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Informal Institute for National Security Thinkers and Practitioners

Quotes of the Day:

“My personal position on counterinsurgency in general, and on Iraq and Afghanistan in particular, could therefore be summarized as "Never again, but..." That is, we should avoid any future large-scale, unilateral military intervention in the Islamic world, for all the reasons already discussed. But, recognizing that while our conventional war-fighting superiority endures, any sensible enemy will choose to fight us in this manner, we should hold on to the knowledge and corporate memory so painfully acquired, across all the agencies of all the Coalition partners, in Afghanistan and Iraq. And should we find ourselves (by error or necessity) in a similar position once again, then the best practices we have rediscovered in current campaigns represent an effective approach: effective, but not recommended.”
- David Kilcullen, The Accidental Guerrilla: Fighting Small Wars in the Midst of a Big One

“I want to scream again, and I remember that last time I felt this way, riding with Baba in the tank of the fuel truck, buried in the dark with other refugees. I want to tear myself from this place, from this reality, rise up like a cloud and float away, melt into this this humid summer night and dissolve somewhere far, over the hills. But I am here, my leg blocks of concrete, my lungs empty of air, my throat burning. There will be no floating away. There will be no other reality tonight.”
- Khaled Hosseini, The Kite Runner

"A great many people think they are thinking when they are merely rearranging their prejudices."
- William James


1. U.S. considering housing Afghan evacuees at American bases in S. Korea: report
2. Gyeonggi Gov. Lee pledges to meet with Biden, Kim Jong-un to broker denuclearization deal
3. Nuclear Weapons in South Korea? Not So Fringe Anymore.
4. Seoul FM, U.S. envoy discuss ways to resume Korean peace process: ministry
5. S. Korea in vaccine swap talks with Romania: foreign ministry
6. Korea's strategic importance growing amid US-China tensions
7. Steps for Korea's 'graduation'
8. New COVID-19 cases dip to 1,600s, virus curbs extended for 2 weeks





1. U.S. considering housing Afghan evacuees at American bases in S. Korea: report
The single line in the Wall Street Journal article regarding terminal locations for Afghan refugees certainly could create a diplomatic challenge (especially given COVID protocols and host nations rules)

From the WSJ article: Other bases being studied as potential housing sites include Fort Pickett, Va., Camp Atterbury, Ind., Camp Hunter Liggett, Calif., and Fort Chaffee, Ark. Pentagon officials are also looking at American bases in Japan, Korea, Germany, Kosovo, Bahrain and Italy, officials said.

Excerpts:
Later in the day, the head of South Korea's ruling Democratic Party (DP) also said that no discussions have taken place with the U.S. on the issue but added he doubts whether the idea is "appropriate."
"It has not been discussed with our government, and I don't think it's realistic," Rep. Song Young-gil told reporters. "I doubt whether it's appropriate. Considering the logistical problem, wouldn't they have to go to nearby countries?"
There was a mixed bag of reactions from the political circle.
The main opposition People Power Party (PPP) said South Korea should "cooperate closely" with the U.S. on the matter as an ally and should also consider receiving evacuees "on humanitarian grounds."
However, Her Eun-a, PPP's chief spokesperson, added, "When it comes to long-term stay in Korea beyond temporary housing, we have to be very careful."


(3rd LD) U.S. considering housing Afghan evacuees at American bases in S. Korea: report | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 유지호 · August 22, 2021
(ATTN: ADDS comments in last 7 paras)
SEOUL, Aug. 22 (Yonhap) -- The United States is considering using American military bases in South Korea as one of the housing sites for evacuees from Afghanistan, along with other overseas bases, including those in Japan, the Wall Street Journal has reported.
The Pentagon is "looking at American bases in Japan, Korea, Germany, Kosovo, Bahrain and Italy" as existing housing sites in Qatar and elsewhere are filling up quickly, the paper reported Saturday (U.S. time), citing unidentified officials.
The report also said the White House is expected to consider activating the Civil Reserve Air Fleet to have major U.S. airlines help with efforts to transport tens of thousands of Afghan evacuees from bases in the region.
Dulles International Airport, outside of Washington, D.C., is expected to become the central processing site for a surge of Afghan evacuees, it said.

