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Quotes of the Day:
“No man on earth is truly free, all are slaves of money or necessity. Public opinion, or fear of prosecution forces each one, against his conscience, to conform.”
- Euripides.
“If you are ever tempted to look for outside approval, realize that you have compromised your integrity. If you need a witness, be your own.”
- Epictetus
"The great corrupter of public man is the ego. Looking at the mirror distracts one's attention from the problem."
- Dean Acheson
1. The Promise of Camp David: Trilateral Summit Is a Watershed for Asian Security
2. Yoon, Biden, Kishida plan to approve 'duty to consult' policy in case of crisis
3. ‘Increasing militarisation’ of DPR Korea fuelling rise in human rights violations ,mk,.,k.l./.
4. N. Korean leader bolsters personality cult with use of title 'President': Seoul
5. No detection of suspected bombing attack near Pyongyang: Seoul spy agency
6. U.S. prepared to deter N. Korean aggression, ensure regional stability: Pentagon
7. Yoon arrives for trilateral summit with Biden, Kishida at Camp David
8. Trilateral summit to adopt statements on shared 'principles' and 'spirit'
9. Trilateral summit to adopt statements on shared 'principles' and 'spirit'
10. Will North Korea agree to hold joint military drills with Russia?
11. UN: North Korea is increasing repression as people are reportedly starving in parts of the country
12. Latest North Korean Missile Sparks New Debate Over Possible Russian Role
13. China-Japan-South Korea Relations Under Global Geopolitical Context – Analysis
14. Trilateral Camp David summit and its historical implications
15. At Camp David, Biden looks to cement a fragile truce
16. Hackers From North Korea Stole Over $180M In Crypto Within 6 Months: Report
17. The Trilateral Summit at Camp David: Institutionalizing U.S.-Japan-South Korea Coordination
18. Camp David summit: a trilateral march toward instability?
19. No ‘NEATO’ likely, but Biden hopes to use summit to bind East Asian allies
1. The Promise of Camp David: Trilateral Summit Is a Watershed for Asian Security
Conclusion:
Multilateral arrangements are only as strong as the weakest link. When South Korea and Japan are at daggers’ drawn, American calls for trilateral action will fall flat. Conversely, when leaders are committed to a forward-looking South Korea-Japan partnership, improving bilateral ties empower regional institution building. This moment may not last, making it imperative for the leaders to create a spirit of Camp David. Beginning by declaring the summit an inaugural event, the leaders can advance the scaffolding of a durable, influential new institution centered on these three leading democracies.
The Promise of Camp David: Trilateral Summit Is a Watershed for Asian Security
While threats posed by North Korea remain the central adhesive for concerted action by South Korea, the United States, and Japan, the agenda for trilateral cooperation is increasingly moving beyond defense to build order and promote prosperity.
The National Interest · by Patrick M. Cronin · August 16, 2023
Camp David, the presidential redoubt 60 miles north of the White House, is a venue for making history. Eighty years ago, Franklin Roosevelt and Winston Churchill huddled to coordinate a grand strategy during World War II. Forty-five years ago, Jimmy Carter assembled Egypt’s Anwar Sadat and Israel’s Menachem Begin to reach a new Middle East peace accord. Twenty years ago, George W. Bush welcomed “my friend” Vladimir Putin to probe the intentions of the Russian leader. While not consistently successful, retreats at Camp David are often fateful tête-à-têtes among world leaders.
The Promise of Camp David
The gathering of American, South Korean, and Japanese heads of government in the wooded hills of Maryland’s Catoctin Mountain Park on August 18 is a pivotal moment to shape international relations “across the Indo-Pacific and beyond.”
Camp David promises to launch an annual process for institutionalizing top-level trilateral coordination of salient defense, economic, and diplomatic policies.
Camp David is purpose-built for ushering in a new level of U.S.-South Korea-Japan cooperation. Previous trilateral talks—including three meetings between Presidents Joe Biden and Yoon Suk-yeol and Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in the past fifteen months—have occurred on the margins of NATO, ASEAN East Asia Summit, and G7 multilateral meetings. This time, the trilateral summit is the main event.
The summit comes at a moment of considerable gravity. The three leaders converge amid fraught relations with China and Russia and heightened global concerns about nuclear deterrence, emerging technology, and climate change.
The three governments have been creating momentum for success. The Camp David gathering builds on numerous high-level trilateral meetings among foreign, defense, security, and economic policymakers.
Although it is easy to preemptively declare the Camp David summit a watershed in Asian security, the complexity of the agenda mirrors our disruptive era.
Building off the North Korea Threat
At least the foundation for trilateral cooperation is unbending. North Korea’s threats remain the glue for trilateral action. Hard-wiring and exercising defenses to detect, deter, and defeat missile, undersea, drone, and other offensive military systems is essential for bolstering regional defense. Likewise, tightening economic penalties and sanctions enforcement on Pyongyang for defying United Nations Security Council resolutions is crucial for shoring up the rules-based international order.
Four related critical defense challenges are sure to be discussed at Camp David. Two are relatively simple, and two require great delicacy because they infringe on core national sensitivities.
The first is to name and shame North Korea for trying to become the arsenal of dictators.
The three leaders should pledge to monitor and expose North Korea for exporting arms to help Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine, and they should also vow to impose costs on all those conspiring to prosecute an offensive war.
The second challenge is to do more to buttress deterrence by communicating to all potential aggressors that Washington, Seoul, and Tokyo will not remain idle in the face of unilateral changes to the status quo through force or coercion. Preventing regional flashpoints from spilling over into broader conflict is a natural part of keeping peace and stability, whether on the Korean peninsula, across the Taiwan Strait, or in the South China Sea.
For example, take the matter of peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait. Beijing deliberately drives up tensions by threatening to change the status quo through the threat or use of force. But Presidents Biden and Yoon and Prime Minister Kishida are squarely behind maintaining the status quo and squarely opposed to unilateral changes through military arms. Here they can take inspiration from former Japanese prime minister Taro Aso’s recent speech in Taipei, recounting how British prime minister Margaret Thatcher’s “small mistake” of not sending a clear signal to Argentina contributed to the outbreak of the Falklands War in 1982.
Nuclear deterrence and cyber security are also worthy of making the summit agenda. How to join up national defense modernization plans and bilateral extended deterrence talks to reassure allies and dissuade potential adversaries from using force constitutes a third problem that needs further exploration in the solitude of Camp David. A trilateral extended deterrence conversation is vital, regardless of whether it is granted a formal name or codified with a new acronym.
Finally, the unrelenting efforts of potential adversaries to hack into classified national security networks demand concerted trilateral cooperation. Critical-system sabotage risks constitute a grave threat to regional and global peace. Yet recent revelations about hacking into U.S. networks in Guam or Japanese security systems underscore the urgency of this challenge. Failing to demonstrate an ability to protect critical infrastructure can catalyze miscalculation. Trilateral coordination to safeguard essential infrastructure can occur while Japan and South Korea work through other mechanisms, such as NATO’s partnership program.
Leveraging Security Cooperation for Rule-Setting and Order-Building
Even with this ambitious agenda for trilateral security collaboration, the true potential for cooperation among the three countries lies in fashioning a free, open, and forward-looking Indo-Pacific order.
Chinese information warriors will seize on issues such as Taiwan and portray the trilateral summit as a “small clique” governed by a “Cold War mindset” attempting to thwart China’s peaceful rise and regional community-building. But Chinese officials are mistaken if they think trilateral cooperation is all about them. They are also obscuring the ultimately positive agenda driving the three democracies forward.
The Washington-Seoul-Tokyo collaboration aims to demonstrate a shared commitment to a peaceful regional and global rules-based community. Defense is part of the agenda, but that element of cooperation centers on managing North Korea’s missile, undersea, drone, and other military threats. All three countries have their interests, but increasingly they see benefits in forging a united front to shape the order of the system.
Shared values and interests can drive the three countries to achieve new ambitions for setting new standards for trade and development, preserving supply chain resilience and protecting critical infrastructure, harnessing technology for combating climate change, and averting the unintended consequences of emerging technologies.
Multilateral arrangements are only as strong as the weakest link. When South Korea and Japan are at daggers’ drawn, American calls for trilateral action will fall flat. Conversely, when leaders are committed to a forward-looking South Korea-Japan partnership, improving bilateral ties empower regional institution building. This moment may not last, making it imperative for the leaders to create a spirit of Camp David. Beginning by declaring the summit an inaugural event, the leaders can advance the scaffolding of a durable, influential new institution centered on these three leading democracies.
Dr. Patrick M. Cronin is Asia-Pacific Security Chair at the Hudson Institute and Scholar in Residence at Carnegie Mellon University.
Image: Shutterstock.
The National Interest · by Patrick M. Cronin · August 16, 2023
2. Yoon, Biden, Kishida plan to approve 'duty to consult' policy in case of crisis
Duty to consult among JAROKUS.
Excerpts:
The envisioned commitment to consult fueled speculation that the three countries are on course to elevate their cooperation closer to a level approximating an alliance, but it remains to be seen whether the word, "duty," will make it into the finalized document, observers said.
"All three leaders will take a pledge (on) what we would call a duty to consult in the event of a crisis or a set of circumstances that affects the security of any one of our countries," the official said in a telephonic press briefing Thursday.
Yoon, Biden and Kishida will also agree that their countries will hold a trilateral summit "on an annual basis" and take steps to build a "state-of-the-art" three-way hotline, through which "we can engage in moments of crisis and uncertainty," the official said.
Yoon, Biden, Kishida plan to approve 'duty to consult' policy in case of crisis | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Duk-Kun Byun · August 18, 2023
By Byun Duk-kun
WASHINGTON, Aug. 18 (Yonhap) -- President Yoon Suk Yeol, U.S. President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida plan to adopt a trilateral summit document stipulating a "duty to consult" with one another in the event of a crisis, a senior U.S. official has said.
The leaders are poised to issue the document during a landmark three-way summit at the Camp David presidential retreat in Maryland on Friday, the official said, in a sign of deepening solidarity amid North Korea's military threats, China's assertiveness and Russia's war in Ukraine.
The envisioned commitment to consult fueled speculation that the three countries are on course to elevate their cooperation closer to a level approximating an alliance, but it remains to be seen whether the word, "duty," will make it into the finalized document, observers said.
"All three leaders will take a pledge (on) what we would call a duty to consult in the event of a crisis or a set of circumstances that affects the security of any one of our countries," the official said in a telephonic press briefing Thursday.
Yoon, Biden and Kishida will also agree that their countries will hold a trilateral summit "on an annual basis" and take steps to build a "state-of-the-art" three-way hotline, through which "we can engage in moments of crisis and uncertainty," the official said.
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol (R) speaks with U.S. President Joe Biden (L) and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida ahead of their three-way talks in Hiroshima, Japan, in this May 21, 2023, file photo. (Pool photo) (Yonhap)
Another U.S. administration official said the consultation commitment will be contained in a stand-alone statement, noting it will take "our security and broader coordination to the next level in a really fundamental way."
"What it very much is is a commitment amongst our three countries that if there is a regional contingency or a threat, we will immediately and swiftly consult with one another," the official said. "We will discuss ways to share information to align our messaging and to take policy actions in tandem with one another."
The official described the consultation commitment as part of efforts to build a "common security" platform, dismissing the notion that it could amount to a formal alliance commitment.
"What we are building here is a common security framework that increasingly gives our leaders and our top national security officials the incentive to work closely together whenever one of us faces a challenge and to make sure that not only the challenging picture but the policy options that follow are taken together," the official said.
The official added that the commitment "does not infringe upon any one of our country's rights to defend itself under international law, nor does it change or impinge in any way on the existing bilateral treaty commitments between South Korea and the U.S., and between the U.S. and Japan."
New headway in the U.S.' push for trilateral cooperation has unnerved China. In a recent op-ed piece, the Global Times, China's nationalist outlet, criticized a "U.S. desire to build a mini-NATO-style trilateral military alliance in Northeast Asia."
But a U.S. administration official said the Camp David summit is not about taking steps to isolate China.
"I would suggest that what you're seeing in Japan, South Korea and the U.S. is largely a response to security steps and measures that we believe are antithetical to our interests," the official said. "Three countries are committed to an effective, practical diplomacy with China."
U.S. officials indicated the trilateral summit will produce at least three separate documents -- a statement on the duty to consult, one on the principles of three-way engagement and an overarching document of purpose.
The document on the basic principles of engagement will "demonstrate that it is not a single summit among these three leaders but that they are building something that they intend to pass on to subsequent administrations," the second administration official said, adding the trilateral summit will mark the "beginning of a new chapter in our partnership."
"I think our goal will be to lock in trilateral engagement that will make it difficult to backtrack from the commitments that each of the three will make at Camp David, and again, I think it's nothing short of historic," an official said.
Asked if the three-way hotline and duty to consult will be activated in the event of a potential Chinese attack on Taiwan, one administration official refused to give a direct answer.
