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PDF | Research | Week of July 17, 2023

Quote of the Week

“The environment for M&A transactions continues to be very challenging.”

– Frank Aquila, senior M&A partner, Sullivan & Cromwell.

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The Case for Junior Capital

(Part One)

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The Case for Junior Capital (Part Two)

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We continue our discussion this week on why private mezzanine is going from strength to strength amid current economic and market conditions.


“We did zero mezzanine deals last year,” one junior capital provider told us. “This year we’ve already done half-a-dozen. We’re getting calls from sponsors that don’t typically use mezz. Deal flow is up significantly, particularly for PIK deals given what’s going on in the senior market. We’re trying to pick our spots. If the use is just to pay senior cash interest, that’s an easy no.”


“Our high-water mark for investment activity occurred during the peak of aggressive senior debt market conditions, and we have experienced an uninterrupted growth trajectory in junior capital activity since 2011," our Head of Private Equity and Junior Capital, Jason Strife, told us. “Middle market deal flow was soft versus the same period last year...

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Chart of the Week

Yield of Dreams

Consistent with senior debt trends, junior debt yields are up, leverage down.

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Source: Refinitiv LPC

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Stat of the Week

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Loan Stats at a Glance 

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Contact: Marina Lukatsky / S&P Global Market Intelligence

PDI Picks

Are the storm clouds receding?

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Private debt may be in the process of demonstrating its resilience in the face of the latest challenges...

Leveraged Loan Insight & Analysis

US sponsored middle market direct

lending volume increased in 2Q23

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Activity picked up in the US middle market direct lending space in 2Q23 but remained at lower levels. At US$16.3bn, sponsored middle market direct lending volume was up 32% from 1Q23 but was down 46% year-over-year...

Contact: Diana Diquez / Refinitiv LPC

The Pulse of Private Equity

Another mixed quarter

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US PE activity brought in mixed results in Q2, with deal volume up slightly and value down almost 16%, according to PitchBook’s US PE Breakdown. Dealmaking has declined in four of the past six quarters...

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Contact: Alex Lykken / PitchBook

DL Deals: News & Analysis

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KBRA DLD Default Index:

2023 forecast is 2.5% for sponsored deals

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KBRA DLD’s 2023 default forecast is 2.5% for sponsor-backed direct lending loans, equating to roughly 30 defaults against the roughly 1,200 sponsored borrowers in the KBRA DLD Default Index...

Contact: Kelly Thompson / KBRA DLD

Middle Market & Private Credit

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Default Outlook for Middle Market

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Fitch recorded eight defaults in our Private Monitored Rating (PMR) portfolio in 2022, down from the pandemic-affected years of 2020 and 2021 when we recorded 23 and 18 respectively. YTD defaults through June...

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Contact: Brad Hamner / FitchRatings

Covenant Trends 

Average EBITDA Adjustment Cap for

Synergies & Cost Savings

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Contact: Steven Miller / Covenant Review

High-Yield Bond Statistics

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Weekly fund flows source: Lipper
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Private Debt Intelligence

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Emerging market private debt

dealmaking remains steady

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As emerging markets continue to develop their private debt markets, they present both opportunities and risks for investors looking to tap into their growth. With regions such as India, Southeast Asia, and the Middle...

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Contact: Thomas Marrs / Preqin

Debtwire Middle-Market

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Source: VanEck BDC Income ETF, BofA Merrill Lynch US High Yield Effective Yield

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Contact: Suneet Chandvani / Debtwire 

Middle Market Deal Terms at a Glance

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Contact: Stefan Shaffer / SPP Capital Partners

Select Deals in the Market

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This publication is a service to our clients and friends. It is designed only to give general information on the market developments actually covered. It is not intended to be a comprehensive summary of recent developments or to suggest parameters for any prospective financing opportunity.