The U.S. Forces Korea (USFK), however, said, "To date, USFK has not been tasked to provide temporary housing or other support for anyone departing Afghanistan," while the U.S. Defense Department is providing transportation, housing, medical and logistical support for some Afghan immigrants and their family members.
"If tasked, USFK will work with the Department of State, Department of Defense and the Republic of Korea government while maintaining our ROK-U.S. Alliance and obligation to provide and maintain a robust combined defense posture," USFK spokesperson Col. Lee Peters said in a release. The Republic of Korea is South Korea's official name.
Later in the day, the head of South Korea's ruling Democratic Party (DP) also said that no discussions have taken place with the U.S. on the issue but added he doubts whether the idea is "appropriate."
"It has not been discussed with our government, and I don't think it's realistic," Rep. Song Young-gil told reporters. "I doubt whether it's appropriate. Considering the logistical problem, wouldn't they have to go to nearby countries?"
There was a mixed bag of reactions from the political circle.
The main opposition People Power Party (PPP) said South Korea should "cooperate closely" with the U.S. on the matter as an ally and should also consider receiving evacuees "on humanitarian grounds."
However, Her Eun-a, PPP's chief spokesperson, added, "When it comes to long-term stay in Korea beyond temporary housing, we have to be very careful."
The minor progressive Justice Party had previously expressed support for housing Afghan evacuees. In a press release on Friday, Kang Min-jin, who heads the youth wing of the party, said, "If there are Afghan evacuees traveling to South Korea, we must accept them. We can start by guaranteeing stable stay for the Afghans currently in the country."
On Thursday, Kang wrote on her Facebook that South Korea "should welcome Afghans with open arms."
Gyeonggi Province Gov. Lee Jae-myung, a presidential hopeful, appeared noncommittal in his Facebook post Sunday.
"Our government will continue to be forced to make choices," Lee wrote. "I hope our community spirit will be on display, as we adhere to principles of respecting human rights, promoting world peace and prohibiting discrimination based on gender, religion and ideology."


(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 유지호 · August 22, 2021




2. Gyeonggi Gov. Lee pledges to meet with Biden, Kim Jong-un to broker denuclearization deal


Unless there is a "northern wind" (as in the past when north Korea raised tensions that actually assisted the conservatives), north Korea does not usually impact the Presidential elections.


Gyeonggi Gov. Lee pledges to meet with Biden, Kim Jong-un to broker denuclearization deal | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 장동우 · August 22, 2021
By Chang Dong-woo
SEOUL, Aug. 22 (Yonhap) -- Gyeonggi Province Gov. Lee Jae-myung, the front-runner in the ruling Democratic Party's presidential primary race, pledged Sunday to meet with U.S. President Joe Biden and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un to broker a step-by-step deal to resolve the North Korea nuclear issue.
In a press conference on his Korean Peninsula peace policy, Lee said it was "realistic" and "practical" for both Pyongyang and Washington to "seek an agreement and implementation of denuclearization in a phased and synchronized" method.
"The likelihood of success by pushing the North to abandon its nukes first or seeking a package settlement through a so-called big deal is slim," Lee said at the press conference held at the residence of late President Kim Dae-jung in Seoul.
Lee vowed to come up with concrete means to conditionally lift sanctions and pursue a phased and synchronized denuclearization approach, then "meet with U.S. President Joe Biden and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in person and resolve the stalemate."

The governor also said he will persuade the United Nations to provide a comprehensive and permanent sanctions exemption on key inter-Korean programs, such as the Kaesong Industrial Complex, and projects to connect and modernize railways and roads between the divided countries.
Lee, however, also suggested he won't just go easy on North Korea, saying that joint projects should be based on the principle of mutual interest.
He also pledged to demand change from the North on what he called the country's "misguided practices and attitudes," adding, "If North Korea engages in wrongful moves, we will clearly state that it has done something wrong."
On relations with China, Lee proposed a vision of "practical diplomacy" centered around South Korea's national interest, while committing to remain resolute against Japan's historical and territorial claims but also seek active cooperation with Tokyo on areas relating to the economy and diplomacy.
odissy@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 장동우 · August 22, 2021



3. Nuclear Weapons in South Korea? Not So Fringe Anymore.

This will not be helpful. Of course it is not a foregone conclusion that the pendulum will swing in the Korean presidential elections and a conservative will be elected. Historically there are two conservative and two liberal presidents before the pendulum swings.


