Informal Institute for National Security Thinkers and Practitioners

Quotes of the Day:

“Out of every one hundred men, ten shouldn’t even be there, eighty are just targets, nine are the real fighters, and we are lucky to have them, for they make the battle. Ah, but the one, one is a warrior, and he will bring the others back.”

- Heraclitus

“To improve is to change, to be perfect is to change often.”

-Winston Churchill

"The scientist is not a person who gives the right answers, he is one who asks the right questions."

- Claude Levi-Strauss

1. North Korea's Kim boasts new ICBM as US flies bombers

2. North Korea’s Kim Jong Un Puts Daughter on View at ICBM Launch

3. Reveal of Kim Jong Un’s daughter sets her up as successor: Ex-DPRK officials

4. North Korea rebuked as allied countries hold emergency meeting over missile launch

5. Congress —Don’t Forget The North Korean People In Their Time Of Need

6. N.K. leader inspects Hwasong-17 ICBM test launch, declares resolute nuclear response to threats

7. Allies conduct joint air drill involving B-1B bomber after N. Korea's ICBM launch

8. Allies conduct joint air drill involving B-1B bomber after N. Korea's ICBM launch

9. U.S. has these options to stop a missile coming from North Korea

10. After North Korea's missile launch, Russia says US & allies 'testing' Pyongyang's patience

11. The F-35 Is the Fighter North Korea Fears Most

1. North Korea's Kim boasts new ICBM as US flies bombers

Keep calm and continue to deter war.

North Korea's Kim boasts new ICBM as US flies bombers

AP · by HYUNG-JIN KIM · November 18, 2022

SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — North Korean leader Kim Jong Un boasted that a recently tested intercontinental ballistic missile is another “reliable and maximum-capacity” weapon to contain U.S. military threats, state media reported Saturday. The United States responded to the North’s weapons launch by flying supersonic bombers in a show of force.

The North’s Korean Central News Agency said Kim oversaw the launch of the Hwasong-17 missile, a day after its neighbors said they had detected the launch of an ICBM that showed a potential to reach anywhere in the United States.

KCNA said Kim observed the launch with his wife Ri Sol Ju and their “beloved daughter” as well as senior officials. State media photos showed Kim walking hand-in-hand with his daughter, who was clad in a white coat, together watching a huge missile loaded on a launch truck. It’s the first time for North Korea to publish the photo of Kim’s daughter. Observers say Kim observing a weapons launch with his family suggests that he is emboldened by his advancing nuclear program.

Friday’s launch was part of the North’s ongoing barrage of missile tests that are seen as an attempt to expand its arsenal and boost its leverage in future diplomacy. Some foreign experts said the Hwasong-17 missile is still under development but is the North’s longest-range ballistic weapon designed to carry multiple nuclear warheads to defeat U.S. missile defense systems.

United States

KCNA said the missile fired from Pyongyang International Airport traveled up to a maximum altitude of about 6,040 kilometers (3,750 miles) and flew a distance of about 1,000 kilometers (620 miles) before it landed on the preset area in international waters off the country’s east coast.

“The test-fire clearly proved the reliability of the new major strategic weapon system to be representative of (North Korea’s) strategic forces and its powerful combat performance as the strongest strategic weapon in the world,” KCNA said.

“Kim Jong Un solemnly declared that if the enemies continue to pose threats to (North Korea), frequently introducing nuclear strike means, our party and government will resolutely react to nukes with nuclear weapons and to total confrontation with all-out confrontation,” KCNA said.

Kim’s statement suggests North Korea will continue its testing activities as the United States is pushing to bolster its security commitment to its allies South Korea and Japan. There are concerns that North Korea could soon conduct its first nuclear test in five years.

U.S. B-1B bombers took part in separate joint exercises Saturday with South Korean and Japanese warplanes in response to the North Korean ICBM launch. South Korean and Japanese officials said their respective drills with the U.S. bombers reaffirmed their combined defense postures.

North Korea is sensitive to the deployment of U.S. B-1B bombers because they’re capable of carrying a huge payload of conventional weapons. Earlier this month, the U.S. sent B-1B bombers streaking over South Korea as part of exercises, in the bombers’ first such flyover in five years.

On Friday, the U.S. military held separate aerial drills with South Korean and Japanese forces. South Korea’s military said it also staged its own exercises Friday simulating aerial strikes on North Korean mobile missile launchers.

The U.N. Security Council scheduled an emergency meeting for Monday morning on North Korea’s latest ballistic missile launch at Japan’s request. But it’s unclear if it can slap fresh sanctions on North Korea because China and Russia, two of the council’s veto-wielding members, opposed the United States and allies’ moves to toughen sanctions on the North over its banned tests of ballistic missiles earlier this year.

U.S. National Security Council spokesperson Adrienne Watson condemned Friday’s launch and said the United States will take “all necessary measures” to guarantee the safety of its territory and South Korea and Japan. Vice President Kamala Harris separately met with the leaders of those countries and of Australia, Canada and New Zealand who were attending a regional forum in Bangkok to discuss a joint response to North Korea.

Japanese Defense Minister Yasukazu Hamada said Friday that depending on the weight of a potential warhead, the missile had a range exceeding 15,000 kilometers (9,320 miles), “in which case it could cover the entire mainland United States.”