"I think that the discussions that we've undertaken between the three countries involve the security and political situations in the broader Indo-Pacific," the official said. "There will be language tomorrow in our joint statement that reaffirms and underscores our commitment to the maintenance of peace and stability across the (Taiwan) strait."
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol waves as he boards the presidential airplane at Seoul Air Base in Seongnam, south of Seoul, on Aug. 17, 2023, before his departure for the United States to attend a trilateral summit the next day with U.S. President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. (Yonhap)
On China's assertiveness in the South China Sea, a White House official said that there will be "some robust language" in a statement on the three sides' "common" position based on "international law" and "opposition to coercion and militarization."
"I don't think I've ever been involved in a series of preparations in which the alignment between the three governments was so clear and straightforward," the official said. "I believe this alignment and this shared sense of both threat perception, opportunities and duty will be on full display."
One of the officials also underscored the significance of the venue for the trilateral summit.
"Camp David was chosen quite carefully. I think there's a recognition that that venue is reserved for only the most important and significant such meetings," the official said.
The White House said earlier that Yoon and Kishida will be the first foreign leaders to be invited to Camp David under the Biden administration, as well as since 2015.
Friday's event will begin with the arrival of Yoon and Kishida at the U.S. presidential retreat on separate U.S. Marine helicopters provided by the White House.
Biden will hold bilateral talks with Yoon and Kishida before holding a three-way summit and a joint conference with his South Korean and Japanese counterparts, according to the officials.
bdk@yna.co.kr
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en.yna.co.kr · by Duk-Kun Byun · August 18, 2023
3. ‘Increasing militarisation’ of DPR Korea fuelling rise in human rights violations
Does this set the stage for a JAPROKUS human rights upfront approach as a major pillar of the strategy toward north Korea (along with a sophisticated information campaign that seeks the pursuit of a free and unified Korea)?
The Korean people in the north suffer due to Kim's decision to prioritize nuclear weapons and missile development over the welfare of the people. This must be recognized and called out as part of the information strategy.
$560 million on missile tests in 2022 while there was an unfilled requirement for $417 million in food aid.
https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/2022/12/12/national/northKorea/Korea-North-Korea-food-insecurity/20221212190148616.html?utm
‘Increasing militarisation’ of DPR Korea fuelling rise in human rights violations
news.un.org · August 17, 2023
Briefing the UN Security Council, Volker Türk ran through a long list of rights abuses, saying that many “stem directly from, or support, the increasing militarisation of the DPRK."
His argument was reinforced by the UN independent human rights expert Elizabeth Salmón who told ambassadors that leaders of the DPRK – more commonly known as North Korea – have repeatedly demanded citizens “tighten their belts” to the point of starvation in some cases, “so that the available resources could be used to fund the nuclear and missile programmes.”
Weapons over rights
High Commissioner Türk noted how the widespread use of forced labour, including in political prison camps, by children forced to collect harvests and the confiscation of overseas workers’ wages, all support Pyongyang’s imperative to “build weapons.”
The Council met just over a month ago to discuss the “alarming and unsustainable” situation across the Peninsula, which is also impacting nearby countries such as Japan, following what was DPRK’s fourth intercontinental ballistic missile launch of the year.
The UN rights chief began his briefing noting the dire state of human rights there, which underpin not only security, but humanitarian action and development.
Rarely has DPRK been more “painfully closed” to the outside world than it is today, triggered by border closures due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
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Information gathered by his office, OHCHR, “including through interviews and from public information issued by the Government itself, indicates increasing repression of the rights to freedom of expression, privacy and movement; the persistence of widespread forced labour practices; and a worsening situation for economic and social rights due to the closure of markets and other forms of income generation.”
Since the shutdown, “only a handful” have managed to leave the North, he said.
Help ‘rebuffed’
Although DPRK has said it is open to international cooperation to help end a food supply and nutrition crisis, offers of humanitarian support “have been largely rebuffed” said Mr. Türk.
The UN Country Team remains barred amid the border closures, along with almost all other foreign nationals. He said the return of the Country Team and new partnership framework, “would be crucial to advancing coordinated work to address the suffering of the people”.
He called for accountability for victims of rights abuses, both via the International Criminal Court and via “truth-telling, the recovery of remains and reparations programmes.
Thousands of North Koreans remain at risk of being repatriated involuntarily, he said, where they may face torture and arbitrary detention. He urged all States not to send citizens home, “and to provide them with the required protections and humanitarian support.”
“Sustainable peace can only be built by advancing human rights, and its corollaries: reconciliation, inclusion and justice”, he concluded.
UN Photo/Eskinder Debebe
Crucial role of women for peace
The UN Special Rapporteur on human rights in DPRK, Ms. Salmón, highlighted the precarious situation of women and girls there, beginning with vulnerability to starvation, disease, and lack of available healthcare.
“Women are detained in inhuman conditions and are subjected to torture and ill-treatment, forced labour and gender-based violence by State officials”, she told ambassadors in the Council.
She said they needed to consider peacemaking “beyond the absence of violence or fear of violence.”
“The preparation for any possible peacemaking process needs to include women as decisionmakers and this process needs to start now.”
She said “clear benchmarks” on human rights were an essential element of any negotiations.
“I call upon the Security Council to place the protection of human rights at the centre of a reinvigorated peace and security agenda.”
news.un.org · August 17, 2023
4. N. Korean leader bolsters personality cult with use of title 'President': Seoul
The mafia like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime.
(LEAD) N. Korean leader bolsters personality cult with use of title 'President': Seoul | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Soo-yeon · August 17, 2023
(ATTN: UPDATES with more details throughout, photo; ADDS byline)
By Kim Soo-yeon
SEOUL, Aug. 17 (Yonhap) -- North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has reduced his public activity in recent years but has accelerated his personality cult by using the title reserved for the country's late founder, South Korea's unification ministry said Thursday.
Kim was referred to with the title "President" on 26 occasions in state media reports in the first seven months of this year, up from 23 in 2022, according to data from the ministry. The figure was also up from 16 occasions in 2021 and four in 2020.
"Great President" is a title used to idolize the country's late founder, Kim Il-sung, who is also known as the incumbent leader's role model.
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un (C), alongside Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu (L) and Chinese Communist Party politburo member Li Hongzhong (R), observes a military parade at Kim Il-sung Square in Pyongyang on July 27, 2023, to mark the 70th anniversary of the signing of the armistice that halted the 1950-53 Korean War, in this photo released the next day by the North's official Korean Central News Agency. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)
The secretive regime has bolstered the use of the title "President" for Kim Jong-un as a way to cement the dictatorship, the ministry said. He was often called "Great President" on a par with the title of his late grandfather Kim Il-sung.
In state media, the North's leader was also spotted shedding tears on 10 occasions, such as at a military parade held in late July.
"This is the epitome of a tyrant's politics appealing to people's emotions," a ministry official told reporters on condition of anonymity.
The North's leader has conducted public activities on 57 occasions so far this year. In the first half of this year, the number of his public inspections reached 32, fewer than the average of 62 in the past.
Kim has carried out military-related inspections on 30 occasions so far this year, while the number of his economy-related activities came to four.
Since assuming power in 2011, Kim's public activity has been largely on the decline after peaking at 214 in 2013. The number of his "field guidance" excursions has fallen below 100 since 2017.
This image, provided by the Ministry of Unification, shows a trend of North Korea using the title of "President" for its leader Kim Jong-un in recent years. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)
Meanwhile, North Korea's serious food situation seems to be somewhat alleviating, aided by supplies of summer farm produce, such as potatoes and corn, the ministry said.
The North's food situation appears to have deteriorated amid deepening economic hardships caused by its COVID-19 border closure and disruptions in a state-controlled food supply system, with deaths from starvation occurring in some regions.
"The North's crop production may not be bad for this year, given that the country has not suffered severe damage from heavy rains," the ministry official said.
Still, ordinary North Koreans appear to be shouldering heavy costs to purchase food as food prices spiked early this year.
The price of flour soared 445 percent in the first quarter, compared with the same period of 2019, one year before the country imposed COVID-19 restrictions.
Under the premise that four-member households in the North earn a monthly average of 200,000 won (US$149) and buy the same list of foodstuff as that purchased before the border closure, Engel's coefficient probably came to 94 percent in the cited period, up from 58 percent four years earlier, the ministry estimated.
Engel's coefficient measures the percentage of a household's expenditure on food to its total spending. The ministry said the estimated figure indicates the North's households' rising burdens of food purchases.
The ministry also voiced skepticism about a view that North Korea may drop the strategy of unification by dealing with inter-Korean ties as a state-to-state relationship.
In state media, North Korea recently referred to South Korea by using the South's full name, the Republic of Korea (ROK). This spawned speculations that the North may not see inter-Korean relations as a "special" relationship tentatively formed in the process of seeking reunification.
"The North seems to view that there is nothing to gain from inter-Korean relations and regard such ties as subordinate to the Pyongyang-Washington relations," the official said, adding that the North's ROK reference is an expression of its "mockery" against the South.
North Koreans farm in North Hwanghae Province, in this file photo taken May 13, 2022, from the Odusan Unification Tower in the South Korean border city of Paju, 28 kilometers north of Seoul. (Yonhap)
sooyeon@yna.co.kr
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en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Soo-yeon · August 17, 2023
5. No detection of suspected bombing attack near Pyongyang: Seoul spy agency
Is there resistance in north Korea? Potential for internal instability? Can the regime suppress crime or will it lead to internal instability?
Excerpts:
"The outbreak of a bombing attack has not been identified, but (we) are tracking related situations," the National Intelligence Service (NIS) said in response to the report.
In a closed-door briefing to the parliamentary intelligence committee in May, the NIS said the number of violent crimes had tripled in North Korea from a year earlier.
"Large-scale and organized" crimes were also committed, including the throwing of homemade bombs in attempts to extort goods, it added.
With deaths from starvation being reported, North Korea has been suffering from a severe food crisis amid deepening economic hardships and disruptions of the state-controlled food supply system.
No detection of suspected bombing attack near Pyongyang: Seoul spy agency | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Soo-yeon · August 18, 2023
SEOUL, Aug. 18 (Yonhap) -- South Korea's spy agency said Friday it has not detected the occurrence of a suspected terrorist bombing attack near Pyongyang but is monitoring related situations.
Citing a source familiar with North Korea's situation, the Donga Ilbo, a local newspaper, reported that there were signs of a suspected terrorist attack involving an explosive in the vicinity of the North's capital one or two months earlier.
"The outbreak of a bombing attack has not been identified, but (we) are tracking related situations," the National Intelligence Service (NIS) said in response to the report.
In a closed-door briefing to the parliamentary intelligence committee in May, the NIS said the number of violent crimes had tripled in North Korea from a year earlier.
"Large-scale and organized" crimes were also committed, including the throwing of homemade bombs in attempts to extort goods, it added.
With deaths from starvation being reported, North Korea has been suffering from a severe food crisis amid deepening economic hardships and disruptions of the state-controlled food supply system.
This photo, captured from footage of North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency on Aug. 14, 2023, shows flooded fields in Anbyon County in the eastern Kangwon Province after Typhoon Khanun swept through the Korean Peninsula. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)
sooyeon@yna.co.kr
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en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Soo-yeon · August 18, 2023
6. U.S. prepared to deter N. Korean aggression, ensure regional stability: Pentagon
We can deter war and the use of WMD but we cannot deter "provocations" such as weapon tests and the like.
We have successfully deterred a resumption of hostilities for 7 decades. We should keep that in mind.
U.S. prepared to deter N. Korean aggression, ensure regional stability: Pentagon | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Duk-Kun Byun · August 18, 2023
By Byun Duk-kun
WASHINGTON, Aug. 17 (Yonhap) -- The United States will continue to work with its allies to deter any potential aggression by North Korea, a Pentagon spokesperson said Thursday, following reports that Pyongyang may be preparing to make various provocations, including a long-range missile test.
South Korea's spy agency, the National Intelligence Service, earlier noted that the North may test launch an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) to protest against a trilateral summit between the leaders of South Korea, Japan and the United States, set to be held here in Washington on Friday.
"I am not going to comment on any potential intelligence in terms of what we think of North Korea may or may not be doing," the Pentagon spokesperson, Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder, told a daily press briefing.
"We have been very clear that we are going to maintain robust communication with our Republic of Korea and Japanese allies, as well as those other countries and partners and allies in the region, to make sure that we can deter potential aggression," he added, referring to South Korea by its official name.
Department of Defense Press Secretary Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder is seen answering questions during a daily press briefing at the Pentagon in Washington on Aug. 17, 2023 in this captured image. (Yonhap)
Pyongyang has conducted a dozen ICBM tests since the start of last year, with its latest ICBM launch taking place on July 12.
A new ICBM test, if taken, will also come amid an annual South Korea-U.S joint military exercise which will be held from Monday through Aug. 31.
The defense department spokesperson emphasized that the joint military drills are defensive in nature.
