Informal Institute for National Security Thinkers and Practitioners
 
 


Quotes of the Day:


"Americans behave as if intelligence were some sort of hideous deformity."
- Frank Zappa

The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane."
- Marcus Aurelius

"I believe that reading and writing are the most nourishing forms of meditation anyone has so far found. By reading the writings of the most interesting minds in history, we meditate with our own minds and theirs as well. This to me is a miracle."
- Kurt Vonnegut




1. Russia ally Kim Jong-un demands more North Korean weapons output

2. [Interview] “If North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is not stupid, he will not fight a strong man”

3. Why Some Koreans Want Nuclear Weapons

4. North Korea's Kim Jong Un Vows to Boost War Readiness Amid Tensions

5. Permanent Mission of North Korea to U.N. Defends Pyongyang's Nuclear Weapons as Sovereign Right

6. Yoon's approval inches up for 2nd consecutive week

7. Police search Jeju Int'l Airport after online bomb threat

8. Kimchi exports up 20 percent in H1 on robust demand from US, EU

9. Why are over 70% of North Korean defectors female?

10. Frustration and Questions Swirl for Family of Soldier Who Ran into North Korea

11. North Korea calls itself a ‘responsible nuclear power’

12. S. Korea's top general visits key Air Force, Navy, Marine units to check readiness

13. In a Taiwan war Seoul’s problem won’t be Pyongyang

14. N. Korean leader's visits to arms factories apparently had 'multiple' purposes: Seoul

15. 350 Korean language schools to be set up overseas by 2027

16. North Korea's arms exports to Russia likely to increase: analysts

17. Rare Russian VIP Jet in North Korea Spurs Arms Deal Concern







1. Russia ally Kim Jong-un demands more North Korean weapons output


Perhaps the Russian deal could make Kim a lot of money. And is Russia really this desperate?  


Is there a play here for the international community to hurt Russia and north Korea simultaneously?


Russia ally Kim Jong-un demands more North Korean weapons output

Dictator tours factories making drone engines and rocket launchers and calls for ‘rapidly expanding production capacity’



The Guardian · August 6, 2023

Kim Jong-un visited several major North Korean arms factories this week, including facilities making engines for strategic cruise missiles, and called for increased weapons production, state media has reported.

The three-day inspection of the factories comes less than two weeks after the dictator attended a major military parade with Russian and Chinese officials, showcasing North Korea’s newest weapons, including intercontinental ballistic missiles and spy drones.

Kim visited a factory producing engines for armed unmanned aerial vehicles, as well as production lines of shells for super large calibre multiple rocket launchers and transporter erector launchers, the Korean Central News Agency reported.

North Korea showcases attack drones during show of unity with China and Russia

Read more

During the engine factory visit, Kim called for “steadily increasing the performance and reliability of the engine” and “rapidly expanding its production capacity”, KCNA said.

Kim also highlighted the modernisation of small arms as “the most important and urgent matter in making war preparations … in keeping with the changed aspect of war”, the agency reported.

The inspections come as South Korea and the US prepare for major joint military drills this month. North Korea views such exercises as rehearsals for an invasion and has repeatedly threatened “overwhelming” action in response.

Last month, Pyongyang held a major military parade to mark the 70th anniversary of the Korean war armistice, with analysts describing the event as “the largest, most overt North Korean display of nuclear-capable systems”.

North Korea recently held a large defence expo, with Kim giving a tour to the visiting Russian defence minister through a vast display of the country’s newest and most advanced weaponry, including ballistic missiles and spy drones.

Agence France-Presse

The Guardian · August 6, 2023




2. [Interview] “If North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is not stupid, he will not fight a strong man”


This is a Google translation of an interview I did in Korea last week with Asia Today. The translation is not quite 100% accurate (especially one comment about Pvt King appears very mistranslated). But I was able to cover a lot of ground with the reporters from north Korea and provocations, to readiness, to human rights, to the upcoming Camp David Summit, to unification.


[Interview] “If North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is not stupid, he will not fight a strong man”

Article approval 2023. 08. 06. 18:00

https://www.asiatoday.co.kr/view.php?key=20230806010002666





David Maxwell, Vice President of the Asia-Pacific Strategy Center

"Aiming to lift sanctions against North Korea and weaken the alliance through provocations such as missile launches" "We need

to deliver a strong message through deployment of strategic assets and combined military exercises"

"Looking forward to a statement in support of a unified Korea at the Korea-US-Japan Summit"

David Maxwell, vice president of the Asia-Pacific Strategy Center, is having an interview at the headquarters of Asia Today in Yeouido, Seoul on the 4th. /Reporter Song Eui-joo“If Kim Jong-un is not stupid, he will not want to fight someone stronger than himself. That is why he must show off his strong power through the deployment of strategic assets of the United States, joint military exercises between South Korea and the United States, and cooperation in security between South Korea, the United States and Japan.”


David Maxwell, deputy representative of the Center for Asia-Pacific Strategy (CAPS), a Washington-based think tank, said in an interview held at the headquarters of Asia Today in Yeouido, Seoul on the 4th, "It is a strong message to Kim Jong-un that South Korea and the US are showing their resolve to confront each other." said.


In particular, Deputy Representative Maxwell emphasized, "The deployment of US strategic assets on the Korean Peninsula and the ROK-US joint military exercises will send a strong message that if Kim Jong-un uses nuclear weapons or weapons of mass destruction, the regime will no longer exist."


Vice President Maxwell is a retired colonel from the US Special Forces, and is an expert on North Korean and East Asian security issues, irregular warfare, and political psychological warfare. During his active duty, he worked mainly in Asia, including Korea, Japan, and the Philippines. During his service at the ROK-US Combined Forces Command, he planned combined operation plans as a member of the Operational Staff. After his retirement, he served as Associate Director of the Center for Strategic Studies at Georgetown University, and was a member of the Korea-American Institute, Spirit of America, North Korean Human Rights Commission, International Korean Society, and Korean-American Security Society. He is actively engaged in research and writing activities related to the security of the Korean Peninsula and the ROK-US alliance at special operations research groups.


◇The following is Q&A


- North Korea is continuing military provocations such as rhetorical threats and missile launches against South Korea and the United States. What do you think is North Korea's intention?


“The first is to pressure South Korea and the United States to force them to lift international sanctions, and the second is to weaken the ROK-US alliance. North Korea is using tension, threats and provocations to force political and economic concessions. Blackmail diplomacy, their ultimate strategy is to weaken South Korea by dismantling the ROK-US alliance, but they have failed to achieve two main objectives: the third is the development of advanced combat capabilities using nuclear weapons and missiles; This is really the strategy and purpose of the Kim Jong-un regime, but they have not achieved any success. Finally, there is also a purpose to divert the dissatisfaction of the North Korean people who are suffering from the border closure due to Corona 19 to the outside world. The reason is to blame South Korea and the United States for North Korea's difficult economic situation due to its nuclear and missile development."


-North Korea's nuclear and missile technologies are advancing. Please evaluate the evaluation of North Korea's nuclear and missile capabilities.


“It is clear that North Korea is developing weapons for practical use. They want to develop enough nuclear weapons not only for a pre-emptive strike, but also for a counterattack (second strike). There are liquid-fueled intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), solid-fuel ICBMs, submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), etc. They are intended to create an alliance dilemma. However, as the US intelligence authorities have revealed, North Korea's nuclear weapons are short-term for the ROK-US alliance. It appears to be intended to force concessions from


David Maxwell, vice president of the Asia-Pacific Strategy Center, is having an interview at the headquarters of Asia Today in Yeouido, Seoul on the 4th. /Reporter Song Eui-joo- How should South Korea, the United States, and the ROK-US alliance respond to North Korea's evolving nuclear and missile threats?


“Under the previous administration, South Korea and the United States always reacted to North Korea’s provocations and made concessions. This was the wrong response. But things have changed since the election of Presidents Joe Biden and President Yoon Seok-yeol. In particular, what we have been able to see over the past year is our It was a series of drills by the ROK-US allied forces to raise the capabilities of the ROK to the highest level. We are carrying out intentional drills. The ROK-US showing their resolve to confront strength is a strong message to Kim Jong-un. Kim Jong-un If you're not stupid, you won't want to fight someone stronger than you. That's why we must show military strength to stop Kim Jong-un from fighting. And we shouldn't respond with concessions to all provocations from North Korea. Instead of conceding, we must show high standards. Therefore, we must maintain the readiness posture of the United States, so we must continue training, deploying strategic assets of the United States on the Korean Peninsula, conducting the Ulchi Freedom Shield (UFS) joint exercises between South Korea and the United States, or conducting joint missile defense exercises between Korea, the United States and Japan. This is the new normal. As President Yoon and President Biden talked about, if Kim Jong-un uses nuclear weapons or weapons of mass destruction, that regime will no longer exist."