Nuclear Weapons in South Korea? Not So Fringe Anymore.
Conservatives in South Korea’s upcoming presidential election support the country’s nuclear armament. This trend may be a sign that Washington might soon be dealing with an incoming administration who potentially champions a dangerous pro-nuclear policy.
The National Interest · by William Kim · August 21, 2021
Don’t be taken aback if one of the hottest issues for South Korea’s upcoming presidential election is nuclear weapons—more specifically, the need for South Korea to possess its own. While North Korea has refrained from nuclear weapons testing since 2017, the progress they demonstrated in the past has moved the nuclear debate to the forefront of South Korean society. This year, Kim Jong-un’s remarks about strengthening the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’s (DPRK) nuclear arsenal delivered at the recent Eighth Party Congress was enough for South Korean conservatives to once again stand in favor of developing their own nuclear weapons. With the South Korean presidential election in March 2022 quickly approaching, political discourse in Seoul about nuclear armament is a trend not to be ignored by the U.S. government.
Hawkish voices in favor of nuclearization in South Korea are not new. Since 2006, the year of DPRK’s first nuclear test, the South Korean public and right-leaning politicians have consistently voiced concerns about South Korea’s national security in the context of an unpredictable and nuclear North Korea. Key members of leading conservative parties over the years have often cited the tenuous credibility of America’s extended deterrence and the asymmetrical security environment on the Korean Peninsula—with the Republic of Korea (ROK) only possessing conventional weapons—as reasons to pursue nuclear options. Such options range from the redeployment of U.S. tactical nuclear weapons, a “NATO-style” nuclear-sharing agreement with the United States, or even an indigenous nuclear arsenal.
In the past, U.S. nuclear experts have been hesitant to acknowledge ROK’s nuclear debate as part of the mainstream global political discourse. However, recent statements from leading conservatives in Seoul show that the idea of a nuclear-armed ROK has evolved from a fringe argument to now potentially a serious component of the conservative party platform. Last month, Yoo Seung-min, a former member of the National Assembly and one of People Power Party’s (PPP) presidential candidates, proclaimed, “it is unrealistic to prevent us from our own nuclear armament when North Korea has not given up its nuclear weapons yet.” This month, Assemblyman Hong Joon-pyo, another PPP presidential candidate, argued in a recent Facebook post that North Korea’s continuing nuclear developments have South Korea on the verge of “becoming its nuclear slave,” unless ROK pursues a “NATO-style nuclear-sharing policy to correct the inter-Korean nuclear imbalance.”
Low approval ratings of Moon Jae-in’s administration since 2020 and PPP’s victories in the recent mayoral elections for Seoul and Busan, the two largest cities in South Korea, reflect the current political climate in ROK. It consists of a dissatisfied South Korean public with the liberal government and an opposition party leveraging such sentiment to its advantage. The recent mayoral results and current polls may not offer any definite outlook into the outcome of the upcoming presidential bout, but they do preface a competitive contest between the ruling Democratic Party and the opposing PPP, whose leaders champion a dangerous pro-nuclear policy.
Whichever of three nuclear options the country may pursue, the harms of a nuclear ROK outweigh the potential benefits. While the presence of nuclear weapons may provide South Korea a sense of security against the North, it is also likely to make nuclear weapons a permanent reality on the Korean Peninsula. In fact, a South Korea with nuclear weapons plays into Pyongyang’s view of a hostile and imprudent Seoul, fueling tensions in the region. Furthermore, North Korea is likely to view a South Korean indigenous nuclear program as a pretext for further strengthening its own nuclear capabilities.
In addition, ROK’s nuclear armament complicates the continued goal of achieving denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, a key concept throughout decades of engagement with DPRK. Past negotiations have delivered key documents on denuclearization, including the 1992 Joint Declarationthe 2005 Six-Party Joint Statementthe Panmunjom Declaration, and the Singapore Summit Joint Statement in 2018. North Korea embraced these agreements with the understanding of denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula as a reciprocating, two-way streak of both North and South Koreas committing to a nuclear zero. If ROK decides to nuclearize, then North Korea will have one less reason to honor such arrangements and start disarming.
A nuclear South Korea is also likely to upset the U.S.-ROK alliance, a relationship already strained with several points of tension. Such pressure points include Moon’s impatient push to expedite the transfer of operational control authority in wartime (OPCON) to the ROK military, postponement of joint exercises for political reasons, and the broadening scope of the U.S.-ROK military cooperation on a strategy for the Indo-Pacific region and relations with China. Therefore, a new administration pursuing nuclear armament may come off as a sign of distrust toward the United States extended deterrence and by extension, a U.S.-ROK alliance already burdened by recent challenges. In pursuit of a “better” security guarantee, South Korea may ruin its current security guarantee.
If the Biden administration continues to show a lack of diplomatic progress with Pyongyang, then the conservatives’ call for nuclear weapons for a “safer” ROK will not simply fade away.
In order to better assure America’s ally about its extended deterrence, the Biden administration needs to re-examine the current deterrence arrangements and modify it to better address the changing security environment on the Korean Peninsula and East Asia as a whole—before South Korea takes matters into its own hands.
William Kim is a researcher at the Stimson Center’s 38 North Program. A graduate of Boston College, he has previously worked with Congressman Adam Smith and the House Armed Services Committee.
The National Interest · by William Kim · August 21, 2021


