Quotes of the Day:
”To this day America is still the abiding alternative to tyranny. That is our purpose in the world—nothing more, nothing less. To carry out that purpose our fundamental aim in foreign policy must be to ensure our own survival and to protect those others who share our values. Under no circumstances should we have any illusions about the intentions of those who are the enemies of freedom. We must understand those who would dominate us and deal with them with determination.”
- Ronald Reagan
"Russia should be thrown back into the Stone Age"
Garry Kasparov, Russian human rights activist and former world chess champion
"To those people in the huts and villages of half the globe struggling to break the bonds of mass misery, we pledge our best efforts to help them help themselves, for whatever period is required — not because the communists may be doing it, not because we seek their votes, but because it is right. If a free society cannot help the many who are poor, it cannot save the few who are rich."
- John F. Kennedy
1. N. Korea fires 1 ballistic missile toward East Sea: S. Korean military
2. Human rights conditions in N. Korea worsen during pandemic: U.S. official
3. Satellite imagery shows ongoing operations at N. Korea's Yongbyon nuclear site: report
4. North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Center: In Full Swing
5. Both Lee and Yoon promise to build ‘united government’
6. Russia funds trading in Korea hammered after invasion and sanctions
1. N. Korea fires 1 ballistic missile toward East Sea: S. Korean military
As expected. We should consider that an ICBM test is coming. And we should be ready for it.
North Korea’s Ballistic Missile Test: A 6 Step Strategy To Respond (2022)
https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/01/north-koreas-ballistic-missile-test-a-6-step-strategy-to-respond/
A Strategic Strangulation Campaign for North Korea: Is the International Community Ready for What May Come Next? (2016)
https://www.fpri.org/article/2016/03/a-strategic-strangulation-campaign-for-north-korea-is-the-international-community-ready-for-what-may-come-next/
Support to Korean Resistance: Has the Time Come? (2015)
https://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/support-to-korean-resistance-has-the-time-come
A Strategy for Dealing with North Korea’s Provocations (2013)
http://icks.org/n/data/ijks/1482461222_add_file_4.pdf
(3rd LD) N. Korea fires 1 ballistic missile toward East Sea: S. Korean military | Yonhap News Agency
(ATTN: UPDATES with S. Korean military's explanation, details throughout)
By Song Sang-ho and Kang Yoon-seung
SEOUL, March 5 (Yonhap) -- North Korea fired a ballistic missile toward the East Sea on Saturday, South Korea's military said, in the latest flare-up of tensions just four days ahead of the presidential election here.
The Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said it detected the launch from around the Sunan area in Pyongyang at 8:48 a.m. and that the missile flew around 270 kilometers at a top altitude of 560 km.
The latest launch, the North's ninth show of force this year, came less than a week after it claimed to have conducted a "reconnaissance satellite" development test that the South called a ballistic missile launch.
"The North's recent series of ballistic missile launches are a significant threat to not only the international community but also peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula," the JCS said in a text message sent to reporters. "We strongly urge the North to immediately stop them."
The North appears to have launched the missile at a steep angle from a Transporter Erector Launcher (TEL) from the Sunan airfield, a JCS official said.
"For other specifics, the intelligence authorities of South Korea and the United States are conducting an additional analysis as we leave various possibilities open," the official told reporters on condition of anonymity.
Given its range and other details, Saturday's missile appears to be similar to the one fired also at a steep angle at the Sunan airfield on Feb. 27, the official said.
If launched at a standard angle, the missile would have traveled between 1,000 km and 1,200 km -- a flight distance for a medium-range ballistic missile, analysts have said.
South Korea's presidential National Security Council (NSC) condemned the North's missile launch, calling for it to halt acts that raise tensions on the Korean Peninsula.
In a press release, the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command also denounced the launch and urged the North to refrain from "further destabilizing acts."
"The U.S. commitment to the defense of the ROK and Japan, remains ironclad," the command said, referring to South Korea by its official name, Republic of Korea.
The North's "satellite" development test on Feb. 27 marked the resumption of its rocket launches following a weekslong hiatus that it apparently imposed during the Beijing Winter Olympics apparently in respect for China, its traditional ally and key economic patron.
