hackers are working under the General Reconnaissance Bureau, the agency for the regime's anti-South Korean operations. They pilfer confidential documents from South Korea and the big powers, or use ransomware to steal money and cryptocurrency, and launder looted gains.
North Korean hackers launched attacks on 33 of the South Korean military's 80 wireless communication networks during joint South Korea-U.S. military drills in 2004 and launched DDoS attacks on 40 South Korean and U.S. agencies, including Cheong Wa Dae and the White House between 2009 and 2011.
One North Korean hacker group is also suspected to have been behind the WannaCry ransomware attack against some 300,000 computers in about 150 countries in May 2017.
Last June, they pilfered documents from Korea Aerospace Industries, the producer of South Korea's key KF-21 fighter jet.
The regime is seeking a breakthrough through cyberattacks because it is suffering one of its worst economic crises due to the coronavirus border lockdown and international sanctions. Last year, North Korean hackers stole an estimated US$400 million worth of cryptocurrency by hacking.
Experts believe not enough is being done. Ryu Dong-ryeol of the Korea Institute of Liberal Democracy said, "The South Korean government is neglectful and lackadaisical in response to the North's cyber capabilities that have reached dangerous levels where they could incapacitate our computer systems in an instant. We need a cybersecurity law and invest in cyberwarfare capabilities before it's too late."



2. A preemptive strike on North Korea? Contingency planning may be gaining currency


My thoughts on a pre-emptive strike are here from 2013. A Preemptive Strike on North Korea? Does it make sense? What comes after? What comes before? https://warontherocks.com/2013/07/a-preemptive-strike-on-north-korea/


A preemptive strike on North Korea? Contingency planning may be gaining currency
The Hill · by Donald Kirk, opinion contributor · January 20, 2022

Drastic measures in response to North Korea’s missile-and-nuclear program may be needed. If the North persists in testing missiles and fabricating nuclear warheads, should South Korea and the United States respond in kind? And would preemptive strikes really forestall potential North Korean missile strikes on the South?
Those questions are central to the confrontation between North and South Korea and in the campaigning for a new president of South Korea in the March election. The candidate of the conservative People Power Party, Yoon Suk-yeol, has talked about striking North Korea preemptively; the candidate of the ruling Minjoo or Democratic Party, Lee Jae-myung, has demanded that Yoon retract the controversial statement.
This exchange is largely abstract. No one at this stage expects South Korea to launch an attack on North Korea simply to stop the North from testing missiles. An attack on the North’s nuclear facilities is even less likely, considering they’re largely underground at the Yongbyon complex and scattered elsewhere around the country. Concealed in caves and tunnels, they would not be easy to target.
The topic of a preemptive strike, however, is gaining currency as the North continues testing missiles and building up its nuclear stockpile, as well as other weapons of mass destruction, chemical and biological. Retired Gen. Curtis Scaparrotti, who commanded the U.S. Forces Korea and the Combined Forces Command that includes South Korean troops from 2013 to 2016, revealed in an online discussion that “we have been working on the intelligence capabilities needed for preemptive strikes.”
That comment means that the U.S. and South Korea are studying how much they need to know about exactly where and how to destroy the North’s missile and nuclear complexes. It does not mean they’re about to conduct strikes, just that they’re engaging in serious contingency planning. In fact, Scaparrotti acknowledged: “We’re not advancing with the sense of urgency with which we should be advancing.” The North Koreans, he said, are “moving faster than expected.” Obviously, commanders should be ready to strike — whether preemptively or in retaliation — even if they’ll never put their carefully devised plans into practice.
Actually, any preemptive strike at this stage would be risky for several reasons. Most immediately, China, defending North Korea, its old Korean War ally, might jump into the fray as it did in 1950, when Chinese forces poured into North Korea after U.S. and South Korean troops had reached the banks of the Yalu River. The U.S., leading United Nations forces, including South Koreans, had foolishly believed they were on the way to reuniting the two Koreas several months after North Korea’s leader Kim Il-sung, grandfather of the present leader, Kim Jong Un, had ordered the invasion of the South in June 1950.
Yet another risk factor is the disarray of opinion in the South. Lee Jae-myung appears more committed to reconciliation and dialogue with the North than the liberal President Moon Jae-in, who cannot run for a second five-year term. They both believe in appeasement, calling for an end-of-war agreement that could compromise the alliance between the U.S. and Republic of Korea. Lee aspires to co-existence and mutual cooperation, though North Korea has made clear it will stick to its demands for an end to U.S. and UN sanctions and U.S.-South Korean military exercises before even sitting down for talks.
Also weighing against a preemptive strike is the mood in the U.S. and the outlook of President Biden and his aides. They may righteously denounce North Korean missile tests and impose more sanctions, but the prospect of war on the Korean peninsula is way down the list of concerns in Washington. Biden has enough on his hands worrying about what Russia might do in Ukraine or when China might advance on Taiwan.
The Biden administration can afford to wave off suggestions by military minds about a preemptive strike on North Korea. Let the generals plan for any contingency, but the policymakers at the State Department and National Security Council aren’t interested right now. Freed from U.S. constraints, South Korea is advancing from short- and mid-range missiles to long-range models capable of devastating targets in North Korea and beyond.
As for South Korea fabricating nuclear warheads to compete with the North, as some conservatives in the South have suggested, South Korean physicists and engineers no doubt have the technology and expertise but are far from making South Korea a rival nuclear power. That idea is not a topic for discussion.
U.S. and South Korean commanders, however, are sure to continue thinking about a potential preemptive strike on the North. To them, the question is, what if Kim seriously escalates the threat level, tests intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of reaching the U.S., develops the technology to affix a warhead to a missile and even conducts another nuclear test?
So far, Kim has ordered four nuclear tests since taking over in 2011 from his father, Kim Jong Il, who ordered the North’s first two nuclear tests. The North Koreans conducted their sixth, most recent nuclear test in September 2017, when what may have been a hydrogen bomb exploded much of the mountain in which it was buried, reportedly killing about 200 people. Since then, the North has continued to make warheads and is estimated to have stockpiled about 60.
To U.S. and South Korean strategists, the terrible question will be whether to let the North strike first or beat them to the punch with a blow intended to cripple Kim’s grandiose dreams of intimidating the South while fighting poverty and pandemic at home.
Donald Kirk has been a journalist for more than 60 years, focusing much of his career on conflict in Asia and the Middle East, including as a correspondent for the Washington Star and Chicago Tribune. He currently is a freelance correspondent covering North and South Korea. He is the author of several books about Asian affairs.
The Hill · by Donald Kirk, opinion contributor · January 20, 2022




3. Yoon vows to rebuild Korea-US alliance; calls Moon's peace process a 'failure'

"rebuild" the alliance?  

Candidate Yoon outlines a number of policies that are favorable to US interests. But we should remember that the US does not have a vote in the ROK election! Foreign policy will not win the election.