"The exercises that we are doing ... those are defensive in nature, and they are meant to, again, enable our commitments, our alliance commitments and ensure that we can work together," he told the press briefing.
On a similar note, the Pentagon spokesperson noted that the upcoming trilateral summit is not aimed at countering any specific country, including China.
"It's not directed at any one particular nation," he said when asked about the trilateral summit, set to be held at Camp David.
"If there are nations that choose to try to use coercion and try to create instability or violate sovereign rights, we want to work together with nations to try to prevent that kind of activity," added Ryder.
The spokesperson also reaffirmed U.S. commitment to engaging with North Korea in dialogue.
"The U.S. government has in many occasions highlighted the fact that we are willing to engage diplomatically with North Korea without any preconditions," he said, adding the North has "chosen not to do that" to date.
When asked about Pvt. Travis King, a U.S. Army service member who crossed the inter-Korean border into North Korea last month, the Pentagon spokesperson answered he had no new updates to provide, only saying, "Our priority remains Private King's well-being and efforts to get him home."
bdk@yna.co.kr
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en.yna.co.kr · by Duk-Kun Byun · August 18, 2023
7. Yoon arrives for trilateral summit with Biden, Kishida at Camp David
I think I recognize at least one person in that photo welcoming President Yoon.
Friday
August 18, 2023
dictionary + A - A
Published: 18 Aug. 2023, 10:53
Updated: 18 Aug. 2023, 15:22
Yoon arrives for trilateral summit with Biden, Kishida at Camp David
https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/news/2023-08-18/national/diplomacy/President-Yoon-arrives-for-the-trilateral-summit-at-Camp-David/1849733
President Yoon Suk Yeol is welcomed at Joint Base Andres in Maryland on Thursday. [YONHAP]
U.S. President Joe Biden offered condolences to President Yoon Suk Yeol, who arrived in Washington on Thursday after Yoon's father, Yoon Ki-joong, died on Tuesday.
According to the presidential office, Biden and first lady Jill Biden conveyed their sympathies for Yoon's loss in a card with a bouquet, expressing their hope Yoon's father will rest in peace.
The funeral for Yoon Ki-joong, Yonsei University professor emeritus, was held on Thursday, two days after he died, just hours before Yoon Suk Yeol departed for the United States.
Yoon traveled to Washington to attend the first exclusive trilateral summit among Korea, the U.S. and Japan, scheduled to take place at Camp David on Friday.
During the summit, Yoon, along with host Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, is set to discuss strengthening cooperation among the three countries in response to escalating geopolitical threats, particularly North Korea.
Before departing for Washington, the presidential office announced that the three countries are expected to adopt at least two documents, the Camp David Principles and the Camp David Spirit.
The former will provide guidelines for trilateral cooperation, while the latter will outline their vision and implementation plans for the summit.
These documents will include concrete measures such as establishing a new consultative body and outlining cooperation on extended deterrence, joint military exercises and economic security.
On Thursday, a South Korean intelligence agency issued a warning about a potential intercontinental ballistic missile launch by North Korea in protest of the summit.
Yoon's Air Force One landed at Joint Base Andrews at 6:55 p.m. on Thursday. He is scheduled to return to Korea on Friday and arrive around late Saturday night.
A bouquet from U.S. President Joe Biden to President Yoon that contained a card, which offered condolences on the recent passing of Yoon's father, Yoon Ki-jung, a professor emeritus at Yonsei University. [PRESIDENTIAL OFFICE]
BY LEE HO-JEONG [lee.hojeong@joongang.co.kr]
8. Trilateral summit to adopt statements on shared 'principles' and 'spirit'
"Camp David Principles" and "Camp David Spirit." Good titles.
I hope the Camp David Principles leads to JAROKUS and the Camp David Spirit includes a statement on the trilateral commitment to a free and unified Korea.
Excerpts:
During the summit, the three countries are set to adopt at least two documents, the "Camp David Principles," with guidelines for trilateral cooperation, as well as the "Camp David Spirit," which contains their vision and implementation plans, Kim Tae-hyo, Korea's principal deputy national security adviser, said in a press briefing in Seoul Thursday.
...
Yoon and Kishida will be the first foreign leaders to visit Camp David since 2015. The three countries last held a brief trilateral meeting on the sidelines of the Group of 7 summit in Hiroshima, where Biden extended the invitation to a separate standalone summit in the United States.
Kurt Campbell, the NSC coordinator for Indo-Pacific affairs, highlighted the significance of the location of the summit, which he said holds "deep symbolism" and signals "the importance that we attach to this momentous moment."
Thursday
August 17, 2023
dictionary + A - A
Published: 17 Aug. 2023, 18:08
Updated: 17 Aug. 2023, 18:45
Trilateral summit to adopt statements on shared 'principles' and 'spirit'
https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/news/2023-08-17/national/diplomacy/Trilateral-summit-to-adopt-statements-on-shared-principles-and-spirit-/1849125
President Yoon Suk Yeol waves before departing on the presidential jet at Seoul Air Base in Gyeonggi Thursday evening for a four-day trip to the United States for a trilateral summit at Camp David on Friday. [JOINT PRESS CORPS]
The leaders of South Korea, Japan and the United States will adopt two statements highlighting their shared "principles" and "spirit" as they aim to elevate three-way cooperation during their summit at Camp David, a senior presidential official said Thursday.
U.S. President Joe Biden was set to host South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida for a historic standalone trilateral summit at Camp David, the American presidential retreat in Maryland, on Friday.
During the summit, the three countries are set to adopt at least two documents, the "Camp David Principles," with guidelines for trilateral cooperation, as well as the "Camp David Spirit," which contains their vision and implementation plans, Kim Tae-hyo, Korea's principal deputy national security adviser, said in a press briefing in Seoul Thursday.
Kim left open the possibility of the adoption of a third document, which the three countries are still in the process of negotiating.
The three countries have been strengthening security coordination following a recent improvement of bilateral ties between Seoul and Tokyo amid heightening geopolitical tensions with continued nuclear and missile threats from North Korea, backed by its increasingly assertive traditional allies, China and Russia.
Principal Deputy National Security Adviser Kim Tae-hyo gives a press briefing on the upcoming trilateral summit with South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, U.S. President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida at the Yongsan presidential office in central Seoul on Thursday. [JOINT PRESS CORPS]
The Camp David Principles is a document containing sustainable guidelines for future cooperation between the three countries, Kim told reporters at the Yongsan presidential office.
The three leaders will declare their shared principle of "strengthening cooperation for world peace and prosperity with the Indo-Pacific region, including the Korean Peninsula, Asean countries and the Pacific Island nations, and across the globe based on their common values and norms," Kim told reporters at the Yongsan presidential office.
They are expected to express their stance to jointly respond to global issues such as economic norms, advanced technologies, climate change and nonproliferation, he added.
The Camp David Spirit is a joint statement containing the vision and implementation plan for trilateral cooperation, containing the core results of the three-way gathering.
It will highlight concrete measures such as the establishment of a new consultative body and outline cooperation on extended deterrence, joint military exercises and economic security, according to Kim.
"This summit has the significance of institutionalizing and solidifying the trilateral cooperation system," Kim said. "We expect that the security and economic cooperation that has been pursued bilaterally will create synergies at the trilateral level."
He highlighted that Seoul-Washington-Tokyo cooperation will "evolve from regional cooperation on the Korean Peninsula focused on the North Korean threat" to a more comprehensive one aiming to build "freedom, peace and prosperity throughout the Indo-Pacific region." Such cooperation is expected to not only cover security but also the economy, advanced technologies, health, women's rights and people-to-people exchanges.
Yoon, who attended a funeral ceremony for his father earlier that day, departed for a four-day trip to the United States on the presidential jet around 6 p.m. Thursday. He was not accompanied by first lady Kim Keon-hee.
Yoon is set to arrive in Washington Thursday and have a dinner meeting with aides to review preparations for the summit, said Deputy National Security Adviser Kim. He will arrive at Camp David on Friday morning, where he will be greeted by Biden.
The three leaders' trilateral summit will be followed by a joint press conference in the afternoon.
Yoon will also be holding separate bilateral summits with Biden Friday morning and Kishida in the afternoon after a trilateral luncheon.
A presidential official told reporters that the issue of Japan's planned release of treated radioactive water from its defunct Fukushima nuclear power plant was not on the agenda for Yoon's summit with Kishida.
The official also played down China's concerns that the three countries will be forming a mini-NATO alliance, noting that "NATO is a multilateral collective security alliance of more than 30 countries," drawing the line by pointing out that the South Korea-U.S.-Japan "cooperative body" is not a trilateral alliance.
U.S. National Security Council Coordinator for Strategic Communications John Kirby speaks at a press briefing at the Foreign Press Center in Washington Wednesday ahead of a trilateral summit with Korea and Japan. [EPA/YONHAP]
South Korea, Japan and the United States will announce "significant initiatives" through their trilateral summit on Friday meant to take the three-way relationship to "new heights," John Kirby, White House National Security Council (NSC) coordinator for strategic communications, said Wednesday ahead of the summit.
Kirby told a press briefing at the Washington Foreign Press Center that the summit is "really about moving our relationships with each other and amongst each other to a whole new level," including economy, diplomacy and security, rather than a venue to discuss China concerns.
"As our nations make history on Friday at Camp David, we will be just as focused on taking actions to preserve this progress so that we may sustain and hopefully someday further strengthen and improve that trilateral cooperation," Kirby added.
He likewise played down the possibility of "any deliverables or any demonstrable discussion about some sort of NATO alignment" through the summit.
He said the leaders will "focus on the security front going forward to improve military interoperability and integration and coordination," in response to the continued "provocative actions" by North Korea through their missile launches and advancement of their nuclear weapons program.
Yoon and Kishida will be the first foreign leaders to visit Camp David since 2015. The three countries last held a brief trilateral meeting on the sidelines of the Group of 7 summit in Hiroshima, where Biden extended the invitation to a separate standalone summit in the United States.
Kurt Campbell, the NSC coordinator for Indo-Pacific affairs, highlighted the significance of the location of the summit, which he said holds "deep symbolism" and signals "the importance that we attach to this momentous moment."
Campbell in a seminar at the Brookings Institution think tank in Washington Wednesday that the summit will produce a "very ambitious set of initiatives that seek to lock in trilateral engagement both now and in the future."
He noted the three countries' cooperation should be seen as "a marathon, not a sprint" and may become "a defining trilateral relationship for the 21st century."
BY SARAH KIM [kim.sarah@joongang.co.kr]
9. Trilateral summit to adopt statements on shared 'principles' and 'spirit'
"Camp David Principles" and "Camp David Spirit." Good titles. I like them. This gives us (press, policymakers, pundits, and public) a useful shorthand to describe the relationship and actions. As I mentioned at a conference yesterday, one of the important things to come out of the summit will be a useful name that can be used in conversation. A strong name is something that can help sustain the relationship which is one of the worries due to the historical relationship between Korea and Japan. But a "named agreement" can help keep it together. I am cautiously optimistic.
I hope the Camp David Principles leads to JAROKUS and the Camp David Spirit includes a statement on the trilateral commitment to a free and unified Korea.
Excerpts:
During the summit, the three countries are set to adopt at least two documents, the "Camp David Principles," with guidelines for trilateral cooperation, as well as the "Camp David Spirit," which contains their vision and implementation plans, Kim Tae-hyo, Korea's principal deputy national security adviser, said in a press briefing in Seoul Thursday.
...
Yoon and Kishida will be the first foreign leaders to visit Camp David since 2015. The three countries last held a brief trilateral meeting on the sidelines of the Group of 7 summit in Hiroshima, where Biden extended the invitation to a separate standalone summit in the United States.
Kurt Campbell, the NSC coordinator for Indo-Pacific affairs, highlighted the significance of the location of the summit, which he said holds "deep symbolism" and signals "the importance that we attach to this momentous moment."
Thursday
August 17, 2023
dictionary + A - A
Published: 17 Aug. 2023, 18:08
Updated: 17 Aug. 2023, 18:45
Trilateral summit to adopt statements on shared 'principles' and 'spirit'
https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/news/2023-08-17/national/diplomacy/Trilateral-summit-to-adopt-statements-on-shared-principles-and-spirit-/1849125
President Yoon Suk Yeol waves before departing on the presidential jet at Seoul Air Base in Gyeonggi Thursday evening for a four-day trip to the United States for a trilateral summit at Camp David on Friday. [JOINT PRESS CORPS]
The leaders of South Korea, Japan and the United States will adopt two statements highlighting their shared "principles" and "spirit" as they aim to elevate three-way cooperation during their summit at Camp David, a senior presidential official said Thursday.
U.S. President Joe Biden was set to host South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida for a historic standalone trilateral summit at Camp David, the American presidential retreat in Maryland, on Friday.