4. Seoul FM, U.S. envoy discuss ways to resume Korean peace process: ministry


It takes two sides to make peace. Does Kim Jong-un want peace and more important peaceful co-existence? My assessment is no.

My 5 questions:

  1. What do we want to achieve in Korea?
  2. What is the acceptable durable political arrangement that will protect, serve, and advance US and ROK/US Alliance interests on the Korean Peninsula and in Northeast Asia?
  3. Who does Kim fear more: The US or the Korean people in the north? (Note it is the Korean people armed with information knowledge of life in South Korea)
  4. Do we believe that Kim Jong-un has abandoned the seven decades old strategy of subversion, coercion-extortion (blackmail diplomacy), and use of force to achieve unification dominated by the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State in order to ensure the survival of the mafia like crime family cult known as Kim family regime?
  5. In support of that strategy do we believe that Kim Jong-un has abandoned the objective to split the ROK/US Alliance and get US forces off the peninsula? Has KJU given up his divide to conquer strategy - divide the alliance to conquer the ROK?
The answers to these questions should guide us to the strategy to solve the "Korea question" (para 60 of the Armistice) and lead to the only acceptable durable political arrangement: A secure, stable, economically vibrant, non-nuclear Korean peninsula unified under a liberal constitutional form of government with respect for individual liberty, the rule of law, and human rights, determined by the Korean people.  In short, a United Republic of Korea (UROK)

The root of all problems in Korea is the existence of the most evil mafia- like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime that has the objective of dominating the Korean Peninsula under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State. 




Seoul FM, U.S. envoy discuss ways to resume Korean peace process: ministry | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 장동우 · August 22, 2021
SEOUL, Aug. 22 (Yonhap) -- Foreign Minister Chung Eui-yong met with U.S. special representative for North Korea, Sung Kim, on Sunday and discussed ways to reactivate the stalled Korean Peninsula peace process at an early date, the foreign ministry said.
The ministry did not provide further details of the meeting that took place at Chung's residence.
Kim arrived in Seoul on Saturday for talks with his South Korean and Russian counterparts as they seek North Korea's return to dialogue amid renewed tensions over the ongoing military exercise between Seoul and Washington.