Yoon vows to rebuild Korea-US alliance; calls Moon's peace process a 'failure'
The Korea Times · January 24, 2022
Yoon Suk-yeol, the presidential candidate of the main opposition conservative People Power Party, speaks during a press conference on his diplomacy and security policies held at party headquarters in Seoul, Monday. Joint Press Corps

Lee pledges 'transportation revolution' for metropolitan area
By Jung Da-min

Yoon Suk-yeol, the presidential candidate of the main opposition conservative People Power Party (PPP), vowed, Monday, to "rebuild" Korea's alliance with the U.S. to deal more effectively with both North Korea's nuclear threats and other regional security and economic cooperation issues.

He also said he would expand South Korea's role in U.S.-led multilateral initiatives, including the Quadrilateral Strategic Dialogue, widely known as the "Quad."
"I would focus on bolstering a comprehensive and strategic alliance with the United States based on the shared values and principles of freedom, democracy, the market economy, constitutionalism and human rights," Yoon said during a press conference on his diplomacy and security policy pledges at party headquarters in Seoul.

"I will pursue open cooperation to expand common interests with related countries in the region by participating in working groups for vaccines, climate change and new technology under the Quad, a partnership between the U.S., Japan, Australia and India."

But Yoon said he is currently not seeking to join the Quad formally, instead aiming to expand South Korea's role in the network by participating in more working groups.

The main opposition candidate also criticized the Moon Jae-in government's North Korea policy, calling its peace process on the Korean Peninsula a "failure." Yoon said that President Moon and the ruling Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) have failed to reassure the people of their safety from potential nuclear attacks from North Korea, while focusing on the issue of realizing an end-of-war declaration.
"North Korea is upgrading its nuclear capabilities and testing what it calls 'hypersonic' missiles. It has blatantly been provocative. The DPK's so-called peace process on the Korean Peninsula has completely failed," Yoon said.

He added he would establish in the military a three-axis air defense system ― consisting of the Kill Chain preemptive strike system, the Korean Air and Missile Defense (KAMD) and the Korea Massive Punishment and Retaliation (KMPR) plan ― to counter potential nuclear threats posed by the North better.

However, Yoon said that he will leave the door open for dialogue with the North and provide "full" economic support if the North actively engages in its denuclearization.

As for his objectives for diplomatic relations with the U.S. and China amid their growing rivalry, Yoon said he would focus on the security alliance with the U.S., while seeking economic cooperation with China.

"North Korea and China are virtual allies in terms of security, just like South Korea and the U.S. are. South Korea should be committed to the security alliance with the U.S., and seek to strengthen economic cooperation with China based on the principle of mutual respect," Yoon said.

Asked about whether he would participate in an inter-Korean summit, Yoon said he would not hold a summit for its own sake without making any agreements in advance through working groups.

"When the leaders try to meet, they basically reach a preliminary agreement to improve bilateral relations. But holding a summit first and saying, 'Let's do better in the future,' is nothing but a show. I will not pursue such a show nor use the issue of inter-Korean reunification for domestic politics," Yoon said.

Lee Jae-myung, the presidential candidate of the ruling liberal Democratic Party of Korea, speaks during a press conference on his policy promises for Gyeonggi Province, held at an art hall in Yongin, Gyeonggi Province, Monday. Joint Press Corps

Yoon's rival candidate Lee Jae-myung of the DPK has criticized Yoon's North Korea policy, saying Yoon was creating unnecessary tensions on the Korean Peninsula by promoting the idea of a preemptive strike against the North, to win more support from members of the country's conservative bloc.

On the same day, Lee presented his policy promises for Gyeonggi Province, the country's most populated province with about 13.5 million residents. He served as governor of the province before becoming the ruling party's candidate for the presidential election.

Holding a press conference at an art hall in Yongin, Gyeonggi Province, Lee vowed to carry out a transportation project connecting the entire metropolitan area within an average of 30 minutes, by expanding the construction of the Great Train Express (GTX) commuter rail networks, subways and expressways.


The Korea Times · January 24, 2022




4. Why the UAE opted for South Korean missiles


Excerpts:
Arrow-3 fills the role of THAAD in Israel and the Israelis are working on an even more advanced system called Arrow-4.
For the United States the UAE purchase, politics aside, represents a significant setback. The US does not presently have an integrated air defense system that covers the spectrum of modern threats.
The US Defense Department has been burying its head in the sand if it thinks it can keep proffering systems that are either ineffective against heavier ballistic missile threats, fails to address other threats such as UAVs or cruise missiles, or systems that lack an integrated and layered approach.
Clearly, if South Korea can sell a system based on Russian technology, US air defense support for NATO and for allies and friends comes into question. All of this translates to a growing loss of confidence in American air defense capabilities; made worse it seems since the US Defense Department has not responded to the air defense confidence crisis it faces.
Why the UAE opted for South Korean missiles
Big ticket procurement ultimately raises questions on whether US has failed to address an air defense confidence crisis
asiatimes.com · by Stephen Bryen · January 20, 2022
The United Arab Emirates is buying a South Korean air defense system based on the Russian 9M96 interceptor missile and radars and command and control systems developed for Russia’s S-350 and S-400 missile systems.
Known as the KM-SAM Cheongong II (Iron Hawk), South Korea developed the system in partnership with Almaz-Antey (officially JSC Concern VKO), Russia’s premier air defense system developer and with Fakel (P.D.Grushin Machine-building Design Bureau).
A number of South Korean contractors participated in the project, including Samsung-Thales – a partnership with France’s Thales Aerospace Group – LIG Nex1 Co, Ltd and Doosan.

The original Cheongung project in South Korea was planned to replace the outdated US-built MIM-23 Hawk (Homing all the Way) air defense system. Cheongong II is an upgrade that is optimized against lower-tier ballistic missile threats.
Cheongong II was first deployed in South Korea in November 2020. A complete battery consists of up to six 8-cell transport-erector-launchers, an X-band multi-function 3D phased array and a fire command vehicle.
The system can intercept an incoming missile at an altitude of 20 kilometers, or 12.4 miles. The Cheongung missiles are hit to kill instead of a fragmentation-type warhead.
The South Korean partnership with Russia’s aerospace and defense industries represents an effort by South Korea to counter missile threats from North Korea and also suggests the Koreans want to be in control of their own air defenses and not rely on the United States, which mans and operates the only THAAD system in South Korea.
The UAE has acquired Patriot PAC-3 advanced missile defenses from the United States, but US Patriots have been, at best, modestly effective against Houthi-launched Iranian ballistic missiles and ineffective against drones.

A South Korean soldier standing by a Cheongung medium range surface-to-air missile system during a media day presentation of a commemoration event marking South Korea’s Armed Forces Day at the Second Fleet Command of Navy in Pyeongtaek. Photo: AFP / Jung Yeon-Je
US being bypassed
The UAE, meanwhile, “suspended” a purchase of F-35 jet fighters after the US imposed conditions on the sale which the UAE found unacceptable. Washington has been promoting negotiations with the Houthis and has not supported military operations by Saudi Arabia and the UAE in contesting Houthi attempts to overthrow the Yemen government.
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia, which also has the Patriot PAC-3, has reported it is running out of interceptor missiles for its Patriots and has asked for more. Whether the US will deliver missiles, and when, remains an unanswered question. Saudi Arabia faced 375 cross-border attacks this past year, mainly missiles and drones, launched by the Houthis.
The UAE will not be the first to seek alternatives to the US Patriot system. South Korea, which has Patriots and is seeking to upgrade them, has moved on in its partnership with Russia in developing the Cheongung and L-SAM, South Korea’s version of the US THAAD (TerminalHigh Altitude Air Defense).
Like Cheongung, LSAM is a development with the Russians and is based on the 48N6E interceptor missiles. That missile has a range of some 400km, or 250 miles, making it the longest range missile available for Russia’s S-400 Triumf air defense system and it may be able to intercept hypersonic targets.
According to the publication Global Security, the L-SAM system “will intercept missiles at an altitude of 40km or above [or an altitude of 50-60km],” moderating worries that the PAC-2 and PAC-3 are not enough to shoot down DPRK missiles, possibly tipped with nuclear warheads.