The North’s nuclear and missile arsenals are shrouded in secrecy. Some experts say North Korea is still years away from possessing a functioning nuclear missile, saying it has yet to prove technologies to ensure that warheads survive the harsh conditions of atmospheric reentry. But others say North Korea has likely already acquired such capacities given the number of years spent on its nuclear program.

In recent months, North Korea has performed dozens of shorter-range missile tests that it called simulations of nuclear attacks on South Korean and U.S. targets. North Korea said its tests were aimed at issuing a warning to the United States and South Korea over their military training that the North views as an invasion rehearsal. Seoul and Washington have said their regular exercises are defensive in nature.

North Korea halted weapons launches for about a week before it fired a short-range ballistic missile on Thursday. Before that launch, North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui threatened to launch “fiercer” military responses to steps by the U.S. to bolster its security commitment to South Korea and Japan.

U.S. President Joe Biden met with his South Korean and Japanese counterparts Nov. 13 on the sidelines of a regional gathering in Cambodia, issuing a joint statement that strongly condemned North Korea’s recent missile tests and agreed to work together to strengthen deterrence. Biden reaffirmed the U.S. commitment to defend South Korea and Japan with a full range of capabilities, including nuclear weapons.

Associated Press writer Mari Yamaguchi in Tokyo contributed to this report.

AP · by HYUNG-JIN KIM · November 18, 2022

2. North Korea’s Kim Jong Un Puts Daughter on View at ICBM Launch

Speculation on this begins.

Photo at the link: https://www.wsj.com/articles/north-koreas-kim-jong-un-puts-daughter-on-view-at-icbm-launch-11668844562?mod=Searchresults_pos4&page=1

North Korea’s Kim Jong Un Puts Daughter on View at ICBM Launch

The North Korean leader had kept his children out of the public eye until now, leaving watchers speculating about his succession plan

A TV screen at a railway station in South Korea on Saturday showed an image of Kim Jong Un and his daughter.

PHOTO: AHN YOUNG-JOON/ASSOCIATED PRESS

By Dasl YoonFollow

Nov. 19, 2022 2:56 am ET

SEOUL—North Korean leader Kim Jong Un oversaw the launch of the country’s largest intercontinental ballistic missile alongside his daughter on Friday, unveiling one of his children for the first time.

Photographs published by North Korean state media on Saturday showed Mr. Kim holding hands with his daughter in front of an ICBM sitting on a mobile launch platform. State media said that the missile launched on Friday was a Hwasong-17, which is believed to be the largest road-mobile, liquid-fueled ICBM in the world.

On Friday, South Korean and Japanese officials said North Korea fired an ICBM with enough range to hit the U.S. mainland, landing inside Japan’s exclusive economic zone. The ICBM, launched from Pyongyang International Airport, reached an altitude of about 3,753 miles, traveling around 620 miles for 69 minutes, Pyongyang’s state media reported on Saturday. Seoul’s military had reported a similar flight trajectory on Friday.

'A Brazen Violation’: Kamala Harris Condemns North Korea’s Missile Test

Reveal of Kim Jong Un’s daughter sets her up as successor: Ex-DPRK officials

https://www.nknews.org/2022/11/reveal-of-kim-jong-uns-daughter-sets-her-up-as-successor-ex-dprk-officials/

Some experts see sign North Korea will be nuke state for generations, while others see effort to ‘humanize’ leader

Chad O'Carroll | Shreyas Reddy November 19, 2022

Kim Jong Un walks with his daughter while holding hands at the ICBM test site | Image: KCNA (Nov. 19, 2022)

North Korean state media introduced Kim Jong Un’s daughter to the world on Saturday in a report on its latest intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) test, and this signals that she is Kim’s successor and that the DPRK will be a “nuclear state from generation to generation,” former senior North Korean officials told NK News.

Yet other experts expressed skepticism about whether Kim Jong Un really intends to hand over power one day to the young girl in red shoes and a white jacket shown holding hands with him at the test site, stating that her appearance in official propaganda may instead seek to “humanize” the DPRK ruler.

The “successful” test of North Korea’s largest ICBM, the Hwasong-17, dominated the first three pages of party daily Rodong Sinmun on Saturday, and the report specifically states Kim oversaw the launch “together with his beloved daughter and wife” Ri Sol Ju.

Little is known for certain about the leader’s children, but this daughter appears to be the same age as Ju Ae. Former NBA star Dennis Rodman revealed the existence and name of Kim’s baby girl after spending time with the leader during trips to the country in 2013.

“The first (thing to note) is that this girl will be Kim Jong Un’s successor,” a former senior North Korean official and defector told NK News of the girl’s appearance in state media, speaking on condition of anonymity.

As Kim’s daughter she would be “accepted” as the country’s leader in a manner that his sister Kim Yo Jong would not be, the ex-DPRK official said. The defector added that thanks to her pedigree she would be able to overcome barriers on women entering the male-dominated leadership of North Korea’s highly patriarchal system.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un at Friday’s Hwasong-17 missile test, with his wife Ri Sol Ju and daughter standing behind him | Image: KCNA (Nov. 19, 2022)

The former official also pointed to her introduction and potential designation as successor at such a young age as a sign that Kim could be facing a “health problem.”