- South Korea and the US are strengthening their extended deterrence policies against North Korea's nuclear and missile threats. As part of this, the Korea-US Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG), which was agreed upon by the leaders of the two countries, was launched last month. What is the meaning of the launch of NCG and what are its future prospects?


"The NCG is another proof of US nuclear deterrence to the Korean people. There is an opinion that South Korea should develop its own nuclear weapons or redeploy US nuclear weapons. But nuclear weapons are obviously the worst. No one wants to see nuclear weapons used. All We want to prevent all use of nuclear weapons, but to do so, we must show a willingness to use nuclear weapons.In that sense, the NCG will not only reassure the Korean public, but will also bring a high level of understanding of nuclear weapons from South Korean military and government officials. It's all about American extended deterrence."


- The United States is increasing the deployment of strategic assets such as strategic nuclear submarines (SSBNs) and strategic bombers to the Korean Peninsula to the level of permanent deployment in order to enhance the execution power of extended deterrence against South Korea. Please evaluate the meaning and effectiveness of deploying strategic assets.


“The United States is deploying strategic assets on the Korean Peninsula because the United States really wants to give the Korean people confidence. It sends a clear message that the use of weapons of mass destruction will end the Kim Jong-un regime. And the United States can do that. In other words, the effect of deploying strategic assets is, firstly, to give confidence to the Korean people, secondly, to train the military and ensure interoperability between South Korea and the United States, and finally, to Kim Jong-un, South Korea or its allies, the United States It sends the message that if you take some action towards them, you can end the regime."


David Maxwell, vice president of the Asia-Pacific Strategy Center, is having an interview at the headquarters of Asia Today in Yeouido, Seoul on the 4th. /Reporter Song Eui-joo- Some point out that the deployment of strategic assets by the US provokes opposition and provocation from North Korea, making the situation on the Korean Peninsula unstable. What are your thoughts on this comment?


"That's a good question. But how should we respond to provocations? Are we going to let North Korea continue its missile tests? Kim Jong-un is not an idiot. We make rhetorical threats. Here, people may think that it is unstable. Hadiman Kim Jong-un would not be able to take real action if he did not want to see the military power of the US and South Korea. Our actions are a demonstration of Iranian power. Rather, it is stabilized. That is, our strength is to prevent war."


- UFS will be held in the middle of this month. In celebration of the 70th anniversary of the ROK-US alliance, it is predicted that the largest-ever US strategic asset will be deployed at this year's exercise. What is the meaning of this joint US-ROK exercise and what is the expected response from North Korea?


"North Korea will criticize. There will be propaganda, there will be missile launches, but that is normal for North Korea. South Koreans should not be afraid of North Korean rhetorical threats and missile tests. In fact, if they do nothing, they are afraid. "But what I'm concerned about is launching cyberattacks with rhetorical threats. They're doing cyberattacks globally and they have very capable cyber capabilities."


-Recently, there was an incident in which Private Travis King, a USFK soldier, defected to North Korea at the Joint Security Area (JSA) in Panmunjom. What impact will this incident have on future North Korea-US relations and security on the Korean Peninsula? Also, please predict how the private King case will develop in the future.


“Something very surprising has happened, but the impact is likely to be relatively low. For North Korea, the young soldier is low in rank and has little experience, so it is unlikely that it will have any real intelligence value. On the other hand, for the United States, the need to protect all American citizens is unlikely. That's why they want him back. This position of the United States is a strength as a value, but it is also a weakness that North Korea can exploit. North Korea will be looking for a way to make the most of this situation. "You might think he will beg. But the United States will continue to demand his return, but will not yield. It will not beg openly. It will demand his due return and will continue to do so until he returns."


David Maxwell, vice president of the Asia-Pacific Strategy Center, is having an interview at the headquarters of Asia Today in Yeouido, Seoul on the 4th. /Reporter Song Eui-joo- On the 18th, the Korea-US-Japan Summit will be held at Camp David. Plans to strengthen trilateral cooperation on North Korea's nuclear and missile threats are expected to be discussed. What is the outlook for this summit?


“It will be a very important event and a historic event. Everyone is looking forward to it, and I am also very curious about what the conclusion will be. It is expected that the President will make efforts to improve Korea-Japan relations, and although plans to strengthen trilateral cooperation on North Korea's nuclear and missile threats will be discussed, the first purpose of this summit is to improve Korea-Japan relations. Regarding the issue, we expect the leaders of the three countries to issue a joint statement supporting a free and unified Korea.The joint statement from the summit meeting between President Biden and President Yoon in April contained support for a peaceful, democratic, and free Korea. It was not well known at the time because people were focused on the nuclear issue, but it might be a good idea to make a strong statement about reunification at Camp David now, because the only way to end the North Korean nuclear threat and their human rights abuses is to Because it's unification. There's a lot of work to be done before the summit, and working people from South Korea, the US and Japan are moving to work out all the details. Eventually, the three leaders will meet and maybe sing 'American Pie' or something. Maybe President Yoon will offer the other two leaders something nice, but I hope the proposal is substantive. I hope it is about unification. Currently, South Koreans may have doubts about President Yoon's abilities, but his diplomatic prowess over the past four It was already verified at the Korea-US summit held in Washington in February. He is literally a 'soft power leader.'Through this, it is expected to make a greater contribution to Korea.”


- You mentioned that 'South Korea and the US must also deal with North Korean human rights issues when responding to North Korea's provocations.'


“Human rights are not only a moral imperative, but also a matter of national security. We need to see that by focusing on human rights, we can give North Koreans hope and educate them, because some of the North Korean defectors are free to live in North Korea. Because he believed that freedom existed and he realized what freedom was only when they came to South Korea. Kim Jong-un fears the North Korean people more than the Korean Army or the US Forces Korea. Kim Jong-un only uses the South Korean threat to control the North Korean people. Kim Jong-un knows that South Korea and the US will not attack him unless he attacks first, so we have to focus on human rights, because that scares him, so we put human rights first and use the information It has to be done. President Reagan did not stop talking about human rights when negotiating nuclear disarmament with the Soviet Union."


-Lastly, what would you like to say to the Korean people and Asia Today readers?

“There are people in the United States who are dedicated to defending Korea. Our alliance is truly blood. What happens on the Korean Peninsula will have an impact on the world. It's a region. If unification, not war, comes to the Korean Peninsula, a unified Korea will be a very strong country and will make a positive contribution. So we have to focus on unification first, and then on denuclearization."

Younghoon Park






















































































































































































































































































































































































3. Why Some Koreans Want Nuclear Weapons


Excerpts:


But despite the submarine’s “strong signal,” it doesn’t solve the underlying issue, said Dr. Cheong Seong-Chang, Director of the Center for North Korean Studies at the Sejong Institute, when I interviewed him in Seoul in late June. Cheong has been one of the leading scholars advocating for Korea’s indigenous nuclear development, and he thinks the need now is still as serious as ever.
...
“The age in which the U.S. can manage security in the whole world is over,” Cheong said.
Even some Americans agree with Cheong’s argument. Doug Bandow, a scholar at the Cato Institute, has written, “Washington will have to decide whether it is willing to risk national destruction to continue protecting the ROK. If not, then Washington should contemplate the currently unthinkable—a South Korean nuclear weapon.”
Nonetheless, many Koreans consider the idea of nuclear proliferation reckless and destabilizing. Yonsei University professor Moon Chung-In called the idea a “lose-lose-lose” proposition in an op-ed in the Hankyoreh. He wrote that it would lead to a nuclear arms race in Northeast Asia and harsh sanctions on South Korea, which would have a “fatal impact on our survival, prosperity, and prestige.”
This argument isn’t going away anytime soon. As long as South Korea feels insecure, there will be calls for nuclearization and warnings against it.
For his part, Dr. Cheong is not calling for an immediate push toward a bomb. He supports taking measures to prepare for the possibility, such as lobbying for greater nuclear fuel reprocessing capability.



Why Some Koreans Want Nuclear Weapons

An increasingly unsafe neighborhood and the perception of American unreliability are slowly driving many Koreans to consider nuclearization.

The National Interest · by Mitchell Blatt · August 6, 2023

This year, an American nuclear submarine docked at a Korean port for the second time. This results from the Washington Declaration, an agreement between ROK president Yoon Suk Yeol and U.S. president Joe Biden. Struck in April, the compact reassures Seoul of the continuing coverage of Washington’s nuclear umbrella, calming national fervor in support of a Korean nuclear program.