"I'm looking forward to very close consultations with our Korean government colleagues," Kim told reporters Saturday upon arrival at Incheon International Airport, west of Seoul.
On Monday, Kim is scheduled to hold bilateral talks with Seoul's top nuclear envoy, Noh Kyu-duk, to discuss how to achieve substantive progress in the efforts for the complete denuclearization and the establishment of lasting peace on the Korean Peninsula, the foreign ministry has said.
odissy@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 장동우 · August 22, 2021



5. S. Korea in vaccine swap talks with Romania: foreign ministry

It is good that South Korea and Romania are friends now. During the cold war Kim Il-sung and Nicolae Ceaușescu were friends and the Kim family regime fears experiencing a similar end.

(LEAD) S. Korea in vaccine swap talks with Romania: foreign ministry | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 유지호 · August 22, 2021
(ATTN: ADDS comments in last 4 paras; ADDS photo)
SEOUL, Aug. 22 (Yonhap) -- South Korea is in vaccine swap talks with Romania, the foreign ministry said, denying a news report that the European country plans to provide the South with coronavirus vaccines for free.
Romanian national news agency Agerpres reported earlier that the country decided to give South Korea 450,000 doses of Moderna's vaccine on humanitarian grounds.
Seoul's foreign ministry said the two countries are in talks about vaccines but denied that vaccines will be provided for free.
"Reports about the Romanian government providing vaccines for free are not true," the ministry said in a text message to reporters Saturday night. "Discussions are under way between our country and Romania from the context of a vaccine swap."
"The government has built trust between the two countries by providing the Romanian government with diagnosis kits and other quarantine supplies in March last year during the early months of the coronavirus outbreak," it said.
The ministry did not elaborate what the vaccine swap would be like.
But a diplomatic source said South Korea plans to provide Romania with unspecified "corresponding goods" in exchange for vaccines.

On Sunday, national health authorities echoed the foreign ministry's stance, reiterating that South Korea and Romania are in talks for a swap.
"We've been building mutual trust with each other since March last year, when we provided Romania with testing kits in the early days of the pandemic," an official with the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasure Headquarters said during a press briefing. "It is not true that the Romanian government is donating Moderna vaccines."
The official also denied claims that the expiry dates for vaccines coming over from Romania are imminent and said, "We're in talks over vaccines that have expiry dates of November and later."
"As soon as we have more specifics in our talks, we'll share them (with the public) quickly," the official added. "We'll continue to pursue opportunities for international cooperation in response to COVID-19, as we manage our vaccine supply."
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 유지호 · August 22, 2021



6. Korea's strategic importance growing amid US-China tensions

Excerpts:

"The Russian bombers' flight, which came amid the South Korea-U.S. joint military exercise, can be interpreted as a signal that the tension is intensifying a bloc of the U.S. and its allies and another bloc comprised of China, Russia and North Korea," said Choi Kang, acting president of the Asan Institute for Policy Studies.

"The U.S. and its allies are confronting the bloc of China, Russia and North Korea in terms of economic, political and diplomatic issues, and it remains to be watched whether this dynamic will be realized in concrete military actions."

The South Korean military and the U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) began their combined military exercises on Aug. 16. Dubbed 21-2 Combined Command Post Training, the annual exercise will last until Aug. 26, with most of the activity taking place in computer simulation.

South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff said the exercise is "regular and defensive training, which does not pose a threat to a certain country." But it is widely accepted as a rhetorical description, given the content of the exercise.
Korea's strategic importance growing amid US-China tensions
The Korea Times · August 22, 2021
US, allies strengthen confrontation against China, Russia, NK

By Nam Hyun-woo

The deepening tension between the United States and China has shed new light on the geographical and strategic importance of Korea, as each of them stage military drills with their allies in and around the Korean Peninsula.

According to Russia's Interfax news agency, the country's Ministry of Defense said two Tupolev Tu-95 MS strategic bombers conducted a nine-hour routine flight over the East Sea, the waters between the Korean Peninsula and Japan, on Tuesday.

The agency reported the bombers were escorted by Sukhoi Su-35 fighters, but did not elaborate on the route. And it was unknown whether South Korean fighter jets were scrambled in response to the flight.