During the summit, the three countries are set to adopt at least two documents, the "Camp David Principles," with guidelines for trilateral cooperation, as well as the "Camp David Spirit," which contains their vision and implementation plans, Kim Tae-hyo, Korea's principal deputy national security adviser, said in a press briefing in Seoul Thursday.
Kim left open the possibility of the adoption of a third document, which the three countries are still in the process of negotiating.
The three countries have been strengthening security coordination following a recent improvement of bilateral ties between Seoul and Tokyo amid heightening geopolitical tensions with continued nuclear and missile threats from North Korea, backed by its increasingly assertive traditional allies, China and Russia.
Principal Deputy National Security Adviser Kim Tae-hyo gives a press briefing on the upcoming trilateral summit with South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, U.S. President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida at the Yongsan presidential office in central Seoul on Thursday. [JOINT PRESS CORPS]
The Camp David Principles is a document containing sustainable guidelines for future cooperation between the three countries, Kim told reporters at the Yongsan presidential office.
The three leaders will declare their shared principle of "strengthening cooperation for world peace and prosperity with the Indo-Pacific region, including the Korean Peninsula, Asean countries and the Pacific Island nations, and across the globe based on their common values and norms," Kim told reporters at the Yongsan presidential office.
They are expected to express their stance to jointly respond to global issues such as economic norms, advanced technologies, climate change and nonproliferation, he added.
The Camp David Spirit is a joint statement containing the vision and implementation plan for trilateral cooperation, containing the core results of the three-way gathering.
It will highlight concrete measures such as the establishment of a new consultative body and outline cooperation on extended deterrence, joint military exercises and economic security, according to Kim.
"This summit has the significance of institutionalizing and solidifying the trilateral cooperation system," Kim said. "We expect that the security and economic cooperation that has been pursued bilaterally will create synergies at the trilateral level."
He highlighted that Seoul-Washington-Tokyo cooperation will "evolve from regional cooperation on the Korean Peninsula focused on the North Korean threat" to a more comprehensive one aiming to build "freedom, peace and prosperity throughout the Indo-Pacific region." Such cooperation is expected to not only cover security but also the economy, advanced technologies, health, women's rights and people-to-people exchanges.
Yoon, who attended a funeral ceremony for his father earlier that day, departed for a four-day trip to the United States on the presidential jet around 6 p.m. Thursday. He was not accompanied by first lady Kim Keon-hee.
Yoon is set to arrive in Washington Thursday and have a dinner meeting with aides to review preparations for the summit, said Deputy National Security Adviser Kim. He will arrive at Camp David on Friday morning, where he will be greeted by Biden.
The three leaders' trilateral summit will be followed by a joint press conference in the afternoon.
Yoon will also be holding separate bilateral summits with Biden Friday morning and Kishida in the afternoon after a trilateral luncheon.
A presidential official told reporters that the issue of Japan's planned release of treated radioactive water from its defunct Fukushima nuclear power plant was not on the agenda for Yoon's summit with Kishida.
The official also played down China's concerns that the three countries will be forming a mini-NATO alliance, noting that "NATO is a multilateral collective security alliance of more than 30 countries," drawing the line by pointing out that the South Korea-U.S.-Japan "cooperative body" is not a trilateral alliance.
U.S. National Security Council Coordinator for Strategic Communications John Kirby speaks at a press briefing at the Foreign Press Center in Washington Wednesday ahead of a trilateral summit with Korea and Japan. [EPA/YONHAP]
South Korea, Japan and the United States will announce "significant initiatives" through their trilateral summit on Friday meant to take the three-way relationship to "new heights," John Kirby, White House National Security Council (NSC) coordinator for strategic communications, said Wednesday ahead of the summit.
Kirby told a press briefing at the Washington Foreign Press Center that the summit is "really about moving our relationships with each other and amongst each other to a whole new level," including economy, diplomacy and security, rather than a venue to discuss China concerns.
"As our nations make history on Friday at Camp David, we will be just as focused on taking actions to preserve this progress so that we may sustain and hopefully someday further strengthen and improve that trilateral cooperation," Kirby added.
He likewise played down the possibility of "any deliverables or any demonstrable discussion about some sort of NATO alignment" through the summit.
He said the leaders will "focus on the security front going forward to improve military interoperability and integration and coordination," in response to the continued "provocative actions" by North Korea through their missile launches and advancement of their nuclear weapons program.
Yoon and Kishida will be the first foreign leaders to visit Camp David since 2015. The three countries last held a brief trilateral meeting on the sidelines of the Group of 7 summit in Hiroshima, where Biden extended the invitation to a separate standalone summit in the United States.
Kurt Campbell, the NSC coordinator for Indo-Pacific affairs, highlighted the significance of the location of the summit, which he said holds "deep symbolism" and signals "the importance that we attach to this momentous moment."
Campbell in a seminar at the Brookings Institution think tank in Washington Wednesday that the summit will produce a "very ambitious set of initiatives that seek to lock in trilateral engagement both now and in the future."
He noted the three countries' cooperation should be seen as "a marathon, not a sprint" and may become "a defining trilateral relationship for the 21st century."
BY SARAH KIM [kim.sarah@joongang.co.kr]
10. Will North Korea agree to hold joint military drills with Russia?
I would like to see that. We will gain valuable intelligence if they do conduct such exercises.
Will North Korea agree to hold joint military drills with Russia?
The Korea Times · August 18, 2023
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, front right, talks with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, left, during a military parade to mark the 70th anniversary of the armistice that halted fighting in the 1950-53 Korean War, on Kim Il-sung Square in Pyongyang, July 27, in this photo released by the Korean Central News Agency. AP-Yonhap
Moscow proposes Pyongyang to conduct joint military exercise: NIS
By Lee Hyo-jin
As Pyongyang moves to forge closer ties with Moscow, South Korea's spy agency suggested that Russia has proposed North Korea conduct joint military exercises. But analysts were divided on whether Pyongyang ― which has not held a combined military exercise with other nations since the end of the Cold War ― will accept the proposal.
South Korea's National Intelligence Service (NIS) said, Thursday, that Moscow proposed Pyongyang conduct joint military drills and the related talks supposedly took place during Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu's visit to Pyongyang last month when he met with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.
"Intelligence reports show that Russia recently proposed conducting joint military exercises with North Korea along with trade in artillery shells and missiles. North Korea is speculated to have made requests to Russia on repairing aging military equipment and technology transfers," Rep. Yoo Sang-bum of the People Power Party, told reporters following a closed-door meeting with NIS officials.
However, analysts were split over whether North Korea will accept Russia's proposal.
Park Won-gon, a professor of North Korean studies at Ewha Womans University, thought it unlikely Pyongyang would accept the request, despite growing signs of military cooperation between the two nations.
"The reclusive regime has never conducted joint military exercise with other nations since the end of the Korean War," Park said. "A military exercise involving other countries would seriously undermine North Korea's decades-long principle of developing independent defense capabilities."
Where and how the combined military training would be conducted is another issue making the scenario unlikely, he said.
"Joint military training between regional partners is usually conducted in the air or in the ocean, but the North Korean military is mainly focused on ground forces," Park said.
North Korea fires a Hwasong-18 solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), July 12, in this photo released by the North's official Korean Central News Agency. Yonhap
On the other hand, Cho Han-bum, a senior researcher at the state-run Korean Institute for Unification, viewed that there is some possibility of Pyongyang accepting Moscow's proposal on joint drills so as to demonstrate strengthened military cooperation between the two nations.
"Traditionally, China used to be North Korea's biggest ally, but in recent months, the North has been taking big steps to more closely align with Russia," Cho said. "I wouldn't rule out the possibility of a joint exercise as the two allies are apparently seeking to open a 'new normal' in their military cooperation."
Cho thought that the neighboring countries will continue to forge closer ties as Moscow is becoming more desperate for munitions in its war in Ukraine.
"North Korea is the only country it can turn to for additional supply as China is unlikely to provide weapons to Russia," he said.
For North Korea, an increasingly isolated Russia means a good trading partner and political ally to confront the South Korea-U.S.-Japan trilateral alliance.
South Korea's spy agency is also closely monitoring whether Russia is transferring any nuclear and missile technology to North Korea.
Theodore Postol, a professor emeritus at MIT, suggested that North Korea's successful launch of a solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) is likely the result of technical cooperation sourced to Russia.
"The reported physical dimensions and flight trajectory data of the Hwasong-18 is nearly identical to that of the Russian Topol-M ICBM," he wrote in a report published on Beyond Parallel, a project of the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) think tank.
"The sudden appearance of these advanced capabilities is difficult to explain without cooperation from the Russian government and its scientists," Postol said.
However, Cho of the Korean Institute of Unification said that it is too early to conclude whether Russia has actually been transferring missile and nuclear-related technologies to North Korea.
"The sharing of such sensitive information does not occur even between allied nations with 'blood ties,' he said. "It is possible that the North just copied some of Russia's ICBM technologies."
The Korea Times · August 18, 2023
11. UN: North Korea is increasing repression as people are reportedly starving in parts of the country
This and the other articles on the UN meeting yesterday really provide some indications and warning for potential internal instability that really bear watching.
Excerpts:
As examples of the increasing repression of human rights, he said, anyone found viewing “reactionary ideology and culture” — which means information from abroad, especially from South Korea — may now face five to 15 years in prison. And those who distribute such material face life imprisonment or even the death penalty, he said.
On the economic front, Türk said, the government has largely shut down markets and other private means of generating income and increasingly criminalized such activity.
“This sharply constrains people’s ability to provide for themselves and their families,” he said. “Given the limits of state-run economic institutions, many people appear to be facing extreme hunger as well as acute shortages of medication.”
Türk said many human rights violations stem directly from, or support, the militarization of the country.
“For example, the widespread use of forced labor — including labor in political prison camps, forced use of school children to collect harvests, the requirement for families to undertake labor and provide a quota of goods to the government, and confiscation of wages from overseas workers — all support the military apparatus of the state and its ability to build weapons,” the U.N. high commissioner for human rights said.
UN: North Korea is increasing repression as people are reportedly starving in parts of the country
AP · August 17, 2023
Share
UNITED NATIONS (AP) — North Korea is increasing its repression of human rights and people are becoming more desperate and reportedly starving in parts of the country as the economic situation worsens, the U.N. rights chief said Thursday.
Volker Türk told the first open meeting of the U.N. Security Council since 2017 on North Korean human rights that in the past its people have endured periods of severe economic difficulty and repression, but “currently they appear to be suffering both.”
“According to our information, people are becoming increasingly desperate as informal markets and other coping mechanisms are dismantled, while their fear of state surveillance, arrest, interrogation and detention has increased,” he said.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un closed the borders of his northeast Asian nation to contain COVID-19. But as the pandemic has waned, Türk said the government’s restrictions have grown even more extensive, with guards authorized to shoot any unauthorized person approaching the border and with almost all foreigners, including U.N. staff, still barred from the country.
As examples of the increasing repression of human rights, he said, anyone found viewing “reactionary ideology and culture” — which means information from abroad, especially from South Korea — may now face five to 15 years in prison. And those who distribute such material face life imprisonment or even the death penalty, he said.
On the economic front, Türk said, the government has largely shut down markets and other private means of generating income and increasingly criminalized such activity.
“This sharply constrains people’s ability to provide for themselves and their families,” he said. “Given the limits of state-run economic institutions, many people appear to be facing extreme hunger as well as acute shortages of medication.”
Türk said many human rights violations stem directly from, or support, the militarization of the country.
“For example, the widespread use of forced labor — including labor in political prison camps, forced use of school children to collect harvests, the requirement for families to undertake labor and provide a quota of goods to the government, and confiscation of wages from overseas workers — all support the military apparatus of the state and its ability to build weapons,” the U.N. high commissioner for human rights said.
Elizabeth Salmón, the U.N. special investigator on human rights in North Korea, echoed Türk: “Some people are starving. Others have died due to a combination of malnutrition, diseases and lack of access to health care.”
The United States and North Korea, which fought during the 1950-53 Korean War, are still technically at war since that conflict ended in a truce, not a peace treaty. Salmón said the frozen conflict is being used to justify the continued militarization.
North Korea’s “Military First” policy reduces resources for the people, Salmón said, and the country’s leaders demand that they tighten their belts so the money can be used for the nuclear and missile programs.
The Security Council took no action, but afterward U.S. Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield, who chaired the meeting, read a statement on behalf of 52 countries while flanked by many of their ambassadors.
The statement said the North Korean government commits “acts of cruelty and repression” at home and abroad which are “inextricably linked with the DPRK’s weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missile advancements in violation of Security Council resolutions.” The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea is the official name.
The countries called on all 193 U.N. member nations to raise awareness of the links between the human rights situation in North Korea and international peace and security, “and to hold the DPRK government accountable.”
North Korea on Tuesday denounced U.S. plans for the council meeting as “despicable,” saying it was only aimed at achieving Washington’s geopolitical ambitions.
Vice Foreign Minister Kim Son Gyong called the United States a “declining” power and said if the council dealt with any country’s human rights, the U.S. should be the first “as it is the anti-people empire of evils, totally depraved due to all sorts of social evils.”