But despite the submarine’s “strong signal,” it doesn’t solve the underlying issue, said Dr. Cheong Seong-Chang, Director of the Center for North Korean Studies at the Sejong Institute, when I interviewed him in Seoul in late June. Cheong has been one of the leading scholars advocating for Korea’s indigenous nuclear development, and he thinks the need now is still as serious as ever.

According to Cheong, South Korea faces significant threats. It’s not just North Korea, which has recently tested solid fuel rockets and displayed a miniature nuclear warhead that could fit on short-range ballistic missiles aimed at South Korea and Japan. China and Russia are also nuclear-armed potential adversaries with whom South Korea’s relations are worsening. China's nuclear stockpile will rise to 1,500 warheads in the next decade.

“South Korea is mostly concerned about North Korea’s nuclear program,” Cheong said, “but China’s nuclear threat is also growing.”


Cheong envisions a world where South Korea can provide nuclear deterrence, free from American constraints or unreliability.

He’s not the only one. Surveys earlier this year showed 70 percent or more of Koreans think South Korea needs its own nuclear weapons program. Parsing survey data is always tricky. There’s often a difference between what people might say in response to a hypothetical question and how people would think and act in reality. Another survey conducted in June found that 49.5 percent of Koreans prefer having U.S. troops provide deterrence, versus 33.8 percent prefer having their own South Korean nuclear program. But Cheong argues that a ROK nuclear program need not be the end of the alliance. In fact, it could strengthen the U.S.-ROK alliance in the next 70 years.

“Instead of the U.S. countering Chinese influence alone, if the U.S., Korea, and Japan and work together, it will be positive,” he said. “If South Korea has nuclear weapons, the U.S. will not have to focus as much attention on North Korea.”

There is no reason why an already solid bilateral relationship should sour because Korea possesses its own deterrent. Instead, Korea’s indigenous nuclearization would allow both sides to engage with each other on an equal basis.

“I believe that in the current structure of the alliance, the ROK relies excessively on the U.S.,” Cheong said. He pointed to examples of the United States pressuring South Korea to restrain itself following North Korean provocations, such as the aftermath of the 2010 bombardment of Yeongpyeong.

The North Korean attack on the island off the coast of Incheon killed two ROK soldiers and three civilians. According to Defense Secretary Robert Gates’ memoir, the Obama administration convinced former President Roh Moo Hyun to hold off a “disproportionately aggressive” response.

President Yoon also appears to be highly deferential to the United States. Cheong does not think he will push for nuclear development as long as he and Biden are both in office.

However, South Korean nuclear armament would make the region more secure, Cheong argues. The current equilibrium is unbalanced on multiple levels. North Korea possesses a nuclear advantage, while South Korea maintains a conventional weapon advantage. Cheong paints a scenario where inadvertent weapons discharge from North Korea could lead to a spiral of escalation. In such a case, North Korea, knowing it could not defeat the ROK with conventional weapons, would resort to tactical nuclear weapons. This scenario would be unthinkable if South Korea were similarly armed.

In geopolitical conflicts between two nuclear-armed nations, like the USSR and the U.S. or India and Pakistan, the two countries did not engage in direct armed warfare. Mutually Assured Destruction works.

Cheong does not think the presence of U.S. troops in the South would be an unshakable deterrent: “If the U.S. military bases are not attacked, it would be hard for the U.S. to respond.”

It is unclear what the U.S. might do, but skepticism of U.S. support is prevalent amongst a large proportion of the Korean population. A 2023 Hankook Ilbo survey found that only 36.7 percent of South Koreans think the U.S. would support the ROK “unconditionally” in a conflict with the North.

The prospect of American support over the next few decades is even more uncertain. American politics has become unstable and unpredictable. Isolationist rhetoric is popular. Donald Trump, who toyed with withdrawing U.S. troops during his 2016 campaign and presidency, is running for office again.

“The age in which the U.S. can manage security in the whole world is over,” Cheong said.

Even some Americans agree with Cheong’s argument. Doug Bandow, a scholar at the Cato Institute, has written, “Washington will have to decide whether it is willing to risk national destruction to continue protecting the ROK. If not, then Washington should contemplate the currently unthinkable—a South Korean nuclear weapon.”

Nonetheless, many Koreans consider the idea of nuclear proliferation reckless and destabilizing. Yonsei University professor Moon Chung-In called the idea a “lose-lose-lose” proposition in an op-ed in the Hankyoreh. He wrote that it would lead to a nuclear arms race in Northeast Asia and harsh sanctions on South Korea, which would have a “fatal impact on our survival, prosperity, and prestige.”

This argument isn’t going away anytime soon. As long as South Korea feels insecure, there will be calls for nuclearization and warnings against it.

For his part, Dr. Cheong is not calling for an immediate push toward a bomb. He supports taking measures to prepare for the possibility, such as lobbying for greater nuclear fuel reprocessing capability.

“I’m not arguing that we should start arming ourselves now,” he said. “But as long as the security situation gets worse, it is inevitable that South Korea will need to develop nuclear weapons.”

Mitchell Blatt is a writer and analyst based in Asia. He is the founder of the US-Korea Policy Project, a publication readers can subscribe to on Substack.

Image: Shutterstock.

The National Interest · by Mitchell Blatt · August 6, 2023



4. North Korea's Kim Jong Un Vows to Boost War Readiness Amid Tensions


Normal rhetoric as we move toward Ulchi Freedom Shield.


North Korea's Kim Jong Un Vows to Boost War Readiness Amid Tensions

themessenger.com · August 6, 2023

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un toured the country’s key weapons factories, including those producing artillery systems and launch vehicles for nuclear-capable ballistic missiles, and pledged to speed up efforts to advance his military’s arms and war readiness, state media said Sunday.

Kim’s three-day inspections through Saturday came as the United States and South Korea prepared for their next round of combined military exercises planned for later this month to counter the growing North Korean threat.

Tensions on the Korean Peninsula are at their highest level in years as the pace of North Korea’s missile tests and the joint U.S.-South Korea military drills, which Kim portrays as invasion rehearsals, have both intensified in a tit-for-tat cycle.

Some experts say Kim’s tour of the weapons factories could also be related to possible military cooperation with Moscow that may involve North Korean supplies of artillery and other ammunition as Russian President Vladimir Putin reaches out to other countries for support in the war in Ukraine.

During a visit to an unspecified factory producing large-caliber artillery systems, Kim stressed the facility’s “important responsibility and duty” in further boosting his military’s “war preparations,” North Korea’s official Korean Central News Agency said.

Kim praised the factory’s efforts to employ “scientific and technological measures” to improve the quality of shells, reduce processing times for propellent tubes and increase manufacturing speed. He also urged the factory to move ahead with development and large-scale production of new kinds of ammunition, the KCNA said.

Kim echoed the message in visits to two other factories, calling the delivery of launcher trucks designed to transport and fire ballistic missiles “a top priority” for the military and urging for the “rapid expansion” of production of more reliable engines for cruise missiles and drones.

North Korean photos showed Kim walking past huge launcher trucks designed for intercontinental ballistic missiles which recent tests indicated they could potentially reach the U.S. mainland. Other photos showed Kim firing scoped rifles during a visit to a small arms factory where he said soldiers' firearms need to be modernized, according to KCNA.

In the face of deepening confrontations with Washington and Seoul, Kim has been trying boost the visibility of his partnerships with Moscow and Beijing as he tries to break out of diplomatic isolation and insert himself into a united front against the United States.

His tour of the weapons factories comes after a giant military parade last month in North Korea’s capital, Pyongyang, where Kim was joined by Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and a Chinese ruling party official while rolling out his most powerful missiles designed to target South Korea and the United States.

Shoigu’s presence at the July 27 parade, which came after Kim took him on a tour of a domestic arms exhibition, demonstrated North Korea’s support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and added to suspicions the North was willing to supply arms to Russia to support its war efforts.

Cheong Seong Chang, an analyst at South Korea’s Sejong Institute, said Kim’s visits to the factories likely had a dual goal of encouraging the modernization of domestically produced weapons and examining artillery and other supplies that can possibly be exported to Russia.

Kim’s comments at the artillery factory about improving the quality of shells and the need to develop new types of ammunition, which he described as key to the country’s “national defense economic work,” clearly communicate an intent for exports to Russia, Cheong said.

North Korea has been aligning with Russia over the war in Ukraine, insisting that the “hegemonic policy” of the U.S.-led West forced Moscow to take military action to protect its security interests. But Pyongyang has denied U.S. accusations that it has been providing arms to Russia to aid its fighting in Ukraine.