The movement came amid the strengthening military ties between Russia and China. The two countries held large-scale joint military exercises in China's north-central Ningxia region last week, involving more than 10,000 ground troops and air forces. It was the first case of the Russian military conducting exercises in Chinese territory.

The pair's strengthening military ties are interpreted as a countermeasure against military exercises by the U.S. and its allies, including the ongoing combined military exercises between Seoul and Washington.

"The Russian bombers' flight, which came amid the South Korea-U.S. joint military exercise, can be interpreted as a signal that the tension is intensifying a bloc of the U.S. and its allies and another bloc comprised of China, Russia and North Korea," said Choi Kang, acting president of the Asan Institute for Policy Studies.

"The U.S. and its allies are confronting the bloc of China, Russia and North Korea in terms of economic, political and diplomatic issues, and it remains to be watched whether this dynamic will be realized in concrete military actions."

The South Korean military and the U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) began their combined military exercises on Aug. 16. Dubbed 21-2 Combined Command Post Training, the annual exercise will last until Aug. 26, with most of the activity taking place in computer simulation.

South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff said the exercise is "regular and defensive training, which does not pose a threat to a certain country." But it is widely accepted as a rhetorical description, given the content of the exercise.

According to sources, the exercise is comprised of two parts. The first part is focused on defense, while the second part is aimed at practicing counterattack scenarios, which include operations on advancing troops to northward.

Due to this, North Korea as well as China have been making sensitive responses against the drills. And this year the exercises are gaining greater attention due to the rising tensions between the U.S. and China.

The HMS Artful, a nuclear-powered fleet submarine of the British Royal Navy's HMS Queen Elizabeth aircraft carrier, is docked at a naval base in Busan, Aug. 12. The submarine entered the country ahead of a port call by the 64,000-ton aircraft carrier, reportedly set for the end of the month. YonhapDuring the ASEAN Regional Forum on Aug. 6, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said it would be "unconstructive" if the U.S. and South Korea go ahead with the combined military exercises.

China has been pursuing the so-called "freeze-for-freeze" plan, in which South Korea and the U.S. stop their combined military training and the North discontinue its missile and nuclear weapon programs, reflecting Beijing's perspective that the Seoul-Washington drills may target China.

Though China has been pursuing this strategy for years, South Korean government officials said Wang's remark was "unusual" this time because the forum is the only regional multilateral security forum that North Korea attends. This year, North Korean Ambassador to Indonesia An Kwang-il participated.

The remark showcased that China is recognizing the "strategic value" of North Korea in its competition with the U.S., thus stepping up efforts to form a trilateral bloc consisting of China, Russia and North Korea to contain the U.S. and its allies.
"China cannot ignore the strategic value of North Korea, which is locking horns with the U.S., thus it will accept North Korea's claims if possible," Lee Su-seok, principal research fellow at the Institute for National Security Strategy, wrote in an Aug. 13 report. "Consequently, the U.S. will consider North Korea and China as a package, and address Pyongyang issues in the perspective of the world order."
Against this backdrop, the U.S. and its allies are showcasing their armed forces, escalating tensions surrounding the Korean Peninsula.

According to South Korea's Ministry of National Defense, the British nuclear-powered submarine HMS Artful docked at the port of the Naval Operations Command in Busan on Aug. 12, for the purpose of examining its equipment and loading munitions.

Following the submarine, the HMS Queen Elizabeth aircraft carrier and its strike group are expected to arrive in Busan later this month, after the conclusion of the U.S. Navy Large-Scale Exercise (LSE) 2021, the largest U.S. Navy exercise since 1981 which spans multiple oceans.

"LSE 2021 covers East China Sea, and so it is assumed to be targeting Beijing," said Shin In-kyun, a defense analyst and an affiliated professor at Kyonggi University Graduate School of North Korean Studies. "This shows the Korean Peninsula is now at the forefront of the so-called Second Cold War."


The Korea Times · August 22, 2021




7. Steps for Korea's 'graduation'

South Korea is a developed nation. And north Korea just keeps declining and being among the poorest countries in the world and by all standards should be a failed state.
Steps for Korea's 'graduation'
The Korea Times · August 22, 2021
By Ahn Ho-young
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced July 4 that the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) decided to classify Korea as a developed nation during its recent board meeting in Geneva.