China and Russia, both allies of North Korea, opposed the meeting, saying its human rights situation doesn’t pose a threat to international peace and security.
China’s deputy U.N. ambassador Geng Shuang said pushing the council to consider human rights at a time when confrontation has intensified on the Korean Peninsula will escalate the situation.
“It is irresponsible, unconstructive and an abuse of the council’s power,” he said. He urged the council instead to take “practical actions to respond to reasonable concerns of the DPRK” and create conditions for a resumption of talks.
Russia’s deputy U.N. ambassador Dmitry Polyansky called the meeting “propaganda” and “a cynical and hypocritical attempt by the U.S. and its allies to advance their own political agenda to step up pressure on Pyongyang.”
He dismissed Western attempts to link North Korea’s human rights situation to peace and security as “absolutely artificial.”
But Thomas-Greenfield said Pyongyang’s “war machine,” which is “powered by repression and cruelty,” is undeniably a matter of international peace and security. She said that is why the U.S., Japan and Albania requested Thursday’s long-overdue meeting.
AP · August 17, 2023
12. Latest North Korean Missile Sparks New Debate Over Possible Russian Role
I defer to the missile experts for commentary. Did the Russians assist? Does the regime need Russian help?
Latest North Korean Missile Sparks New Debate Over Possible Russian Role
U.S. News & World Report3 min
August 18, 2023
View Original
By Josh Smith
SEOUL (Reuters) - North Korea's latest Hwasong-18 intercontinental ballistic missile - its first ICBM to use solid rocket fuel - has ignited new debate over a possible Russian role in the nuclear-armed state's dramatic missile development.
In a report published on Thursday by the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, Theodore Postol, professor emeritus at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, argued that the Hwasong-18 ICBM is likely the result of technical cooperation sourced to Russia.
The Hwasong-18 has been tested twice, including on July 12 in what was the longest flight time ever for a North Korean missile test.
It is the North's first ICBM to use solid propellants, which can enable faster and easier deployment of missiles during war. The missile was first flown in April.
"The sudden appearance of these advanced capabilities is difficult to explain without cooperation from the Russian government and its scientists," Postol wrote, saying visual similarities suggest Russian may have decided to transfer an "advanced 50-ton solid propellant ICBM, the Topol-M, also known as the SS-27", to North Korea.
Russia and North Korea have recently called for closer military ties but North Korea has denied having any "arms dealings" with Russia.
Russia's foreign ministry did not immediately respond to the new report.
In response to recent allegations from a UN Panel of Experts that entities in Russia were procuring items for North Korea's missile programme, Russia denied any knowledge or information on transactions that would breach sanctions on North Korea.
Other analysts questioned Postol's report.
Researchers at California's James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS) noted in a draft report, shared with Reuters, factual inaccuracies, including mistaking the Russian Topol-M and Yars ICBMs, and misidentifying a spent Hwasong-18 rocket stage as a “decoy canister” designed to defeat anti-missile systems.
Postol did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
The Hwasong-18 clearly takes some design inspiration from Russian missiles, in this case Topol-M and Yars, just as many other North Korean missiles do, the CNS researchers said.
"We do not rule out the possibility that Russian entities may have assisted North Korea in its development of this system," the CNS researchers said in their report.
However, a close examination of images, videos and the performance of the missile shows clear differences that exclude the possibility that Russia transferred a complete ICBM system, they concluded, citing major differences in the guidance systems and the missiles' third stages.
Some of the Hwasong-18's systems, in fact, more closely resemble Chinese weapons, and the North has been publicly developing solid-fuel missiles since at least 2017, the researchers added.
"There is nothing sudden or surprising about North Korea’s continued development of large solid propellant rocket motors," they said.
RUSSIAN ROOTS
North Korea’s missile programme has roots in assistance it got from the Soviet Union, and later Russia, analysts say, and the boosters involved in propelling the warheads are similar to Soviet designs.
However, there is debate over how much that assistance has continued since the 1990s, and North Korea has many ways of gathering information about other countries' technology.
For example, a group of North Korean hackers secretly breached computer networks at a major Russian missile developer for at least five months last year, according to technical evidence reviewed by Reuters and analysis by security researchers.
According to recent sanctions designations by the United States, North Koreans in China and Russia, linked to the agency that oversees its missile development, procure materials and technical information for its nuclear and missile programmes, aided by at least one Russian telecommunications company and a Russian national.
Markus Schiller, a Europe-based missile expert, has also argued that North Korea’s success in testing suggests it has had external support.
Schiller notes, however, that under leader Kim Jong Un, North Korean missiles failed more often than in the past, suggesting that Kim was testing more homegrown designs than his predecessors.
Russia's defence minister Sergei Shoigu accompanied Kim to a North Korean defence exhibition and military parade last month that featured North Korea's banned ballistic missiles as the neighbours pledged to boost military ties.
The United States and South Korea have accused North Korea of providing military aid to Russia for the war in Ukraine, something both Moscow and Pyongyang deny.
South Korea's spy agency is closely watching for any Russian transfer of nuclear missile technology to the North, lawmaker Yoo Sang-bum told reporters in Seoul on Thursday.
(Reporting by Josh Smith; additional reporting by David Brunnstrom in Washington; editing by Robert Birsel)
Copyright 2023 Thomson Reuters.
Tags: South Korea, North Korea, Russia
13. China-Japan-South Korea Relations Under Global Geopolitical Context – Analysis
Conclusion:
The trilateral meeting of leaders from the United States, Japan, and South Korea at Camp David could become a significant juncture in the development of the East Asian geopolitical landscape. China needs to be vigilant about whether this might evolve into a permanent military alliance among these three nations. The situation in East Asia is likely to continue deteriorating, which is unfavorable for China. However, in this environment, China should remain open, uphold substantial economic and trade relationships, maintain communication as much as possible, and patiently await the arrival of a new political cycle.
China-Japan-South Korea Relations Under Global Geopolitical Context – Analysis
https://www.eurasiareview.com/18082023-china-japan-south-korea-relations-under-global-geopolitical-context-analysis/
August 18, 2023 1 Comment
By Anbound
By He Jun
On August 18, U.S. President Joe Biden invites Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol to hold a summit at the Camp David presidential retreat. Unlike formal political venues like the White House, the Camp David meeting is a form of estate diplomacy deeply rooted in American culture. Due to its somewhat informal “private” nature, it better demonstrates the sense of “closeness” that the U.S. wants to convey to Japan and South Korea. To some extent, this can be seen as a reward from the U.S. to Japan and South Korea for their high-level cooperation in geopolitics in recent years.
After World War II, Japan and South Korea became U.S. allies, and this alliance has lasted for 78 years to the present day. After adjusting its strategy towards China, the U.S. began to create various encirclement against China globally with its allies or partner countries. These include political, economic, technological, military, and educational aspects. There are traditional multilateral mechanisms (such as NATO, G7, EU), new multilateral frameworks (such as the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, trilateral dialogues like AUKUS, Quad, etc.), and various bilateral mechanisms (such as U.S.-Japan, U.S.-South Korea, U.S.-Philippines, etc.). After years of continuous efforts, combined with the stimulation provided by the situation in Ukraine, such a multi-faceted encirclement of China has gradually taken shape.
In recent years, there have been numerous bilateral or multilateral meetings between the U.S. Japan, South Korea, including trilateral meetings held within multilateral forums (such as the U.S.-Japan-South Korea trilateral summit during the ASEAN summit on November 13, 2022, in Phnom Penh, Cambodia). However, a trilateral meeting like the upcoming one at Camp David, specifically for the three countries is extremely rare. One question arises: after 78 years of stable military alliances, what is the purpose of this trilateral summit? In which areas do they wish to make further progress? Researchers at ANBOUND believe that the most significant focus to observe during the Camp David summit is whether the three countries will establish a formal “trilateral military alliance”. If so, this could potentially serve as a prototype of an “Asian version of NATO”.
On August 14, Reuters cited unnamed senior U.S. government officials who stated that the leaders of the three countries will launch a series of joint initiatives in technology, education, and defense, particularly by initiating new defense measures. The officials mentioned that while this summit is unlikely to reach a formal security agreement and cannot make commitments for mutual defense among nations, the leaders of the countries will agree on regional responsibilities, and establish a “three-way hot line to communicate in times of crisis”. U.S. officials hope that the summit will mark the beginning of an annual meeting between the leaders of the U.S., Japan, and South Korea, formally establishing relations and cooperation among the three nations, that will bring them “closer together in the security realm” and add to the “collective security”. It is worth noting that U.S. officials mentioned a future vision: “it’s too much to ask – it’s a bridge too far – to fully expect a three-way security framework among each of us. However, we are taking steps whereby each of the countries understand responsibilities with respect to regional security, and we are advancing new areas of coordination and ballistic missile defense, again technology, that will be perceived as very substantial”.
In the above statements, the officials do not conceal their long-term goal—establishing a formal U.S.-Japan-South Korea trilateral security framework. Once this framework is established, the three countries will have a military alliance framework aimed at a common hypothetical adversary. Under this framework, the cooperation among the three nations will go far beyond cooperation such as intelligence sharing. It will be constrained by a solidified trilateral security framework in various aspects, including joint military actions, daily military collaboration, emergency response, conditions triggering war, and more. For China, this is undoubtedly a major geopolitical change. Given the close geographical proximity of China, Japan, and South Korea, this gradually forming a military alliance is essentially a “mini-NATO” right under China’s nose.
There is no doubt that the enhanced security cooperation among the U.S., Japan, and South Korea is closely related to China. It can even be seen as a geopolitical mechanism tailored for China.
First of all, the U.S. has successfully portrayed China as a common “hypothetical adversary” for itself, as well as for Japan, and South Korea. Despite the domestic challenges faced by the aging President Biden, it must be acknowledged that he has been quite effective in pursuing diplomacy focused on containing China. For instance, the U.S. has successfully organized chip restrictions against China within the Western world; effectively influenced the European Union to postpone the review of the EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment, which is likely to be a permanent postponement; and established the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework within the Indo-Pacific Strategy Framework, which, regardless of its effectiveness, at least in form, excludes China. While Japan and South Korea have both had fluctuations in their relations with China in the past, it is rare for the leaders of both countries to take a tough stance towards China simultaneously.
By including Japanese Prime Minister Kishida and South Korean President Yoon, this is tantamount to a “dual tough” approach. Yoon’s unprecedented concessions on historical issues have broken the deadlock in Japan-South Korea relations, leading to a historic breakthrough in the relationship. According to field research conducted by some scholars, the prevailing attitude in Japanese society toward improving Japan-China relations is essentially “hopeless” and “unnecessary”. Regarding visits to China by important economic groups within the year, it has been expressed that the schedules of key Japanese economic leaders are already full, making a collective visit to China impractical and less necessary. Based on reports from the Japanese media, there seems to be very little room for cooperation between Japan and China beyond their confrontational stance.
Furthermore, if the U.S., Japan, and South Korea establish a stable trilateral security framework, it will have a significant impact on the Taiwan issue. In the geopolitical landscape of East Asia, both Japan and South Korea have tied themselves to the Taiwan issue. Former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe argued that “a Taiwan emergency is a Japanese emergency, and therefore an emergency for the Japan-U.S. alliance”. South Korea, which had been reluctant to take a prominent stance on the Taiwan issue in the past, has broken tradition and become more assertive. President Yoon directly stated that the “Taiwan issue is not a China issue, but a global issue”.
According to Reuters analysis, the summit is aimed to address the “greater regional threats posed both by China’s rise and North Korea”. It is reported that particularly concerning issues related to China, it is expected that a joint statement will be released during the U.S.-Japan-South Korea trilateral leaders’ meeting, with contents involving the situation in the Taiwan Strait. A U.S. official disclosed that the trilateral joint statement will “include language on maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait”. However, the specific content and wording related to this matter are expected to be finalized at the last moment of negotiations.
For China, the changes in these two neighboring countries, especially South Korea, were unimaginable in the past. Previously, during the era of globalization, economic logic prevailed; now, countries are guided by geopolitical logic. From the perspective of many politicians today, what economic logic pursues fails to contribute to national security and can be ditched.
From the current situation in East Asia, the strengthening of security cooperation between the U.S., Japan, and South Korea to address geopolitical frictions has further narrowed the space for peaceful communication among relevant countries. The series of bilateral or trilateral military exercises conducted by the three countries in the East Asian region, as well as the cooperative military drills between China and South Korea in the Sea of Japan and the Western Pacific, have escalated tensions in the region. Against the backdrop of the Ukraine war, China is facing the development where the U.S. and its allies aiming to shape China, Russia, and North Korea into a new geopolitical bloc. Russia has already become an open enemy of the Western world, North Korea is considered the “Axis of Evil” in the eyes of the U.S., and China is seen as the most challenging “long-term strategic competitor”. If China, Russia, and North Korea are lumped together by the West, it undoubtedly poses significant challenges to it.