Cheong said Kim’s comments at the factory about making missile-launch trucks could indicate that the North is seeing some progress in increasing the production of those vehicles, which would possibly improve the operational range of its ballistic weapons designed to target neighboring rivals and the U.S. mainland.

themessenger.com · August 6, 2023



5. Permanent Mission of North Korea to U.N. Defends Pyongyang's Nuclear Weapons as Sovereign Right




Permanent Mission of North Korea to U.N. Defends Pyongyang's Nuclear Weapons as Sovereign Right

By Reuters

|

Aug. 4, 2023, at 5:59 p.m.


https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2023-08-04/permanent-mission-of-north-korea-to-u-n-defends-pyongyangs-nuclear-weapons-as-sovereign-right




North Korea's Ambassador to the United Nations Kim Song speaks during a meeting of the U.N. General Assembly after China and Russia vetoed new sanctions on North Korea in the U.N. Security Council, at U.N. headquarters in New York City, New York, U.S., June 8, 2022. REUTERS/Mike Segar/File PhotoREUTERS


SEOUL (Reuters) - The Permanent Mission of North Korea to the United Nations has criticized the U.S. for having nuclear weapons and urged it to stop "sharing nuclear" or "beefing up extended deterrence," state media KCNA reported on Saturday.

While criticizing the U.S. over the AUKUS alliance and the Nuclear Consultative Group with South Korea, Pyongyang defended its nuclear weapons as an "exercise of sovereignty."

"Signatories to the NPT (Non-Proliferation Treaty) should not take issue with the DPRK over its legitimate exercise of sovereignty, as it had legally withdrawn from the NPT 20 years ago," the DPRK permanent mission to the UN Office and international organizations in Vienna was quoted as saying.

DPRK is short for the North's official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.

"Its nuclear force will never be a threat to those countries respecting its sovereignty and security interests," the permanent mission said.

Political Cartoons on World Leaders

(Reporting by Hyunsu Yim; Editing by Leslie Adler and Sandra Maler)

Copyright 2023 Thomson Reuters



6. Yoon's approval inches up for 2nd consecutive week


Yoon's approval inches up for 2nd consecutive week | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Han-joo · August 7, 2023

By Kim Han-joo

SEOUL, Aug. 7 (Yonhap) -- President Yoon Suk Yeol's approval rating inched up for the second consecutive week to 37.5 percent, a poll showed Monday.

In the poll of 2,532 eligible voters conducted by Realmeter from Monday to Friday last week, the positive assessment of Yoon's performance advanced 0.2 percentage point from the previous week, while the disapproval of Yoon's performance dropped 0.2 percentage point to 59.3 percent.

The rise in the positive assessment mostly came from respondents in their 60s and 40s, and those living in the southern cities of Gwangju, Busan and Ulsan.

While the negative assessment decreased overall, it did rise for respondents in their 20s, and those living in Seoul and the central city of Daegu.

The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.9 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence level.


President Yoon Suk Yeol (L) shakes hands with a naval officer during a visit to a naval base in Jinhae, 311 kilometers southeast of Seoul, on Aug. 3, 2023, taking time out of his weeklong summer vacation, in this photo provided by the presidential office. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)

khj@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Han-joo · August 7, 2023


7. Police search Jeju Int'l Airport after online bomb threat



Police search Jeju Int'l Airport after online bomb threat | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Park Boram · August 7, 2023

JEJU, South Korea, Aug. 7 (Yonhap) -- An online post threatening to bomb Jeju International Airport has led police to search the airport and attempt to track the writer, officials said Monday.

The post was uploaded at 9:07 p.m. on an internet community Sunday, threatening to "launch a terrorist bombing attack on Jeju International Airport at two o'clock on Monday," according to police officials.

The writer said a bomb had already been installed at the airport and threatened to stab people coming out of the airport.

After spotting the post, police conducted a search of Jeju International Airport for two hours, but no explosives were found.

Officials said police plan to deploy police personnel and step up access controls at the airport Monday to prepare for any emergency situation.

Police were also tracking the writer, pledging to sternly punish the suspect.


A special police squad and a police tank patrol Jeju International Airport on Aug. 6, 2023. (Yonhap)

pbr@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Park Boram · August 7, 2023





8. Kimchi exports up 20 percent in H1 on robust demand from US, EU


Soft power comes in many flavors.


Kimchi exports up 20 percent in H1 on robust demand from US, EU

The Korea Times · August 6, 2023

People make kimchi at an event organized by K-Biz SME Love Sharing Foundation in Yeouido, Seoul, Nov. 28, 2022. YonhapBy Lee Kyung-min


Exports of kimchi in the first six months of this year exceeded $80 million (104 billion won) for the first time, an increase of more than 20 percent compared to the annual average, and up 4.8 percent from a year ago, the food ministry said Sunday.​ It registered a trade surplus of $1.7 million in the same period.


Propelling the solid growth is a robust demand for the healthy Korean traditional dish in the U.S. and European Union.


The Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs said exports of kimchi in the first half came to $81 million, up from the previous year's $77 million. The figure is an increase of 20.3 percent from the annual average of $67 million.


The trade surplus of $1.7 million is a significant rebound from the trade deficit of $7.5 million in the January-June period of last year. The figure registered a robust $18.3 million trade surplus in the first half of 2021.


Exports in the first six months of this year increased to 23,000 tons, up 3 percent from 22,000 tons last year.


The U.S. imported $20.2 million worth of Korea-made kimchi in the first half of this year, up 22.7 percent from the previous first half.


Exports to Europe came to $9.1 million in the same period, up 3.2 percent from the previous year.


Japan imported $33.8 million worth of kimchi, up 2.7 percent from a year ago. China and Southeast Asian countries imported $5.7 million and $3.9 million worth of Korea's traditional dish, down 19.8 percent and 7.9 percent from the previous year, respectively.


The ministry said the country will seek to achieve $300 million in kimchi exports by 2027, as underpinned by innovation-driven super-gap competitiveness over Korea's kimchi-making peers, most notably China and Japan.


Among other strategies are outlining policy assistance to expand exports, stabilize supply and demand of high-quality ingredients and promoting health benefits and values of kimchi consumption.


The country will introduce vegan and low-salt kimchi varieties and develop technologies to ensure fresh delivery.



The Korea Times · August 6, 2023


9. Why are over 70% of North Korean defectors female?


Excerpts:


So we don't know for certain why most defectors are female. It might be somewhere in the axis of economic pressure, mobility opportunities and sex trafficking ― among many potential factors. But we do know there's an opportunity to discover the push-and-pull factors that mobilize immigration ― particularly in women ― as well as the unique challenges women face en route, by tapping into the networks of defectors in South Korea.

No doubt, more research examining defection is needed within a gender framework, using large samples of North Korean refugees and empirical tests ― which could ultimately serve as tools to improve gendered immigration policies in South Korea and other receiving nations.

Why are over 70% of North Korean defectors female?

The Korea Times · August 6, 2023

A wedding ceremony is conducted at Hanawon in Gyeonggi Province, Oct. 21, 1999. Korea Times Archive


By Elinor Ketelhohn


Every day, news about North Korea is broadcast to the world ― updates on ballistic missile launches, nuclear threats and spy satellites. While many are intrigued by the country's rampant military threats and mysterious operations, significantly less attention is paid to the people that flee over its borders.


Last month I visited the Hanawon facilities in Gyeonggi Province that welcome North Korean defectors to the South, and learned a striking statistic: over 70 percent of North Korean defectors in South Korea are female.

Why? I couldn't get a single conclusive answer.


I asked the officials on the tour and got many different answers. Women immigrate for their children and families, said one. Women are sick of the extreme patriarchy and authoritarianism in North Korea, and have less to lose by leaving, said another. Some suggested men are more patriotic, having served in the military. Others said men just stay in China ― comfortable with work there ― and never make it to the South.


While these hypotheses sound feasible, they should be tested empirically. After all, 71.9 percent is a remarkable statistic worth studying. Less than half of the global migrant stock are female, comprising only 48.1 percent according to the latest U.N. International Migration Stock Report; in Asia, the reported share is even lower at 41.8 percent. Here is an enormous opportunity to measure the push-and-pull factors that might mobilize women more, and discover the unique challenges they experience.


So I asked Dr. Shin Mi-nyeo ― Ph.D. in North Korean Studies and CEO of Saejowi, an NGO that has provided resettlement support to a third of all defectors since 1988 ― why she thought most defectors were female. After having met over 7,000 refugees throughout her career, she attributes it to women's responsibility for the family: in times of hardship, mothers bear the financial burden of the household.