The test signaled that irrespective of South Korea's election set for Wednesday, Pyongyang is forging ahead with its vaunted defense projects unveiled at the eighth congress of its ruling Workers' Party in January last year.
The projects include developing a hypersonic warhead, a "super-large" nuclear warhead and an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) using an "underground or ground solid-fuel engine."
Some observers said the North's continued saber-rattling could reflect its eagerness to bolster its military presence while the U.S.' attention is focused on the armed conflict in Ukraine.
Concerns have persisted that the North would continue to stage more provocative acts, like an ICBM test, under the disguise of a satellite launch, as it made a veiled threat in January to lift its yearslong self-imposed moratorium on nuclear and long-range missile tests.
Since the start of this year, the North has launched a barrage of missiles, including an intermediate-range ballistic missile, using various platforms, such as a road-mobile launcher and a railway-borne one.
Saturday's launch came as Pyongyang seeks to strengthen internal solidarity amid a deadlock in nuclear talks with Washington and economic woes aggravated by the COVID-19 pandemic.
sshluck@yna.co.kr
colin@yna.co.kr
(END)
2. Human rights conditions in N. Korea worsen during pandemic: U.S. official
The COVID paradox: the regime has been deathly afraid of an outbreak and how that will devastate the elite, the military and the population so it has taken extreme measures to both try to protect against an outbreak as well as to cover up any information about any kind of outbreaks occurring. But it has also seized the opportunity from COVID to tighten control of the people by implementing draconian population and resources control measures in the name of COVID to further oppress the population and exert greater control than ever before. And this makes the suffering of the people even worse.
Human rights conditions in N. Korea worsen during pandemic: U.S. official | Yonhap News Agency
By Byun Duk-kun
WASHINGTON, March 4 (Yonhap) -- Human rights violations in North Korea have significantly worsened due to unnecessarily restrictive and harsh measures taken by Pyongyang to prevent the spread of COVID-19, a U.S. state department official said Friday.
Scott Busby, acting principal deputy assistant secretary for democracy, human rights and labor, stressed the need for the U.S. and others to continue calling out human rights abuses in North Korea, arguing the reclusive state remains "sensitive" to external pressure.
"The DPRK's human rights record has worsened since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic," the U.S. diplomat said in a hearing hosted by the Committee for Human Rights in North Korea, an independent research organization based in Washington.
"Early in 2020, the DPRK became one of the first countries in the world to entirely shut its borders in the face of the pandemic. Over the course of the pandemic, the government intensified restrictions on communications with the outside world," he added.
DPRK stands for the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, the North's official name.
Busby noted the North also has in place a "shoot-on-site" order to stop anyone from entering or fleeing the country.
"The imposition of COVID-19 measures that far exceeded necessary public health protections have forced international organizations and most diplomats to cease operating inside the country, which of course makes it even more difficult to get reliable information about what's going on inside," he said.
He underscored the need for the international community to continue calling out North Korea's bad behavior, which he said included the operation of prison camps where "roughly 80,000 to 120,000 individuals including children" are subjected to forced labor and inhumane conditions.
"It is clear that the DPRK is sensitive to external pressure on human rights," said Busby. "This was most evident in the months after the U.N. Commission of Inquiry Report was released when the DPRK engaged in a diplomatic charm offensive or (I) should say tried to engage in a diplomatic charm offensive."
In 2021, the U.S. named the North Korean regime a state violator of religious freedom for a 20th consecutive year, while also keeping North Korea on its list of governments with a "policy or pattern of human trafficking" for a 19th consecutive year in its respective annual reports.
"Consequently, the U.S. strategy to promote respect for human rights in the DPRK has involved three lines of effort," said Busby.
"First, we seek to increase international awareness of the dire human rights situation in the DPRK. Second, we aim to increase access to information for citizens of the DPRK about life outside their country. And lastly, we seek to ensure those responsible for serious human rights abuses in the DPRK face consequences for their actions."
To this end, the U.S. is working to increase the flow of outside information into the North, Busby said, adding, "Anecdotal reports indicate that North Koreans who have been exposed to uncensored information are increasingly aware of how their government's policies inhibit their personal aspirations and violate their human rights."