In the face of this complex situation, from an independent think tank perspective, researchers at ANBOUND offer a few personal thoughts:
Firstly, the tense geopolitical situation in East Asia is still deteriorating. This is part of the global geopolitical pattern changes driven by the U.S., forming a subsystem within a larger global system. Given that this larger system remains unchanged, it is difficult to alter the subsystem. This implies that the key to changing the situation in East Asia is not solely in the hands of China, Japan, and South Korea. If U.S.-China relations do not improve, the East Asian situation is unlikely to change for the better. Moreover, in the current situation, the U.S. benefits from maintaining friction and tension between China and neighboring countries and regions, as this aligns with its strategy of encircling China.
Secondly, while China’s relations with Japan and South Korea are influenced by its relationship with the U.S., China should strive to differentiate and distinguish these relationships, treating the improvement of China-Japan and China-South Korea relations as independent goals, and seeking means for coexistence. With this in mind, China should fully utilize various channels and relationships for communication with Japan and South Korea, enhance bilateral or trilateral economic and trade dialogues, and work to maintain an open state conducive to dialogue. Additionally, China may need to moderately control the spread of extreme nationalism at the societal level. If left unchecked, such sentiments could form a so-called “public opinion” on unregulated online platforms, subsequently influencing national policies.
Thirdly, the deterioration of China-Japan and China-South Korea relations did not happen overnight, and improving these relations will also take time. Faced with the current situation, China needs to view its relations with Japan and South Korea from a global perspective, maintain openness while safeguarding its bottom line, leverage its advantages in economics and markets, and strive to maintain the stability of economic and trade relations. Many other aspects may need to be left to time to decide. We believe that Japan and South Korea’s political dynamics cannot remain as firm as they are now forever, and changes will also occur in China’s economic and social landscape. China needs to be prepared on a clear course and wait for the arrival of a new political cycle.
The shifts in the international landscape do not happen suddenly, and the evolving relations between Japan, South Korea, and China do not occur over a short period. Reflecting on the significant global changes of the last six to seven years, Japan and South Korea were not at the forefront of advocating for the decoupling of China from the rest of the world. Instead, they have deep geographical, economic, and trade ties with China. While they were aware of their eventual departure from China, the actual process has not been as swift as initially thought. When ANBOUND introduced the “1+3” global framework (Kung Chan, May 2018), it was essentially the final opportunity to deter them from pulling away. Presently, Japan, South Korea, and even Germany are faced with the reality that their economic and business sectors will ultimately have to detach from China, and the time for this pivotal moment has now begun.
Final analysis conclusion:
The trilateral meeting of leaders from the United States, Japan, and South Korea at Camp David could become a significant juncture in the development of the East Asian geopolitical landscape. China needs to be vigilant about whether this might evolve into a permanent military alliance among these three nations. The situation in East Asia is likely to continue deteriorating, which is unfavorable for China. However, in this environment, China should remain open, uphold substantial economic and trade relationships, maintain communication as much as possible, and patiently await the arrival of a new political cycle.
He Jun is a researcher at ANBOUND
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Anbound Consulting (Anbound) is an independent Think Tank with the headquarter based in Beijing. Established in 1993, Anbound specializes in public policy research, and enjoys a professional reputation in the areas of strategic forecasting, policy solutions and risk analysis. Anbound's research findings are widely recognized and create a deep interest within public media, academics and experts who are also providing consulting service to the State Council of China.
14. Trilateral Camp David summit and its historical implications
Joe, Suk Yeol, and Fumio.
Conclusion:
On a concluding note, I wish to see the three leaders start calling each other on a first-name basis for the first time in the history of their trilateral relations. In diplomacy, friendship among leaders is a key component of their mutual trust and vice versa.
Trilateral Camp David summit and its historical implications
The Korea Times · August 17, 2023
By Yun Byung-se
The trilateral Camp David summit slated for Friday will go down as a new chapter in the history of Northeast Asia for symbolic and substantive reasons. This is the first time that the leaders of the United States, South Korea and Japan are gathering for a standalone trilateral summit and not on the sidelines of multilateral summits like in the past. Remarkably, it is taking place just three months after their most recent meeting at the Hiroshima G7 Summit, and will be the fourth since President Yoon Suk Yeol's inauguration in May last year.
President Joe Biden's choice of Camp David, the presidential retreat, as the venue must have been well thought out and is meaningful. He probably intended this summit to be another historic milestone like the 1978 Camp David summit of the three leaders who signed the Camp David Accords. That was a turning point for a historic reconciliation between Israel and Egypt and established a framework for the Peace Treaty signed by the two countries the following year.
Substance-wise, pre-briefings from three capitals provide a rough sketch of the envisaged outcome ― milestones that could be set this time and the future evolution of the summit. The key message is that this summit will be a new stage of trilateral cooperation. For example, they are expected to regularize this separate summit at least once a year, meaning it will be a summit process we are witnessing in many other parts of the Indo-Pacific and the world.
Certainly, President Yoon's bold initiative towards Japan over the past history issues prompted this virtuous cycle of bilateral and trilateral interactions, including the exchange of visits between President Yoon and Prime Minister Fumio Kishida as well as President Yoon's state visit to the U.S. Thus, it is no coincidence that a separate summit is held in the year marking both the 70th anniversary of the ROK-U.S. alliance and the 25th anniversary of the Joint Declaration for A New Japan-Korea Partnership.
From my standpoint, the Camp David Summit is expected to be differentiated from previous ones in four substantive and future-oriented ways.
First, it will adopt a Magna Carta document of guiding principles for future trilateral cooperation, including the vision of the future, common values and a rules-based international order.
Second, today's summit is expected to adopt action-oriented sectoral statements to implement their trilateral vision in the face of multiple regional and global challenges. It will lay out their joint strategy to upgrade their coordination, broadly in areas of global governance, military and economic security, trade and technology, as well as on some specific areas of concern, such as the North Korean nuclear and missile threats. Launching an annual trilateral military exercise will be a good example.
Third, it will evolve into a built-in trilateral mechanism or institution going beyond a summit process, with multi-layered sub-bodies to address new geopolitical and geo-economic challenges in the Indo-Pacific and the world in a more integrated way.
U.S. President Joe Biden attends a photo op on the day of trilateral engagement with Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and Korea's President Yoon Suk Yeol at the G7 Summit at the Grand Prince Hotel in Hiroshima, Japan, May 21. Reuters-Yonhap
"Built-in" also means that this mechanism will be less affected by the change of governments in three countries, making it hard to "reverse" through unilateral political decisions. For the U.S., it will represent a transformation of the weak trilateral link of its Indo-Pacific and global strategy into one strong troika to be on a par with Quad and AUKUS, at this historical inflection point.
In the case of Korea and Japan, they could be less subject to past historical issues by decoupling them from the trilateral cooperation agenda as much as possible within the firewall of a new trilateral mechanism. Now, the linchpin (ROK-U.S. alliance) and the cornerstone (U.S.-Japan alliance) of regional and global peace and prosperity can reinforce each other. In reality, however, they will have to overcome daunting obstacles at home and abroad on the road to a higher level of security cooperation, not to mention China's criticism of what it calls a "trilateral military alliance" in the region.
Lastly, if this summit process proceeds smoothly, that will certainly help the Yoon government's pursuit of the Global Pivotal State (GPS) initiative and Indo-Pacific Strategy, and probably its wish to join the G7 Plus. Further, it could pave the way for a new reconciliation agreement or declaration between Korea and Japan in time for the 60th anniversary of their normalization treaty of 1965. We could benchmark the Franco-German Treaty of Friendship (Elysee Treaty) of 1963 and its update Treaty of Aachen of 2019.
As we set forth on a long journey, we could start at a comfortable pace and then adjust our gears later, hoping and believing that this positive spirit will be the legacy for the succeeding governments in three capitals.
On a concluding note, I wish to see the three leaders start calling each other on a first-name basis for the first time in the history of their trilateral relations. In diplomacy, friendship among leaders is a key component of their mutual trust and vice versa.
Yun Byung-se, a former foreign minister of South Korea (2013-2017), is now chairman of NEAR Global Survey Project, a board member of the Korea Peace Foundation and a member of several ex-global leaders' forums and task forces, including the Astana Forum and its Consultative Council as well as the Task Force on U.S. Allies and Nuclear Weapons Proliferation sponsored by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs.
The Korea Times · August 17, 2023
15. At Camp David, Biden looks to cement a fragile truce
Truce? Is that the right word? I guess if you apply the second definition it is:
: a suspension of fighting especially of considerable duration by agreement of opposing forces : ARMISTICE, CEASE-FIRE
: a respite especially from a disagreeable or painful state or action
At Camp David, Biden looks to cement a fragile truce
By ELI STOKOLS, PHELIM KINE and JENNIFER HABERKORN
08/17/2023 04:30 AM EDT
Politico
Improved relations between Japan and South Korea could bolster the president’s legacy — if they endure.
The White House sees the historic summit with leaders of Japan and South Korea as another example of Biden delivering on his pledge to restore America’s alliances. | Evan Vucci/AP Photo
08/17/2023 04:30 AM EDT
For the first time ever, the leaders of Japan and South Korea will gather in a stand-alone summit with President Joe Biden, who’s hoping to serve as a bridge builder between the long-time foes.
The White House sees Friday’s historic summit at Camp David as another example of Biden delivering on his pledge to restore America’s alliances — particularly important in a region beset by threats from North Korea and China.
Those who’ve worked on issues in the region say it’s an opportune moment for Biden to have an impact.
“This Camp David summitry — that’s really a big deal,” said Robert Sutter, a former national intelligence officer for East Asia and the Pacific who is now an international affairs professor at George Washington University. “A new era may be coming out of this.”
That’s what the White House hopes will materialize from Biden’s first-ever use of Camp David for a summit, the first for the three nations that hasn’t been held on the sidelines of an international gathering. The rapprochement between Japan and South Korea is still fragile — a response to an increasingly uncertain geopolitical environment and a recognition that, however strained their past, their present and future interests are strengthened by unity on economic and security matters.
The main impetus for these two nations to become allies is the changing security landscape in the region, including growing threats from the mercurial recluse with nuclear weapons in North Korea. There’s also a rising China, which has made brazen moves in the Taiwan Strait and around the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu islands.
“They’ve always been important friends, but our alliances with both Japan and South Korea have become even more important with the newly aggressive actions taken by China,” said Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), chair of the Senate Foreign Relations East Asia, the Pacific, and International Cybersecurity Policy Subcommittee. “When you have two allies who are fighting with one another, it obviously weakens the overall alliance.”
The long-term progress sought from Friday’s meeting may hinge a great deal on how long the three leaders at Camp David are able to maintain their grip on power. South Korea’s Yoon Suk Yeol has already paid something of a diplomatic price for his willingness to engage with Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio and to turn the page on long-lingering ill will stemming from Japan’s brutal occupation of the Korean Peninsula from 1910 to 1945.
“Yoon’s putting his political future on the table and facing considerable opposition,” said Harry Harris, a Japanese-born former naval officer and diplomat who served as U.S. ambassador to Korea. Roughly 70 percent of Koreans, he noted, oppose Yoon’s approach to Japan. But, he continued, “Yoon realizes that no substantial issue in northeast Asia can be resolved satisfactorily without both Seoul and Tokyo’s active participation.”
Sen. Bill Hagerty (R-Tenn.), a former U.S. ambassador to Japan, said the catalyst for greater trilateral cooperation “has been our joint concern about the aggressiveness” of the Chinese Community Party in the region, and he predicted “greater military to military cooperation” between Japan and South Korea.
But it’s unlikely this would be happening without Biden, a foreign policy traditionalist who’s restored America’s focus on alliances that are — more often than not — undergirded by shared values. For the Koreans especially, it’s a welcome reversion to the Washington norm after a bumpy four years marked by former President Donald Trump cozying up to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.
Van Hollen credited the Biden administration for “laying the groundwork here from the beginning.” It gained the trust and interest of both countries via interactions such as side conservations at international summits as well as lower-level communications like the parliamentary meeting he participated in with counterparts from the South Korean and Japanese legislatures earlier this year.
“All of these measures I think have helped bring about this summit,” he said.
Rep. Young Kim (R-Calif.), a Korean American who chairs the House Foreign Affairs Committee’s Indo-Pacific Subcommittee, also credited Yoon for publicly opening the door to improved relations with Japan, even when it is not popular in his country.
“He is willing to take that risk for the good of the future of countering the common threat,” she said. “We need to do this together. That’s the leadership that has made it possible for them to get past that.”
The Indo-Pacific region “is desperate for more of America ... not just battleships, not just the political front, the economic front — its engagement with the region,” U.S. Ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel said of the value of the trilateral relationship at a Brookings event Wednesday. “China is unanchored, untethered [and] is a risk to the region.”
Beijing, which has employed coercive economic practices to solidify its supremacy in global development and trade, is paying attention to the summit.
