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Ongoing crises and the blockade of Nagorno-Karabakh have highlighted the precarious position of Russian peacekeepers in the region. When Moscow brokered a ceasefire agreement on November 10, 2020, sidelining other members of the Minsk Group, no one could have predicted the developments of the following two years. Russian peacekeepers either lack the capacity or the will to avert humanitarian crises, ensure the safety of Nagorno-Karabakh residents, and maintain secure communication routes in the area.
Meanwhile, as Europe has significantly reduced its reliance on Russian energy resources, the importance of alternative gas and oil suppliers has surged. To the disappointment of many in Armenia, the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, visited Azerbaijan in July 2022 and commended Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev as a dependable and trustworthy partner.
In this event, we will explore Russia's current role in the conflict and the ongoing developments in and around Nagorno-Karabakh. What is the current state of affairs there? What are the foreign policy objectives of Russia, the United States, the European Union, Turkey, and Iran in this conflict? Is Armenia or Azerbaijan of greater importance to Russia today? Is Russia exploring energy and resource transit through the South Caucasus corridor in exchange for significant concessions in the conflict zone? Can international forces replace Russian peacekeepers? Is Azerbaijan attempting to force out the Armenian population from Nagorno-Karabakh, and if so, under what conditions would Russian military presence in the South Caucasus remain justified? Is Armenia shifting away from its traditional alignment with Russia in favor of stronger Western ties, and how might Iran react to such a shift? Lastly, what is the current perception of Russia within Azerbaijan?
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