"We are sending a strong and clear message that those with connections to human rights abuses will face consequences," said he.
bdk@yna.co.kr
(END)
3. Satellite imagery shows ongoing operations at N. Korea's Yongbyon nuclear site: report
Satellite imagery shows ongoing operations at N. Korea's Yongbyon nuclear site: report | Yonhap News Agency
By Byun Duk-kun
WASHINGTON, March 4 (Yonhap) -- North Korea appears to continue producing fissile materials for nuclear weapons at its main Yongbyon nuclear facility, a U.S. monitoring website said, citing recent satellite imagery of Yongbyon.
38 North also suggested that work may be underway to further expand the Yongbyon site.
"Recent commercial satellite imagery of North Korea's Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center indicates ongoing production of fissile material—both plutonium and enriched uranium," it said in a report published Thursday.
"These activities, as well as the gradual expansion and evident occupation of personnel housing over the past few years, all suggest that the complex is primed for expansion," it added, noting the North restarted its 5 MW(e) reactor at Yongbyon last summer.
The report pointed to melting snow on the top of various facilities at Yongbyon, including the building that houses the reactor and "several support buildings" for the uranium enrichment plant, as evidence of their continued and ongoing operation.
It said work to build an experimental light water reactor (ELWR) at Yongbyon also appeared to be continuing, again citing snow melt seen on the roof of the turbine building.
"At this stage, the activities observed in Yongbyon indicate ongoing fissile material production as well as the groundwork for further expansion," it said.
"If the ELWR becomes operational, as it appears to be nearing completion, North Korea's plutonium production capacity could increase substantially," it added.
The report, however, noted no sign of work to expand or modify the radiochemical laboratory at Yongbyon has been observed, which would suggest the North's increased production capacity for fissile materials.
bdk@yna.co.kr
(END)
4. North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Center: In Full Swing
Conclusion:
At this stage, the activities observed in Yongbyon indicate ongoing fissile material production as well as the groundwork for further expansion. If the ELWR becomes operational, as it appears to be nearing completion, North Korea’s plutonium production capacity could increase substantially. However, this increased production capacity will also require modifications to the RCL to increase its reprocessing capacity. To date, no signs of substantial work in this area have been observed.
North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Center: In Full Swing
Recent commercial satellite imagery of North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center indicates ongoing production of fissile material—both plutonium and enriched uranium—which is necessary for Kim Jong Un to achieve his stated nuclear development goals, as well as evidence of operations at each of the major facilities around the nuclear research center.
Activity has been increasing at Yongbyon over the past few years, especially after the failed Hanoi Summit. New construction of support buildings throughout the complex was started more than a year ago. Last year, activity at the Radiochemical Laboratory (RCL) complex suggested reprocessing was underway, followed by the restarting of the 5 MWe Reactor. These activities, as well as the gradual expansion and evident occupation of personnel housing over the past few years, all suggest that the complex is primed for expansion.
5 MWe Reactor
The 5 MWe Reactor, which was restarted last summer after a two-year hiatus, appears to still be operating, as evidenced by recent snow melt at the reactor building, adjacent turbine hall and several support buildings. In addition, signatures, such as occasional steam emissions and the steady, warm water discharge into the Kuryong River, have been observed since last year.
Despite this period of operations, there are no signs to date of preparations for the first core discharge, such as increased vehicles and activity around the spent fuel storage building. In fact, there is no snow melt on the building roof, suggesting little to no activity is taking place inside.
In the past, North Korea has maximized the production of plutonium by running the reactor up to two years before refueling. However, the announced plans to further develop miniaturized nuclear warheads, which requires plutonium with an isotopic composition of more than 95 percent (Pu-239), can best be achieved by shorter irradiation campaigns and partial core replacements. Therefore, instead of a two-year cycle, refueling is likely to be carried out more frequently and can be done without shutting down the reactor.
Figure 1. Overview of 5 MWe Reactor area with visible snow melt and water discharge.
Image Pleiades © CNES 2022, Distribution Airbus DS. For media options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.