"During North Korea's March of Suffering, in which many people starved to death due to mass famine and economic hardship, state rations stopped suddenly," Shin said. "In North Korea, individuals do not save for the future or own property," so the effects were disastrous.


The March of Suffering, also known as the Arduous March, was a famine coupled with an economic crisis in North Korea between 1994 and 1998, estimated to have killed upwards of 2 million people.


In the midst of mass starvation, "women were in charge of the household economy and feeding their children," she remarked.


This argument was echoed by a North Korean defector I spoke with in Seoul, who wishes to remain anonymous. She immigrated in the early 2000s, and is now a licensed special counselor for refugees.


"Since the 1990s, since the famine, women have been staying at home, and men have been working and entangled in organizational life," she said. "Women are in charge of sustenance, so they know poverty first and defect first to make money in China for their families."


The famine of the 1990s seems to have exacerbated gender roles ― increasing the pressure on women to care for the household and, conversely, furthering the indoctrination of men into their state-run workplaces.


"If men don't show up for work, they are criticized for their ideologies, humiliated in front of a crowd and sentenced to correction," she said.


So men face more barriers to defection, given their entrenchment in the state workforce, as well as military draft. This exemplifies how women are not only more eager to leave for their family's sake, but more able to do so as they are less fixed in the state's labor force.


But economic factors and gendered mobility are not the only elements to consider. Sex trafficking cannot be ignored when accounting for defection.


Shin emphasized that female defectors are often sex trafficked in China ― and they often do not know it when they cross the border. The counselor pointed to this as well, explaining that women are often sold by brokers in China.


A typical immigration route for defectors arriving in South Korea is long and arduous, and starts with China. They often cross the border of North Korea into northeastern Chinese provinces, and travel onwards into Southeast Asia; upon their arrival in Thailand, they are jailed and ultimately deported to South Korea.

This journey involves traversing multiple countries, the first of which is China.

"Most female defectors experience (sex) trafficking in China," Shin said. Brokers in North Korea arrange with Chinese traffickers, and by the time women realize they are being trafficked, they are already across the border.


A woman walks through a health center for North Korean female defectors in South Korea, July 10. Joint Press Corps


So we don't know for certain why most defectors are female. It might be somewhere in the axis of economic pressure, mobility opportunities and sex trafficking ― among many potential factors. But we do know there's an opportunity to discover the push-and-pull factors that mobilize immigration ― particularly in women ― as well as the unique challenges women face en route, by tapping into the networks of defectors in South Korea.


No doubt, more research examining defection is needed within a gender framework, using large samples of North Korean refugees and empirical tests ― which could ultimately serve as tools to improve gendered immigration policies in South Korea and other receiving nations.


Elinor Ketelhohn is a student of comparative politics at Columbia University. She is studying in South Korea with the Council on International Educational Exchange (CIEE) and volunteers at Saejowi Initiative for National Integration, an NGO that assists North Korean defectors settling in South Korea.



The Korea Times · August 6, 2023


10. Frustration and Questions Swirl for Family of Soldier Who Ran into North Korea



Frustration and Questions Swirl for Family of Soldier Who Ran into North Korea

military.com · by Konstantin Toropin,Thomas Novelly · August 4, 2023

The family of Army Pvt. Travis King -- the soldier who ran across the border into North Korea in mid-July -- say they've heard nothing from the military since they were first informed of the incident.

As the rest of the world watches perplexed, they are also left with questions about what the young soldier did in the months before he made the choice to run across the border from South Korea, a longtime U.S. ally, and into the hands of one of the world's most brutal and secretive regimes.

"It's now been 16 or 17 days, and they have no information and they feel like they've just been completely left to the wolves," Jonathan Franks, a newly appointed spokesman for the family, told Miltary.com in a phone interview Friday.

"They are frustrated at the inability to get any information other than from reporters' articles," Franks added.

In the days leading up to his sudden flight to North Korea, King, 23, had just been released from a South Korean prison and was set to fly back to Fort Bliss, Texas, to face additional military discipline. Instead, he somehow ended up on a civilian tour of the border village of Panmunjom, a major tourist attraction, where he proceeded to dash into North Korea on July 18.

Franks said that the first -- and only -- contact the family had with the military was when an Army noncommissioned officer called King's mother to notify her of the incident. Franks said she remembered it being a sergeant, though he concedes that in the emotion of the moment, she may not have remembered accurately.

King's "mom was kind of distraught, understandably," he said, adding that "she can't remember exactly what was said" on the call.

Military.com reached out to the Army for a comment but did not receive a reply in time for publication.

On July 21, three days after news of King's run into North Korea broke, the family, through the Army, said they would not be doing interviews and asked for privacy.

Finally, on Aug. 1, the Pentagon announced that North Korea had acknowledged the United Nations Command's inquiries about King. But Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder, the chief spokesman for the Defense Department, said he didn't have "any substantial progress to read out."

Franks announced that he is representing King's immediate family Thursday evening on social media and said they have had questions not only about the young soldier's condition but his behavior while stationed in Korea.

"He did not have these problems where he was stationed last," said Franks, who traveled to Kenosha, Wisconsin, to speak with the family in person. "The last time the family laid eyes on him prior to his deployment [to South Korea], he was happy, he was fine, he was talking about a long-term career in the Army."

According to Franks, "there was just a cluster of problems in the fall of '22" and "everything goes to hell."

But one person connected to King's family, who spoke under condition of anonymity in order to freely discuss family matters, said that this period roughly coincided with a time when everyone was deeply emotional over the death of King's little cousin.

However, even on top of those emotions, this person had preexisting doubts of whether King was stable enough for military life.

"I know Travis enough to personally say he should have never been accepted into the Army nor sent overseas," the person connected to the family said. "He is a quiet kid, but if he is triggered, he has a hard time self-controlling."

Franks said that the idea that King had a hard time exhibiting self control is "inconsistent" with what his mom and grandparents recall.

Regardless, no one is denying that King ran afoul of the South Korean legal system in the fall of 2022.

The military newspaper Stars and Stripes reported that King was accused of assault on Sept. 25, 2022, according to court records reviewed by the paper, and Seoul police alleged he pushed and punched a patron at a Mapo bar who refused to buy him a drink.

Franks said the family is "horrified" at the allegation, and part of their desire to know more about King's time in Korea is to offer an apology. However, King's mom also wants to know -- "was my son provoked?" he added.

Several outlets also reported that King was arrested just before 4 a.m. on Oct. 8, 2022, in Mapo and placed in a police car, where he proceeded to cause several thousand dollars worth of damage. He also went on an anti-Korean rant.

After he failed to pay a fine stemming from that incident, he was sent to prison. However, according to the family, that didn't cause the messages from him to stop.

Franks says that while the family was in touch with King throughout his time in South Korea, "his messages became ominous."

"Some of them were received while he's allegedly in South Korea in prison doing hard labor," Franks said, before noting that he's personally seen them.

The family now wonders whether all the messages they've received from King were indeed written by him, which is another reason they are frustrated over the lack of communication from the Army.

"We have information relevant to the investigation. ... These people would like to be good citizens and provide it … in exchange for real constructive, two-way engagement with the military," Franks said.

Franks says that former New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson -- a man who has negotiated with North Korea on numerous occasions and helped arrange prisoner releases from other countries -- has agreed to help in their case.

-- Konstantin Toropin can be reached at konstantin.toropin@military.com. Follow him on Twitter @ktoropin.

-- Thomas Novelly can be reached at thomas.novelly@military.com. Follow him on Twitter @TomNovelly.

military.com · by Konstantin Toropin,Thomas Novelly · August 4, 2023


11. North Korea calls itself a ‘responsible nuclear power’


I do not think they can justify this description.


I am partial to Dr. Bruce Bennett's description: north Korea is a non-compliant, unsafe nuclear experimenter.


North Korea calls itself a ‘responsible nuclear power’ - UPI.com

By Adam Schrader

upi.com


Kim Jong Un presides over a military parade while flanked by Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Li Hongzhong, vice-chairman of the Standing Committee of the Chinese National People's Congress on July 27. File Photo by KCNA/UPI | License Photo

Aug. 6 (UPI) -- North Korea's permanent mission to the United Nations on Saturday called the isolated country a "responsible nuclear power."

"Today's sobering reality is that the threat to international peace and security and the nuclear non-proliferation regime is being generated by the United States," the mission said in a statement published by North Korea's Foreign Ministry.

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North Korea said that the United States "unilaterally" prioritizes the "narrow interests of itself and its allies" on the U.N. Security Council and blasted the AUKUS alliance between the U.S., Britain and Australia announced in 2021.

