CHC Industry Insight

Industry Insight - October 2020

Note from the Executive Director

With only a few days to go before perhaps one of the momentous elections in our lifetimes, I want to remind you one last time, if you haven’t voted already, to get out and cast your ballot next Tuesday. The stakes could not be higher.

I’m also looking forward to joining you a week after the election for CHC’s 2020 (Virtual) Policy Forum on November 10, where we’ll have a chance to review the affordable housing landscape after a long campaign season—and discuss our next steps for providing safe, affordable homes for more vulnerable Californians.

Our annual event is always an opportunity to hear from a who’s who of California’s affordable housing development community. And this year we’re particularly excited to be joined by a distinguished group of speakers at a key moment on the political calendar—amidst an unpredictable pandemic and economic situation that continues to show, at every turn, just how essential affordable housing is.

You can find more details here about our agenda and exciting lineup of speakers, including:

Featured Speaker: Lourdes Castro Ramírez, California's Secretary of the Business, Consumer Services and Housing Agency
California Election Panel: Mike Madrid and Robb Korinke, Partners, Grassroots Lab
Federal Affordable Housing Panel: Bob Moss, CohnReznick; Emily Cadik, AHTCC; David Gasson, Housing Advisory Group
California Housing Hall of Fame – Lifetime Achievement Award: Sue Reynolds, President and CEO, Community HousingWorks

Thank you again for joining us!

And remember to vote.

Sincerely,

Ray Pearl

Executive Director

In Case You Missed It

Negotiations on a COVID relief package fell apart before the election, with House Democrats, Senate Republicans, and the White House unable to reach an agreement on the size and contents of a second round of stimulus. Several major provisions of the original CARES Act, including a weekly boost in unemployment benefits, expired in July.

House Democrats passed a $2.2 trillion package this fall that would restore $600-a-week unemployment benefits and provide significant aid to state and local governments. The White House ultimately got as high as $1.8 trillion in its final proposals, but did not include major provisions for combatting COVID sought by Democrats. Senate Republicans have continued to seek to pass smaller stimulus bills, including a $500 billion package that failed last week.

Affordable housing advocates in Washington say the White House has expressed willingness to accept as much $75 billion for renter and mortgage assistance—a positive sign for affordable housing.

The election results will determine the likelihood of a lame-duck agreement—with the potential for the White House, Senate, or both to change hands. A government funding deadline is also looming on December 11, providing an opportunity to Congress to negotiate more relief.

Speaker Pelosi said this week she wants to advance legislation before the presidential inauguration in January because "first and foremost, the American people need help."

California Legislative Outlook, Sloat Higgins Jensen & Assoc.

Overall

Money has been pouring into statewide elections and ballot initiatives at record pace.
In statewide legislative races, independent expenditure (IE) PAC’s have spent $30,410,755 trying to influence the makeup of the Legislature.
A record $706,027,801 has poured into statewide ballot initiatives, predominately for Propositions 15, 21, 22, and 23.

State Assembly

The Democrats hold a 61-seat majority to the Republicans 18-seat minority (Chad Mayes, formerly a Republican, switched to No Party Preference last year).
Overall, there are 10 open seats that will bring new members to Sacramento.
Republicans are defending five competitive seats. Democrats have three mildly competitive seats that they are expected to keep.
Republicans are assured of picking up one seat as a crowded Democratic primary resulted in two Republicans advancing in AD 38 (Santa Clarita).
The election could result in Democrats holding anywhere from a 57- to a 66-seat advantage, although popular belief suggests Democrats will gain (not lose) seats.

State Senate

Democrats currently enjoy a 29-seat advantage to the Republicans 11 seats.
Three incumbent Republicans and one open Republican seat will all be competitive on November 3rd while no Democratic seats are in jeopardy of being lost.
If Democrats are successful in picking up all four seats, they will see their margin grow to 33-7.
Other races to note include a reelection challenge from the left for Senator Scott Wiener (D) in San Francisco, and an expensive intraparty open seat race between Dave Cortese (D) and Ann Ravel (D) that has pitted labor versus business.

Affordable Housing in the News

This month in affordable housing news has been all about the election—with a variety of local and statewide housing measures on the ballot. Noteworthy local measures include the City of San Diego’s Measure A, which would fund affordable housing development through a $900 million general obligation bond; the City and County of San Francisco’s $488 million Proposition A, which would issue general obligation bonds to fund homeless supportive housing; Alameda County’s Measure W, which would raise $150 million per year for housing assistance through a half-cent sales tax increase; and the City of Alameda’s Measure Z, which would repeal a local prohibition on construction of multi-family housing. On the state ballot this year, voters will find two initiatives with major implications for affordable housing: Proposition 15, which would require more regular reassessments of commercial property, raises as much as $11.5 billion per year for local governments and schools through higher business taxes—while also potentially giving local governments another reason to say no to housing. Proposition 21, which is opposed by nearly every major editorial board in the state, would reduce state restrictions on rent control. Prop 21 is opposed by CHC.

CHC's 2020 Policy Forum &

California Housing Hall of Fame Awards