Kim’s physical condition has often been the cause of much speculation about North Korea’s future, and a three-week absence in 2020 led to rumors of grave health issues before his eventual reappearance with signs that he had undergone a medical procedure.

The current leader’s first official appearance in state media came in Sept. 2010, a little over a year before his father Kim Jong Il’s death in Dec. 2011.

Former North Korean diplomat Thae Yong Ho, now a conservative member of South Korea’s National Assembly, framed the importance of Kim Jong Un’s daughter in the context of her first appearance at a test aimed at “bolstering up the nuclear forces.”

“North Korea is (a) dynasty,” he said. “The reveal of the daughter means that North Korea will be (a) nuclear state from generation to generation.”

“In other words, the world must give up its dream to denuclearize North Korea,” he added.

Women seldom reach the top rungs of Pyongyang’s hierarchy, although some individuals from powerful families and in the leader’s inner circle emerge as notable exceptions, such as Kim Jong Un’s sister Kim Yo Jong, foreign minister Choe Son Hui, close aide Hyon Song Wol and wife Ri Sol Ju.

Sokeel Park, Korea country director of the nonprofit Liberty in North Korea, told NK News that there are “differing views” among North Korean defectors on whether a woman can lead North Korea.

“But if it came to it I think they could make bloodline trump patriarchy in a similar way to queens inheriting power through royal families despite strongly patriarchal cultures in Korean and wider human history,” he said.

Kim Jong Un’s daughter holds the leader’s hand as he inspects a Hwasong-17 ICBM (top left and right) | Image: KCNA (Nov. 19, 2022)

‘HUMANIZING’ KIM JONG UN

While some see the introduction of Kim Jong Un’s daughter as a sign that she will succeed him, others think it is aimed at showing a more personal side to the leader.

Andrei Lankov, a director of Korea Risk Group and professor at Seoul’s Kookmin University, noted that Kim’s tendency to “show off” his wife and now his daughter sets him apart from his father and grandfather.

“It’s more likely that it’s like a royal celebrity cult,” he told NK News. “He has seen such an attitude in Europe, and he was probably growing [up] in the environment where … 20th century royalty, which is basically the celebrity-style royalty, is something natural.”

He added that it is possible Kim’s daughter may succeed him, as Kim is “different” from his predecessors and “far more tolerant about the very idea of women being powerful.” However, he feels that this theory remains speculative and may not be related to her introduction.

Sokeel Park concurred: “The missile backdrop is notable but rather than in terms of succession planning at such an early stage, I’d see this more in the context of Kim Jong Un being more public with his wife and family than previous Kim leaders.”

Fyodor Tertitskiy, a North Korea researcher at Kookmin University, also said he sees no great significance to her first appearing at a “great victory” for the leader like the ICBM test. But if she is indeed his successor, it would be “an enormous break with the tradition as normally the Supreme Leader does not reveal their children before appointing one of them as his successor,” he told NK News.

Pointing to her introduction to both domestic and global audiences through different North Korean outlets, he emphasized the significance of the “unusual” and “humanizing” expression in the state media report that refers to Kim’s “beloved daughter” rather than using a “lofty” description.

“I think the point here is to make the audience relate to the leader more, to create an atmosphere of celebrating it together, perhaps,” he said.

According to unconfirmed reports from South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS), Kim and Ri had three children as of Aug. 2017, but Saturday marks the first time one of them has been mentioned in state media.

Chinese researchers previously speculated that a young performer in the DPRK’s National Foundation Day celebrations in September was Kim Ju Ae, but the new images published by state media now confirm that was an entirely different girl.

Kim Jong Un and his daughter look at a Hwasong-17 ICBM on its transporter erector launcher | Image: KCNA (Nov. 19, 2022)

Edited by Bryan Betts

4. North Korea rebuked as allied countries hold emergency meeting over missile launch

North Korea rebuked as allied countries hold emergency meeting over missile launch

Reuters · by Poppy Mcpherson

Summary
North's actions "reckless" - Australian PM
South Korea's Han calls for resolute, united response
Trudeau: must be condemned by all regions of world

BANGKOK, Nov 18 (Reuters) - Leaders of the United States, South Korea, Japan and allied countries convened an emergency meeting during an Asian summit on Friday and condemned North Korea's firing of a suspected intercontinental ballistic missile, calling for a united response.

The missile, which landed just 200 kilometres (130 miles) off Japan, was capable of reaching the mainland United States, Japanese officials said.

Meeting on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meeting in Bangkok, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris called the launch a "brazen violation" of multiple U.N. resolutions and said North Korea's actions were destablising for security in the region.

South Korean Prime Minister Han Duck-soo said the North's activities were illegal and "will never be tolerated", calling for a united front and a resolute response.

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said such launches were occurring with "unprecedented high frequency" lately.

"There is the possibly that North Korea will launch further missiles," he warned.

The incident came a day after a smaller missile launch by the North and its warning of "fiercer military responses" to the U.S. boosting its regional security presence.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said North Korea's move needed to be condemned "by all regions around the world", while Australian counterpart Anthony Albanese said the missile launches were "reckless actions".

"We stand with the world, and indeed with our allies, in opposing and condemning this action in the strongest possible terms," Albanese said.

"And we stand ready to be part of a global response to this."