Well ahead of South Korea, Israel has also developed its own increasingly integrated air defense system that includes Iron DomeDavid’s SlingArrow-2 and Arrow-3. Israel is partnered with US firms (Raytheon, Lockheed, Boeing) and is supported by the US Missile Defense Agency.
The US also funds Israeli air defense systems as well as joint research and development.
Poland, which is buying the Patriot PAC-3, has asked for its Patriot system to include Raytheon’s Skyceptor missiles. Skyceptor is the Raytheon version of the joint Raytheon and Israeli Rafael interceptor rocket which was developed for Israel’s David’s Sling.
A David’s Sling weapons system Stunner Missile during an inaugural flight test. Photo: WikiCommons
Alternatives to US products
The David’s Sling system is designed to intercept enemy planes, drones, tactical ballistic missiles, medium- to long-range rockets and cruise missiles.
US air defense systems today include Patriot (PAC-2 and PAC-3), THAAD and the Ground Based Interceptor (GBI) or Ground Based Midcourse Defense (GMD). The US Navy also has the Aegis air defense system today featuring SM-3 and SM-6 interceptors.

The US proposed to Japan a land-based version of Aegis (Aegis Ashore), but Japan decided against buying the land-based system because of objections that the missiles might fail and fall on population centers and were too expensive.
Turkey, in a blow to the US and NATO, purchased the S-400 air defense system from Russia and is considering purchasing more.
If the UAE already has PAC-3 Patriot and THAAD (nine batteries of Patriot and two batteries of THAAD), why did it buy the South Korean system? One explanation is that the Korean Cheongung Air Defense system fills a “lower tier” gap that can’t be handled by Patriot and where THAAD is not effective.
This aligns with Israel, which does not have THAAD, but needed a system to fill an important air defense gap against the threat of exoatmospheric but short-range missiles that could be launched by Iran, or by Iranian proxies.
Arrow-3 fills the role of THAAD in Israel and the Israelis are working on an even more advanced system called Arrow-4.
For the United States the UAE purchase, politics aside, represents a significant setback. The US does not presently have an integrated air defense system that covers the spectrum of modern threats.
The US Defense Department has been burying its head in the sand if it thinks it can keep proffering systems that are either ineffective against heavier ballistic missile threats, fails to address other threats such as UAVs or cruise missiles, or systems that lack an integrated and layered approach.
Clearly, if South Korea can sell a system based on Russian technology, US air defense support for NATO and for allies and friends comes into question. All of this translates to a growing loss of confidence in American air defense capabilities; made worse it seems since the US Defense Department has not responded to the air defense confidence crisis it faces.
Follow Stephen Bryen on Twitter at @stephenbryen
asiatimes.com · by Stephen Bryen · January 20, 2022



5. Will North Korea Start Testing Nuclear Weapons and ICBMs Again?


Excerpts:
If North Korea makes good on its veiled threat to resume ICBM and nuclear weapons tests, the United States will likely face incentives to ratchet up military and/​or economic pressure to both punish North Korea and create leverage for diplomacy. However, North Korea has repeatedly shown a willingness to respond to such pressure with additional escalations of its own. This was the basis of the 2017 crisis, which saw a steadily worsening action‐​reaction cycle of tests leading to sanctions, leading to more tests. Diplomacy could offer an off‐​ramp, but North Korea has set high demands to return to the table that the Biden administration is unlikely to accept and Biden is not willing to make a departure from the long‐​stated U.S. goal of complete denuclearization. Backing down from that unrealistic goal would help, but doing so would not guarantee North Korea’s return to negotiations.
Hopefully, North Korea is just posturing to make itself look defiant after new U.S. sanctions. However, when combined with the recent acceleration of missile testing, the persistent diplomatic deadlock, and Kim’s instructions at last year’s party congress, the politburo report makes for a very ominous start to a new year on the Korean peninsula.
Will North Korea Start Testing Nuclear Weapons and ICBMs Again?
19fortyfive.com · by ByEric Gomez · January 24, 2022
What is North Korea Thinking?: This year is shaping up to be a very active one for North Korea’s missile program. Kim Jong Un’s regime has already conducted four ballistic missile tests so far this year, including two tests of a new, maneuverable warhead that North Korea called a hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV). All of the missiles tested in 2022 thus far, and most tests conducted since the breakdown of nuclear diplomacy in February 2019, were of relatively short-range systems. This trend could change, however, due to recent guidance from North Korea’s politburo.
The politburo report instructs the country’s national defense sector to reconsider “confidence‐​building measures that we have taken on our own initiative…and to promptly examine the issue of restarting all temporarily‐​suspended activities.”
While the politburo report was not explicit, the measures it mentions reconsidering are most likely a moratorium on long‐​range missile and nuclear weapon testing that Kim Jong Un announced in April 2018 when diplomacy with the United States was on the upswing. Kim officially lifted the moratorium in December 2019 and resumed missile testing, but thus far he has refrained from conducting tests of both nuclear weapons and intercontinental‐​range ballistic missiles (ICBMs) capable of reaching the United States. Instead, North Korea’s missile tests have emphasized shorter‐​range systems that could threaten South Korea, Japan, and potentially Guam.
Resuming ICBM and nuclear weapons tests would be a significant break from recent trends in North Korea’s military activities. Last January in a major address to the ruling Worker’s Party of Korea, Kim set out a weapons wish list that included HGVs, low‐​yield or “tactical” nuclear warheads, solid‐​fuel ICBMs, and missiles capable of carrying multiple warheads. As more time goes by without a viable path back to diplomacy, it is not surprising that Kim wants to expand his nuclear arsenal with new capabilities. It is highly likely that North Korea has conducted designed and development work on new ICBMs and nuclear weapons, but it has not tested either type of system since the height of the nuclear crisis of 2017.
The Trump and Biden administrations were content to leave North Korea more or less alone as it tested short‐​range missiles in 2020 and 2021. Avoiding an overreaction that might have precipitated a new crisis on the peninsula was wise, but without a political or diplomatic process in place this lack of attention just led to further testing.
If North Korea makes good on its veiled threat to resume ICBM and nuclear weapons tests, the United States will likely face incentives to ratchet up military and/​or economic pressure to both punish North Korea and create leverage for diplomacy. However, North Korea has repeatedly shown a willingness to respond to such pressure with additional escalations of its own. This was the basis of the 2017 crisis, which saw a steadily worsening action‐​reaction cycle of tests leading to sanctions, leading to more tests. Diplomacy could offer an off‐​ramp, but North Korea has set high demands to return to the table that the Biden administration is unlikely to accept and Biden is not willing to make a departure from the long‐​stated U.S. goal of complete denuclearization. Backing down from that unrealistic goal would help, but doing so would not guarantee North Korea’s return to negotiations.
Hopefully, North Korea is just posturing to make itself look defiant after new U.S. sanctions. However, when combined with the recent acceleration of missile testing, the persistent diplomatic deadlock, and Kim’s instructions at last year’s party congress, the politburo report makes for a very ominous start to a new year on the Korean peninsula.
Eric Gomez is director of defense policy studies at the Cato Institute. His research focuses on the U.S. military budget and force posture, as well as arms control and nuclear stability issues in East Asia. In 2020, Gomez was a member of the Project on Nuclear Issues Nuclear Scholars Initiative program, where he conducted research on the impacts of U.S. intermediate‐​range missiles on U.S.-China strategic stability. He also participated in the 2019 Strategic Force Analysis Boot Camp hosted by Georgetown University and Sandia National Laboratories.
19fortyfive.com · by ByEric Gomez · January 24, 2022


