ON-FARM THOUGHTS: Moisture Perspective: Quarter Section Rain Bingo

by Larry Wegner, MFGA Producer Relations

Are we as bad off as we think we are or are told we are?

We are having another warm and sunny day again. The provincial weather station that I can see off our front step has been hit by a shower again. And we missed it again. This has been a year of quarter section rain BINGO. If your number is called, you get some moisture on your field and in many cases, the quarter section beside that same field is dry. At our family farm north of Virden, Manitoba, we have been wetter than some of our neighbours and drier than others in this year’s moisture received. All we can do is work with what we receive and try to get the most use from it.

This is our sixth drier-than-normal year in a row. The wettest we have been during those six years is we had an eight-week wet period from mid-April to mid-June 2022. Recently, my wife Rosemary and our sons Max and Herbert talked as a family about rebuilding our herd numbers back to 2021 levels. In the end, we decided not to bring in outside cattle, but to slowly rebuild back from within our own herd. In spring we questioned our logic – that is what farm families do, right? Nowadays, we are glad we did what we did.

While cattle prices have gone up this spring, no one has made a profit on this market. Yet, as farmers and ranchers, we are often eternal optimists. But, coming off these dry years and high commodity prices, it will take several years of profit to make the cow-calf producers want to expand again. The local annual crops look good around here, the combines are starting to roll and soon we will have yield and quality reports. The perennial crops started off strong, took a turn with conditions and have been downhill since.

In the last week of July, I was on two different pastures tours. It was like being in two different worlds. The first tour visited three types of grazing operations in the Assiniboine West and Souris Watershed Districts. One was a grasser-yearling operation, the second was a total grazer operation and the third was an experienced grazer: aka: yours truly: the old guy and our family farm. The common thread was all three operations were working out in front with the grass on their farms. Each of the producers explained their goals and if they were achieving them and what they could do differently. Each of the producers had different practices but shared the same goal of profitable grazing livestock. The tour the next day was full of local producers with constant farmer to farmer chatter about herd reduction and if they will rebuild their herds later or if they are out for good. The tales of two different worlds, same industry.

Late in June, Stats Canada came out with their crop inventory numbers. The annual crops were what was expected. The shocking surprise to me was the decrease in perennial forage acres over the last five years as we lost 1.2 million acres or 8.5 per cent. The forage land that was lost to annual crop production is most likely in canola, wheat and any other crop that can generate positive cash flow for the farm. That is where the profit has been over that time. That is not a right or wrong logic but just following the money. Around here, there has been a big movement of cull cows going to town for the grind (burger) market. The USDA cow herd numbers came out last week and were down three per cent over last year’s numbers. The Stat Canada cow herd numbers should be out in a few weeks. I believe we will be down by that much or more if the numbers are correct. The cow and feeder numbers in Manitoba have been steadily declining for 15 years due to these pressures. I am not sure a short-term price correction will be enough to start beef and forage industries to rebuild in our province. Theres’s optimism and then there’s bottom line business decisions. The two seem at opposite ends of growing the cow herd currently.

Several years ago, there was a movement called “The hundred-mile diet”. It was the start of the concept and push to source your food locally to improve quality and freshness while supporting local enterprises and farms. A local said one day how silly that was, she thought one hundred feet was more viable thirty or forty years ago. But now there are not many mixed farm producers left around. I remember something I read back then where an expert reviewed the hundred-mile diet and concluded that it was more viable to buy from the store than buy from the producer. In the world of picking up a small package of ground meat on the way home from work it would be more viable. But if you had 200 pounds of locally sourced beef in the freezer at home it would not be.

I am a staunch supporter of buying locally. We buy our vegetables and flour locally. We produce our own proteins for our own use. This year my sons did not want to raise chickens, so we bought a year supply from a local young couple. After reading the book “What Your Food Ate” by David R, Montgomery and Anne Bikle, the section on wheat and flour quality made us reach out and try some. What a world of difference the taste and texture the bread had. We found a regenerative grain producer and tried their flour. While it did cost more for a kilogram of flour the price per loaf of bread was the same as one slice of their flour equaled two slices of the regular flour. In the summer heat we bought a few loaves of mass-produced bread. While a treat to not have to heat the house up while making our own bread, we do eat more as it is less filling and became a carrier for the condiments.

Nothing gets me going more than telling me that 80 per cent of precipitation of 1-3 millimeters is rain. I call that a light to heavy dew, we work through that. That 60 per cent of 25 mm of rain is heavy rain with large areas of flooding where we need to take cover and protect our farms and family. I call those good soaking rains. If 25 mm causes flooding on your lands, you need to look at your soil health, you should and need to capture all that 25 mm. When there is no lightning, we work outside and if there is lighting, we work inside. We do not hide from it. I have great respect for the local forecaster who tries to adjust the forecast for their area.

However, my main advice to you is: Do not let the drought get you down. It will rain again and when it does, we will be glad to get it. Reach out to family and friends to see how they are managing stress. We are all stronger reaching out and asking, “How are you Doing” and let them talk to you. The biggest thing we can do is just listen. Check out MFGA past blogs on mfga.net about dealing with drought. Check out other sites on drought management, there are many to select from. BCRC has calculators to help figure out the days of forage you have left and what do you have left for feed options. Being proactive will always be better than being reactive: “Deal with today and plan for tomorrow”. If this drought has caught you flat footed, you need to ask yourself what you could have done better and write it down to help with your planning going forward so that you can remember exactly what your thoughts were at that time.

What is your plan if we get 30 mm of rain next week?

What is your plan if we do not get that much?

During these times, many producers are considering their next moves and future. Some may leave the industry. Only they can make that call and, if they do, they obviously feel it is the right action for them at the time. Please support them.

And finally, check out and attend the 2023 MFGA Regen Ag Conference November 13-15 in Brandon. All the speakers will challenge you to do better and meeting like-minded producers will help you look ahead with a positive attitude.

Have a great rest of summer,