THIS WEEK IN WASHINGTON
May 6, 2022
Welcome to the Georgia edition of This Week in Washington. Thank you for your interest in politics and policy from the Peach State to the Potomac.
 
Heard on the Hill covers Monday’s leak of an early draft of the Supreme Court’s majority opinion on the upcoming Roe v. Wade case – and the security, legal, and political implications of both the leak and the ultimate decision. Al Jackson brings us his Defense Update. Ramona Lessen monitored Tuesday’s hearing before the Senate Armed Services Subcommittee on Cybersecurity on Artificial Intelligence Applications to Cyberspace Operations.
 
Jesse Weathington gives us some insight into Georgia with his Gold Dome Report. Don’t miss the Infographs for an in-depth look at current hot topics.
 
We have decided to run our Total Spectrum Spotlight video series during the weeks in between the editions of This Week in Washington. So, be on the look out for it next week. Next week’s Total Spectrum Spotlight will be with Kevin Hassert who was not only the Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors in the Trump Administration, but he was also the economic advisor to President George W. Bush’s 2004 campaign, Senator John McCain’s 2008 Presidential campaign, and Mitt Romney’s 2012 campaign.
 
This Week in Washington will be back in two weeks.
 
As always… stay safe, healthy, AND sane.

Todd Smith
Chairman, Georgia Group

Jesse Weathington
Director, Georgia Group
Heard on the Hill
By Steve Gordon, Total Spectrum Managing Partner
 
Official Washington was flabbergasted to read Monday night that Politico had gotten their hands on an early draft of the Supreme Court’s majority opinion on the upcoming Roe v. Wade decision.
 
At one level, this story is about a leak at an institution where leaks are exceptionally unusual. I had dinner last evening with Senator Mike Lee (R-UT), who clerked for Justice Samuel Alito at the Supreme Court. Senator Lee said that the Supreme Court has about 260 employees, including four clerks and one executive secretary for each of the nine justices.
 
He told us that when he was a clerk, each draft decision went through a paper shredder horizontally before it went through the shredder vertically – and then the confetti went into a burn bag. Senator Lee was absolutely clear that a true investigation by the FBI would certainly find the culprit.
 
At another level, it’s a legal case around one of the most emotional issues of my life. I sat down this morning with one of the best lawyers within our firm. He has read the draft and said it was very well written. His thoughts on Justice Alito’s draft: “Roe disrupted state abortion legislation when it was decided in 1973, so it’s not at all surprising that almost half of the states are changing or will change their abortion legislation. There is general agreement among conservative lawyers that the 1973 decision was not legally sound. The question for the court is whether they should correct federal law and disrupt the status quo. It appears that the majority of the court says we should.”
 

...continued after the Gold Dome Report
Partner and
Georgia Group Chairman

Partner and
Georgia Group Director


Partner

Partner
INFOGRAPHS
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What you need to know about Labor Policy and the Midterms
USDA's climate-smart commodity program explained
What you need to know about Cyber Incident
Reporting Rules
A new wave?
Most states see Covid increase in April
What you need to know about Biden's Broadband Expansion
Gold Dome Report
by Jesse Weathington, Partner and Georgia Group Director

This week saw the beginning of early voting statewide for the 2022 primary elections; a record 27,298 Georgians cast in-person ballots on Monday, the first such opportunity. A handful of precincts reported technical issues, but no widespread problems have surfaced, pointing to a smooth roll-out of the changes implemented since the 2021 Election Integrity Act. 
 
Despite the bombshell news from the Supreme Court this week, expect the midterm primaries which close May 24 to deliver little in the way of surprises. Governor Brian Kemp is likely to win his primary contest with former Senator David Perdue; based on all publicly available information the Governor leads by a comfortable margin despite a late and seemingly lackluster show of support from former President Donald Trump. That will tee up the long-heralded rematch between Kemp and Democratic rival Stacey Abrams for control of the Governor’s Mansion. The primaries on both sides of the Lt. Governor’s race (an open seat being vacated by Geoff Duncan) seem to the most fluid at this point, with a likely run-off in both cases due to the sheer number of candidates. This contrasts with the rest of the top of the ticket for Democrats, where Stacey Abrams and Senator Raphael Warnock have not had to fend off serious challenges.
 
Both sides are wasting no time in using the SCOTUS news to drive turnout and enthusiasm among their polarized bases. By my unscientific sample of four fundraising emails by Tuesday morning in the wake of the SCOTUS leak, this issue will come to dominate the public square until the midterms and beyond. 
 