6. Gloria Steinem's North Korea Peace Walk Draws Ire Despite Lack of Any Better Ideas_2

Let me offer one alternate idea for Women Across DMZ. -Focus on the human rights abuses inside north Korea.

Excerpts:

Not everybody agrees. In a Post editorial headlined “Empty Marching in North Korea,” Abraham Cooper of Simon Wiesenthal Center, and Greg Scarlatoiu of the Committee for Human Rights in North Korea, blast Steinem and her colleagues for giving North Korea a chance to engage in “human rights theater intended to cover up its death camps and crimes against humanity.”


Gloria Steinem's North Korea Peace Walk Draws Ire Despite Lack of Any Better Ideas_2
发布于:2022-01-24 05:43:51
评论(24) 阅读(138)
There’s a lot written about North Korea: reports on the country’s nuclear program, speculation about its leadership, and gossip about its dictator’s hair, height and weight. But parse the streams of text the country generates each week and you’ll notice a word conspicuously missing: peace.
Though the 1950–53 Korean War ended without a treaty, leaving the Korean Peninsula divided, the question of peace has faded from view. Exasperated by Pyongyang’s intransigence on nuclear issues, tired of its propagandists’ vitriol, the international community has, for the most part, disengaged. Young South Koreans are less and less interested in their hermit neighbor. The U.S. is all about isolation — and sanctions galore.
The deepening standoff is what inspired a group of 30 female activists, including feminist icon Gloria Steinem, to plan a walk for peace at the border. The plan is to set out on May 24 across the demilitarized zone, or DMZ (which, despite its name, is among the most militarized places on earth). They will walk from the north side to the south, they hope, a gesture meant to break the standoff — symbolically at least.
There are still questions as to whether the women will make it through. They say they’ve been granted permission from authorities on both sides to walk across on May 24, although they are not sure which crossing they will use. They told Reuters that they had yet to hear back from U.N. Command, which runs the Panmunjom crossing. (There are two others.)
While in North Korea, the group’s itinerary includes meeting North Korean women and touring a maternity ward and a factory. The point is to be present, listen and engage, Steinem told the Washington Post in a pre-departure interview. “There is no substitute for putting your bodies where your concerns are,” she said.
Not everybody agrees. In a Post editorial headlined “Empty Marching in North Korea,” Abraham Cooper of Simon Wiesenthal Center, and Greg Scarlatoiu of the Committee for Human Rights in North Korea, blast Steinem and her colleagues for giving North Korea a chance to engage in “human rights theater intended to cover up its death camps and crimes against humanity.”
Responding to an item in TIME about the march, North Korean exile Shin Dong-hyuk (more on him here) also blasted the women for “smiling” at Kim Jong Un’s “evil” face. “How can they so easily find the ability to be comfortable with smiles on their faces to this dictator when so many are suffering at his hands?” we writes on his Facebook page. He wonders, he says, “if these people know the meaning of peace.”
While Cooper, Scarlatoiu and Shin are right to put the spotlight on North Korea’s appalling rights record, it’s quite the leap to say these veteran activists are ignoring it. “We have no illusions that our walk can basically erase the conflict that has endured for seven decades,” Christine Ahn, the Korean-American coordinator, told the press.
The group is pushing for empathy — not for the regime but for those suffering under it. They want to make us care about North Korea by showing us that North Koreans are people, not Hollywood caricatures. Yes, Kim Jong Un could spin this as good press. But surely outside observers will realize that a visit by peace campaigners is not an endorsement of his death camps.
The world needs to stand up to North Korea. Its record on human rights is appalling, its leader cruel. But the current strategy — isolation, condemnation and mockery — is not working. As such, it’s hard to condemn a walk for peace.
More Must-Read Stories From TIME
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Write to Emily Rauhala at emily_rauhala@timeasia.com.


7. North Korea threatens return to nuclear brinkmanship after spike in missile tests

I think the favorable relationship between China and north Korea is at best a marriage of convenience or even friends with benefits. There is no love between China and north Korea.

 Excerpts:
But Kim’s regime could be rushing them through to avoid impacting the Winter Olympics because of his “favourable relationship” with China, said Ms Varriale.
The proof of that theory will be borne out if the weapons tests stop come Feb. 4. Until then, Kim will keep the world guessing about his next move.

North Korea threatens return to nuclear brinkmanship after spike in missile tests
Sanctions fail to prevent Kim Jong-un from modernising his military capabilities
The Telegraph · by Nicola Smith,
North Korea started the year with an unprecedented flurry of January missile launches, squeezing four weapons tests into a 12-day period in what appears to be an effort to fulfil leader Kim Jong-un’s pledge to modernise the country’s war deterrents regardless of international sanctions.
Kim even appeared at one of the tests this month for the first time in nearly two years, donning a familiar pair of binoculars to personally oversee a reported hypersonic missile being launched.
Hypersonic missiles, whose increased manoeuvrability makes it difficult to intercept, are listed among the “top priority” tasks for the country’s strategic weapons development.
This week, the regime threatened to go even further, with a threat to lift its four-year moratorium on testing nuclear warheads and long-range ballistic missiles, raising fears of a fresh crisis on the Korean Peninsula.
A statement by the ruling politburo on Wednesday warned of “long-term confrontation” with “US imperialists,” reviving concerns of a return to the brinkmanship of 2017 when then US President Donald Trump threatened “fire and fury” against “little rocket man” and Pyongyang mocked him as a “mentally deranged dotard.”
The question perplexing analysts is, why so many tests now?
One explanation is that Pyongyang is merely following up on Kim’s directive to produce powerful, modern weapons to improve the country’s military capabilities.
"The increasingly unstable military environment on the Korean Peninsula and international politics have instigated calls to vigorously push forward with our national defence build-up plans without any delay," he said at the launch of his five-year plan at a key Party Congress in 2021.
“There have been a mix of both developmental tests and operational exercises this month,” said Ankit Panda, of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “The broader picture is that Kim continues to modernise his capabilities per the agenda he outlined.”
The spike in launches could simply be about Pyongyang’s military “keeping their swords sharp” in step with other countries in the region, agreed John Delury, a professor at Seoul's Yonsei University.