New Zealand leader Jacinda Ardern said she acknowledged the "anxiety, the deep concern, the security threat" felt in Japan and South Korea.

Reporting by Poppy McPherson; Writing by Martin Petty; Editing by Kanupriya Kapoor/Ed Davies

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Reuters · by Poppy Mcpherson

5. Congress —Don’t Forget The North Korean People In Their Time Of Need

With everything going on in the missile and nuclear world in north Korea, Olivia Enos provides us (and Congress) with an important reminder.

Human rights are not only a moral imperative, they are a national security issue. Kim Jong Un denies human rights to remain in power. When we talk about the nuclear threat we reinforce the legitimacy of the regime. When we focus on human rights, we educate the Korean people on their unalienable and universal human rights and give them hope and just as importantly, we undermine the legitimacy of the regime. The ROK/US alliance must add a human rights upfront approach to the north Korean strategy (and a supporting sophisticated influence campaign and the pursuit of a free and unified Korea).

Congress —Don’t Forget The North Korean People In Their Time Of Need

Forbes · by Olivia Enos · November 16, 2022

... [+]AFP via Getty Images

At a critical moment for the suffering North Korean people, Congress and the Biden administration are seemingly asleep at the wheel. The North Korean Human Rights Act (NKHRA), seminal legislation to support the North Korean people, lapsed in September this year. Given the lame duck Congress, the only hope for its passage is either in currently pending appropriations legislation, the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), or as stand-alone legislation when it will need to be reintroduced in the new Congress next year. The North Korean people cannot afford to wait for support to come as the situation in the country is incredibly dire.

During the pandemic, Kim Jong-un instituted an airtight seal along North Korea’s border, complete with shoot-to-kill orders for anyone found crossing into China. Informal cross-border trade serves as a critical lifeline for many North Koreans seeking food, information, and access to goods to trade in the informal markets. The border was so tightly monitored that the rate of escape from North Korea declined from an average of over 1,000 defectors per year to 229 in 2020, 63 in 2021, and so far in 2022, a mere 42, according to South Korea’s Ministry of Unification.

Fewer North Koreans are making it to freedom beyond the 38th parallel, and for those left behind, there is little assistance to be had. According to a report by NKNews.org, all international aid workers left North Korea as of March 2021. Conditions inside the country were so grim that even international aid workers found it untenable to continue living and residing within the country.

This is to say nothing of the Kim regime’s longstanding policies of restricting every form of freedom innate to man, imprisoning 80,000 to 120,000 individuals in modern-day gulags, and subjecting North Koreans to forced labor. There can be no doubt about the severity of conditions the North Korean people face today.

It is against this backdrop that the legislation has lapsed. And, as of now, there are no known efforts to incorporate the NKHRA into either the Senate or the House versions of the NDAA which is under active debate now. The proposed 2022 NKHRA introduced by Senators Marco Rubio (R-FL) and Tim Kaine (D-VA) would reauthorize the position of Special Envoy for North Korean Human Rights, shore up sanctions tools to target individuals who forcibly repatriate North Korean refugees, provide funding for grants that promote information access in North Korea, and underscore continued U.S. commitments to resettle North Korean refugees.

MORE FROMFORBES ADVISOR

Best Travel Insurance Companies

Amy Danise

Editor

Best Covid-19 Travel Insurance Plans

Amy Danise

Editor

Reauthorizing the NKHRA gains added urgency when seen against the backdrop of a relatively inactive Biden administration. Since taking office, the administration has only issued one tranche of sanctions targeting members of the Kim regime for their human rights violations. It has also failed to appoint a Special Envoy for North Korean Human Rights. And now Congress – the actor most consistent in standing up for the North Korean people’s human rights – may drop the ball, too.

There is a need to breathe new life into U.S. efforts to safeguard and protect the human rights of the North Korean people. In addition to prioritizing these efforts in Congress, the Biden administration should consider issuing an atrocity determination saying whether the North Korean people face ongoing crimes against humanity, and maybe even genocide. This would build upon the United Nation’s 2014 determination that the regime was committing ongoing crimes against humanity against its people.

Determinations made by the U.S. have served as catalysts for action in other contexts, for example, the atrocity determination for Uyghurs under the Trump administration and the determination against ISIS under the Obama administration. If the NKHRA is not incorporated into the NDAA, lawmakers should consider adding a provision into reintroduced legislation that would mandate that the Biden administration issue such a determination.

Congress and the administration cannot neglect the long-suffering people of North Korea. The U.S. government can demonstrate that they haven’t forgotten them by prioritizing North Korea in their legislative agenda and through elevating their cause by rightly recognizing the severity of the human rights violations they face.

Forbes · by Olivia Enos · November 16, 2022

6.N.K. leader inspects Hwasong-17 ICBM test launch, declares resolute nuclear response to threats

Kim trying to put a human face on his Hwasong 17 with his daughter?

Anyone have any idea why the ICBM units are in proximity to China? Is it because the regime believes we will not target units close to the Chinese border? Is this why so many strategic assets are positions in the area?