Experimental Light Water Reactor (ELWR)
Work continues to complete the ELWR. Snow melt on the roof of the turbine building suggests possible testing activities in the areas that house the secondary cooling systems of the reactor continue. Some cooling test activities were also reported in July 2021. This, together with the construction of the cooling water pump house and electric switchyards, indicate that the reactor might be approaching its inauguration.
Figure 2. Overview of ELWR with visible snow melt.
Image Pleiades © CNES 2022, Distribution Airbus DS. For media options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.
Radiochemical Laboratory
The Thermal (Steam) Plant, supporting the RCL, operated for about five months last year, suggesting a reprocessing campaign had been carried out. Since then, little activity has been observed at this facility. However, while there have been no signs of preparations for a new reprocessing campaign, imagery does show snow melt on the building that prepares chemicals for the reprocessing plant. This is a normal support activity as chemicals are needed for the plant and its waste storage even when no reprocessing operations are underway.
Figure 3. Overview of Radiochemical Laboratory.
Image Pleiades © CNES 2022, Distribution Airbus DS. For media options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.
Uranium Enrichment Plant (UEP)
Snow melt is observed on several support buildings for the UEP. In particular, snow melt at the uranium hexafluoride (UF6) feed and withdrawal sections of the plant suggests that the facility is likely operating. Progress made in the construction of the new building remains unclear.
Figure 4. Overview of the Uranium Enrichment Plant and Uranium Conversion Plant with visible snow melt and new construction underway.
Image Pleiades © CNES 2022, Distribution Airbus DS. For media options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.
Uranium Conversion Plant
The plant converting yellowcake to uranium dioxide (UO2) has operated occasionally during past years. This suggests there has been a steady supply of feed material available for the old Fuel Rod Fabrication Plant, which fabricates fuel after conversion of UO2 to a uranium metal alloy for the 5 MWe Reactor.
There appear to be some activities at the possible fabrication plant for the ELWR. However, it is unknown where the required enriched UO2 is obtained. Judging from the size of the plant, it is possible that enriched UF6, obtained, for example, from the UEP, is converted to UO2 at this location.
Other Activity
The most recent imagery revealed a snow-blanketed Yongbyon complex, but with clues to ongoing operations. This included snow melt on certain building roofs and snow removal from the roadways, indicating ongoing activity throughout the complex. In particular, snow melt is observed at installations such as the Institute of Radiochemistry and Isotope Production Plant (IPP, or Radioisotope Production Plant), but the scope of the work carried out at these facilities remains unknown.
There are also three large buildings under construction in the research and development (R&D) area, one of which may be in operation, while work on the other two is proceeding slowly.
Conclusion
At this stage, the activities observed in Yongbyon indicate ongoing fissile material production as well as the groundwork for further expansion. If the ELWR becomes operational, as it appears to be nearing completion, North Korea’s plutonium production capacity could increase substantially. However, this increased production capacity will also require modifications to the RCL to increase its reprocessing capacity. To date, no signs of substantial work in this area have been observed.
5. Both Lee and Yoon promise to build ‘united government’
I hate to express Moriarty's negative waves but in today's political culture (e.g., divide), whether in South Korea or the US, I think this will be very hard to accomplish.
Both Lee and Yoon promise to build ‘united government’
Posted March. 05, 2022 07:54,
Updated March. 05, 2022 07:54
Both Lee and Yoon promise to build ‘united government’. March. 05, 2022 07:54. .
Both the ruling Minjoo Party of Korea’s presidential candidate Lee Jae-myung and the main opposition People Power Party’s Yoon Seok-youl pledged to form a “united government.” On Thursday, Lee said, “I will make an unwavering effort to build a pragmatic united government of all citizens regardless of ideologies and political orientation. Likewise, Yoon said in an agreement on the single candidacy with former presidential candidate Ahn Cheol-soo that he will make sure that a future-oriented and reformative government based on unity among citizens helps normalize how governance works. Seemingly, a united government has belatedly become a keyword in the run-to the presidential election.