The launch of what North Korea claims to be a hypersonic missile Credit: KCNA/Reuters
But it could also be a way of provoking a reaction amid a three-year impasse in nuclear talks and fresh sanctions imposed by Washington earlier this month.
“Kim Jong-un is testing the waters with Washington, Beijing and Seoul, and seeing what sort of responses each step elicits,” said Mr Delury.
Crucially, it still leaves “wiggle room” to come back to the table after negotiations collapsed at a summit in Hanoi between Kim and Mr Trump in February 2019.
“If I was advising the Biden administration, I would say bite and see where it goes because we know that sanctions and censure don’t get the North Koreans to do what you want them to do,” he added.
Another significant factor is North Korea’s deteriorating domestic situation, say experts.
This time of year normally sees the military conduct its “Winter Training Cycle”, which involves individual and unit-level training of a force of over one million, but with soldiers going hungry and the country’s pandemic status unknown, the missile launches could be a distraction tactic.

A historic meeting between Kim Jong-un and Donald Trump, but talks later failed in February 2019 Credit: Evan Vucci/AP
“It could be the case that concern about the pandemic has downsized these exercises and, to shore up morale and continue developing capability, the North Koreans have opted to focus on missile launches,” said Ankit Panda.
“Kim Jong Un is celebrating his tenth year as leader, and after a challenging two years domestically as a result of Covid, extreme weather, ongoing economic issues, missile tests now are a way of signalling internally regime successes,” said Cristina Varriale, a research analyst at the Royal United Services Institute.
Finally, there’s the China factor.
While North Korea’s neighbour and largest trading partner has pushed for the easing of sanctions and recently restarted cross-border trade, few believe Beijing is actively endorsing Pyongyang’s tests.
But Kim’s regime could be rushing them through to avoid impacting the Winter Olympics because of his “favourable relationship” with China, said Ms Varriale.
The proof of that theory will be borne out if the weapons tests stop come Feb. 4. Until then, Kim will keep the world guessing about his next move.
The Telegraph · by Nicola Smith,


8. S. Korea says it's closely monitoring N. Korea's nuclear, missile activities

As they should be.

S. Korea says it's closely monitoring N. Korea's nuclear, missile activities | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 최수향 · January 24, 2022
By Choi Soo-hyang
SEOUL, Jan. 24 (Yonhap) -- South Korea's unification ministry said Monday it is keeping tabs on North Korea's nuclear and missile activities after Pyongyang hinted last week at lifting its self-imposed moratorium on nuclear and long-range missile tests.
On Wednesday, North Korea held a politburo meeting of its ruling Workers' Party, presided over by leader Kim Jong-un, and decided to consider restarting "all temporally-suspended" activities, citing Washington's "hostile policy" against its regime.
Asked about a news report that said the North appears to be maintaining its Punggye-ri nuclear test site, which it is said to have dismantled in 2018, ministry spokesperson Lee Jong-joo declined to confirm "detailed intelligence matters on North Korea's nuclear facilities" but said the government is monitoring related moves.
"The government is following North Korea's nuclear and missile activities under close South Korea-U.S. coordination," Lee told a regular press briefing.
It is also monitoring the possibility of a notable event in North Korea to mark key national holidays -- the 80th birthday of Kim's late father, Kim Jong-il, on Feb. 16 and the 110th birthday of his late grandfather, Kim Il-sung, on April 15 -- amid signs the North may be preparing a military parade.
Pyongyang tends to commemorate every fifth and 10th anniversary with major events.
"The government is ... preparing for all possibilities in cooperation with relevant agencies and countries," Lee said. "But rather than jumping to conclusions, we will make a comprehensive assessment after looking into North Korea's activities with a sense of concern."
Tensions have ratcheted up on the Korean Peninsula in recent weeks after the North conducted four missile tests -- including two of what it claims to be a hypersonic missile -- since the start of the year.

scaaet@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 최수향 · January 24, 2022

9. N. Korea likely to trigger IRBM threat capable of reaching Guam

N. Korea likely to trigger IRBM threat capable of reaching Guam
Posted January. 24, 2022 08:00,
Updated January. 24, 2022 08:00
N. Korea likely to trigger IRBM threat capable of reaching Guam. January. 24, 2022 08:00. by Sang-Ho Yun ysh1005@donga.com.
Intelligence agencies of South Korea and the U.S. are reportedly considering the possibility of North Korea firing Hwasong-12 type intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBM) which would fly over to Guam as its next threat plan.

Experts say that North Korea, which has indicated withdrawal of suspended moratorium on nuclear testing and ICBM in four years, may consider IRBM as mid-term strategies to bring more tension to the U.S. and the Korean peninsula ahead of ICBM or long-distance rockets to target the U.S. mainland.

According to a source from U.S. army stationed in Korea on Jan. 23, the intelligence agencies of South Korea and the U.S. are focusing on the movements of key North Korean bases stationed with Hwaseong-12 type IRBM, using reconnaissance satellites and planes to identify transporter erector launchers and nighttime movement.

The Hwasong-12 type IRBM was test fired three times in the presence of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in 2017. In the third test fire held at the Soonan Airport in Pyongyang in September, the missile flew around 3,700 kilometers over the sky of Hokkaido and landed in the waters of the Northern Pacific. The flight was demonstration of the missile’s capability to target Guam, the U.S. strategic location, in the event of emergency. Another source said that “North Korea is likely to mobilize Hwaseong-12 type missile within five years to gradually increase tensions and pressure the U.S., rather than choosing to directly target the U.S. homeland.“


10. U.S. ships gather in waters nearer to Korean Peninsula

:-)  "Dual use?" Warnings to China AND north Korea?

Monday
January 24, 2022

U.S. ships gather in waters nearer to Korean Peninsula

The aircraft carriers USS Ronald Reagan, Theodore Roosevelt and Nimitz, and their multi-ship strike group,s undertake four days of exercises in November 2017 in the waters between South Korea and Japan. [U.S. NAVY]
 
Three U.S. aircraft carriers and two amphibious assault ships have been tracked to Northeast Asia, near the Korean Peninsula, according to a U.S. naval organization, raising speculation that the United States is trying to send a warning to North Korea about its recent flurry of missile tests by concentrating its military assets in the region.
 
According to a Jan. 18 post by the United States Naval Institute, a non-profit professional military organization that organizes forums on strategic issues, the western Pacific is host to three out of four U.S. nuclear-powered aircraft carriers on overseas missions.
 

A map by the United States Naval Institute shows the concentration of U.S. carrier strike groups in the western Pacific, close to the Korean Peninsula. [USNI]
 
The Ronald Reagan Carrier Strike Group (CSG), named after the supercarrier USS Ronald Reagan, is stationed in Yokosuka, Japan, while the Abraham Lincoln CSG and Carl Vinson CSG are in the Philippine Sea.
 
Only the Harry S. Truman CSG is underway in the Ionian Sea.
 
The Abraham Lincoln and Carl Vinson CSGs in the Philippine Sea are also accompanied by the America Expeditionary Strike Group (ESG) and the Essex Amphibious Ready Group (ARG).
 