(3rd LD) N.K. leader inspects Hwasong-17 ICBM test launch, declares resolute nuclear response to threats | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by 김나영 · November 19, 2022

(ATTN: ADDS second photo, info about Kim's daughter, ICBM units in paras 5-8, 13-17)

SEOUL, Nov. 19 (Yonhap) -- North Korean leader Kim Jong-un declared a resolute nuclear response to threats by the United States during an on-site inspection of the country's test-firing of a Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) earlier this week, Pyongyang's state media said Saturday.

The missile, launched from Pyongyang International Airport, flew 999.2 kilometers for 4,135 seconds at an apogee of 6,040.9km and landed in the international waters of the East Sea, according to the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).

"The test-fire clearly proved the reliability of the new major strategic weapon system to be representative of the DPRK's strategic forces and its powerful combat performance as the strongest strategic weapon in the world," it said in an English-language report. The DPRK is the acronym for the North's official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.

It stressed that the firing was carried out under the "intolerable condition" that the "reckless military confrontational moves of the U.S. and other hostile forces" driving regional security to the "red line" have gone beyond the limit. It was referring to large-scale combined military drills recently staged by South Korea with some of key U.S. strategic assets mobilized.

Kim observed the test in person, along with senior North Korean officials, as well as "his beloved daughter and wife," it reported.

The KCNA released several photos that showed his daughter in a white winter jacket and black pants standing and walking together with Kim in front of the missile that sat on a launch truck. The daughter was also seen along with her mother, Ri Sol-ju, watching her father as he instructed military officials.

It marked her first official appearance in state media.

North Korea has never confirmed the existence of Kim's children. South Korean intelligence speculated Kim and his wife got married in 2009 and have two daughters and one son, born in 2010, 2013 and 2017, respectively.

Kim was quoted as saying that the launch of the ICBM has reaffirmed his regime's acquisition of a powerful and reliable capability to counter any nuclear threats.

He "solemnly declared" that "if the enemies continue to pose threats to the DPRK, frequently introducing nuclear strike means, our Party and government will resolutely react to nukes with nuclear weapons and to total confrontation with all-out confrontation."

He emphasized the need to make the U.S. and South Korea aware that "military counteractions against the DPRK lead to their self-destruction and they have to reconsider a wise choice to improve their security environment."

He said his regime should clearly demonstrate its "strongest will to retaliate the hysteric aggression war drills by the enemies."

The report also officially mentioned the existence of Pyongyang's military units in charge of operations of ICBMs for the first time.

Kim urged, "ICBM units and all the units for the operation of tactical nukes" to intensify their training so they can "perfectly discharge their important strategic duty in any situation and at any moment," according to the report.

"This is the first time that North Korea publicly mentioned ICBM units though it was already known there were several such units under its strategic forces," said Shin Jong-woo, a senior analyst at the Korea Defense Security Forum in Seoul.

"It seems like North Korea showed off its advanced ICBM capabilities to the United States with a successful firing of the Hwasong-17 at a high angle," he said.

Experts believe the North has four ICBM units -- three near its border with China and one in the central region.

South Korea's military said Friday the North launched an ICBM, apparently at a lofted angle, which traveled around 1,000 kilometers at an apogee of some 6,100km at a top speed of Mach 22.

On Nov. 3, the North test-fired the same ICBM, which apparently ended in failure.

The Hwasong-17, dubbed "monster" for its size, is known to be capable of carrying multiple warheads with a range of around 15,000km, enough to reach the entire U.S. mainland.

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by 김나영 · November 19, 2022

7. N. Korean missile test proves need to fully implement N. Korea sanctions: State Dept.

Yes, sanctions are important. See Anhtony Ruggiero here: "Biden warns North Korea on nuclear test. But he needs to act — now." https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/biden-xi-china-meeting-brings-north-korea-crosshairs-sanctions-needed-rcna57110

We should recall that one of the key elements of the Biden Administration north Korea policy is full implementation of all UN Security Council Resolutions. See description of the policy here: "How Joe Biden Can Push Back Against North Korea’s Political Warfare Strategy," https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/01/how-joe-biden-can-push-back-against-north-koreas-political-warfare-strategy/

But sanctions are not enough. And sanctions alone do not make a strategy.

With a foundation of strong deterrence and defense we need a superior political warfare strategy that includes sanctions but also take a human rights upfront approach, a sophisticated influence campaign and the pursuit of a free and unified Korea.

Now is the time to deal with north Korea through political warfare: "North Korea’s Provocations: Time For An Asymmetric Approach," https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/10/north-koreas-provocations-time-for-an-asymmetric-approach/

(LEAD) N. Korean missile test proves need to fully implement N. Korea sanctions: State Dept. | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · November 19, 2022

(ATTN: UPDATES with remarks from NSC spokesman John Kirby in last 9 paras; TRIMS)

By Byun Duk-kun

WASHINGTON, Nov. 18 (Yonhap) -- The United States condemned North Korea's ballistic missile launch on Friday, calling on all countries to fully implement U.N. Security Council sanctions imposed on the reclusive state.

State department spokesperson Ned Price also called on Pyongyang to halt its military provocations and instead engage in sustained dialogue.

"The United States condemns the DPRK's ballistic missile launch," Price said in a released statement, referring to North Korea by its official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.

"This launch is a clear violation of multiple United Nations Security Council resolutions, and demonstrates the threat the DPRK's unlawful weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missile programs pose to the DPRK's neighbors, the region, international peace and security, and the global non-proliferation regime," Price added.

