Washington Whispers
We are in the closing stretch of election season which, for those of you who live in swing states like Pennsylvania, Georgia, or Arizona, means the deluge of political ads will soon end.
Democrats have long faced an uphill climb because historically the party out of power picks up seats in the midterm election of a President’s first term. In addition, the economy is dragging, compounded by generational inflation.
Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich said earlier this year that Republicans would win as many as 70 seats in the House. But predictions of a Republican tsunami have subsided. The most recent forecasts have shown everything from Democrats holding steady, which is an outlier, to Republicans winning 25-30 seats, which would be the outlier in the other direction.
Former House Speaker Tip O’Neill famously said that “all politics is local,” but that saying may be less true in 2022 than at any time in American politics. The country seems like it is smaller than it has ever been. We have homogenized news and politics, and we have national House members who run on national issues instead of constituent services or local projects.
Many of the old rules in politics make it likely that Republicans will walk away with this midterm election, but there are two reasons they may not: the Supreme Court’s decision overturning Roe v. Wade and former President Donald Trump. Former President Trump remains a polarizing figure and one who turns out Democrats. He weighed in on Republican primaries and he continues to hold rallies around the country and energizes Democratic voters nearly as much as it energizes Republicans.
Republicans have also struggled because some of their endorsed candidates are not from the mainstream. These candidates are giving many independents pause in voting for them.
Ultimately, the question will be whether voters – particularly in toss-up states – cast their ballots based on those concerns or based on their concerns about the economy. If voters vote on social issues or personality concerns, Democrats likely will keep this election close and may even retain the Senate. If this election is a referendum on inflation or gas prices, Republicans will likely control both houses of Congress.
The Pennsylvania Senate race is an excellent example. Television’s Dr. Mehmet Oz won the Republican primary and is being challenged in the general election by Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman, who won the Democratic primary. Fetterman, a liberal, painted Oz as a New Jersey resident out of touch with Pennsylvania voters, and these attacks and greater name identification allowed Fetterman to start the general election with a double-digit lead.
But Mr. Fetterman suffered a serious stroke earlier this year. Voters’ concern about his physical condition combined with the national trend toward Republicans have made this a dead even race.
The two candidates had their one and only debate this week. Pennsylvania voters had their chance to see how Oz and Fetterman stack up, with special focus on Fetterman’s health and Oz’s relatability. It was a 60-minute high-stakes event.
If you extrapolate the Pennsylvania dynamic to other states, you will find some similar dynamics at the local level, overlayed with national trends.
I agree with Steve Gordon when he says the House will likely be in Republican control come January. Some of the statistical models show them winning close to 80 times out of 100 when they run simulations. That is not a guarantee, just a likelihood.
In the Senate, where it felt like Democrats had a slight advantage in August, the battle for control feels like every bit of a toss-up. Races like Pennsylvania’s, with their complicated dynamics, will decide what happens in the Senate. On Democrats’ best day their ceiling is 52 seats in the Senate… and that is their very best day. The same can be said for Republicans. It is hard to see a path to more than a 52-48 majority for either party, meaning the Senate will need 60 votes to pass most anything, unless the majority party uses the reconciliation process again.
Shortly after the 2018 midterm election – one with high turnout by historical standards – it was estimated that 113 million people voted, many of them early. As of Tuesday, more than eight million people had voted early across 39 states. We are closing in on 10% of ballots already cast, which means that some of the closing arguments are being made to an increasing number of people who have already cast ballots.
Steve Gordon and I will provide post-election analysis on everything from leadership races to committee leadership, and what might happen in November and December’s lame duck session.