The number of U.S. ships in the region is almost twice as many as during the height of peak U.S.-North Korea tensions under the previous administration of President Donald Trump, when three carriers — the USS Ronald Reagan, Theodore Roosevelt and Nimitz — and their multi-ship strike groups undertook four days of exercises in November 2017 in the waters between South Korea and Japan.
 
That presence led the North’s then-ambassador to the United Nations, Ja Song-nam, to complain that the United States was pushing the region closer to war.
 
In a letter to the United Nations secretary general, Ja wrote that the United States was “running amok for war exercises by introducing nuclear war equipment in and around the Korean Peninsula, thereby proving that the United States itself is the major offender of the escalation of tension and undermining of the peace.”
 
While Trump’s administration made clear that the purpose of deploying three aircraft carriers to waters off the Korean Peninsula was to show U.S. resolve in the face of North Korean nuclear and missile testing, with Admiral Scott Swift, then-commander of the U.S. Pacific Fleet, describing the exercises as “a strong testament to the U.S. Pacific Fleet's unique ability and ironclad commitment to the continued security and stability of the region,” the current administration of President Joe Biden has made no explicit comment about the concentration of its military assets in the Western Pacific.
 
Nevertheless, the public disclosure of the ships’ movements, and their unusual concentration in countries in relatively close proximity to the Korean Peninsula, are seen by experts as a sign the United States is signaling its readiness to respond to events on the Korean Peninsula.
 
In recent weeks, the Biden administration has signaled its willingness to apply additional pressure on Pyongyang for conducting ballistic missile tests in violation of multiple United Nations Security Council resolutions.
 
The United States last week convened a closed-door Security Council meeting to call for additional sanctions on five North Korean individuals for abetting the North’s missile program.
 
However, that motion was placed on hold by China and Russia, two other permanent members of the Security Council. 
 
China said it needed more time to review the motion, while Russia said the United States needed to provide more evidence to back its proposal.

BY MICHAEL LEE [lee.junhyuk@joongang.co.kr]



11. Standing up to North Korea

Pay attention to the north but never, ever back down in the face of north Korean threats.

Excerpts:

When Lim Dong-won, head of the National Intelligence Service, visited the North on an advance team to arrange the inter-Korean summit, Kim Jong-il said, “The opposition GNP attacks the government and lodges protests for the sake of protest. Is this what democracy means?” Lim told Kim Jong-il, “Democracy is about finding harmony in diversity. The opposition party’s role is to point out the government’s shortcomings and prevent any mistakes. Sometimes it goes too far, but I think it’s better to have an opposition party for our country’s advancement.”

The Kim Dae-jung administration concluded that it was impossible for the two Koreas to coexist if there was no unity in the South. But President Moon is different. He invited then-ruling party chairwoman Choo Mi-ae and floor leader Woo Won-sik for dinner at the Panmunjom summit on April 27, 2018, but invited no opposition leaders. Despite that, Moon considered ratifying the declaration from the summit at the National Assembly. Sources said North Korean leader Kim Jong-un also was disappointed at the absence of any opposition leaders in the Panmunjon summit as he prepared for a meeting with then-opposition leader Hong Joon-pyo.

What is the outcome of turning a blind eye to the security threat from North Korean nuclear weapons and excluding opposition parties and ignoring the alliance? Moon faced the North’s labeling of him as a “boiled head of a cow,” a growing distance from an ally and being alone. That’s not all. The Moon administration maintains the worst-ever relationship with Japan, where the United Nations Command’s rear bases are located to support the U.S. Forces Korea in times of emergency.

If Uncle Sam does not pay full attention to managing the Korean Peninsula amid its conflicts with China and Russia in Taiwan and Ukraine, our security will become uncertain. It that acceptable? The next president must speak confidently to North Korea. That is the only way to maintain the alliance with the U.S. and protect national security and South Korean people’s lives.


Monday
January 24, 2022

Standing up to North Korea
 


Lee Ha-kyung
The author is the chief editor of the JoongAng Ilbo.


The North Korean nuclear crisis is going back to the “fire and fury” state in 2017. This year alone, North Korea fired four ballistic missiles, including hypersonic missiles. Pyongyang has suggested that it will end its self-imposed four-year moratorium on nuclear and ICBM tests. For a showdown with the United States, North Korea is trying to rattle the entire Korean Peninsula. The Korean Peninsula Peace Process and an end-of-war declaration — energetically pushed by the Moon Jae-in administration — are destined to fail. We must side with the U.S. and international community and issue a stern warning to North Korea.

But the Moon administration remains tight-lipped. First Vice Foreign Minister Choi Jong-kun made media appearances, but he only promoted Moon’s recent trip to three Middle East countries. Only three presidential candidates Lee Jae-myung, Yoon Suk-yeol and Ahn Cheol-soo criticized North Korea’s provocations along with the U.S. State Department. Is it possible for the Korea-U.S. alliance to continue under such circumstances?

The administration of Kim Dae-jung, whose philosophy Moon allegedly inherited, was different. At the June 15, 2000 inter-Korean summit in Pyongyang, President Kim said to North Korean leader Kim Jong-il, “The way for the North’s survival is security and economic recovery, and the United States is the only country that can resolve the challenge,” according to “Peace Maker,” written by his aide Lim Dong-won. “North Korean leader Kim must respect the Geneva Agreed Framework between the North and the U.S. to resolve the nuclear issue and successfully conclude the missile negotiation with America to improve relations as soon as possible,” Kim Dae-jung was quoted as saying. “The North must pursue self-reliance with openness, not exclusivism.”

Though the late president was criticized in the South for pushing his “Sunshine Policy” of engaging the North, he said what he needed to say — bluntly to the face of the North Korean leader. What does Moon’s silence mean? Is North Korea a “sacred cow” for his liberal administration?

If Kim Dae-jung had not been determined, the international community would have turned its back on the summit between his government and the North. One day after his return from Pyongyang, Kim telephoned U.S. President Bill Clinton and said that he had stressed to his North Korean counterpart U.S. concerns over nuclear and missile issues. “I told North Korean leader Kim that he must thoroughly respect the Geneva agreement and the joint declaration of denuclearization between the two Koreas,” Kim was quoted as telling Clinton.

According to Kim’s autobiography, Clinton congratulated him for his successful summit and expressed gratitude for raising the nuclear and missile issues. Three days later on June 19, 2000, Washington announced its decision to ease sanctions on North Korea. Following the inter-Korean summit, Clinton had planned to meet with Kim Jong-il in Pyongyang to resolve the missile issues. Although the plan never materialized because the timing overlapped with peace talks in the Middle East and the Republican Party won the next presidential election, trust between the American and South Korean leaders was deep.

The Moon administration excluded the opposition party and monopolized North Korea policy. Kim Dae-jung handled things very differently. During the summit in Pyongyang, Kim Jong-il asked him why the Grand National Party (GNP) was opposing attempts to improve inter-Korean ties. “Our unification formula was created in 1989, when the GNP was the ruling party, based on a bipartisan consensus. So the party does not fundamentally oppose the improvement of inter-Korean relations,” answered Kim Dae-jung. “And if the GNP wins the next election, its policy direction won’t be much different from ours.”