North Korea fired an apparent intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) on Friday (Seoul time), marking its eighth test launch of an ICBM this year.

The country has fired more than 60 ballistic missiles this year, the largest number of ballistic missiles it fired in any given year.

Price highlighted the need to rein in North Korea's advancing missile capabilities.

"This action demonstrates the need for all countries to fully implement DPRK-related U.N. Security Council resolutions that are intended to prohibit the DPRK from acquiring the technologies and materials needed to carry out these destabilizing tests," the department spokesperson said.

In a separate statement released earlier, White House National Security Council (NSC) spokesperson Adrienne Watson said the U.S. will take "all necessary measures to ensure the security" of the U.S., South Korea and Japan.

"We urge all countries to condemn these violations and call on the DPRK to come to the table for serious negotiations," said Watson.

John Kirby, NSC coordinator for strategic communications, reaffirmed U.S. commitment to engaging with North Korea, saying the U.S. is "still willing" to meet with the North Koreans.

"We are still willing to sit down without preconditions and try to come to a negotiated agreement on the denuclearization of the peninsula. That is the ultimate goal. That has not changed," he told a virtual press briefing.

Kirby noted Friday's ICBM launch itself did not immediately pose any threat to the U.S. and its allies, but said the U.S. still remains "deeply concerned" about North Korea's advancing missile capabilities.

"Every single time they launch, they learn, and that's concerning," he said. "Even if the launch is a failure or only partially successful, they still learn, their program still grows and it gets to improve, and, of course, that's destabilizing not just to the peninsula but to the region itself."

"And so even while we have extended and continue to extend an offer for dialogue, again without preconditions, we are working very hard to make sure that we have in place adequate defensive capabilities not only unilaterally and bilaterally with Japan and South Korea but also trilaterally," he added, partly referring to joint military exercises the three countries recently held bilaterally and trilaterally.

North Korea earlier blamed the joint military drills as a reason for its latest military provocations. Pyongyang has fired more than 40 missiles since September 25, including a barrage of 23 missiles launched on Nov. 2 alone.

Kirby said there has not been any direct communication between the U.S. and North Korea on the latter's ongoing military provocations, while Pyongyang also remains unresponsive to any U.S. overture.

"We have made very clear that we are still willing to conduct dialogue with the North without preconditions to work towards denuclearization of the peninsula," the NSC official reiterated.

"Obviously, they have not responded or engaged. That offer still stands," he added.

bdk@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · November 19, 2022

8. Allies conduct joint air drill involving B-1B bomber after N. Korea's ICBM launch

Kim must get the message that these are not one off activities in response to his actions. These are routine events, the new normal. Despite the US seemingly distracted around the world with Putin's War in Ukraine and defense of Europe, PRC competition, the South China Sea, deterrence of war in Taiwan,and Iran's malign activities, etc, the US can project power to Northeast Asia whenever the alliance desires. After our decline in readiness dating to the 2018 exercise decision and impact of COVID, the new normal or steady state is a return to sustaining a high (or even higher) state of readiness that includes the routine deployment of strategic assets to the region.

The message to Kim? Your strategy is failing and cannot be successful in the face of the strength of the ROK/US alliance.

Allies conduct joint air drill involving B-1B bomber after N. Korea's ICBM launch | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by 김나영 · November 19, 2022

SEOUL, Nov. 19 (Yonhap) -- A U.S. B-1B Lancer strategic bomber joined a South Korea-U.S. joint air drill Saturday, one day after North Korea fired an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) toward the East Sea, military officials said.

According to the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS), the supersonic bomber made a sortie over South Korea's air defense identification zone (KADIZ) escorted by South Korea's F-35A jets and U.S. F-16 fighters.

On Friday, North Korea fired a Hwasong-17 ICBM, which is known to carry multiple warheads and have a range of around 15,000 kilometers, long enough to cover the entire U.S. mainland.

"Through this drill, we have once again demonstrated the joint military capacity of the South Korea-U.S. alliance and Washington's commitment to protecting the Korean Peninsula and providing extended deterrence," the JCS said.

The JCS also said Seoul and Washington will closely cooperate to monitor North Korea's military actions and improve their joint response to the North's provocations.

nyway@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by 김나영 · November 19, 2022

9. U.S. has these options to stop a missile coming from North Korea

Of course this is focused on after a missile is launched. How about left of launch?

What about cyber (we allegedly have done this in the past - See David Sanger's work), sabotage, subversion? We have never implemented a real strategic strangulation campaign. And then there is the influence campaign that should be a supporting effort.

U.S. has these options to stop a missile coming from North Korea

Newsweek · by Katherine Fung · November 18, 2022

North Korea has launched two missile tests in the last two days, and Japan believes the regime's intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) have the potential to reach the U.S.

On Friday, South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff reported that an ICBM was launched from North Korea's capital Pyongyang around 10:15 a.m. local time and that it flew about 621 miles east, reaching an altitude of 3,790 miles.

"The ICBM-class ballistic missile launched this time could have a range of over 15,000 km [approximately 9,321 miles] when calculated based on the flight distance of this ICBM," Japanese Defense Minister Yasukazu Hamada said in a statement.