The U.S. is “assembling exclusionary groupings and practices that intensify antagonism and undermine the strategic security of other countries,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin told reporters Tuesday when asked about the trilateral.
Given Japan and South Korea’s economic interdependence with China, it’s unlikely any joint communique the three leaders sign Friday will be explicit in criticizing Beijing. But the expected deliverables that may emerge — enhanced intelligence sharing, joint military exercises, new potential partnerships on semiconductors or artificial intelligence — would further clarify how the trilateral cooperation lines up with the Biden administration’s broader policy in the Indo-Pacific.
Like with “the Quad” — U.S., Japan, Australia, and India — and the U.S. security pact with the U.K. and Australia known as AUKUS, the “trilat” is an effort to deepen a sense of shared purpose and unify allies in a critical region as a bulwark against Beijing.
The matter of some individual political futures being up in the air — Yoon’s party will face voters in parliamentary elections next year, just months ahead of the 2024 U.S. presidential election — has only added to the urgency creating this moment of new cooperation. In some ways, the possibility of Biden’s defeat next year is another reason for Japan and South Korea to establish a partnership now as something of a hedge against future political uncertainty in Washington.
“Both Yoon and Kishida see this as a real opportunity to nail down a long-term trilateral conception of how our interests align — to reset the standards of what we’re doing together at a much higher level and make it more durable, even as our domestic politics shift,” said David Rank, a former charges d’affaires at the U.S. Embassy in Beijing and veteran Korea desk official at the State Department. “Biden is making that three-way relationship a part of the firmament of American involvement in Asia.”
But nothing is a given, especially considering the political volatility in the U.S. and the years of rancor between Japan and South Korea.
“The U.S. has got to be paying attention or it could go off the rails,” Rank said. “There’s just so much tension in the [Seoul-Tokyo] relationship.”
POLITICO
Politico
16. Hackers From North Korea Stole Over $180M In Crypto Within 6 Months: Report
Transitioning that $180 million from crypto to hard currency usually ends up with less hard currency. Nonetheless I think we can assess that the regime's crypto thefts are one of the means by which the regime is keeping its head above water.
Hackers From North Korea Stole Over $180M In Crypto Within 6 Months: Report - Zenger News
zenger.news · by Murtuza Merchant · August 17, 2023
Singapore’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) is reporting that North Korean hackers have illicitly acquired over $180 million in cryptocurrency in the first half of 2023 alone.
This adds to the staggering $1.5 billion in virtual assets North Korea has allegedly stolen since 2015.
The NIS believes that information from 1,000 domestic credit card accounts was stolen and, according to Rep. Yoo Sang-beom, the agency “quickly took security measures.”
The news comes as Russian officials, including Defense Minister Shoigu, court North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.
“The NIS is judging that the two sides agreed on a broader plan for military cooperation through this,” stated Rep. Yoo.
In this photo illustration a Bitcoin logo is displayed on a smartphone. According to Singapore’s National Intelligence Service (NIS), North Korean hackers stole more than $180 million in bitcoin in just the first half of 2023. OMAR MARQUES/SOPA/GETTY IMAGES
Additionally, the NIS has identified an increase in smuggling activities by North Korea, with drug smuggling tripling in the first half of this year compared to the same period in the previous year.
Gold bar volumes also saw a 50% increase.
The intelligence agency also highlighted the economic challenges faced by North Korea, with a decline in its GDP by 12% in 2022 compared to 2016.
This economic downturn has led to skyrocketing grain prices and a reported 240 cases of starvation from January to July.
Despite North Korea’s declaration of a “war on crime” earlier this year, the NIS believes there has been little impact. The agency also expressed concerns about the potential transfer of Russia’s core nuclear and missile technology to North Korea.
In response to the increasing complaints from residents, North Korea has established a task force to identify dissatisfied individuals.
The NIS has been closely monitoring these developments, along with the potential military cooperation between North Korea and Russia.
The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has been actively collaborating with the NIS to identify and address these concerns.
Ho Hern Shin, a deputy managing director of the MAS, emphasized the need for strengthened defenses against transnational money laundering and terrorism financing risks.
The recent intelligence committee meeting ended with a call for transparency and accountability.
Rep. Yoon Geon-Yeong urged for a more open approach, suggesting that some sessions be made public. However, Rep. Yoo argued against such disclosures, citing international norms.
In this photo illustration a Bitcoin logo is displayed on a smartphone. According to Singapore’s National Intelligence Service (NIS), North Korean hackers stole more than $180 million in bitcoin in just the first half of 2023. OMAR MARQUES/SOPA/GETTY IMAGES
The intelligence committee meeting concluded with NIS director Kim expressing regret over any discomfort caused during the previous session.
The committee also discussed potential amendments to the National Intelligence Service Act.
Produced in association with Benzinga
zenger.news · by Murtuza Merchant · August 17, 2023
17. The Trilateral Summit at Camp David: Institutionalizing U.S.-Japan-South Korea Coordination
Excerpts:
The trilateral communique is reported to address not only security coordination, but also economic and development cooperation and people-to-people exchanges that would tie the three countries together more deeply than any currently existing cooperative agreement in Asia. The redirection of bureaucratic energy and government budgets toward institutionalizing trilateral coordination would be intended as a booster shot for the two seven-decade-old bilateral alliances that are facing strong headwinds in the face of possible Chinese economic coercion and China’s political aspiration of regional centrality.
The three leaders may be adept at targeting China without explicitly mentioning China, but the other unspoken reality is that China and North Korea have historically been more adept at unintentionally stimulating cohesion among the three allies than splitting them apart. In this sense, the real threat to effective trilateralism continues to lie in the respective domestic political environments of the three countries given deepening domestic political polarization, especially in the domestic politics of the United States and South Korea, and its impact on the continuity of foreign policy during political leadership transitions. Will the new faces at future trilateral summits hold the same views or will they generate gaps that neutralize U.S.-Japan-South Korea trilateral aspirations, no matter how grand? Only time will tell.
The Trilateral Summit at Camp David: Institutionalizing U.S.-Japan-South Korea Coordination
The U.S.-Japan-South Korea summit at Camp David reflects trilateral institutionalization. However, the real threat to effective trilateralism lies in the domestic political environments of the three countries.
https://www.cfr.org/blog/trilateral-summit-camp-david-institutionalizing-us-japan-south-korea-coordination
Blog Post by Scott A. Snyder
August 17, 2023 11:02 am (EST)
Having identified competition with China as the administration’s “pacing challenge,” the Joe Biden administration has industriously promoted new forms of institutional collaboration with like-minded allies and partners: first, the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) alongside Australia, India, and Japan; next, the Australia-United Kingdom-U.S. (AUKUS) partnership intended to provide nuclear-powered submarines to Australia and deepen cutting-edge cooperation on military technological innovation among the three countries; and now, a U.S.-Japan-South Korea summit in which the parallel security aims of two consequential Northeast Asian allies have converged with those of the United States in an effort to uphold the rules-based international order.
The Biden administration has worked hard to bring Japan and South Korea together and to encourage both sides to set aside historical animosities. In addition, the shock waves from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and fears that a revisionist contagion might embolden Chinese or North Korean coercion in the Indo-Pacific region have aligned Japanese and South Korean security anxieties with the Biden administration’s aims. But nothing significantly moved until the March 2022 election of conservative South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, who championed his intent to prioritize stabilizing South Korea’s relationship with Japan. Yoon moved decisively last November to join Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and President Biden in an expansive statement of common security and economic interests on the sidelines of the East Asia Summit in Phnom Penh, Cambodia. Then, Yoon pushed forward a financing plan that sought private sector contributions to remunerate South Korean victims of World War II-era forced labor at the hands of Japanese companies. The solution set the foundation for normalizing relations with Japan, securing a highly effective state visit to Washington in April, and scoring an invitation to the Group of Seven (G7) summit in Hiroshima this past May.
But Yoon’s deal may not survive a South Korean political transition to a progressive administration. And security experts from South Korea and Japan wonder aloud whether current levels of coordination with the United States will be sustained following the U.S. presidential election next year. Thus, the Biden administration has pushed to institutionalize trilateral coordination in an attempt to “lock in” both allies and future U.S. leaderships to a collective commitment to bolster a rules-based as opposed to a force-based Indo-Pacific security order. The institutionalization of trilateralism also compartmentalizes such cooperation from bilateral disputes and distances the United States from having to play a mediating role between Japan and South Korea. The three-way stand-alone summit is intended to signal a collective security commitment among the United States, Japan, and South Korea. China’s Global Times has characterized the gathering as a “mini-NATO style” trilateral security alliance.
The trilateral communique is reported to address not only security coordination, but also economic and development cooperation and people-to-people exchanges that would tie the three countries together more deeply than any currently existing cooperative agreement in Asia. The redirection of bureaucratic energy and government budgets toward institutionalizing trilateral coordination would be intended as a booster shot for the two seven-decade-old bilateral alliances that are facing strong headwinds in the face of possible Chinese economic coercion and China’s political aspiration of regional centrality.
The three leaders may be adept at targeting China without explicitly mentioning China, but the other unspoken reality is that China and North Korea have historically been more adept at unintentionally stimulating cohesion among the three allies than splitting them apart. In this sense, the real threat to effective trilateralism continues to lie in the respective domestic political environments of the three countries given deepening domestic political polarization, especially in the domestic politics of the United States and South Korea, and its impact on the continuity of foreign policy during political leadership transitions. Will the new faces at future trilateral summits hold the same views or will they generate gaps that neutralize U.S.-Japan-South Korea trilateral aspirations, no matter how grand? Only time will tell.
18. Camp David summit: a trilateral march toward instability?
From the Quincy Institute. What is interesting is that there are former Quincy Institute members in the Biden Administration. (at least one Korea watcher).
But the authors make the argument that we should make ourselves weaker and risk our national security in the hopes that it will not make our adversaries stronger. Basically if anything bad happens in the Asia Pacific it will be because the US is trying to encourage trilateral cooperation.
Excerpts:
However, the reinforcement of trilateral military ties will also entail risks and shortcomings posed by further intensification of the regional security dilemma. Strengthening trilateral security cooperation is likely to reinforce the confrontational divide between the United States, South Korea, and Japan on the one hand and China, North Korea, and Russia on the other.
As trilateral security cooperation grows, especially in the missile defense realm and potentially other military-strategic dimensions, it can exacerbate security concerns of North Korea and China, creating more reasons for them to harden their own security postures and promote their own trilateral military partnership with Russia. Pyongyang, Beijing, and Moscow can eventually begin to conduct joint exercises on a regular basis and deepen their overall military engagement and coordination.
The ties between Pyongyang, Beijing, and Moscow have long been fragile, but as the three become more concerned about their security environment, the attraction of greater strategic alignment may increase. The likelihood of such a scenario only seems to be growing in light of North Korea’s diminishing hopes for peace negotiations with the United States, China’s soaring hostility toward U.S. containment, and the West’s isolation of Russia following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.
Ultimately, in pursuing trilateral cooperation, Washington, Tokyo, and Seoul should seek to mitigate the destabilizing security dilemma dynamic. Simply expanding military cooperation can only make the regional security situation worse, not better. Improving security will require military deterrence to be coupled with robust collective diplomacy to manage and reduce tensions and minimize the risk of crisis and conflict with North Korea and China.
Camp David summit: a trilateral march toward instability? - Responsible Statecraft
responsiblestatecraft.org · by James Park, Mike Mochizuki · August 18, 2023
Camp David summit: a trilateral march toward instability?
Today’s meeting between the US, South Korea, and Japan will codify cooperation but warning signs persist.
August 18, 2023
Written by
James Park and Mike Mochizuki
Camp David summit: a trilateral march toward instability?
The August 18th U.S.-Japan-South Korea summit held at Camp David seeks to institutionalize the rapid progress in Japan-South Korea security cooperation that was enabled by South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol’s’ bold decision to resolve the World War II-era forced labor issue between Tokyo and Seoul.
In March 2023, Yoon decided to compensate Korean victims of Japanese forced labor by using South Korean funds. Five years ago, the South Korean Supreme Court ruled that Japanese companies should compensate these victims. The Japanese government, however, opposed this court ruling by insisting that this issue had already been resolved during the 1965 Japan-South Korea normalization process.
Alarmed by North Korea’s missile and nuclear weapons programs and wary of Chinese economic coercion and military assertiveness, President Yoon calculated that an improvement in relations with Japan was necessary to promote South Korea’s security interests.
But Yoon’s concession to Japan has not been popular. About 60 percent of the South Korean public oppose his decision. Although Prime Minister Fumio Kishida reciprocated by announcing Japanese funding for bilateral youth exchanges, this gesture is unlikely to satisfy many South Koreans who continue to feel that Japan has not adequately addressed the wrongs it inflicted during its colonial rule over Korea.