One of the main provisions of the AUKUS alliance regards assisting Australia in acquiring nuclear-powered submarines. The deal has been criticized by scholars and politicians and described as an act of nuclear proliferation.

North Korea accused the U.S. of raising the level of military tension between the two countries to the highest level in 42 years and "to the point of nuclear war" by establishing the bilateral Nuclear Consultative Group with South Korea.

The White House said in a statement in July that the U.S. and South Korea held what it described as an "inaugural meeting" of the Nuclear Consultative Group.

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"Any nuclear attack by North Korea against the United States or its allies is unacceptable and will result in the end of that regime, and the U.S. and [South Korea] sides highlighted that any nuclear attack by the DPRK against [South Korea] will be met with a swift, overwhelming, and decisive response," the White House said.

"Both sides affirmed that the NCG will play an integral role in discussing and advancing bilateral approaches, including guidelines, to nuclear and strategic planning and responses to DPRK aggression."

The White House said the U.S. and South Korea will plan "operations, exercises, simulations, trainings, and investment activities" to act as a deterrent against a nuclear North Korea.

North Korea accused the U.S. and South Korea of simulating of nuclear weapons against North Korea and added that the country is seeking to strengthen its self-defense nuclear deterrent in what it called "a legitimate exercise of its sovereignty to prevent the outbreak of a nuclear war."

"In spite of this, the U.S., along with its followers, has made a series of statements that grossly misrepresent the reality of our self-defense measures and are a political provocation to mask the identity of the DPRK as a criminal nuclear power and to deflect the international condemnation that will result from its failure to implement nuclear disarmament and nuclear nonproliferation," North Korea said.

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"The Democratic People's Republic of Korea is a responsible nuclear power committed to the prohibition of nuclear use and threats against non-nuclear states and the obligation to prevent nuclear non-proliferation, and its nuclear arsenal poses no threat to countries that respect our sovereignty and security interests."



upi.com


12. S. Korea's top general visits key Air Force, Navy, Marine units to check readiness


Excerpts:


At the Air Force unit, Kim said the North may ratchet up the threat and intensity of provocations on the pretext of responding to the UFS exercise, while calling for a readiness posture to enable an "immediate response" in the event of a provocation.
"A requirement for an operational success in case of an enemy drone provocation is the immediate operation of response forces capable of identifying and downing enemy drones in a timely manner," Kim was quoted as saying.
Kim then visited the Marine unit in charge of defending front-line islands and the Navy unit tasked with safeguarding waters south of the Northern Limit Line, a de facto inter-Korean sea border.
At the Marine base, Kim called for dealing a "bold" blow to an enemy in the event of a provocation to make it deeply "regret" the provocation.
While at the Navy base, the general pointed out that should an enemy engage in a provocation, the South Korean military should "shatter the enemy's will" for provocations through the operation of "overwhelming joint forces."


S. Korea's top general visits key Air Force, Navy, Marine units to check readiness | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Song Sang-ho · August 7, 2023

SEOUL, Aug. 7 (Yonhap) -- Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) Chairman Gen. Kim Seung-kyum visited front-line Air Force, Navy and Marine units Monday to check readiness amid concerns about the possibility of North Korean provocations ahead of a major summertime South Korea-U.S. military exercise.

Kim inspected the Air Force's Eighth Fighter Wing in Wonju, 87 kilometers east of Seoul, a forward-deployed naval unit and a Marine Corps unit on the northwestern border island of Yeonpyeong.

His visit came as Seoul and Washington are preparing to hold the annual Ulchi Freedom Shield (UFS) exercise set to kick off later this month. Pyongyang has denounced the exercise as a war rehearsal against it.

At the Air Force unit, Kim said the North may ratchet up the threat and intensity of provocations on the pretext of responding to the UFS exercise, while calling for a readiness posture to enable an "immediate response" in the event of a provocation.

"A requirement for an operational success in case of an enemy drone provocation is the immediate operation of response forces capable of identifying and downing enemy drones in a timely manner," Kim was quoted as saying.

Kim then visited the Marine unit in charge of defending front-line islands and the Navy unit tasked with safeguarding waters south of the Northern Limit Line, a de facto inter-Korean sea border.

At the Marine base, Kim called for dealing a "bold" blow to an enemy in the event of a provocation to make it deeply "regret" the provocation.

While at the Navy base, the general pointed out that should an enemy engage in a provocation, the South Korean military should "shatter the enemy's will" for provocations through the operation of "overwhelming joint forces."


Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Kim Seung-kyum (L) inspects readiness at a hangar of the Air Force's Eighth Fighter Wing in Wonju, 87 kilometers east of Seoul, on Aug. 7, 2023, in this photo released by his office. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)

sshluck@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Song Sang-ho · August 7, 2023


13. In a Taiwan war Seoul’s problem won’t be Pyongyang


Sun Tzu said: "never assume the enemy will not attack, make yourself invincible."


Of course the use of "plenty" of nuclear warheads would turn the Korean peninsula into a nuclear winter.


Maps and graphics at the link: https://asiatimes.com/2023/08/in-a-taiwan-war-seouls-problem-wont-be-pyongyang/


Excerpts:


The US may run low on conventional weapons stocks, but it has plenty of nuclear warheads.
Superficially, Seoul’s alliance with the United States seems to be the root cause of the ROK’s three body problem. South Koreans fear they face both of the possible downsides of an alliance relationship: being dragged into someone else’s war, and being abandoned by one’s partner in a time of peril.
Beijing and Pyongyang, however, deserve blame for their willingness to use violence to impose their will on neighboring countries. And in the main, if war breaks out in the Taiwan Strait, the ROK’s problem will be China, not North Korea.





In a Taiwan war Seoul’s problem won’t be Pyongyang

Fearing extinction of the Kim regime, North Korea is unlikely to escalate beyond a small-scale lethal attack

asiatimes.com · by Denny Roy · August 7, 2023

South Koreans are worried about the three-body problem. Not the astrophysical phenomenon featured in the popular science fiction novel by Liu Cixin; rather, it’s the geopolitical phenomenon that links China, Taiwan and North Korea. Because of the relationships among these three governments, a war in the Taiwan Strait could cause a military conflict on the Korean Peninsula.

If the USA intervened to defend Taiwan from an attempted Chinese takeover, Pyongyang, possibly at Beijing’s request, might carry out aggression against the Republic of Korea (ROK) at a time when South Koreans feel relatively vulnerable because of US preoccupation with the battle some 1,500 kilometers to the south.

From President Yoon Suk Yeol to analysts in both academic and government, South Koreans have expressed anxiety about an opportunistic North Korean attack.

There is no question that a Taiwan Strait war would be a calamity for the region, including South Korea. The economic effects alone would severe, with military operations in the East China Sea disrupting the trade that the ROK heavily relies on. Moreover, Seoul would be politically squeezed between its ally the United States and its main trading partner and well-armed neighbor China.

The US military would likely use its ROK-based strike aircraft in the fight against China, leading Beijing to consider missile attacks that would fall inside South Korean territory. Seoul’s difficult challenge would be to find a path that both avoided outright war with China and spared Seoul from US condemnation as a useless ally.

The ROK would be in danger of suffering serious long-term damage to its prosperity, via the collapse of economic cooperation with China, and to its security, by creating a hostile relationship with China and possibly ending the alliance with the USA.

That China and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) might coordinate simultaneous attacks is plausible. It is safe to assume PRC planners have at least thought about it. For what it’s worth, the two countries are still treaty allies, although the efficacy of that alliance has proven questionable over the years.

The PRC is not only in a near-panic about what it perceives as the USA encouraging Taiwan independence as a means of “containing” China; it also views with alarm increased South Korean willingness under the Yoon government to support an anti-China US agenda.

US air bases in South Korea. Map: Wikilpedia

Beijing’s wish is that the ROK government would block the United States from using South Korea as a base or staging area for military operations in the Taiwan Strait. But Chinese analysts no longer believe that is likely.

Pyongyang, as well, sees linkage between the China-Taiwan and DPRK-ROK conflicts. The North Korean government supports the PRC position that China owns Taiwan and that the cross-Strait issue is a Chinese “internal affair.”

North Korean Vice Foreign Affairs Minister Pak Myong-ho combined the two issues in a 2021 statement. The USA, he said, tries to block national unification in both China and Korea as a way to “stifle our country and China, both socialist countries, in order to hold its supremacy.” Pak said US forces “being concentrated near Taiwan” to pressure China “can be committed to a military operation targeting the DPRK at any time.”