"It depends on the weight of the warhead, but in that case, the U.S. mainland would be included in the range," Hamada added.

The U.S., which called the missile test a "brazen" violation of U.N. resolutions, is analyzing the details of Friday's launch, but it is not the first time intelligence officials have prepared for a strike to make its way across the Pacific Ocean.

Back in 2017, then-Defense Secretary James Mattis said another missile launched by North Korea that year showed its ability to hit "everywhere in the world," including the U.S.

However, there are options to prevent a destructive missile strike from reaching the U.S., and intelligence officials have worked to reinforce such defense systems as North Korea has continued to develop its long-range weapons.

Above, a South Korean Air Force F-35 fighter is seen during air drills in response to North Korea's ICBM launch on November 18, at an undisclosed location in South Korea. North Korea has launched two missile tests in the last two days, and Japan believes the regime's intercontinental ballistic missiles have the potential to reach the U.S. South Korean Defense Ministry/Getty Images

Steve Shinkel, a professor of air and space warcraft at the U.S. Naval War College, told Newsweek that the Department of Defense has 44 Ground Based interceptors (GBIs) located in California and Alaska that have the capability to intercept an ICBM coming from North Korea.

GBIs are anti-ballistic missile components to the U.S.' Ground-Based Midcourse Defense system that are "designed to deter an adversary with a limited number of nuclear weapons, such as North Korea may possess," Shinkel explained.

Although they wouldn't be able to defeat a warhead coming from Russia or China, GBIs can intercept a North Korean ICBM during the mid-course phase of flight outside the atmosphere.

However, Shinkel said the development of hypersonic glide vehicles continues to pose a "significant threat and challenge" because the U.S. has not yet developed a defense for the hypersonic weapon technology that Russia and China have pursued. On March 19, Russian military officials claimed they fired hypersonic missiles for the first time.

Shortly after, General Glen VanHerck, commander of United States Northern Command (USNORTHCOM) and North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD), urged the DoD to develop the technology to help "determine whether an attack is underway and provide national leaders with as much time and as many options as possible."

"I cannot defend, nor am I tasked to defend, against a hypersonic glide vehicle attack," VanHerck said in a March 24 statement.

"It is imperative that the Department of Defense develop and field an integrated space-based domain awareness network capable of detecting and tracking ICBMs, hypersonic weapons, and cruise UNCLASSIFIED 17 missiles as quickly as possible," he added.

Newsweek · by Katherine Fung · November 18, 2022

10. After North Korea's missile launch, Russia says US & allies 'testing' Pyongyang's patience

I had to clean the coffee from my computer screen after reading Ryabkov's comments. But we should expect this from Russia. Be on the lookout for when pundits in South Korea and the US borrow these themes and messages. It is always America's fault.

After North Korea's missile launch, Russia says US & allies 'testing' Pyongyang's patience

republicworld.com

Last Updated: 18th November, 2022 15:35 IST

After North Korea's Missile Launch, Russia Says US & Allies 'testing' Pyongyang's Patience

Russian Deputy FM Sergey Ryabkov on Friday said Moscow is concerned over the ongoing situation on the Korean Peninsula and North Korea's missile launches.

Written By

Amrit Burman

Twitter/@ASECONDCHANCE

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov said on Friday that Moscow is concerned over the ongoing situation on the Korean Peninsula and North Korea's missile launches. He added that Washington and its allies were testing Pyongyang's patience. According to Sputnik, Ryabkov further said that the theme of the denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula was curtailed at the initiative of the US.

"It is like they [the US and allies] are testing Pyongyang’s patience. We are following developments with concern. And we note that the work in those formats that were previously used to use the theme of the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula was curtailed at the initiative of Washington. But this does not mean that there are no contacts at all; they will continue at the New York site," Ryabkov told reporters.

The diplomat blamed the United States for not taking any measures to control the situation around the peninsula, saying that Washington is "comfortable" with the current situation in the peninsula, but "Russia is not". Speaking on North Korea's latest missile launch, Ryabkov said that the sides should move away from confrontation.

"First of all, we remind you that the Russian position in favour of developing a certain scheme for moving forward and away from the constantly recurring confrontational spiral around what is happening in the region has been repeatedly stated, developed, and modified. In each of its elements, it is a demonstration that we are committed to a diplomatic, political way forward—as an alternative to this escalation," Ryabkov told reporters.

North Korea's missile could have reached US territory, avers Japanese Defense Minister

This development comes as Pyongyang launches a new intercontinental ballistic missile that is believed to have landed in Japan's exclusive economic zone near the island of Hokkaido. Following the incident, Japanese Defense Minister Yasukazu Hamada averred that the missile could have travelled over 15,000 kilometres (9,320 miles) and blasted into US mainland if it had been launched in a different direction.

North Korea's missile launches 'needlessly' increasing tensions: White House

Meanwhile, the White House has issued a statement saying that North Korea's ballistic missile is "needlessly" increasing tensions and can destabilise regional security. After getting a brief on the entire situation, US President Joe Biden said, "His national security team will continue close consultations with allies and partners—building on the President’s trilateral meeting on Sunday with Prime Minister Kishida Fumio of Japan and President Yoon Suk Yeol of the Republic of Korea."