To make his political gamble pay off, Yoon has moved quickly to improve security cooperation with Japan as well as the United States. He hopes to lock in this progress so that it will be irreversible by the time his presidential term ends in 2027. The United States has long sought stronger Japan-South Korean security ties, and President Biden has seized this opportunity by hosting President Yoon and Prime Minister Kishida at Camp David for a historic trilateral summit.
The meeting’s anticipated results include regularized trilateral summits and 2+2 meetings involving foreign and defense ministers, the establishment of a trilateral hotline, and new agreements to improve collective military cooperation with a focus on missile defense, notably the development of a trilateral real-time missile intelligence-sharing system and the regularization of joint missile interception drills.
These outcomes will enhance deterrence and improve trilateral cooperation to deal with regional crises. Specifically, the new missile defense cooperation initiatives could address existing South Korean and Japanese deficiencies in some meaningful ways, notably by improving the accuracy of their missile data assessments and their ability to intercept various kinds of advanced North Korean missiles in a crisis situation.
However, the reinforcement of trilateral military ties will also entail risks and shortcomings posed by further intensification of the regional security dilemma. Strengthening trilateral security cooperation is likely to reinforce the confrontational divide between the United States, South Korea, and Japan on the one hand and China, North Korea, and Russia on the other.
As trilateral security cooperation grows, especially in the missile defense realm and potentially other military-strategic dimensions, it can exacerbate security concerns of North Korea and China, creating more reasons for them to harden their own security postures and promote their own trilateral military partnership with Russia. Pyongyang, Beijing, and Moscow can eventually begin to conduct joint exercises on a regular basis and deepen their overall military engagement and coordination.
The ties between Pyongyang, Beijing, and Moscow have long been fragile, but as the three become more concerned about their security environment, the attraction of greater strategic alignment may increase. The likelihood of such a scenario only seems to be growing in light of North Korea’s diminishing hopes for peace negotiations with the United States, China’s soaring hostility toward U.S. containment, and the West’s isolation of Russia following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.
Ultimately, in pursuing trilateral cooperation, Washington, Tokyo, and Seoul should seek to mitigate the destabilizing security dilemma dynamic. Simply expanding military cooperation can only make the regional security situation worse, not better. Improving security will require military deterrence to be coupled with robust collective diplomacy to manage and reduce tensions and minimize the risk of crisis and conflict with North Korea and China.
The Camp David summit will likely focus predominantly on trilateral security cooperation and leave much to be desired on the regional diplomacy front. Collective diplomacy should be an important pillar of the trilateral partnership, as well as collective defense.
Compared to the United States, which is now often constrained by American domestic politics from pursuing a moderate approach toward China or North Korea, South Korea and Japan – particularly South Korea – are freer from such domestic constraints and thus enjoy more policy flexibility. Washington should take advantage of its partners’ greater political flexibility to fashion a more coherent diplomatic strategy toward Beijing and Pyongyang.
Despite the Yoon administration’s hardline stance on North Korea, Seoul’s eventual policy objective is to resume diplomacy with Pyongyang and engage in nuclear negotiations based on a step-by-step framework, as underscored in its “audacious initiative” strategy. The Kishida administration also has a strong interest in re-engaging Pyongyang, not only for nuclear disarmament but also for resolving the Japan-North Korea abduction issue. In short, Seoul and Tokyo share an interest in spearheading a diplomatic initiative toward Pyongyang and should cooperate in doing so.
As part of a diplomatic deal to freeze and reduce North Korea’s missile and nuclear programs step-by-step, Japan and South Korea should be willing to relax sanctions, and Japan should address the issue of compensating North Korea for its colonial rule. Offering concessions to North Korea can be politically costly, but it eventually needs to happen in order to restart nuclear negotiations. Washington would incur less domestic political heat if Seoul and Tokyo are seen to lead the re-engagement effort.
While the United States may be increasingly tempted to pull Japan and South Korea closer to its side against China, it risks deepening tension and division within the trilateral partnership and should thus be avoided. Trying to transform the trilateral partnership into an overtly anti-China coalition does not serve Washington’s interest in developing a healthy, mutually beneficial trilateral partnership with Tokyo and Seoul.
Many in South Korea and Japan do not favor a stridently confrontational approach toward China given their countries’ vital security and economic interests. The costs of any military conflict with China that would be incurred by South Korea and Japan would be unbearable given their geographical proximity.
Tokyo and Seoul are also deeply concerned about how extensive U.S. high-tech trade controls against China will be. While both find a need to “de-risk” and diversify supply chains, they still see the importance of stable economic relations with China, which is their leading trading partner. These South Korean and Japanese concerns should be incorporated into the trilateral cooperation agenda.
In fact, when South Korea and Japan have better relations with China, it can make their engagement with the United States easier. Washington could draw a lesson from Nancy Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan — President Yoon refused to meet her when she stopped over in Seoul on her way home. If Seoul was more confident in its relationship with Beijing, the result might have been different.
In this context, the United States should encourage South Korea and Japan to develop a more credible reassurance policy toward China on the Taiwan issue in order to stabilize their relationships with China. The worse their relations with China, the more burdensome South Korea and Japan would feel about engaging more deeply with the United States.
Like the U.S.-China spy balloon saga earlier this year, there will likely be many more occasions when Washington faces enormous political pressure at home to act tougher on China than it intends or desires. As the South Korea-U.S.-Japan trilateral partnership expands and tension with China grows, Tokyo and Seoul’s relative political flexibility can prove valuable for reassuring Beijing.
Keeping expectations reasonable and well-balanced regarding China will be important for building a healthy and mutually beneficial trilateral partnership, but just as critical will be managing the internal political division between South Korea and Japan. The fragility of Japan-South Korea ties caused by thorny historical and territorial disputes will remain an obstacle to building resilience in the trilateral partnership.
In order to enable President Yoon’s bold decision regarding the forced labor issue, Japan must do more to promote reconciliation regarding its colonial rule over Korea. Tokyo should move beyond a strict transactional approach and promote greater Japanese awareness and empathy at the societal level regarding the suffering that Koreans endured during the colonial period.
South Korea-Japan government-to-government rapprochement that lacks the support of the broader South Korean polity and civil society is unlikely to endure and can eventually constrain the trilateral partnership.
19. No ‘NEATO’ likely, but Biden hopes to use summit to bind East Asian allies
JAROKUS.
Excerpts:
The leading trading partner of both Asian nations is China, a complicating factor in U.S. policy. Ironically, Beijing’s lengthening regional shadow is energizing Seoul and Tokyo’s surprising rapprochement. Five years ago, the two capitals were battling over trade, historical grievances and intelligence sharing.
“It is remarkable these discussions are taking place as, as recently as 2018, a Korean destroyer illuminated a Japanese reconnaissance aircraft with its target radar,” said Mr. Neill. “There has clearly been fence-mending, and the unifying factor is the regional security environment.”
No ‘NEATO’ likely, but Biden hopes to use summit to bind East Asian allies
Politics may intrude as South Korean, Japanese leaders come to Camp David
washingtontimes.com · by Andrew Salmon
By - The Washington Times - Thursday, August 17, 2023
SEOUL, South Korea — Don’t look for a “NEATO” — a NATO-like military alliance for Northeast Asia — to emerge from President Biden’s Camp David summit on Friday with the leaders of South Korea and Japan, but the three heads of state will be under pressure to formalize the foundations of trilateral strategic and economic cooperation.
President Biden, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol have met on the sidelines of other diplomatic gatherings, but the gathering Friday is touted as the allies’ first-ever dedicated trilateral summit.
“I think what you can expect to see coming out of this summit is a collaboration on a trilateral basis that is further institutionalized in a variety of ways, to include regular meetings at … senior levels in our governments,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said this week. “Japan and South Korea are core allies — not just in the region, but around the world.”
The summit would have seemed unlikely just a few years ago. Although Japan and South Korea have solid alliances with the U.S., their fraught bilateral relations have persistently complicated Washington’s attempts to present a united front in the region against adversaries such as North Korea and China.
The summit takes advantage of the unusual amity between the Kishida and Yoon administrations, which have overcome distrust dating back to Japan’s colonial occupation of the Korean Peninsula in the decades before World War II.
National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters Wednesday that the summit will take “relationships with each other and amongst each other to a whole new level.” Whether the alliance will become more formal and long-term is uncertain.
SEE ALSO: China blasts U.S.-Japan-South Korea summit, warns of ‘contradictions and increasing tensions’
The trilateral meeting has raised hackles in Beijing and Pyongyang.
China’s state-controlled Global Times news website accused the three leaders of colluding to create a “mini-NATO” that would be “destructive to regional security.” Russia’s Tass news agency reported that North Korean Defense Minister Kang Sun-nam told a security conference in Moscow this week that the Biden administration was driving the region to the verge of nuclear war.
The sharp criticisms point to a growing security divide in the Indo-Pacific region, pitting authoritarian, transcontinental powers China, Russia and their partners against democratic, peripheral powers in U.S.-allied Western Europe and Northeast Asia.
China and Russia are upgrading defense cooperation, notably in the air and naval domains. North Korea’s nuclear missile force boasts the range to strike anywhere between Seoul and Washington.
The need for speed
The three leaders at Camp David have much to discuss tactically, including joint drills and nuclear arms sharing. They also have pressing reasons to strike political deals, said Kurt Campbell, the National Security Council point man on East Asia.
The summit aims “to lock in trilateral engagement both now and in the future,” he told the Brookings Institution on Wednesday, “not just the near future, but the far future.”
Without concrete commitments, successive administrations in all three nations could roll back trilateral cooperation.
Japan looks stable. The Liberal Democratic Party has been in power since 2012 and has consistently pursued a stronger defense and sharper security profile since the Shinzo Abe administration.
Japanese voters have accepted, largely without protest, a creeping strategy of rearming and upgrading defense doctrines.
“There are questions about Kishida’s popularity, so I am not so sure he would be willing to take political risks,” said James Kim, an analyst of public opinion in South Korea and Japan who lectures at Columbia University. “But the LDP is not likely to be overturned.”
The domestic politics in South Korea are trickier. The conservative Mr. Yoon has surprised many with his bold and radical policy of upgrading relations with Tokyo. Anti-Japanese sentiment is still powerful, and Mr. Yoon leads the most pro-Japanese administration since democratization in 1987. Prime Minister Moon Jae-in, who stepped down last year, had perhaps the most anti-Japanese administration.
With protests muted, Mr. Yoon seeks to lock in his pro-Japanese policies before his single term ends in 2027. South Korean political vengeance has put former presidents and officials behind bars, and Mr. Yoon’s parliamentary support could be slashed in the general election in April.
Noting that domestic reforms are stalled in the opposition-controlled National Assembly, Mr. Kim said Mr. Yoon “needs to succeed in the election for him not to become a lame duck for the rest of this term.”
Mr. Biden also faces uncertainties. The Trump administration shook Asian allies by trying to question the value and the expense of U.S. military commitments in the region. The Biden administration has been building alliances, but a successive Trump administration could reverse those priorities.
“If that does happen, it would be catastrophic for the world order and international relations,” said Daniel Pinkston, an international relations professor at Troy University. “Japan, Korea and the U.S. have strong incentives to cooperate in security because of the dynamics of the threat environment.”
A full menu
Given the opportunities and constraints, analysts say, agreements among the three leaders will be intriguing.
“In terms of the complexity and history of NATO, you cannot transfer that template to the Indo-Pacific,” said Alex Neill, a security expert with the Pacific Forum. He said he expects Australia to join any such regional grouping.
Even so, the smorgasbord of issues at Camp David will require working groups to follow up on details.
Mr. Biden and his guests are expected to agree to a regular schedule of trilateral military exercises and increased sharing of missile intelligence and data.
Mr. Yoon has said he is willing to invite Japan into Seoul’s recently negotiated extended deterrence system with the U.S. Mr. Campbell said a hotline for the three countries will be initiated.
Also on the agenda will be support for Ukraine and strategic coordination in the battle with China for influence over Pacific island territories. Neither Japan nor South Korea has agreed to send lethal military aid to Kyiv for its war against Russian invaders.
Japan and especially South Korea have hesitated to commit to Taiwan’s defense in the event of a Chinese attack, but the flashpoint is expected to be discussed.
The three also are expected to talk about sensitive strategic technologies such as artificial intelligence and semiconductors. South Korea is the globe’s largest manufacturer of memory chips, and Japan is a leading supplier of components and manufacturing systems.
The leading trading partner of both Asian nations is China, a complicating factor in U.S. policy. Ironically, Beijing’s lengthening regional shadow is energizing Seoul and Tokyo’s surprising rapprochement. Five years ago, the two capitals were battling over trade, historical grievances and intelligence sharing.
“It is remarkable these discussions are taking place as, as recently as 2018, a Korean destroyer illuminated a Japanese reconnaissance aircraft with its target radar,” said Mr. Neill. “There has clearly been fence-mending, and the unifying factor is the regional security environment.”
• Andrew Salmon can be reached at asalmon@washingtontimes.com.
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