Pak also disparaged the “assertion” that China and the DPRK would coordinate to “cause military tension in Taiwan and on the Korean Peninsula.” He compared this to “a guilty party filing the suit first.” Somehow this seems less like a reassurance that China and the DPRK would never do this than an acknowledgment that it sounds like a good idea.

Nevertheless, South Korean worries about the particular scenario of North Korea taking advantage of a Taiwan Strait conflict are unnecessary. The ROK could take in stride any likely DPRK actions.

To begin with, the DPRK’s policy toward South Korea follows Pyongyang’s own considerations and timeline. It is far from certain that an attack timed to match what China was doing in the Taiwan Strait would align with Pyongyang’s agenda and plans at that time. The North Koreans would be on guard against being exploited for the PRC self-interest.

An obvious possible DPRK “provocation” would be a test nuclear explosion or an intercontinental ballistic missile test flight. Both of these kinds of tests, however, have become routine. They will occur regularly even if the United States is not distracted by another war, and they require no military response or adjustment by US or ROK forces – although sometimes Seoul or Washington will answer with a show of force as a morale booster for the South Korean public.

The North Korean government might carry out some form of small-scale lethal attack. This would not be a shock to South Koreans, who suffered many such attacks prior to the hiatus that has been in place since 2010.


Examples might include

  • a naval skirmish near the disputed west sea maritime border – see reconstruction above of what South Korea said was a midget submarine attack on its corvette ROKS Chonan on March 25, 2010, in which 46 sailors were lost;
  • North Korean artillery shelling of an ROK-held island;
  • a commando raid; or
  • a rocket strike against a sparsely populated part of South Korea.

Although tragic for the families who lose loved ones, these attacks cause no significant harm to overall national security.

More serious would be a large-scale North Korean attack, such as bombardment of a metropolitan area or military base. Whether it occurred during a Taiwan Strait war or not, such an attack would evoke major ROK military retaliation, probably escalating to all-out war and the consequent extinction of the Kim regime. For this reason Pyongyang is highly unlikely to choose this option.

An attempted DPRK invasion of the South is equally unlikely. Although the ROK armed forces could almost certainly defeat it by themselves, they would have help from the ROK-based US ground troops who would remain on the Peninsula because most of the American forces fighting in the Taiwan Strait would be ships and aircraft.

Furthermore, either a small or a large North Korean attack would strengthen the rationale for keeping US forces on the Peninsula to deter the DPRK rather than sending them to fight in the Taiwan Strait. This would mollify the South Korean concern about the Americans abandoning them at a dangerous time.

The most audacious possible DPRK action, the use of a nuclear weapon to kill South Koreans (or Japanese), is out of the question for Pyongyang, even if the United States is simultaneously fighting to protect Taiwan.

People in Seoul on January 1, 2020, watch a television news program showing file footage of a North Korean missile test. Photo: Asia Times files / AFP / Jung Yeon-je

Although governments are typically careful not to specify in advance how they would respond to particular hypothetical situations, the US 2022 Nuclear Posture Review says ,with extraordinary bluntness, “There is no scenario in which the Kim regime could employ nuclear weapons and survive.”

The US may run low on conventional weapons stocks, but it has plenty of nuclear warheads.

Superficially, Seoul’s alliance with the United States seems to be the root cause of the ROK’s three body problem. South Koreans fear they face both of the possible downsides of an alliance relationship: being dragged into someone else’s war, and being abandoned by one’s partner in a time of peril.

Beijing and Pyongyang, however, deserve blame for their willingness to use violence to impose their will on neighboring countries. And in the main, if war breaks out in the Taiwan Strait, the ROK’s problem will be China, not North Korea.

Denny Roy is a senior fellow at the East-West Center in Honolulu.

Related

asiatimes.com · by Denny Roy · August 7, 2023




14. N. Korean leader's visits to arms factories apparently had 'multiple' purposes: Seoul



The north is showing off its defense industry? It may send some obsolete weapons and ammunition to Russia while South Korea is providing advanced weapons around the world as a partner in the Arsenal of Democracy. The north cannot compete with South Korea which is a Global Pivotal State, that chooses to be a peaceful nuclear power, that is a partner in the Arsenal of Democracy, a champion of human rights, that seeks to shape and support the rules based international order.


Excerpt:


"(Kim's latest inspections) appear to have had multiple purposes -- show off the country's achievements in the defense sector, respond to Seoul-Washington's joint military drills and seek arms exports," Koo Byoung-sam, spokesperson at the ministry, told a regular press briefing.


N. Korean leader's visits to arms factories apparently had 'multiple' purposes: Seoul | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Soo-yeon · August 7, 2023

SEOUL, Aug. 7 (Yonhap) -- North Korean leader Kim Jong-un appears to have visited major weapons factories last week for "multiple" purposes, including a response to a planned military exercise between Seoul and Washington, and an intention for arms exports, South Korea's unification ministry said Monday.

The North's leader inspected key weapons factories, including those producing shells for large-caliber multiple rocket launchers and engines for strategic cruise missiles, from Thursday to Saturday.

His "field guidance" came as South Korea and the United States plan to hold their annual summertime Ulchi Freedom Shield exercise later this month. It also came amid speculation that North Korea may seek arms exports to Russia for use in Moscow's war with Kyiv.

"(Kim's latest inspections) appear to have had multiple purposes -- show off the country's achievements in the defense sector, respond to Seoul-Washington's joint military drills and seek arms exports," Koo Byoung-sam, spokesperson at the ministry, told a regular press briefing.


This photo, carried by the North's Korean Central News Agency on Aug. 6, 2023, shows North Korean leader Kim Jong-un giving "field guidance" at an arms factory. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)

Koo said it is "very regrettable" that the North has continued to develop nuclear weapons, intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and conventional arms at the cost of helping the North Korean people.

During the tour, the North's leader used the expression of "the national defense economic work" for the first time. Experts said Pyongyang may seek to raise foreign currency earnings and bolster its moribund economy through its defense industry.

"It seems very unprecedented that the North used such an expression. If this means arms exports, it is deplorable that the North has publicly stated it will violate United Nations Security Council resolutions (banning its nuclear and weapons programs)," Koo said.

North Korea appears to be bolstering its military cooperation with Russia. Kim was joined by Russia's Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and a senior Chinese official during a military parade held July 27. He also gave Shoigu a tour of an arms exhibition in Pyongyang, including new attack and spy drones and ICBMs.

In regard to the resumption of public activity by Pak Jong-chon, a dismissed senior North Korean official, the ministry official said more time is needed to analyze his role.

Pak, former vice chairman of the ruling party's central military commission, was included among Kim's entourage for the latest inspections after he was dismissed from the post at a key party meeting in late December.

sooyeon@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Soo-yeon · August 7, 2023


​15. 350 Korean language schools to be set up overseas by 2027


Korean soft power at work. While I was in Korea recently, I met with about 40 international students who were just completing their year of Korean language education and were about to start their PhD programs in technology, engineering, IT, etc. The government has a program that is designed to provide high level education to international students with the intent to have them return to Korea to work in Korean companies to help with the demographic challenges. I think their program is kind of a Fulbright scholarship program but on steroids since it fully funds 5 years of study at the PhD level.




350 Korean language schools to be set up overseas by 2027

The Korea Times · August 7, 2023

Culture Minister Park Bo-gyoon, left, speaks at the World Korean Educator Conference 2023 at Intercontinental Seoul COEX hotel in Gangnam District, Seoul, Monday. Yonhap


Gov't unveils globalization strategy for Korean language as demand for K-culture soars

By Lee Min-young


Korea will expand the number of state-run Korean language centers around the world to 350 by 2027 from the current 248, following increased global interest in the country's language and culture, the Ministry of Culture, Sports and Tourism said, Monday.


The government will also dispatch more Korean language educators to other countries and develop education programs that utilize the latest Korean cultural content.


These measures were announced at the opening ceremony of the World Korean Educator Conference, an annual event where lecturers at King Sejong Institute centers around the world and Korean language educators from other organizations discuss educational methods and form networks. About 250 people participated in this year's event.


The ministry said the popularity of Korean cultural content, represented by K-pop boy group BTS and Korean dramas including "Squid Game," is expanding beyond Asia to Europe, the Middle East and South America, resulting in increased interest in learning the Korean language.


Citing his meetings with young people in Vietnam and Poland in June and July, Culture Minister Park Bo-gyoon said at the ceremony in Seoul, "The individuals expressing their passion and dreams for K-culture in fluent Korean made me profoundly realize the elevated status and influence of Korea and the Korean language on the global stage. Language serves as a potent force connecting nations with other nations and individuals with other individuals, laying the foundation for solidarity and collaboration."