Image: Twitter/@ASECONDCHANCE

First Published: 18th November, 2022 15:35 IST

republicworld.com

11. The F-35 Is the Fighter North Korea Fears Most

Be afraid. be very afraid. The F-35 should be able to penetrate every square inch of north Korea and strike targets with impunity. The regime is deathly afraid of allied air power. A fundamental propaganda theme is how US air power destroyed north Korea in 1950-1953.

The F-35 Is the Fighter North Korea Fears Most

19fortyfive.com · by Brent M. Eastwood · November 18, 2022

Earlier this month after joint American and South Korean “Vigilant Storm” military exercises, North Korea test-launched up to 30 ballistic missiles in two days and an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile on November 3. To further provoke South Korea, the North conducted at least 180 flights with various warplanes. The South Koreans responded with 80 of its own airplanes, including the F-35. It appears Seoul’s decision to include the Lightning II in its air force was a prudent move.

What Can North Korea Fly?

The South Korean F-35s aim to outclass any fighter that North Korea possesses. The North hasn’t purchased a new warplane in over the last three decades. The fighters and bombers aren’t modern and there are only 56 clunky MiG-23 and 35 better MiG-29 fighters, 34 average Su-25 attack planes, and 80 aged H-5 bombers – all at least 30 years old. The rest of its total of 572 airplanes are ancient MiG-17s, MiG-19s, and MiG-21s. Those have been obsolete for years. But the North is expected to throw everything it has into a potential aerial battle and execute the equivalent of a mass wave attack.

F-35 and More: South Korea’s Air Force Is Much More Modernized

By comparison, the South Koreans have at least 40 F-35As and the government has ordered another 20-piece Lightning II batch to arrive by 2028. The South Koreans have a total of 890 aircraft including helicopters, transports, and trainers. A little over half of those are fighters, so estimate about 450 tactical warplanes.

First Day of Battle

An air war over North Korea would start with the Republic of Korea’s forces launching a massive cruise missile attack to take out air defenses, SAMs, radars command and control, and airplanes on the ground. This would have to be accurate surgical strikes as the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) has numerous networks of caves and underground features to hide and protect its military assets. If the United States joined in, it could fly stealth bombers from America to further saturate DPRK. Electronic warfare and command and control aircraft would take to the skies. This initial wave was called the “bloody nose” strike by former White House National Security Advisor HR McMaster.

Then It Is Time for the Lightning II

Next would be the F-35s. Forty would be a strong force that could do ground damage plus outfly North Korea’s fighters and evade radar. These would be joined by South Korean F-15s and F-16s. It would be a huge dogfight, but the stealth F-35s should have the upper hand while the conventional fighters would take the brunt of the casualties. South Korea still flies older F-4s and F-5s.

Keep Buying the F-35

That’s why the F-35 is so integral to South Korea and its air force cannot buy enough of them. The F-15K Slam Eagle is a good fighter too and could best the DPRK’s MiG-29s, arguably their best fighter.

Able to Keep the Peace Too

The F-35 should be able to fly missions near the DMZ without detection for intelligence and reconnaissance data collection. This would be a peacetime gem as well as a wartime stalwart. The F-35 would have many advantages in a dogfight and combined with the F-15K Slam Eagle, the ROK pilots would have the edge in combat. They would only be limited by fuel and the number of weapons.

U.S. Air Force Maj. Kristin Wolfe, F-35A Lightning II Demonstration Team commander and pilot, showcases the unique aerial capabilities of the USAFs most advanced 5th generation multi-role stealth fighter, the F-35A, during Wings Over Solano at Travis Air Force Base, California, May 15, 2022. The Wings Over Solano open house and air show provided an opportunity for the local community to interact directly with the base and its Airmen and see capabilities on full display at Travis AFB. (U.S. Air Force photo by Heide Couch)

Keep Up Realistic Training

ROK aviators simply have to fly the F-35 as much as possible to become dominant at night and in all weather. They would form the vanguard in battle and mount serious capabilities to enforce the ROK’s territorial integrity. As long as the United States and South Korea continue to conduct joint military exercises, Kim Jong Un will fire missiles and launch fighters in a show of force. The ROK air force will respond in kind. It will be necessary to avoid confrontations that could spark an accidental shootdown or some other mishap that could spark an intense confrontation between the two sides that could lead to a broader conflict. If that happens, the F-35 will play an outsized role.

Expert Biography: Serving as 1945’s Defense and National Security Editor, Dr. Brent M. Eastwood is the author of Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare. He is an Emerging Threats expert and former U.S. Army Infantry officer. You can follow him on Twitter @BMEastwood. He holds a Ph.D. in Political Science and Foreign Policy/ International Relations.

19fortyfive.com · by Brent M. Eastwood · November 18, 2022

De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Senior Fellow, Foundation for Defense of Democracies

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Senior Advisor, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

Phone: 202-573-8647

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com

V/R

David Maxwell

Senior Fellow

Foundation for Defense of Democracies

Phone: 202-573-8647

Personal Email: d avid.maxwell161@gmail.com

Web Site: www.fdd.org

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

Subscribe to FDD’s new podcast, Foreign Podicy

FDD is a Washington-based nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

If you do not read anything else in the 2017 National Security Strategy read this on page 14:

"A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation."

Access NSS HERE

Company Name | Website