After the North Korean leader complained that the opposition party was not included in the delegation for the Pyongyang trip, the South Korean president said, “There were many opposition lawmakers who wanted to accompany us. Rep. Park Geun-hye, a daughter of the late President Park Chung Hee, had said she wanted to join, but the party leadership did not approve it. It is a shame.”

When Lim Dong-won, head of the National Intelligence Service, visited the North on an advance team to arrange the inter-Korean summit, Kim Jong-il said, “The opposition GNP attacks the government and lodges protests for the sake of protest. Is this what democracy means?” Lim told Kim Jong-il, “Democracy is about finding harmony in diversity. The opposition party’s role is to point out the government’s shortcomings and prevent any mistakes. Sometimes it goes too far, but I think it’s better to have an opposition party for our country’s advancement.”

The Kim Dae-jung administration concluded that it was impossible for the two Koreas to coexist if there was no unity in the South. But President Moon is different. He invited then-ruling party chairwoman Choo Mi-ae and floor leader Woo Won-sik for dinner at the Panmunjom summit on April 27, 2018, but invited no opposition leaders. Despite that, Moon considered ratifying the declaration from the summit at the National Assembly. Sources said North Korean leader Kim Jong-un also was disappointed at the absence of any opposition leaders in the Panmunjon summit as he prepared for a meeting with then-opposition leader Hong Joon-pyo.

What is the outcome of turning a blind eye to the security threat from North Korean nuclear weapons and excluding opposition parties and ignoring the alliance? Moon faced the North’s labeling of him as a “boiled head of a cow,” a growing distance from an ally and being alone. That’s not all. The Moon administration maintains the worst-ever relationship with Japan, where the United Nations Command’s rear bases are located to support the U.S. Forces Korea in times of emergency.

If Uncle Sam does not pay full attention to managing the Korean Peninsula amid its conflicts with China and Russia in Taiwan and Ukraine, our security will become uncertain. It that acceptable? The next president must speak confidently to North Korea. That is the only way to maintain the alliance with the U.S. and protect national security and South Korean people’s lives.

12. Unification minister to brief foreign envoys on N. Korea policy

The Minister of Unification treading on MOFA territory?

Unification minister to brief foreign envoys on N. Korea policy | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 채윤환 · January 24, 2022
SEOUL, Jan. 24 (Yonhap) -- South Korea's minister in charge of inter-Korean relations will brief foreign ambassadors and international organizations on the government's policy direction on North Korea later this week, a ministry official said Monday,
Unification Minister Lee In-young plans to share his assessment of the recent security situation on the peninsula during the Tuesday session to be attended by ambassadors and charge d'affaires of 31 countries and Seoul office representatives of eight international organizations, including the World Food Programme, ministry spokesperson Lee Jong-joo told reporters.
U.S. and European Union officials are scheduled to participate in it. But China, Russia and Japan have notified the ministry they are not sending representatives to the session due to "other schedules," according to a source.
"The Ministry of Unification has been working closely with related ministries and countries concerned for the peaceful and stable management of the situation on the Korean Peninsula," the spokesperson said. "We will continue to make consistent efforts, going forward as well, to move forward peace on the Korean Peninsula and the development of inter-Korean relations in this direction."

yunhwanchae@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 채윤환 · January 24, 2022


13. Yoon pledges to normalize military drills with U.S., enhance deterrence against North
"normalize military drills?" 


Yoon pledges to normalize military drills with U.S., enhance deterrence against North | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 황장진 · January 24, 2022
SEOUL, Jan. 24 (Yonhap) -- Main opposition presidential candidate Yoon Suk-yeol promised Monday if elected, he will normalize the joint military exercises with the United States and enhance the allies' extended deterrence against North Korea's nuclear threats.
The former prosecutor general representing the conservative People Power Party (PPP) announced his campaign pledges on national security and foreign affairs focused on achieving the complete denuclearization of North Korea and strengthening the alliance with the U.S.
"I will strengthen the comprehensive strategic alliance between Korea and the U.S. by rebuilding the alliance that has collapsed over the past five years," Yoon told reporters at the PPP headquarters in Seoul.
He vowed to normalize the allies' joint military drills, which the Moon Jae-in administration has scaled down to forge an atmosphere for dialogue with North Korea.
He also pledged to ensure the normal operation of a U.S. base in Seongju that hosts the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system to shoot down North Korean missiles.
Yoon and Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party (DP) are running neck-and-neck ahead of the presidential election scheduled for March 9.

"I will pursue peace not through subservience but through powerful national defense capability," he said.
"In order to protect the lives and safety of the people from North Korea's nuclear and missile attacks, I will spur the establishment of the Korean three-axis system, which includes Kill Chain, and upgrade cutting-edge combat capabilities, including surveillance and reconnaissance assets," he added.
The three-axis system consists of the Kill Chain pre-emptive strike platform, the Korea Air and Missile Defense system (KAMD) and the Korea Massive Punishment and Retaliation (KMPR) operational plan aimed at incapacitating the North Korean leadership in a major conflict.
He reiterated the need to deploy U.S. strategic assets, including long-range bombers, aircraft carriers and nuclear submarines, in case of an emergency and vowed to strengthen the allies' capabilities for extended deterrence through regular exercises and high-level consultations.
"North Korea has been upgrading its nuclear capabilities and is making blatant provocations, such as hypersonic missile tests. The DP administration's Korean Peninsula peace process has completely failed," he said.
He slammed President Moon for pushing for the declaration of a formal end of the Korean War while neglecting the goal of North Korea's denuclearization, which Yoon said is a prerequisite for peace and security on the Korean Peninsula.
Yoon said he would seek to resume nuclear talks with North Korea based on a predictable denuclearization road map, a reciprocity principle and close cooperation between South Korea and the U.S.
To facilitate the negotiations, he would push to establish a permanent three-way dialogue channel among the three countries at Panmunjom on the inter-Korean border or in Washington D.C.
"If North Korea actively engages in efforts for a complete and verifiable denuclearization, we will prepare a peace agreement between the two Koreas and provide full economic support and cooperation," he said.
International sanctions against the North should be maintained until its complete denuclearization, but economic support through U.N. sanctions relief is possible if the North takes practical measures for the goal, he said.
Humanitarian aid to the North will be provided without considering political situations, he said. Yoon also promised he would not tolerate human rights abuses in North Korea.
He offered a plan to build a South Korea-U.S. technology alliance to cope with challenges to economic security.
"I will upgrade (South Korea-U.S. relations) to an alliance that leads global innovation in semiconductors, batteries, artificial intelligence, bio, 6G, atomic power, aerospace and other fields," he said.
He vowed to actively participate in cooperation among democratic countries in the Asia-Pacific region to establish a "free and open" regional order.
"(South Korea) will work closely with allies and friendly countries to ensure the freedom of navigation and flight, and revitalize multilateral cooperation in the region," he said.
"I will pursue cooperation with related countries in the region by participating in vaccines, climate change and new technology working groups under the Quad partnership between the United States, Japan, Australia and India."
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 황장진 · January 24, 2022


14. North Korean hypersonic threat is an alarming wake-up call for how we innovate

Conclusion:

Developing the new tools and defending against these emerging threats must be of utmost importance for the United States. The DoD and industry must come together to build a 21st century procurement and development model for us to have any hope in defending against these emerging threat

North Korean hypersonic threat is an alarming wake-up call for how we innovate
Defense News · by Ross Niebergall · January 21, 2022
Since September 2021, North Korea has conducted three hypersonic missile tests that are destabilizing the dynamics of the region. While it was announced that the developments did not pose an immediate threat to U.S. territory or its allies, the potential for North Korea to wield such powerful weapons casts a chilling effect throughout the world.
According to reports, the missiles’ range has nearly doubled since the initial test. North Korean state media reported that the most recent test missile hit a target 900 miles away. If true, this effectively puts most of Japan within range. At this pace of development, North Korea’s hypersonic missiles will be able to target U.S. forces not only in Japan, but Guam and Alaska within a few years.
The time is now for the U.S. Department of Defense to reform how it works with industry to develop, test and deploy solutions to counter these threats before the U.S. is at a serious disadvantage.
While some might dismiss North Korea’s recent actions as a plea to be respected as a nuclear power or an attempt to lift economic sanctions, there is a history of North Korea exporting military technology to other rogue adversaries, such as Iran. The difference this time is that hypersonic missiles cost only a fraction to develop compared to a full-fledged conventional military force, and result in highly disruptive impacts on regional and global power dynamics.
Chief of Space Operations Gen. John “Jay” Raymond has indicated that the U.S. Space Force is pivoting to create a more robust and resilient future space architecture and rapidly developing satellites to detect, track, target and engage missiles. These solutions are innovative; for example, they modify the existing conventional infrared capabilities of weather satellites for our warfighters’ needs. They also are cost-effective and able to rapidly acquire and deploy as our adversaries develop threats at an alarming pace.
But we need more.
The DoD must drive forward a new procurement, testing and deployment strategy that enables us to stay on par with our enemies and protect ourselves and our allies against hypersonic weapons. Our near-peer threats aren’t waiting for extensive government analysis to deem a specific missile capable of addressing a mission, and the U.S. needs to behave similarly in deploying defense mechanisms.
We must adopt the innovation mindset of our industry peers in Silicon Valley. And while “move fast and break things” might not be the right motto for the defense industry, we need to at least start to move faster and not be afraid to break the processes that have, for decades, dictated how the DoD and industry have worked together.
This type of innovation must be supported with appropriate investment to maintain — and further enhance — the pace required to adequately address the threat at hand, if not get out ahead of it. We must be able to develop and test new technologies in parallel and account for greater experimentation. The linear development model of old just doesn’t work anymore. This requires removing the focus on funding of decades-long programs that result in outdated systems upon completion. This also requires a willingness to accept that every project won’t be a guaranteed success, but the best will rise to the top more quickly and effectively as a result.
On Jan. 7, the U.S. and Japanese foreign and defense ministers agreed to respond quickly against North Korea’s hypersonic threats, with Secretary of State Antony Blinken mentioning that the two countries are launching a “new research and development agreement that will make it easier for our scientists, engineers and program managers to collaborate on emerging defense-related issues — from countering hypersonic threats to advancing space-based capabilities.” He noted that the alliance “must not only strengthen the tools we have, but also develop new ones.”
Developing the new tools and defending against these emerging threats must be of utmost importance for the United States. The DoD and industry must come together to build a 21st century procurement and development model for us to have any hope in defending against these emerging threats.
Ross Niebergall is vice president and chief technology officer at L3Harris Technologies. He has 25 years of experience leading advanced innovation initiatives in the aerospace and defense industry.

15. North Korean state media confirms Daily NK report on special pardons

Excerpts:
Daily NK reported earlier in January that North Korean authorities would grant special pardons to most inmates at re-education camps and political prison camps overseen by the Ministry of Public Security to celebrate Kim Jong Il’s 80th birthday anniversary.
According to Daily NK’s reporting, North Korea selected recipients of these special pardons in absolute secrecy from early November to mid-December 2021.
North Korean authorities have granted special pardons alongside national holidays in the past and used them as propaganda to promote their regime.
In 2020, the mass special pardon of inmates in re-education camps to celebrate the 75th anniversary of the founding of the Workers’ Party of Korea was used to promote Kim Jong Un’s “love for the people.”
North Korean state media confirms Daily NK report on special pardons - Daily NK
Daily NK learned in early January that North Korea selected recipients of these special pardons in absolute secrecy from early November to mid-December 2021
By Seulkee Jang - 2022.01.24 3:25pm
North Korean authorities will be issuing special pardons for Kim Il Sung’s 110th birthday anniversary and Kim Jong Il’s 80th birthday anniversary, confirming Daily NK’s report that North Korea would grant special amnesty before the Day of the Shining Star (Kim Jong Il’s birthday) in celebration.
“Amnesty will be granted to those who have sinned and been found guilty before the people and the motherland, to welcome comrade Kim Il Sung’s 110th birthday anniversary and comrade Kim Jong Il’s 80th birthday anniversary,” the Korea Central News Agency reported on Jan. 20.
This was announced through the Supreme People’s Assembly standing committee’s “decree” on Jan. 13. The actual pardons will be granted on Jan. 30, according to state media. 
The decree emphasized that “The people’s trust in our merciful socialist system that leads sinners to a path of rebirth is strengthening, and proud discourse about our one-hearted unity is spreading across our land.”
It appears that North Korea is attempting to promote its regime and instill loyalty in its citizens through these special pardons. 
Kim Jong Un at the leadership podium during the Party Foundation Day military parade in Pyongyang on Oct. 10, 2020. / Image: KCNA
In particular, North Korean authorities highlighted North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s “love for the people” leadership through the decree, stating that “The people-first policy is being realized across the Party and all state activities in our country thanks to comrade Kim Jong Un’s people-focused and enthusiastic leadership.”
Daily NK reported earlier in January that North Korean authorities would grant special pardons to most inmates at re-education camps and political prison camps overseen by the Ministry of Public Security to celebrate Kim Jong Il’s 80th birthday anniversary.
According to Daily NK’s reporting, North Korea selected recipients of these special pardons in absolute secrecy from early November to mid-December 2021.
North Korean authorities have granted special pardons alongside national holidays in the past and used them as propaganda to promote their regime.
In 2020, the mass special pardon of inmates in re-education camps to celebrate the 75th anniversary of the founding of the Workers’ Party of Korea was used to promote Kim Jong Un’s “love for the people.”
Please direct any comments or questions about this article to dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.
Seulkee Jang is one of Daily NK’s full-time journalists. Please direct any questions about her articles to dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.





V/R
David Maxwell
Senior Fellow
Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Phone: 202-573-8647
Personal Email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com
Web Site: www.fdd.org
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
Subscribe to FDD’s new podcast, Foreign Podicy
FDD is a Washington-based nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

V/R
David Maxwell
Senior Fellow
Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Phone: 202-573-8647
Personal Email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com
Web Site: www.fdd.org
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FDD is a Washington-based nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

If you do not read anything else in the 2017 National Security Strategy read this on page 14:

"A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation."
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