It is Lee who first set out his idea to build a united government presumably to defend against the merger of Yoon and Ahn. It was one of the election tactics on Lee’s side to isolate Yoon by sharing a vision for government unity that involves the minor progressive Justice Party’s Sim Sang-jung while driving Ahn out of the landscape of single candidacy. It is assessed that Yoon declared his plan to ensure a united government along with change of regime following his successful merger with Ahn for the same reason as Yoon. This explains why he started speaking up for a united government against Lee’s attempts to besiege him.
Desirably, the main presidential candidates have started competing for a united government, albeit late, although they have come under criticism for lacking in future-oriented discourses and views of our time. Virtually, whoever will be elected president is highly likely to represent only half of the nation as Lee and Yoon are considered the two final electable candidates. Not only the political arena but also voters are divided deeply in two amid the fiercely growing political battle across the nation. Aside from talking of their election strategies, we should hope a united government to become a reality for the sake of win-win situations and comprehensive governance.
Although Lee and Yoon seem confident about their pledge, they only vaguely tell voters how to make it come true. Reportedly, Lee proposed to Ahn, Sim and even Woori Republican Party’s candidate Cho Won-jin that they should combine forces for victory. This only raises vagueness around on what philosophy and value Lee tries to merge various groups and include them in the cabinet if he takes control of governance. Also, Yoon has not provided any clear view of what kind of a united government he is dreaming of as it is doubtful that he can realize a united government if the PPP merges with People Party right after the election.
Many of former presidents also promised to ensure unity during their candidacy, which only turned out to be empty words. For this election season, here came a united government. It should not be left undelivered. To help voters make a well-informed decision, Lee and Yoon should detail what they mean by a united government to clarify how to adopt a responsible prime minister system; whom to appoint regardless of political leaning; how to reflect opinions both from the ruling and opposition parties; etc. until the election day arrives.
7. Russia funds trading in Korea hammered after invasion and sanctions
Friday
March 4, 2022
Russia funds trading in Korea hammered after invasion and sanctions
A view of the square outside the damaged local city hall of Kharkiv on March 1 [AFP/YONHAP]
Investors holding Russia-themed financial products are facing major losses following the global economic sanctions against the country.
Russian stocks plunged and the ruble weakened over the past week as the country's banks face restrictions on using SWIFT, the global messaging system that enables bank transactions, and as some exports to Russia were prohibited.
The Korean government agreed to join economic sanctions against Russia last week.
Trading on the Moscow Exchange has been suspended for almost a week since Russia's MOEX index plunged as much as 45 percent before recovering slightly to close down 33 percent on Feb. 24, when Russia began its attack on Ukraine. The currency fell by almost 30 percent from 110 rubles per dollar as of Friday morning from 84.95 rubles per dollar on Feb. 24.
In Korea, nine public Russia funds are offered, including an exchange-traded fund (ETF), according to FnGuide.
The price of the ETF, Kindex Russia MSCI (Synth), fell more than 55 percent as of Friday compared to Feb. 24. It currently trades around 10,000 won ($8).
The ETF invests in the over-the-counter swaps based on the MSCI Russia 25% Capped Index.
It "faces concern about being suspended or getting delisted," wrote Korea Investment Management, the manager, on its website, warning investors to be "extremely careful."
Korea Investment Management said the ETF's asset value could go to zero.
Individual investors net purchased 26 billion won of the ETF shares between Feb. 21 and Feb. 28, some on the expectation that the geopolitical tensions would quickly ease.
Punters gambling on Russia funds are also facing big losses.
"I signed up for the Russia fund last week on the expectation that the war would finish quickly," said a 33-year-old investor discussing a Feb. 24 investment. The person added that the current return is 14.5 percent, but fears it will plummet after ruble currency valuation is reflected in the product, which takes two days.
Multiple brokerages stopped dealing in Russian stocks, including search engine and web portal Yandex, payment service provider Qiwi and Ozon, an e-commerce company. They cited a sales ban by the Office of Foreign Assets Control under the U.S. Treasury Department.
NH Investment & Securities, Shinhan Investment and Toss Securities are among the brokerages ending trade in these stocks.
BY JIN MIN-JI, KIM YEON-JOO [jin.minji@joongang.co.kr]
V/R
David Maxwell
Senior Fellow
Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Phone: 202-573-8647
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
FDD is a Washington-based nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.