It was interesting for me to observe how the news was reported in the Korean news media. On the one hand, it was widely reported that it was the first time that the UNCTAD upgraded a country's classification from "developing" to "developed" since its establishment in 1964.

At the same time, it was also widely reported that Korea's "graduation" had taken place through many steps. Many articles as an example of preceding steps referred to Korea's accession to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and subsequent accession to the OECD's Development Assistance Committee. While thinking that Korea's "graduation" is still a work in progress, I want to share my own experiences of having worked on Korea's accession to the OECD in 1996.

Then President Kim Young-sam, as soon as he was inaugurated in 1993, focused on internationalization and globalization as important foreign and economic policy goals. As a director for international trade at the foreign ministry, I was much encouraged by this, because I thought that was the right way to go for Korea as a nation in the post-Cold War world, where erstwhile ideological confrontations were being replaced with reconciliation and cooperation, and where new economic and diplomatic opportunities were emerging for Korea. Edward Luttwak used to sum up the trend of the time as "from geo-politics to geo-economics," which became one of my favorite quotes.

It was against such a backdrop that the Korean government decided to join the OECD. Korea submitted an application for membership in March 1995. In the following month, Korea opened an accession office in Paris, which I joined the following year.

The OECD decided to conduct an examination and review of Korean laws and regulations in 11 committees on such issues as capital movements, international investment, international trade, banking, insurance policies, labor relations, education, agriculture, climate change, environment and maritime transportation.
Examination and review of certain issues were closely related with structural issues in the Korean economy and society, and proved to be more challenging. One such issue was Korea's developing country status, which emerged as a critical issue in the OECD Trade Committee's review.

In the end, Korea summed up its position on the developing country status along the following lines: Korea had participated in the Uruguay Round as a developing country and would have to maintain the same status for its implementation. However, Korea will participate in the subsequent multilateral trade negotiations as an OECD member with exceptions in the two sectors of agriculture and climate change.
Korea, when its developing country status was subsequently challenged in many different international fora, especially in the WTO meetings, used to carefully hold onto the above-stated "OECD formula" of its developing country status.
It continued until 2019, when Korea decided to give up the exception on agriculture. The exception in the climate change sector became moot in my view with the emergence of the concept of nationally determined contributions (NDCs) and Article 9 in the Paris Climate Accords.

Another issue of particular difficulty and importance was Korea's implementation of the OECD Codes of Liberalization of Capital Movements and Current Invisible Operations. Adherence to the codes was an important indicator of the applying economy's compatibility with the OECD principles. At the relevant joint committees, as an "OECD observer" later reported, Korea agreed to immediately implement only some 65 percent of the OECD's Codes of Liberalization.

However, Korea maintained that past efforts the country had made for liberalization of capital movement, services and investment strongly demonstrated its commitment to greater liberalization. The relevant committees acknowledged such assurances of the Korean government.

Almost the last committee to wrap up Korea's examination and review was the Committee on Employment, Labor and Social Affairs (ELSAC). Even after Korea's accession to the OECD in December 1996, ELSAC deemed that Korea's subsequent reform was short of the commitments made by Korea. The committee continued to monitor Korea's progress on labor relations reform until 2007.

Less than a year after its accession to the OECD, Korea was mired in the Asian financial crisis, which was attributed partly in Korea to "premature" accession to the OECD. Korea tried and succeeded in escaping from the crisis through reform in four sectors which accelerated, rather than retracted, liberalization. It was for this reason that the financial crisis was labeled as a "blessing in disguise" for Korea by many observers abroad.

But, it was not until 10 years later in 2008, during the global recession when I was working as a G20 sherpa, that I could better appreciate that the reform in four sectors, introduced and implemented during the Asian financial crisis, was in fact timely in further streamlining the Korean economy, which eventually dampened the impact of the global recession.

Ahn Ho-young (hyahn78@mofa.or.kr) is president of the University of North Korean Studies. He served as Korean ambassador to the United States and first vice foreign minister.