According to the ministry, about 740 people learned Korean at 13 centers run by the King Sejong Institute in three countries in 2007 when the institute was launched. And the number skyrocketed to 110,000 in 2022, while there are now 248 centers in 85 countries.


The ministry plans to boost the number of centers to 350 by 2027. The plan gives priority to countries that do not have Korean language education centers, with some nations in the Middle East and South America, such as the United Arab Emirates, being the key hubs.


The number of instructors at King Sejong Institute is small compared to the soaring number of attendees. As a result, the government also plans to increase the number of teachers from 270 in 2022 to 350 by 2027. In addition, it will seek to provide education programs to locals who are fluent in Korean, such as those who studied the language at local universities, so they can work as lecturers at the institute.


Considering that many Korean language learners started as fans of Korean cultural content, the ministry will develop learning programs based on such materials to keep them motivated. The institutes will also work with Korean cultural centers in major cities across the world.


It will set up an online alumni network, tapping into some 700,000 people who have studied at the institute so far, to help them share information about Korea and the language.



The Korea Times · August 7, 2023



16. North Korea's arms exports to Russia likely to increase: analysts



Photo at the link. Kim Jong Un needs to work on his safety procedures. Note his finger on the trigger. But I am sure there is no one in the north who would correct him.



North Korea's arms exports to Russia likely to increase: analysts

https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2023/08/103_356526.html

The Korea Times · August 7, 2023

This photo released Sunday by state media shows North Korean leader holding a rifle during an inspection of munitions factories at an undisclosed location in North Korea. Yonhap


Pyongyang promotes 'defense business' as it reinforces military ties with Moscow

By Jung Min-ho

As Seoul cements its position as one of the world's fastest-growing arms exporters, Pyongyang may also be aiming to emulate the South's success.


After North Korean leader Kim Jong-un inspected key weapons factories from Thursday to Saturday, its state media honed in on "defense business" ― a term it has never before used.


Speaking to reporters on Monday, Koo Byoung-sam, the spokesman for the Unification Ministry, said that recent signs indicate that North Korea might be seeking to export arms to Russia, a country in need due to its invasion of Ukraine.

"If that really is what it (North Korea) aims for, it is deeply regrettable as it is tantamount to admitting that it will violate the U.N. resolutions," Koo said.


For some experts, the ministry's analysis is a bit too conservative. They believe that North Korea has already violated the resolutions by sending arms to Moscow and that the size of its exports of "Russia-tailored" weapons will likely expand further.


"Russia is desperate and North Korea can gain much from Russia by providing what it needs. This creates a perfect environment for business between the two," Cho Han-bum, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification, a think tank, told The Korea Times. "Given that they care less about what the U.N. says, North Korea will likely redouble efforts to sell more arms as it seeks to secure food, energy or technology support in return."


While inspecting factories making missile engines, artillery systems and other weapons, Kim called for the modernization and expansion of production lines.


This photo released by state media shows North Korean leader Kim Jong-un speaking with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu during a meeting at the office building of the Party Central Committee in Pyongyang, North Korea, July 26. Yonhap


The move comes a week after a military parade marking a halt in the 1950-53 Korean War last month in Pyongyang, where Kim was joined by Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.


"Kim and Shoigu spent much time together, visiting a weapons exhibition, having meals and meetings," Cheong Seong-chang, a senior analyst at the Sejong Institute, a think tank, said. "This special treatment suggests that North Korea and Russia may have reached a deal beyond simply exchanging arms with food. It could be a deeper-level accord involving, say, Russia's technological support for the development of North Korea's military satellite or nuclear-powered submarine."


The experts said other countries will be unable to know ― let alone stop ― the trade details between the neighboring countries connected by rail. Late last year, they resumed cross-border railway trade, ending a two-year hiatus caused by COVID-19 border restrictions.


Since then, Washington has repeatedly accused Pyongyang of supplying weapons, including a significant number of artillery shells, to Moscow. After the initial phases of the war, Russia has been struggling to make headway on the battlefields due to many reasons including insufficient arms.


The two countries have denied the allegations.


All this will likely continue to fuel tensions on the Korean Peninsula, where experts warn that a Cold War-like division is deepening, with the North strengthening military ties with Russia and China to counter South Korea and its democratic allies.



The Korea Times · August 7, 2023


17. Rare Russian VIP Jet in North Korea Spurs Arms Deal Concern




Rare Russian VIP Jet in North Korea Spurs Arms Deal Concern


By Jon Herskovitz and Sangmi Cha

August 7, 2023 at 2:00 AM EDT

Updated on August 7, 2023 at 5:18 AM EDT



An unusual sighting of a Russian military jet in North Korea is stoking concern that Kim Jong Un is selling Vladimir Putin weapons as ties strengthen between the sanctioned states.

Tracking data from FlightRadar24 shows the Russian Air Force Ilyushin IL-62M flying from Moscow to Pyongyang on July 31 and returning on Aug. 2. Satellite imagery showed the aircraft at Pyongyang’s international airport for about 36 hours, according to NK News, a Seoul-based provider of news on North Korea that also tracks flight activity in the isolated country.

The flight was the first by this type of Russian military VIP plane to North Korea since mid-2019, when Russian Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin traveled to Pyongyang, NK News said. Pyongyang closed its borders in early 2020 due to the pandemic, choking its economy.

Neither Russia nor North Korea have reported on the plane, and it is unclear who was aboard. Russia’s Defense Ministry didn’t respond to a request for comment.


Source: FlightRadar24

The journey by the Russian Air Force jet came just days after Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu traveled to Pyongyang on a similar plane to attend a military parade hosted by Kim, who also gave him a tour of a weapons exhibit. It “appears related to following up on Shoigu’s delegation visit and possibly agreements made with Kim,” NK News said, adding that analysts “speculated that the two could have made weapons deals.”

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North Korea has been trying to revive its economy, largely by resuming trade with China and evading international sanctions. Russia recently restarted oil shipments to North Korea for the first time since 2020, the United Nations has said, following the earlier resumption of grain exports. It is impossible to know what North Korea is sending in return but both the US government and independent analysts suggested munitions from the stockpiles North Korea has built up amid tensions with Seoul.

Just after Shoigu returned to Moscow, the US reiterated its concern that Moscow was seeking to restock ammunition reserves depleted by its war in Ukraine.

“We’ve seen in the past Russia looking to try to obtain munitions from countries like North Korea,” Pentagon Press Secretary Brigadier General Pat Ryder said in a briefing on Aug. 1. “It highlights the dire straits that Russia finds itself in, when it comes to resupplying and refreshing its munitions capabilities.”

The US, European Union and others stepped up sanctions against Russia after its February 2022 invasion, including against its leading banks, while also warning nations against materially supporting Moscow’s war effort. The US strategy over Ukraine rests in part on choking off Putin’s economy and hindering its armed forces so any backing from other nations could undercut that.​ 

The most obvious items that Pyongyang has and Moscow needs are artillery shells and rockets that Moscow can use in Soviet-era weaponry pushed into service in Ukraine. The Kremlin’s war machine has been burning through its stocks and is scrambling for supplies with the war now in its second year.

Since North Korea’s economy is so small, an arms deal of about $250 million would be equal to about 1% of its GDP and welcome for a country cut off from the global financial system due to sanctions aimed at ending its nuclear weapons program.

See: Secret Deals With Russia Help Kim Jong Un Fund Nuclear Program

A sale of North Korea’s newest short-range ballistic missiles would constitute a pretty significant escalation, said weapons expert Joost Oilemans. It “would likely be soon identified (if only during transport) and condemned as a gross sanctions violation,” he wrote in an email to Bloomberg News.

Russia has been scouring its arms depots for any functioning armored vehicles, “reactivating some absolutely stunningly old equipment” such as T-54 and T-62 tanks and may need help keeping them running, he said. “North Korea is perhaps the final remaining producer of spare parts for these types as it still maintains an extensive inventory itself,” Oilemans said.

Kim also showed Shoigu new drones but those are unlikely to make their way to a battlefield in Ukraine anytime soon.

“They are just not at a mature stage,” said Yoon Sukjoon, a retired captain in South Korea’s navy who is a senior fellow at the Korea Institute for Military Affairs. North Korea lacks the manufacturing capacity to produce them in significant numbers anyway, he said.










De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

Phone: 202-573-8647

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com
 
 
De Oppresso Liber,
David Maxwell
Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy
Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation
Editor, Small Wars Journal
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161


If you do not read anything else in the 2017 National Security Strategy read this on page 14:

"A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation."
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