The actual electoral fallout remains to be seen – reproductive rights are the original culture war issue, after all. The question of impact becomes an exercise in weighing base turnout motivation against the countervailing force the other team brings to bear. Given that the President’s party generally does poorly in midterms, on balance one would guess that the Democratic base may be more unified and motivated to turn out than they otherwise would have been absent the SCOTUS leak. Voters are already well sorted on this issue, so it may not end up mattering more than say, inflation. Aside from the 6th Congressional District and a couple of other intra-party congressional matchups, Georgia’s relatively uncompetitive congressional and legislative maps mean that major partisan shifts in the composition of the General Assembly and congressional delegation are unlikely in any scenario; the biggest question mark is the impact on the top-of-ticket statewide races for Governor and U.S. Senate, as well as the other constitutional officers.
Heard on the Hill, cont'd.

There’s a third level – and that’s the political fallout. The view of most people that I have talked with – and a view that I wholeheartedly share – is that a wave is forming at the back of Republicans based on economic and educational issues, fueled by the President’s low polls. The Court’s decision in June will create intensity on both sides of the issue but that intensity is already baked in the base of both parties, and it’s a long time until November. The Court’s June decision will impact a few races in November, but only on the margins.
 
The First Significant Primary
Ohio’s Republican voters gave the nod to novelist J.D. Vance in his U.S. Senate primary race. Some will call it a win for former President Trump, because Vance was Trump’s choice. But I would argue that an equally big winner in Ohio was Peter Thiel.
 
Mr. Thiel, a founder of PayPal and a very early investor in Facebook, created and funded an Ohio super PAC in support of J.D. Vance. 
 
The First Sighting of a Possible Lame Duck
Senator John Thune (R-SD), the Senate Republican Whip, was asked this week if there will be a lame duck session after the election. He said that Republicans would like a lame duck to deal with some tax issues that have implications for the economy. Senator Thune indicated that he expects Democrats will also have some key matters they would like to resolve in a lame duck, especially if the November elections turn out as expected.
 
A December lame duck session seems a long time away, but legislating will really stop around the end of July. Campaigning in earnest will start in early August and will run through the November elections. The year is going to fly by.
Defense Update
By Al Jackson, Total Spectrum Strategic Consultant
 
The administration’s Fiscal Year 2023 funding request is $813 billion, $773 billion of which is for the Defense Department. Soon after the release of the budget, the Armed Services submitted a list of “unfunded” programs which did not make the President’s budget totaling $21.4 billion, or nearly 3% of the $773 billion Pentagon total.
 
The armed services’ FY 2023 unfunded lists were somewhat evenly divided: $5.1 billion for the Army, $4.6 billion for the Air Force, $639 million for the Space Force, $4 billion for the Navy, and $3.5 billion for the Marine Corps.
 
More money will likely be added on top of the unfunded billions so that the defense budget can account for expected inflation. The administration built the defense budget on an assumption of 4% inflation in defense, a measure that differs from the consumer price index. Defense inflation is predicted to be higher in FY2023.
 
Spiking fuel prices will cost the Pentagon $3 billion more than expected in FY2022, and it will have to go to Congress for more money, a senior official said in congressional testimony on Wednesday. Comptroller Mike McCord indicated during a hearing on the Pentagon’s $773 billion FY23 defense budget request that fuel will cost $1.8 billion more than expected for the rest of the year ― after Congress added $1.5 billion for increased fuel costs in the budget signed into law last month.
Hearing Report
By Ramona Lessen, Executive Director, Total Spectrum
 
Senate Armed Services Subcommittee on Cybersecurity hearing on Artificial Intelligence Applications to Cyberspace Operations
Tuesday, May 3, 2022; 2:30 p.m.
 
To view a livestream of the hearing please click here.
 
Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV), Subcommittee Chairman
 
Senator Mike Rounds (R-SD), Subcommittee Ranking Member
 
Witnesses:
Dr. Andrew Moore
Vice President and Director of Google Cloud Artificial Intelligence
Google Corporation
 
Dr. Eric Horvitz
Technical Fellow and Chief Scientific Officer
Microsoft Corporation
 
Dr. Andrew Lohn
Senior Fellow Center for Security and Emerging Technology
Georgetown University
This e-newsletter is produced by Total Spectrum/SGA and Total Spectrum Georgia. The views expressed herein may include subjective commentary and analysis that are the views of the editors and authors alone. Information in this e-newsletter is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but that cannot be guaranteed as independently investigated or verified. Information in this e-newsletter is not an endorsement, advertisement, recommendation, or any type of advice, political, legal, financial, or otherwise. With questions about the content of this e-newsletter, please contact Total Spectrum Georgia.