The Korea Times · August 22, 2021




8. New COVID-19 cases dip to 1,600s, virus curbs extended for 2 weeks

Some slight good news.

(3rd LD) New COVID-19 cases dip to 1,600s, virus curbs extended for 2 weeks | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 유지호 · August 22, 2021
(ATTN: UPDATES with latest tally in para 7)
By Kim Han-joo
SEOUL, Aug. 22 (Yonhap) -- South Korea's daily new coronavirus fell back to the 1,600s on Sunday due to fewer tests over the weekend, health authorities said, yet tough restrictions are to be extended to battle the fast surge of the outbreak driven by the more transmissible delta variant.
The country added 1,628 more COVID-19 cases, including 1,590 local infections, raising the total caseload to 236,366, according to the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA).

Sunday's tally was down from 2,052 on Friday and 1,880 on Saturday, the KDCA said.
It also marks the first time since July 29 that the daily new cases have fallen back to 1,600s.
But the decline was attributable to less testing over the weekend. Daily cases surpassed 1,000 on July 7 and have stayed above the mark for 47 days in a row.
The country added 13 more deaths from COVID-19, raising the death toll to 2,215, the KDCA said.
South Korea reported 1,306 cases from midnight to 9 p.m. Sunday, ensuring the 48th consecutive day of at least 1,000 patients. The figure is down 176 from the same time Saturday.
The daily total is counted until midnight and announced the following morning.
The fourth wave of the pandemic has shown no signs of letup although stringent virus restrictions have been in place amid slower-than-expected vaccinations.
The wider Seoul area, where half of the nation's 52 million population lives, has been under Level 4 restrictions, the highest in the four-tier virus curbs, for the past six weeks, while most other areas have implemented Level 3 distancing for the last four weeks.
The current social distancing measures will be extended starting Monday until Sept. 5.
Under the tougher measures, restaurants and cafes will be required to close at 9 p.m., an hour earlier than the current nighttime curfew.
The semi-lockdown measures prohibit gatherings of more than two people after 6 p.m., and ban the operation of nightclubs and other entertainment venues.
As of Sunday, 25.9 million people, or 50.4 percent of the population, have received their first shots of COVID-19 vaccines, and 11.4 million people have been fully vaccinated, the KDCA said.
Currently, those aged between 18 and 49 are making advanced reservations for vaccine shots, with the rate standing at 61.3 percent of the eligible age group, the agency said.
The government aims to vaccinate at least 70 percent of the nation's population by September to create herd immunity in November, but the delayed supply of vaccines by U.S. drugmaker Moderna Inc. has sparked concerns over the feasibility of its plan.
In response to media reports that Romania plans to donate 450,000 doses of Moderna's vaccines nearing their expiry date to South Korea, the foreign ministry said talks have been under way with the Romanian government for vaccine cooperation.
Of the newly confirmed domestic cases, 493 were from Seoul, 513 from the surrounding Gyeonggi Province and 64 from the western port city of Incheon, the authorities said. The total tally from the wider Seoul area came to 1,070.
The new daily cases from the area have been a four-digit number for four days in a row.
The southeastern port city of Busan identified 111 new patients, and the North Gyeongsang Province had 56 more, they said.
There were 38 imported cases, down from 66 reported a day earlier, the KDCA said.
The number of patients with serious symptoms across the country reached 395, it said.
The total number of people released from quarantine after making full recoveries was 206,276, up 1,758 from the previous day.
khj@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 유지호 · August 22, 2021









V/R
David Maxwell
Senior Fellow
Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Phone: 202-573-8647
Personal Email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com
Web Site: www.fdd.org
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
Subscribe to FDD’s new podcastForeign Podicy
FDD is a Washington-based nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

V/R
David Maxwell
Senior Fellow
Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Phone: 202-573-8647
Personal Email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com
Web Site: www.fdd.org
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
Subscribe to FDD’s new podcastForeign Podicy
FDD is a Washington-based nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

If you do not read anything else in the 2017 National Security Strategy read this on page 14:

"A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation."

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